On the Florida Front, Shifting Candidates (w/ Update)

(Update below)
Just to keep you all informed of the current situation on the ground here.

The US Senate race in Florida is changing as one Republican candidate drops out to re-apply for the Congressional district he was leaving... in order to make room for Rubio to re-apply for the Senate seat he was vacating in order to run for President (state laws prohibit a candidate from running for two separate seats on one ballot).

To the Tampa Bay Times article!

The move sets up what could be an epic contest between Republican-turned-Democrat and former Gov. Charlie Crist, who is seeking the seat. After court-ordered redistricting, Jolly's seat now technically leans further toward the Democrats, though Jolly said Friday that a focus on local issues and solutions instead of partisan posturing would help him win over skeptics.

The switch also gets Jolly out of the way of incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio, who is poised to run for re-election after long saying he would not. Jolly had declared weeks ago that he expected Rubio to reverse course and run for the Senate, and he made clear he would not run against Rubio under any circumstance.

Four other Republicans are also running in the race to replace Rubio, but none has surged to the forefront, causing national Republicans to become increasingly worried that none can win in November. That has prompted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and others to publicly call on Rubio to run again for the Senate...

Rubio has kind of burned a few bridges during his Presidential campaign: Back in October he complained about the work - which was laughable because he was one of the most tardy Senators in office - and had blown off his responsibilities to the job in his constant setting up for this year's Presidential run. It would be interesting to see if he get back in (likely), which still depends on him filing by June 24. It shouldn't be too hard for him to get the signatures and funding in.

If Rubio returns, he's likely to win the Republican primary: With Jolly out, it's down to four lesser-known figures (two of whom might drop to avoid confronting Rubio) and it's with a state-wide party struggling to find any kind of salvation in the wake of Trump's bulldozing through here last March.

The thing will be the general election against the Democratic candidate, which is shaping up to be either Pat Murphy or Alan Grayson... likely to be Murphy, because Grayson's grand-standing and potential scandal is wearing out its welcome among Democratic ranks.

Just saying: both elections are key. Voters need to turn out for the Democrats both for the Senate race - make Rubio regret his absences and failures as a Senator, and turn the Senate back over to Dem control - and the House race - this is a good opportunity for Florida Dems to secure more Representatives, and get Crist to serve as a solid advocate for South Pinellas County - as part of an overall campaign to make Florida Blue.

Get the vote out, Florida Democrats. The congressional/state primary is in August, just around the corner... Every election matters, people!

Update 6/18: Just as I wrote this, it seemed the Atlantic did a report on Jolly's situation going back to run for the Congressional seat instead of the Senate. Jolly might not have anyone backing him up:

Jolly is an incumbent and by all accounts has the best shot against Charlie Crist, the former Florida governor (and ex-Republican) who won the Democratic nomination in his latest bid for a political comeback. A statement that does not even cheer his decision, much less commit support, is remarkable...

The committee helped Jolly win a tough special-election race in early 2014, a victory that presaged the GOP’s national gains in November of that year. But a rift emerged in April after 60 Minutes featured Jolly in a profile about his effort to pass legislation that would bar members of Congress from directly soliciting campaign donations. In an interview on the program, Jolly said that right after he was elected, a member of the party leadership sat him down and told him that his “first responsibility” as a new congressman was to raise $18,000 a day to get reelected.

The NRCC denied the meeting took place, and it was particularly angry that CBS was able to get a hidden camera into its “call center” near the Capitol where members dial for dollars. The 60 Minutes piece portrayed Jolly in a glowing light as a political reformer fighting against the odds. But fellow Republicans viewed his participation as a self-serving betrayal of the party and a barely disguised bid to boost his standing in a Senate race in which he was struggling to gain traction—no doubt in part due to poor fund-raising. Even more galling to Republicans was the insinuation that Jolly, a former congressional staffer and lobbyist, didn’t know what he was getting into when he arrived in Congress...

You see, the fund-raisers don't mind if you campaign every day to raise money for them. 'Cause it's all about the money. They'll get mighty pissed if you raise a stink about it instead.

I doubt Jolly's not a real reformer, though. I'm guessing he just didn't want to spend time dialing for donations, time better spent playing Call of Duty: Fake Soldier Sim on his Playstation.

Blogging Update on the Florida Primary Night: As We're Waiting for the End of the World

I'm actually going to bug out at some point tonight, as there's a project I'm working on that needs to be done after nightfall and I'll be unable to blog during then. But I will likely have my Twitter going at @PaulWartenberg so you can track me there if need be.

Otherwise, considering all the polling for Florida it's already looking like a good night for Trump (AUGH), a bad night for Rubio (HAHA) and Cruz (AUGH) and Kasich (Meh) on the Republican side, and a good night for Hillary (Ehhhh, Okay) and a not-so-good night for Bernie (Son, you gotta learn not to talk to women that way).

I'll provide a link to a news site that you can follow in the meantime, and I'll add other sites that may liveblog or at least keep a running commentary...

Update: I've got the NBC News tracker linked here for Florida.

Balloon Juice's link finally has a thread going.

The Atlantic has a liveblog link here.

I will see about others.

Be right back.

UPDATE 7:20 PM EDT: The early polls for Florida are in. Trump is decisively beating Rubio and Hillary is decisively beating Bernie. However, the state's Panhandle will be coming in late due to their being in the Central Time Zone, so they won't close until 8:00 PM or so. There's also the possibility of the South Florida turnout swamping the ballot count, so there may be a delay there as well.

I want to see what the overall voter turnout is like. If the Republicans are substantially turning out in higher numbers than the Democrats, I will be worried. One thing I hate about Florida is the terrible voter turnout among Democrats when they're unimpressed with their candidates. If the numbers are within norms - that is, accounting for their being more Republican candidates to vote for - then I'll feel okay. But this is what's going to bother me most tonight.

UPDATE 7:35 PM EDT: Ohio and North Carolina polls are starting to close. We're not going to see serious numbers on them yet, but we'll see. Ohio is a huge state for Hillary to win or lose, because if Sanders wins there that hurts her momentum. Illinois is another potential speed bump, but Ohio is as much a key for her as Florida.

UPDATE 7:43 PM EDT: The number of voters so far are polling within reason, at least in my opinion, between the Republicans and the Democrats. Right about now, Trump has 590,000 or so voters to Hillary's 640,000 or so, with Bernie at 313,000 or so compared to Rubio's 350,000 or so. Where the numbers add up more are for the remaining two Repubicans, with Cruz in Third at 207,000 and Kasich at around 70,000. Carson is out of the race but still polling with 14,000 (likely holdovers from Early Voting and Absentees).

UPDATE 7:45 PM EDT: Alright, I'm going to bug out in a few minutes to run my errand, and I'll be right back. Add comments if you'd like, send me a Tweet at my @PaulWartenberg account.

Be right back!

UPDATE 9:25 PM EDT: Okay, I'm back from my errand..

SO OF COURSE MARCO RUBIO SUSPENDS HIS CAMPAIGN WHILE I'M NOT PAYING ATTENTION.

Losing your home state in a primary run is about as painful as you can get in politics. Losing your state in the general election is a blow, but you can always excuse it by noting the overall political bent of your state was never really in your favor. When it's a Closed Primary and your state DOES bend your way, then you were never really as well-liked as you thought you were...

UPDATE 9:52 PM EDT: I may wrap this up since the Florida stuff is pretty much done for the night and I have other projects to work on.

The big news will be of course the end of the Rubio campaign, which whimpered into the night by failing to win his own state. On the other side of the "Will He Drop Out" question, Kasich won his home state of Ohio, which gives him momentum for the next week or so before Trump humiliates the hell out of him. Cruz is still Cruz, probably in this all the way to the end as need be until he gets a deal he likes.

As for the voter turnout, right now it's looking a little disappointing in terms of overall turnout. There's about 4 million Republicans and 4.9 million Democrats, and yet both parties are totaling up to around a quarter of their registered numbers. There's looking to be about 1.7 million total for the Democrats (with Hillary winning about 1 million), and over 2.1 million for the Republicans (with Trump getting about 1 million himself with Rubio getting over 600,000 and Cruz at 300,000).

What matters is the Winner-Take-All nature of Florida's delegate counts: Trump is now building a serious lead, with Kasich's win the only minor speedbump he's facing tonight. Trump's likely to increase that lead with a win in Illinois, and it's down to North Carolina's final numbers to see if Cruz ekes out a win there to hamper Trump's numbers.

On the Democratic side, Sanders could win Missouri tonight, and maybe Illinois, but Hillary's wins in Florida and North Carolina and now Ohio give her a huge boost in delegate counts as well. I'm not sure if the Winner-Takes-All rules apply to the Democratic side, but still this is a good night for Hillary.

I might check in one more time before midnight, just for another recap or last second thought.

UPDATE 11:39 PM EDT: It bothers me a little bit that Twitter is now chatting up Hillary's likely Veep choices. Settle down, folks. It's still a few months before worrying about that.

There's still buzz - coming out of Politico - that there are a few Republican movers and shakers arguing for a Third Party run against Trump... as though they were even able to beat Trump within their own ranks. It's still a part of the Denial they're facing that their own party has turned against their interests. I doubt it'll go very far. There are few people with any stature who would sign off for this suicide mission.

This is pretty much it for tonight. I'll post something else in the week about my thoughts and fears about the Trumpocalypse. G'night kids.

UPDATE 11:40 PM EDT: At least DUNK CITY won tonight. :)

UPDATE MARCH 16: It's the morning after.

It turns out Hillary won all five states on Tuesday and built a larger delegate lead. Sanders is now talking about trying to rally the Superdelegates to him, but that's unlikely because they're more focused on protecting the party and let's face it Sanders is just a Democrat for this Presidential race (he has little cred within the organization itself). The optics of the Democratic race is now all on Hillary. The best Sanders can do is run an honest race and keep Hillary focused on the key issues.

As for the Republicans... Trump is getting worse. He's making it very clear and very public that he wants his convention and his nomination and he's threatening riots in the streets if he doesn't.

More on this later. There's other news: Obama is announcing his SCOTUS pick to replace Scalia today. The Republican response is going to be such an epic fail, you can tell even before this happens, they've dug themselves into such a deep hole on their obstruction that they're stuck...

Face It, RNC: Rubio's Not Going to Happen

Just even saying that Marco Rubio is having a bad night doesn't really highlight how bad it is. If I could demonstrate with an animated cartoon of a wily coyote falling fifty-thousand feet off a cliff with an anvil dropped on his head with an ACME nuclear bomb for good measure, that STILL would not convey how bad a night he's having tonight.

There's two key primaries this Tuesday, one in Michigan and one in Mississippi, and while Trump has handily won both - much to Kasich's chagrin over Michigan who was hoping for a lead-in win before trying to secure his home state of Ohio next week - the big news has been how BADLY Rubio is failing in both.

In Mississippi, Rubio is not even breaking the five percent mark, hovering around 4.7 percent. Granted, we're talking about a state so Conservative that even South Carolina makes jokes about them being too Far Right. Still, there should be respect for the "sensible Establishment Republican" that the party leadership in-state would give Rubio more to work with. There is no damn way Rubio can go on camera tonight and claim even a moral victory here. C'mon. KASICH is in Third Place at double Rubio's count at 8 percent, and Kasich is the freaking token MODERATE - comparatively speaking - in this race.

In Michigan, hmm, let's see... Here, Rubio is STILL in Fourth Place behind Trump, Kasich and then Cruz. And whereas the top three are in double-digits, Rubio's becoming the pinata at 9 percent.

I can't even rightly joke about Rubio being the THIRD PLACE guy tonight. That's how bad he's losing.

This is the moment in the Primary cycle where the really delusional candidate - the one who'd been propped up by party and media elites as "Our Guy" and the one who Can Save Us From Trump, and has kept crowing about "winning" when he keeps showing up as a runner-up with too few delegates to show for it - is going to have to face facts.

Right now, Marco Rubio's not winning in Florida where the polling has Trump in the lead by at LEAST 8 points and in most polls by double-digits. All the momentum is for Trump: all the organization as the anti-Trump choice seems to be in Cruz's favor. Kasich isn't long for this campaign either, and he's got a better chance of winning Ohio - which can keep him afloat for one more week - than Rubio has of winning the Sunshine State.

Right now, Rubio's not winning a damn thing. If he thinks he's going to be in any position to force a contested, brokered GOP convention in Cleveland, he's crazier than I am. I know, being from Florida does explain for a lot of the blinkered thinking in the Rubio camp, but at some point sanity has to prevail.

I doubt Rubio will drop this week, although getting out before he can get humiliated in Florida is the smart play. He needs that vindication, something and anything to be able to come back for the next election cycle to say "I almost did it before, and I can do better this time in 2020."

Rubio's got few options left in a political career. Due to the vagaries of state law, Rubio had to drop out of running for re-election as a Senator this year in order to run for President. His disdain for actual service is going to make it hard to run for another elected office, even for the Governor's seat that's opening up in 2018. Being the Mayor of Loserville is going to stink up his vitae. His only option is to pray for a Republican Presidential win - OH GOD NO - and beg for a Cabinet position (and if it's Trump winning - GOD HELP US NO - a lot of begging in front of television cameras will be the thing).

His next career is likely going to a think tank or lobbyist firm to earn a fat paycheck telling billionaire donors all the fantasy stories of what could have been if only Rubio won it all. It's the least those billionaires can do for Rubio, after all...

And so, here's one more screenshot of the Honest Bumper Sticker I've been so proud of making this election year:

Super Tuesday 2016, As Midnight Nears

Keeping up with the politics from the noisy side of the hotel overlooking Highway A1A (hello, Florida Library Association conference!), I'm seeing the results pour in from the big bag of Primaries known as Super Tuesday, and am drawing certain conclusions:

Why did they have to have Biker Week the same week as Librarian Week in Daytona?

Ahem.

I hate it when the news channels immediately call a state for a candidate when barely ONE PERCENT of the votes are counted. Dammit, people, at least give us the illusion that the state's elections supervisors are doing their damn jobs before you go slamming around proclaiming a winner. I don't care how good the polling science is - and it usually isn't - you ought to wait an hour or something. I mean, sheesh!

Trump is inching higher in the percentages for the states he's won/is winning, which means that at least within the party ranks itself his Unfavorable numbers cannot cap the Big Mo that happens when the still-undecided or uncaring voters just side with the candidate in the lead. Getting around 49 percent in Massachusetts is scary-looking, even with people telling me that the overall Republican presence in that state is weak.

For my birth state of Georgia, DAMMIT GEORGIA YOU HAD ONE JOB and that was to sane relatively sane and sensible amid a sea of Deep South craziness. Now here you are giving Trump a huge blowout lead and there's no way this boy from Albany GA is going to explain or excuse away this BS. What you doing to a poor boy like me?

Rubio can conceivably win Minnesota tonight. In which case the Establishment wing of the Republican Party will declare victory and end the entire primary season before Trump or Cruz win more states.

For Cruz to win Texas is kind of a given, as that is his home state and that among the non-Trump candidates Cruz was likeliest to remain popular within the party ranks back home (Rubio and Kasich are having problems). The surprising thing is Cruz's performance in Oklahoma, which gets him a third state win and some more delegates, and the likelier chances of making Trump's nomination win harder to reach. Will more of the Establishment backers side with Cruz over Rubio? ...Nah, messing with ya. Cruz is THAT unpopular in the elite circles.

On the Democratic side of things, Hillary as expected is cleaning up most of the states and by significant numbers. Oklahoma is breaking for Sanders, which is surprising, and was an easy win in Vermont his home state. Massachusetts is currently too close to call, but if Hillary clinches what was expected to be a Sanders state might be a huge blow to the Socialist Senator's campaign.

Just remember, this is all good for Marco Rubio, who in his THIRD PLACE position among Republican delegates is clearly going to be the next President of the United States. Which will be a historic win as nobody ever won the White House from THIRD PLACE in his Primary cycle before. Kind of makes the entire general election cycle from August to November anti-climatic, you think?