Doubts About Singapore This Week

Just to note that right now trump is in Singapore planning to meet face-to-face with Kim Jong Un, despite all of the earlier bashing, mockery, failure to commit (on trump's part), and scrambling to save face (also on trump's part).

trump is REALLY REALLY desperate to "earn" himself a Nobel Peace Prize. Most Republicans have this insane love/hate/really-hate relationship with that Peace Prize: They argue whenever Democrats receive it - Gore, Obama, others - and belittle it whenever possible, but at the same time they make excessive "nomination" efforts (many of them aren't even allowed to do so, doesn't stop them from acting like idiots in public) to get their warmongering guys like Dubya and even trump to win one because it conveys Statesman status.

Anyway, trump is trying to establish his foreign policy mastery - right after insulting the hell out of Canada and the rest of the G7 allies - by doing his damnedest to suck up to the North Korean dictator to try and get the tiniest concessions he can fake getting. trump has already agreed not to bring up anything that would offend Kim to his face - especially human rights abuses - and there's little else that trump is bringing as incentives for bargaining chips as need be.

Under normal circumstances, I hope for the best possible outcome of any foreign nation negotiations not just for the United States but also our allies in the region who can benefit from peace or stability.

But in this case, I don't want to get my hopes up. trump is going to be way out of his league here, and Kim is likely to walk away from this visit with all these gifts and leaving none behind for ourselves.

You gotta remember, trump's negotiation skills are not all that great: He panders, he bullies, he demands, he tries to wear down his opponent but offers little in exchange worth taking. Against small businesspersons and contractors unable to keep up, it works. Against political peers, well... Just look at the disaster that was this weekend in Quebec. All trump got out of that was the certainty his tariff trade war is going to escalate, and not in our favor.

The best possible outcome out of this is that Guam gets a chance to get out of U.S. protection and switch over to Japan or something. 'Cause right now they're sitting ducks for any Korean missile strikes if trump ever brings up his goddamned "lil Rocket Man" barbs.

Just remember to Duck and Cover, Asia. Duck and Cover...

World's Darkest Punchline

In another round of "He said WHAT" today, when Loser of the Popular Vote trump spoke to the General Assembly of the United Nations (via Washington Post):

The president warned of growing threats from North Korea and Iran, and he said, “The scourge of our planet is a group of rogue regimes.”

He praised the U.N. for enacting economic sanctions on Pyongyang over its nuclear and ballistic missile tests. But he emphasized that if Kim Jong Un's regime continued to threaten the United States and to destabilize East Asia, his administration would be prepared to defend the country and its allies.

“We will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea,” Trump said, before calling Kim by a nickname he gave the dictator on Twitter over the weekend. “Rocket Man is on a suicide mission for himself.”

So basically trump just publicly insulted a military-backed dictator perfectly capable and willing to attack our regional allies like South Korea and Japan, as well as our territorial places like Guam.

In a place where diplomacy is the religion, and showing public decorum and manners is important.

trump is basically spoiling for a fight in the one place you're NOT SUPPOSED TO PUBLICLY SPOIL FOR A FIGHT.

Saturday Night Live was not kidding about this:


via GIPHY

Man bursts into tears. "But doctor, I *am* Pagliacci."

Laugh all you want. But it's a deep bleak laugh at the joke we've pulled on ourselves.

And the whole world is going to have to make a choice: Save themselves by ostracizing a major power, or let themselves sink into the black hole that is trump.

We are so royally fucked.

Goodbye Guam, It Was Nice Knowing Ya

Just to update:

North Korea will develop a plan by mid-August to launch four intermediate range missiles at the U.S. territory of Guam before presenting it to leader Kim Jong Un who will make a decision on whether to proceed, the North's state media said on Thursday.

So, a few things to note about Guam before everything goes to hell:

• It's been a US Territory since the Spanish-American War.
• Its value as a naval station and stopping point to the Philippines made it an invaluable island to U.S. interests in the Pacific up to the beginning of World War II.
• Japan invaded during the bombing of Pearl Harbor and held Guam until 1944. The islanders - Chamorros - had a rough occupation, but remained loyal to the United States until its liberation.
• The native population argued successfully for self-determination by the 1950s, getting their own civilian government and by 1952 received American citizenship rights as an unincorporated territory. They gained the right to elect their own Governor by 1968. In modern times there's been efforts at either full Statehood (like Hawaii) or remaining a territory, with most residents preferring the status quo.
• Guam hosts two major US military bases - one Naval, one Air Force - which deploy air surveillance and saber-rattling bomber flights over North Korea. Which is why North Korea wants to launch four missiles at Guam.
• North Korea currently doesn't have nuclear capability with their missiles, so it's likely going to be conventional warheads that can blow up city blocks or airfields depending on how bad their aim is. Still, it's not going to be happy fun times if/when that happens.
• The local Chamorros population may be currently putting up a brave front, but they're not going to be thrilled if those missiles start raining down on their coconut farms. They've got enough problems with the Brown Tree Snake and Coconut Rhinoceros Beetle already.
• Guam was one of those places Americans should visit as part of understanding the vast stretch of our national heritage and culture. And also helping out get rid of the Brown Tree Snakes. Call it a working vacation, people, just as long as you get there before the bombs fall.

Goodbye, Guam. We love ya.

Just a Few Words on the Impending Nuclear War With North Korea, Thank You Republicans...

(Update: So of course all morning I've been in committee meeting, and I find out that Batocchio listed me on Crooks & Liars' Mike's Blog Round-Up for today! I had no time to bake anybody any cake. I feel awkward, man...
I kid. Thank ye, Batocchio, and to everyone visiting please check out the blog!)

So it's gotten out that North Korea has designed a nuclear warhead that can fit onto missiles. With the United Nations issuing tougher sanctions to let North Korea know the world isn't happy with them, North Korea issued a threat to send "packs of wolves" to defend itself.

Via David A. Graham at The Atlantic:

“North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States,” (trump) said. “They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. He has been very threatening beyond a normal statement, and as I said they will be met with fire, fury, and frankly power, the likes of which this world has never seen before.”

This was followed up with North Korea making noises about launching strikes at the US territory - and key airbases there - of Guam.

And we're pretty much looking at a modern day Cuban Missile Crisis, but with ego-driven crazy people driving both cars over the cliffs of Armageddon.

Let's just consider what we know:

• This is the Cold War update of Brinkmanship, which is a variation of the pre-World War Balance of Powers theory. Both sides rattle their sabers to garner concessions, making their side more reckless to make the other side more compliant. Neither side actually goes to war as long as deals are made.
• We're at a point where deals can't be made. North Korea has too much invested into its status as a nuclear power, the United States is currently led by a person in trump who is reckless to the point of stupidity.
• Secondary players such as China are limited in what they can do to stave off conflict. China has a use for North Korea as a loose cannon on the Asian political stage. Japan and South Korea - the nations most likely damaged by this war - are caught between a North Korea regime that has no qualms attacking them and an American regime that won't care much as long as US areas remain safe.
• trump has been talking about a preemptive strike on North Korea just to be done with the 70-plus years of stalemate there.
• A preemptive strike on North Korea may not succeed in taking out their missile sites and nuclear program.
• North Korea would likely respond to that as an act of war, and retaliate with a massive artillery barrage across the DMZ into South Korea. Which means Seoul is in the crosshairs.
• China, having arrangements with North Korea, will get drawn into the conflict in some form. Not a direct involvement against the United States or our allies there - Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Southeast Asia - but something to tie down our military focus. Something like starting a blockade around Taiwan or making a military claim for the South China Sea oil fields.
• trump will likely escalate from there with a full invasion of North Korea. He would have to address Congress and get a vote affirming the effort, and there is a likelihood even Republicans in Congress would balk at the threat of full war. trump will likely ignore them.
• At BEST in this scenario we end up in a Constitutional crisis where trump is removed via the 25th Amendment and let cooler heads prevail.
• If there is a land invasion of North Korea, it won't be quick or clean. Korean terrain is notoriously bad, the regime had decades fortifying everything since 1953, and they'll have enough technical know-how to stymie American and South Korean forces early on.
• This brings up the possibility - like it happened in the Korean War - of China sending in their troops to save their Korean allies (again). This will be another bloody mess.
• If the US is successful enough, and if North Korea still has at least one bomb left, the North Koreans will use it. It's unlikely they can strike the mainland US, but Guam is notably in range. It's more likely North Korea will strike South Korea/Japan targets as a major Fuck You to the rest of the world.
• If North Korea launches even one nuke, trump will use that as an excuse to nuke North Korea into a radioactive wasteland.
• If the US launches nukes at North Korea, China may be compelled to launch an equal number of nukes at the US. And they can reach Mainland US.
• And why would China respond like that? Because in this crazy game of Brinkmanship AKA Mutually Assured Destruction, nobody wants to be the one to pussy out. 

This is pretty much why 65 million Americans are screaming at the 62 million who voted for trump "ARE YOU FUCKING HAPPY NOW?"

I swear, in 1992 it felt like the world was gonna be safe from The End Of All Things. The Soviet Union collapsed, ending the Cold War. China wasn't interested or capable at the time of being a global threat even with their nuclear capability. Iraq was pacified. If there were wars going on, they were brushfires in Third World regions where global destruction was impossible. Even India and Pakistan - the two nations most likely to start nuclear war in the 1990s - weren't crazy enough to go there.

And yet here we are in 2017, with two knuckleheads in donald fucking trump and Kim fucking Jong fucking Un oh so eager to host a dick-measuring contest to see who can leave the most radioactive craters.

If this does all come down to a nuclear war between the US and China - because it won't stop with North Korea - I hope China has the decency to launch a few nukes right at Putin as a nice little "Thank you" note. That bastard is probably enjoying this with a bag of popcorn.