For all the good news about the polling predicting a Democratic Blue Wave disrupting trump's plans for empire this 2026, there remains genuine concern that trump and his Far Right Republican allies will do whatever they can to deny, disrupt, or destroy the actual midterm elections.
Remember what Wilhoit observed: Conservatives believe "There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect." Conservatives view themselves - and only themselves - as the In-Group that must be protected at all costs. When the conservative ideologues dispersed across both major parties decided by the 1980s to make themselves all Republicans, that was when the modern Republican Party came to believe only THEY were the legitimate party and that every Democratic win were "stolen" or fraudulent.
For all of trump's whining and gaslighting about "stolen" ballots or acts of mass voter fraud, it didn't all start with him: he's co-opted a long-standing narrative from the Far Right about voter fraud that's been pursued for decades (SEE Kris Kobach's entire political career). No matter if a vast majority of actual voters across the United States - a good number of them may even be angry Republican voters betrayed by their own party - will turn out for Democratic candidates this November: Republicans will refuse to accept those results (because in their minds, anyone who votes for Democrats are not REAL Americans).
Because we've seen it before in 2020.
The most obvious attack that trump and the Republicans - especially in the Red states seeing cracks in their one-party rule like Texas and Florida - will attempt is to fight the results in the courtrooms, claiming massive fraud without, you know, actually proving that fraud... again, what we saw in 2020. Just like in 2020, the courts are going to insist on proof instead of any false promises of "oh we'll find it, trust us" like trump's lawyers argued then and have been arguing in a lot of other court cases during this second administration. It's gaslighting that works on the wingnut media outlets but never convinces the judges, and it's an attack strategy doomed to fail.
One possible attack is trump threatening to send ICE and other federal agents to precincts on Election Day to "arrest all illegal voters." Again, there's no evidence of massive voter fraud being committed by non-citizens: This is trump and his racist lackeys fearmongering over immigrants. There's also the threat of sending the FBI and other agencies to the county-level elections offices (shades of the Brooks Brothers riot) to disrupt or even seize the ballots to prevent the counts.
This all sounds scary and it should. This is also something that local activists at the state, county, and city levels are prepared to fight; because it is against the law to send armed federal agents to election sites. Lawsuits are already getting filed. trump will likely run into the same angry judges who aren't happy about getting lied to about "voter fraud" in the first place, and there's no compelling argument trump and his thugs can provide to change legal minds.
I'm seeing arguments that in spite of the actual election results - if everything turns for the Democrats and there's a massive Blue Wave at both the state and congressional levels - there's the risk of Republicans still in charge at the state level - the elections officials, the Secretaries of State, the state Attorney Generals (many of them elected Republicans unhappy in this scenario of getting voted out of power) - simply refusing to certify the results. It was the thing trump tried to force on January 6th - stopping Congress from certifying the Electoral count going to Biden - could happen on January 3rd when Congress verifies their own election results, and this could be a legitimate concern.
Derek Muller at Election Law Blog did a big article about the fears over certification blocks, and he's adamant there's little trump or the Republicans could do to stop it:
Even these calls, however, assume that the majority party is exerting control over minority delegations. That is, if a delegation currently controls a chamber, it can refuse to seat a member or a number of members in a kind of “hardball” move (with varying degrees of likelihood of success, left for another day).
That, however, is very different in kind from concern that the minority party could become the majority through some kind of “one weird trick” approach. It is that concern that is the angst of the fearmongering chronicled seriatim above.
Now, there are a range of nuanced views on how, precisely, a minority in Congress would go about doing this across these pieces. I’ll operate from the assumption that it would be Republicans denying Democrats in the House a majority, although occasional reporters I’ve spoken with worry about Democrats refusing to seat Missouri’s delegation over unlawful maps, or some Senate scenarios, which are less complicated because the Senate is a continuing body. And I’ll truck through scenarios pretty quickly.
1. As Ned has pointed out repeatedly, often on deaf ears, the House is not a continuing body. Mike Johnson ceases to be Speaker at noon on January 3. He holds no power. Whatever the House has done or decided before that is cannot bind the incoming House, including any purported findings regarding the validity of elections. It is a brand new House that will adjudicate all matters afresh.
2. If a minority of Republicans object to the seating of some Democrats on January 3, it would only happen after the Speaker’s election (presumably, Hakeem Jeffries). The more recent traditional mechanism is a “stand aside” mechanism, where members whose seats are in dispute stand aside while the remaining putative members vote on whether to seat them. That practice does not have an ironclad precedent, and the Speaker presiding over that vote may well permit the disputed members to vote on their own seating, and a majority of the body would likewise approve of that rule change. The point being, there is a ready way for the majority to thwart an effort by the minority to become the majority.
3. The most sophisticated disaster porn asks about replacing the clerk of the House on the eve of January 3, and the new clerk refusing to recognize the credentials of incoming Democrats, so that Republicans could choose a Speaker and organize the House as if they were in the majority. Ned shares good thoughts from Matt Seligman on this front.
It is worth emphasizing the clerk is not a member of the House, so the political question doctrine does not apply to the clerk’s actions in the event the judiciary is asked to intervene. But more to the point, these actions have happened before, and they’ve not been successful...
As I’ve told many reporters over the last two years on this topic, you can throw sand in the gears, but “stealing the House” is another matter entirely. And the wider the margins (both in terms of the number of votes separating the winner from a contestant, and the number of seats the House turns on), the less likely such scenarios are to occur (I have admittedly quipped that if it’s 217-217 in the House with a tight contest in the 435th race, all bets are off.)...
while it’s possible for a majority to subvert a minority (as Democrats did to Republicans in 1985), it is essentially impossible for the minority (note: which the Republicans would be after a Blue Wave election) to subvert the majority, as the chronicle above should help demonstrate.
One could argue that this moment is different, but that’s really just the assumed premise of this kind of analysis.
In short, most scenarios get basic facts or law wrong, and the most complicated scenarios require a unique convergence of factors that have never existed, a unique level of coordination that seems very unlikely, docile political opposition, and a judiciary willing to acquiesce to all these moves–and all working simultaneously. Even then, most of these scenarios could, at most, delay some organization of the House by a matter of hours or days.
As for blocking certification at the state levels, there are already laws in place requiring county and state officials to certify results once all the counting is done and verified (this is why fears that trump and his thugs will simply seize the ballots to prevent certification. Again, there are laws blocking them from attempting that). No matter what happens, if a state Attorney General or Sec of State refuses to do their duty, the courts are likely to compel them one way or another.
This all could lead to something that's outside the purview of law, and that's trump simply ignoring every law and pulling a political coup (technically an autogolpe, but everyone understands what a coup means). This is where things really get interesting.
In spite of trump's belief - and the Supreme Court's recent rulings to give the presidency broad overreaching powers - there are still limits to what a president can do even under national emergencies. Rick Hasan also at the Election Law Blog has this to say:
One of the most alarming threats to the upcoming midterm elections is the possibility that the president will declare a national emergency to try to postpone, cancel, or seize control of the midterms, a tactic that strongman leaders around the world have used to evade electoral accountability. Yet, any claim by the administration that a national security threat allows the president to unilaterally nationalize elections is not based in legal reality and would be an unprecedented attempt in U.S. history to interfere in elections and prevent citizens from voting.
As the Center for American Progress has detailed, no constitutional provisions, emergency powers, statutes, executive orders, Supreme Court precedents, or other sources lawfully delegate to the president any power to change election-related laws. This is true even in the face of a national security threat or an emergency—including attempted foreign interference in elections. The founders wrote the Constitution to prevent presidents from becoming kings, and they expressly gave states the power to administer federal elections, with Congress having authority to set national guidelines when needed. Exercising their clear authority, states have repeatedly demonstrated that they are able to conduct free and fair elections, even under emergencies and challenging circumstances such as the Civil War, both world wars, the COVID-19 pandemic, and—as discussed below—previous attempts at foreign interference...
This has come up before: Our nation faced legitimate national emergencies - armed insurrection by the slave-holding states, world wars, even the Korean and Vietnam wars where we had the presidency itself change hands between parties - and nobody in high office - even President Lincoln in 1862 when pro-slavery Democrats were poised to take control of the House - ever tried to declare national emergencies to disrupt or delay the elections.
For trump to declare a national emergency over the midterm results would, once again, require facing legal challenges in court that trump and his lawyers can't win. This is when trump's last resort - ordering armed troops (either National Guards units from Republican-controlled states, or the actual military under Secretary of Idiocy Hegseth) could take place.
In that situation, trump would have to argue that the Insurrection Act - a law he violated in 2021 and got away with - applies to the midterms and use it to override the Posse Comitatus Act to deploy the military. As John May over at the Justia Verdict website notes:
Sections 251 through 255 of Title 10 of the United States Code, usually referred to as the Insurrection Act, implement the President’s constitutional authority to call forth “the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel invasions.” Section 253 has two parts. The first allows the President to use the military in a state to suppress “any insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination, or conspiracy” that “so hinders the execution of the laws” that any portion of the state’s inhabitants are deprived of a constitutional right and state authorities are unable or unwilling to protect that right. The second permits the President to deploy troops to suppress the same conduct when it “opposes or obstructs the execution of the laws of the United States or impedes the course of justice under those laws.”
Many authorities believe that these sections can only be invoked in very limited circumstances. A 1964 U.S. Justice Department Memorandum states that the law may only be invoked in three circumstances: (1) when a state requests help in putting down an insurrection; (2) when deployment is needed to enforce a federal court order; or (3) when “state and local law enforcement have completely broken down.” The circumstances posited by this paper fit well within the confines of the last scenario.
That all depends on what trump can prove, not gaslight about. trump and his Republican allies could argue the midterm results are part of a "conspiracy" "hindering the execution of the laws" that would be insurrection... but it would be trump and those Republicans doing the actual hindering. The execution of laws are already in place to count and certify votes, and the Democrats aren't the ones interfering with that. It would be a question of how the Republicans would pull that argument (most likely by lying their asses off about mass voter fraud again).
It could be a situation for example in Texas where the Democrats win a plurality of US House districts, as well as state legislative offices that breaks the stranglehold the Republicans have over the last two decades, as well as winning the Governor and Attorney General offices (at which point corrupt bastards like Ken Paxton are shit out of luck). The sitting Republican governor, Greg Abbott, could apply Circumstance (1) asking trump to "put down" the Democrats Abbott would accuse of bringing in illegals to vote and "inciting insurrection".
Depending on how quickly the federal courts could shut that down, even if they could should and would, there's still a risk trump will ignore the courts and proceed with declaring any Democratic win an act of insurrection and start arresting people using ICE - or worst the military - to do so. THIS becomes the true nightmare scenario. It might explain why trump doesn't even seem bothered by how the midterms turn out: Not because he's convinced Republicans will win, it's because trump's convinced he can shut everything down by Executive dictate and force election results the Republicans didn't earn.
Fearing that result, however, doesn't do anyone any good. Granted it's a worst-case scenario, and it depends on if the Far Right conservatives are that desperate to hold onto power that they would risk open civil war. It's better to fight the battles now, vote as best you can, side with the Democrats to drive the corrupt Republicans out of office through legal means, and get ready to fight trump and his horde for the soul and future of America.
Just be ready for anything. Stay safe.
