What If: the 2024 President Election Is an Honest-to-God Harris Landslide

Update: All of this was wrong. All of this was a lie. All of America is fucked up, don't tell me otherwise.

I'm still thinking about that USA Today report about early voting where Kamala Harris has a 63 percent lead in the ballots over trump's anemic 34 percent (with the difference going to third parties, natch).

Given how most of the modern - at least 21st Century - Presidential elections were not so heavily favored either way - balancing between 52-47 percent or closer - seeing THAT huge of a lead is stunning (and stirring up way too much hope for my own good, I admit it).

Logic dictates that the early voting is not a full representation of the likely voter turnout for this cycle. We're barely at a quarter of expected turnout - although with a week to go the numbers will go up - and more than half of the voters tend to wait until Election Day (some because they're still undecided, many because it's kinda traditional) anyway. We should expect a downward shift on that percentage lead to where the voting share fits the trends of a closer (say 55-45) election result.

We could be looking at the likelihood that a large number of Democratic - or Dem-leaning Independents - are voting earlier than the more traditional Republican voters who wait... except those early voting numbers show a near-level balance of Dem and GOP voters. So that narrative's a bit off.

The implications I'm seeing are 1) this is how the voting trends are going, and 2) there's a shocking number of Republican voters adding to that 63 percent Harris lead that can't be ignored.

So (dammit, my giddiness is getting the better of me), we are within the realm of positing a "What If": What if Harris really is getting close to 63 percent of the national vote this November?

One thing we shouldn't do is speculate on the final turnout numbers. Although there's signs of increased voter registration, there's still no guarantee of increased voter turnout (although the turnout numbers did go up in 2020 due to excessive use of mail-in ballots that made it easier to do so).

So let's go by the 2020 total turnout count, which was 158,429,631 Americans.

If that percentage trend (63) persists for Harris, she's looking at roughly 99,810,667 votes.

(jaw drops)

Considering Biden got roughly 51 percent and a total of 81,283,501 votes, I'd say that's a huge boost to the collective Democratic ego.

By comparison, trump's possible 34 percent will garner around 53,866,704 votes. It will be a decided drop off from the 74,223,975 he got in 2020 and also below his 2016 numbers of 62,984,828. It would be a massive rejection by voters tired of trump's antics the third time around.

Not only would the percentage difference be huge (Harris will win by 29 percent) but the vote total will be embarrassing (Harris will win by 45,943,963 votes). trump and the Republicans will try to scream "stolen votes," but on a scale that large there's no way even Far Right judges will buy that (or risk challenging it). 

(Also: Try imagining trump calling the Georgia Secretary of State and begging him to "find me 45 million votes.")

It would be a legitimate blowout for a Presidential election, something we haven't seen in decades. Looking back, the next closest election with that huge a percentage win gap was in 1984 when Reagan demolished Mondale 58 to 40 percent. Reagan won the Electoral votes of 49(!) states with roughly 54 million over 37 million. There's a reason why Democrats have campaigned with little joy until now, and that smackdown inflicted a ton of PTSD for years afterward.

You could consider Nixon's victory in 1972 over McGovern one of the biggest results in all of U.S. history - where he won 60 percent over McGovern's 37 for a massive popular vote win 47 million over 29 million - but then you have to remember Nixon and his CREEPs orchestrated a dirty tricks campaign to guarantee running against a massively unpopular McGovern.

The most recent Democratic win on this scale would be in 1964, with LBJ riding on Kennedy's legacy and against an (then) extreme conservative opponent in Goldwater where Johnson got 61 percent over Goldwater's 38 percent and a 43 million over 27 million popular vote turnout. 

I could go back to 1936 when FDR blew Alf Landon out of the water with a 60 percent vs. 36 percent result, but you get my drift. Harris getting 63 percent would top every other electoral trouncing to achieve a Blowout For the Ages. Even if that percentage slides down, if she's anywhere near Reagan's 58 percent turnout we're still talking a huge win trump and the GOP can't lie about.

One other thing that accompanied those big blowouts in 1984, 1972, 1964, and 1936 (and even the milder landslides we'd see from Eisenhower's 1952-1956 wins for example) were the Electoral College results (maps are from the 270towin website):

It would be pretty to see a Harris/Walz Electoral Map where most of the United States will color in as Blue...

I would argue that back in those days the geographic divisions between Democratic and Republican - or Liberal and Conservative - voters were not as severe as we have today. Back then, the states were pretty well mixed between the major parties, and moderates between them would slide one election to the next between candidates without fear of being disloyal. 

You could get an Electoral College map that would overexaggerate the popular vote wins because the winning candidate got past the bare minimum to win there (Mondale almost lost his home state in 1984 by 2000 votes! And we know how Hillary lost Wisconsin and Michigan by similar margins to our detriment...). In today's partisan environment - and where liberals and conservatives relocated to states more attuned to their worldviews - it's not as likely for Harris to flip so many states Democratic the way LBJ and FDR did in their day. 

Having said that, if Harris is garnering - and keeping - 63 percent of voters by Election Day, that HAS to mean a large number of once-solid Republicans are abandoning their partisan stance (at least for this cycle), and across a number of otherwise solid Republican-held Red states to where a massive Electoral College win is in the pipeline. Not just Harris keeping the states Biden won in 2020, and not just flipping key battleground states like North Carolina and maybe Florida, and not just the almost-real possibility of finally flipping Texas: I'm talking nearly every Red state could be in play with those numbers (save for of course deep Red states like West Virginia, South Carolina, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho). Dear 9 readers of this blog: Even ALASKA is in play.

...

Okay, with all THAT said, this "What If" fantasy is pretty to think so, but in the real world my track record for predicting things hasn't been all that great to begin with.

Like I said near the beginning of this wishful thinking, that early 63 percent lead can easily slide down as more voters show up and if more of them are leaning Republican and trump. The trend may look nice but actual voter turnout is what counts, and the early pro-Harris counts from Republican voters could just be that voting bloc getting their ballots done before they change their minds.

But... given that a sizable GOP voter bloc IS voting Harris and getting away from the once-rigid partisan voting habits, we ought to consider the reality that Harris is getting way above the now-standard 50-to-52 percent of winning we've seen in recent cycles. Even if Harris matches the more modest result of Obama's big win in 2008 of 53 percent, we're talking 83 million votes (a nice boost over 2020) and numbers that trump can't challenge.

Voter turnout remains key, fellow Americans.

We need 99 million or so of y'all to show up and vote Harris/Walz for the blowout we need to keep America free from trumpian misrule.

This is what 99 million Harris votes could look like

Let's do this.

Think Happy Thoughts

I woke up Tuesday morning to a bad thought that if I waited until Election Day itself - November 5th, kiddos! - that I could show up to my precinct and find out the local Republicans somehow submitted a fake ballot in my name and take away my vote. 

Paranoid as I was - they can't really do that, right? - I decided to forgo the tradition of voting on the day itself. I went to the Bartow Early Voting location to go ahead and get my vote in the machine.

At the Polk Street Community Center

As I talked about earlier, there were key matters to vote on this 2024 election cycle, above all making sure donald "34 Felony Counts" trump won't cheat his way back into the White House and voting for a saner, competent Kamala Harris:

BALLZ TO THE WALZ, AMERICA

I made sure to vote for the Senate seat:

FCK YOU, "MEDICARE FRAUD" SCOTT

I made sure to vote Democratic for the Congressional, State legislative, and county seats by the by.

And of the six Florida Amendment referenda, here's my votes YES on Three (decriminalizing marijuana) and Yes on Four (Abortion rights for women).

Damn, the ballot sheets are longer than my arm...

Let there be no confusion: This is about letting
women control their own bodies instead of the
Culture War wingnuts

Part of me is worried I didn't ink that completely filled...

So now at least for myself, it's all over except waiting for the ballot counts.

And GODS HELP ME, I'm still stressed about it. And I know I'm not the only one. 

So let's try to look for the positivity reflected in how there is a better mood among Democratic and Left-leaning Independent voters heading into November. Anne Laurie over at Balloon Juice shared some good vibes via a post on Substack from Kevin Dillon:

My texts are full these days of “are we gonna be okay?” and, then, a beat later, “are you really sure?” Over and over, my answers are basically “yes” and “as sure as I can be...”

So, to save some time and in the spirit of “to hell with it,” here in one place is what data and my gut tell me I believe: she’ll win and outperform the polls. Trump will be rejected, as he has been in every election since he first became president - 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 - either where he was on the ballot directly or by proxy through candidates closely identified with him, including in multiple of the same swing states we’re all obsessing over now.

His campaign’s relentless focus on anti-trans ads will come to be seen as an epic strategic blunder, in addition to unforgivably morally repugnant. We’ll acknowledge that the supposedly disciplined, well-planned campaign to beat Biden never quite found its footing ever again once the candidate changed. We’ll remember that his one and only, and very close, win in 2016 came when he was, despite controversy, new and fresh and funny (to his people at least - and no small amount of journalists.) He was energetic, went EVERYWHERE, and was able to at least occasionally give the impression of being in on the joke and enjoying himself. In 2016, he had an underrated strategic ambiguity on what kind of Republican he was, whether promising to protect Social Security or maintaining a wink-wink ambivalence on abortion, aided by voters’ inability to truly imagine him doing the most outrageous things, or the horror of Roe being overturned. In his own way, he had a kind of disciplined, positive and constructive message about what he would do: make America great again, build the wall, drain the swamp. In 2024, he has none of it, much less the vitality and clarity of eight years ago.

We’re going to see afresh what’s been staring us in the face since 2022: Dobbs was a political earthquake, with aftershocks still reverberating out. It wasn’t just digested and processed in 2022 and now behind us. As much as Roe catalyzed a new movement for its opponents, brought in new groups of voters (many crossing old partisan lines), and energized activists for decades; Dobbs is doing the same here and now.

To the extent poll error happens, I believe it is likelier to be in her favor than his after eight years of pollsters obsessively focused on how to not miss Trump supporters. We are all understandably so traumatized by 2016’s loss, and so many were surprised by 2020’s margin (though notably, not the Biden campaign itself) that, even though there are fairly convincing theories for how each happened, we’ve become hostages of superstition and anxiety - even when we can’t quite articulate a good theory for why it would happen this time. And all this despite the various modeling geniuses gently and repeatedly reminding us there’s no iron law that every error happens in the same direction cycle after cycle, indeed that it might be a little weird for it to happen three cycles in a row...

We have to remind ourselves that trump's NEVER won the popular vote, that he's incredibly unpopular among the broad range of voters (even among some Republicans). We need to remember that unpopularity hurts him against Harris whose popularity numbers have gone up during the final stretch of the campaign (much like Obama's in 2008). I've said before people tend to vote for the candidate they like the most - it's not rational but emotional - and similar to Biden (who was popular then) outperforming trump in 2020 Harris can do the same this 2024.

Like Dillon noted, a lot of us on the Center-Left of the political spectrum were emotionally scarred  watching trump grab the Electoral College away from the popular vote winner Hillary (her unpopularity due to decades of hathos was a major factor in her loss). A lot of us still can't comprehend how 74 million people voted for trump in 2020 after all of the incompetency, aggression, open graft, and failures of his administration; and we're arguably terrified of the possibility he's convinced even more to vote again for him after his felony convictions and civil court fraud and rape findings.

We have to look to the sizable number of Republican voters showing signs of refusing to vote for trump again. There is hefty opposition by former GOP officials and former members of trump's own Cabinet, publicly denouncing him on a scale never before seen. We never had a similar number of aides and Cabinet Secretaries do this to the likes of Nixon or Ford or Carter or Reagan or Bush the Elder or Bill Clinton or Bush the Lesser or Obama; even when those administrations - especially Dubya's considering the failures of the economy and the mismanaged War on Terror - were clear disasters. These are things even disconnected voters will notice as they make their choice.

We need to enjoy the reality of how Harris and her Veep co-runner Walz are conducting themselves in this last mad dash to the finish line: With joy and exuberance and feistiness and hope. We need that hope to convert into turnout by the millions - higher than the 81 million Biden secured in 2020 - and to regain a kind of spiritual balance we lost 8 years ago.

Let's get the vote out, everyone, and vote for the right things: Vote for sanity and stability in the White House with Kamala. Vote for women's rights and freedom from wingnut cruelty. Vote for better representatives in our legislatures both state and federal. Vote FOR the bright future of 2025 and not the darkness of a trumpian dystopia.

(Hands still shaking while drinking iced tea) I'm calm... I'm perfectly fine... I AM A CENTER OF PEACE AND SERENITY! Ahem. Sorry.

Good News: September 2024 Edition

Gods, I feel like a negative nabob half the time. So let's try some good news.

I may not trust the polls but the late September numbers keep favoring Kamala Harris for the presidency over donald "34 count felon" trump.

Harris leads over trump in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Again, polls don't vote, voters do: So get the damn vote out Democrats.

Just a reminder that the mainstream media polling services - due to billionaire owners or their own craven needs - skew too much rural and conservative, meaning the pro-Kamala numbers should be even more in her favor (and that the tight races in other battleground states aren't really favoring trump).

The polling, for example, shows a tighter race in Alaska for Harris and Democrats than the past 30 years. Harris' numbers in Nebraska - where the shared Electoral College results by congressional district established a single EV dot in a Red State - are strong enough that the Republican Party is trying to pressure the state legislature to undo the shared Electoral and go Winner-Take-All. But there's signs Harris - thanks to her VP ally Tim Walz, who's from Nebraska - could flip the whole state Blue. Again, get the voters out to vote this November, Democrats. (Psst: Fight for EVERY state - well okay maybe not West Virginia, that's a lost cause - just to keep trump from clearing the Electoral College hurdle!)

Thanks to Richardson's escalating scandals, there's a growing chance Harris - and the whole Democratic ticket - can clinch North Carolina. If that happens alongside Harris reclaiming the battleground states Biden won in 2020, there is no way trump and his lackeys can stop the count and claim "they stole the election".

Even trump's schemes to undo the results are going to hit a wall: the Electoral Count and Presidential Transition Act of 2022. That cleaned up a number of loopholes and grey areas at the state level about challenging election results, and required election certifications done certain ways to minimize partisan sabotage. Granted, trump's legal team are going to test that law and insist on undermining the vote counts in key states/counties, but considering how their lack of evidence undercut their efforts in 2020 will be the same this 2024, it's doubtful he and his lawyers will prevail (the one negative thing to consider: That the trump-loving Supreme Court will break the entire Constitution in his favor when his legal battles reach their bench).

A Presidential win for Harris/Walz won't be enough: which is why the signs of a 2024 Blue Wave affecting the Congressional/Senate races provide a positive buzz. Again, voter turnout matters.

The encouraging news on that front: Democratic voter enthusiasm is increasing this 2024.

Voter turnout remains key, America. Republican efforts at voter suppression can't stop that, no matter how hard they try. If we can get the turnout for Kamala over 81 million - Biden's record - trump and the Republicans can't overcome that.

All this good news comes with that call to action: Get the damn vote out.

Get to work, America.

The Portents of September 2024

So heading into September of this year of election, everything turns into a horse race and every poll gets parsed for omens and portents like the days of Rome (mmm, Rome).

I've gotten out of favor with the constant, obsessive polling that's been going on since at least 2012. While the polling then worked out and proved itself, afterwards the Republicans and the Far Right have figured out how to skew the numbers to where the last couple of election cycles weren't as easily predicted. We're at the point where the polling services are intentionally skewing their populations more rural - and conservative - to where you can't trust them.

Thing is, as the election itself draws nearer, the pollsters do shift their habits to better reflect the two demographics they pursue: Likely Voters and Registered Voters. So at this point, the polling gets to be a little more accurate, although we need to take all of it with a grain of salt (just like the Romans used salt for everyt... ow stop hitting me).

So while we can't take polls for granted this September, looking at results like this from Bloomberg/Morning Consult at least will give us Harris/Walz supporters a good reason to wake up every morning and campaign for voter turnout.

Or as Taniel tweets (STOP CALLING IT X, ELON) keeping track of the Electoral College: 

New Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls (RVs here):

Wisconsin: Harris 52/44
Pennsylvania: Harris 51/47
Nevada: Harris 49/45
Michigan: Harris 49/46
[that's 270+]
Georgia: Harris 49/47
North Carolina: Harris 49/47
Arizona: 48/48

— Taniel (@Taniel) August 29, 2024

Considering what we consider a "battleground state" is something within 1-2 points, to have Wisconsin going for Harris well above "margin of error" should make that state a solid Blue.

Here's where it's good news: Wisconsin is one of the states trump was planning on sowing chaos to prevent an Electoral College count from even happening. If it's too big of a blowout, even trump's cries of "stollen votes" won't be believable.

The growing margins for Harris in places like Michigan and Nevada help solidify the likelihood trump and his lackeys can't deny the Electoral College results. Granted, trump will do everything to prevent Georgia or Arizona getting called - especially with the Georgia Elections Board setting up new rules that would allow for massive tampering by Republicans - but if all the other battleground states go Democratic, the mixed party leadership in those states make it harder to rig the results. As soon as Harris/Walz cross that 270 finish line, trump's whole stunt to throw the results to the House of Representatives becomes moot.

What the map looks like based on the Bloomberg poll.
We can try and flip more states Blue, by the way...

This is the map trump wants, unless Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada
flip Red to him, in which case we're fucked.

It'll then be an issue of both houses of Congress certifying the Electoral results, and unless Republicans control both next January there's every likelihood enough rational members of the GOP will certify Harris' win.

So that's one of the other things we need to consider this September: It's NOT JUST THE PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE ON THE LINE.

Democrats and Left-leaning Independent voters need to understand that voting for every Democratic candidate for the Senate and the House matter as well. To truly ensure trump can't steal his way back into the White House, there needs to be an Honest-to-God Blue Wave for 2024 covering all 50 states and covering every elected office on the ballot.

GET THE DAMN VOTE OUT, EVERYBODY.

And for the Love of God and Country and Mom and Apple Pie and college football - I blame UF's loss on Ben Sasse's scandals by the by - vote Blue, America.

The Joy

Update: Thank you Steve in Manhattan at Crooks & Liars for sharing this article at Mike's Blog Round-Up! Hope everyone enjoyed the DNC this week, hope you've ordered your BALLZ TO THE WALZ t-shirts like I have, and get the damn vote out for every Democratic candidate across all 50 states! Let's EFFING GOOOOO....

There is a thrill to the Democratic Party campaign I haven't seen in ages.

The current national convention in Chicago is humming with delight, musicians showing up to perform during otherwise staid roll calls, genuine laughs and cheers from audiences not just sitting there applauding politely on cue. For all of the discontent from the media elites, and for the legitimate criticisms from protestors outside that the party is ignoring the suffering in Gaza, and for all the dread about another trump attempt to hijack the elections; the Democratic voting base is enjoying the moment with the kind of hope for the future not seen since Obama's victorious celebration in Grant Park when he won in 2008.

Amanda Marcotte at Salon is documenting the atrocities sorry bad habit, documenting the pleasantries:

Organizers kicked off the Democratic National Convention by immediately demonstrating that they know how to throw a party better than Republicans. Democrats scheduled their elderly leader who rambles on too long for the first night, not the last. President Joe Biden's Monday night speech started slow and only got more boring, but the crowd cheered him gamely, chanting, "Thank you, Joe!" Part of that was real gratitude for the surprisingly effective job he's done in his four years in office. But the cheers reflected the attendees' joy at knowing this whole thing is done with. It's time to move forward with a candidate who embodies their hopes for the future...

That word matters.

In contrast, Donald Trump's capstone speech at the Republican National Convention was disastrous. Biden may have been long-winded and boring, but Trump was all those things while also sounding objectively weird. His speech ping-ponged between self-pity and incoherence, delivered in that odd sing-song quiet voice he uses when his aides tell him to act "serious." The crowd, always eager to flatter the cult leader's ego, cheered, but it felt forced and exhausted...

It's odd how the RNC was barely a month ago, and yet is utterly forgettable now. The only detail I can recall from it was how a number of attendees band-aided their ear in honor of trump's surviving that assassination attempt the week before... an event that has already dropped off of most people's awareness and something that failed to generate any level of sympathy or concern outside of the MAGA base.

As Andrew O'Hehir wrote about the RNC last month, the convention was "a startlingly quiet, polite, low-energy event." We did witness the audience get hyped up for Hulk Hogan, but even that has caveats: It was the last night, so more people bothered to show up. Hogan is a professional wrestler, an expert at riling up crowds over nonsense. (Though the actual message of his speech was terrifying and fascistic.) And frankly, after four days of listlessly wandering around hoping something interesting might happen, the attendees seemed eager to feel something. But Trump destroyed Hogan's hard work with his whining, droning, weird speech. 

On Tuesday night, Harris made the contrast crystal clear by holding a rally at the Fiserv Forum, where the RNC was held. (Personal insert: Milwaukee is literally up the road from Chicago, so Harris traveling to Fiserv wasn't a burden) It speaks volumes about the enthusiasm gap that it's not even surprising that the turnout and volume at this Harris rally outdid what Trump got at his own convention last month.

The difference was dramatic enough that Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, appeared at the DNC by remote video from Milwaukee. It created the visual effect of more than doubling what Trump was able to turn, despite covering his ear with a comically oversized bandage and everything...

One of the things about long political campaigns is the belief in Momentum (the Big Mo as Bush the Elder called it), and if the differences between the party conventions are any evidence, all of the Big Mo is with Kamala:

With Harris as the nominee, however, you can feel Democratic voters unclenching. This is not a crowd that feels "triggered." The mood is giddy. There's a scent of hope in the air. There's plenty of criticism of Trump, but it's no longer coming from a place of cornered animals trying to survive. The tone towards that babbling old fascist is one of contempt. Instead of flinching, Democrats are laughing in Trump's face. No wonder he's even more obsessed with crowd sizes and ratings than usual. He used to be the one offering entertainment value, even if it was only to his base that just wanted to inflict pain on their perceived enemies. Now it's Harris who is captivating, this time to a nation that wants to feel something other than despair...

I can speak to the enthusiasm among the political circles I keep: both the TNC Horde and the Balloon Juice commentariat are bouncing off the walls like it's a romper room. Hell, even the Rude Pundit is giddy:

It was simple. I thought, "Man, we need this." And by "this," I mean all the joy and energy and possibility being embodied on that stage. But it's not only about this moment. We need this because the one thing that's been missing as we emerged from the worst part of the Covid pandemic (and recognizing that Covid is still very much a problem) is a catharsis, some release where we all recognize that we survived. And it's not just a catharsis for getting through the lockdowns and mass deaths and required health safety measures. It's a catharsis for surviving the presidency of Donald Trump, which took this country down some incredibly dark alleys, leaving it battered and weary, with a good deal of PTSD.

We couldn't actually celebrate, or even fully exhale, because hanging over all of us was the tension of what would bring the Trump saga to its end. We waited for something to validate the anger we had and to demonstrate that things would be different. We hoped that Trump would be convicted and sent to prison, but that didn't happen and may not. 

The election of Joe Biden was an absolutely necessary step to get to this point. We needed someone who knew how the federal government worked inside and out, an old hand to get to the bridge and right the ship, weld the holes, scrub off the rust, get rid of the piles of garbage, and get us back on course, all while restocking the bar. We were all scared out of our weary minds in 2020, awaiting the even deadlier next surge of Covid deaths that was coming in January 2021. Then January 6th happened, and our sense of security in the very things that are supposed to function in this country were undermined, all while watching a large percentage of the population go down a red-capped abyss of crazy and conspiracies they will likely never return from. Biden's skill was in allowing the rest of us to chill out, to see that the government hadn't lost the ability to actually work.

In the last few months, though, everything kept hitting us, even as Trump was found guilty or liable, owing hundreds of millions of dollars. All of it still didn't lead us to anything like a feeling of completion, a feeling we could, indeed, move on. We were hit again and again with insane Supreme Court decisions, with the polls that showed Biden losing, with Biden's obvious signs of aging, with this feeling that it was all going to go south again. We would stick by Biden if we had to (and more than a few were doing so gladly), but, my god, we needed celebration. We needed joy. Real joy, not the kind of joy that says, "We made it," but the joy that says, "We crushed it." We need to face our American demons, who are easily identifiable, and we need to unify to exorcise them and send them back to whatever crevices in the earth they crawled out of, not just defeat them at the polls...

A previous Democratic leader once clarified that "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself," but FDR spoke to the rational demands of the moment and to the urgency of recovering from the Great Depression. The demands and urgency we face today have more to do with recovering from the emotional traumas of things like 9/11, the failed War on Terror, the economic chaos threatened by Silicon Valley "disruptors" looking to profit from fanciful shell games, the overwhelming Culture War madness of misogynists looking to take rights away from women and of racists looking to take rights away from ethnics they deemed "Other".

The opposite emotion to Fear in many ways is Joy, a means to build well-being for the self, the delight of the new and the willingness to celebrate. In the face of Republican Fearmongering, it has been a long time since Democrats fought back using Joy not as a shield but as a weapon, cutting through the dour unhappiness of the likes of trump and JD Vance who scowl at their rallies and lie about how America is "doomed" unless they take over as our overlords.

The Democrats are campaigning this year on Joy, not as a slogan but as an emotional buttress, a foundation on which all other policy positions will rest, allowing the nation to build not only on the successes of Biden's administration but on the future of Harris' potential tenure.

This is a campaign movement of Joy that can thrive, that can inspire millions to turn out to vote, with every sign this post-convention that the Democratic ground game will run with this emotion all the way to victory in 2024.

...

Just remember to keep the lawyers on payroll to stop trump and his Republican lackeys from the electoral chaos they're planning to unleash, please and thank you.

Let's Effing Go: Ballz to the Walz Shirt Is HERE

It took forever, but the Ballz to the Walz shirt finally got in the mailbox!

And it fits (so far, things may shrink in the wash, alas)!

The arched eyebrow is noticeable, but I think I need to smile a little more.

Oh, and the Democratic National Convention starts tonight.

LET'S EFFING GO! LET'S WIN ALL 50 STATES (well okay maybe not Idaho)!!!

BALLZ

TO

THE

WALZ

Honest Bumper Stickers 2024: Phase One In Which DougJBalloon Get His Oats

Hey kids, remember those brief fun moments when I carved out Honest Bumper Stickers?

Like this one?

Well, here's 2024, the candidates are set, the conventions are happening (or have happened), and it's time to see if I can remember how Inkscape works!

Okay, now that I've gotten THAT out of my system... HERE'S SOME MORE!

because the saying "Balls to the Walls" is a term to go full speed, and...
and... (sigh) look, I *have* to explain it, not everybody gets it!

And just to be fair, I crafted a couple of trump-friendly bumper stickers for this election cycle!

took me hours to find a decent
commons use image of prison bars

I'd make one for the struggling, tone-deaf, cruel-to-animals RFK Jr campaign: Alas I do have standards.

The Ballz to the Walz T-Shirt Exists

Actually there's a number of t-shirts, but THIS one just "pops" don't it!!!

I think that's Biden's aviator sunglasses y'all

So it's on sale at Etsy. Click on that link. No excuses. GO. BUY IT! IT EVEN COMES IN CHAMBRAY!!!

...that's "light blue" to you peeps.

BALLZ TO THE WALZ, AMERICA!

LET'S FUCKING GOOOOOO! GET THE VOTE OUT, DEMOCRATS!

Suck it, trump. Back to the couch for you, Vance.

Ballz to the Walz, Dems

I said this earlier about the importance of making a Vice Presidential pick for your campaign: Your pick sets the tone.

So the tone Kamala Harris set for the Democratic Party by selecting Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate is this:

BALLZ TO THE WALZ, BABY.

What? It's a perfectly cromulent phrase from my youth as a suburban white punk. It means to "go all out," to blitz, to push forward with great force, to fight and not stop until the fight is done. Learned it in middle school, said it through high school, and then didn't really say it much in college because the study load was a bit fatiguing.

I am awaiting the inevitable t-shirt from Etsy, by the by.

The Balloon Juice community is all aflutter, as are my folks from the TNC Horde. To get a sense of why, here's Russell Berman at the Atlantic (paywalled) to explain it some:

In the realm of presidential politics, progressives have become accustomed to disappointment. Joe Biden wasn’t their first (or second) choice in 2020. Nor, for that matter, was Kamala Harris. And Democratic nominees typically pick moderates for their running mates. So when Harris announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her choice for vice president this morning, progressives experienced an unusual feeling: elation...

Progressives had latched onto Walz’s dark-horse candidacy over the past two weeks, seeing him as a more appealing option, both ideologically and politically, than Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, whom many believed to be the front-runner. Walz, a former teacher and high-school football coach, impressed liberals with his governing success in Minnesota, where he’s signed legislation enacting paid family leave, expanding the child-tax credit, protecting abortion rights, and lowering the cost of insulin. More recently—and perhaps more important—he charmed them with his folksy takedowns on cable news of Donald Trump and J. D. Vance.

“He’s just plainspoken and direct, and he’s very funny,” Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland, who served with Walz in the House, told me. “He’s got the common touch, and I think it’s an ingenious choice.”

In Walz, progressives believe they have found a Democrat who can connect with rural and white working-class voters in the crucial battlegrounds of the Midwest without compromising on the party’s policy platform. “He’s the anti-elite candidate. He comes across as the Everyman,” Joseph Geevarghese, the executive director of the progressive group Our Revolution, told me this morning. He called Walz “a perfect counterbalance” to Harris, whom Republicans have tried to portray as, in his words, “an out-of-touch California elite...”

Harris’s announcement drew praise across a wide ideological spectrum, from Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. In the final days leading up to the selection, however, the largely behind-the-scenes contest between Walz and Shapiro had become a stand-in for larger Democratic fights that the party’s embrace of Harris had otherwise suppressed. The proxy war dismayed some party allies, who urged progressives to stop their attacks on Shapiro. “It’s a false binary,” Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, told me. She said that although she was “ecstatic” about the choice of Walz, she would have been just as happy if Harris had picked Shapiro or any of the other finalists, including Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona and Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky...

Harris' selection of a popular regional governor does more than just help lock in Minnesota: Walz's brand of Democratic politics has the means to appeal across the entire Rust Belt (every state in the Great Lakes region) that can provide the same electoral appeal that Shapiro or Beshear (or Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan) could have provided.

But with Walz you get a little more: Someone with a personal narrative - he and his wife used In-Vitro to have children, for example - in clear opposition to the fearmongering hypocrisy that trump's presidential ticket is offering to voters. He's not only been a soldier - 24 years of National Guard service in the artillery, putting in the years most other political wannabes would shrug off - but also a high school social sciences teacher and football coach. Someone who would be a key figure in any small town community across America.

And while he was a high school football coach - leading his team to the state finals, no less - he took the time to become the faculty advisor of that school's first Gay/Straight Alliance student group. This is one of many reasons why progressives are elated: Walz is Pro-People, has been since even before Obama and Biden stood public for gay marriage.

Where trump's pick of Vance doubled down on trump's open hostility towards immigrants, women, blacks, gays, trans, and young people, Harris' pick of Walz doubled down on getting a candidate who's eager and grinning from ear to ear and willing to work on solving problems instead of making things worse.

Balls to the walls, guys. Let's get the vote out for Dems this year.

The Zeal in the Moment

Revolution doesn't have to do with smashing something; it has to do with bringing something forth. If you spend all your time thinking about that which you are attacking, then you are negatively bound to it. You have to find the zeal in yourself and bring that out.
-- Joseph Campbell, Pathways to Bliss: Mythology and Personal Transformation

Some thoughts I'm trying to put together over the past week since Biden dropped from the race and threw his support to Kamala Harris.

The quick shift between Biden to Harris was like a seismic turnaround. Where there had been guarded hope among the Biden supporters - shaken by the poor debate performance this June - there is unabashed enthusiasm now among the Democratic and Left-leaning voting base.

Within a day of the announcement that Biden was stepping aside in the campaign and throwing all his support to his Vice President, fundraising for Kamala went through the roof setting records throughout the week (via Aamer Madhani and Bill Barrow at AP News): 

Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has raised $200 million since she emerged as the likely Democratic presidential nominee last week, an eyepopping haul in her race against the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump.

The campaign, which announced its latest fundraising total on Sunday, said the bulk of the donations — 66% — comes from first-time contributors in the 2024 election cycle and were made after President Joe Biden announced his exit from the race and endorsed Harris.

Over 170,000 volunteers have also signed up to help the Harris campaign with phone banking, canvassing and other get-out-the-vote efforts. Election Day is 100 days away.

“The momentum and energy for Vice President Harris is real — and so are the fundamentals of this race: this election will be very close and decided by a small number of voters in just a few states,” Michael Tyler, the campaign’s communications director, wrote in a memo...

Another thing that Biden's announcement did was undercut any momentum trump and the Republicans were hoping to get out of their just-finished convention in Milwaukee (which had turned into a rather dull, alienating affair). Instead of talking about trump's pick of JD Vance for his Veep, instead of talking about trump's bravado over surviving an assassination attempt... The mainstream media had focused on all the increased interest in Kamala (or worse, focused on how bad a pick Vance is turning into. But that's another story...)

As part of the fundraising pace, more and more social-media driven events crowded the attention. A "White Women for Kamala" Zoom call turned out 100,000 viewers and literally broke the chat app. Other Zoom events fed off the momentum of that, leading up to one that even I - and my cats - could partake: White Dudes for Kamala.

Childless Cat Guy ready for #whitedudesforharris pic.twitter.com/ODQCV0RnBa

— Witty Librarian 2024 (@PaulWartenberg) July 29, 2024

Jeff Bridges showed up! THE DUDE HIMSELF, AND HE ABIDES.

Luke Skywalker showed up. Every Democratic White Male - vying for the Veep spot - showed up. My cat Ocean rested on the sofa - or was trying to protect it from Vance (again, another story) - and watched alongside me.

Even the cats - and the hoomans they own - are excited in the shift towards Kamala as the Democratic standard bearer.

All that said, with all this zeal and raised hopes for the Democratic ticket, the realities of the campaign are still here.

Voter turnout is everything. The good thing about the Kamala Bump is how this excitement will get not only the Democratic base turning up at the polls in November, but also the undecideds and waverers who are no longer distracted by the "Biden's too old" hammering the GOP was inflicting on the national psyche.

This shift has noticeably caught the Republicans off-balance. Everything they've done since 2020 to negate any appeal for Biden has been for nothing. The grandstanding and impeachment threats from the GOP-controlled House since 2023 has turned into a meaningless joke. The one thing the Far Right had as an attack on Joe was his age: Now that becomes a liability for an obviously elderly, cranky, ill-looking, dementia-driven trump.

The Republicans will clearly stay on the attack, but the messaging is going to be so obvious and grating it ought to alienate any remaining Independent and undecided voters they needed to draw in. The wingnut media is already going after Kamala's birth status, trying to rehash the Birther conspiracy nonsense they tried against Obama. But it never worked against Obama in the first place.

They'll also try attacking Harris for her gender, bringing out the worst of the Far Right misogyny already on display with the GOP attacks on abortion rights, birth control, and women's roles in the workplace. They'll try all the stuff they used on Hillary Clinton back in 2016, dragging out all the fearmongering towards feminism they know to use. But Kamala isn't Hillary: Where the Beltway Media spent decades since 1992 turning Hillary into a hated figure on the national stage, Kamala doesn't have that disadvantage. Harris' favorables are already well above the dismal numbers Hillary had that reduced voter turnout for her.

That was the thing in 2016: Clinton won the popular vote, but not by much, and had lost voters in key battleground states to where the Electoral College flipped to trump. Hillary's unpopularity in those states - driven by constant negative reporting by the media - were her undoing. 

Kamala Harris doesn't have that disadvantage: For all the noise the GOP can bring to the table, there are no realistic scandals to hit Harris with. Her dating life 20 years ago is already well-known and unrelated to her current situation as a happily-married wife. The Republicans can't effectively go after her history as a state prosecutor or State Attorney General without undermining their own (false) Law And Order ideology. They'll accuse her of being a "San Francisco Socialist" but that doesn't have much appeal outside of the already-rabid MAGA base.

All said, the enthusiasm - the zeal - for the Democratic voter base is truly alit and gaining momentum by the hour.

It's all a question now of getting voter turnout for the Democrats across all 50 states to make any attempts by trump and his cronies to steal the results impossible to pull off.

GET THE VOTE OUT FOR HARRIS, AMERICA. Your cats demand it.

Everything Changed Today

So I woke up today to this stuff getting posted in Bluesky Social, but because I haven't figured out how to embed those posts into this blog I went to Twitter (fuck you, Elon, it's not X) to do this:

Aaron Sorkin published an op-ed in NYT this morning that calls on Democrats to nominate a Republican in place of Pres. Biden next month at the convention, specifically Mitt Romney. For real. Don't click on it. Don't read it. I promise you ain't missing anything.

Parody has died. pic.twitter.com/Ricu3sjIJE

— Charlotte Clymer 🇺🇦 (@cmclymer) July 21, 2024

"I FEEL LIKE I'M TAKING CRAZY PILLS" times infinity.

It case the tweet goes bad, I screen-captured:

This? This is what you get when you think
quoting the HMS Pinafore all the time makes you smart.

I did read it just to see if it's as bad as Clymer says, and Gods yes it's terrible. Sorkin's idea of a unity candidate is - get this - going for a Republican candidate... Mitt Romney.

MITT FCKING ROMNEY?!

Not only is it offensive to suggest the Democrats have to roll over and take a REPUBLICAN on their ticket, but to go with Romney whose sole objective running - and losing - in 2012 was to get a massive tax cut for the rich. Never mind the reality that Mitt is opposed to most things - unions, abortion rights, immigration reform - that the Democratic voting base supports. It's like these so-called "liberal elites" - the pundits, the "actively engaged" celebrities, who are pulling in six-figure incomes where the rest of us are struggling around $35k a year to survive - don't give a damn about the millions of primary voters who happily re-nominated their incumbent President for a second go.

So here I was for most of the morning, putting this blog article together to tear Sorkin a new one when by 1:00 PM... everything changed.

pic.twitter.com/RMIRvlSOYw

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024

I had to go off to one side and rant for a couple hours after that bombshell. I've calmed a little, but I'm still at the LIVID stage.

Livid and angry towards the goddamned Beltway media - especially that godforsaken rag the New York Times - that were beating the drums to get Biden to drop out. Angry at the Right-of-Center Democrats like Joe Manchin kneecapping any party unity that was needed for the upcoming convention this August. Well, congratulations you sons of bitches, you got your scalp.

If there is any good news from this announcement, it's that Biden openly supports his Vice President Kamala Harris to take over the campaign for him. Running now on their administration's legacy of job growth, infrastructure investment, debt forgiveness for tens of thousands of Americans, and financial reforms. Harris in particular has been touring the nation campaigning against the Dobbs ruling and the Republicans who are working to deny women their basic rights (not just abortion but their right to divorce, their right to work, their right to get education, their right to live).

But those buzzards are still circling. The likes of David Axelrod are complaining that Harris didn't get "vetted" by the primaries - ignoring that she was part of Biden's ticket at the time, and that she's got years of experience in the Executive branch already - and are demanding "an open convention" where the goddamned special interest factions - backed by billionaires that had been funding this anti-Biden effort - will try their best to return to the "smoke-filled backrooms" of power brokering to force an unpalatable pro-business / anti-tax candidate on the Democratic base.

At a moment when the Democratic Party needs to unite behind a standard bearer - be it Biden or be it Harris - we still have these corrupted factions still looking to sabotage it all and let the likes of trump and his Republican hacks steal their way back into the White House.

Goddamn them.

This is an open call to every Democratic and Independent voter I know. Ignore the haters. Focus on what matters. The Democratic Party is the one thing standing for our American democrat-republic institutions and way of life. We got 81 million people to vote for Biden and Harris in 2020 and we can do that again for Harris and whomever she picks to stand as her Vice President. 

We need to stand for women's rights, we need to stand for the good jobs at good wages Biden and the Democrats have brought to us, we need to stand for a future where the uber-rich oligarchs don't decide our fates, we do.

For the LOVE OF GOD AND COUNTRY, do NOT vote for that convicted felon and sex offender donald trump. Do NOT vote for the Republican Party that has surrendered to his greed and his Id.

Elections always matter. Get the vote out for Harris and the Democratic Party across every seat across every county across every state. 

Do not let Joe Biden down, people. He's counting on US to secure his administration's legacy.

Update: What, NOW Sorkin regrets his bullshit?!?! /rage

The Good News

(Update: Thanks again to Infidel753 for including this article in Crooks&Liars' Mike's Blog Round Up. I should mention this article is the twin article to a Bad News article that you might want to read to get a sense of balance on what's happening right now, thank you. Here's hoping things improve after January 20!)

After what needed saying earlier, here are the Good News: 

Despite all of trump's bluster, bullying, and open intent to disrupt the Electoral College count... and despite the Congressional Republicans' attempt to object to the results... The 2020 elections are finally done and Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States on January 20, 2021.

No matter what donald trump will attempt next to avoid what's coming for him - another coup attempt, another riot in Washington DC or elsewhere so he could declare martial law and suspend the whole government, declare war on Iran and impose emergency powers through that (even if that could work) - on January 20 he is officially out of office and can get dragged out of the White House by his diapers if need be. Anything trump could try to do to retain power - or embezzle, or straight-up steal from the federal coffers - will end the second Biden puts hand to Bible and swears the Oath of Office.

Granted, this means that between here and now trump can and will do anything like that to make sure he squeezes out the last penny he can get, but the odds already are that most of the Executive agencies are putting holds on any actions until the incoming Biden administration can sort things out.

In other news, the confirmation means Kamala Harris is the next Vice President. She will be the first woman elected on the Presidential ticket, albeit as the Veep. Harris will be the first woman President of the Senate, which has great significance which I'll get into later. She is the first bi-racial Veep, making her both the first Black American Veep (and second Black American winning the ticket since Obama) and the first Indian (Asian, not Native) American at that high an office.

The incoming Biden administration means we will be getting in 10 days a President who will take the COVID-19 Pandemic serious, and with luck control our nation's response in a more effective, swift manner than the incompetent trump.

In other political news, the seditious riot in Washington overwhelmed the news that Democrats in Georgia won both Senate race runoffs. Not only are two potentially corrupt Republican Senators out of office, but this means the Democrats hold a 50-50 split with Republicans for Senate control... which Kamala Harris makes a 51-vote "majority" as Senate President (the official title/duties of the VP).

This means that a more liberal agenda can get considered and even passed through Congress that otherwise would have been shut down by obstructionist Mitch McConnell had he retained a one-seat majority. It does depend on how the most conservative Dem left in the Senate - Manchin from West Virginia - will set the rules for the rest of his party to accept, but a lot of reforms to the existing health care system, voting rights, wages and employment help, student debt relief, energy and environmental policies, police reforms and social justice, and financial systems can get passed through the House and squeaked through that Senate.

It does depend on what happens to the filibuster and cloture rules - something that Manchin views as tools he still needs to hold influence above his fellow Senators - but the urgency in getting those bills passed during this pandemic crisis would make it likely a lot of it will get done.

Before I get any further, what happened in Georgia was historic and epic in their own ways. Raphael Warnock will be the first Black man elected to the Senate from that Deep South state (the first Black Democrat as well, although not the first Black Senator from the former Confederacy because Mississippi sent two during Reconstruction, and South Carolina has elected Republican Tim Scott in 2014 in a special election). Fellow Democrat Jon Ossoff is the first Jewish Senator elected from the Deep South since 1879.

Their victories matter a lot because they represent a significant shift in the voting demographics in Georgia. Ever since the party shifts of the Republicans going full Conservative since the 1990s, when they became dominant in the state and federal elections, this is the first crack in the Republican political control of the Southeastern U.S. region (AKA the Southern Strategy). Granted, Florida has fluctuated as a battleground state to where Dems have a chance to win, and the Republicans have lost Virginia since 2006. But Florida hasn't been considered a Deep South state since the population boom of the 1980s brought too many Northern liberals and Midwest moderates into the state. Virginia is now so much a part of the DC metro area - heavily liberal suburbs dependent on Federal largesse expanding into the northern counties - that the Conservative power base in that state can't compete. Getting a seriously Deep South state (from Louisiana through Mississippi and Alabama and Georgia and South Carolina) to flip Blue in major elections after 25-30 years of Red Conservative dominance is a sign the Far Right control of a heavily-populated region is about to collapse. That it's Georgia - the next-largest Electoral state behind Texas (which is divergent enough to be its own political ecosystem) and Florida - means the Republicans can plan on losing future Presidential bids for the 2020s decade and beyond.

The Georgia results is also major vindication for Stacey Abrams. Denied a win of the Governor's seat in 2018 due to ethically-questionable behavior from the Republican winner Kemp, Abrams took her national profile from that campaign and turned it into a voter-registration drive to break the GOP's voter suppression efforts and return more favorable results for her fellow Democrats. In the process, she demonstrated to the national Democratic leadership - which at times refuses to organize and recruit in states they felt were lost to them already - that YES it does matter to fight for every vote in every state, and has likely established to other state party leaders how to organize their own efforts to win in other hard Red states.

There are thousands of others in Georgia who worked hard to get the voters registered and motivated, and to her credit Abrams congratulates them as much as everyone else is congratulating her. Her celebrity stock among Democrats is sky high right now, she's proven herself a major player, and with luck she's converting her credibility among the leadership to expand the voter effort and seat challenges everywhere she can. If anyone can work to get more states to turn Blue, it's her.

Speaking of the DC Metro, one of the Democratic party agendas can well get passed within the first month of Biden's tenure: Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico. While these aren't popular issues with the nation at large - and heavily despised and dreaded by Republicans - these are key issues with Democrats looking at the big picture of Senate control. Right now, too many small population states - mostly in the Midwest - are heavily conservative and unlikely to consider Democratic choices for election. These small Red states have few residents, but will have outsized representation in a Senate that constitutionally grants every state Two Senators no matter what. This means roughly 30 percent of the nation's population gets 60-70 percent control of the Senate (another element of Minority Party Rule at the federal level). the demographic and geographic advantage of such skewed representation can hinder the American majority's needs to get things done (at all, given the GOP's obstructionist ways).

The recent trumpian assault on the nation's Capitol is another reason to expect Democrats to push for DC statehood right away: That lack of state-level control prevented the local authorities from aiding in either crowd control during the rally as well as stopping them from protecting the Capitol when the Capitol police got overwhelmed. DC's National Guard doesn't answer to the city, they answered to the DoD (which meant trump and his people benefited from them standing down: Congress had to get National Guard aid from Virginia and Maryland, and even then trump's Pentagon delayed Maryland's response). You can expect the Dems to proceed on granting DC statehood - that the local citizenry need to establish their own law enforcement and protect their own rights - on those grounds alone.

But what will happen with DC - and Puerto Rico - statehood is the expansion of the American charter to more diverse populations. DC is well-known as a Black-majority metropolis (although in truth the ethnicity is more even between Blacks and White in the last ten years of gentrification). Puerto Rico would become the first true Latino-majority state (98 percent!) in the U.S. (New Mexico would be closest at 42 percent). Entering both into the ranks of statehood would be major historical achievements for any Presidential administration (and we haven't done so since 1959).

Ironically, these moves for statehood might not resolve the Senate control in the Democrats' favor: Latinos in 2020 voted in surprisingly high numbers for Republicans, even in spite of the Republicans' harsh anti-immigration stances towards their very ethnic group. That's because the Latinos do not vote on any one singular issue, and are socially conservative on enough matters that Republicans still appeal to them. This would be interesting to witness down the line, but still this coming event should be considered good news for the betterment of the United States' soul.

We're also looking at the good news of Democrats pushing for voting rights laws to fill the void created by bad Supreme Court rulings and by decades' worth of Republican suppression. One thing I'm personally hoping for is a dedicated effort to kill off the Gerrymanders - used by battleground Red states to skew results and corruptly maintain Minority Party rule - and make more states competitive in elections. The Democrats need to, otherwise they run the risk of losing control of the House again like what happened in 2010.

Other good news to consider is that the United States can get back on good terms with our allied nations in Europe and Asia after four years of chaotic and harsh trumpian meddling. We can see the United States resume normal relations with Mexico - and see about undoing the ecological damage that trump's wall obsession had caused. We'll be rejoining the Paris Climate Agreements. We should see more efforts to spread high-speed Internet into rural areas (this would be a big deal where I live). 

We should see a lot of work done to investigate the horrors committed on immigrant and refugee families under trump's draconian rule. We can pray that many of the families pulled apart - and as many children wounded by trump's policies can be recovered - can be mended as best as possible under a more humane immigration system. Depending on if trump and his lackey Stephen Miller haven't blown it all up before Biden takes office.

A lot of this is still speculative. We have to see how things turn out on January 20 and from then on.

But we're facing a better future now than the chaotic uncertainty and violence of the trump regime.

Hope still matters.