Saturday, June 20, 2009

Iran. Day Eight. Blood and Tear Gas

As always I've linked to Sullivan, who is updating the Iranian crisis on what is now a minute-to-minute basis. He's pretty much it. The cable news have gone to WEEKEND features, MSNBC is showing re-runs of hour-long crime specials for God's sake, just like they did LAST weekend. They haven't learned from their mistake last week where they got lamblasted for ignoring a major global event, and they've forgotten what made Cable News: the non-stop coverage of wars and global events like the fall of the Berlin Wall from the late-80s through to the first Gulf War. CNN and Fox are providing some updates, whereas MSNBC is still stuck in Weekend repeat mode. I still suggest if you want any television coverage on Iran, go find BBC World on your HD. They're doing a *slightly* better job of it, but still not as in-depth as I'd want...

Khamenei threw down last time I posted, saying that any future protests would be violently put down, and saying it would all be on Mousavi's hands. Of course, Khamenei isn't about to admit that the person ordering the violence is himself responsible, can he... So today there's more violence in the streets. The cops are now using anti-riot gear, tear gas, water cannons, and now reports of acid sprays - apparently an old trick from the 78-79 uprisings. Again Congratulations, Khamenei: You're now the moral equivilent of the Shah. You must be... so thrilled...

Still not too sure what can be done from this end of things other than to pray for everyone's well-being - and that God's Mighty Anvil falls on Khamenei real frakkin soon - but with escalation to violence by the regular police, that means wounded and dying. Part of me is wondering if we can check with groups like the Red Cross/Crescent or Amnesty International about what can be done for the peoples of Iran.

UPDATE: One question to consider for ponderment. What happens if this round of violence doesn't keep people off the streets like the mullahs hope? The Iranian economy is starting to crimp from the growing number of strikes, closed offices, and lack of normal telecommunications. Khamenei and his lackeys aren't controlling the images getting out to the world. The longer this gets strung out, the more likely international condemnation from other Islamic nations will increase. For all the violence we're seeing - and I know this sounds cynical because it's not my life on the line - this really isn't as bad as it *could* be: the Iranian leadership is too afraid to kill too many people lest they create a literal army of dead martyrs. They're trying to kill *just enough* people to induce fear and hopelessness... but that doesn't seem to be working as more people are out in the streets chanting. And they're still making too many martyrs for the protesters' cause.
This isn't China, where the protest was focused primarily in Tianneman Square, where the army could go bulldozing in and flatten 2000-3000 people, and be able to do it mostly off-camera (this was before twitter and cell-phone cameras ever existed). The protests are in multiple cities, covering a broad array of the population (while the secret thug police have been smashing up colleges, they're going after the more high-profile targets but missing everyone else marching in the streets), and with enough of the population armed with 21st century technology that the mullahs can't stop.
One other point about this not being China: lack of viable allies. China in 1989 still had a Soviet Union to back them up internationally, and the nuclear firepower (and growing financial power) to ensure the United States and the West not argue the point too often or too loudly. Iran? They may be on good speaking terms with Russia, but this isn't their fight (Russia could benefit from a more liberal Iran that's not agitating other Islamic ethnicities to rise up). Can you think of any Islamic nation (not internal terror group, btw) that has openly accepted the questionable voting results, or would now ally with a mullah-led state that's openly supressing their own people?
Another point about this not being China: the regular Iranian army is still not moving in. With China, in went the tanks, out went the bodies (except for this guy. Oh Gods. I still hope he's alive and following this story), and that was that. The longer the army stays on the sidelines, the better. And the Iranian army can afford to stay on the sidelines. The mullahs can't go after the army too harshly if they do prevail, because that will get the army back into the fight on the protesters' side: the citizenry will be grateful to the army's non-intervention if they prevail, and whatever civilian power comes into office will need the army to stablize what will be a chaotic next few years. It's win-win for the regular army to just sit there. Mind you, if they do go in it's game over for the protesters and it'll be a win of sorts for the army: but only as long as Khamenei stays in power. And Iran will be another unstable military/mullah junta with zero international credibility. One would question if Russia or China would help Iran continue their nuclear program...
Now there is the Revolutionary Guard special forces army, but they don't have enough manpower/firepower to take care of all the protests nationwide, and if they go in to bloodily wipe out any one citywide protest that would actually cause an inverse reaction where the protesters will throw up more barricades and prolong the fight like it was 1840s France... or 1979 Iran...
What was my point again? I admit, I meandered there. The point is, Khamenei played a game of chicken with the protesters: the protesters called his bluff. And while the body count is going up, the bodies are showing up on global TV and creating an environment where global political pressure is going to fall on Khamenei (not Mousavi). This can, as said before, get a lot worse. Depends entirely on how stubborn Khamenei is compared to how worried he has to be that he's already lost one way or another...

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