Dark Days for Florida in 2022

I woke up to a gray day.

Not only because of an incoming Hurricane in mid-November - remember when hurricane seasons ended in October? Thanks to climate change, not anymore! - making it a dreary rainy day.

It was a gray dreary day because here in Florida for the 2022 midterms, I woke up to news that Republican Governor Ron DeSantis - that racist, immigrant-bashing, blasphemous moran - not just won re-election but he won in a blow-out by nearly double digits over Charlie Crist.

There was a similar result with Marco Rubio - that wet noodle of a Senator who barely shows up and only for television interviews - winning big against Val Demings for the U.S. Senator seat.

It was basically a massive blowout statewide in Florida for Republicans, while at the national level the GOP suffered with poor results, failing to flip the Senate (so far, some states are undecided but the Democratic incumbents are holding on) and barely winning the U.S. House despite poll predictions having them win 25-plus seats to wreak havoc on President Biden's hopes.

So today was me sitting around waiting for a hurricane to hit muttering to myself "What the hell happened?"

Previous midterm elections - with Florida's Governor races as part of the ballots - were never this bad for Democrats. In 2018, DeSantis eked out a win over Andrew Gillum with 4.07 million over 4.04 million votes. In 2014, Rick Scott won against Charlie Crist with 2.86 million votes over 2.8 million.

But this time, 2022 with DeSantis facing Crist who was running his second chance as a Democrat (Crist was a Republican Governor 2006-2010 but switched parties when he lost favor with a growing extremist GOP), the results were 4.6 million for DeSantis and 3.1 million for Crist. The voter turnout for the Senate race was pretty much the same: Rubio at 4.6 million and Demings at 3.1 million. 

Democrats just... lost over a million Florida voters somewhere. In a midterms where Democratic voter turnout saw moderate or better gains across most of the nation. What the hell happened?

In my darkest, angriest mindset, I'm going to the conspiracy angle of hard voter suppression happening. Republicans didn't gain voters all that much between 2018 to 2022, but the Democrats obviously lost them. I would be screaming about somebody somewhere blocking Democratic voters in likely Blue districts... except there's been no reports of that on social media or regular media.

Hey, if QAnon can run around screaming "stolen elections," I have a right to scream the same thing. It's just... dammit, where's the evidence of it? Alas.

The only other rational explanation was voter disinterest. All those Democratic voters just... refused to vote for the party this year. There's two reasons why that could be the culprit.

One of the bigger voter suppression stunts DeSantis pulled this election cycle was aggressively redoing the U.S. Congressional districts with extreme Republican-friendly gerrymandering. It was so blatantly partisan a gerrymander it ought to have been voted down by even the Republican legislature, or at least stricken down by the courts. And yet, nobody fought it.

Worse, the Florida Democratic party failed to challenge for every district in spite of that gerrymandering. Several districts had no Democratic congressional candidate, increasing the voter disinterest to turn out for the other important races for Governor and Senator.

Study after study shows that extreme partisan gerrymandering affects voter turnout. When DeSantis redid the Congressional map, he not only improved the odds of state Republicans winning extra U.S. House seats, he also improved his own odds to win re-election by depressed Democratic turnout.

The second reason for the drop in Democratic voter turnout? There had been complaints before - and this time around seemed to prove it - that the Democratic voting base just didn't like or trust Charlie Crist. Due to the fact he used to be Republican, the fact he still stood as a more Centrist moderate candidate to a base that would prefer progressives, and the fact he just didn't seem to reach more people this time around all hurt the overall ticket. How this affected Val Demings - who had a better rapport with the Democratic base, and should have seen better results - still doesn't make sense outside of the anti-Crist factions just refusing to show up at all.

And for all the evidence that the Democratic Party is failing to reach Hispanic voters - especially here in Florida, where the Cuban and Puerto Rican voting blocs are heavily social conservatives - I don't think that is a major reason for the missing voters from 2018: If the Hispanics were flipping parties, we'd be seeing an increase in Republican turnout this 2022 over 2018. Still, the failure by the Democratic Party at both the state and national level to appeal better to Latino voters is a major setback that the Dems have to address.

My mood is not lightened by the reports of Democratic gains elsewhere, especially in Midwest states where Dems gained control of state legislatures in Michigan and Minnesota. There may be a chance that the Democrats keep control of the Senate - only with gaining one extra seat, which may not be enough to break the filibuster/cloture stranglehold - but the Republicans are about to gain control of the House (due in strong part to DeSantis' gerrymandering, damn him). The reports are that the GOP will have a slim lead in the House, but that a schism between more hardcore wingnut factions could undercut the fight for Speakership. I doubt it: Republicans will unite even if it's behind a spineless cur like McCarthy if there's a chance to get their Cruelty agenda passed.

So here I sit, waiting for another storm to hit Florida, praying that at least this hurricane can well hit Mar-A-Lago like a bullseye and wash it all into the sea.

I've been raging and fuming ever since 2010, ever since sanity failed my state when the Republican voters eagerly put into office a documented Medicare Fraud. It's only gotten worse since then: The cruelty, the failures of leadership, all to "own the libs" even as the state literally falls apart bit by bit, disaster by disaster.

I'd like to move away, I'm at that point of giving up on the state I've lived almost my whole life. But I'm too old to go job-hunting across states anymore, and damn it all the rent is too damned high.

Gods help us.

On the Florida Front, Shifting Candidates (w/ Update)

(Update below)
Just to keep you all informed of the current situation on the ground here.

The US Senate race in Florida is changing as one Republican candidate drops out to re-apply for the Congressional district he was leaving... in order to make room for Rubio to re-apply for the Senate seat he was vacating in order to run for President (state laws prohibit a candidate from running for two separate seats on one ballot).

To the Tampa Bay Times article!

The move sets up what could be an epic contest between Republican-turned-Democrat and former Gov. Charlie Crist, who is seeking the seat. After court-ordered redistricting, Jolly's seat now technically leans further toward the Democrats, though Jolly said Friday that a focus on local issues and solutions instead of partisan posturing would help him win over skeptics.

The switch also gets Jolly out of the way of incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio, who is poised to run for re-election after long saying he would not. Jolly had declared weeks ago that he expected Rubio to reverse course and run for the Senate, and he made clear he would not run against Rubio under any circumstance.

Four other Republicans are also running in the race to replace Rubio, but none has surged to the forefront, causing national Republicans to become increasingly worried that none can win in November. That has prompted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and others to publicly call on Rubio to run again for the Senate...

Rubio has kind of burned a few bridges during his Presidential campaign: Back in October he complained about the work - which was laughable because he was one of the most tardy Senators in office - and had blown off his responsibilities to the job in his constant setting up for this year's Presidential run. It would be interesting to see if he get back in (likely), which still depends on him filing by June 24. It shouldn't be too hard for him to get the signatures and funding in.

If Rubio returns, he's likely to win the Republican primary: With Jolly out, it's down to four lesser-known figures (two of whom might drop to avoid confronting Rubio) and it's with a state-wide party struggling to find any kind of salvation in the wake of Trump's bulldozing through here last March.

The thing will be the general election against the Democratic candidate, which is shaping up to be either Pat Murphy or Alan Grayson... likely to be Murphy, because Grayson's grand-standing and potential scandal is wearing out its welcome among Democratic ranks.

Just saying: both elections are key. Voters need to turn out for the Democrats both for the Senate race - make Rubio regret his absences and failures as a Senator, and turn the Senate back over to Dem control - and the House race - this is a good opportunity for Florida Dems to secure more Representatives, and get Crist to serve as a solid advocate for South Pinellas County - as part of an overall campaign to make Florida Blue.

Get the vote out, Florida Democrats. The congressional/state primary is in August, just around the corner... Every election matters, people!

Update 6/18: Just as I wrote this, it seemed the Atlantic did a report on Jolly's situation going back to run for the Congressional seat instead of the Senate. Jolly might not have anyone backing him up:

Jolly is an incumbent and by all accounts has the best shot against Charlie Crist, the former Florida governor (and ex-Republican) who won the Democratic nomination in his latest bid for a political comeback. A statement that does not even cheer his decision, much less commit support, is remarkable...

The committee helped Jolly win a tough special-election race in early 2014, a victory that presaged the GOP’s national gains in November of that year. But a rift emerged in April after 60 Minutes featured Jolly in a profile about his effort to pass legislation that would bar members of Congress from directly soliciting campaign donations. In an interview on the program, Jolly said that right after he was elected, a member of the party leadership sat him down and told him that his “first responsibility” as a new congressman was to raise $18,000 a day to get reelected.

The NRCC denied the meeting took place, and it was particularly angry that CBS was able to get a hidden camera into its “call center” near the Capitol where members dial for dollars. The 60 Minutes piece portrayed Jolly in a glowing light as a political reformer fighting against the odds. But fellow Republicans viewed his participation as a self-serving betrayal of the party and a barely disguised bid to boost his standing in a Senate race in which he was struggling to gain traction—no doubt in part due to poor fund-raising. Even more galling to Republicans was the insinuation that Jolly, a former congressional staffer and lobbyist, didn’t know what he was getting into when he arrived in Congress...

You see, the fund-raisers don't mind if you campaign every day to raise money for them. 'Cause it's all about the money. They'll get mighty pissed if you raise a stink about it instead.

I doubt Jolly's not a real reformer, though. I'm guessing he just didn't want to spend time dialing for donations, time better spent playing Call of Duty: Fake Soldier Sim on his Playstation.

Florida 2014 Election: Sample Ballots and Reminder (UPDATE)

Just got mine in the mail from the County Elections office.  (UPDATE) If you need a Sample Ballot for your county, PLEASE visit the state map listing the county Elections' offices.  Each site should have a ballot on display for you to view.

Some of you may be voting by mail.  Some of you should plan ahead and vote during the EARLY VOTING cycle between October 20th to November 1st.  Some may be traditionalists and wait until the Day itself, first Tuesday in November which is November 4th.

The key thing is to VOTE.  GET THE VOTE OUT FLORIDA!  I don't wanna see 39 percent or 42 percent turnout this midterms.  I wanna see 76 percent!  I WANNA SEE 90 PERCENT TURNOUT PEOPLE.  Your vote, your voice, your POWER.  VOTE DAMMIT.

But, you might say to the computer screen, I don't know what to vote on!

Well, then, glad you asked, lemme help you out here.  Two basic rules:
1) FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DON'T VOTE REPUBLICAN and
2) FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DON'T VOTE FOR THAT DAMN CROOK RICK SCOTT.

That doesn't help us much, Mr. Blogger you say can you speel it out for us?

Sigh.  Fine.  Let's go through the ballot topics.  Federal first:

1) There is no Senate seat contested (per the 2/3 cycle), so wait until 2016 to vote Marco Rubio out.
2) Any Congressional district you are in that has a Republican candidate and a Democratic candidate, VOTE DEMOCRAT.  Any district you are in that has a Republican candidate and a Libertarian candidate, vote for a valid Write-In Candidate.  Any district where there's a Republican and a No-Party-Affiliate candidate only, vote for the NPA (unless you know the NPA personally as an -sshole, in which case sue the state for emotional damages).  Any district where there's a Republican candidate unchallenged, curse the Old Gods and The New and volunteer to campaign next election on the ballot because dammit you gotta vote that crooked Bent-For-Destruction GOP out of power.

If you're in District 9, vote Alan Grayson.  District 10, vote Alan Cohn.  District 17, vote Will Bronson.  District 3, vote Marihelen Wheeler.  District 12... District 12... BILIRAKIS IS RUNNING UNOPPOSED?!?!  DAMMIT DEMOCRATS, YOU COWARDS.  Whadda ya gonna do, let Bilirakis sit there in office until he retires to let his son inherit the seat the same way Gus inherited it from Mike?!  30-plus years of the same family running a little fiefdom in North Pinellas/West Pasco?!  DAMMIT.

Anyway, any seat where there's a Democrat and a Republican, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD VOTE DEMOCRAT.  Let Gus represent the GOP all on his loneso... whadda ya mean there's other unchallenged Republican seats?!  /headdesk

Grrrr.

Next up, the Governor and state official races:

1) VOTE CHARLIE CRIST for governor.  He did a decent job as governor before (made efforts to protect the environment, played fair with the electorate, vetoed a bad and unpopular education bill), not a partisan hack like Scott nor a pocket-lining greedhead like Scott.
2) For Attorney General, vote George Sheldon.  Bondi has been a disaster as AG for Florida: pursuing bad anti-gay and anti-voter court rulings, failing to go after utilities for unfair price hikes, and refusing to pursue many of the conflicts-of-interest cases floating around our state government.  She's been Scott's partner in crime than representing the people's interests.  Sheldon can and should go after the utilities above anything else and will protect the rights of voters and the citizenry over the needs of any partisan in office.
3) For Chief Financial Officer... aaaaaaaauuugggggghhhhhh.  There's a Republican and a Democrat on the ballot, but the papers are complaining about the Democratic Will Rankin's lackluster campaigning and are noting that the Republican Jeff Atwater has actually done an honest job of things in Tallahassee.  Don't do this to me, Florida Dems...
4) For Agricultural Commissioner (which also covers consumer services for some reason)... dammit.  Democrats have another lackluster guy in Thad Hamilton running against Republican Adam Putnam who again has a solid record per the local papers.  Thing is... dammit dammit dammit, cannot vote for ANY Republican at any level of office, it just encourages the party wingnuts to be worse...  On the bright side, the Agriculture slot has a Write-In ballot space.  Find a viable write-in candidate and file a protest vote!

Now for the State legislative offices, both Senate and House:
1) What part of FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DON'T VOTE REPUBLICAN have you not noticed yet?
2) For the Senate seats, there are almost no challenged seats, so there's few if any choices.  Of the 20 seats for election, there are only 5 challenges, meaning two Democrats and 13 Republicans are returning to Tall Hassle unopposed (!).  If there are ANY of those seats with a Write-In ballot choice, I recommend you fill in that Write-In as a protest vote against this ridiculous incumbency.
3) For the House seats, again there are few (less than 30 percent of them) if any challenged seats.  Again this is an insult to the voters that our state-level parties (especially the Democrats) are COWARDS when it comes to forcing incumbents to answer for their legislative sins.  Again, if there are ANY seats with a Write-In ballot choice, fill in the Write-In ballot as a protest vote and slap some fear into both parties.

For the Judicial Retention votes:

Remember last election, Rick "No Ethics" Scott and his buddies tried to actively vote out judges in order to fill those vacancies with his pro-Scott cronies.  It was the first time ever there was a partisan effort against the judges.  As long as Scott is in office, VOTE TO KEEP THE JUDGES (It helps that none of them up for vote have been embarrassments or crooked on the bench).

For the State Amendments on the ballot:

As I wrote earlier, we're down to three so it keeps it short and simple.
VOTE YES ON 1 to protect our wetlands and environment and water supply.
VOTE YES ON 2 to allow for medicinal marijuana and provide an end to the disastrous War on Drugs.
VOTE NO ON 3 to stop Rick Scott from preemptively packing the state courts with his cronies.

For any county-level or city-level tax referendums (referenda? damn my Latin which plural form fits...):

Vote YES on any tax hike program because F-CK YOU Grover Norquist.  Granted, this is more a knee-jerk reaction to the tax-cutting frauds dominating our discourse, but dammit too many of our public services at the county level are getting slashed and burnt here.  Okay, I'll relent: if the tax hike in question is a blatant attempt at lining someone's (a rich corporation) pockets, then don't vote for it.  But if it's for needed social services, please vote YES.

I think there's a rail funding program for Pinellas County on the ballot.  DEFINITELY VOTE YES on Greenlight, Pinellas County: our metro areas need alternative transit options.

Also, for the Pasco County Mosquito Control Board?   Seat Two has four candidates and I don't know a single one of 'em.  You're gonna have to vote for who you know, Pasco County.  (Update 10/25/14: there have been two people commenting that they found my article trying to figure out who to vote to be their Mosquito Hunter Expert, upset I didn't make a recommendation.  So I did some research to dig up any kind of newspaper list, and so far the Tampa Bay Times Recommends list... doesn't make one either!  Sorry, folks, you're gonna have to ask around about which of the four - Matthew "Skeeter" (?) Abbott, Bill Law, Niko Tzoumas, or Jerry Wells - to pick...)

Okay, voters reading this blog, that should help you make your informed decisions on Election Day/Early Voting/Mail-in Balloting.

GO VOTE.  Tell your friends to vote.  Tell your family to vote.  Tell your co-workers to vote.  If your co-workers say they can't vote during the workday, encourage your co-workers to vote on the weekend (including a Sunday October 26th!) during the Early Voting period.

AND FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DON'T VOTE REPUBLICAN.

October Notes from Florida 2014

It's a busy month but let's make a few things clear:

1) Here in Florida this is a huge election.  We've got three key state amendments to vote on: voting FOR Amendment One to protect our ecosystems, voting FOR Amendment Two to legalize medical marijuana, voting AGAINST Amendment Three to stop governors from packing the state courts even years before there's any vacancies.

2) We've also got key elections in the state executive branch, especially Attorney General (vote FOR George Sheldon) and Governor (FOR THE LOVE OF GOD VOTE FOR CHARLIE CRIST!  Get Rick "No Ethics" Scott out of there!)

3) We need massive voter turnout in EVERY part of the state to overcome the hideous distortions of gerrymandering that has rigged our electoral system to favor the cheaters.

4) I just want to repeat this: GET RICK "MEDICARE FRAUD" SCOTT OUT OF THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE BEFORE HE CAUSES MORE DAMAGE.

5) That all said, the deadline to register to vote in Florida is October 6th, this Tuesday.  If you have changed your address since you last registered, or you need to make sure you are registered, get a form filled out - most county and city offices such as your local library should have forms - and sent it before this Tuesday!  It is vital and important we get as many people registered as possible.

6) And then it is VERY VITAL AND IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE TO VOTE.

We WILL have Early Election Balloting available.  Early voting should run from October 20th to November 1st.  AND voting is available on Saturdays and Sunday of those weeks.  Early voting can happen in any designated place in your residing county.

The set Election Day is always the first Tuesday of November: this year it's November 4th.  Voting starts at 7:00 AM in Florida and are set to close at 7:00 PM (FACT: if you are in line to vote before 7:00 PM occurs, the precinct must remain open to allow you the right to vote.  PLEASE STAY IN LINE WHEN YOU GET THERE).  For the general election, you MUST go to the exact precinct where you live (your Voter ID card MUST give you the street address where that precinct is).

If you know you are going to be out of town during the Early election and General election days, you CAN sign up for a mail-in Absentee ballot.  Follow the Supervisor of Elections link to your county office to register for the form.  It's gotta be done before October 6th.

The ballot will likely be multiple pages.  Polk County's Sample Ballot is 2 pages.

Every election counts.  Every vote matters.  If you have questions about the candidates running for each office, the local newspapers - Tampa Bay Times, Tampa Trib, Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, (Jacksonville) Times-Union, so many others - will have website information on each, and the League of Women Voters has a guide for the statewide offices and candidates.

If you want a general rule of thumb to go by: FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DO NOT VOTE REPUBLICAN.  The party as a whole has been in charge of this state for 15-20 years, and they have made a goddamn mess of things.

And let's get the DAMN VOTE OUT.  I am sick of seeing a state with 11.5 million registered voters show up with a measly 4-5 million (under 50 percent! damn us all!).

And to hell with the polling.  One week it's one thing, next week it's another.  JUST VOTE FOR CRIST, PEOPLE.  RICK SCOTT IS A CROOK.

Keep in touch.  I will have more to rage on as the month progresses.

Just remember, YOUR VOTE IS YOUR POWER.

Early Voting Florida: Primaries August 16 2014

WAKE UP FLORIDA

Early voting begins today (Saturday) August 16th!  It's for the Primaries and for the local elected offices such as School Boards and Judges.

Early polling places should be available in most accessible locations in every county (Except Pinellas County which for some GODFORSAKEN REASON never has an early polling place in North Pinellas.  Clearwater is still a hassle to get to!  Would it kill you guys to put a polling place in Tarpon Springs?!  We're not freaking Siberia up there!  /rage).

For example, I currently reside in Mulberry, so City Hall is where I go:

I voted.  AND SO SHOULD YOU!

Just a reminder or three:
1) They do require photo ID.  Which is still a problem for people - mostly poor - who can't afford one (Driver's or State ID).  Also an authorized signature (to match the one you gave when you signed for your free voter ID card).  If you do not have a photo ID you can still vote using a Provisional Ballot!
2) Please read up on the candidates' information first.  Your county elections office should have a list of candidates, and hopefully those candidates will have websites arguing their positions.  If not, check the local newspapers for the op-ed recommendations.  The local elections for school board and justices may be non-partisan, but the candidates still are partisan so make sure you're not voting any wingnuts to office.
3) The primaries in Florida are closed: you have to be in a party to vote their primary challenges.  However, NPA (non-Party voters like me) can STILL vote for the school boards and judges, and that's still important, so EVERYONE needs to get out to vote.
3a) If you're Democrat, you DO have a primary contest for Governor: choosing between Charlie Crist and Nan Rich.  Personally, I back Crist but I'm NPA so I can't vote.  All I can say is vote your conscience.
3b) If you're Republican, you DO have a primary contest for Governor: choosing between Rick "Medicare Fraud" Scott and two challengers, Yinka Abosede Adeshina and Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder.  If you've followed this blog with any awareness these past four years, you know my feelings about Rick "No Ethics" Scott.  All I can say is vote your conscience... WHICH MEANS VOTING FOR ELIZABETH CUEVAS-NEUNDER.  PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD REPUBLICANS DON'T VOTE FOR A GODDAMN CROOK...
5) The major election issues - the state amendments - are set for November.  Again, I'll write about those three ballot issues - not many this year, odd - on a later blog entry.

That all said, if you're in Mulberry (Polk County) and need help finding your way to the early voting area, just look for the TARDIS:

The Doctor does not support nor does he recognize any of the candidates running for office this 2014.  As a Gallifreyian non-resident, he's not allowed to vote here anywho.

The Doctor does, however, encourage you to support your local public library! (Hi Mulberry!)

Raging Against Voters Who Won't Vote

You know me.  One of the big drums I beat about politics is the need for voter turnout.  My whole belief system in our republican democracy is that we need more people showing up, not less.

And still... and still... outside of the Big One - the Presidential tournament we run every four years - voter turnout in this nation is atrocious.  In a place where freedom of choice is touted, the biggest choice seems to be refusing to show up.

It's worse when I am angling so much to one side - higher Democratic turnout, because I am firmly convinced the modern GOP is too Far Right - only to see that even in the midterm (or special) election cycle where massive Democratic turnout would be key to winning House seats the turnout remains dismal.

One argument being given in the Washington Post:

Plouffe, who was Obama’s campaign manager in 2008 and oversaw the reelection bid as White House senior adviser, put the onus back on the Democrats. Democrats didn’t lose the special election because the Republicans had an insurmountable advantage in the district. They lost because they couldn’t get enough voters — the ones who backed Obama in 2012 — to the polls. Plouffe called the loss a “screaming siren” for the fall. As he put it, “We have a turnout issue.”

...Districts like Florida’s 13th may look more Republican in off-year elections than in presidential years, but as Plouffe pointed out, that’s because Democrats have a turnout problem in those midterm elections. The Democrats’ coalition includes groups of voters who are simply less likely to show up in midterm elections. Younger voters turn out at lower rates in midterm elections than older voters. Single women are less likely to vote than married women...

...A companion problem is confronting Democrats this year: dissatisfaction in their ranks. Obama has disappointed many of his followers, and his overall approval ratings are low enough to give the party real concern. The lack of enthusiasm for the president could easily lead to demoralization and too many stay-at-home voters in November...

This is a bit off of that posting but it's a feeling I'm getting from reviewing the hand-wringing about the poor turnout: Democrats are not as united as the bloggers hope. Whereas the Republicans are fracturing between Far Right factions fighting between themselves over who's the most hardcore wingnuts, the Democrats have remained fractured since the 1990s between the moderate/Centrist types - represented by the Clinton political machine - and the Far Left types who want their elected officials ideologically pure.  Bipartisanship is a dirty word among the tree-hugging hippie libruls too.

But where the Far Right faction(s) used party purging to drive out their moderate leaderships to make the Republicans more wingnut, the Far Left decided to take their ball and go home to sulk and wait for their ideal "pure" liberal candidates to emerge.  This explains a little bit why candidates like Alex Sink - this was her second time failing to win by a meager margin - are having trouble getting the vote out: Sink is not viewed as politically "pure" on topics, and her background in banking doesn't help.  Simply put: the candidates the state party here in Florida is putting up for election in some of the battleground districts don't inspire the base the way the GOP's candidates inspire the base.  And Florida's not the only state with that problem...

I'm a bit worried right now for Charlie Crist.  Currently the state-wide favorite to beat Rick "Medicare Fraud" Scott (Crist leads in the polls over Scott 52-40), Crist could win the primary nomination - he's well ahead of other Democratic candidates like Nan Rich and Pam Iorio (and even Sink is back on the list) - but the Far Left voters might refuse to turn out yet again for a candidate they'll view as a turncoat ex-Republican.  Failure to turn out for him - as well as failing to turn out for all the other Democratic challengers in contestable state and congressional districts - is gonna get us stuck with four more years of an openly failing, corrupt, incompetent Scott.

Someone needs to get out there and get the Democrats motivated to vote.  These midterms are as important as always, especially against a Republican Party convinced their ObamaCare opposition will win them votes (and even the US Senate).  Obama needs to step up: most Presidents don't seem to put themselves out there for midterms, letting the state parties founder without them, but dammit Obama has the social skills and charisma to inspire the voters to show up this year.

As for me, here I am still shouting GET THE DAMN VOTE OUT PEOPLE.

It's Official: Crist for Governor 2014

Charlie Crist will run as a Democratic candidate to serve a second term as Florida's Governor.

He served his first term as a Republican, but had governed in such a moderate, bipartisan effort that he found himself on the outs with the party.  He ran for the US Senate in 2010 as an Independent, but ended up splitting the vote with the Democratic candidate that allowed Marco Rubio to win that race.

There is a primary at stake, with Nan Rich already in the race, but Crist is the better-known name, and has a better track record at raising campaign funds and voter support.  We'll see how it goes.

Crist has a few positives as a candidate.  He's got governing experience.  He's shown skill in handling tough issues and balancing the divisive issues across the state.  And, he's not a bleeping thief like Rick "Medicare Fraud" Scott.

...just gotta find a campaign website for Crist now.  Hurm.

More Notes From The Sunshine State Asylum, AKA Post 498

This is my 498th post on this blog site (formerly Amendments We Need, now You Might Notice A Trend), so in 2 blog entries from now I'm gonna have an epic blog of total epicness that will be, um, epic.  Please keep an eye on this blog.  Until then you get this update:

Former candidate Alex Sink has decided not to run again for the 2014 Florida governorship.

...Sink's decision not to run was widely expected in Florida political circles, as she showed little sign of putting together a campaign and was up front about her ambivalence and her family's opposition. But until Friday, the former Bank of America leader and former state chief financial officer continued to keep the door open and several times pushed back her deadline for announcing a decision...

...Sink lost to Rick Scott by just over 1 percentage point in 2010, despite being outspent dramatically and facing a Republican tidal wave across the country. Still, many Democrats complained that Sink ran an anemic, excessively cautious campaign against a weak Republican who had run a company that paid the largest fine in U.S. history for Medicare fraud...

This basically leaves the way open for Charlie Crist, former (relatively sane) Republican turned (hopefully still sane) Democrat in the wake of the wingnut-ification of the GOP.  While Crist has his critics even among his now Democratic allies (primarily that he's an opportunist), few can criticize his campaign skills.  Crist left the governor's office under relatively popular terms: the only ones who hated him were the hard-line Republicans who felt betrayed when he fled the party in 2010 when the state organization turned far right.

Crist's polling numbers into this year are pretty solid against Rick "F-ck The State" Scott.  If there had been a primary challenge between Crist, Sink, Nan Rich (so far the only other candidate in the race, but failing to raise interest or funds to keep up) and the others, Crist would have won but the primary process would have been brutal considering the left wing base of the Democrats won't trust him.  A majority of Democrats seem to be backing Crist primarily because moderates and disgruntled former Republicans like Crist, and the primary objective - get rid of Scott - is something a majority of Floridians can get behind.

Supporting Crist

I know I've made earlier posts giving some praise to the man.  Here I'm making it official:

I'm supporting Charlie Crist for the U.S. Senate this November 2010.

There's not much I can do in the way of financial donations (being unemployed and all).  So I am trying to find out if there's volunteer time I can provide.  For the seven people reading this blog, if you've got some funds handy and want to piss off the Wingnut Republicans, here's your chance.  Click the link above.  I'll be adding the Crist website to my links on the right.

P.S. Go Gators!  Go Bucs!  Go Bulls!  Go Rays!  Go Spongers (Tarpon High)!

Florida Political Snapshot April 2010

As of right now, Crist is making a public speech tomorrow: while the content isn't fully known, the speculation is that Crist is going to run for the Senate as an No Party guy.

So what does this all mean in Florida?

Things to consider:
1) Crist is going to have the lead if only temporary, mostly because of his name recognition and the fact that non-Party Independent voters and party Moderates who had more love for Crist will have his back.  But Crist is jumping into this election without the full backing or support of a Party: like it or not, political parties have the machinery to fund and push campaigns.  Crist is going in without any major financial backers and almost no campaign workers with connections and experience.  He's not going to bring a lot of state-level Republicans with him, and he's not going to get a lot of state-level Democrats who smell blood in the water.
2) Rubio doesn't have an easy run now that Crist is out of the GOP primary.  The primary was easy because Rubio could pander to the Far Right for about four more months and not get into any trouble.  Now that there's no primary, there's no reason to pander to the crazy base: NOW Rubio has to pander to the whole state of voters, meaning he's got to suck up to Moderates and Indys who make up the Undecided voters that everyone needs to, you know, ACTUALLY WIN.  And there's ANOTHER problem on top of that: Rubio has NO CREDIBILITY selling himself as a Centrist or reasonable candidate.  Everybody, and I mean EVERYONE, knows that Rubio drove Crist out of the GOP primary because Rubio was in the Far Right's pocket.  I can't imagine any Moderate or Independent voter getting convinced that Rubio is MORE moderate than the obviously-moderate Crist.  And on top of that, all it will take is one misstep in trying to pose as a Moderate for Rubio to anger up the Far Right.  Rubio's got no margin for error and no chance to play to the whole voter spectrum.
3) The Democratic challenger, Meek, still has a tough road ahead of him.  While the voting registers show a 700,000 increase in Democratic voters that could give Meek an edge, Crist is going to take away a lot of the Moderate and Independent voters the Democrats could have counted out if there had been a contested GOP primary.  A bloody GOP fight would have coated Rubio as a Far Right wingnut well enough to allow Meek to convince the 33-35 percent of the middle-of-the-road crowd to lean Dem.  Now?  That 33-35 percent is with Crist, who has a bigger profile, a slightly better resume, and a track record of being open-minded (stopping voter record purges, being pro-Obama and pro-stimulus) to where even Democrats might think a vote for Crist will still serve their party well.

So for right now, the three-way race is up for grabs.  Meek has the growing numbers, Rubio has the money, Crist has the marquee name.

The wild-card in all this.  The credit card / tax dodge scandal.  While Crist is not in the clear as some of his buddies are under investigation, Rubio himself is under investigation too.  The good news for Crist is that he's jumping the GOP ship before they get torpedoed by the federal investigations into the state-wide party: Rubio does NOT have the luxury to avoid this issue.  Oh, I'm sure the Republicans are going to mudsling on Crist that he's in it deep, but they can't explain away Rubio's name being in the mix: bringing up the credit card scandal is going to hurt Rubio as well as Crist.  Strange days indeed.

Welcome to Florida!

And Crist Gets Kicked from the GOP Reindeer Games in 5... 4... 3...

And the fandom rejoiced: Crist vetoes the SB 6 "Death To Tenure" bill the Republican-led state legislature tried to force onto the state of Florida.

The way things stand, the lege doesn't have the vote to override the veto, so the bill is dead.  Now all that happens is that the state (and national) Republican party leadership is going to go after Crist's head on a platter.

Some background is needed.  The state Republicans - and the national level crowd - never really had a lot of love for workers' unions.  Especially teachers' unions.  And the Republicans really don't have a lot of love overall for education in this nation - facts tend to lean too, ah, liberal for them - so any chance they can get to screw around with education is a good thing for them.

The SB 6 was the result of the previous Florida governor Jeb "I'm the Smart One" Bush's push via his 'education foundation' to screw with our state.  The final bill's result - gutting tenure, switching to an annual employment contract rather than a long-term contract, eliminating raises based on experience and advanced degrees (NOTE: My mom worked as a Florida teacher since 1978-79, and in the 1990s worked on a doctorate so she could get a teacher's raise for it.  The bill would have killed that kind of teacher improvement), and tying teacher evaluations to students' testing scores - would have been the crown jewel of the ex-governor's push to punish the Florida teachers' union no wait that's right, there's been an open war between Jeb and the teachers for a good long while (what happa, Jeb, did a Phys Ed teacher give you a C for lousy volleyball play?).

Public response to the bill was overwhelming.  Nearly everyone who wasn't a Republican state official HATED it.  Crist had gotten over 100,000 messages with over 58,000 opened by this point and nearly all of them begging him to veto the thing.  Because Crist is out campaigning for the US Senate primary, he ran into a sizable portion of Republican voters... who all told him they had relatives working as teachers or were themselves teachers who were going to get screwed over by the bill.

Let's be fair about this: Crist was all for the anti-tenure bill... until the people spoke in such numbers that he had to pause and step back.  And like I said about him earlier, Crist may be crazy but he's not stupid.  And he's also not entirely beholden anymore to a political party that's all but dumped on him.

I earlier thought Crist had a good chance in his Senate campaign because I figured a majority of Republican voters in this state would wise up and realize that a Republican who played well to Democratic and Independent crowds (like Crist) come November was a better choice than a Far Right Winger like Rubio.  Well, color me the naive optimist.  Crist is getting his ass handed to him in the primary polls by about 27 points, with Rubio up like 62 to 35 percent of the pre-polled votes.  Rubio is also getting all the national love with the likes of Palin, The Club for Greed, and Rudy Giuliani campaigning for him (Jeb hasn't openly supported either candidate but it's an open secret Jeb doesn't like Crist much.  Jeb definitely hates him now for the veto... ).  Apparently the Far Right Wingnuts are in full control of the state party.  And now the paradox I warned about - that an extremist party can win a primary but suffer in the general election - is close to playing out.

Crist is paying now because he openly supported President Obama's economic stimulus package back in 2009.  Mind you, that stimulus was something EVERY state needed (almost every state is struggling to this day with severe budget shortfalls), but because of the GOP's ambitions and obstructionist mood nearly every Republican leader denounced it even as they gleefully took the money.  The Republicans didn't want to give Obama any bipartisan political cover at all.  Crist didn't read the memo: he greeted Obama as the President toured the nation promoting the stimulus, and essentially gave Obama the cover he needed.  The GOP hasn't forgiven Crist at all, even though he played it true.

But for all the hatred that Crist generates within his own party, he plays well as an overall candidate when you include the Democrats and Independent voters into the mix.  Especially now that he vetoed this thing, he's gotten in good with a large voting bloc (teachers and their families).  In short, there's been a lot of buzz about Crist running as an Independent ticket (or even switching to the Democrats' side of the primary).

Polling is showing Crist does well if he drops out of the GOP and runs as an Indy.  In a three-way race, Crist tops out at 32 percent, Rubio at 30 and likely Democratic candidate Rep. Kendrick Meek at 24.  And the polling was before the veto was signed: if the outrage against the bill is any indicator Crist's popularity statewide will go up.

Historically, a contested-three-way race doesn't help an Independent: the entrenched party system makes sure of that.  The few Independents who do win (such as Joe "It's All For Me" Lieberman) overtake an existing candidate (Lieberman essentially stole all the support from the established GOP candidate Schlesinger) or else happen to run where one party has no challenger in place (still making it a de facto two-party race).  Crist will be fighting a tough race as an Indy as long as both Rubio and Meek stay in the fight: the Democrats might like what Crist did just now for the teachers' unions, but politics is politics and they'll vote Meek just so there's an actual Dem in the Senate.

Crist's problem is that he's got a time limit: if he doesn't drop out before the last week of April and enlist as an Independent candidate, he'll miss that deadline.  The primary itself is in AUGUST: that meager lead Rubio has could well explode before then and Crist will get pummeled and humiliated worse than Mondale was in 1984.  If he drops out, though, he'll be called 'opportunistic' and 'traitor' and Lord knows everything else by the GOP... but it's not like he's being treated politely right now anyway.  What will happen is that he will lose the backing of an existing political machine and be left alone without a base of support.  Switching to the Democratic party is another option, but Meek isn't dropping out for what I know...

Part of me actually wants the Republican Party to openly dismiss / kick Crist out of the party: makes it easier for everyone involved.  It'll definitely make the GOP look petty and demonstrate their decades-long push to drive moderates out of the party.

In truth, though: Crist needs to drop out of the GOP and run as an Independent.  His political career in the Republican Party is done, finished.  The party's open support for Rubio was too obvious a clue: their coming outrage over his vetoing Jeb Bush's pet project even more so.  If Crist wants to remain in politics, he's going to have to go it alone for now.  On his terms.

It sucks that the political system is like this now.  But the damn Purity Party led by the RINO hunting Club for Greed has made it this way.

Fly, Crist, fly away you're free!

Florida Politics: Crist and the GOP Paradox

I know, I haven't written about amendment ideas for a good while - it's because the ideas already thrown out there like "No More Lying," "Death to Greedheads" and "President Is NOT Above the Law" are kinda it, any other amendment idea comes along as response to a momentary crisis, but I digress - but at least the political scene keeps me motivated in publishing from time to time.

The choice news du jour is local: Florida Governator Charlie Crist will officially thrown his hat into the ring for the open U.S. Senate seat for 2010.

While the polling numbers for the competitive race (both primary and general) are still early they also look pretty good for him. Crist remains popular across the board in Florida, even among Democrats (!!!) at a time any Republican Governor would feel lucky to be polling above 5o percent. Despite the budgetary woes Crist has been able to keep himself away from that mire, leaving it to an increasingly unpopular (thanks for all the corruption, guys!) state Lege.

But as for being a popular - or even a Moderate - Republican, well, a closer look is warranted... and if he truly is a Moderate Republican, closer concerns need to be addressed...

Crist's popularity among moderates (and Democrats) is derived mostly from three things: 1) Sincere attempts to court state Blacks and Hispanics, mostly by improving voter access for minorities and stopping dubious voter roll purges; 2) Presenting himself as eco-friendly regarding carbon emissions and Everglades protection; 3) He's not Jeb Bush, even though their gubernatorial achievements are mostly similar outside of points 1) and 2). Where Jeb had it better over Crist was unshakable support from the Republican ranks... but even there Crist is still popular with rank-and-file GOP voters. It's the local (and federal) Republican leadership that is at odds - rather openly - with Crist.

But in truth Crist is a rather solid conservative: openly pro-life and pro-Jebus for one thing; heavy on the gov't spending cuts and avoidance of tax hikes wherever possible for another (what else to call Amendment One for Super-homesteading he promoted, which evaded the real problem the state has in raising revenue via property taxes?).

The thing that really gets the GOP leadership all hot and bothered is that Crist DOESN'T stick to the script. When he needs to, which has been often, Crist jumps the Republican Reservation fence and goes rogue. The most obvious example is the one the Club for Greed, primary challenger Marco Rubio (a local up-and-comer who DOES toe the party line), Rush Limbaugh, GOP Guvnners like Palin and Jindal and Sanford, and nearly every GOP Congressperson and Senator NOT named Specter, Snowe or Collins will point to:

Crist openly supported Obama's stimulus package.

It's only a really big deal simply because the Republican Party had decided, back in January and February when every economist not on the Club for Greed and CATO Institute payroll were screaming for federal relief from a massive Recession, to simply deny and obstruct the stim package in toto. And that the whole party had to reject the Stim. Simply on principle. Because after 8 years of reckless GOP spending and relaxing of financial and business regulations that helped CAUSE the economic crisis in the first place, the Republicans finally decided they were the Responsible Fiscal Geniuses all along and they all wanted Obama to FAIL and so the Stimulus package had to be opposed even in the face of economic armageddon.

Except for Crist. Crist hosted a rally in Florida, posed with Obama, praised the Stimulus money coming to his states and all the other states. Even as the rest of the Republican Party voted No even with Obama's attempt at bipartisanship and compromise, became the Party of No much to the chagrin of the whole country... and even as the Republican Party kept losing voters across the board (SEE Tedisco's Failure to Win New York District 20 Even Though Its A Solid GOP District) and even as Crist's popularity never wavered (why else is Nate Silver projecting an EASY primary AND general win?).

Because this is really the one thing in Crist's favor: He's not stupid. He may be crazy - as all Floridians tend to be, hi guys! - but he's not stupid.

Because Crist, sitting in the governor's seat, was seeing a looming state budget threatened by a massive financial shortfall. Florida's meager tax system was generated by property sales and millage rates that went into the red as the housing/mortgage bubble went POP; sales taxes from all those tourists we USED to get before 9/11, the gas crisis of 2007-08, AND the unemployment crisis of 2007-Current kept them from enjoying our beaches and crappy Disney rides; and by avoiding any direct taxation on companies to move their corporate HQs here as a means of generating better state-level wealth so that residents wouldn't rely on public resources, only to have said companies ship all their jobs overseas to India and China anyway.

Without that Stimulus funding, Crist was facing something few states want to face: utter bankruptcy. A lot of states, even Republican ones, were facing massive deficits and possible bankruptcies. The typical GOP Governor response was "Not gonna take the Stim money." Palin said it, Sanford said it, Perry said it... until their own State Leges - some of them Republican-led and none of them thinking of running for the White House in 2012 - basically knee-capped them and said "WE NEED THE FRAKKING MONEY!" Except Crist. Like I said, not stupid: Crist saw the mood of the populus, he did the REAL basic math all politicians ought to do, and he full-heartedly applauded Obama and gave the President the bipartisan cover he needed to sell the Stimulus nation-wide. And that Stimulus money - for the most part - saved the state budget (what's gonna save it next year, though...).

So this is the deal: The Republicans as led by Rush, Newt, BillO and Grover are reeling right now, mostly from self-inflicted wounds they won't even admit to, and currently in a serious anger mode not only focused on Obama but anyone who even dares to associate with him. Which means Crist, currently the most prominent Republican caught on film hugging Obama, is also on their "Hate Him" List. Other Rubio allies are gonna have to include Mike Huckabee, who has to be thinking if Crist wins the Senate in 2010 he'll be in a better position to run for President 2012; and Jeb Bush, who has a personal animus against Crist (mostly because Crist has done almost the same things Jeb did but got more praise for it, and when Crist did things Jeb opposed it made Crist even MORE popular). Meaning these prominent Republicans are gonna seriously go out of their way to hurt one of their own. Almost like when the Kos crowd went out of their way to hurt Lieberman in 2006, the only difference being that if the GOP hardliners hurt Crist it's actually going to make things worse for the whole Republican Party.

'Cause here's the Paradox: Crist is running as an extremely popular Republican at a time nearly no other Republican is polling such high numbers, statewide or nationwide. Yet you're going to see a large part of the Republican's political machine turn against him, even though Crist represents the best possible chance the Republicans will have to A) keep a Senate seat (R), and B) prove that the Republicans are not a dying party. 'Cause this is the thing Kos and his krewe want: they WANT Rush and Co. beating up on Crist during the primary, because it'll be just like when the Republican hardliners beat up on Chafee and Gilchrist and ended up losing those incumbants' seats to solid Democrats. Democrats are terrified of Crist: if he survives the primary, even wounded, he'll still be a more attractive candidate than the likely Democratic challenger (Kendrick Meek). And even though Obama won this state in November (and McCain won it in the 2008 primary, even over more 'acceptable' conservative choices like Romney (bleh)), Florida is a solid GOP state: Crist survives the primary and the Democrat might as well concede right then.

So this is the challenge to the GOP. Should the party wake up, accept Crist as a solid candidate, and make it a smooth ride to November 2010 and ensure the Republicans don't lose more footing in the Senate? Or should the party continue its descent into irrational (and it IS irrational) Obama Hate and Tax-Cut Obsessiveness, push hard for a Rubio candidancy, make it more likely the next Senator from Florida is Meek, and make it absolutely certain the Republicans have NO power at the Federal level for the next 2-6 years (or even longer)?