tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27554065.post254141869431521455..comments2024-03-27T17:52:09.889-04:00Comments on You Might Notice a Trend: Will The Republican Party Really Split?Paul Whttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13092023794397583036noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27554065.post-56646875285554912642016-03-18T01:50:18.429-04:002016-03-18T01:50:18.429-04:00Don't forget the old saying, "Democrats f...Don't forget the old saying, "Democrats fall in love; Republicans fall in line." This is a strange year, but I still suspect that the number of Republicans who won't vote for Trump if he is the nominee is vanishingly small. We know already that their votes are won through hatred and violence, and the Democrats are never going to beat the Republicans at that game. I'll have to see anything else happen before I really believe it could.Green Eaglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13477132834757467690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27554065.post-31974054206382784992016-03-15T21:18:47.528-04:002016-03-15T21:18:47.528-04:00It's unlikely that a significant third party w...It's unlikely that a significant third party will arise, but even so, there can and likely will be a disastrous and permanent split. Either Trump is robbed of the nomination and bolts to run a Perot-style third candidacy (for revenge, even knowing he can't win) and takes his enraged cult followers with him -- or he gets the nomination and loses massively to Hillary because so many "normal" Republicans won't vote for him, again infuriating his supporters.<br /><br />The divisions are already so bitter that it's hard to see the party recovering.<br /><br />But even if the Republican party is crippled by the split, I don't see a third party arising to take its place. The country is so huge, and the logistics of building the same kind of national infrastructure that the Democrats and Republicans have is so daunting, that it may be as good as impossible. More likely we'd transition to a one-and-a-half party system -- the Republicans would remain competitive in some parts of the country, but not nationally, and for offices like the Presidency and most offices outside the deep South and the Mormon belt, the Democratic primaries would become the <i>de facto</i> elections.<br /><br />If the Republicans eventually are no longer a factor, I suppose the Democrats might split (various scenarios are imaginable, such as a Warren-Sanders wing vs. an economic-centrist wing), and a two-party system would be restored that way.Infidel753https://www.blogger.com/profile/10965786814334886696noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27554065.post-59834111153810453792016-03-15T09:49:37.492-04:002016-03-15T09:49:37.492-04:00I should include in this how deluded either side o...I should include in this how deluded either side of the GOP schism would be foolish if they go splitting into factions. <br /><br />The billionaire deep-pocket backers may have all the money and currently a lot of the connections in halls of power, but they'll find real quick their messages and ability to buy off a new set of followers will be limited, and they'll never get the numbers needed to win elections.<br /><br />And the rage-driven Nativist Populists making up the Trump coalition may have the numbers and the passion, but they don't have all that coherent a platform aside from "get rid of the Other and give me what I was promised". They may well lack the organizational skills to stay afloat as a long-term group, and their factions can split further over personal slights and miscues. They won't win many elections on their own either.<br /><br />So again, there may be an election cycle or two of acrimony, but eventually a new coalition will form. It will depend entirely on if the revised GOP will exile their more embarrassing factions (the Dixiecrats that were brought in during the Southern Strategy) and go back to being more fiscal conservative, economically liberal party they were like during the early 20th Century.Paul Whttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13092023794397583036noreply@blogger.com