Showing posts with label Don't Vote Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Don't Vote Trump. Show all posts

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Good News: September 2024 Edition

Gods, I feel like a negative nabob half the time. So let's try some good news.

I may not trust the polls but the late September numbers keep favoring Kamala Harris for the presidency over donald "34 count felon" trump.

Harris leads over trump in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Again, polls don't vote, voters do: So get the damn vote out Democrats.

Just a reminder that the mainstream media polling services - due to billionaire owners or their own craven needs - skew too much rural and conservative, meaning the pro-Kamala numbers should be even more in her favor (and that the tight races in other battleground states aren't really favoring trump).

The polling, for example, shows a tighter race in Alaska for Harris and Democrats than the past 30 years. Harris' numbers in Nebraska - where the shared Electoral College results by congressional district established a single EV dot in a Red State - are strong enough that the Republican Party is trying to pressure the state legislature to undo the shared Electoral and go Winner-Take-All. But there's signs Harris - thanks to her VP ally Tim Walz, who's from Nebraska - could flip the whole state Blue. Again, get the voters out to vote this November, Democrats. (Psst: Fight for EVERY state - well okay maybe not West Virginia, that's a lost cause - just to keep trump from clearing the Electoral College hurdle!)

Thanks to Richardson's escalating scandals, there's a growing chance Harris - and the whole Democratic ticket - can clinch North Carolina. If that happens alongside Harris reclaiming the battleground states Biden won in 2020, there is no way trump and his lackeys can stop the count and claim "they stole the election".

Even trump's schemes to undo the results are going to hit a wall: the Electoral Count and Presidential Transition Act of 2022. That cleaned up a number of loopholes and grey areas at the state level about challenging election results, and required election certifications done certain ways to minimize partisan sabotage. Granted, trump's legal team are going to test that law and insist on undermining the vote counts in key states/counties, but considering how their lack of evidence undercut their efforts in 2020 will be the same this 2024, it's doubtful he and his lawyers will prevail (the one negative thing to consider: That the trump-loving Supreme Court will break the entire Constitution in his favor when his legal battles reach their bench).

A Presidential win for Harris/Walz won't be enough: which is why the signs of a 2024 Blue Wave affecting the Congressional/Senate races provide a positive buzz. Again, voter turnout matters.

The encouraging news on that front: Democratic voter enthusiasm is increasing this 2024.

Voter turnout remains key, America. Republican efforts at voter suppression can't stop that, no matter how hard they try. If we can get the turnout for Kamala over 81 million - Biden's record - trump and the Republicans can't overcome that.

All this good news comes with that call to action: Get the damn vote out.

Get to work, America.

Sunday, July 21, 2024

Everything Changed Today

So I woke up today to this stuff getting posted in Bluesky Social, but because I haven't figured out how to embed those posts into this blog I went to Twitter (fuck you, Elon, it's not X) to do this:


"I FEEL LIKE I'M TAKING CRAZY PILLS" times infinity.

It case the tweet goes bad, I screen-captured:

This? This is what you get when you think
quoting the HMS Pinafore all the time makes you smart.

I did read it just to see if it's as bad as Clymer says, and Gods yes it's terrible. Sorkin's idea of a unity candidate is - get this - going for a Republican candidate... Mitt Romney.

MITT FCKING ROMNEY?!

Not only is it offensive to suggest the Democrats have to roll over and take a REPUBLICAN on their ticket, but to go with Romney whose sole objective running - and losing - in 2012 was to get a massive tax cut for the rich. Never mind the reality that Mitt is opposed to most things - unions, abortion rights, immigration reform - that the Democratic voting base supports. It's like these so-called "liberal elites" - the pundits, the "actively engaged" celebrities, who are pulling in six-figure incomes where the rest of us are struggling around $35k a year to survive - don't give a damn about the millions of primary voters who happily re-nominated their incumbent President for a second go.

So here I was for most of the morning, putting this blog article together to tear Sorkin a new one when by 1:00 PM... everything changed.



I had to go off to one side and rant for a couple hours after that bombshell. I've calmed a little, but I'm still at the LIVID stage.

Livid and angry towards the goddamned Beltway media - especially that godforsaken rag the New York Times - that were beating the drums to get Biden to drop out. Angry at the Right-of-Center Democrats like Joe Manchin kneecapping any party unity that was needed for the upcoming convention this August. Well, congratulations you sons of bitches, you got your scalp.

If there is any good news from this announcement, it's that Biden openly supports his Vice President Kamala Harris to take over the campaign for him. Running now on their administration's legacy of job growth, infrastructure investment, debt forgiveness for tens of thousands of Americans, and financial reforms. Harris in particular has been touring the nation campaigning against the Dobbs ruling and the Republicans who are working to deny women their basic rights (not just abortion but their right to divorce, their right to work, their right to get education, their right to live).

But those buzzards are still circling. The likes of David Axelrod are complaining that Harris didn't get "vetted" by the primaries - ignoring that she was part of Biden's ticket at the time, and that she's got years of experience in the Executive branch already - and are demanding "an open convention" where the goddamned special interest factions - backed by billionaires that had been funding this anti-Biden effort - will try their best to return to the "smoke-filled backrooms" of power brokering to force an unpalatable pro-business / anti-tax candidate on the Democratic base.

At a moment when the Democratic Party needs to unite behind a standard bearer - be it Biden or be it Harris - we still have these corrupted factions still looking to sabotage it all and let the likes of trump and his Republican hacks steal their way back into the White House.

Goddamn them.

This is an open call to every Democratic and Independent voter I know. Ignore the haters. Focus on what matters. The Democratic Party is the one thing standing for our American democrat-republic institutions and way of life. We got 81 million people to vote for Biden and Harris in 2020 and we can do that again for Harris and whomever she picks to stand as her Vice President. 

We need to stand for women's rights, we need to stand for the good jobs at good wages Biden and the Democrats have brought to us, we need to stand for a future where the uber-rich oligarchs don't decide our fates, we do.

For the LOVE OF GOD AND COUNTRY, do NOT vote for that convicted felon and sex offender donald trump. Do NOT vote for the Republican Party that has surrendered to his greed and his Id.

Elections always matter. Get the vote out for Harris and the Democratic Party across every seat across every county across every state. 

Do not let Joe Biden down, people. He's counting on US to secure his administration's legacy.

Update: What, NOW Sorkin regrets his bullshit?!?! /rage

Tuesday, June 11, 2024

One Sentence Summary on the Significance of Hunter Biden's Guilty Verdict As It Relates to the 2024 Presidential Election

Hunter Biden is not on the national ballot for the Presidency of the United States, unlike donald trump; to where the entire Republican Party still has to justify why they are supporting a convicted felon and confirmed sex offender for the highest office in the land. 

Sunday, June 02, 2024

The Tick Tock of a Justice Clock

So with donald trump now convicted on 34 felonies, what happens next?

The simplest answer is that the legal system in New York moves forward on the punishment phase (via Michael R. Sisak, Jill Colvin, Michelle L. Price, and Alanna Durkin Richer at AP News):

The big question now is whether Trump could go to prison. The answer is uncertain. Judge Juan M. Merchan set sentencing for July 11, just days before Republicans are formally set to nominate Trump for president.

The charge of falsifying business records is a Class E felony in New York, the lowest tier of felony charges in the state. It is punishable by up to four years in prison, though the punishment would ultimately be up to the judge, and there’s no guarantee he would give Trump time behind bars. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg declined to say whether prosecutors would seek prison time.

It’s unclear to what extent the judge may factor in the political and logistical complexities of jailing a former president who is running to reclaim the White House. Other punishments could include a fine or probation. And it’s possible the judge would allow Trump to avoid serving any punishment until after he exhausts his appeals...

If there's any factor that should determine if trump faces time in jail is his own behavior before, during, and after the trial. The level of contempt trump displayed throughout led to Judge Merchan leveling fines and threatening him with sitting in a jail cell. Considering how trump continues to attack the entire proceeding as a rigged witch hunt, letting trump off with simple fines or probation would be a joke. While maxxing out the jail time to four years (48 months) would seem excessive for - believe it or not - a first-time felon like trump, settling on a set of months to make it hurt for him - say, 34 months one for each Guilty count - would be IMHO a fair punishment.

trump - and his MAGA voting base - of course would freak out. But we kinda knew that going in.

The ramifications of the guilty verdict are still roiling the political arena:

The conviction doesn’t bar Trump from continuing his campaign or becoming president. And he can still vote for himself in his home state of Florida as long as he stays out of prison in New York state.

Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump, who serves as co-chair of the Republican National Committee, said in a Fox News Channel interview on Thursday that Trump would do virtual rallies and campaign events if he’s convicted and sentenced to home confinement.

In a deeply divided America, it’s unclear whether Trump’s once-unimaginable criminal conviction will have any impact at all on the election...

In the short term, at least, there were immediate signs that the guilty verdict was helping to unify the Republican Party’s disparate factions as GOP officials across the political spectrum rallied behind their embattled presumptive presidential nominee and his campaign reported a flood of fundraising dollars within hours of the verdict.

There has been some polling conducted on the prospect of a guilty verdict, although such hypothetical scenarios are notoriously difficult to predict. A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll found that only 4% of Trump’s supporters said they would withdraw their backing if he’s convicted of a felony, though another 16% said they would reconsider it...

What would help, if pollsters interviewed Democratic-leaning voters to see how many will vote for Biden to ensure a convicted felon never gets (back) into the White House. /headdesk

We are entering uncharted waters in our nation's history. While we've had convicted felons run for the presidency - Eugene Debs the most well-known - we've never had one at the head of a major party with a guaranteed voter turnout in the millions. When the Founders created the Constitution, they never dreamed that the political elites of that era would allow such a person to run: Their own virtues of personal honor and good faith towards the system blinded them to the possibility a demagogue like trump would ever rise up to break all social norms and civility.

When the political parties formed (and reformed) in the years following, those parties were expected to use a vetting system of nominating only the best - or least corrupt - among them. But trump has subverted all that, bullying and dominating the Republican ranks to where he literally owns the national organization overseeing the party. Whatever is left of the GOP leadership is stuck with kissing trump's ring orange ass to stay in his good graces, turning a blind eye to trump's criminality and going along with trump's twisted accusations of a "rigged" trial.

Whatever issues are still up for debate - protecting abortion rights, stopping the bloodshed in Gaza, supporting Ukraine against Russia, defending our educational system, resolving the immigration crisis - this is a serious matter to consider: We now have a convicted felon as the presidential nominee for the Republican Party, with no sign trump will step aside or get pushed aside for a more honorable candidate. There is no "both sides are bad" argument here. For all of the Republican Party's efforts to paint President Biden as a corrupt figure, they've never found any evidence of that: The best they've done is bring charges to his son Hunter, but never found any financial ties between them.

This is now down to two Presidential candidates. trump is a convicted felon with an established history of criminal behavior - trump's company criminally guilty, trump found liable for sexual assault, trump found liable for tax evasion and fraud to the tune of $364 million, trump's non-profit forced to shut down for fraud - proven in court. Biden is not a felon.

This ought to be an easy choice, America. Don't fucking vote for the felon.


Sunday, February 25, 2024

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Primary Checklist

Okay, just to help voters keep track of which Presidential candidate has certain issues and concerns as we head into the thick of the 2024 Primary Season:


Joe Biden

Donald Trump

Is Old

a

a

Is Showing Signs of
Memory Issues

a

a

Is Still Screaming about
"Stolen Votes" from 2020


a

Is Threatening to quit NATO


a

Is Demanding Republicans in Congress Block Any Aid to Ukraine In Its War Against Russia


a

Is Gloating about
ending Roe V Wade


a

Found Liable of Sexual Assault in a Court of Law To the Tune of $88 Million and Counting


a

Found Liable of Acts of Business Fraud To the Tune of $450 Million Plus Interest


a

Refuses to Let Congress
Pass a Border Reform Bill
to Keep His Opponent From Benefiting Politically


a

Promoting an Ugly-Ass Sneaker for $499.00 (when it probably costs $49.00 in real life)


a

Is Facing Criminal Trial in New York on 34 Counts for
"Election Interference" and Filing False Documents this March 2024


a

Is Facing Criminal Trial in DC on Four Felony Counts Concerning January 6th 2021 Riots as Soon as The Supreme Court Considers an Appeal Over Absolute Presidential Immunity


a

Is Facing Criminal Trial in
South Florida on Multiple Counts of Classified Documents Mishandling, Probably by
May 2024


a

Is Facing Criminal Trial in Georgia on Multiple Counts of Election Interference and Racketeering Related to a Fake Electors Scheme, TBD


a

Is Winning the 2024
Party Primaries with
90 Percent of the Vote

a


Is Getting Told By National Media Pundits to "Step Aside"
or Quit Campaigning
to Make Room for the Pundit's Preferred Candidate (TBD)
for the "Good of the Party"
and the United States

a


 I'm not WRONG, am I?

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Election Night 2020: I'M PERFECTLY CALM

JUST LOOK AT HOW STEADY MY HANDS ARE.


I AM TOTALLY CALM HERE.


I know it's going to be a long night and there's obviously going to be a few bad steps here and there and some states may not vote the way I'm praying to God they should vote but you know it's a free country and and and and um JESUS FCKING CHRIST AMERICA STOP VOTING FOR THAT SHITGIBBON! 

VOTE BIDEN! VOTE BLUE! VOTE FOR A BLUE SENATE! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD WILL YOU BE SANE FOR LIKE ONE ELECTION DAY FOR THE SAKE OF ALL HUMANITY!


Okay, I'm eating ice cream now and will try to avoid watching the poll results - the skewed, too-early-to-call-it poll results that the media loves to shove down our throats until we're begging them to stop.

I'll update when I can.

HOPE YOU VOTED. HOPE YOU VOTED FOR BIDEN AND SANITY.

Update 8:47 PM. Fuck. They already called Florida?FUCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK.

Update 10:35 PM. I will never understand it. I mean, I *know* we are surrounded by an army of assholes, but you would think that after trump's epic failures of leadership - letting Puerto Rico fall apart, his tariff war follies, the evil of his family separations at the border, the financial corruption, and this year alone allowing a pandemic to rampage across our country... we still have too many Americans buying trump's bullshit and voting for him. His pandering to their most sadistic hates and their most ill-informed fears, and he's still... God. This is insane...

trump's supposed to be losing the suburbs what the hell is happening...?

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Florida 2020 General Election Ballot: Summon the Blue Wave, Please

Time again, another Presidential election cycle here in Florida with EARLY VOTING STARTING MONDAY OCTOBER 19, so I want to take a moment to post how the ballot looks - at least where I am in Polk County, here's a sample ballot - and offer suggestions on what to consider when you cast your vote.

(dramatic beat)

Okay, for anybody who's been following this blog for the last eight twelve years, you probably know that my overall suggestion is FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DO NOT VOTE REPUBLICAN.

It's not just me. There are several prominent conservative figures who have recoiled from the monstrosity their own party has become and they're pretty much saying the same thing. This Republican Party will not reform itself or move away from its madness until they are utterly humiliated and driven out of power. (another beat) For the next fifty years.

The only way this happens is if enough Americans not only fully Progressive but also Center-Left and Independent show up to vote in unity against the corruption that the modern Republicans - not just trump but everyone from Mitch McConnell all down - are openly planning to commit.

So here's my bit, trying to educate my fellow Floridians on what to look for.

President

What part of "trump IS A VULGAR SUBHUMAN BULLYING SH-TGIBBON" have you missed on my blog?

I could go into 500 different reasons why you should NOT vote for trump/Pence in any way, shape or form. I can go into at least 5 reasons to vote FOR Biden/Harris. 1) Biden is a Passive-Positive Character in the Taft vein, 2) Biden will work towards a Big Tent party for Democrats of all stripes to join in for effective ideological gains, 3) Biden will restore the social safety net that the Republicans have been hacking at with fireaxes the last 20 years, 4) Biden will put on his Cabinet people who are dedicated to effective governance and will repair the damage done by trump's corrupt regime, 5) Biden will not turn every fcking day into an anxiety-riddled, Twitter-driven, Hellish STRESS TEST.

So in short: FOR THE LOVE OF GOD VOTE BIDEN/HARRIS

Congress

Florida does not have any Senate races this cycle, so it's all down to the House seats - all 27 of them - and with any luck the Democratic voter turnout will flip at least 14 of them Blue so that in case there's a Delegation vote in the House to resolve a compromised Electoral College result the vote will go for Biden.

In my case, I'm in the 17th District, covering south Polk County and much of the south inland counties, which are lightly populated and heavily conservative. Port Charlotte (Charlotte County) is kind of the only other major population center in the district, and I'm not familiar with the area but given how much of its population buildup was in the late 1990s with a lot of conservative shifting, I don't have my hopes up.

Yeah. I live in the middle of trump Country. Every other oversized Coal Roller truck has the worst taste in bumper stickers. And yet, I WILL DEFY YOU, STARS. I am calling for everyone in District 17 to vote for Allen Ellison. 

I am calling on everybody I know from Pinellas County to Pasco to Alachua to Broward to Duval even: BLUE WAVE, peeps. 

State Legislature

There's 120 State House seats up for vote, so that's about 120 seats we NEED to flip BLUE, Florida. It's only 61 seats to control the House (okay Republicans have a 71-to-46 advantage (3 vacancies), but all we need is to gain 12 seats on the 46 held along with filling those three vacancies...). 

Okay, in Polk County, that's Districts 39 (Dem Chris Cause), 40 (Dem Jan Barrow), 41 (Dem Jared West), and 42 (Dem Barbara Ann Cady) up for consideration. I'm in District 56, so I'm putting a vote in for James Davis.

The State Senate goes in groups, they are doing odd-number Senate districts this cycle and somehow Polk County does not carry any part of them (I am in District 26, so...). I may not have a direct vote for any of the 40 Senators, but I do call on the voters who ARE voting in the odd-numbered districts to VOTE BLUE WAVE. It's a 23-to-17 Republican control of the Senate, so if the Democrats can hold their 17 seats and flip 4, that would make it 21-to-19 in favor of Democrats... Just gotta flip ONE of the legislative houses, and then we'll see DeSantis held accountable for his mishandling of the pandemic...  

County Commissioner

The county seats go in rotations, so this year it's just District 3 up for a vote and that's Democrat Bob Doyel we need to support.

State Supreme Court / District Court Retention

We have a system in place where judges are appointed but then subject to voter approval to retain. In 2020, there is currently one person up for the State Supreme Court, Carlos Muniz. To sum him up: He was on trump's short list to replace Ginsburg's seat this month. Yeah. That's all you need to know. If you want more, he worked under Pam Bondi. Uh-uh. I don't trust his credentials one bit. VOTE NO and remove him.

The Appellate Court votes to retain are spread out, so here in Polk County (2nd Court District) we've got Drew Atkinson, Morris Silberman, Daniel Sleet, and Andrea Teves Smith to consider. At the moment I can't find anything on their biographies so I can't say who brought them to the table. For now, I'll trust to the better natures of our angels and VOTE YES to retain.

School Board

There doesn't look to be any listed this cycle. Hmm.

Lake Region Lakes Management

There's a race between John Lewis and Steve Enzor, but not much information on them. Going by Facebook pages, Enzor seems to have the background working with the city of Winter Haven and previous water management commission work, while Lewis shows more engagement with the community but I'm not sure what his full bio is. I leave it to you, Lake Region, if you know which is the better candidate.  

State Amendments

I've made my views on the State Amendments earlier, and while I'm set on certain ones I am willing to admit I may be wrong on my earlier opinions. I've been getting more pushback against the Open (Jungle) Primaries and the peeps chatting me on it are making valid points. Thing is, as a NPA voter, I still feel the need to support making the Primaries open to all and to encourage more voter turnout. If you want to vote NO against that, you're free to (I will vote YES because I think the Jungle Primaries are manageable and I want the NPA voters like myself to have more say in these votes). 

To repeat, I am NO on 1 (Citizenship requirement to vote, which is ALREADY a requirement), YES on 2 (Minimum Wage), YES on 3 (Open Primary), NO on 4 (Forced Second Ballot Referenda), NO on 5 (More tax exemption) and YES on 6 (Tax exemption carryover to widows of military veterans, I know this could be a NO vote but it's family-related).

Polk County Referendums and Charter Amendments

There's also County matters to vote on, and what we got are:

Referendum One: Extension of Limited Property Tax Exemptions for Businesses Creating New Jobs

Shall the board of county commissioners of this county be reauthorized to grant, pursuant to s. 3, Art. VII of the State Constitution, limited property tax exemptions, for a limited time, to new businesses and expansions of existing businesses that create new full‐time jobs in the county? The time period for such reauthorization would commence November 6, 2022 and expire on November 5, 2032.

This sounds like a good idea, don't it? Supporting our Jobs Creators in the county. Thing is, how well is this exemption enforced? How are we guaranteed that our major employers in-county are fulfilling these obligations? In the short term, there's no guarantee of job creating while a pandemic is underway, and in the long term, businesses that need to hire full-time are going to hire full-time anyway. There doesn't need to be a tax credit to encourage them. I'd vote NO.

Charter Amendment One: Increasing Time Period Between Charter Review Commissions from 8 Years to 12 Years

Kind of what it says on the label. The argument in favor of this goes "We need to reduce expenses, and the Charter Review Commission doesn't need to meet THAT often." That may sound reasonable, but it runs the risk of the County facing administrative or committee crises that may flare up regarding the county charter during that longer time period. This doesn't feel like a smart thing to do. I'd vote NO.

Charter Amendment Two: Expense Reduction of the Efficiency Commission

The plot here is about cutting expenses for Polk County by deleting Articles 8.6 through 8.6.4 in their entirety of the County Charter, referring to the Polk County Efficiency Commission. You don't know what that would entail unless you actually READ Articles 8.6 through 8.6.4, so here goes (link goes to Charter PDF):

8.6 Polk County Efficiency Commission

Not later than January 31, 2005 and of every eighth year thereafter, there shall be appointed a Polk County Efficiency Commission...

Okay, what Charter Amendment 2 is doing is PURGING the Efficiency Commission altogether. They're cutting off an arm of the county government here. I am not entirely sure what the commission does, but since the title involves "Efficiency" I'd expect them to be going through the code of county ordinances weeding out overlapping rules, any outdated rules, and other stuff. Which may actually make things more affordable for the businesses and residents restricted by guidelines based in say 1897 but useless in 2020.

Thing is, it does not look like the county will replace this Efficiency Commission with anything more cost-friendly that would still do the same job. Without that, I'm worried the lack of an efficiency oversight committee would let the county commissioners reinstate unwieldly stuff. I'd vote NO. 

And just for those of you still following me for the Pasco County Mosquito Control Board election (Yeah, Mom reminded me by email this Monday), there's two seats (One and Three) up for vote for 2020:

Mosquito Control, Seat 1

Randy Evans (incumbent)
Seth Weightman 

Mosquito Control, Seat 3

James E. Bailey
Shanon R. Holm
Gary W. (Buck) Joiner (incumbent)

In previous years, I had little information to go by as the seats are too minor for the local papers to even name the candidates, but I think I found a site (Vote411 Voter Guide) that tries to cover the local stuff, so I've got the links above set to that site. Weightman didn't provide any info, so he's a blank and I can't recommend. The Seat 3 candidates at least provided responses, but Holm is the only one to check YES on the question about supporting sustainable energy and recognizing the Climate Change issues. So I'd suggest going with Holm if he's on your ballot. These are supposed to be non-partisan seats, so I won't consider a partisan stance on (OH FCK IT, VOTE BLUE IF YOU KNOW IT).

Okay. That's all I got for the Florida balloting. The Early Voting is Monday. Get to it.

#VoteBlue2020 #VoteBidenHarris 


Saturday, August 17, 2019

The Bad And the Good Heading Into the 2020 Elections (w/Update)

(Update: many thanks again to Batocchio for linking this site to Crooks and Liars' Mike's Blog Roundup! Please stay and enjoy the dip! (checks fridge) Wait, the dip isn't ready y... NO DON'T GO! Um, uh, maybe if I plugged in my Xbox and share my violent video games...? No? Dammit, where's the pizza I ordered...)

As the primaries heat up and as trump debases our nation further, I am dismayed and heartened by certain thoughts:

trump remains a remarkably unpopular President Loser of the Popular Vote. Ed Kilgore at New York magazine pointed out:

Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. ...And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. (Note: the narrow wins in PA, MI, and WI are where the experts think trump pulled off the Electoral upset) And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate...

That seems like good news, but then the cynic in me remembers that polling, for all the numbers behind it, is still an inexact science. A lot of factors still determine who wins in November, and Kilgore considers most of them:

If you credit these polls at all, Trump’s reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.

What Kilgore is referring to in 4) is the likely interference of Russian meddling, especially considering how Mitch McConnell is refusing to lift a finger to pass election security measures. And don't forget the Republicans' own efforts to suppress voters they know won't vote GOP.

But if the voter turnout still achieves maximum efforts...

The hope is that the best way to counter Republicans' efforts to cheat with the elections is to overwhelm their ability to fudge the numbers. They can cheat, but only to a point. If the polling (which Republicans can't entirely control) is saying their boy trump is ten percent under the Democratic candidate, and the margin of error in the polling is about four percent... if trump ends up winning that state by one percent - when he should have been losing by six at best - well outside of that margin, the stink of it will be impossible to hide. So if the Republicans want to cheat they have to do it in small pieces, to better hide the evidence of it. If only 100,000 voters show up which is often just the extremists, they could well hide their efforts and eke out a win... But if 1,000,000 show up and most of them know damn well who they're all voting for, it gets harder to pull that off...

I still think of the likelihood of voter turnout mimicking the numbers of 2018, when the midterms exceeded the norms and we saw about an eight percent jump in turnout. If there's a similar jump - with similar percentages of Democratic-over-Republican voting - there's a good chance the Electoral College will flip away from trump. Both Kilgore and Nancy LeTourneau at Washington Monthly referred to a Tweeted projected map using the 270towin app which showed this:

From pundit Matt Rogers 


To LeTourneau, these numbers show a trend that highlights trump's overall unpopularity:

I can’t think of an example in my lifetime where a sitting president went into re-election in worse shape than Donald Trump... Trump isn’t merely an overgrown toddler, he’s also terribly unpopular with most Americans. As we’ve seen, he’s bleeding support all over the country, including among lifelong Republicans in Texas. It is also important to keep in mind that it isn’t just that so many Americans disapprove of Trump. As Jeet Heer suggested, “what is more striking is the measure of intensity, which shows that those who dislike Trump do so with a passion.” Doing as Roberts suggests would send a “we hear you” message to all of those people who find Trump’s behavior deplorable...

There's a reason why Rogers tweets a map that shows even Texas, Georgia and UTAH flipping away from trump. The Great Orange Shitgibbon has done nothing to appeal to the moderate voters who oppose his actions on immigration, tariffs, and tax cuts. This is a man who has YET to crack the 50 percent approval ratings on the majority of professional polling services out there (only the ones that lean hard Conservative had him getting over that hump). He's done nothing like the previous Presidents have done - even Dubya - to present himself as a bipartisan incumbent who deserves a second term. He's got more people angry at him during the first term than I ever saw under Carter (who suffered from poor decisions and middling leadership) or Bush the Elder (who suffered re-election during a recession and on the cusp of a Far Right Culture War he couldn't lead).

And yet... and yet... I still have intense anxiety about the sonofabitch cheating just enough to steal a second term.

There's still a lot of time between now and November 2020 for things to get bad one way or another. For every sign of something that could hurt trump electorally - like the oncoming recession - there's always the reality that most of the voters who supported him in 2016 are likely to do so again. They're not driven by practical realities, or their own hardships - tariffs killing off businesses farms and jobs for example - under trump's reign. As Rude Pundit noted back in 2014, the Republican voting base are compelled to vote against the damn dirty hippies in spite of their own needs.

It's why I don't believe that tweeted map just yet. Why I fear Utah - filled with hard conservative Mormons - will NOT vote Democratic blue when the time comes. Why Texas and Georgia can be hopeful possibilities but GODDAMN do the Democrats need to get the VOTE OUT in those states.

And I'd love to think my home state of Florida will come back to their damn senses and vote like they did for Obama in 2008 and 2012... but I am residing in such a deep Red county that I can't help but despair...

These early polling and analyses are helping me cope. But GODDAMN, Americans, you NEED to show up to vote in 2020 and you NEED to vote Democratic across the board.

trump is already campaigning on a racist, hateful, bloody platform. How bad do you think it'll get before we even get to 2020 anyway?



Sunday, June 23, 2019

Czechs Know What To Do With Corrupt Fraudsters In Their Government

This crazy thing has been happening in Europe over the last few months, and it's gone big (via Lenka Ponikelska  and Peter Laca at Bloomberg):

Czechs took to the streets in the biggest protests since the fall of communism, demanding that billionaire Prime Minister Andrej Babis resign over allegations of conflict of interest and a criminal fraud case involving European Union funds.
Organizers said about 250,000 people rallied against the minority government on Sunday in Prague’s Letna park, scene of the largest rallies that toppled communist rule 30 years ago. It was a culmination of two months of protests against Babis, who has denounced the accusations as an attempt by his opponents to derail his political career. Police estimated the crowd at 200,000.
The protesters, many of whom traveled from the far-flung reaches of the central European country, waved EU and Czech flags and banners reading “Resign.” Public transportation strained under the pressure of people arriving to the site near the Prague castle. Student activists organizing the rallies say the premier is unfit to stay in the office because of the mounting scandals.
“We can’t accept a prime minister who’s facing a criminal investigation and is in such a fundamental conflict of interest,” Benjamin Roll, one of the organizers, told the crowd. “We’ve had enough.”
Babis is facing potential criminal charges over allegations that a company he once owned illegally obtained about $2 million worth of EU aid last decade. Also, a preliminary report from the European Commission found Babis in conflict of interest because, despite having put his agriculture, media and chemical business empire in trusts, he has influence over EU funds they may receive...

Sound a little familiar, America? Yeah, this is a lot like trump... and also the likes of other rich businessmen who turned to politics to expand their corruption.

We've allowed ourselves to get blinded by the media mythologizing of the genius CEOs, the brilliant lies of deregulation and tax cuts, and allowed far too many con artists into political offices they have no right serving.

But there is a way to fight back against this corruption, when it's all said and done.

You can stand up - like they're doing in Prague, and what they're doing in Istanbul as well - and say "No."

You can recognize the crooks - right now, that's Republicans with their Godawful tax giveaway to their rich buddies - for what they do, what they take from us, and tell them "No more."

You can vote them out of office. That's all it takes. Show up at the ballot, and do your damnedest to make sure your vote counts, and that the bastards are all gone by the end of the day.

Stand up, America. They're doing it across the globe now, against the corrupt powers in high places, and we need to stand up as well.

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Give Me a Minute Here to Rant And Panic about trump... AGAIN

Just to get this bit out of the way (from the Daily Beast):

President Trump on Saturday predicted a stock market crash “the likes of which has not been seen before” if he doesn’t win re-election in 2020. “The Trump Economy is setting records, and has a long way up to go,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “However, if anyone but me takes over in 2020 (I know the competition very well), there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before! KEEP AMERICA GREAT.” The president’s comments came shortly after he hyped up the upcoming launch of his campaign at a Florida rally on Tuesday. Trump has repeatedly claimed that the success of the U.S. stock market depends on him remaining in the White House, though data from Macrotrends suggests the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been about average under him compared to its performance under former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, according to Bloomberg.

Scaremongering motherfucker. The stock markets keep crashing every time trump launches another reckless tariff. The Dow is gonna crash if trump stays in the White House.

Does the Shitgibbon believe that if he's kicked out and a Democrat comes in, every billionaire and investment firm is going to have a conniption and commit financial suicide? HELL NO. They didn't do that when Clinton entered office in 1993 and the markets were already coping with their self-inflicted Great Recession by 2009 when Obama took the oath.

That's because the REAL BILLIONAIRES aren't that petty. Even if a Warren or Sanders wins in 2020, much of Wall Street knows they've got enough going on to keep themselves racking up more millions. Anything a Democratic President can whip up towards regulating their industry, they can delay in the courts long enough to figure out new loopholes.

This is just trump bluffing and bullying... AGAIN.

Because the 2020 campaigning is starting up... AGAIN.

And the internal polling numbers are not favoring trump... AGAIN (Via Raw Story's Matt Chapman):

On Saturday, The Nation writer John Nichols told MSNBC that President Donald Trump’s new internal polls showing him losing key states are “devastating” — and show why his path to re-election may be slipping out of his grasp.
“I would just emphasize these polls are more than a wake-up call. They’re pretty devastating numbers,” said Nichols. “We can get excited about a close race in Texas or even some good numbers out of Florida. But remember that for Donald Trump, the key is the Great Lakes states.”
“What these internal polls tell us parallels what we’re seeing from publicly done polling in those regions,” said Nichols. “Two things very significant. Number one, there is an energized Democratic base, more energized, it appears, than 2016. And additionally one subset of this that’s a really big deal, major issue for Trump, and that is that in the rural areas where Democrats severely underperformed in 2016, it’s what we are seeing in the public polls and I suspect top line numbers from what we’re seeing in other places suggest we’re seeing rural areas begin to tick back up for Democrats going to that 40 percent number.”

The Blue Wave of 2018 - Democrats voting in sheer anger over the travesty of 2016's results - shows no sign of abating. Voter projections suggest the biggest turnout in 40 years, with about two-thirds of registered voters (67 percent) showing up at the ballot box. (Psst, larger voter turnout favors Dems)

Combine this with the consistent negative polling trump has generated - never cracking 50 percent popularity, mostly hovering above 40 percent like clinging to a lifeline - combined with the reality that the top Democratic candidates are more likable than Hillary - dammit, you haters - and there's a solid chance that trump will be another One-Termer like Carter and Bush the Lesser.

NOTE: I did write in 2017 about the only polling number that mattered was the insanely - and artificially - high positive numbers trump was getting from the GOP voters. But that was over whether or not the rest of the Republican leadership would rein in or punish trump for his follies. Now we're going into an election cycle, where everybody - especially Independent voters who've soured on trump's rule - is in play.

This sort of good news HAS to be tempered by certain realities: 1) Polling is still not an exact science, 2) This doesn't reflect the realities of GOP Voter Suppression efforts, 3) Putin and Russia are primed to hack the 2020 Elections... AGAIN, 4) Never underestimate the Democratic Party's ability to rend itself over the Far Left's obsession with perfection (yes I am looking at you again, BernieBros) 5) The Electoral College is still fucking broken.

Let's just say that in spite of all the bad possibilities, trump loses in 2020. That trump still gets at best the 42 percent of voters from 2016, while the popular Democrat - Biden, or Sanders, or Harris (squee), or Warren (squee) - gets close to 50 percent. That 8 percent difference in voters HAS to translate into winning battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that Hillary lost (in some cases by less than .01 of the votes).

I mean, here's a 2020 map from 270towin.com that has the Democratic candidate winning most of the closest-contested states:

What 2016 should have been...

If we want to include the states where trump eked out wins within 2 to 5 percent, have them flip to the Democrats, the map might look like this:

I grant the likelihood of other close states like Missouri staying Red, I just want to feel better
about Florida flipping back to Blue...
At the furthest extreme, where it's a Hell Yes Blowout with Democrats winning as many states as possible, the map will look like this:


And no, I'm not going to go crazy about thinking EVERY state will flip Blue. This isn't 1984 or 1972 or 1936 where a combination of factors led to such Electoral blowouts. We're too partisan in geographic areas now. What that third map reflects is the most likely result of both the oncoming demographic shifts that terrify the Republicans into voter suppression AND the growing evidence that trump is scaring off the suburban voters. One or two of these states might be wrong - you could trade Georgia perhaps with Missouri, Kansas may still be tribalistic in supporting the GOP, stuff like that - but there's a legitimate trend for Texas and Georgia slipping away, and it's only a matter of time (Republican voters are older and dying, Democratic voters are younger and registering to vote) with the possibility trump is accelerating the demographic shifts.

So, in all three scenarios, how do you think trump will react?

We already know how he was going to react in 2016 if he had lost: He was openly campaigning he would decry the results, claim Hillary cheated, refuse to concede.

In 2020, trump would be worse.

It wouldn't matter if the elections were close or a blowout, trump would never accept it because trump can never admit losing. He'll do everything before - like arresting candidates, disrupting Democratic campaigns, straight up attacks - and after the election - bullying the states into recounting ballots to HIS satisfaction, more arrests, more attacks - to get the results he wants.

What happens then depends mostly on the rest of the Republican Party leadership (and any Red state GOP leaders who are able to do the dirty work). The guys like Mitch McConnell, who by the by is facing re-election in 2020. If they win, they can afford to let trump wither on the vine, because McConnell will retain his Senate powers (it may be unlikely the Republicans retake the House, but if they do... Gods help us) and be free of the headache trump has been. If they lose, they have nothing else to lose but join in his fight to overthrow the voters' wishes.

Even if the unlikely happens - every state votes Democratic, every Electoral College vote goes Blue - trump and the Republicans will never accept it. A combination of denial - they genuinely believe they represent the majority when in fact they're not - and lust for power - the Republicans fear a dominant Democratic government and worry they can't keep obstructing forever.

It's vital that every American vote. It's important that enough Americans vote AGAINST the corruption of the Republican Party and the disaster that is trump.

But don't think this will be a clean fight. The Republicans have been mudslinging for decades now, dragged everything into the mudpit, and willing to commit even worse sins in order to seize power that has never been theirs.

trump is threatening to make this 2020 Election a bloody affair. THAT'S probably the most honest thing he ever says.

Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Seven Days Until November 8 2016

To the Old Gods and the New, help us.

I'm still nervous about how this is all going to end up.

The media keeps telling me Trump's polling numbers are going up.

GOD NO. WHY?

It should never have been this close. Hell, Obama vs. Romney should never have been that close, and yet it was and I was nervous all the way up to Election Day itself.

There seems to be good news about the Early Voting, in that turnout among most voting groups are up - except for Black voters in certain states like North Carolina, gee how COULD THAT have happened? /sarcasm - and I'd like to think that higher turnout favors Democrats.

Still, why the HELL is Trump even polling above 30 percent now? After all this time, all this yelling and screaming about how wrong, how corrupt, how inept he is... there's still that many people buying into his con game?

The madness of 2016 will never make sense. Not in a hundred years, not in ten years.

If any of us survive that long if Trump wins.

GODS HELP US.

Get the vote out if you got Early Voting. Get your absentee ballot in if you got vote-by-mail.

Vote for sanity and a smoothly-working government. That means DO NOT VOTE FOR REPUBLICANS who will break it all and obstruct everything out of sheer spite.

Please. PLEASE.

Monday, October 31, 2016

Hey You Wanna See Something REALLY SCARY?

Greg Sargent wants to
terrify
you
with
THIS

AAAAAAAAIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

This is why we need to get the vote out, America, in large consistent impossible-to-ignore numbers that would guarantee a solid Democratic party victory for Hillary and for control of BOTH Houses of Congress.

Where we get a map that looks like this for Hillary:

And we get a map that looks like this for the Senate:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

And then maybe Election Day won't be as horrifying as Halloween.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Things To Do For Tonight's Final Presidential Debate for 2016

Tonight is the last televised debate between Hillary and "Screw You Guys I'm Going Home" Trump.

Here are your options for tonight's viewing:

1) Find a writers' group meeting to attend tonight and get prepped for your upcoming NaNoWriMo writing effort for November.

2) There's playoff baseball on tonight, I think.

3) Are hairstyle salons open at 9:00 PM EST?

4) Find a pro-Hillary debate watch party in your area and bring enough booze to endure the Trump-shitshow but not enough to prevent you from safely driving home. Either that or make sure there's a designated driver to come by after the debate to pick you up. I doubt anybody at the party is going to want to stay sober watching that draft-dodging tax-dodging tiny-fingered Cheeto-faced ferret-wearing shitgibbon.

5) You might wanna start shopping at the local CostCo for your winter survival supplies and tonight might as well be the time to do it.

6) Read a book. I've got some lovely books you can purchase and download to your Kindle... (ow stop hitting me)

7) Watch sober, and then get on your knees and pray. BEG FORGIVENESS FROM THE ALMIGHTY that we as a nation were fools to let Trump anywhere near the Presidency and BEG BEG BEG a thousand times for the Good Lord to show Mercy upon us by gifting enough voters with the wisdom to NOT VOTE TRUMP when their time in the ballot booth comes.

7a) And for the Love of God don't vote Republican, period.

Keep your head down and survive, America. We're going to get hit by the eye of this Trumpstorm...


Wednesday, October 12, 2016

They Hit That Iceberg Three Months Ago. This Is Where the RNC Trumptanic Is Breaking In Half

I wrote this back in March:

On the other hand, this dynamic clearly can no longer exist. The people in control of the Republican Party - the financial donors, the seasoned consultants, the elected veterans of too many Congressional terms - are no longer in sync with their actual voting base of low-education poor White Males. It turns out all the fearmongering and Establishment-bashing the party elites kept telling their followers via the Far Right news channels and websites made those followers fear and hate their own self-entitled party bosses. It's all leading up to the near certainty of a thin-skinned, narcissistic con artist pitching the basest form of race-baiting and immigrant-bashing by the name of Trump winning enough delegates this week to clinch a commanding lead for the Republican nomination for President.
This is the kind of personal betrayal in a relationship that ends up with both sides in tears...
All said and done though, I doubt the GOP really blows apart. Neither side of this potential break-up will last long outside of the existing organizational charts...

Well, color me optimistic.

Donald Trump declared war on the Republican establishment Tuesday, lashing out at House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (Wis.), Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and other GOP elected officials as his supporters geared up to join the fight amid extraordinary turmoil within the party just four weeks before Election Day.
One day after Ryan announced he would no longer campaign on Trump’s behalf, the GOP nominee said as part of a barrage of tweets that the top-ranking Republican is “weak and ineffective” and is providing “zero support” for his candidacy. Trump also declared that “the shackles have been taken off” him, liberating him to “fight for America the way I want to...”
...But (the Republican leadership) are suddenly dealing with another problem: an impulsive and bellicose businessman with an army of loyal supporters willing to exact retribution against elected officials they feel have abandoned them. The rift could have profound ramifications for the Republican Party as a whole, shattering any sense of unity and jeopardizing its chances of holding onto the Senate and even, potentially, the House...

The logic Ryan and the other senior Republicans are working from is trying to isolate themselves from the sinking ship that is Trump's Presidential hopes. The polling after the first two debates have swung wide towards Hillary. The 2005 Hollywood Access tape where Trump boasts of sexually assaulting women and getting away with it for being a rich celebrity was a shocking rebuke to the Republicans' failed attempts to sell themselves as the high-ground moralists.

The public response to that video has been harsh, and among women voters it's been the final straw to dump Trump. Considering women voters make up the largest voting bloc in terms of turnout, the Republicans who take polling serious are trying to find a safe spot to keep their cushy incumbent jobs.

Problem is, in the process Ryan and the others risk alienating their own Republican voting base. Trump's not thrilled about the "betrayal" from Ryan or McCain or any of the others, and Trump's staffers and proxies are all selling the idea of ignoring the down-ballot seats... meaning no votes for the Senate and House candidates up for election.

Given that their gerrymandered districts are skewed in order to exploit their Far Right voting base, having that base refuse to show up and vote for you - which is what Trump is asking them to do - makes such "safe" districts useless to House Republicans. The 55 percent "safe district" advantage over the Democrats' 27 percent disappears and every Red district is in play.

The Ace of Spades - Far Rightist blogger - site is already calling on Ryan's Wisconsin voters to tab the Democratic candidate in revenge.

As long as the Democrats can encourage voter turnout greater than Republican turnout, the odds of winning the Senate alongside Hillary winning the Presidency become much likelier. If Trump voters stick to their anger against ANY Establishment figure that failed in their fealty, the odds of Republicans losing the US House (and a lot more state legislatures) also becomes likelier.

This is where the sinking ship isn't just with Trump at the helm, it's with half the Republican Party queuing for the lifeboats as the good ship RNC Trumptanic snaps in two during the sinking. (Yes, I am totally stealing this meme from The Daily Show)

The only thing that can save the Republican Party entirely is the ingrained partisan nature of their own voters to habitually vote (R) no matter what. Ryan may be counting on that to pull out enough support to eke out their survival and remain as incumbents.

But all it takes is a big enough drop in turnout to kill the incumbents.

And they're already booing Ryan at his rallies. Their own Speaker.

Eric Cantor probably should call Ryan in a few weeks to offer his condolences.

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

In 28 Days, We Vote For Real. In the Meantime, Here's Women Beating the Crap Out of Trump

I think I kept warning people about alienating the largest voting bloc in the nation. But nooooooo, the Republicans just HAD to keep ticking them off.

And now we're seeing the results in the polling. Per the Atlantic:

That’s the bad news for Trump. The worse news is that this poll likely does not include the full impact of a video, published Friday afternoon by The Washington Post, in which Trump boasts about sexually assaulting women. The poll was conducted Wednesday through Sunday, meaning some respondents were interviewed before the video’s release and some afterward. It also does not take into account the second presidential debate, in which Trump’s performance drew widely varying reviews (hint: the pundits liked it, the polled viewers sided with Hillary)...
...Clinton also continues to lead Trump by hefty margins among women, with a 33-point gap separating the candidates. Just 28 percent of likely women voters intend to pull the lever for Trump, a five-point drop from one week ago, while 61 percent plan to vote for Clinton. The lewd video of Trump might lead to an even greater gap in the home stretch toward the election.
Even more remarkably, Trump’s support has collapsed among white women without college degrees. Until recently, they formed Trump’s largest bloc of support. In 2004, they voted for George W. Bush by 19 points; in 2008, they backed John McCain by 17 points; and in 2012, they went with Mitt Romney by 20 points. This poll finds them evenly split between Clinton and Trump, with each drawing 40 percent support.

Here's Sober Nate Silver with his take:

But while we’re in something of a wait-and-see mode, one demographic split caught my eye. That was from a Public Religion Research Institute poll conducted on behalf of The Atlantic. It showed a massive gender split, with Clinton trailing Trump by 11 percentage points among men but leading him by 33 points among women. To put those numbers in perspective, that’s saying Trump would defeat Clinton among men by a margin similar to Dwight D. Eisenhower’s landslide victory over Adlai Stevenson in 1952, while Clinton would defeat Trump among women by a margin similar to … actually, there’s no good comparison, since no candidate has won a presidential election by more than 26 percentage points since the popular vote became a widespread means of voting in 1824. To get to 33 points, you’d have to take the Eisenhower-Stevenson margin and add Lyndon B. Johnson’s 23-point win over Barry Goldwater in 1964 on top of it...

Silver then postulates what the numbers might look like on a map. If you just went with ONLY Women voting this cycle, the map would look like this:



The ONLY Men map goes the other way, obviously, with Trump winning...



So obviously the solution is we need more women voters.

Granted, polling does not equal actual results: You gotta play the game to see who wins. But the data leading up to Game Day is all pointing towards more voters turning away from Trump, and with voting groups turning in great numbers that suggest a nationwide trend. Meaning that most the states - where the Electoral College retains its power - are in play for Hillary, unlike previous election cycles where certain Red States would stay Red due to the Demographics no matter what.

As such, the Electoral College map we're looking at for November 8th should look like this:


And the math is tight in places like Arizona and Georgia (and yes Texas) so this map is still a bit... conservative in predicting the Electoral votes. And there's also the bit about the Mormons finally in open rebellion against Trump's vulgarity. so there's a good chance Utah is a Toss-Up for once.

So barring massive voter suppression efforts - which hopefully doesn't affect enough states, and may not happen on large enough a scale if the Democrats' ground game is ready to roll - or outright refusal to vote, we should be looking at a massive Trump loss for the Presidency. If there's any justice in the world, Trump's sinking ship will be an epic enough collapse that it will drag enough Republican Senators and Congresspersons down with him. Which is looking likelier - even for the gerrymandered House! - by the day.

JUST GET THE DAMN VOTE OUT, DEMOCRATS.

We have 28 days to survive this.

Monday, October 10, 2016

I Had to RageQuit a Debate Watch Party Last Night

The local organized Hillary office was hosting a watch party for the town-hall format debate this Sunday night, so I decided to be sociable.

I brought an apple pie.

Sat around with about 20 people to watch the Internet stream of CNN. Sat solemnly while the debate organizers spent about half an hour explaining the rules and need for decorum. A lot of attention was paid toward showcasing how these debates "demonstrate to the whole world how a democracy operates."

And then they let Trump out to show how he'll tear it all down.

Dear F-CKING God. Trump could not answer the questions straight. He'd go off on tangents, jumping to talking points that didn't relate, and ending up pointing at Hillary going "she's worse, people. She'll wreck all of it, believe me."

The opening question on campaign decorum turned into Trump attacking Obamacare. It went downhill from there.

And he lied, sonofabitch did Trump lie during this town hall. He couldn't even keep the number of "deleted e-mails" straight.

When it got to the part where Trump went off on his taxes "Oh I pay millions in taxes" I was thisclose to dropping every F-bomb I had and punching out the walls. It was either that or walking out of the watch party in a rage.

So for that, I apologize to my fellow watchers.

It was just... GOD DAMN TRUMP.

Here's the biggest takeaway I got from last night:

If he's elected, Trump is going to jail Hillary. He openly declared this on the debate floor. I think this is a first in all of American History. Granted, we haven't had many years of head-to-head debates - we really started with Nixon vs. JFK in 1960, and didn't make these debates official until 1976 - but I can't recall in my studies ANY other Presidential candidate threatening to arrest his political opponents as a campaign pledge.

That's something dictators do. That's not at all representative of the Democracy Experience we're supposed to be displaying to the world.

Damn Trump. And Damn US if enough of us voters back this con artist into the White House. We're getting every warning red flag possible about the damage Trump can do if he's in power, and he's STILL getting 40 percent support?!

/ragequit

Friday, October 07, 2016

Vulgar

There is no other word to describe this:

Donald Trump bragged in vulgar terms about kissing, groping and trying to have sex with women during a 2005 conversation caught on a hot microphone — saying that “when you’re a star, they let you do it” — according to a video obtained by The Washington Post.
The video captures Trump talking with Billy Bush of “Access Hollywood” on a bus with Access Hollywood written across the side. They were arriving on the set of “Days of Our Lives” to tape a segment about Trump’s upcoming cameo on the soap opera.

It's this bad:

“I’ve gotta use some tic-tacs, just in case I start kissing her,” Trump says.“You know I’m automatically attracted to beautiful -- I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait.”
“And when you’re a star they let you do it,” Trump says. “You can do anything.”
“Whatever you want,” says another voice, apparently Bush’s.
“Grab them by the p-ssy,” Trump says. “You can do anything.”
Trump is basically claiming acts of sexual assault. Any woman he wants.

Another part of the interview is him talking about how he tried this on a married woman he talked into going with him for "furniture shopping". His words:

“I did try and f-ck her. She was married,” Trump says. (Note that Trump had just married his third wife Melania three months before this interview)
Trump continues: “And I moved on her very heavily. In fact, I took her out furniture shopping. She wanted to get some furniture. I said, ‘I’ll show you where they have some nice furniture.’”
“I moved on her like a bitch, but I couldn’t get there. And she was married,” Trump says. “Then all of a sudden I see her, she’s now got the big phony tits and everything. She’s totally changed her look.”

We've known for some time Trump is lewd towards women - the number of stories about women fleeing from him in tears have been out there for decades - but this is in his own words. His own honest-to-God view of women as his objects of lust and acquisition.

He talks in the language of the rapist. Uncaring. Self-absolving. Everything justified because he's a "star" and he can do anything.

How is this abomination of a lifeform even allowed to go out in public to meet people?

I have friends who have endured sexual assaults, unwelcomed advances, moments even in public where guys attack them in variations of what Trump brags about doing (please note: TRUMP IS BRAGGING ABOUT THIS). As a guy who will never have to go through this hell, the best I can do is understand the pain my friends go through every time this shit happens to them, all because there are other guys out there who are sexual predator assholes who don't give a fuck about how women actually feel.

Update: Ezra Klein over at Vox.com pretty much sums up what is wrong with US, with America, allowing this inhuman shitgibbon to even come with 100 miles of being President:

He has done all this in public, and he has done all of it repeatedly, almost gleefully. If we elect him, there will be no excusing our actions to future generations, no pleading ignorance in the face of threat. It was all here. It was all obvious. It will all be visible to our children, and to historians.
Trump told us who he was, showed us who he was, again and again. The test here is not of his decency, but of our own.

What. The. Hell. America.

Any of you think of voting Trump, there is no excuse. None. Not party fidelity. Not your hatred of Hillary or Bill (neither of whom were ever this bad, even Bill despite his own sexual arrogance was more charmer than predator). Not the issues he stands for, which are racist and idiotic on their own terms.

A vote for Trump is a vote for vile vulgarity. It is a vote against every woman who ever lived. It is a vote against every kind and decent thing any American has ever done for others.

Damn you forever if you vote for THAT.

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Florida 2016 General Election Ballot: The Reckoning

Update: by the by, if you try to leave a Comment below there are some rules. 1) Be respectful of other people leaving comments. If you wanna insult ME, fine. I went to Tarpon Springs Middle School, I've heard worse (and in Greek); 2) If you're going to leave insults, be honest and put your name to it. Anybody hiding behind an Anonymous login and trying to sh-t on me or anybody else gets those comments blocked. Have the balls to sign your work, people.

Revision to the Update (10/22): The stat tracker for the blogsite is telling me traffic on this article is coming in from a lot of new places. So to the viewers from China, Germany, France, Brazil, and this small dot in the middle of Central America, I wanna say to you "Hola" and/or "Opa" however that works, oh and uh please buy my books...! (quick, what's Chinese for "ow stop hitting me"?)
P.S. Where's Japan? I'm missing Japan. I got a sh-t ton of readers from Japan back in 2014's ballot article... :(

Addendum to the Revision of the Update (10/27): For Polk County residents only, I missed a half-penny tax Referendum. It's to help fund health care for indigent (poor) residents in the county, which covers a lot of disabled, elderly, and kids. It's a 25-year extension of an existing half-penny tax, so it's not like this will become an additional burden. It's geared towards those who need it the most, and it's not even a full penny on what you're buying anyway. I'd vote YES.

Just to note that we're pretty much a month away from arguably the most important general election our nation has faced since 1932.

So it's about time for the sample ballots for the various election boards - in Florida, that's at the County level - to show up.

Here's the one for where I live in Polk County.

If we go from top to bottom, both sides of the ballot (DON'T FORGET THAT, PEOPLE), we need to vote for:

PRESIDENT

You can argue about the merits of the Third Party choices or even the Write-In blank line, but this all boils down to two choices:

Republican candidate Donald Trump (and running mate Mike Pence) or Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton (and running mate Tim Kaine).

I think I have spelled out on multiple occasions why you SHOULD NOT EVER vote for Trump. I should point out the positive reasons for voting for Hillary - A) she's not Trump, B) she's experienced as a Senator and Secretary of State, C) SHE'S NOT TRUMP, D) many of the "scandals" pinned to her are exaggerated fabrications of a Far Right mudslinging operation that's been in play since 1992(!) that's right 25 years of this shit and her enemies still haven't charged her for any of the crimes she's been accused of which should tell you how fake they are, and E) what part of DEAR JESUS PLEASE DON'T VOTE FOR THAT DAMN CON ARTIST TRUMP are you not getting?

Look, if you think you have valid reasons for voting for Trump, I doubt I will dissuade you. But just remember that you're getting all the bad shit with Trump including the open racism, the open sexism, the outright bad business deals, the lack of empathy, his inability to respect others, his gleeful disdain for our foreign allies, and his utter ignorance. Even one of those bad traits should disqualify him for Pasco Mosquito Control Board, for God's sake.

Against all of that, whatever sins you think of Hillary - and those sins, again, are mostly false accusations from those who profit by railing against her - they are nothing compared to the sins of Donald Trump.

Just please, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE, for the sake of the entire universe, Do Not Vote Trump. If you're voting Hillary like me, fine. If you're voting Johnson or Stein, fine. If you're writing in Beyonce on the Write-In line (she qualifies as 35 years old by Inauguration Day), fine. Just Please Do Not Vote Trump.

SENATOR

Here in Florida the race has a lot of candidates but again it boils down to the two major party choices:

Republican Marco Rubio vs. Democrat Pat Murphy.

The polling here is actually painful for me because Rubio is polling well. This is in spite of the fact that Rubio has the worst attendance record of any current Senator. He has no voting record or successful agenda to call his own. His disdain for the job is a matter of public record. The guy has a bad history of using Other People's Money via credit card abuses. And yet he's really only running for re-election because it boosts his hopes for a 2020 Presidential run.

If you have to vote for Murphy, it's because he'll most likely serve as a middle-of-the-road, maybe-Left-leaning Democrat along the lines of sitting Senator Bill Nelson. Murphy's biggest scandal to date is an embellished resume that doesn't help him win over undecided voters.

I have to admit this is a case - moreso than the President race because there I have respect for Hillary and am voting for her for positive reasons - where I am voting more AGAINST Rubio than voting FOR Murphy. But that's how this one rolls for me.

I'm just basically doing what I can to end Republican control of the Senate because A) they have been disastrous running both houses of Congress, B) their blocking of legitimate SCOTUS nominee Garland is an offense to the Constitution and the nation at large, C) their disdain for effective foreign policy handling during Obama's tenure deserves the greatest rebuke possible.

CONGRESS

I think I've shown a bias for Democrats and against Republicans, and I'll give you three good reasons:

1) They're incompetent idiots;
2) They're obstructionist idiots;
3) They really need to answer for their idiocy.

So, wherever you are if it's in Florida or even outside of this state or even voting overseas with absentee ballots for your primary homestead back here stateside, just do us all a favor and don't vote Republican. Just don't.

For me, that's District 17 (I think). That makes it a choice between Republican Tom Rooney, Democrat April Freeman, and Independent John Sawyer. Just to note Rooney is descended from the owners of the Pittsburgh Steelers so as a Bucs fan I oppose him on that principle, but he's also someone who openly attacked people without direct evidence for questionable associations with Middle East groups. I am seriously opposing him for that. So I'm voting for April Freeman, who's campaigning on the standard Democratic platform of improving education, improving veteran care, and protecting Social Security.

As for the rest of you across the state, if you're in District 13 PLEASE VOTE CRIST. If you're in District 12, just kick Gus Bilirakis out, damn bastard has been sitting there for ages and took over from his dad from the 1980s and 1990s, so screw that whole dynastic thing. I mean, c'mon people, bring some fresh blood and ideas into the office once in awhile... Basically for all 27 Congressional districts, no Republicans. Flush 'em out. Thank you.

STATE LEGISLATURE

Yeah, still saying PLEASE DON'T VOTE REPUBLICAN at any level. The Party just needs to burn itself down without taking the rest of us with it.

COUNTY COMMISSIONER

Yeah, it's partisan elections at this level as well. Again, depending on your county here in Florida or in other states, just... honestly, unless the Democrat is a total crook legitimately worse than the Republican - I'm talking where the Democrat is an outright horse thief and the Republican is a pro-choice Presbyterian schoolteacher who volunteers at the local dog shelter to raise puppies - okay just don't vote Republican. So here in Polk County there's a vote for County Commissioner District 5, with Democrat Carol Castagnero to support.

JUSTICE / DISTRICT RETENTION

Here in Florida we vote to retain the State Court Justices and the Appellate district judges with a simple Yes/No. For the most part this is uncontroversial stuff unless there's a judge who's been acting improper to the point of disbarment, and that's been rare. The only time in my recent memory where this was an issue was when Rick "No Ethics" Scott tried to actively campaign on the removal of sitting Justices so he could then appoint his cronies as replacements. It was so out-of-norm that the Florida Bar openly campaigned for the judges for the first time ever, and thankfully the Justices were retained. On that matter, with Scott still sitting as Governor, we DARE NOT vote any Justices out. On the bright side I haven't heard of any of the judges needing removal, so that's all good. So vote YES across the board on retaining the judges.

SHERIFF

Here in Polk County, there's just one name running - Grady Judd. You might know him from some of the nation's more high-profile ethical dilemmas of cop shootings - where he defended the killing of a cop killer by noting "that's all the bullets we had" - but he's also one of those county sheriffs who plays to the media for all its worth. The locals find him "colorful." He's not as bad as some of the other show-off sheriffs in the country, but you gotta worry... There's a write-in spot I think, but let's face it Judd's not going anywhere.

SCHOOL BOARD

This is where people need to pay more attention. It affects us at the local level and these positions have a lot of power over our kids and families in terms of delivering improvement to our educational needs.

On my ballot there's two seats open, District 1 and District 4. Regarding District 1, the race is between incumbent Hunt Berryman and Billy Townsend. Townsend is with a local activist group that from what I'm reading is pushing for genuine reforms. I'm leaning on giving Townsend a chance at the office since Berryman's tenure has not produced results. For District 4, the choices are Becky Troutman and Sara Reynolds. I'm looking at their respective biographies and while I'm a little concerned about their political ties, at least Troutman has some teaching experience in special education that makes me think she'll be more sympathetic to related issues.

POLK SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION

This is an elected position, and the nominees are William "Bill" DeHart and Brian Dockery. There's very little online or in the news about either person, which is a bit troubling. I am finding DeHart's name associated with previous Soil and Water board elections which may make him an incumbent. Thing is, what I'm reading is that the board is non-salaried with little or no authority, and was facing elimination by the state because it hadn't met in years (!) so I'm not even sure if this will have any effect on our region's environmental needs. For the heck of it, I'll probably vote for DeHart.

STATE AMENDMENTS

Been there, covered it. Basically, VOTE YES ON 2 for Medical Marijuana, VOTE NO ON 1 against the Energy Corporation Monopoly on Solar Power, and vote your conscience on the tax exemptions for items 3 and 5.

And for those of you who pine for any word on the PASCO COUNTY MOSQUITO CONTROL BOARD, here's what I got:

There's two districts, with Seat 1 contested by Sandra "Sandy" Applefield and Jerry Wells and Seat 3 contested by Shanon Holm and Gary "Buck" Joiner. I miss seeing the "Skeeter" guy running, unless he's already on one of the other seats. Anyway, Joiner's got a scandal wrapped around his reputation so there's that. His opponent Holm has been a regular campaigner for a seat on the board, but his rep as a fiscal conservative makes me worry he's going to shred an otherwise small-budget office. The final thing here is how Mike Fasano - local Republican political boss and actually a guy I've met several times and yes he's one of the few Republicans I respect - is leaning towards Joiner... so I kinda gotta go with Fasano's suggestion. As for Seat 1, Applefield is the incumbent and Wells I think has run earlier challenges. I'm not finding anything about either candidate otherwsie. Unless somebody knows of any scandalous behavior with the sitting board members - like say they allied themselves WITH the mosquitoes to destroy Port Richey or something - I don't see the harm in keeping Applefield in office.

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So, that's what I got, Floridians. Basically, NO REPUBLICANS from Trump on down to County Commissioners. YES Hillary if you're so inclined, just NO TRUMP ever. YES Murphy if you're so inclined, just NO "No-Show" RUBIO. YES on Crist if you're in that district. YES on Freeman if you're in my district. Suck it Yoho, and suck it Bilirakis. Vote YES on all the judges. Vote for reformists at the School Board elections if you can find them. Vote NO ON 1 and VOTE YES ON 2. Look both ways before crossing the street. Don't run around the house with scissors in your hand. Don't tug on Superman's cape, don't spit into... what?