Wednesday, November 08, 2017

One Year Later, A Ray Of Hope


So it's been a year since... well, one of the most horrifying Election nights I'd ever been through.

Last night was an off-year election, when some states hold their own elections for the governorships and legislatures, and also referendums. In particular, Virginia's election is viewed as a bellweather / measuring stick to let the Parties know the mood of the electorate.

If last night's election was any indication, the mood of the electorate is PISSED OFF. At Republicans.

To quote EJ Dionne:

Tuesday’s Democratic sweep obliterated a series of outdated story lines in American politics and opened a new era.
Forget those repetitious tales about some piece of President Trump’s base still sticking with him. It’s now clear, from Virginia and New Jersey to Washington state, Georgia, New York, Connecticut and Maine, that the energy Trump has unleashed among those who loathe him has the potential to realign the country.
In droves, voters rebuked his leadership, his party and the divisive white nationalist politics that was supposed to save Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia Governor’s race, the centerpiece of the GOP catastrophe.
Instead, Ralph Northam, the Democratic lieutenant governor who was much-maligned until election night for being boring, swept to victory on a massive turnout with the largest percentage for a Democrat in Virginia since 1985. On top of this, Democrats picked up at least 15 of the 17 seats they need to win control of the Virginia House of Delegates and were within 200 votes in four other districts. There were comparable Democratic gains in state and local contests elsewhere.
Washington State in particular flipped their Senate chamber to Democratic control, giving Dems both houses and the governorship and clearing the way for a more progressive agenda to pass. Back to Dionne:

Other right-wing narratives died as well. Anti-Obamacare sentiment was once an asset for the Republican Party. Not anymore. On Tuesday in Virginia, the exit poll found that health care was the top issue in the governor’s race, named by close to 40 percent of voters. Health care voters backed Northam by better than 3-to-1. In Maine, voters defied their erratic arch-conservative governor, Paul LePage, and voted for the ACA’s Medicaid expansion.
LePage, a jackass to the bitter end, is swearing to deny the Medicaid expansion, but it's becoming clear that the Republican Party no longer represents the interests or needs of the general voting electorate when it comes to health care coverage.

In a tragic twist, the Republicans were blindsided by the sudden shift in public mood towards gun safety because of recent mass shootings in Vegas and Texas that showed the GOP were firmly in the pocket of the bloodthirsty NRA...
The gun issue was supposed to hurt Democrats whenever it was salient. It was the No. 2 issue in Virginia, after health care. But in an historic rebuke to the National Rifle Association, voters who said they cast ballots on gun policy split narrowly. Sane gun policies are no longer a political third rail. It’s time for fearless opposition to the NRA’s extremism.

What stands out is not so much how Democrats won, although it was interesting to see the uptick in challenging GOP-safe districts and running candidates who were clear rebukes to Republican elitism. What stands out is badly Republicans lost, and why.

Gillespie for example tried to campaign in the trumpian mold: attacking immigrants, defending the Confederate Flag, dismissing every concern voters had about making Obamacare work, etc. He got his ass stomped.

For all the "success" trump had in 2016, Republican strategists forget he actually LOST (62 million to Hillary's 65 million). The only reasons he's sitting in the White House are that he had a broken Electoral College in his favor, he had Russian interference up the wazoo, and the mainstream media was too busy attacking Hillary to where that all depressed Democratic turnout.

None of those factors applied here: the state-level candidates had to play by more consistent rules and they couldn't justify attacking Hillary (although they sure as hell tried). As a result, they couldn't stir the anger and ire of their base voters. They had to stand on unpopular talking points of killing an increasingly popular Obamacare, of doing nothing on gun control, on obsessing over tax cuts to the rich that nobody earning under $70000 a year would support.

Other than a win in a special Congressional election in Utah, the Republicans were beaten in every other election night ballot issue, elective office (well, most of them), and referendum. Outside of Presidential election time cycles of massive shifts (2008, 1980, maybe 1994 midterms) this kind of turnaround is unheard of.

Why this is a clear rebuke of trump is because while he wasn't running for anything, these elections were a response to the ongoing corruption and ineptitude of his administration.

For the Democratic Party, last night was epic: after the debacle of losing the White House in 2016, these wins reflect how popular the Dems' political stances are with the electorate. This is vindication for the #Resistance efforts by outraged anti-trumpian forces getting into the local elections and defeating their Republican rivals. That a transgender woman was able to beat a hardcore homophobic Republican candidate is a perfect example of how Democrats are facing Republicans head on... with positive results.

NOW IS THE TIME WHEN WE DANCE



Things are looking up.

KEEP WORKING, DEMOCRATS. The 2018 Midterms are yours to win if you keep hitting the Republicans on issues they can't defend. Go after them on gun control. Stand up for Obamacare. DANCE MUTHAFUCKAS DANCE LIKE YOU'RE NUMBER 5 AT A CHRISTMAS PLAY.

And for the Love of GOD, America, recognize just what the Republicans are right now: Openly cavorting with racists, sexists, and Nazis; Pushing tax cuts for the rich we don't want NOR need; Trying to kill off healthcare coverage that more Americans realize they DO need; Trying to kill off Americans by letting the gun nuts shoot anybody they want...

This is both postscript to a bad 2016 result and prelude to a 2018 Democratic resurgence. This is still work to be done. Get to it.

1 comment:

dinthebeast said...

This looks a lot like the pissed off women that I was hoping would show up last year.
You want to talk about the politics of grievance, Republicans? Think for a minute about all of the anxiety and lost sleep women have been enduring since Fergus took office: Will their children be able to go to the doctor? (remember that CHIP still hasn't been renewed as well as the aborted attempts at repealing the ACA and its ongoing sabotage, along with the destruction of Medicaid in their budget proposal) and all those parents of autistic children who have fought the system to a standstill in which their child gets most of what they need to grow up functional, who are now staring down the barrel of budget cuts which would erase all of that hard work.
Perhaps there are a lot of people in the electorate who will vote away their own security, but suddenly get all serious when you attack their children.

I really loved the picture of Wendy Gooditis, who beat an incumbent Republican in Virginia's 10th, in her pussy hat at the women's march, but my favorite was Ashley Bennett in New Jersey who saw Republican John Carman's Facebook meme asking whether the women's march would be over in time for the women to cook dinner, and said "I'm going to take your job" and did just that.

There is a wave of Democratic candidates for office right now like we haven't seen in who knows how long. The Virginia Democratic party said that when Fergus was elected it "rained candidates".
I can't stress enough how important this is. We can't win if we don't run. Two years ago, the Democrats only ran 36 candidates in the Virginia State Assembly, and this time they ran 90. And surprise, surprise, surprise, we may end up with control of the chamber.

I keep getting really frustrated when I hear people who should know better arguing about the 2016 primary, and I have repeatedly lost it and said "You know what? Fuck Bernie, and fuck Hillary, this isn't 2016 any more, we have a tsunami of candidates who aren't 70 years old right now and the real question is will you help them win? Or will you tear down their chances with strife, lies, and division? Because if you choose the latter, you're gonna own Fergus' second term, and you're gonna own another decade of gerrymandering that we need twenty point advantages to overcome."

Sometimes I'm not as polite as maybe I should be.

-Doug in Oakland