Are We Winning Yet? Nope.

trump's war on Reality Iran took a nasty turn this weekend when the quagmire expanded and made things worse (via the AP Newswire at NPR):

Yemen 's Iranian-backed Houthi rebels captured the island of Mayun at the entrance of the Red Sea, a key alternative for shipping Saudi oil and other exports since Iran has been targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

The island's seizure was confirmed by a senior military official with Yemen's internationally recognized government and a Houthi official. Both spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to journalists.

About 12% of the world's goods are typically shipped through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. It's especially important to Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. ally.

Combined with the possible shutdown of another trade route, Iran's allies in Iraq punched Saudi Arabia at another key chokepoint:

Saudi Arabia said Friday it had shut down a major, cross-country oil pipeline as a "precautionary measure" following attacks the day before. The Saudi Energy Ministry did not say who carried out the attacks.

The East-West pipeline has been vital to Saudi Arabia continuing oil exports in the months since the Iran war has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

In a statement early Saturday, the Iraqi government said Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered an investigation into the operations command in Maysan province and dismissed its commander after authorities determined that attacks targeting Saudi Arabia were launched from a site in the province.

Based on other reports I've seen on social media, the Houthis had been considered a "non-factor" the past month and that the Saudis had them contained. Now, the insurgents pulled off a Tet Offensive of their own, demonstrating how vulnerable the global trade markets still are and giving trump and his regional allies huge black eyes (via Barak Ravid at Axios):

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) called President Trump twice Thursday, urging him to launch strikes against the Houthis as the Iran-backed group closed in on a vital Red Sea chokepoint, two U.S. officials told Axios.

Trump declined, and U.S. officials stressed the administration has no plans to intervene directly against the Houthis for now...

The midterms are coming, trump - or at least his handlers - has come to realize that any further escalation on his part in the region would only anger the voters here at home opposed to his unsanctioned war, and hurt the Republicans' chances of keeping both parts of Congress. So trump is doing as little as possible - publicly at least - while claiming 'victory' and 'we're winning' in spite of the facts.

Gasoline prices are fluctuating here in the U.S. for now for regular consumption, but diesel - the fuel needed for trucks and transportation - has skyrocketed, meaning costs are going up for goods everywhere in the next week or so. These Houthi raids are also underscoring how little control the United States has in the Middle East after decades of mishandling the Global War on Terror.

trump started a war he can't finish, based off of wars that Bush the Lesser couldn't finish, which couldn't get finished by Obama or Biden because they inherited these messes and there were no good answers for any of it.

Serious Stuff for Sunday Part Two: Escalation (w/Update)

It's not something on the front pages every day, but there's been a war going on between Saudi Arabia and Yemen that has direct ties - via military aid and God knows what else - to the United States.

It's been bloody, with UN and humanitarian groups condemning the worsening conditions in the war-torn nation of Yemen. While it's in action a border clash, it's also an escalation of hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran - which is backing the Houthi uprising - over which side - Sunni vs. Shia - is dominant in Middle East affairs.

Early this Saturday, the escalation bumped up a serious notch when a couple of major Saudi oil installations were struck by drones causing enough damage to shut down half the Saudi oil production (via Ben Hubbard, Palko Karasz, and Stanley Reed at the New York Times):

Drone attacks claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels struck two key oil installations inside Saudi Arabia on Saturday, damaging facilities that process the vast majority of the country’s crude output and raising the risk of a disruption in world oil supplies.

The attacks immediately escalated tensions in the Persian Gulf amid a standoff between the United States and Iran, even as key questions remained unanswered — where the drones were launched from, and how the Houthis could have managed to hit facilities deep in Saudi territory, some 500 miles from Yemeni soil...

The Houthis said they had launched the aerial attacks with 10 drones, which would amount to their most audacious strike on Saudi Arabia since the kingdom intervened in Yemen’s war more than four years ago. The Saudi-led bombing campaign has devastated the poor country and exacerbated the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

The Houthis are part of a regional network of militant groups aligned with and backed by Iran, Saudi Arabia’s regional rival, and U.S. and Saudi officials suspect that Iran has dispatched technicians to Yemen to train the Houthis. U.N. investigators have written that the Houthis have advanced drones that could have a range of up to 930 miles.

The targeted oil facilities can process 8.45 million barrels of crude oil a day between them, the bulk of production in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter. Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil giant, said production of 5.7 million barrels a day — well over half of the nation’s overall daily output — was suspended...

These kind of attacks can have serious global repercussions. Saudi Arabia is one of - if not the biggest - the major suppliers of oil used in transportation, energy, industry, everything. There may be other sources of national revenue - the mining of iron and copper and gold, for example - but putting a dent in their major industry is going to sting.

I got a line memorized from the movie Risky Business. Guido the Killer Pimp telling Joel "In times of economic uncertainty, never EVER fuck with another man's livelihood." It's actually sound advice: It's not only our means of income, but that livelihood defines who we are, no matter how lowly it's a point of pride to any person. Even in good economic times you just don't mess with another person's job. You fuck with that, you piss us off.

Think of the Saudis as a person, more specifically the royal family who runs all of it. What the Houthis just did - fuck with Saudi oil exporting - will get the Saudi royals really pissed off.

Making this worse is the revelation of a new form of warfare: Drone bombing. It's been an advantage of the United States and other technically-advanced nations to use drones as a means of engaging war zones without loss of personnel. But now we're at the point of drones as weapons themselves, akin to the kamikaze pilots of Imperial Japan, only remote controlled and likely harder to stop. Given the range here - 900 plus miles - the Houthi can attack a lot of places in Saudi Arabia to "bring the war home".

Everything here is escalation. Houthi Yemeni escalating against the Saudis. The Saudis guaranteed to escalate against all of Yemen. A possible escalation against Iran by Saudi forces, turning the Straits of Hormuz into a straight-up war zone.

This is more than likely going to bring in the United States and a lot of the European nations (maybe even China and half of Asia).

Wars never end well. Wars can get bloodier in a heartbeat when the dynamics and objectives change.

Gods help us.

Update 9/15/19 9:13PM: I am starting to see tweets about trump promising the U.S. will support Saudi Arabia's military escalation with a "locked and loaded" boast.

Even with warmonger John Bolton kicked out of the White House last week, he's still getting his wish of a war with Iran. FFFFffffffuuuuuu---