Four For the Fourth 2025: As Usual, What the Hell Republicans?

(This is the first of four articles I write on this blog in honor of the 4th of July, although this 2025 trumpian dystopia is going to make it hard to be a pleasant Fourth)

I once noticed how presidential candidate Mitt Romney had "massive tax cuts for the rich" as his "ever-fixed mark," the one campaign pledge he never flipped against. I should have noted how that massive tax cut was a core belief of the modern (Reagan Era) Republican Party, because even after 2012 the goddamn GOP kept pursuing their massive tax cut plans in order to placate their overlords at the Club For Greed and other SuperPACs.

When the Republicans held control of the federal government back in 2017, one of the few agenda items they were able to pull off was that massive tax cut for the rich, alongside shifting the tax burden more onto lower income brackets to "balance" the shifts in revenue. Even then, it didn't work: Deficits went up and the national debt went up. But the Republican congresscritters didn't care because - under the sway of the minority power of the uber-rich billionaires and mega corps - they honestly don't represent their congressional and state interests anymore.

Which is why this week - again in control of the federal government this 2025 - Congress went and passed an even bigger tax cut for the rich at the expense of the rest of America (via Elena Moore, Claudia Grisales, and Deirdre Walsh at NPR):

President Trump's massive spending and tax cut bill is on the way to his desk for a signature. The bill passed Thursday after Republican leaders in the House of Representatives convinced holdouts in their own party to get in line behind the controversial legislation.

House Republicans passed the bill by a vote of 218 to 214, nearly entirely along party lines. All 212 Democrats voted in unison against the bill, and they were joined by two Republicans, Reps. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania. Leaders were forced to work all night to win the votes necessary to pass the bill and meet Trump's demand to sign the bill by July 4.

All so donald trump can hold a photo op signing event on the 4th of July, hijacking the symbolism of independence for "independence from taxes" even though that's not going to happen for most Americans. Our taxes - yes my bracket is affected - are going to go up (via David Morgan at Reuters):

Several independent analyses conclude that the bill now before the Senate would effectively transfer money from poor Americans to the rich.

The Penn Wharton Budget Model, for example, found it would reduce after-tax income by $1,500 for families earning less than $22,000 per year, and boost income by $104,000 for those earning more than $5.2 million. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office reached a similar conclusion...

House Republicans say the bill would provide the typical family with a $1,300 tax cut and that business tax breaks would lead to higher wages for workers.

Which is a lie: All the previous massive tax cuts for businesses NEVER turned into higher wages for employees. Tax cuts for the wealthy never balanced budgets and never improved the middle or lower classes. Those families with $5.2 million annual income don't NEED $104k extra pocket change, but that family (or individual) on $22,000 a year WILL NEED that $1,500 for bills, bills, and staying out of massive debt.

And those massive tax cuts are not what a sizable plurality of this nation are asking for, if this Pew Research 2025 report from Andy Cerda and Andrew Daniller is accurate: 

Far more Americans oppose the legislation than favor it. Nearly half (49%) oppose it, while 29% favor it. Another 21% are not sure.

A narrow majority says the legislation would have a negative impact on the country. While 54% say it would have a mostly negative effect on the country in the coming years, 30% say it would have a mostly positive effect. Another 12% think it would not have much of an impact.

About half (51%) expect the bill to increase the budget deficit. Just 18% of Americans say the bill would cut the deficit, and 27% say it would not have much of an effect...

You would think congressional Republicans would be intelligent enough - or at least aware of the polling - to understand their budget bill is going to hurt their support back home. And you'd be right: A number of GOP congresscritters were begging everyone else to stop them (via Bill Scher at Washington Monthly):

Soon after Senator Lisa Murkowski coughed up the 50th vote for the Senate version of the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill, she told reporters what was wrong with it. 

“I struggled mightily with the impact on the most vulnerable in this country, when you look to Medicaid and SNAP,” she said, referring to the bill’s deep cuts to health care and food assistance. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill’s onerous provisions would directly strip health coverage from 11.8 million people by 2034, and the omission of any extension for Joe Biden-era health-care tax credits would deny coverage for another 5.1 million, for a total of 16.9 million. And according to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities,  “more than 5 million people—about 1 in 8 SNAP participants…would be at risk of losing at least some of their food assistance”  because of the Republican “red-tape-laden, ineffective work requirement. ” For its part, the Congressional Budget Office predicts 2 million people will lose SNAP benefits altogether because of the work requirement...

And yet, Murkowski, you fucking voted for it. You had the power and ability to say NO for the benefit of your constituents of Alaska - and the nation - and yet...

Opinions differ regarding the potential consequences of historically high post-World War II federal debt levels, and whatever those consequences are, they won’t be felt by households as immediately and acutely as the loss of Medicaid and SNAP coverage will be felt. Many Republicans agree with Senator Johnson that our debt level should be declining. Yet, they continue to support legislation that piles on more debt by cutting taxes far more deeply than cutting spending, and in the process, rewarding high-income households and punishing low-income households. Johnson is one of them. He told NPR that Trump “satisfied my requirement, which was a commitment to a reasonable, pre-pandemic level of spending and a process to achieve and maintain it.” A hollower commitment would be impossible to make...

The modern Republican Party is caught in a fantasy of their own making: Pushed by deep-pocket campaign funders who want to keep their greed expanding at the expense of everyone else (damn you, Citizens United ruling), pressured by anti-government ideologues who want to starve the federal government and drown it in Grover's bathtub, and convinced that their incumbent - and gerrymandered - status makes them protected from voter outrage; the Far Right keep buying into the lie of trickle-down in order to justify their cruelty and disdain towards the lower classes.

The Republicans - with trump hosting his horrific photo op today - are going to be celebrating a bill they know is destructive and harmful to the national well-being - especially the Medicaid cuts that will force far too many rural hospitals and nursing homes even in deep Republican Red states to close - but they hope won't affect their re-election hopes for 2026 and 2028.

If trump lets us have fair elections any more, that is.

Goddamn these Far Right bastards.

Basic Things To Know About Yet Another Republican Default Threat

There's a Democrat in the White House and there's Republicans in charge of one-half of Congress, so those of you who survived 2011 and 2013 budget crises know what THAT means: Yet another attempt by the goddamn Republican wingnuts hoping to drown the nation in Grover Norquist's bathtub, forcing spending cuts on social aid that they themselves are too afraid to do on their own, and maybe even nuking the global economy just to blame the Democrats for their own sabotage.

So as we're facing another budget battle that could lead to a U.S. default and global economic meltdown, let Stacey Vanek Smith at NPR spell out what's at stake:

One of the outcomes that would happen if the U.S. defaulted would be a major hit to the United States' reputation internationally.

"It would be a disaster and the reputation of the government for meeting its debt obligations would be in tatters," says Darrell Duffie, professor of finance at Stanford's Graduate School of Business...

So much money that the country can right now borrow up to $31.4 trillion, a debt ceiling that will need to be raised or suspended to avoid a default.

And if the U.S. defaults, the interest rate on the country's debt would go up because the U.S. would be seen as riskier: too politically dysfunctional to get its bills paid on time...

An actual default would also deliver a massive shock to financial markets, raising the prospect of a new global financial crisis.

Investment bank UBS estimates the S&P 500 could fall by at least 20%. Bond markets would tumble, and that would send borrowing costs higher across the economy including for already-high mortgage rates.

And banks would be hit as well given that lenders are among the major investors of government debt. As a result, depositors and investors could start to worry about whether banks are on solid ground at a time when the banking sector has recently suffered through the failures of three smaller and regional lenders...

(Economics professor from University of Michigan Justin) Wolfers says if the U.S. defaults and there's no more money to spend, the government suddenly wouldn't have cash to run basic operations, things like schools and roads.

Government workers could get their pay delayed if the government runs out of cash, while businesses that have contracts with the governments might also stop getting paid for a while.

And the list of people who may not get vital government benefits is long, including most prominently veterans who rely on these payments as a lifeline as well as retirees who rely on Social Security payments.

All those missed payments would have a direct impact on the economy...

The shock to financial markets and the impact across the board would be blows of such magnitude that many experts believe would lead to a U.S. recession: unemployment could spike, lending could freeze up and the economy could shrink...

All of these things are wonderful in the eyes of the Far Right, because they can use all of that to blame Biden and the Democrats even though THEY'RE the ones insisting the federal government defaults on our national debt. They've done this shit before, and while they took some of the blame the Republicans didn't lose control of Congress at the ballot boxes in 2012 and 2014 while the Democrats were hit with "both sides at fault" blame by a short-term-memory mainstream media.

The big reason for Republicans holding the debt ceiling vote hostage is that it brought Joe Biden - who lived through these fights ten years ago and promised not to make the same mistakes - to the negotiating table over the Republicans' budget-slashing agenda.

Try to remember, kids: Between 2017 and 2018 the Republicans had FULL control of the budget process, with both wings of Congress AND donald trump in the White House eager to sign off on anything they sent him. The Republicans succeeded in passing a massive tax cut bonanza for the rich, but refused to commit any major spending cuts to balance their budgets. Even they knew full well any slashing of the social safety net like Social Security, Medicare, Food Stamps, and any other public aid would have been political suicide for their party.

Which is why, whenever the Democrats are in partial or complete control of Congress and the White House, the Republicans will do everything they can to force the Democrats to do their dirty work for them and get the Dems held accountable if any social aid does get cut.

But this time around this game of fiscal brinkmanship is a little different, and more terrifying.

There's still a faction of the House Republicans - the Freedom Caucus - that wants more than just the massive spending cuts that the rest of the Republicans would be happy with: The Freedom Caucus doesn't want the debt ceiling to go up under any circumstance. These wingnuts want the federal government to default no matter what.

It's more than just crashing the national and global economy just to make Biden look bad for 2024: These wingnuts are convinced it will bankrupt and flush out an entire federal bureaucracy they fear is too far liberal/Woke for them to ever control. The Freedom Caucus honestly wants to burn the whole government down so that they can take over and rebuild their fantasy utopia on the ashes.

In the previous budget showdowns, these Freedom Caucus members were too few to hold up any compromise deals that were eventually hammered out in 2011 and 2013. THIS TIME, the caucus has the advantage of a tiny Republican majority in the House. Speaker McCarthy has basically a slim five-vote advantage over the Democrats, and all it can take is five angry wingnuts from his own party to nuke every deal and bring on that default.

Making it worse is that McCarthy, in order to gain that speakership, granted his party a "No Confidence" veto power where a single congresscritter could call for his removal. Any attempt to get centrist Democrats to cross the aisle and help him with a budget deal would trigger that revolt.

There's a less-likely scenario where the other saner Republican factions - the ones who will deal for spending cuts but won't cross the line of driving the entire planet over the cliffs - could threaten their own "No Confidence" on McCarthy to force him to ignore the Freedom Caucus, but that would lead to open schism and the Republicans still have enough intra-party discipline not to fall apart like that. Yet.

We are looking at three scenarios at this point:

1) President Biden refuses to play the Freedom Caucus' game of default, and calls on his authority under the 14th Amendment to maintain the nation's full faith and credit: Or even more fun, mint the trillion-dollar coin. That could lead to the House Republicans pushing for impeachment - which will fail - and more likely force a legal court battle that would go to an ultra-conservative Supreme Court that may side with the wingnuts to re-interpret the Constitution to allow economic havoc.

2) Nothing gets resolved, and the debt ceiling triggers a default. The Freedom Caucus gets exactly what they want. The global economy goes into a tailspin and Gods help us if the Republicans use this to regain full control in 2024. More likely is that even the deep-pocket billionaires supporting the GOP are hit hard by the recession to where they hold back on funding, and enough voters get angry enough at the real culprits to instead re-elect Biden and throw enough Republicans out of the House to reflip it back to Democrats.

3) The Freedom Caucus refuses to budge on their stance even with major concessions from Biden on spending cuts, driving enough Republicans in unsafe congressional districts to quit the party and flip the House now to where the Freedom Caucus lose their power. Granted, this is pure wish-fulfillment on my part, but given the hard-line position of that caucus there doesn't seem to be any other sane option left to the nation.

By most reports, we're looking at the debt ceiling to kick in during the first weeks of June.

By all evidence, the Freedom Caucus - as an act of sedition - is more than happy to let our nation fail.

By all rights, saner heads should prevail and kick those self-serving destructionists out of power.

The Only Detail You Need To Know About ANY Republican Tax Plan

For all the chatter about trump's tax plan proposal, for any chatter about Ryan's tax plans, just remember one thing:

Republican tax plans are NOT reforms: Republican tax plans are attempts to enrich the greedy, cause massive deficits, and kill government effectiveness all in one single blow.

Republican tax cuts do only one thing well: destroy. The rest are merely details.

They won't admit it, but they're close to realizing how dangerous it is for themselves. It's why they've begun punting the fiscal spending deadlines down the road for a week to avoid shutdowns they know they'll get blamed for.

Welcome back to the Era of Oh God We're Going Over a Cliff.

Personal Reaction to Obama's Speech

1) Obama did seem to go out of his way to shred Paul Ryan's tax-cut, social-service-cut budget proposal for 2012.  Which in my mind was the right thing to do.  Ryan's budget is not brave: it panders HARD to the Far Right's need to destroy Medicare and Medicaid, and it attempts to add even MORE tax breaks to corporations already swimming in massive profit margins (just how much a burden are the taxes on them anymore?).

2) Obama still played the game being played in the Beltway (and owned by the Far Right): the idea that cutting the deficit is paramount, and not the need to focus on job creation (which could add to the deficits in the short term, but should reduce said deficits in the long term).  So as a result, the possibility of more austerity measures (which ARE NOT WORKING in the European countries already playing this game) are there.

What the hell happened to discredit Keynesian economic policies at this time?  There's no way the Austrian or Chicago schools of thought should remain this dominant, and you'd think after the massive catastrophes of the 2000s that the libertarians would be even more discredited than Keynesians.

3) I was not at all surprised that the Republicans and their media enablers and brown-nosers dismissed Obama's speech, or accused him of making "personal attacks" (which in Ryan's case could be truth).  Outside of admitting he was born on Krypton and then resigning the Presidency to return to complete his Jedi training on Dagobah with Master Yoda, there is nothing Obama can do to convince the teabagger Far Right wingnuts (I know, redundancies) of anything.

4) The speech reads well, and Obama did a decent job presenting it.  Most important, Obama seems to be drawing a line in the sand here: that he will not accept any further extensions of the Bush tax cuts for the extremely wealthy (the top two percent, the ones earning millions of dollars), for example.  For the most part, this is Obama's opening salvo for his re-election campaign.  But it's also a promise he made on camera and one he's going to have to stick to for the far left base - and the Democratic Party in general - to hang their hat on.  It's kind of his Bush the Elder "Read My Lips" moment: if he fails to live up to the promise, if the Republican House gets him to back down again on what Obama promised this week, then Obama's support (which is decent but not overwhelming) fades.

And there's already two major battles just this year alone: the debt ceiling vote due in May/June and the Paul Ryan budget showdown.  The budget issue is the easier of the two: The Democratic-led Senate is in decent position to insist on stopping the more harsh elements of the Ryan plan from passing the whole Congress.  But the debt ceiling vote is different altogether: it can fail in the House if enough Republicans (and even some psycho Democrats) vote against raising the ceiling, and the whole system collapses.  There's more at stake with the debt ceiling, more possibility that the House GOP will hold it hostage to negotiate for everything they want (including pony rides at the circus!).  And even though Obama is calling on Democrats to insist on a "Clean" bill for the debt ceiling (meaning no deals with Republicans who will try to add their pet projects to it), this is too scary a situation to be playing chicken with the global economy.

The trick is making damn sure the Republicans swerve first.  It's doable, especially since the latest vote on the overdue 2011 budget still couldn't pass with enough Republican votes (meaning Boehner is facing a sizable faction revolt... the same faction that's eager to vote against that debt ceiling...)

Obama's given his speech.  He's made a good number of promises.  But now he's got to live up to them...

Here Comes The State of the Union

"...He shall, from time to time..."

The biggest question about Obama's upcoming SOTU speech among the Talking Heads on television will be if he speaks out against Keith Olbermann's ouster from MSNBC.  Kidding.  But I wouldn't be surprised if those self-absorbed nabobs went there.

No, the biggest question is if Obama will surrender his forces to the GOP House / Teabagger leadership under threat of government shutdowns and whatnot.

The buzz is that Obama will address the deficit as the primary issue, but how he will address it is the key.  Will Obama push for drastic cuts on everything the Republicans hate - Social Security, social safety net spending, education, state funding, etc. - or will he aim for more moderate cuts with a stronger emphasis on spending caps?

For myself, I hope that Obama comes out swinging on the issue that's REALLY the major issue for most Americans: the ongoing unemployment crisis.  For every Congressperson obsessed with the deficit (THAT THEY CAUSED) there's about ten Americans obsessed with how bad the job market is and how bad the wage earnings are.  Obama's probably unable to push for any government project (the Republicans still hate Obama's stimulus package with a vengeance, and most Americans still aren't aware how effective that stimulus was in keeping us out of a full-blown DEPRESSION), but he's got to do something to address the fact that there's at least 15-20 million Americans who have been unemployed longer than 27 weeks... and that those long-term unemployed are frozen out of the sluggish recovery we've recently been watching on the financial news.

Obama better have something good on the table for the jobs issue.  If he doesn't, we're screwed.  It's jobs, people, it's JOBS that help keep this economy going...