Looking for the Small Victories In a By-Election Gone Wrong

Regarding the by-election in the United Kingdom between Nigel "How Much Is 5 Million In British Money" Farage and Count Binface that happened this week...

Sigh. GODDAMMIT CLACTON VOTERS, YOU HAD ONE JOB (via Alexandra Topping with The Guardian (UK)).

Dawn had long broken in the Essex town of Clacton-on-Sea when the results for the byelection came in. After a gruelling count, an atmosphere of deep exhaustion had settled over the room. Even the man with a dustbin on his head looked weary.

As it was declared that Nigel Farage had won, as expected, there was no cheering in the room, which had been boycotted by the Reform UK leader and his supporters; instead there was only an overwhelming sense of futility.

Farage forced the byelection at the start of July in an attempt take control of a narrative tide that had turned against him. After the Guardian revealed he had received a £5m personal gift from Christopher Harborne, a Thailand-based crypto billionaire, in April 2024, he had been dogged by questions about his financial backing. Other revelations followed and questions mounted...

And while the people of Clacton did back Farage again, it was no overwhelming victory. He won 22,239 votes, 63.34% of the vote. Convincing, yes, but significantly short of the 72% won by David Davis in 2008 when he resigned his seat and stood again as a protest over the issue of civil liberties.

With no other mainstream options, the parody candidate Count Binface, was Farage’s nearest competitor, winning 9,455 votes, or one in four of the votes cast. In his “victory speech” posted on X, he noted that this was a 10,000% increase on the 95 votes he managed against Andy Burnham in the Makerfield byelection. “A new dawn has broken, has it not?” he wrote, echoing Tony Blair’s 1997 victory speech. “Literally, because it’s past 6:30 in the morning here in Clacton-on-Sea.”

If there's any good news, it's in the "At least Farage suffered" category. A better measurement of how poorly Farage did this by-election is to look at the results of the more formal election that happened in 2024: In that election Farage secured 21,225 votes, which means he barely garnered a thousand more voters (22,239) who showed up this time around. It's a meager increase in a field where the only legitimate electoral threat was the court jester wearing the trash can. 

The overall vote count in 2024 was 45,958 people showing up, a better turnout than what showed for 2026 with 35,111. Farage did not prove himself a greater draw nor a good incumbent: Indeed, a large chunk of voters refused to show up for what was basically a circus. Without the major parties - Labour, Tories - and the viable third parties like Lib Dems and Greens to give Farage any targets, all he had going for him was a bland, racist campaign against "The Establishment" which exposed the reality that in this by-election he was the Establishment candidate.

The by-election also didn't save Farage from the fate he was facing when he resigned and forced this whole farce. He's still under investigation for his alleged financial misdeeds (from Rowena Mason and Peter Walker, also The Guardian (UK)):

Nigel Farage’s attempt to draw the sting from inquiries into his financial affairs appeared to have backfired on Friday as the standards watchdog reopened its investigation and MPs from all sides condemned the needless byelection.

The Reform UK leader declared victory in the Clacton vote as he was returned with an increased majority and gained more votes than in 2024, saying he had “stuck two fingers up at the entire political establishment”.

However, parliament’s standards commissioner immediately reopened an investigation into whether he should have declared a series of gifts provided to him shortly before the last general election.

These include a £5m personal gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, first revealed by the Guardian, and further financial support from his friend and convicted fraudster George Cottrell.

I'm not a political expert on how elections work in the UK, but I doubt they are going to let Farage resign again and force another by-election so soon. From what I've read, the investigation can lead to his suspension from Parliament (not outright removal or criminal arrest) and if it's longer than 10 days it would trigger a recall petition and if successful another by-election. However, in this scenario he won't control the by-election, he'll be publicly exposed for his sins, and the major parties will jump in with better odds - probably for the Tories - to defeat him then.

It might depend on how severe the investigations against Farage would go, if it's bad enough for the legal system to charge him criminally (given Farage's arrogance and knee-jerk reactions to the matter, he's hiding something worse). He could try to make himself a political martyr and run again for the seat in a borough that's "safe" for him, but Farage has made so many political enemies across the landscape that he'll likely lose.

In sadder news, the world could have had an elected trash bin in the British Parliament. Millions are mourning the lost opportunity. /weeps

Pop Goes a Weasel?

I admit, if there is any kind of crazy political drama, I am there with the popcorn.

via GIPHY

Over in the UK, the drama kicked up a notch with Reform Racist leader Nigel Farage trying to wiggle his way out of a financial scandal by resigning and re-running for his seat (via Daniel Boffey at the Guardian (UK)):

Flanked by Union Jack flags, with a spectacular view of the City of London behind him, Nigel Farage said he had “never been angrier”. In an address that was billed as a “statement on my future in public life”, the leader of Reform UK, the rightwing, anti-immigration party that remains ahead in most national polls but which has been dipping recently, said he would not tolerate any more of it.

“It seems to me that the establishment have now decided that they can’t beat us fairly, so they’ve chosen to use foul means,” Farage said.

He was referring to the Guardian’s revelation that he had received an undeclared £5m gift from the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne as well as the more recent allegations – not denied – that Farage had also taken undeclared funding for his staffing, security and housing from George Cottrell, a convicted criminal and Gloucester-born aristocrat.

Parliament is investigating whether the £5m gift, made to Farage within 12 months of him becoming an MP in summer 2024, could reasonably be thought by others to relate to his “parliamentary or political activities” and was therefore in need of being declared. He denies it. There is pressure for the authorities to look into the Cottrell money too on the same grounds.

But this sort of scrutiny of the evidence by independent professionals was not at all Farage’s preferred solution, it transpired. Instead, Farage was going to resign as the member of parliament for Clacton, a faded seaside town in Essex, and then seek re-election all over again. “I have decided that the people of Clacton will be the judges of my actions,” he said. “This will be a people versus the establishment byelection...”

From what I'm gathering about British politics, Farage's move to force a by-election will delay the criminal investigations but not end them. It's frustrating that there doesn't seem to be a criminal penalty for the financial evasions he's allegedly done, but that seems to be a problem across a lot of republican monarchies...

Should the parliamentary investigation subsequently find against Farage, the worst sanction for him could be another byelection should 10% of the constituency sign a petition seeking one. Would there be an appetite for a second byelection given that he had won the first? Does he limit the damage by forcing the issue now? Perhaps. Much, though, depends on whether Farage, an undoubtedly skilled communicator, can convince the British public, and not just those in Clacton, that this is not just a cynical ploy.

Farage was quick to close down one line of attack by offering to cover the costs of the byelection. But the other political parties have not been slow in calling out Farage’s announcement as what Keir Starmer described as a “desperate stunt”.

“It’s obvious why he is doing it,” the prime minister said. “He is up to his neck in sleaze. Politics should be about improving the lives of millions of people, not about personal gain, not about hiding dodgy donations, and I think the public will see this for exactly what it is.”

A good amount of political punditry is looking at Farage's actions as a ploy to avoid accountability. There's also the factor of how Farage seems eager to use this by-election to "debate" his opponents to make them look bad not just in that district but at the national level.

In response, it's looking like the major parties are avoiding that trap, refusing to run other candidates and force Farage to stand alone at the podium forced to answer questions about his financials instead of railing against immigrants (again). 

The governing Labour party, the Conservative official opposition and other rival parties, including the Lib Dems and Restore, the party further to Reform’s right, which was founded by Rupert Lowe MP, one of Reform’s MPs until a nasty falling out with Farage, have all ruled out standing in the byelection.

“We are not going to participate in a Reform-sponsored media circus over the summer months that is designed to puff up Farage’s ego and deflect away from wholly fair questions over why he has concealed such vast and irregular financial donations,” said Lowe.

Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, said his party was “calling on all parties to stand aside and refuse to give oxygen to Farage’s vanity project”. The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, said her party would not participate in any byelection triggered as a result of “the standards investigation into Nigel Farage’s fishy finances”.

It doesn't give Farage much of an opportunity to punch at other parties if he's up there alone. Well, almost alone.

In a statement on Tuesday afternoon, the comedian Jon Harvey, also known as Count Binface, offered his candidacy as a unifying force. “Labour, Tories, Lib Dems and Greens: I demand you stand down in Clacton,” Count Binface wrote. “I will be a unity candidate and pledge to build at least one affordable house. Nigel Farage says he wants The People versus the Establishment. So be it. Leave him to me.”

It should be noted that Farage only won Clacton in 2024 with 46 percent, a bit below a solid majority of voters. It should also be noted that election cycle displayed a lot of anger towards the Conversative Tories who had been in power for almost 14 years, mismanaging the United Kingdom with failed austerity measures as well as bolluxing up Brexit. There is a serious question if Farage's win percentage came from a lot of angry Tory voters punishing their party back then, and if they'll be in the mood to support Farage now he's had a year of his own failures to perform to disillusion them.

Checking the website MPDataUK, their summary lists him as of today (July 8th) casting "169 votes from 537 eligible divisions, representing a participation rate of 31.47%, and ranks last among Reform UK MPs in voting participation." He shows up more often for debates, but still ranks (570th of 650 MPs) in the bottom 10 percent for participation. He's rarely shown up for the Q&As - the open floor debates where the opposition party can rip into the PM, and get ripped in return - and I don't know if Parliament has a committee breakdown like the US Congress but I'm sure Farage doesn't show up for those either.

Farage is clearly a "leader" who enjoys the perks of office but refuses to do the actual JOB.

As much as Clacton being a "safe" district, Farage is running a high risk of exposing himself - especially these financial scandals - at the worst possible time.

He's also running the risk of the one thing a national-level party leader has to avoid: the risk of getting humiliated. If it's just a campaign between Farage and Count Binface... well, Binface as a relatively silly candidate can cause genuine harm. Not only by avoiding the debates that Farage would want - because Binface isn't representing the major parties, Farage can't hammer him as an "Establishment" figure - but by mocking Farage on the debates that Farage can't answer back without revealing his hypocrisy.

The recent tradition in the UK for Raving Looney candidates - under the general term of "novelty" or "joke" candidates - can arguably trace their origins back to a proud monarchial tradition of the Court Jester. Before democracies and republics rose up to challenge unitary rule of an elite, the courts would employ house entertainers granted the privilege to perform and mock about current events and personages without punishment (it was viewed as a means of keeping the mighty humbled). As the need for jesters declined, the importance of outside critics rose to where we see newspaper cartoonists and stand-up comedians fulfilling the jester's privilege for the citizenry to enjoy.

Count Binface - along with the other Looneys - is the direct descendant of the jester. (This might explain why few novelty candidates - well, except for the Libertarians - ever appear in US elections, as we've been a democratic republican system from the beginning: Our political commentary comes through the history of minstrels and stand-ups to this day. I digress) As a jester on the stage next to Farage, Binface has the opportunity to directly mock and satirize someone who is serious about his anti-immigrant, anti-EU, anti-"nice to people" stances.

This is Great Britain, sir. As much as they have stiff upper lips and "Keep Calm And Carry On" as their mantras, they also treat sarcasm as a deadly weapon in that country.

Farage might not even survive.

Prepare for Count Binface. The kingdom - nay, the world - awaits.

Four for the Fourth 2024: And Farmer George Thought HE Had it Bad on His 4th of July...

This will be a 4th Of July long remembered in Great Britain.

The United Kingdom held their parliamentary elections today, and it turned into a "bloodbath" for the ruling Conservative Party projected to suffer their worst defeat in over two centuries (via Brian Wheeler at BBC News):

Labour is set to win a general election landslide with a majority of 170, according to an exit poll for the BBC, ITV and Sky.

If the forecast is accurate, Sir Keir Starmer will become prime minister with 410 Labour MPs – just short of Tony Blair's 1997 total.

The Conservatives are predicted to slump to 131 MPs, their lowest number ever...

The exit poll, overseen by Sir John Curtice and a team of statisticians, is based on data from voters at about 130 polling stations in England, Scotland and Wales. The poll does not cover Northern Ireland.

At the past five general elections, the exit poll has been accurate to within a range of 1.5 and 7.5 seats...

If the exit poll is correct it will be a remarkable turnaround for the Labour Party, which had its worst post-war election result in 2019, when the Conservatives under Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority.

The Conservatives may avoid the wipe-out predicted by some opinion polls but they are still set for the worst result in the party's history, losing 241 MPs - a devastating blow after 14 years in government...

I'm not sure how the Tories are going to convince themselves they know what they're doing after a massive shift in voter support like this. They had picked up a major victory in 2019 gaining an 80-seat majority, and by the next election are losing 170 seats. A comparable situation would be like the House Republicans getting their 6-seat majority in 2022 only to have the Democrats flip it to a 60 seat majority in 2024 (one hopes).

I still have not heard any results for the election most watched this night: the turnout between Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Count Binface (okay, there's a few other party candidates as well). Sunak's polling numbers were low enough that he's facing a historic first: First Prime Minister to lose his seat in an election. Most of those predecessors tended to be in safe districts, but in this election cycle almost none of the Conservative seats were safe. (Update: Sunak was able to win his seat, alas. Dammit, Richmond and Northallerton! A Raving Looney candidate was right there! You had one job!)

That's how bad the Tories had performed over the past five years to lose so much support.

It'll take some time for the actual ballots to get counted, but even if the projections are off by their statistical norms, Labour has still won a decisive turnout.

Next will be a question of how Labour is going to fix all the damage - the austerity economics getting out of the Great Recession, the various scandals over their tenure, and of course Brexit - this inept, corrupt Tory leadership has done since 2010.

Happy 4th of July, Brits!

Hope you saved some of the fireworks from Bonfire Night.

Here's George III taking it like a champ in Hamilton: