It's been some time since I posted anything about Ukraine's war of survival against Putin's Russia.
By most accounts, it's still going terrible for Putin and his meat grinder. I once mentioned that Russia's only true advantage over Ukraine was sheer numbers: that Russia had 134 million to throw at Ukraine's 34 million, an obscene "We Have Reserves" tactic that could still well work. Problem even with that: there's really only so many bodies you can throw into a war zone before you use up the ones that are able to fight; and are left with untrainable, unhappy, unwilling soldiers. There's also a limit to how many men - young, old, mere babies - you can conscript before crippling your nation's workforce in vital fields. Meanwhile, Ukraine is playing defense and can draw on everyone willing to protect themselves and loved ones from invading Russian hordes.
If you want more data: A link to the most recent analysis from the Institute for the Study of War.
With trump's war on Iran creating a global crisis with oil supply, Ukraine's been taking advantage by striking Russia's refineries to prevent them from capitalizing on the increasing demand for oil. Granted, it's not great for the rest of the world, but it's putting more pressure on Putin who can't generate any wealth or maintain his own war machines without it.
In this, Ukraine's skill fighting with drones has made them one of the most invaluable military forces on the planet. As Sinead Baker notes over at Business Insider:
Now, partners want access to Ukrainian weaponry, to learn from its production techniques, and to integrate Ukrainian tactics into their own militaries.
Ukraine's armed forces are now "undoubtedly the most combat-hardened and the best at the moment in Europe," Michael Clarke, a former UK security advisor and now a defense analyst, told BI. And allies are paying attention.
Partner countries have long trained Ukrainian troops to fight Russia, but increasingly the roles are being reversed, with Ukrainians sharing their expertise with NATO militaries and joining their training programs, particularly on drone warfare...
Ukrainian troops have at times pushed back on Western training, explaining why some tactics are unlikely to work against Russia while also feeding front-line experiences back to their instructors. That know-how is reshaping how partner militaries train their own forces, trainers in a UK-led program told Business Insider.
On the opening of a new training camp for Ukrainian soldiers in Poland last year, Poland's defense minister, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, said, "This is not a one-way process," sharing that "we will be drawing on Ukrainian experiences."
If Putin thought conquering Ukraine would make the rest of Europe tremble, he's made things worse for himself and Russia by giving them opportunities to learn from Ukraine how to fight back. Putin's never really going to win this one.
Ukraine's drone capabilities were apparently scary enough that Putin put out offers of a temporary ceasefire on his nation's upcoming Victory Day to avoid any embarrassing drone strikes on his glorious parades. Peter Dickinson at The Atlantic Council explains how this exposes Putin's weaknesses:
For Putin, the annual Victory Day parade is no mere formality; it is the main event on the Kremlin calendar. This prominence reflects Putin’s efforts to revive Russian patriotism following the fall of the USSR and place the Soviet World War II experience at the heart of the country’s modern national identity.
During the Soviet era, Victory Day had not been the leading public holiday, with only four parades held between 1945 and 1991. Since the start of Putin’s reign, however, Victory Day has been elevated in status to the level of pseudo-religion, complete with its own saints, symbols, dogmas, and heretics. Indeed, it is no coincidence that enemies of the Kremlin are routinely branded as “Nazis...”
Since 2022, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has cast a long shadow over this spectacle. With Russia needing all available armor to replace heavy combat losses in Ukraine, finding enough vehicles for the parade has become increasingly challenging. In 2023, the Kremlin could only muster a single tank, sparking widespread mockery. “There are farmers in Ukraine with more Russian tanks than that,” quipped one internet wag.
This year’s parade is shaping up to be even more awkward. The Kremlin has already announced that due to the threat of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, the event will proceed in a scaled back format without any tanks or military equipment whatsoever. Instead, the pageantry will be limited to columns of troops marching across Moscow’s central square. This dramatic downgrade represents a tacit admission by Putin that he can no longer ensure security in his own capital...
Five years ago, the entire notion of Putin seeking American assistance to protect Moscow from Ukrainian attack would have seemed absurd. This humiliating turn of events will not have passed unnoticed inside Russia, where rumblings of dissent are already becoming more audible amid a grinding war, deteriorating economic outlook, and escalating government restrictions on internet access. Putin’s obvious inability to protect his own showpiece parade will now underscore perceptions that the regime is rapidly losing control of the narrative and has become trapped in a war it cannot win but dare not end.
Starting an unpopular, unwinnable war just isn't the best way for dictators to show off, ya know?
As always, I suggest keeping up with Adam L Silverman at Balloon-Juice for insight and updates on Ukraine.
Slava Ukraini!
