Showing posts with label candidates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label candidates. Show all posts

Sunday, July 21, 2019

Predicting Character: The Force of Harris

The thing about Kamala Harris to take serious is her hardened sense of justice.

You saw that on full display in the first major debate among the 2020 Democratic candidates, where given the chance she eviscerated Joe Biden for his record as a U.S. Senator in the 1980s and 1990s opposing busing to desegregate schools. Pointing to her own childhood - how's that for anecdote - Harris argued how busing gave her chances at an integrated school to become the lawyer and political figure she is today. To her, it was a matter of social justice (integration) and legal justice (fairness).

That exchanged busted Biden, and boosted Harris to the top tier where Biden, Sanders and Warren were already tapped. She's arguably the candidate most opposed to Joe (while the narrative pits Sanders and Warren as rivals for the more Progressive primary voters).

So now that Harris is running with the big dogs now, what should we expect from her as candidate for President?

Harris' biography starts from her birth in Oakland to immigrants, a father from Jamaica and a mother from India. Both parents were scholars and social activists, which likely influenced Harris' growing up. While raised Baptist, her mom also had the family attend the local Hindu temple to keep in touch with her Indian roots. From there, Harris dual-majored in Economics and Political Science at Howard University, then returned to the Bay area to get her Juris Doctorate with UC Hastings College of Law (if she wins the Presidency, she'll be the most recent President who didn't get any degree from Harvard or Yale or Ivy League. And no, trump does not count: I doubt trump earned a college degree at all...)

Harris first came to national attention as the District Attorney in San Francisco back in 2005, when the likes of Newsweek magazine ran articles on her work. From the October 24 2005 issue (article by Karen Breslau):

...Harris... the hard-driving daughter of an Indian mother and a Jamaican father, both academics and civil-rights activists, grew up in Berkeley. But anyone who mistakes her for a softhearted liberal should think again. As a prosecutor in Oakland, Harris never lost a felony case sent to the jury. In San Francisco's most crime-ridden neighborhoods, Harris has become a hero --to mothers of murder victims, with whom she meets regularly to review the prosecutions of their children's accused killers. During her first year in office, Harris has boosted the conviction rate for felonies from 62 percent to 79 percent.
At the same time, she has also embraced innovative prevention strategies. For youthful offenders leaving prison, Harris is creating a re-entry program to provide schooling and job training. She helped raise money to build a safe house for teen prostitutes. "We have to dispense with old conversation about being 'soft' on crime or being 'hard' on crime," says Harris. "We have to talk about being smart on crime."
Harris's efforts to improve relations with the police department got off to a rough start when an undercover police officer was shot and killed shortly after she took office in 2004. Harris, a Democrat opposed to the death penalty, announced that she would instead seek life in prison for the accused killer. The decision enraged police. Despite those tensions, Harris and Fong continued to meet regularly, in part to signal to their departments that the work of law enforcement had to go on. Newsom gives the two women credit for continuing to communicate, unlike their male predecessors, who went for years without speaking to each other...
Despite the controversy, Harris seemed at least respected by local law enforcement, because her political career didn't take the hits an angry police union would dole out to anyone who crosses them.

From there, Harris moved up to California's Attorney General's office, where she made an immediate impact fighting over the post-Recession fallout (via Newsweek again in February 20 2012, byline Katrina Heron):

After multiple trips to Washington for heated closed-door sessions, Harris walked away last September from a deal highly coveted by President Obama and shepherded by a score of federal agencies, a proposed settlement between the 50 states' attorneys general and the five biggest banks involved in the home-mortgage crisis. "I have concluded that this is not the deal California homeowners have been waiting for," Harris wrote to the settlement's committee chairs, just nine months into her job, noting that more than half a million more homes in her state had fallen into the foreclosure process since discussions had begun in late 2010.
Harris's abrupt departure helped derail that agreement, and response to her move was swift. Some critics, including members of the financial community, spoke of a newcomer making an irresponsible gamble to enhance her own political stature. Those who approved saw a savvy bluff-caller doing her job for a state that leads the nation in homeowner woes, with 2.2 million borrowers currently underwater on their mortgages and seven of the 10 cities in America hardest hit by foreclosure. Still others believed Harris would never agree to a deal.
That last theory, at least, was put to rest on Thursday with the announcement that 49 states, including California, have agreed to a three-year, $26 billion settlement with Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Ally Financial. A formidable negotiator, Harris had pushed up her state's take from somewhere between $2 billion and $4 billion to $12 billion, with an estimated $6 billion more in value to owners coming from banks acknowledging the diminished value of homes. She also extracted special concessions on how the relief will be guaranteed and distributed. Along with other, equally intransigent AGs, Harris also prevailed against the banks' bid for across-the-board immunity, preserving for states the right to pursue their own investigations into how loans were made to borrowers and how they were then packaged and resold in financial markets.
Still, some critics branded the deal a sell-out (after all, bank shares rose), pointing out that it offers scant relief for those who have already lost their homes to foreclosure. Harris herself--for whom the settlement is arguably a huge political coup and a boost for any future gubernatorial run--did not crow. "We brought an $18 billion life preserver to homeowners who need relief right now," she told Newsweek in an interview after the deal was announced. "It's a good thing, but we have a lot more work to do. By no means are we done."
Harris... has never shied from a central role in the long-running negotiations. Sitting in her office under a portrait of Martin Luther King Jr., she was roused easily from professional calm to righteous fervor, revealing shades of the career prosecutor who first made her name battling the grittiest of crimes, including child sexual abuse. Her customary uniform of dark pantsuit, high heels, and pearls suggests a rather glamorous CEO, but the bursts of intensity are that of a courtroom dynamo, by turns compelling outrage and inviting empathy, disarmingly folksy and clearly comfortable under pressure.
That combination of charm and combativeness has marked her as a comer in Democratic circles, and she's adept in a wide range of social climes. In conversation, she brings up visits with elderly African-American women who became targets for fraudulent mortgage activity--"they are my grandmothers!"--and fondly remembers the black congregants at churches in Los Angeles who supported her campaign for attorney general. At the same time, the liberal white establishment of San Francisco has been her fundraising bedrock, and one of her best friends is the socialite Vanessa Getty, wife of a Getty Oil heir.
As a young assistant district attorney in the 1990s, Harris developed an expertise in domestic violence, child sexual abuse, and sex slavery cases. As district attorney in San Francisco starting in 2003, she reframed the legal lexicon around sex crimes, replacing the pejorative "teenage prostitute" with "exploited youth," and pushed for an amended state law that would ensure stricter penalties for johns. Common to these cases was "the pathology of the predator, the bottom-feeder," Harris said, adding that "be they a runaway teenager or a homeowner, an insidious part of the equation is the predator." While opponents labeled her as soft on crime, her record proved otherwise. Another focus of hers was on reducing recidivism.
Perhaps most noticeable is Harris's penchant for moral argument, which she traces to her mother, Shyamala Gopalan, a breast-cancer researcher of some renown who died in 2009. The India-born Gopalan came to the U.S. as a 20-year-old aspiring scientist and went on to several distinguished professorships. She and her husband, Donald Harris, a Jamaican-American academic, had two daughters; after their divorce Gopalan parented Kamala and her younger sister, Maya (now a vice president at the Ford Foundation), alone. "She was 5-foot-1 and you would think she was 6-foot-2," Harris said. "She told us, 'Whatever you choose to do, do it. Fight systems in a way that causes them to be more fair, and don't be overwhelmed by what has always been. You can see the potential and make it happen.'"

During Harris' campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2016, the Economist magazine in October 29 2016 had this to say:

More than a decade later, Ms Harris still puts her faith in data, as she cites crises that Republicans and Democrats alike know need to be addressed, in fields as diverse as criminal justice, immigration, the costs of higher education or the drugs epidemic that is as cruel a scourge in conservative rural states as it is in inner cities. Over a stop for iced coffees on the campaign trail, she says transparency is the key to building trust among people, and then between communities and government. To that end in 2015 her department began releasing torrents of statistics about arrests and deaths in custody across California. Nor is keeping the trust of the police forgotten: Ms Harris's department publicizes data on law-enforcement officers killed or assaulted on duty...
Washington skeptics may dismiss Ms Harris as a typical Californian progressive. It is true that her campaign ads boast of suing big banks for fraud. She also has a distinctly paternalist streak. Greeting an eight year old in his classroom, the attorney-general solemnly coaches him: "We shake hands and look each other in the eyes." Asked by a little girl about favorite foods, Ms Harris replies: "I like French fries, but I love spinach."
But Ms Harris is a prosecutor to her core, who approaches voters as she would 12 jurors of different backgrounds: "You have to point to the facts." Contemplating a country where millions feel displaced by change, she yearns to see another approach to politics tried: "to give people an image of what the future looks like, and to paint that image in a way that they can see themselves in it." Fierce, charming and eloquent, Ms Harris may be a big part of the Democratic Party's future too...
So with that as her biography for review, how do I view her as the candidate?

Kamala Harris - Senator, California
Positives: Driven, has a strong background as a legal prosecutor that makes her a tough debate opponent. Has enough campaign experience and enough career experience in law and administration to make her an effective President. Unwilling to back down from a fight. Behaves as though public office is a public trust. Is running on popular topics such as paying teachers better. Is genuinely charismatic and can work a crowd. If elected, would be the first Democrat from West of the Mississippi River since Johnson to win, and would confirm the importance of the most-populated state in the US. The Democratic candidate most likely to throat-punch trump first chance she gets.

Negatives: Does not have many legislative successes to claim (albeit working in a GOP-controlled Senate puts a clamp on that). Her track record as a prosecutor - even with the reforms she's championed - may hurt her among Progressives railing against police brutality. Does not guarantee flipping any key battleground states (California is so solidly Blue it may not elect another Republican to major office for the next 20 years). It's not her fault, but Harris is already the target of Birtherism conspiracy talk since her parents are both first-generation immigrants and the haters are arguing she's not a natural-born citizen (OAKLAND COUNTS, you goddamned racists). She's also a woman, and reviewing how badly the mainstream media tore into Hillary on gender issues alone suggests 2020 won't be any easier for women candidates. So we gotta go through ALL THAT crap again...

Chances: Rising. From the first debate where she pummeled front-runner Biden with his questionable stance on busing/school desegregation, Harris has more than doubled her polling numbers and is strongly in the top-tier. Continued strong performances on-stage - and any positive role she can play in Congress over the next year - could make her the winner in a tightly crowded top-tier that might send the results to a contested convention in 2020.

Character Chart: Straight out of the gate, we should agree that Harris follows the Active model of accepting the powers (and responsibilities of using power) that political office holds. It's more a question if she falls under Positive (using the office to enact major reforms, engaging crises with an open mind and eager for the challenge) or Negative (using the office to attain self-defining goals, reacting to crises unwillingly with narrow and unchanging beliefs) ways of wielding political power. Given what I've read and her career, I have to lean towards viewing her as an Active-Negative character (with caveats).

She displays an Uncompromising world-view, founded on what is clearly a firm belief in justice - her entire legal career is this - combined with the calls for social justice she inherited from her family. The Ambition common with A-Ns is tempered by the Active-Positive traits of thinking more in the "We Can" than "I Must" mindset, but her track record shows habits of unbending will. In most respects, she leans more towards Carter's character traits (maybe also Grover Cleveland) than other known Democratic A-Ns like LBJ. Unlike Hillary, whose A-N worldview made her unlikable, Harris has shown better skill at outreach and teamwork. She also hasn't displayed - yet - any of the troubling self-destructive signs that A-Ns have dealing with setbacks. Of the four major candidates for 2020, Harris is the toughest one to sort, but that Uncompromising descriptor best fits her than any other known trait. She's right on the fence with A-Ps though, much like Bill Clinton was bordering Active-Positive with Passive-Positive.

This doesn't make her a bad choice as President, though. We've had Active-Negatives as President who did not self-destruct in the ways Nixon or LBJ did. Under the right circumstances, an A-N figure in the White House would be able - willing in some cases - to clean out the corruption that most A-Ns see in politics. Unlike the type of Active-Negative trump is - one who accepts political corruption as a given and thus wallows in it for self-gain (the worst of Jackson, Johnson and Nixon) - Harris would be one who would genuinely opposes such corruption and fight against it (Cleveland again is the best role model here). This is where A-Ns have an advantage over Active-Positives who get too caught up in game-playing and Big Picture reforms that ignore the base problems that won't go away.

I've argued earlier that of the Democratic candidates, Harris is my top choice. I'm normally wary of A-Ns, but I do recognize that there are times - and this is one of those times - an Active-Negative geared towards reformative action is what's needed to fix a broken nation. The good news IMHO is that Harris shows signs of being personally incorruptable thus avoiding the kind of self-destructive scandals that plague lesser Active-Negatives.

Next up on Predicting Character: The one candidate I almost tagged as Passive-Positive... so now I get another chance to do it again.

Saturday, July 06, 2019

Predicting Character: Getting Ready for 2020

To the seven followers of this blog - can any of you just kinda, you know, raise a hand so I know you're still alive? - we're officially at the start of the Democratic primary race for the 2020 Presidential cycle, which means another round of me applying what I've learned from James David Barber's Presidential Character to predict which major candidates will end up on the Active-Passive Positive-Negative scales.

I won't need to do one for the Republicans as trump is running as the incumbent Loser of the Popular Vote, and his primary challengers are swamped by a rabid voting base that is literally worshiping the Shitgibbon as Jebus. I've already predicted trump would serve as an Active-Negative, and he has performed as Uncompromising, Compulsive, and Self-Destructive as A-Ns tend to perform.

But what about the field of Democratic candidates lining up to oppose him? Considering there's about 24 (or 26, hell make it 37) of them with hats in the ring, I may not have time to cover all of them before the actual primary counting starts happening six months from now.

So at first I'm going to plan on covering the Big Four - the names that have essentially claimed the top ranking on the roster - with enough detail to establish their characters and predict - with wild inaccuracy - which one will end up securing the nomination.

One thing to make clear: Of the four Character traits Professor Barber created, there's not really a clear favorite of "Oh, we MUST vote this one into office above all others." The traits themselves are not necessarily bad, they merely warn us what we should expect from the nominee's world views and likely behavior in office.

For example, an Active-Positive type may seem the best option but many A-Ps commit sins like overreach and most often fail to achieve goals because they're too Adaptive to stick to an agenda. Meanwhile, Active-Negatives are angry, self-destructive types but do have the drive to achieve their agenda (for good and for ill) and in some cases can be more successful at policies than an A-P ever could. And Passive-Positives may be prone to scandal-plagued administrations but are also effective deal-makers and managers during relative calm periods on the global stage. (Funny enough, very few Passive-Negatives run for President: They have to be drafted into it, so we'll rarely see one in a competitive field of candidates...)

So it won't matter, at least not right now, if our top four names - Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren - will be Passive-Positive, Active-Negative, or Active-Positive (I can tell you right now none of them are outright Passive-Negative). What will matter is "Which personality traits do Democrats think can outperform trump in November and secure victory in 2020?"

P.S. I did cover Biden back in 2016 (as well as 2008) but very briefly and without in-depth evaluation of what Character he'd be (although the title of my article should be a giveaway). I shall go into greater detail when the time comes...

P.S.S. to make it fair I rolled a 4-sided die, alphabetical order, best of three. Harris is up first.

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

I Know 2020 Is Coming Soon, I Just Wish We Had a Chance To Sleep In First Before the Primaries Overwhelm Us

I am loathing the non-stop cycle of the "Horse-Race" campaign coverage by the media, so coping with the incoming Democratic primary race is gonna hurt my soul.

Thing is, people are announcing now, have announced, and may still announce their candidacy for the 2020 primaries. So attention must be paid. Candidates must be scrutinized. And my predictions made utterly ridiculous early and often because most of the time I get the wrong impressions and back the wrong candidate. Sigh.

I'm also not thrilled about how 2016 ended up. The Republican primaries fell into madness thanks to a bullying and sadistic con artist in trump going up against a weak field that couldn't walk their rabid fanbase back from the cliff's edge. The Democratic primaries ended up a foregone conclusion of Hillary getting the nom but alienating a Far Left base that backed Bernie to the point that support for the Democrats floundered (it did not help that both the mainstream media - which hated Hillary - and Russian meddling crippled voter support in key states to twist an already-broken Electoral College to flip the election to trump).

 So here we are for 2020, facing the horror of trump being in solid position - despite his own mismanaged administration alienating enough voters - to win re-election (stop screaming, everybody) if the Dems fail to raise voter support again.

If there's any good news, voter turnout in the 2018 midterms hints at increased voter turnout in 2020... as long as media manipulation by the Russians and Hillary-haters doesn't depress it again. But the Democrats need to ensure they nominate a more popular figure than Hillary (even I admitted back in 2016 that Hillary wasn't well-liked... I just believed and hoped she was more well-liked than trump). The good news on that front is that so far nearly every Democratic candidate throwing their hat into the ring are more popular than trump (polling in the 50s while trump flounders around 40 percent).

So who exactly are the candidates (listed alphabetically with highest government office) worth our time and support, America?

By the by, David A Graham at the Atlantic is running a 2020 cheat sheet for candidates, so do keep up with his input please and thanks:

Michael Bennet: Senator, Colorado
Role as: The Guy Running as a Centrist From a State That's Turning Into an Up-and-Coming Progressive Hotbed
If Bennet Wins the Nomination: He had to beat his way past a lot of better-known White guys on the national stage, as well as win over enough Far Left voters who'll be wary of his Establishment creds.
Bennet Can Win It All If: He can get out of the second-tier rut that career political guys like him get stuck in. Right now, he's best suited to be a viable Vice-Presidential choice due to geographic necessity (there hasn't been a Democrat on the major ticket as Prez or Veep that far West since 1964). Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Joe Biden: Vice-President, Delaware
Role as: The Savior Candidate That the Beltway Likes And Then Will Immediately Humiliate Five Minutes Later To Enhance Their "Bipartisan" Cred
If Biden Wins the Nomination: The Progressive Left BernieBros will throw a conniption that he crashed into Bernie's "victory" parade.
Biden Can Win It All If: he can genuinely keep the factions in the Democratic ranks aligned to him, avoid the pitfalls of his constant faux pas screwups, and... and... Sigh. Not gonna happen. Seriously, Joe. Just stay on the sidelines like you did in 2016. You're in a safe spot as Party Elder. Getting into a Presidential campaign you've NEVER shown skill-sets for is a bad idea. You're committing a serious faux pas now regarding your misguided belief that Republicans are bipartisan at heart (NO THEY ARE NOT). Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Cory Booker: Senator, New Jersey
Role as: Obama Part II
If Booker Wins the Nomination: It means he ended up as the compromise candidate between the party faction who fear Bernie would be too socialist and the party faction who fear another woman candidate like Warren or Harris will scare away the general election voters.
Booker Can Win It All If: He genuinely impresses during the primaries as a consensus candidate able to stand as a strong Liberal candidate able to win Progressives to his side. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Steve Bullock: Governor, Montana
Role as: Centrist Dem From a Small Population State
If Bullock Wins the Nomination: It means he won over voters with his Western, small-state populism that may work in rural communities but comes across the urban voting base as uncomfortable Centrism.
Bullock Can Win It All If: Doubtful. I think he's not even invited to the debates, which is sick. In previous election cycles a Governor - especially over amateurs like a motivational speaker - would get invited no matter what. He'll be lucky to be on the VP short list at this rate. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Pete Buttigieg: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana
Role as: That Straight Gay Guy from College who was best friends with your girlfriend but kept it low-key with you at gatherings so it never felt weird one way or the other
If Butiegig Wins the Nomination: It means he won over voters with his Mayor Pete persona and a genuine charisma that rivals Obama's.
Buttiegig Can Win It All If: If can get past voters' squeamishness for a candidate with... no national political leadership (looks at motherfucking trump and shakes head). Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Julian Castro: Secretary of Commerce, Texas
Role as: That High School President Guy whose obvious law school future kinda made him act like a self-centered jerk but he was the one who came through with hiring the garage band for that house party so we're cool with it
If Castro Wins the Nomination: It means he outbid Mayor Pete in the charisma department and outlasted Biden, fellow Texan Beto, and others to the "Heir to Obama" title, as well as getting past the Progressive base wary of anybody who's been deep with the party Establishment as long as he has.
Castro Can Win It All If: He can convince Texas to flip Blue while keeping the 2012 Blue states aligned to the Democrats. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Bill DeBlasio: Mayor, New York
Role as: The Guy Ripping Off Other People's Roles (c'mon boss, Buttigieg beat you to the "Mayor" clique weeks earlier)
If DeBlasio Wins the Nomination: It would cause the Republicans to create fake "Law And Order" ads accusing DeBlasio of committing ALL the crimes in New York City since 1990. Ding Ding!
DeBlasio Can Win It All If: He can convince enough Americans he's done a good job of running the largest city in the United States - which he kind of hasn't - and deserves a shot running the country: Thing is, I don't think he can win re-election in NYC right now anyway. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

John Delaney: Congressman, Maryland
Role as: I Have No Idea
If Delaney Wins the Nomination: I Have No Idea other than the Russians DID hack the elections again.
Delaney Can Win It All If: Is he even invited to the preliminary debates coming up?! I have no idea...

Tulsi Gabbard: Congresswoman, Hawaii
Role as: Insane Sorority Girl Who Sent That Crazy Email
If Gabbard Wins the Nomination: It'll be due to her Syrian buddies hacking the elections as well as the Russians.
Gabbard Can Win It All If: Are you joking? She's actually the least-liked candidate - due to her odd foreign policy stances - on the board. When you're the Either/Or punchline to pop-up Twitter polls with DeBlasio or Bernie, that's never a good sign. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Kirsten Gillibrand: Senator, New York
Role as: The Hillary Replacement (literally) who doesn't have the same baggage Hillary had
If Gillibrand Wins the Nomination: It will be with a party divided between the pro-business Centrists - coming from New York, she kind of can't avoid that - and the socialist Progressives who might view her as just another Establishment figure who "stole" the rightful nomination from You-Know-Who.
Gillibrand Can Win It All If: She can get out of Hillary's shadow in more ways than one and make the goddamn mainstream media give up their disdain of women candidates for the White House. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Kamala Harris: Senator, California
Role as: Stern Neighborhood Mom who ran the PTA but kept the Bible Thumpers from burning everyone's Harry Potter books
If Harris Wins the Nomination: It means she won over voters with her tough-seeming stances and confident campaign style (and probably enough Dems hoping she'll physically punch trump in the mouth first chance she gets). But she's going to have to get past the Progressives who view her background as a hard-charging prosecutor as a detriment rather than view her current calls for reforms as "evolved."
Harris Can Win It All If: The goddamn mainstream media gives up their disdain of women candidates for the White House. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

John Hickenlooper: Governor, Colorado
Role as: That Poor Guy Who Has to Fill Out Legal Forms That Don't Leave Enough Space for Long Last Names
If Hickenlooper Wins the Nomination: the bumper stickers are going to have to be twice as long than usual.
Hickenlooper Can Win It All If: It means he had to beat back a fellow Colorado candidate hogging airspace as well as a field of better-known political figures on the national stage. All joking aside about his name, Hickenlooper is a competent candidate but also the kind that ends up being a second-tier player who usually ends up on the winner's Cabinet roster (and if he's from the Rocky Mountains, that's usually the Interior posting). Sorry. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Jay Inslee: Governor, Washington
Role as: That West Coast Guy Nobody's Heard Of Who Might Make a Decent Veep Candidate but probably won't
If Inslee Wins the Nomination: It means his agenda on sticking to a Climate Change/Eco-Friendly campaign won over the voters.
Inslee Can Win It All If: He adds on Warren's multilevel platform as a broad agenda to win over enough voters to a relative unknown. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Amy Klobucher: Senator, Minnesota
Role as: That Cool Sheriff from the movie Fargo
If Klobucher Wins the Nomination: Her homestyle persona won over voters despite not getting enough attention to her issues.
Klobucher Can Win It All if: The goddamn mainstream media gives up their disdain of women candidates for the White House. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Wayne Messam: Mayor of Miramar, Florida
Role as: Florida Man
If Messam Wins the Nomination: I think the rest of the nation will officially saw the Sunshine State off of the map like Bugs Bunny only for reals this time.
Messam Can Win It All If: Hnnnnn, don't make me laugh. I'm from Florida and even I know this is crazy. He's not making the first debates and nobody on the national level will ever recognize who he is. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Seth Moulton: Congressman, I forgot the state
Role as: Tim Ryan's Scapegoat
If Moulton Wins the Nomination: It means people forgot he tried taking down Pelosi as Speaker of the House and failed miserably.
Moulton Can Win It All If: He can't. He came at the Queen and missed. Nobody at the national stage thinks of him as a player. He missed the debate cutoff, that's how little support he has. He's probably not even on anyone's VP list. I doubt the Russians will hack any election for him.

Beto O'Rourke: Congressman, Texas
Role as: The Lead Guitarist for That Cool Garage Band from your high school/college days that never hit it big, damn the record companies
If O'Rourke Wins the Nomination: He could guarantee flipping Texas blue in 2020 (he barely lost in a midterm, when turnout is habitually lower). But he's got to run on solid Democratic (read: Liberal) platforms. And right now, his policy ideas aren't impressing...
O'Rourke Can Win It All If: he can translate the media love for his charisma into voter support for his centrist track record. But it's unlikely given how often Beto is putting his own foot in his mouth. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Tim Ryan: Congressman, Ohio
Role as: Passive-Aggressive Middle Manager at the corporate office
If Ryan Wins the Nomination: Doubtful. His highest-profile moment had been a palace coup - along with Moulton - to unseat Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker after Dems retook the House in the Midterms. He's not exactly Mr. Popular within his own party. His only saving grace is coming from a key battleground state - Ohio - that makes him a player on the national stage.
Ryan Can Win It All If: He can convince the Democrats and enough Indy/Republican voters his Centrist "Bring Back Jobs" Message can win voters. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Bernie Sanders: Senator, Vermont
Role as: Your Uncle Who Doesn't Understand Why Nobody Wants to Talk About 1970s-style Euro-Socialism at the family barbecue.
If Sanders Wins the Nomination: You're going to hear a lot of Hillary voters complaining before physically holding their noses to vote for him in November
Sanders Can Win It All If: He can convince enough Hillary voters to forgive him the various backstab moves he'd pulled in 2016 - and is pulling now - and to forgive his rabid and tone-deaf base who obsessively hate Centrists more than they do the Far Right. Problem is, of the major candidates Sanders is the one with the most baggage and the most polarizing hate. As much as Progressive turnout for Hillary fizzled, there's a risk of Centrist Democrat/Indy fizzle if Bernie embarrasses or insults them as a bloc. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Elizabeth Warren: Senator, Massachusetts
Role as: The College Prof with the reading syllabus that actually rocks
If Warren Wins the Nomination: The Republicans and the Beltway media will play it up as yet another Northeastern Liberal Elitist (not to mention trump and the GOP likely bashing Warren over her questionable Native ancestry claim from years ago), but it would signal another genuine attempt for Dems to elect a woman President, this time with a candidate with stronger progressive values (and positive polling numbers) than the less-liked Hillary.
Warren Can Win It All If: the goddamn mainstream media gives up their disdain of women candidates for the White House. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Marianne Williamson: Motivational Speaker, Somewhere
Role as: Seriously?
If Williamson Wins the Nomination: It's because the choice came down between her and Gabbard.
Williamson Can Win It All If: Ahem. Lemme go straight to the punchline. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Andrew Yang: Businessman, New York
Role as: A Technocrat with a single-issue platform and no political power base or national profile
If Yang Wins the Nomination: It would be insane. Granted, he's not as evil as trump, but you'd think the Democratic voting base still cares for such priorities as EXPERIENCE for the job, fer crissakes.
Yang Can Win It All If: The Russians don't hack the elections again.

Did I miss anybody? (Joe Sestack hops into the ring yesterday) OH FUCK YOU I AIN'T REWRITING THIS FOR THE UPTEENTH TIME. This is it, the list for 2020. OKAY?! Okay.

Personally?

I am pining for a Harris victory for several reasons - I agree on her education platform of paying teachers better, which plays into both stronger jobs-based economy AND improving our schools - and have Warren - who's got a plan for that - as my favorite back-up choice. I'm not a fan of Bernie - obviously - but I will vote for him if he wins because trump is evil. I'm not a fan of Biden - man, I keep telling you just stick to the Mentor role you're good at - but will vote for him because trump is evil. I'm kinda saying that for any Democratic nominee... but I do hope the final candidate is a competent, multipurposed and positive figure able to draw more than 50 percent of the electorate to vote Democratic across the board in 2020.

But I'm hoping beyond anything else that the confirmed Democratic ticket is a Harris/Warren or Warren/Harris match. YES. An all-woman ticket. BECAUSE FUCK YOU, INCEL GAMERGATE HATERS. Ahem.

Here's hoping the Russians don't hack the debates as well as the elections.

Wednesday, June 08, 2016

A Brief History of Women Candidates for President of the United States

In honor of Hillary Clinton earning the delegate count - granted, it's not official until the Convention or until Bernie wises up - to stand as the first female candidate of a major political party for President of the US of A, a brief listing of women candidates. It's not a full list, as there are a platoon's worth of minor third party candidates who barely register a blip on the radar. These are the ones who got caught made significant contributions:

Victoria Woodhull - 1872 - running on the Equal Rights Party

Newspaper owner/editor, stockbroker, rabblerouser.

Her campaign ran into a few difficulties: primarily, she was still technically under the age limit being 34 years old at the time of the election (she wouldn't have been 35 until six months into the term of office). This was also a period in our history when women barely had the right to vote let alone hold elective office. Oh, and every state refused to put her name on the ballots. She also ended up in jail during the election cycle due to mailing out her newspaper in November that year accusing prominent religious leader Henry Ward Beecher of adultery (the excuse was an open attempt at censorship).

Belva Ann Lockwood - 1884 and 1888 - National Equal Rights Party

Prominent suffragist, became the first woman to practice law before the Supreme Court, and the first woman to actually appear on ballots to receive votes. She won over 4,000 votes, for about... um... .04 percent.

Gracie Allen - 1940 - Surprise Party

Yes, THAT Gracie.

Was originally part of a "joke" campaign that allowed her and her husband George Burns to tour the nation working a stand-up routine. She still won 42,000 votes, a record at the time. And was still more qualified than Donald Trump...

Margaret Chase Smith - 1964 - Republican Party

First woman candidate to try and represent for a major party, which meant access to ALL ballots and a 50-50 shot at winning the whole thing. Was a moderate, almost liberal Republican... in an era when the conservative faction under Goldwater was seizing control of the party for his doomed effort against LBJ. Had elective experience in both the House and Senate, which clearly made her more qualified than Trump...

Charlene Mitchell - 1968 - Communist Party

First African-American woman candidate for the Presidency. Was only on the ballot in two states, and barely got over 1,000 votes total.

Shirley Chisholm - 1972 - Democratic Party

Had elective experience as the first African-American woman elected to Congress as a representative from New York in 1968. Won herself a handful of delegates, being the first major-party female candidate to do so, but was still not enough to place better than fourth in the 1972 Convention. Still, she became an inspirational figure within the Democratic party itself, viewed as a serious chance for both Black and Woman demographics to represent for the Presidency, and was regularly touted as the spiritual predecessor to both Obama AND Hillary (in a nice touch, Hillary showed a clip of Chisholm at her victory speech last night).

Lenora Fulani - 1988 and 1992 - New Alliance Party

Notable for being the first woman candidate to gain ballot access in all 50 states (nearly every other woman candidate not listed here were limited to few states and thus had little electoral impact). Also made history with the most votes garnered - over 200,000 - in 1988 for any woman candidate, a record that wouldn't be touched until 2012.

Monica Moorehead - 1996, 2000, maybe 2016 - Workers World Party

Not really newsworthy except for two things: the Ralph Nader people blame HER for Gore losing to Bush in 2000 - since she got 4000 votes that year, while Nader stole 2.8 million from Gore and ruined everything, screw you Ralph - and she's once again running for the office this year, so, you know, it's current.

Jill Stein - 2012 and 2016 - Green Party

Set a record for most votes for a woman candidate in 2012 with 460,000-plus votes, which barring a total meltdown by the Democrats is likely gonna get beat by Hillary Clinton getting millions of Democratic votes this election cycle. Highest elected office has been serving on a town's council somewhere in the dark forests of Massachusetts... which still makes Stein more qualified than Trump. And also maybe a Ghosthunter if the rumors of eldritch abominations roaming the New England countryside are true.

Hillary Clinton - 2008 and 2016 - Democratic Party

Didn't quite win it all in 2008, but has won the delegate count and is pretty much the nominee for 2016. It's still up to 67 million Democratic voters who came out for Obama in 2012 - as well as any other voters horrified by Trump - to show up and vote for Hillary in 2016.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

At Some Moment The GOP Leadership Thought To Themselves "What Could Possibly Go Wrong?"

I remembered earlier today that I had once started a Republican Dead Pool for the Presidential candidates, and that I had pretty much blown it. I mean, here's a copy of that list:

Perry (September 11)
Walker (September 21)
Gilmore (February 12)
Santorum (February 3)
Pataki (December 29)
Paul (February 3)
Graham (December 21)
Christie (February 10)
Fiorina (February 10)
Jindal (November 17)
Carson (March 4)
Huckabee (February 1)
Cruz
Kasich
Rubio (March 15)
Trump
Bush (February 21)

And I am really slightly disappointed that Zombie Jeb! didn't keep things interesting by limping along in a massive shambling heap of denial.

I was reminded again when I saw this on Twitter:

Lol remember how the Republicans have this deep, formidable bench this cycle hahahahahhahaha

Sunday, February 07, 2016

What Happened At Last Night's GOP Debate

With the New Hampshire primary vote coming up this Tuesday February 9th, we're about to get more crazy results from an increasingly disturbing Presidential campaign cycle.

Whereas the Iowa Caucus can get discounted, the New Hampshire vote is a more serious affair: the mechanics of a primary is more streamlined compared to a caucus and so the results are more clear, and New Hampshire's voting bloc - more libertarian than religious conservative - counters the results Iowa gives towards social wingnuts.

That said, the two parties hosted one more debate round this past week. With the Democrats now whittled down to two - Hillary and Bernie - it made their debate last Thursday easier to follow, and despite the attacks between the two over policy differences there was at least a sense of comity.

About the Republicans' debate this Saturday night?

Ye Gods.

Never mind the confusion that happened during the introductory walk-out, the debate itself was a disaster.

On the bright side, the debate opened with Marco Rubio - the anointed Savior of the Establishment who "won" Third Place in Iowa - getting his prepped spiel shoved back down his throat by an alert Chris Christie. Rubio's habit of reading off and repeating the same line "Let's dispel this notion..." over and over - a nice trick for campaign rallies but foolish for a live debate - got called on by Christie who noted such platitudes don't resolve specific issues, and that leadership involves showing up and making decisions (an open attack on Rubio's poor attendance at the Senate). When Rubio's reply was the exact same line he keeps giving, Christie interrupted with glee: "There it is! There it is. The memorized 25-second speech. There it is, everybody."

Twitter is an unforgiving and cold reality. #RubioGlitch and #RoboRubio hashtags spread like wildfire.

You have to give props to Christie, who needed to punch his way upward this debate to find any traction to build his flailing campaign back from the brink. He's still stuck somewhere in fifth or sixth place, but if he can impress the state GOP voters that he's got the leadership skills - the advantage a governor-candidate has running for President - he could move up to OH BOY the coveted THIRD PLACE every pundit likes.

Either him or fellow governor-candidates Jeb Bush or John Kasich. Jeb! apparently convinced the pundit class that he was still sober, and Kasich didn't say anything offensive which convinced the same pundit class that he was still sane.

But the entirety of the debate revealed serious psychological and intellectual flaws for the entire Republican Party. As Will Saletan notes at Slate:

The disaster, the blame game, and the establishment’s surprise at what’s happening are related. Since President Obama’s election, the GOP has abandoned its role as a national governing party. It has seized Congress not by pursuing an alternative agenda but by campaigning and staging votes against anything Obama says or does. The party’s so-called leaders have become followers, chasing the pet issues of right-wing radio audiences. Now the mob to whom these elders have surrendered—angry white voters who are determined to “take back their country” from immigrants and liberals—is ready to install its own presidential nominee. The Trump-Cruz takeover is the culmination of the Grand Old Party’s moral collapse...
...Republicans no longer have a policy agenda. They have a scapegoating, base-stoking agenda. Their economic plan is to blame legal immigrants for the demise of upward mobility. Their social policy is to defund the nation’s leading birth-control provider and promote disobedience of court orders. Their foreign policy is to carpet-bomb Syria, insult the faith of our anti-ISIS partners, and void Iran’s pledge to abstain from nuclear weapons production...

I've mentioned it before on this blog: for all the talk about how the Republicans were "fielding strong candidates" this election cycle we're getting a lot of wounded ducks instead. Every potential candidate has serious flaws that would - not could - cripple the GOP's chances in the general election.

There are several reasons Trump is polling in the lead - STILL even after finishing Second in Iowa - and one of them is the fact the entire Republican field is terrible.


  • The Designated Front-Runner in Jeb! turned out to be terrible at campaigning, period (and wasting PAC money to boot). 
  • Pundit favorite (from 2012) Christie turned into a bully with unresolved and REAL scandals trailing him. 
  • The latest Pundit favorite Rubio has no legislative record he can run on (even mentioning his own failed efforts at immigration reform hurts him). 
  • The crowd favorite Carson has no elective or political experience at all, and his lack of knowledge involving the issues can underwhelm.
  • The candidate performing best this early phase of the primary cycle is Cruz, who panders best to the evangelical base but has alienated his own party's leadership to the point open rebellion could happen if Cruz wins. Cruz's scheming and abrasiveness has made him DC's Guy That Nobody Likes.
  • Token female candidate Carly Fiorina came in with huge baggage as a failed CEO of HP and made it worse by lying so much about Planned Parenthood even fellow anti-abortionists ignore her.
  • The Only Sane Candidate Kasich has a track record that looks great on paper for a general election, but has made enough moderating moves such as backing Obamacare that the Far Right base of the GOP won't vote for him in the Primary.
  • Gilmore? Gilmore hasn't dropped out yet?
  • All topped off by TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP, a massive blowhard with no elective experience whose policy positions are scatterbrained except for the one he's keyed on: a hard-right anti-immigration agenda that would drive 99 percent of the Hispanic vote out of the GOP with no guarantee of picking up any other voting bloc to compensate.


And remember, these are the ones who haven't dropped out yet. That's a field including the likes of Perry, Walker, Jindal, Huckabee, Pataki, Graham, and Paul. Some of them with impressive resumes but bigger flaws that drove them out early.

And all of these candidates are touting a Republican platform of massive tax cuts for the rich and the corporations, defunding a popular health program in Planned Parenthood, pushing an unrealistic foreign policy of "bomb everybody", and a deregulatory agenda across the board that would privatize our schools, public utilities, and social aid programs that we've seen will collapse into chaos without said regulations. There's honestly very little distinction between each candidate's positions on those issues: all that's left to decide on are the personalities, and that's no way to choose effective leadership.

It's a choice between flawed people. From a political party promising another Big Reagan, all they are offering the electorate this 2016 are a bunch of Little Nixons.

There are no grand leaders of bold vision - no Roosevelt, no Rockefeller, no Goldwater, no Kemp, not even Bob Dole - among the Republicans anymore. The party is made up of hollow men (and women) who follow right-wing media talking points rather than carve out and create solutions. Because creating solutions would take initiative and daring (and bipartisan effort), and nobody wants to risk alienating their voting bloc.

Even the real Richard Nixon was able to lead on issues, taking surprising action on various matters (Nixon To China) and working with his political opponents in Congress. His political descendants, his lesser children - the ones who follow his footsteps in the wake of his personal implosion over Watergate - can't even comprehend how to do that.

This is a serious question:


  • Can you picture what it would be like in 2017 if our President was Jeb? We'd have a rehash of his brother's administration, the same players who caused our woes of 2001-2008.
  • Can you picture a Trump presidency? An internal war of mass roundups and deportations among a ton of civil rights violations as he pushes the anti-immigration policy he campaigned for.
  • Can you picture a Cruz presidency? Having campaigned on an evangelical agenda, Cruz will likely shred the First Amendment and the Constitution's No Religious Test rules, and go about carving a Fundamentialist Christianist "utopia" that will put blind faith as policy over all.
  • Can you picture a Rubio presidency? How can you: he hasn't done anything of merit to go by. He's been so robotic and empty-suit a candidate that if he does get into the White House he'll likely disconnect from setting policy or any activity, leaving it all to others while he enjoys the perks of the office and none of the accountability.
  • Can you picture a Christie presidency? Just take the worst elements of the Nixon administration - the backroom bullying - and turn it public.
  • The only candidate who even looks like he could form an administration with bipartisan and forward-thinking policies - based on his track record - would be Kasich... and even he will get hamstrung by a party platform that will dictate no deviation from massive tax cuts.


Not to mention what our foreign policy will look like regardless which Republican goes into the White House. Our stance of "bomb bomb bomb" in the Middle East will alienate even our staunchest allies - UK, France, Germany, India, Japan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia - and the entire world could conceivably come up with plans to sanction and isolate the United States. They've openly debated in the British Parliament about banning Trump from traveling to their nation due to his racist Mexican-bashing.

The scary thing is that the way our electoral system is geared, two major political parties will have to offer up a candidate for the White House this 2016.

And one party - the Republicans - are doomed to offer up a Tyrant-In-The-Making, someone obsessed with a harsh Far Right domestic agenda at odds with an increasingly Left-leaning and progressive nation.

This is getting serious, people.

I dread how this is all going to play out in my home state of Florida. We're due to get the ad push any day now, with our Primary just one month away...

Wednesday, February 03, 2016

There's Now Leg Room In the GOP 2016 Clown Car

When last we left our intrepid wingnuts, Iowa happened and with it being the First Round of GTFO for anyone polling lower than rock fungus, we were due for a few of the underwhelming performers to bolt for the nearest exit with their hopes dashed and their flowing tears lapped up by social media taunters who enjoy the fresh taste of schadenfreude in the morning.

On the eve of the Iowa Caucus itself, we had Huckabee slinking away to see about getting his job at Fox Not-News back, with Democratic candidate Martin O'Malley just not even getting the media attention of his departure. Meh.

Today, we opened up with Rand Paul suspending his operation and just a few hours ago Rick "Don't GOOGLE ME" Santorum packing it in as well.

This means we need to update the GOP Dead Pool at this very moment, which may change tomorrow if more candidates drop out:

Perry (September 11)
Walker (September 21)
Gilmore
Santorum (February 3)
Pataki
Paul (February 3)
Graham (December 21)
Christie
Fiorina
Jindal (November 17)
Carson
Huckabee (February 1)
Cruz
Kasich
Rubio
Trump
Bush (note: technically still alive)

So far, I would have lost the bet with Jindal leaving way earlier than expected with Graham also departing before the likes of Santorum (who had been polling for ages well below any threshold of recognition this cycle).

It's interesting to note that Fiorina has fallen into minuscule numbers and had even committed the sin of not even showing up for her own Iowa party. If I had to redraw the Dead Pool list I'd move her to the top alongside Gilmore, who apparently hasn't gotten the memo that people still don't know who he is. Dammit Jim, you're skewing the spin!

On the other hand, the clown car candidate list has shrunk itself down to nine names, which could allow for the upcoming debates to invite all of the candidates on-stage. However, the party - and the cable channels - are likely to shrink the major all-star lineups from their current 7-8 debaters down to a more manageable 6, forcing the lesser three - currently Gilmore, Fiorina and Christie/Kasich - into the kids'-table debate. They wanna drop a hint or twelve to the lesser mortals to clear out and let Rubio secure Third Place behind Cruz and Trump.

Who you got fleeing for the greener pastures of the Sunday talk show circuit?

Saturday, December 26, 2015

The Primaries That Should Scare Everyone Including Republicans This 2016

I mentioned earlier getting into an argument with a Twitter-Troll over Rubio's lack of chances this 2016, and pointed to how the polling was currently going for the candidates and how previous election cycles demonstrated how the polling numbers tended to line up - give or take a switch of positions by candidates running close to each other - with the actual voting results.

That means: if the candidate is polling well leading up to the actual primary in that state, that candidate is going to get those results where it matters (actual delegates). Polling does include actual voters as well as likely voters, dontcha know.

In that regards, considering how Trump is leading in nearly every state, we ought to be f-cking sh-tting the beds and rioting in the streets. This is not a good thing to consider, is it?

This is where and how the delegation counts come into play. A lot of Republican primaries and caucuses tend to be proportional, so that if Trump only gets about 23 percent of a primary result, he'll get the plurality of delegates but not a solid majority. Hence the thinking we can see a brokered convention in Cleveland this 2016 since Trump may not garner enough delegates to cross the finish line.

Except for one fact: some states are Winner-Take-All, where the top vote-getter gets ALL (or most) of the state's delegates. There are certain rules that allow other candidates to get a few delegates from a WTA state, but the key word there is "few".

One other thing about that fact: some of the largest delegation states - Florida, Ohio, California - are WTA. Granted, some states' rules do break down to allow candidates to win selected districts if they can - California in particular - but the odds are whoever wins the whole state is winning a lot of districts as well.

If we look at my home state - Florida - the delegate count is 81 District, 15 At-Large, 3 RNC for a total of 99. The rules are "Winner-take-all: At-large and district delegates are both allocated based on the statewide vote," which I think means whoever wins the statewide polling gets both District and At-Large (RNC gets delegated another way). Meaning whoever is leading in the polls by March 15 2016 can well win Florida, and that's a guaranteed 96 delegates. If you're Second Place, you don't even get a set of steak knives.

Look at who's leading in Florida right now in the polls. Donald Trump, with no sign of major drop in support over the last two-three months. Ted Cruz may be polling now in Second, but he's on average about 10-14 points behind, not enough margin for statistical error to consider he's even got a chance. (If there is any satisfaction from this polling, it's that Jeb is so far behind in Fourth Place that there's no way he can cheat his way to win his "home" state)

It'd be helpful to look at each state's polling for candidates, to get a clearer picture of who's winning by how much, but there doesn't look to be - unless I'm looking in the wrong spots - a lot of polling going on outside of battleground states. I'm currently looking at Real Clear Politics for tracking the numbers, which only gives me a lot of Iowa and New Hampshire, some South Carolina and Florida results. The last poll for Ohio they've got is from Quinnipiac for October, which doesn't help. That shows Trump in a bare lead (+5) over Carson, and we know Carson has slipped nationally since then.

All we have for certain are the nationwide polling results, with Trump garnering on average 36 percent of primary voters: he's leading double-digits over everyone else, which may mean he's leading - at least polling in the Top Three - in every state, meaning he's leading in the delegate counts as well.

March 1 may be when a lot of states poll their caucuses and primaries, but they're mostly Proportional wins with threshold requirements: They may give the candidates grinding out Second through Sixth Places hopes of snagging enough delegates to matter in July. But March 15 is A Day of Reckoning: that's when Florida and Ohio both chime in with their WTA results, and with large enough delegate counts to put one candidate - Trump, OH GOD NO - well ahead of the others.

And like it or not, momentum from February and March carries a lot of weight even into June during primaries regardless of what the party's leadership - and deep-pocket backers - wants.

Florida and Ohio are key. He who controls the spice controls the universe those two states get a huge lead in the horse race heading into California in June.

Which is why I'm begging the residents of Florida to drop out of the Republican Party and switch to NPA. I don't want my state to screw over the nation AGAIN if it ends up being Trump. I'd like to think there's...

Wait a minute. I'm being told if I talk people out of the GOP, I'm likely getting the sane voters whereas the insane voters will stick with Trump. Okay. Okay, gotta go the other way then. Gotta convince 4 million registered Florida Republicans to put their support in a sane candidate for the GOP. Okay, sane candidate... (looks at Kasich as the only sane one left) Oh, c'mon John, you gotta AT LEAST be winning YOUR own home state...!

Tuesday, September 08, 2015

Some Thoughts About 2016 While It's September 2015

For your consideration:

1) Neither of the Establishment candidates expected to do well - Jeb Bush and Scott Walker - are actually winning the early rounds of polling and campaigning.  Granted, this is the early stage portion of the horse race where the wild and wacky fringe candidates or White Knight "outsider" figures tend to stir up the extremist fanbase among the Republicans.  However, last election cycle's Establishment guy Mitt Romney was still a viable-looking candidate, sticking to his script and keeping his head above the metaphorical waters.

You cannot say the same for both Jeb and Scott: As of the first week of September they have both fallen into single digits in the polling.  And the political media is full of stories about Jeb! and Scott The Union-Buster struggling to find momentum or a winning narrative.

There may be still time for the "Establishment" big players to readjust and use their overwhelming money advantage to simply swamp over voters into either voting for them or else just get disgusted with the whole thing and not show up at all.  But the window of opportunity is shutting fast: if both Jeb! and Walker are polling in single digits by the end of October, might as well stick a fork in both of them and serve them up next to the Thanksgiving turkey.  Because that is a clear sign they've lost too many voters to win any of them back in time to dominate the primaries.

2) While Fiorina slid into a tie for sixth place in the polling, two of the top five in the GOP race are Trump and Carson.  Essentially half of the top candidates getting serious consideration right now lack any elective experience whatsoever.

The media is starting to pick up on how the Republican voting base views the entirety of politics altogether: with utter disdain and distrust.  They've been told since the Clinton years that the Democrats are a threat to "their" nation (some of this animus goes all the way back to Carter and LBJ) so there's the part where the GOP voters hate that half: what's becoming unreal is how a sizable (over a quarter at 27 percent) faction among Republicans are hating/mistrusting their own party.

The rush towards Trump and Carson as anti-politicians may explain their rise to the One and Two spots in the polls.  The question is, will the fervent anti-Establishment mood carry well into the actual primaries, or will the primary voters "wise up" and vote for "sensible" candidates that could, you know, actually win over centrist/moderate independent voters who look for such things as competency and experience?

I'm not betting on it.  As long as there's fifteen candidates duking it out into the early rounds, it's a good bet nobody will be securing enough delegate wins to develop the needed "momentum" to convince later voters to back the "winning" name.  There's enough anti-Establishment outrage there to have enough voters back either Trump or Carson or even Fiorina well across all fifty states (plus territories).  Even if one drops out, the likelihood is that the other non-pol becomes the favored flavor of the month: I doubt Trump backers will switch over to Jeb if Trump quits/gets blocked.

3) One of the oddest things I've noticed so far is that few if any candidates are openly pitching any economic policies.  If they are, the media's done nothing to tout them.

We've only just now gotten Trump's position on economic policies - other than his trade war with China and border wall with Mexico - and he's open to the idea of taxing the rich.  Which is total anathema to the Republican party leadership.

As for taxes overall, there's barely a peep about tax cuts, one of the bread-and-butter issues that (used to) get the Republicans stoked.  We've kind of reached Peak Tax-Cut Rhetoric in a way: the Republican dogma (sans Trump, who doesn't give a rat's ass about the party ideology) is so affixed to supply-side Laffer Curve trickle-down tax cuts that there's almost no need for the candidates to stake a claim on the issue.  It's just a given that the Republicans will slash taxes for the rich and corporations as soon and as often as possible.

Update (9/10): Spoke of the devil and the devil appeared.  Jeb! finally came out with a tax plan that has gotten the media elites to comment on it... and it's the same dredge of massive cuts to tax rates for the upper incomes.  Jordan Weissmann at Slate.com uses the phrase "magical thinking" to describe it, and it's an accurate epitaph because like all previous GOP tax-cut plans it operates on the belief that these grand tax cuts to corporations will immediately transform into investments and job growth.  (Hint: they don't.  Tax cuts to lower incomes families, however, DO translate into more jobs...)

I'm still not convinced Jeb! is going to win over the voters he's lost with a shiny tax cut package: it's become a moot point behind the red-meat issues of hating immigrants and dissing women.

4) Watching the second-tier names like Christie, Huckabee and Cruz fight over the table scraps may be fun, but in the meantime they're putting out policy ideas and fear-mongering outrage that will hamper honest dialog about our need for serious reforms well past the September debate and into the 2016 primaries.

Oh, and one more thing:

5) This is still way too f-cking early to have people running for the Presidency.  We've got all these f-cking months of gaming out this horse race with nothing really tangible to worry about until January 2016.  We'd all be better off capping elections to just the f-cking year said elections are supposed to take place.  No f-cking ads, no f-cking fundraising emails, no f-cking debates and suck-up events, just no.  We gotta fix this damn thing first before we can fix anything else broken in our federal government.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Predicting Character: You're a Little Late to the Party Kasich

So here we go officially, getting the 16th name on the list so we can get our free-for-all Thunderdome battle royale.  Today Ohio Governor John Kasich announced his run for the Republican nomination for 2016.  Back to David Graham at the Atlantic who decided at some point this year to be a masochist and document the cheat sheet:

...In fact, Kasich might not make the stage, either—even though the first forum is being held in Ohio, the state where he’s governor. Despite a reputation for policy smarts, Kasich seems like a longshot, too moderate and technocratic for a Republican primary electorate, and possibly too peevish to handle voters and donors alike. But he’s a brainy candidate, his super PAC has raised a decent sum, and the fact that he hails from an important swing state will give him an outsize impact...

Another writer at the Atlantic, Molly Ball, goes into a little more detail, and points out how Kasich might actually stand out from the other 15 names in the field.  Because he's one who has not stuck to the orthodox Far Right script:

Kasich’s transgressions against conservative orthodoxy are many. He supports the Common Core educational standards, which the right loathes; he says he would consider allowing undocumented immigrants to become citizens; his state budgets have cut a lot of taxes, but raised others; and spending has increased on his watch. Conservatives’ primary complaint is that Kasich singlehandedly accepted the Obamacare-Medicaid expansion for his state, thus making him complicit in the most loathed policy of the loathed Democratic president.
But Kasich’s heresy is bigger than these specific ideological transgressions. It is tonal—he has golfed with Obama and generally declines to attack the president personally; he has justified his Medicaid decision on the basis of Christian compassion for the poor. And it is philosophical—Kasich is witheringly dismissive of the anti-government absolutists in his own party. “There's a sort of fantasy out there, or a myth, that we can just cut all the government and that'll give us our lower taxes,” he told me when I visited him in Ohio in February for a profile I was writing. “It doesn't work that way. You can't just get rid of all these programs and say, ‘People, just spontaneously do it!’”

Kasich still got two problems: 1) He's running in a primary for a political party that skews so far Right Wing with its voting base that there are not enough moderates inside the ranks to side with him, and 2) He's nowhere near - at the moment - making the cutoff line for the all-important first debate in August.

Calling Kasich a moderate might not be the right word to use: but compared to the rest of the field, his demonstrative faith in a functional bipartisan government - the fact he accepted dreaded Obamacare funds for Medicaid, that he's raised spending in Ohio during his tenure - puts him to the left of nearly every Republican leader out there.

Kasich is still at heart a Republican.  He's demonstrably pro-business in favor of mass deregulation, still favors tax cuts in general as policy, and tends towards social conservatism as a personal world-view.

He was also at Lehman Brothers during the build-up to the economic collapse of 2007-08, which doesn't exactly give him credit points for fiscal wisdom or smarts.

So who is Kasich?  In what respects should we identify his world-view and establish what Character traits he could employ as President?

The biography shows a son of regular middle-class parents from the Great Lakes region born of the Baby Boomer generation.  Interested in politics since college - he made the effort to meet with Nixon, something he openly prides in - he'd been involved in elected offices from the state level up to Congress.  From there he gets tabbed for House Budget Committee chair duties when the Republican gain control of the House in 1994.  From there (via the newspaper Columbus Dispatch):

...in 1994, new House Speaker Newt Gingrich tapped a 42-year-old fiscal hawk named John Kasich to lead the House Budget Committee.
He chose Kasich, Gingrich told The Dispatch, because he had “courage, intelligence, drive, ambition and a willingness to dream big...”
...He was the brash young lawmaker who managed to annoy virtually every interest group in Washington, on either side of the political spectrum. But he also forged a series of unlikely and sometimes startling alliances in his quest to get things done...
“...Just because party leadership was thinking one way didn’t mean John would follow blindly,” said Bruce Cuthbertson, a longtime Kasich aide who now is a GOP consultant. “But along with that independence was the idea of always trying to build coalitions, trying to find reasons to work with people rather than find reasons to work against them...”

His tenure as governor since 2010 gives us an idea how Kasich would perform as a national executive: slashing taxes but also keeping government functioning and serving the needs of the public.  Kasich's most notable moves on the national stage highlight the fights and follies of being a modern Republican: his first term focused on dismantling the power of unions in his state, which failed when a voter-driven referendum overrode his efforts; his second term focused on accepting Obamacare's Medicaid expansion, which the party base viewed as betrayal.

Oddly enough, Kasich's remained popular both terms.  Which means he plays well for Ohioans despite the rancor of the national political figures in his own party.

So how would I chart Kasich?

John Kasich - Governor, Ohio
Positives: Long-term elected official with more experience - legislative and executive - than every other candidate in both parties.  Won re-election handily in a toss-up state, one of the key large-population battleground states for 2016 that the Republicans desperately need to even have a chance at winning.  Unlike other governors during his tenure - Jindal, Christie, even Walker - has remained popular in his own state.  Is viewed as more fiscal conservative than anything else: while he's still pro-fetus he's openly pro-people on gay marriage, and argues a Christian faith - the reason he supports Medicaid for the poor - that avoids the demagoguery the social conservatives enable. Has a reputation for abrasiveness but somehow inspires personal loyalty where least expected.
Negatives: Is coming very late to the ongoing horse race, with far too many candidates ahead of him on the wait list.  Not exactly Mister Personality, has a reputation among his own colleagues for brusque and curt behavior.  While he's ambitious, has a blase attitude about campaigning for President.  His bipartisan focus may appeal to moderate and independent voters, but he has to survive getting through a primary system dominated by partisan voters who'll abhor such tactics.  Despite his tax-cut stances, is still hated by fiscals conservatives for increasing state spending (an honest question would be has Kasich been able to balance the state budgets on a consistent basis?). One of the few Republican figures to support Obamacare, for God's sake that's like a Democratic candidate openly supporting Dick Cheney's foreign policy positions.
Chances: Even with his name being floated for months, he hasn't broken into the Top 10 names on the polls.  It is likely he could see a boost now that he's official, but he's got to steal polling numbers from candidates viewed of the same cloth as himself, which aren't many (Jeb, Rubio, Walker, Graham).  His resume might impress but his own personality won't.
Character Chart: I keep coming back to how the Republican party itself leans so far over to Active-Negative behaviors - rigid Uncompromising attitudes above all - that every Republican candidate is pretty much going to fulfill that character.  Kasich is the only one so far making me re-think that position.  His case history, while conservative, highlights a political figure who acts as though government can be effective.  His willingness to buck national dogma over Obamacare points to a possible Adaptive trait.  Among the current Republican candidates, he's the closest any of them get to being an Active-Positive.

It's too bad he's got to go sell himself to a crowd of voters who want Active-Negatives demolishing everything about government just to tick everybody else off.  I doubt Kasich can win enough delegate votes to even justify showing up at the 2016 convention.