You Wanna Hear a Scary Story This October?

This ought to scare the crap out of you.

There is currently nothing standing in the way of donald trump regaining the Republican nomination in 2024.

(AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE)

Let's face it. Unlike previous One-Termers who tripped into the shadows of history to write memoirs and appear as commentators on History Channel specials, trump has not gone away and if anything the Republican fanbase still worships this failure. Let us read what Emma Brockes at the Guardian has on the matter:

There was a time – millennia ago in political years – when Trump’s wacky syntax and random capitalization might have been cause for, if not for amusement, exactly, then at least some degree of dismissal. Since the inauguration of President Biden in January, it has been relatively easy to convince oneself that his predecessor has gone away. Sealed up in Mar-a-Lago with various family members, Trump has remained largely absent from public life, surfacing on the 20th anniversary of September 11 this month to commentate on a novelty pay-per-view boxing match with Don Jr in Florida, but otherwise, for those not seeking him out, gone.

The discovery that he has not in fact gone, but is still lurking on the internet disseminating conspiracy theories about the election, brings on the sick feeling you get two-thirds of the way into a horror movie, when a sense of calm is introduced prior to the biggest jump scare. Unlike the first time around, there is no possibility of laughing Trump off or assuming his idiocies won’t find a sympathetic audience. At the rally last week, two Republican congressional candidates addressed the group. A recent CNN poll found that 78% of Republicans didn’t believe that Biden legitimately won the presidency. Rightwing America, and therefore America as a whole, has yet to shake this guy off...

Historically speaking, most One-Termers have the sense to know they lost due to their unpopularity with the majority of American voters and step aside for the next round of party figures to rise to leadership roles. The only one who made a successful run after leaving the White House was Grover Cleveland, because he actually won the popular vote but lost the Electoral (an inversion of trump's situation in 2016) in 1888 and so had an actual advantage in 1892 to win again.

trump may be factually unpopular right now - and likely well into 2024 - to where he'll never perform like Grover Cleveland, but trump's never let the facts get in the way of his constant grift.

trump is running again because he keeps his Big Lie going that "I actually won, if only those idiot state elections officials stooped to cheat for me." he's running because not doing so would undersell that Big Lie to an audience eager to buy that shit up, and this political grift is the only con game he's got left.

Also, trump is hoping that by 2024 the Republican-controlled states would have rigged their electoral counting methods to ensure he and they can steal like they tried to in 2020.

If this doesn't terrify you, that 2024 will generate yet another trump-based constitutional nightmare, then you're not fully understanding the horror.

If there are any hope spots in this horror movie, it's that trump remains under civil and criminal investigation for various misdeeds ranging from defamation, tax evasion and fraud, as well as charges like interfering with elections. Thing is, it's late 2021 and we've (the nation AND the whole planet) been waiting for that shoe to drop, and given how trump's lawyers work every trick in the book to Delay, Delay, Delay we're running into the risk of NONE of these legal matters getting resolved before the next Presidential primaries. 

Tick-tock, state attorneys and local DAs. There's a monster roaming the countryside and you're the ones supposed to stop it.

Blog Status October 2016

Just saying:

I wanna thank everybody visiting my blog to read up on the Florida 2016 General Election info. Damn, you are just blowing my stat numbers out of the water.

Now if I can just entice you all to buy my b... no wait come back! I want more visits! Please... /sniff  It gets so lonely sometimes...

What if I try to find my bad comic strips from my USF student days of 1992 and scan them in? Will you all come back for that?

In 28 Days, We Vote For Real. In the Meantime, Here's Women Beating the Crap Out of Trump

I think I kept warning people about alienating the largest voting bloc in the nation. But nooooooo, the Republicans just HAD to keep ticking them off.

And now we're seeing the results in the polling. Per the Atlantic:

That’s the bad news for Trump. The worse news is that this poll likely does not include the full impact of a video, published Friday afternoon by The Washington Post, in which Trump boasts about sexually assaulting women. The poll was conducted Wednesday through Sunday, meaning some respondents were interviewed before the video’s release and some afterward. It also does not take into account the second presidential debate, in which Trump’s performance drew widely varying reviews (hint: the pundits liked it, the polled viewers sided with Hillary)...

...Clinton also continues to lead Trump by hefty margins among women, with a 33-point gap separating the candidates. Just 28 percent of likely women voters intend to pull the lever for Trump, a five-point drop from one week ago, while 61 percent plan to vote for Clinton. The lewd video of Trump might lead to an even greater gap in the home stretch toward the election.

Even more remarkably, Trump’s support has collapsed among white women without college degrees. Until recently, they formed Trump’s largest bloc of support. In 2004, they voted for George W. Bush by 19 points; in 2008, they backed John McCain by 17 points; and in 2012, they went with Mitt Romney by 20 points. This poll finds them evenly split between Clinton and Trump, with each drawing 40 percent support.

Here's Sober Nate Silver with his take:

But while we’re in something of a wait-and-see mode, one demographic split caught my eye. That was from a Public Religion Research Institute poll conducted on behalf of The Atlantic. It showed a massive gender split, with Clinton trailing Trump by 11 percentage points among men but leading him by 33 points among women. To put those numbers in perspective, that’s saying Trump would defeat Clinton among men by a margin similar to Dwight D. Eisenhower’s landslide victory over Adlai Stevenson in 1952, while Clinton would defeat Trump among women by a margin similar to … actually, there’s no good comparison, since no candidate has won a presidential election by more than 26 percentage points since the popular vote became a widespread means of voting in 1824. To get to 33 points, you’d have to take the Eisenhower-Stevenson margin and add Lyndon B. Johnson’s 23-point win over Barry Goldwater in 1964 on top of it...

Silver then postulates what the numbers might look like on a map. If you just went with ONLY Women voting this cycle, the map would look like this:

The ONLY Men map goes the other way, obviously, with Trump winning...

So obviously the solution is we need more women voters.

Granted, polling does not equal actual results: You gotta play the game to see who wins. But the data leading up to Game Day is all pointing towards more voters turning away from Trump, and with voting groups turning in great numbers that suggest a nationwide trend. Meaning that most the states - where the Electoral College retains its power - are in play for Hillary, unlike previous election cycles where certain Red States would stay Red due to the Demographics no matter what.

As such, the Electoral College map we're looking at for November 8th should look like this:

And the math is tight in places like Arizona and Georgia (and yes Texas) so this map is still a bit... conservative in predicting the Electoral votes. And there's also the bit about the Mormons finally in open rebellion against Trump's vulgarity. so there's a good chance Utah is a Toss-Up for once.

So barring massive voter suppression efforts - which hopefully doesn't affect enough states, and may not happen on large enough a scale if the Democrats' ground game is ready to roll - or outright refusal to vote, we should be looking at a massive Trump loss for the Presidency. If there's any justice in the world, Trump's sinking ship will be an epic enough collapse that it will drag enough Republican Senators and Congresspersons down with him. Which is looking likelier - even for the gerrymandered House! - by the day.

JUST GET THE DAMN VOTE OUT, DEMOCRATS.

We have 28 days to survive this.

Help a Blogger Out With His Bicycle

So I was cycling this morning for my exercise when the seat broke.

Yes, I am that much of a fatass. I *am* losing weight, though.

It's just now I can't do it with my bicycle. The seat needs replacing and the frame probably needs checking to make sure it didn't bend when I fell off into the mud.

So here I am, hat in hand, asking if the 8 regular readers of this blog might know about 50,000 people or so who can pass around the donation plate so I can afford finding Bicycle Repairman to fix my ride.

There's a PayPal button to the right, and any help would be most appreciated.

If you're very kind, you can visit my Writings tab and see what stories and books are on the market and then any purchases will lead to some earnings that will help with the bills.

Also wik, gotta get prepared for the upcoming annual NaNoWriMo, so to anybody out there joining in on the novel writing efforts, good luck!