The Stressful October

Apologies for the lack of blogging.

Midterms are stressing me out.

Early voting in Florida is coming up.

Get the vote out.

Kick the Republican crooks out of office, please and thank you.

Everything At Stake: 2026 Midterms

If it feels like this election cycle is the most important of our lifetimes AGAIN for the tenth or twelfth time, it's because since 2004 we've been dealing with high stakes for our nation - and for the state of Florida where I live - ever since the Bush the Lesser administration created so many mistakes - the flaws and failures of the War On Terror above all - and mishandled so many disasters - the various corporate scandals from Enron to the mortgage crisis, as well as Hurricane Katrina - that we've been trying to compensate ever since.

It doesn't help that the cyclical nature of the elections themselves - swinging towards liberals and Democrats one term, swinging towards conservative Republicans after a term or two - doesn't allow for any stability in policies, with the partisan nature of the Republicans' destructive agendas causing more chaos and harm than any good. This particular congressional term of 2025-2026 - the mass deportations and civil rights abuses, the refusal to rein in trump's corruption and warmongering - has been partisanship destruction on steroids through inaction and distraction, with far too many aspects of federal - and state - effectiveness falling apart.

If there's anything positive about the 2026 midterm cycle, it's that many signs are pointing to a Democratic "Blue Wave" similar to what happened in 2018... except this time voter anger towards trump and Republicans are higher and more visceral. There are signs that the Democrats can claim enough seats in the Senate this cycle - with Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas in play - to clinch control of both parts of Congress.

Granted, the polls are still within margin of error and could still provide narrow wins for Republicans to keep the Senate, but most of the polling - not just nationwide but at the district levels - are pointing to Dems claiming the House of Representatives... and that's AFTER all the massive gerrymandering the Republicans inflicted this year after the Supreme Court ruled they could eliminate minority-majority (also Democratic) districts.

Hoping is one thing that likely voters will show: Action is what matters, and actual voter turnout is necessary among the Democratic base - and all others among the No Party Affiliates and disgruntled Republicans - to show up by November 3rd to get their ballots in and make them count.

For Florida, that means showing up to vote in every congressional district for any Democratic candidate on that ballot. That means showing up to vote for the Democratic Senate candidate statewide. That means showing up to vote out the overlong Republican dominance at the state legislative levels as well as putting Democrats back into the governor's office along with the other executive offices up for vote.

The state attorney general election is vital this year for Democrats to win because of the current scandals surrounding the DeSantis regime, especially the Hope Florida theft of $10 million earmarked for sick kids. If the Republicans win the state AG office, that Republican - James Uthmeier, who has connections to that scandal! - will squash any further investigation or criminal charges aimed at those who stole money from sick kids, and perpetuate all future GOP scandals as the state Republicans know they will get away with all of it. Holding these crooks accountable is a key reason to show up and vote this midterms for Democrats. This is why voting for Jose Javier Rodriguez could arguably be the most important choice on your state ballot.

For the governor's office itself, the Democratic candidate is David Jolly a one-time Republican who quit that party of his own volition during the first trump regime, and has taken the role of the centrist candidate trying to appeal to both Dems and NPA/angry Republican voters. There is a risk though, as previous election attempts of centrist candidates (sigh, Crist) did not boost general election Dem turnout. This year is different due to the overall anger by the electorate, one hopes. It matters to elect Jolly because the Republican on the ballot Byron Donalds is an openly MAGA wingnut who will impose trumpian chaos at the state level.

For the U.S. Senate race, the Democratic primary voters pulled off an upset going with Angie Nixon, an openly avowed progressive who impressed the base with effective ground campaigning and an aggressive anti-trump message. The polling has Nixon neck-and-neck to incumbent Ashley Moody, who has close ties to the DeSantis crime family and involvement in the Hope Florida scandal... and thus utterly deserves to get kicked out by Florida voters angry by all the GOP corruption. Voting FOR Nixon - relax, this is the GOOD Nixon - would also contribute to the Democrats' chances of gaining control of the Senate.

There's also Democrat Annette Taddeo running for the Chief Financial Officer position, and Joey Mendoza Atkins for Commissioner of Agriculture. Voting for the Democratic candidates for Congress, state House, and state Senate depending on your district matters a lot as well, please and thank you.

Florida also has a judicial retention vote, and up for consideration this year is Carlos Muniz, appointed to the seat in 2019 by DeSantis, which should be a huge mark against Muniz for starters. The Orlando Sentinel describes Muniz as one of the most partisan justices on the state bench, who ruled on enforcing a strict abortion ban and supported blatant gerrymandered maps. Voting NO on Muniz will hold him accountable for those decisions. One other reason to vote for Jolly as governor by the by is to end the ongoing stacking of state judgeships by all the Republican governors we've had for 20-plus years: our court system is filled with Far Right partisans who'll rule in favor of their elites instead of serving the needs of the public.

Last thing on the Florida ballots will be three amendments: Amendment One is to increase the amount of money that may be retained in the budget stabilization fund (aka the Rainy Day emergency bank), and limits on how the money gets transferred; Amendment Two is to exempt farm equipment or tools from property taxes if the property is listed for agricultural needs; and Amendment Three is an expanded homestead exemption rate a nuclear bomb wiping out millions from any county and city government's revenues raised from property taxes.

I've already made my position on Amendment Three clear: raising the exemption rates to such extremes would ruin many services provided at the city and county levels, such as road maintenance, clean water supply and sewage handling, public parks, libraries, fire rescue, law enforcement, and more. Public hospitals and health services could lose $323 million over three years. Counties could lose up to $29.7 BILLION over five years (almost 65 percent of their revenues) and cities losing up to $12 BILLION (around 26 percent of their revenues) in that same span. 

For anyone thinking they're going to save between $600 to $1200 on their annual taxes with this amendment, consider the costs of everything else in your life going up either by counties/cities enacting more fees (if the state will even let them!) or the costs of suddenly dealing with dirty water, higher utility bills, 2000 potholes between your house and work, and your kids suddenly having no safe parks or open museums to entertain them. That $1200 you're saving from one column in your balance sheet is going to get eaten up by the other costs. It's not worth the loss of public services, and I am not saying this as an employee of a city public library I'm saying this as a homeowner who is okay with paying my taxes as a civic duty. For the love of GOD, vote NO on Three.

As for Amendment One, there's no evidence at the moment that the budget stabilization fund needs more money - it's at its highest amount (9.3 percent) in years, having recovered from the fiscal horrors of 2008 - and this move feels like a power grab by the Republicans in the state legislature. I'm thinking of voting NO on One. 

Amendment Two does address the costs of managing farms here in the state, removing some of the fiscal burdens allowing our local agribusinesses to afford equipment and other supplies. Florida needs to maintain local agriculture at least to ensure food security at this level, so this would help our communities overall. It may cut into the property taxes for our counties, but not at the extremes that Amendment Three does. I would vote YES on Two.

That all said: VOTING MATTERS, FLORIDA. Especially during a midterms that trump and his lackeys are threatening to take away our votes by hook or crook. If you're worried about your county precinct being at risk from illegal federal raids, plan ahead and do Early Voting which happens October 19th through November 1st. Check your county's Elections website to find out locations - they tend to be in centralized locations that ICE / DHS / FBI aren't keen to hit since white voters will be there - and plan to go early mornings or late afternoons depending on your work schedules.

Vote the Republican crooks out, Florida. Vote FOR David Jolly, Jose Javier Rodriguez, Angie Nixon, and every Democrat on the ballots. Vote NO on Three above all. 

PLEASE VOTE.

trump Himself IS the Derangement Syndrome

Wanted to share this Michael Tomasky article at the New Republic I read a few days ago:

The Venezuela announcement tracks with a very well-worn pattern. Trump raves that the deal in question is the greatest in the annals of history. It will deliver scarcely imaginable benefits. It will cost nothing. And it all happened because of Trump’s genius.

It’s been a lie every time. The tariffs were going to help farmers. Nope: Farmers are furious at Trump, giving Democrats their first potential political opening in rural America in ages. The tariffs were going to allow for elimination of the income tax. Remember that one? The war in Iran was going to take a month. The Reflecting Pool, ruined by Trump’s predecessors, was going to be thing of unparalleled beauty.

It’s tempting to call these lies, and they surely were in the sense that Trump just says everything he does is the greatest without the slightest bit of analysis or conscience entering into the equation. But they’re not just lies. They’re delusions. And delusions, in a way, are even worse than lies.

Why? Because while a liar can change course, a delusional person cannot. Trump is sitting in the mid-to-low 30s in approval. If he were merely a liar, he could try to correct course and do some things differently. He could realize, for example, that the war he started has been a disaster and is massively unpopular and, without exactly admitting it directly, sue for peace and cut his losses. A liar can acknowledge, eventually, that maybe he screwed up a little on the Reflecting Pool.

But a delusionist can do none of those things because the delusionist can’t accept that he’s done anything wrong. And he surrounds himself with people who understand that their only real job, whatever their actual specific responsibilities may be, is to keep the delusions alive and the Emperor happy.

So: A normal president two months out from what’s shaping up as a devastating midterm election would try to do things a little differently. I’m not sure in this case what exactly that would be; releasing some of the petroleum reserve, bringing beef producers to the White House and pressing them to lower prices for a period. Anyway that’s Trump’s problem, not mine. The point is that he won’t do these things because he doesn’t think anything is wrong. In fact, his plan right now is to make himself the centerpiece of the GOP’s midterm message, and to that end he will reportedly redirect part of a $400 million kitty to “television advertisements about his own record.”

That record is delulu. He mocks affordability. He says the bad polls are fake. He blames everything on Joe Biden. He tells people the economy is roaring, everybody says so (yes, everybody at Mar-a-Lago probably does say so). He boasts, as he did at that rally 10 or so days ago, that the last 19 months have been the greatest first 19 months of any administration in history.

His aides must echo every word of this palaver or risk censure or termination. Ditto Republican elected officials, as Salazar no doubt learned swiftly and loudly after her first tweet. And ditto Republican office seekers, like the Senate candidate in Minnesota (net worth: between $17 and $33 million) who says people concerned about gas prices should “take one less trip to Starbucks.”

The GOP lives in a cocoon, woven by the gossamer threads of Trump’s fantasia. Reality does not penetrate it. It’s funny to watch. But it’s tragic because it’s affecting people’s lives. People are struggling and suffering. But to say that in the Emperor’s presence is to prove only that you’re a deep-stater or a stooge or a RINO.

So, no—none of this is fixable. The economy will get worse. More and more innocent people, very much including children, will be rounded up and held in detention centers in the kind of hideous conditions we associate with a right- (or hard-left-) wing dictatorship, not the United States of America. The jaw-dropping corruption will continue and will get worse and more desperate, as indeed it has nearly every month of this administration so far. The attempts to rig and steal the midterms will only get more blatant. And next year, the hideous aspects of the Big Ugly Bill, the ones they intentionally delayed until after the midterms, will kick in, like the massive Medicaid cuts, and poor people and those in nursing homes, among many others, will suffer even more...

All trump knows is the con: Selling junk as though it's gold and profiting from the suckers who buy into it. The thing is, the con he's selling his himself: As a Great Businessman, As a Great Leader, As a Great Dealmaker, etc. That's the junk he's selling, and it's costing the rest of the world dearly.

Tomasky is bringing this all up in the context of that big Midterm Rally (tm) trump is hosting in Dallas this coming week. It's rare for a political party to hold a convention in an off-presidential election cycle - at least in the modern era, maybe back in the 1800s before the telegraph and telephone they had to meet more often to stay organized - to promote themselves, but for trump any rally is where he gets to rave and rant about himself with the delusion that the rest of the world is applauding him.

Granted, the Far Right media outlets - which now includes the broken CBS News - will try to offer wall-to-wall coverage, but the haters are likely to tune out, and the disgruntled Republican voters back home are likely going to be busy at their city halls fighting to stop another data center getting built in their neighborhoods. I don't believe trump's last set of nationally televised appearances were all that good in the ratings (trump of course will insist they were "great"), and I doubt he'll get many viewers for this.

As much as Tomasky argues that the Republican elected officials are stuck pandering to trump's delusions, it's already out there that many of the GOP candidates this midterm are avoiding this Rally (tm) like the plague. trump's approval numbers are so terrible that getting associated with him - especially in districts and states hammered hard by his tariffs and migrant deportations - is toxic. They'll support everything trump is saying when they appear on the Sunday talk shows because they know he's watching, but they dare not stand next to him for any unwanted photo ops.

trump himself doesn't care for the damage he's inflicting on others, even the ones supposedly on his side of the fence. All he cares about is branding himself the Greatest Who Ever Lived while planning to bulldoze down most of Washington DC to get his garish ugly monuments to himself built.

There's your derangement syndrome, Beltway Media. I hope you're happy.

Addendum: As I worked on this, Tomasky did a follow-up article at TNR about the potential Blue Wave coming this midterms in spite of trump and the GOP's efforts to rig the election. We can hope... and we SHOULD turn out in droves to make that Blue Wave flip the House AND Senate this November. Want to break trump's delusions? Defeat him.

Everybody Hold On Tight Election Day 2024 Edition

Update: Goddammit.

This is what we know going into Election Day this November 5th.

There is a gender gap in the voting trends, with more women showing up to vote than men.

There is a Dobbs Effect, where a number of deeply-held Republican states are seeing a massive shift of votes towards Democratic candidates and pro-abortion state referenda after the Dobbs ruling in 2022 allowed those Republican states to enact harsh anti-abortion laws. What we don't know is how massive those shifts will be and if they will flip enough Red states Blue.

There will be a harsh rebuke from Latino voters - especially Puerto Rican voters - towards Republicans in key battleground states Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida. When you have 85 percent of Puerto Ricans telling pollsters they're siding with Harris, that's a huge voting bloc numbering hundreds of thousands in each state giving Democrats advantages in places that were decided by mere thousands of votes.

The governors and Attorneys General in some of the Red states are going to do everything they can to block federal officials from the Justice Department to oversee vote counting, because they dare not let honest tallying take place. So we know the Republicans are going to try and disenfranchise voters they don't like as much as possible.

trump will claim he's winning in every state, and then when a state's counting starts shifting to Harris he will scream "Stop the Steal" and that there's mass voter fraud in that state. Then again, he did this LAST time during the 2020 count, and he threatened to do it in 2016 before that election, so this was going to happen anyway. trump can never admit he's losing.

What people should know going into tomorrow's election: When you get in line before the polls close, STAY IN LINE. It helps to get there as early as possible. Bring your own bottle of water or something because some of the Republican-controlled states banned people from providing drinks and health aid for people stuck in long lines.

If some Proud Boy asshole challenges your right to vote, defend your vote (and see if the precinct security guard can charge that SOB for election interference). If a poll worker challenges your right to vote, demand a provisional ballot. Bring a friend - go with a group of neighbors or family members who can vote at that precinct with you - so you won't be alone and easy to intimidate.

Do be prepared for the craziest election day our nation's ever seen: Crazier than 1968, more chaotic than 1876, and - oh gods, help us - probably more violent than anything (and it's shocking how many violent elections - at least at the local level - we've had).

Stay safe. Use your power to vote. And here's hoping for a strong Blue Wave to wash trump and his criminal ways from our land.

I Need to Blog Something to Open This Month of November So...

I don't want to stress.

I don't want to stress.

I don't want to stress.

I don't want to stress.

(grabs a Gatorade and guzzles it all in one gulp)

via GIPHY

I DON'T WANT TO STRESS.

I AM PERFECTLY FINE.

via GIPHY

ALL THE EARLY VOTING REPORTS AND FINAL WEEK OF POLLING, I DON'T CARE ABOUT ANY OF THAT.

(stops self from writing a prolonged blog essay freaking out over the post-election scenarios)

I AM AN OASIS OF CALM.

I'M FINE. I'M PERFECTLY FINE.

GODDAMMIT WILL WE JUST CONFIRM KAMALA HAS 99 MILLION VOTES ALREADY AND BE DONE WITH THIS?!

(slap)

via GIPHY

Okay. Okay. Whew. Better now.

(grabs the edge of the computer monitor to scream at the nine blog readers here) GET THE DAMN VOTE OUT FOR KAMALA AND EVERY DEMOCRAT ON THE BALLOT! GET IT DONE! 

via GIPHY

As Spock would say, "Party hard, you Vulcan motherf-ckers."

We're gonna need ALL the Romulan Ale by Tuesday night.

What If: the 2024 President Election Is an Honest-to-God Harris Landslide

Update: All of this was wrong. All of this was a lie. All of America is fucked up, don't tell me otherwise.

I'm still thinking about that USA Today report about early voting where Kamala Harris has a 63 percent lead in the ballots over trump's anemic 34 percent (with the difference going to third parties, natch).

Given how most of the modern - at least 21st Century - Presidential elections were not so heavily favored either way - balancing between 52-47 percent or closer - seeing THAT huge of a lead is stunning (and stirring up way too much hope for my own good, I admit it).

Logic dictates that the early voting is not a full representation of the likely voter turnout for this cycle. We're barely at a quarter of expected turnout - although with a week to go the numbers will go up - and more than half of the voters tend to wait until Election Day (some because they're still undecided, many because it's kinda traditional) anyway. We should expect a downward shift on that percentage lead to where the voting share fits the trends of a closer (say 55-45) election result.

We could be looking at the likelihood that a large number of Democratic - or Dem-leaning Independents - are voting earlier than the more traditional Republican voters who wait... except those early voting numbers show a near-level balance of Dem and GOP voters. So that narrative's a bit off.

The implications I'm seeing are 1) this is how the voting trends are going, and 2) there's a shocking number of Republican voters adding to that 63 percent Harris lead that can't be ignored.

So (dammit, my giddiness is getting the better of me), we are within the realm of positing a "What If": What if Harris really is getting close to 63 percent of the national vote this November?

One thing we shouldn't do is speculate on the final turnout numbers. Although there's signs of increased voter registration, there's still no guarantee of increased voter turnout (although the turnout numbers did go up in 2020 due to excessive use of mail-in ballots that made it easier to do so).

So let's go by the 2020 total turnout count, which was 158,429,631 Americans.

If that percentage trend (63) persists for Harris, she's looking at roughly 99,810,667 votes.

(jaw drops)

Considering Biden got roughly 51 percent and a total of 81,283,501 votes, I'd say that's a huge boost to the collective Democratic ego.

By comparison, trump's possible 34 percent will garner around 53,866,704 votes. It will be a decided drop off from the 74,223,975 he got in 2020 and also below his 2016 numbers of 62,984,828. It would be a massive rejection by voters tired of trump's antics the third time around.

Not only would the percentage difference be huge (Harris will win by 29 percent) but the vote total will be embarrassing (Harris will win by 45,943,963 votes). trump and the Republicans will try to scream "stolen votes," but on a scale that large there's no way even Far Right judges will buy that (or risk challenging it). 

(Also: Try imagining trump calling the Georgia Secretary of State and begging him to "find me 45 million votes.")

It would be a legitimate blowout for a Presidential election, something we haven't seen in decades. Looking back, the next closest election with that huge a percentage win gap was in 1984 when Reagan demolished Mondale 58 to 40 percent. Reagan won the Electoral votes of 49(!) states with roughly 54 million over 37 million. There's a reason why Democrats have campaigned with little joy until now, and that smackdown inflicted a ton of PTSD for years afterward.

You could consider Nixon's victory in 1972 over McGovern one of the biggest results in all of U.S. history - where he won 60 percent over McGovern's 37 for a massive popular vote win 47 million over 29 million - but then you have to remember Nixon and his CREEPs orchestrated a dirty tricks campaign to guarantee running against a massively unpopular McGovern.

The most recent Democratic win on this scale would be in 1964, with LBJ riding on Kennedy's legacy and against an (then) extreme conservative opponent in Goldwater where Johnson got 61 percent over Goldwater's 38 percent and a 43 million over 27 million popular vote turnout. 

I could go back to 1936 when FDR blew Alf Landon out of the water with a 60 percent vs. 36 percent result, but you get my drift. Harris getting 63 percent would top every other electoral trouncing to achieve a Blowout For the Ages. Even if that percentage slides down, if she's anywhere near Reagan's 58 percent turnout we're still talking a huge win trump and the GOP can't lie about.

One other thing that accompanied those big blowouts in 1984, 1972, 1964, and 1936 (and even the milder landslides we'd see from Eisenhower's 1952-1956 wins for example) were the Electoral College results (maps are from the 270towin website):

It would be pretty to see a Harris/Walz Electoral Map where most of the United States will color in as Blue...

I would argue that back in those days the geographic divisions between Democratic and Republican - or Liberal and Conservative - voters were not as severe as we have today. Back then, the states were pretty well mixed between the major parties, and moderates between them would slide one election to the next between candidates without fear of being disloyal. 

You could get an Electoral College map that would overexaggerate the popular vote wins because the winning candidate got past the bare minimum to win there (Mondale almost lost his home state in 1984 by 2000 votes! And we know how Hillary lost Wisconsin and Michigan by similar margins to our detriment...). In today's partisan environment - and where liberals and conservatives relocated to states more attuned to their worldviews - it's not as likely for Harris to flip so many states Democratic the way LBJ and FDR did in their day. 

Having said that, if Harris is garnering - and keeping - 63 percent of voters by Election Day, that HAS to mean a large number of once-solid Republicans are abandoning their partisan stance (at least for this cycle), and across a number of otherwise solid Republican-held Red states to where a massive Electoral College win is in the pipeline. Not just Harris keeping the states Biden won in 2020, and not just flipping key battleground states like North Carolina and maybe Florida, and not just the almost-real possibility of finally flipping Texas: I'm talking nearly every Red state could be in play with those numbers (save for of course deep Red states like West Virginia, South Carolina, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho). Dear 9 readers of this blog: Even ALASKA is in play.

...

Okay, with all THAT said, this "What If" fantasy is pretty to think so, but in the real world my track record for predicting things hasn't been all that great to begin with.

Like I said near the beginning of this wishful thinking, that early 63 percent lead can easily slide down as more voters show up and if more of them are leaning Republican and trump. The trend may look nice but actual voter turnout is what counts, and the early pro-Harris counts from Republican voters could just be that voting bloc getting their ballots done before they change their minds.

But... given that a sizable GOP voter bloc IS voting Harris and getting away from the once-rigid partisan voting habits, we ought to consider the reality that Harris is getting way above the now-standard 50-to-52 percent of winning we've seen in recent cycles. Even if Harris matches the more modest result of Obama's big win in 2008 of 53 percent, we're talking 83 million votes (a nice boost over 2020) and numbers that trump can't challenge.

Voter turnout remains key, fellow Americans.

We need 99 million or so of y'all to show up and vote Harris/Walz for the blowout we need to keep America free from trumpian misrule.

This is what 99 million Harris votes could look like

Let's do this.

Let This Be a Sign Of a Strong Blue Wave This 2024

Update: ...

I still check on Infidel753's blog every Sunday - he does a weekly wrap-up of other online tidbits to read that are solid and cool - and I picked up on his article "Why I Anticipate a Blue Wave" from a few days ago. Inf makes some reasonable observations about what he calls "The Dobbs Effect":

My main reason for expecting a very substantial Democratic win is straightforward.  Since the Dobbs decision, I have believed that this election will be dominated by the abortion-rights issue, and nothing that has happened since then has given me any reason to change that assessment.  The need to restore and protect abortion rights will lead some Republicans (mostly women) to vote for Democrats, and will motivate many people to vote who would not otherwise have bothered.  These effects will swamp and overwhelm all other factors and will determine the outcome.

My supporting evidence for this claim is the results of all the abortion referenda, and almost all the elections, held since the Dobbs decision.  Every time abortion rights have been put to a public vote, they have won overwhelmingly, even in very red states.  Moreover, turnout in these referenda has been high, suggesting both that many Republicans are voting for abortion rights, and that many new voters are being motivated to participate.  As for the elections, in case after case since Dobbs, Democratic candidates have done ten or fifteen points better than the historic norm for the state or district involved.  Sometimes that shift has been big enough to allow the Democrat to win in a "red" district, sometimes not, but the point is that the shift is almost always there.  This recent election in Alaska continued the pattern.  Voters are well aware that Democrats in office will uphold abortion rights, while Republicans will attack them.

Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior.  This axiom applies to voting as much as to anything else.  I can't think of any reason why the abortion-rights factor would not dominate the federal election just as much as it has dominated other elections since Dobbs (if anything, it's increasing in importance).  Moreover, most of those surprising election and referendum results since Dobbs were not anticipated by polling, which predicted much closer, more "normal" outcomes.  This shows that the Dobbs effect is not being captured by polling.  That may be because many Republicans are telling pollsters they expect to vote Republican again and only changing their minds at the last moment, in the voting booth; it could also be that the pollsters' turnout models are not capturing the effect of so many new voters participating.  It's likely that the current polling we're seeing for the federal election is similarly missing the Dobbs effect, for the same reasons...

Infidel shared in his Sunday round-up link to a USA Today report that is tracking the Early Voting turnout - which has seen an increase in turnout compared to 2020 - showing that where overall turnout is balanced between Democratic and Republican voters, the percentage voting for Harris is at 63 percent(!). All things being equal, we can conclude that a significant percent - at least double-digits - of Republicans have crossed the aisle to support the Dems. Whether this translates to down-ballot seats isn't known, but if the Dobbs ruling is truly pushing moderate pro-choice Republicans to change sides those results should favor the whole Democratic ticket.

Again, this is not just speculation or wishful thinking.  It requires only that the voters behave as they have done in every election since the Dobbs ruling, and that the polls fail to predict this effect just as they failed to predict it in all those earlier cases.  Imagine if this November every state and district votes ten percent more Democratic than it historically has, or even just five percent.  A swing of five percent would mean a landslide; ten percent would be an annihilating tsunami.  I'm not saying something like that definitely will happen, but it would be consistent with the pattern of the last two years...

The polling, as Infidel noted, doesn't seem to pick up on the shifts happening with women voters - they seem to stick to the same 2020 models that White Women voters will stay with a Republican Party that devastated their health care rights two years afterward and are threatening even more harm to come - and as always the caveat is that voter turnout still matters. That 63 percent vote for Harris in early voting (with 34 to trump) is tempered by that same article noting the voters waiting for Election Day itself support trump at 52 percent over Harris' 35 percent with the same group... but that's nowhere near the numbers Harris is getting and promises to get by November 5th. Put those two sets together and the average you get - 63+35 for Harris, 34+52 to trump - splits to a 49 percent Harris vs. 43 percent trump result (the 7 percent different is going to third parties as usual). 

Of course, results will vary from state to state - not every Red state will shift 10 percent to favor Democrats, some may not even shift 5 percent - but if enough states DO shift in favor for Harris and the Democratic Party, we should see an increase in states (and Electoral Votes) more than Biden's results in 2020.

Those hopes I have of securing battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin grow stronger. The odds of keeping Georgia Blue as well grow greater. The possibility of flipping Texas, Ohio, Florida, even Kansas and Nebraska (maybe even Missouri) - any other states where the abortion rights referendum have happened or are happening now - are within reach of Democratic - and pro-choice - voters angered by the Culture War bullshit of the Far Right in their own communities.

Again. Voter turnout matters. Every vote in favor of Harris - and Democratic Senators, and Democratic Congresscritters, and State Legislators - needs to get into the ballot boxes now while Early Voting is still happening or on Election Day itself on Tuesday November 5th. Every blue vote matters, everybody. Stopping trump and stopping the Republican War on Women (and minorities, and immigrants, and schools, and Social Security, and...) is the mission.

Let's fucking GOOOOOO, America. Vote for Harris and every Democratic candidate you've got on the ballot. Vote like your life and your liberty and your families and friends are on the line. Because it all is on the line this 2024.

Update: thinking again about how close certain states were in 2020, if we consider a five percent shift minimum in favor of Harris for the Electoral count, the website 270towin has a map where states within five percent popular vote were left blank:

Now consider ALL of those blank states flipped Blue for Harris. Some already went for Biden - Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and especially Georgia - but now add in North Carolina and Florida(!). Even without the huge gain of flipping Texas - or my personal desire to see Kansas and Nebraska flip because THAT would break the "Heartland of America is Conservative" narrative in the Beltway media - that's still a massive 349 EV count and a good chance the popular vote for Harris goes over 90 million(!).

The only thing to worry at this point is if DeSantis goes full MAGA and declares secession in order to stop the Electoral certification. If Texas flips Democrat, I'll guarantee you the state GOP led by that jerkass Abbott will.

Think Happy Thoughts

I woke up Tuesday morning to a bad thought that if I waited until Election Day itself - November 5th, kiddos! - that I could show up to my precinct and find out the local Republicans somehow submitted a fake ballot in my name and take away my vote. 

Paranoid as I was - they can't really do that, right? - I decided to forgo the tradition of voting on the day itself. I went to the Bartow Early Voting location to go ahead and get my vote in the machine.

At the Polk Street Community Center

As I talked about earlier, there were key matters to vote on this 2024 election cycle, above all making sure donald "34 Felony Counts" trump won't cheat his way back into the White House and voting for a saner, competent Kamala Harris:

BALLZ TO THE WALZ, AMERICA

I made sure to vote for the Senate seat:

FCK YOU, "MEDICARE FRAUD" SCOTT

I made sure to vote Democratic for the Congressional, State legislative, and county seats by the by.

And of the six Florida Amendment referenda, here's my votes YES on Three (decriminalizing marijuana) and Yes on Four (Abortion rights for women).

Damn, the ballot sheets are longer than my arm...

Let there be no confusion: This is about letting
women control their own bodies instead of the
Culture War wingnuts

Part of me is worried I didn't ink that completely filled...

So now at least for myself, it's all over except waiting for the ballot counts.

And GODS HELP ME, I'm still stressed about it. And I know I'm not the only one. 

So let's try to look for the positivity reflected in how there is a better mood among Democratic and Left-leaning Independent voters heading into November. Anne Laurie over at Balloon Juice shared some good vibes via a post on Substack from Kevin Dillon:

My texts are full these days of “are we gonna be okay?” and, then, a beat later, “are you really sure?” Over and over, my answers are basically “yes” and “as sure as I can be...”

So, to save some time and in the spirit of “to hell with it,” here in one place is what data and my gut tell me I believe: she’ll win and outperform the polls. Trump will be rejected, as he has been in every election since he first became president - 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 - either where he was on the ballot directly or by proxy through candidates closely identified with him, including in multiple of the same swing states we’re all obsessing over now.

His campaign’s relentless focus on anti-trans ads will come to be seen as an epic strategic blunder, in addition to unforgivably morally repugnant. We’ll acknowledge that the supposedly disciplined, well-planned campaign to beat Biden never quite found its footing ever again once the candidate changed. We’ll remember that his one and only, and very close, win in 2016 came when he was, despite controversy, new and fresh and funny (to his people at least - and no small amount of journalists.) He was energetic, went EVERYWHERE, and was able to at least occasionally give the impression of being in on the joke and enjoying himself. In 2016, he had an underrated strategic ambiguity on what kind of Republican he was, whether promising to protect Social Security or maintaining a wink-wink ambivalence on abortion, aided by voters’ inability to truly imagine him doing the most outrageous things, or the horror of Roe being overturned. In his own way, he had a kind of disciplined, positive and constructive message about what he would do: make America great again, build the wall, drain the swamp. In 2024, he has none of it, much less the vitality and clarity of eight years ago.

We’re going to see afresh what’s been staring us in the face since 2022: Dobbs was a political earthquake, with aftershocks still reverberating out. It wasn’t just digested and processed in 2022 and now behind us. As much as Roe catalyzed a new movement for its opponents, brought in new groups of voters (many crossing old partisan lines), and energized activists for decades; Dobbs is doing the same here and now.

To the extent poll error happens, I believe it is likelier to be in her favor than his after eight years of pollsters obsessively focused on how to not miss Trump supporters. We are all understandably so traumatized by 2016’s loss, and so many were surprised by 2020’s margin (though notably, not the Biden campaign itself) that, even though there are fairly convincing theories for how each happened, we’ve become hostages of superstition and anxiety - even when we can’t quite articulate a good theory for why it would happen this time. And all this despite the various modeling geniuses gently and repeatedly reminding us there’s no iron law that every error happens in the same direction cycle after cycle, indeed that it might be a little weird for it to happen three cycles in a row...

We have to remind ourselves that trump's NEVER won the popular vote, that he's incredibly unpopular among the broad range of voters (even among some Republicans). We need to remember that unpopularity hurts him against Harris whose popularity numbers have gone up during the final stretch of the campaign (much like Obama's in 2008). I've said before people tend to vote for the candidate they like the most - it's not rational but emotional - and similar to Biden (who was popular then) outperforming trump in 2020 Harris can do the same this 2024.

Like Dillon noted, a lot of us on the Center-Left of the political spectrum were emotionally scarred  watching trump grab the Electoral College away from the popular vote winner Hillary (her unpopularity due to decades of hathos was a major factor in her loss). A lot of us still can't comprehend how 74 million people voted for trump in 2020 after all of the incompetency, aggression, open graft, and failures of his administration; and we're arguably terrified of the possibility he's convinced even more to vote again for him after his felony convictions and civil court fraud and rape findings.

We have to look to the sizable number of Republican voters showing signs of refusing to vote for trump again. There is hefty opposition by former GOP officials and former members of trump's own Cabinet, publicly denouncing him on a scale never before seen. We never had a similar number of aides and Cabinet Secretaries do this to the likes of Nixon or Ford or Carter or Reagan or Bush the Elder or Bill Clinton or Bush the Lesser or Obama; even when those administrations - especially Dubya's considering the failures of the economy and the mismanaged War on Terror - were clear disasters. These are things even disconnected voters will notice as they make their choice.

We need to enjoy the reality of how Harris and her Veep co-runner Walz are conducting themselves in this last mad dash to the finish line: With joy and exuberance and feistiness and hope. We need that hope to convert into turnout by the millions - higher than the 81 million Biden secured in 2020 - and to regain a kind of spiritual balance we lost 8 years ago.

Let's get the vote out, everyone, and vote for the right things: Vote for sanity and stability in the White House with Kamala. Vote for women's rights and freedom from wingnut cruelty. Vote for better representatives in our legislatures both state and federal. Vote FOR the bright future of 2025 and not the darkness of a trumpian dystopia.

(Hands still shaking while drinking iced tea) I'm calm... I'm perfectly fine... I AM A CENTER OF PEACE AND SERENITY! Ahem. Sorry.

This Is It. Early Voting Begins for 2024.

Early voting started in a number of states already, and while the turnout is higher than expected in several of them - North Carolina and Georgia especially - there's not really any hope that this turnout favors the Democrats over the evil that is MAGA trump.

We're in the final lap of this damned election cycle, yet another horse race for a national media that treats it all like a game while the rest of us living in the real world are terrified of the outcomes. I've been here before - on the edge of a war none of us can escape - we all have, and our nerves are as frayed as my friend Emily's:

So I've been feeling anxious & a little paralyzed about a lot of things that I very much have no control over & I'm trying to remember that I have no control over those things but I can have input. Election Day is coming up FAST. We can't control the outcome, but we can have input. Here's one way ⬇️

[image or embed]

— Emily L. Hauser (@emilylhauser.bsky.social) October 20, 2024 at 1:11 AM

If we existed in a nation that wasn't coping with a broken Electoral College system - and a voting system vulnerable to trumpian sabotage - maybe we'd be feeling more calm and saner heading towards Election Day. 

All we can control - each of us, in the corners of America where we live - is making sure we can get out to vote when we can - for example early voting to avoid the lines on Election Day for those who haven't gotten mail-in ballots - and then making sure within our circle of friends - the ones voting for Kamala Harris and for Democratic Senators and for Democratic Representatives and for Democratic State officials - also get their votes in when they can.

I would recommend getting to early voting if you're in battleground states especially ones where trump and his RNC lackeys are threatening to send in "poll workers" to delay, derail, or deny voters their right to vote on November 5th itself. It's harder for them to do it at the Early Voting locations due to the likelihood of interfering with NPA or GOP voters (they're hoping to sabotage the Democratic-heavy precincts filled with ethnic and youth voters).

The Republicans do not trust the actual majority of voters: They themselves are a minority party using suppression and gerrymandering to give them political power they don't deserve. The best way to stop the GOP from sabotaging - overwhelming the zone with their shit - is to overwhelm the ballot boxes with actual voters voting against that shit.

We can do this America.

Vote Democratic Party across the board. Deny trump and his Far Right cohort any victory everywhere.

Florida 2024 General Election Ballot: LET'S EFFING GOOOOO

So here I am coping with the outer bands of Hurricane Milton crossing overhead, finding the Sample Ballot for the 2024 general election sitting in my mailbox.

I don't do mail-in, I tend to vote on Election Day itself, but in the meantime here's the information my fellow Polk County residents need and for my fellow Floridians to consider whenever they submit their votes to the ballot boxes.

(The nine regular readers of this blog probably already know how this is gonna play, but it doesn't hurt to refresh)

President

FOR THE LOVE OF GOD AMERICA APPLE PIE AND EVERYONE YOU HOLD DEAR: do NOT vote trump. Considering everything I've written in the past eight years, my tune has not changed. trump is the most dangerous, self-absorbed, greedy, wrong-headed, racist, sexist, hate-driven son of a bitch this nation ever produced.

On the positive side, Kamala Harris has a record and reputation for competency, empathy, focus, commitment, sheer will. There is every GOOD reason to vote for Kamala.

Ballz to the Walz, people.

Meanwhile, RFK Jr is noticeably not on the ballot - which is funny in its own way - but he is on the ballot in other states, desperately trying to draw votes away from the Democratic tickets. Pay him no mind: His anti-vaxxing stance and his troubling personal misdeeds make him unlikeable to the liberal base. I'm asking all the independent voters (or the ones thinking to hold a protest vote re: Israel's genocide of Gaza) to just don't. The primary objective is to not give trump any advantage. HE'S the real threat.

Senate

There is a Senate seat open this cycle, the one occupied by Rick "Medicare Fraud" Scott who is most deserving to get kicked out of it. Partly because it'll be funny to watch his ambitions to become the Senate Republican caucus leader crumble to ash; Mostly because Scott has been a terrible Senator and a destructive presence in Floridian politics.

Running against him on the Democratic ticket is Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a one-term congresswoman (who had won as part of the 2018 Blue Wave) with a background in academics and social work. She's mostly focused on gun background checks and relief efforts for Venezuelan refugees. She's solid and she's cool. VOTE FOR HER.

Congress

There's 28 House seats up for election in the state of Florida and 20 of those districts are ridiculously gerrymandered towards Republicans (Go FUCK yourself, DeSantis) so it would be an absolute delight if enough Democratic and Indy voters turned out the vote to where Democratic candidates can win about 14 or 15 of those seats to give DeSatan BOTH middle fingers. Please and Thank You.

If there's good news, it's that state party leader Nikki Fried worked to get a Democratic challenger in every congressional district, giving local voters incentives to show up and vote. So let's do that, Florida. Flip the Sunshine State Blue.

State Legislature

I know it's hard going at the state level, but with every House seat up for vote and half the state Senate seats up for vote, it sure would be nice for Democratic turnout to break the near-absolute hold the Republicans have held on Tallahassee since the 1990s. Given all the lobbyist corruption and calcification - the failures by the GOP to fix our homeowner insurance regulations and lowering of costs has become painful to residents and HOAs across the state - we need a shift in the power alignments to force through needed reforms that one-party rule will never seek. This is serious, Floridians. Pay attention to the state officials who need to get swept out of the legislature for failing to serve our needs.

State Supreme Court

Our state uses a retention voting process for appellate and Supreme Court positions, and in this cycle two state Justices - Renatha Francis and Meredith Sasso - are up for consideration after being on the bench one year (retention will earn them a six-year term). 

Both Francis and Sasso are DeSantis appointees: On that alone, voting them out would be a huge - and deserved - black mark on DeSantis' standing. Francis in fact was denied an earlier appointment to the high bench back in 2020 (!) but it was more procedural - she hadn't been on the state bar for the 10-year requirement - than political. However, Francis has had a troubled history as a circuit judge even before her appointment in 2023, and she was clearly a partisan hire.

Both Francis and Sasso were part of the ruling upholding a horrific "six-week ban" - which is medically impossible - and dissented on the decision to allow the Abortion referendum - which would codify women's rights to get the health care they need, undoing that six week ban and requiring more sensible state laws - so their position on abortion rights are pretty clear. Kick them off the bench, vote No. While it's likely DeSantis will replace them with other Far Right appointees, the signal needs to be sent to the Republicans that Floridians want their rights over our own persons upheld.

County Sheriff

For Polk, it means Grady Judd is up for re-election (where are the damn term limits?) but at least this cycle he's facing a challenger in Theodore Murray. Judd, I swear, is more of a media hog than DeSantis, and whether he's good at his job or not he's been in that seat for too long (five terms since 2004!). Vote for Murray. It's time for fresh leadership.

Supervisor of Elections

Well, Lori Edwards does such a good job of mailing out notices and providing information and offering proper electoral services. Also she's NPA and the other choice is a Republican. Keep up the good work, Lori!

State Amendments

I've posted about the 2024 referenda earlier, but here's a recap:

Amendment One is allowing Partisan School Board elections. I'm of a mind to allow it because it means we'll see who the Far Right Republicans support, but the common consensus is that this will make an already fraught electioneering for vital community offices - especially as the wingnuts are warring on teen reading and trans students - more combative. I was leaning the other way - not because I'm pro-Party but because I'm pro-:Let's See Who The Crooks Are" - but by now I've decided to vote No on this.

Amendment Two is over the Right to Hunt and Fish, which would open up more hunting seasons - and hunting targets - across Florida. This would be a massive disruption to already fragile ecosystems and a severe threat to many of the endangered animals still in our open lands. This ought to be a huge No from all us voters.

Amendment Three is to Legalize Marijuana for recreational use. We had a medicinal use amendment pass earlier, but now - especially as the federal government is looking to reschedule pot as a lesser banned substance - there's the need to reduce the criminalization and incarceration that's become a gross injustice in our War on Drugs. Again, I don't encourage drug use, but I also don't see why we're over-pursuing punishments for a non-lethal drug like marijuana. We should be treating pot use as a health issue, not a criminal one. I'm a Yes on this one.

Amendment Four is the biggie: Protecting Abortion Rights for women. This would enforce the right of access to the medical procedure for women at-risk and ensure the bans are set at more appropriate time limits (say 23 weeks instead of 6). DeSantis and the other hard-liners are fearmongering like crazy to stop this one from passing, but it's polling above the 60 percent supermajority needed to pass and in order to save the lives of thousands of at-risk women we need to vote Yes for this.

Amendment Five is another Homestead Exemption bill, this time to Adjust exemptions to Annual Inflation. It'll basically use the Cost of Living Index to increase tax cuts to homeowners with dire impact to city and county governments that NEED property tax revenues to balance their budgets. This is a hard No, even coming from a Florida homeowner, because I'm tired of these Republican tricks to gut tax revenues.

Amendment Six offers to Repeal Public Financing for Statewide Campaigns, which would essentially allow PACs and dark money to overtake the costly campaigning at the state level where candidates who can't afford to run will be shit out of luck. We need to go the other way and require public financing for ALL campaigns, to get the goddamn corrupt forces of lobbyists and the uber-rich dominating our electoral choices. This should be a hard No, everyone.

Polk County Amendments

There is one item for the county Charter - Merging the Efficiency Commission to the Charter Review Commission - which would clear out some of the committee requirements and extend the Efficiency commission's work cycle from 8 years to 12 years. I don't know, this doesn't seem all that efficient to prevent the commission from working in closer cycles to keep up with the constant changes and demands on county services and resources. This could increase the bureaucratic logjam instead of lessening it. I'm inclined to vote No unless someone can show me honest projections of costs and improvement.

Pasco County Mosquito Control Board

You know, when I lived in Pasco County this was a big deal. I even had people show up on this blog because it was the only thing posting any information about the choices. Well, alas, I don't live there anymore so I can't be sure. I do know there's two seats open (One and Three), all of the candidates are from New Port Richey (seriously, Land O Lakes?) this cycle and the best I would suggest is voting for the candidates with the coolest names (owstophittingme).

--

As I wrap this up, the hurricane weather is picking up, I'm hearing thunderstorms in the distance, and I know damn well the local McDonalds is closed. Gods help me, Milton is coming.

If I don't make it out: Promise me. PROMISE ME NED. Promise you will vote Kamala Harris and Democratic party straight down the ballot. Promise me, Floridians, to vote Yes on Amendment 4 to save women's lives.

I hope to see you at the ballot this November.

What Trump Threatens

Update: Thank you Steve In Manhattan for including this article at Crooks & Liars' Mike's Blog Round-Up. I hope to see you all on the other side of Hurricane Milton as I'll be hunkering down in central Florida. If I don't make it... PLEASE get out all the votes for Harris/Walz and make sure trump goes away for good. And if I do make it... PLEASE get out all the votes for Harris/Walz and make sure trump goes away for good! Peace.

The hope is that the popular vote support for Kamala Harris - much like for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 - outpaces the vote for donald trump and that Kamala's numbers are strong enough like Joe's to win in convincing fashion with the Electoral College. trump has done nothing in his 2024 campaign to boost his standing with voters - he remains incredibly unpopular as of October 4th - to where it's unlikely he will ever win the popular vote.

What's troubling is how broken the Electoral College system is, to where trump can either repeat the upset he gained in 2016 or worse create enough chaos disrupting vote-counting to crash the election altogether.

American voters need to understand what's at stake here. People need to remember how disastrous trump was in the White House between 2017 through January 2021. We need to realize how trump threatens to be so much worse if he ever regains the presidency.

I know this will get long-winded, but know this:

trump threatens the entire concept of the Rule of Law. Just by his very existence. Never in our history - should trump bully, cheat, and lie his way into the White House - has a convicted felon reached the high office of the presidency. We had Eugene Debs running for it back in 1920 but he never stood a chance. We've had bad men, men with questionable morals at best - Andrew Jackson, James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, LBJ, Nixon - as President but never before someone with 34 guilty counts from a New York jury and facing more felonies once the election passes. We will have a lawless criminal in a position to avoid legal judgment, willing to break even more laws - now that the Supreme Court made sitting Presidents virtually untouchable - to ensure he never answers for his crimes.

And trump will extend that lawlessness to exact revenge on his enemies, whomever he feels was responsible for "humiliating" him with these charges and convictions. he turned the Department of Justice - especially under William Barr - into an instrument of his vengeance, seeking any means to bring Hillary Clinton to trial over her accusing him of illegal ties to Russia during the 2016 campaign. In his second term, trump will go after everyone - Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hillary again, Obama, even Republicans like Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney who opposed trump in the public arena - he thinks wronged him. trump will even use the presidency to destroy the prosecutors, judges, and juries who held him liable in civil trials and guilty in the New York criminal trial. E. Jean Carroll will be the target of his darkest ire. 

trump will do everything he can to wipe clean the documented history of his sins, and will punish everyone to do so.

trump threatens the rights and welfare - the very lives - of women across the board. Thanks to trump's tenure between 2017 to 2021, the Republicans placed three Far Right anti-abortion Justices on the Supreme Court, the culmination of their 50-year war to undo the Roe V Wade ruling in 2022. They did this to appease their Culture War supporters, but doing so was an unpopular move. This 2024, the Republicans - trump included - are trying to hide their responsibility for taking away women's personal rights, but it's an open secret the Far Right want a total national ban on abortion - and even all forms of birth control - and trump will happily sign that kind of legislation for them.

You can tell trump is still eager to push for stricter abortion bans because he's spreading bald-faced lies about "post-birth abortions" happening in Democratic-led states that he conveniently won't name. You know his campaign is looking to curtail women's rights with his Vice Presidential pick JD Vance out there attacking "childless cat ladies" and insisting women should be at home in the kitchen birthing babies.

trump back in the White House means more women will find themselves punished in some form or another - hit with "childless" taxes, pushed out of the workplace, squeezed out of higher education grants/scholarships, gods help us even directly attacked by wingnut community groups looking to punish and conform - in order to force women - White and Young (even high-school age!) - into life roles they didn't want.

trump and his Republican allies will take away women's rights. This is not fearmongering: This is fact.

trump threatens the rights and safety of Latino / Black / Asian / Arab communities, even the ones who are citizens and legal residents. We know this already: trump has been openly racist and unapologetic about it for decades. We also know what trump did during his tenure: One of the first official acts of his administration was imposing a travel ban on people from the Middle East, creating a massive outcry and incredible burdens on families and foreign allies. We know trump created harsher policies dealing with illegals crossing the southern border, pushing a family separation policy that ruined thousands of families, and led to the disappearance of hundreds of children (did we ever find ALL of them?).

A second trump administration will be worse. It's already public that trump's strongest anti-immigration ally Stephen Miller wants to deport 20 million alleged illegals and migrants, something on a scale beyond even previous attempts by hardline administrations (I will not repeat the name of that operation here, it was blatant racism). The horrifying thing is that based on reports there's not 20 million illegals - it might not even be 11 million - so if trump implements this agenda he will be forcing our government - trump wants to use military force to do it as well, an unconstitutional abuse - into rounding up thousands if not millions of legal U.S. residents all because of their skin color and lack of ID (and for those with ID the accusation those records are fake). We will be seeing the most vulnerable group of that getting targeted: Our children, our teens, our young adults rounded up and punished for trump's nativist rage. This will be the Republican Party - no, worse, the United States because we let this happen - at their our most cruel.

trump threatens to undo our nation's economic stability with his obsession to shift from income taxes to massive tariffs. Even after all the shocks to American industries and markets that trump's tariffs caused during his tenure, he's obsessed with the (false) belief that tariffs worked wonders in our nation's history - he's been pumping up the McKinley Tariff Act of 1890 as a (bad) example - and wants to make it so that all the taxation is done via tariffs. In spite of all the evidence - and basic understanding of economics - that tariffs place higher burdens on the poor while the rich get richer even as products get scarcer and more expensive. 

trump and his lackeys do not care that the last time we had massive tariffs put in place - the Smoot-Hawley Act - it made the economic crisis in 1930 go from a standard panic to THE GREAT DEPRESSION. Never mind the trade wars trump will trigger with other nations (depending on if trump uses the threat of tariffs to make those nations or industries pay him off). all trump cares about is ending taxes on incomes and dividends for the uber-rich. Everyone else will lose jobs, lose homes, lose lives.

And that's just on tariffs. trump's threatening to shift our reliance on the US dollar to cryptocurrency (his, no doubt). 

trump threatens to undo the federal government itself. Do some reading on "Project 2025," which had public ties to trump's presidential campaign until people took notice and recoiled in horror (forcing them to hide from the spotlight). trump's railing against the "Deep State" and proposals to "Drain the Swamp" will all lead to undoing the civil service merit system that's been in place since Garfield's assassination. Replacing around 50,000 workers throughout the federal government - who oversee regulations, enforce policy, deal with vendor contracts, provide public services - with trump loyalists who will ignore policy and procedure and do whatever trump tells them. It'll promote corruption - especially with contract biddings and deregulation of workplace safety and protections - on a scale we haven't seen since the Spoils System.

For all the griping by conservatives and libertarians, the federal agencies overall provide good - if slow or bureaucratic - services to the public at large. I've had people come to my library needing help with Social Security disability filings, and they've told me the local SSA offices treated them well and got them on the right programs. Our national parks are beloved and enjoyed. Travelers may gripe about the TSA but we know it's a price to pay for airline travel security. For all the complaints about the IRS, most Americans accept the responsibility of paying taxes and few are ever burdened with audits or accounting errors. There's 100 other agencies in the Executive branch and most of them function as intended because they tend to hire the right people for the jobs.

All of that would go away if trump and his lackeys purge the civil service and install their own cronies. Good customer service - yes, it's practiced by federal agencies - will disappear. Access to funds and grants will fall into a rabbit hole feeding to trump's pockets (or the pockets of corrupt allies). People who were hired based on actual experience and merit will get replaced by those without relative experience or even interest in doing the job properly.

The Far Right has been looking to take a sledgehammer to a federal government they hate because it doesn't play favorites - meaning it doesn't favor only themselves - when doling out funds to poor farmers regardless of race, aiding small businesses regardless of race, or regulating business practices to reduce consumer fraud (also affecting people by race, age, and gender). trump will be willing to swing that sledgehammer at our nation's foundation just so he can profit from the ruins.

trump threatens to end American diplomacy and strong ties to Western (aka anti-Russian) republics / democracies. trump will do this not only to appease his idol/BFF Vladimir Putin, he will do this to punish our European and Asian allies he knows mocked and derided him during his tenure.

It won't be like last time, when trump tried to shakedown NATO members to pay the United States - to pay himself - like a protection racket. If trump returns to the White House, he will exact revenge not only with his tariff wars but through acts of retaliation through breaking treaties and mutual pacts (trump loves to break existing deals because he can then force people to renegotiate with him directly, increasing his chances of personal profit). Given trump's open love for Putin and Russia, we can well expect trump to follow through on forcing the United States to leave NATO, exposing nations like Poland, Germany, and the Baltic states to Russian hegemony.

If trump does force us to leave NATO, he could force our military and State Department to forge ties to Russia as a new "ally" but in truth expose us to Russian takeover of foreign policy and military capability. Anything Putin wants - even some of our best technology and resources - trump will hand over without question. Granted, there will be massive pushback by everyone - even fellow Republicans - horrified by such moves, but if trump succeeds in corrupting the civil service with loyalists the debates will be short-lived and silenced.

We need to remember how trump's mishandling of classified information - a lot of it shared from and with our allies - was a major scandal even before he was caught with boxes of high-level intel at his Mar-A-Lago residence. If trump returns to the Oval Office, he can and will demand every classified document pass through his hands because he will believe he owns those materials, to the horror and disgust of our intelligence personnel if any survive the civil service purge. Our allied nations - NATO and otherwise, even Israel - will refuse to share any further intel with us, straining our foreign relations to where the unthinkable - the end of once-strong centuries-old alliances that provided trade, travel, and trust - will happen. Isolationism wouldn't even begin to define it.

No matter what, trump in office will mean Ukraine is screwed against Russia's invasion. 

In short: trump threatens everything and everyone - even his own followers - because trump only wants to serve himself at our expense. It will be American Fascism - all in service to Overlord TRUMP and his handlers/lackeys/brute squads.

I know I keep saying this, but for the LOVE of everything - God, America, Freedom, Mom and Apple Pie - do not vote for donald trump or his Republican allies. Please vote for Kamala Harris as President, please vote for every Democratic candidate on the ballots, please vote for every Pro-Women amendment referendum in the states offering them.

Do not let trump and his kind threaten us any longer.