tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27554065.post250812056514402070..comments2024-03-27T17:52:09.889-04:00Comments on You Might Notice a Trend: What Type of Election IS This, Anyway?Paul Whttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13092023794397583036noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27554065.post-60037398315965035722016-08-14T15:18:17.698-04:002016-08-14T15:18:17.698-04:00I think the house would be a heavy lift, but I'... I think the house would be a heavy lift, but I've read three encouraging things on that subject: First there was an article referenced on a cable news show by some political scientists that said that when an opposing candidate's margin of victory rises to somewhere near 12-15 points, the gerrymander ceases to reliably hold congressional seats for the current majority party. <br /> Second was another article about how the redistricting was done after 2010, saying that the Republicans may have overreached when they drew the districts in order to add to their majority by dividing districts a little closer than necessary so as to make more of them, and in the intervening decade the demographics have shifted in many of them enough to put them in reach of a favorable election for Democrats. <br /> And lastly, there was the internal polling by the Democrats that showed Hillary up by double digits in quite a few Republican held congressional districts. <br /> I don't know whether this is going to be enough for a 2006-style sweep of the congress, but it is starting to seem possible now. One thing is for sure, though, it won't happen unless we make it happen. <br /><br /> -Doug in Oakland dinthebeasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12941071534250216503noreply@blogger.com