Thoughts About the 2022 Midterms

A lot of post-midterms articles are out there on the Intertubes, a number of wry observations and urgent recriminations towards Republicans, and I would recommend glancing at Rude Pundit's to get a taste of the schadenfreude getting served over the GOP's historic failures.

I say "failure" even as the Republicans claimed (slim) control of the U.S. House of Representatives - and retained control of a number of Red states - because it's been traditional in the modern era of partisan politics that the party in opposition to the White House - this year the Republicans in opposition to the Democratic President Biden - wins big in the following midterms. This year, the Republicans were expecting a "Red Wave" to counter the 2018 "Blue Wave" that gave Democrats control of the House vs. donald trump.

The polling - mostly from conservative-leaning providers like RCP - were all pointing to a huge 30-seat flip of the House. There were a number of projections Republicans could regain a tightly fought Senate, even in spite of the crazed candidates running in various campaigns in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, and Arizona (and several others).

Republicans were beating the war drums hard on the economy, railing against signs of a recession as inflation (re: gas prices) soared to levels that hurt any President's standing with voters.

This was also all happening with the 2022 district realignments for the House, where the updated Census numbers required new maps and allowed the parties - yes, Democrats did it too - to aggressively gerrymander those districts to give them advantages. Republicans held the gerrymander advantage due to controlling enough battleground states to outduel the Dems (who also shot themselves in the foot by not gerrymandering New York to their advantage, screw you Andrew Cuomo).

Throw in the Republicans attempts at voter suppression - far greater than what they had in 2018 and 2020 - and there was every likelihood that turnout would drop, hurting Democratic chances.

And with all of that going the Republicans' way... they STILL failed to retake the Senate - which added an extra Democratic seat meaning the 50-50 power-sharing is no longer working and Mitch McConnell can suck it - and their win in the House was by a meager five seats, causing headaches for party leadership they weren't expecting.

It is, according to historians, the worst midterm performance for an opposition party since 1962. There was a similar situation for Democrats in 2002 failing against Dubya, but the 9/11 attacks and the patriotic fervor clearly skewed the situation. There were the Republicans failing against FDR in 1934, but the Great Depression was still happening and a lot of Americans still hated them and Hoover for screwing them over.

The Republicans ought to be rejoicing in that they control the House, which they can use to investigate Biden's administration family for scandals every day they meet on the Hill, and file every impeachment complaint until all they do is vote on embarrassing Biden and Harris for the 2024 campaign (lacking control of the Senate, no impeachment will go their way: For the Republicans it's all about making the Democrats look corrupt and weak to their own voting base). They are openly planning repeated hearings over Russia's planted evidence Hunter Biden's laptop, as it's the only thing they can do other than force federal shutdowns to break the entire government.

Instead, the Republicans are in-fighting over the poor results. They were expecting a wave and all they got was a trickle. The My Pillow guy Mike Lindell - who is constantly shilling conspiracy theories for trump's Big Lie about "stolen votes" - is challenging for control of the RNC, arguing the current head - Mitt Romney's daughter Ronna McDaniel - failed to inspire better turnout. There were a number of reports of GOP leaders railing against trump's involvement, pushing on them unstable and unpopular candidates like Hershel Walker in Georgia who hurt turnout among needed independent voters.

There are going to be post-mortems, autopsies, follow-up reports, what have you, which the Republicans will ignore like they did after they were stunned in 2012, when they expected four years of Tea Party fauxrage would turn America against Obama. The GOP's response after that loss was to double-down on the Far Right fearmongering to encourage their voting base to stay faithful, and they've been spiraling downward ever since thanks to trump's takeover in 2016.

If the midterms are showing me anything, these are the observations I've made:

Like Bob Burnett points out at Common Dreams, the American electorate is polarized to the point of frozen stasis. In previous eras before the Culture War shifted all of the Conservative votes to the Republicans after 1994, there was an expectation of centrist/moderate party voters crossing the aisle to vote for candidates or issues regardless of party. By 2014, branding won out: Republicans (tm) can no longer find themselves voting for ANY Democrat (tm) (and the same goes for Dems refusing to vote for any GOPer) even when the issues should compel them to vote for the other party that's in favor of those issues.

While this means you can rely on your party base, it means you can't expect any more voters to flip your way. Whatever independent/No Party Affiliate voters are out there, you find yourself praying for them to show up for you to overcome any demographic limitations you've already set for your party with the gerrymandering and suppression. And voter turnout for NPAs is unreliable at best.

The results are also telling me that for the Republicans this is the best they can do for turnout, and they STILL screwed up. This is as far as they can get for voter turnout and numbers going their way. Even WITH the extreme gerrymandering favoring them, even WITH the voter suppression laws they put in place to reduce turnout numbers... the Republicans STILL couldn't pull off a Red Wave of their own.

For every voter the GOP had on their side showing up angry over inflation, the Democrats had voters showing up angry over the loss of abortion rights. For every Red state they held onto, the Republicans lost control of a couple of state legislatures they could not afford to lose.

And this was the midterms. Voter turnout for Presidential election cycles are higher, and 2024 could well be a repeat of 2020 in that regard.

This is also something hurting Republicans in the long run: The inevitable demographic shift of older (Boomer) voters to younger (Gen Z/Millennial) voters is starting to happen. One of the things the Republicans realized in 2012 was that by 2028, simple dying off of the older generations that make up the Conservative voting base will increase just as the kids who grew up watching Republicans burn everything down will get old enough to vote. (The divided Generation X sitting between the two generations is too small a voter bloc - they're the ones not showing up to vote at all - to help Republicans) We are looking at a one-two punch for Liberal-leaning younger voters that could flip even Red states Blue in ways that suppression and gerrymandering can't stop. 

It's one big reason why the Republicans doubled-down anyway: They figured that the 2028 demographic shift was unstoppable, so they worked in the short-term to dominate Congress and the White House to ensure the one thing that could counter that Blue shift - a Far Right Supreme Court - would be in place to prevent the full liberalization of America that would undo everything they've done since Reagan's tenure.

In the short term, the Far Right won. In the long term, the bill for all the damage they've done - the racism, the deficits, the corruption made worse by trump's rise to power - is coming due. This middling, frustrating midterm fiasco for the Republicans is the beginning of the end of the control they've had on the public discourse since 1980.

And it terrifies them. The Far Right Republican base have a pretty good idea what these midterms mean, and the panic showing through their ongoing performative outrage is going to get worse.

The Wingnuts are about to double-down on the previous double-down to turn crazier than they've ever been. Stay safe, people.

And Io Saturnalia!

Dark Days for Florida in 2022

I woke up to a gray day.

Not only because of an incoming Hurricane in mid-November - remember when hurricane seasons ended in October? Thanks to climate change, not anymore! - making it a dreary rainy day.

It was a gray dreary day because here in Florida for the 2022 midterms, I woke up to news that Republican Governor Ron DeSantis - that racist, immigrant-bashing, blasphemous moran - not just won re-election but he won in a blow-out by nearly double digits over Charlie Crist.

There was a similar result with Marco Rubio - that wet noodle of a Senator who barely shows up and only for television interviews - winning big against Val Demings for the U.S. Senator seat.

It was basically a massive blowout statewide in Florida for Republicans, while at the national level the GOP suffered with poor results, failing to flip the Senate (so far, some states are undecided but the Democratic incumbents are holding on) and barely winning the U.S. House despite poll predictions having them win 25-plus seats to wreak havoc on President Biden's hopes.

So today was me sitting around waiting for a hurricane to hit muttering to myself "What the hell happened?"

Previous midterm elections - with Florida's Governor races as part of the ballots - were never this bad for Democrats. In 2018, DeSantis eked out a win over Andrew Gillum with 4.07 million over 4.04 million votes. In 2014, Rick Scott won against Charlie Crist with 2.86 million votes over 2.8 million.

But this time, 2022 with DeSantis facing Crist who was running his second chance as a Democrat (Crist was a Republican Governor 2006-2010 but switched parties when he lost favor with a growing extremist GOP), the results were 4.6 million for DeSantis and 3.1 million for Crist. The voter turnout for the Senate race was pretty much the same: Rubio at 4.6 million and Demings at 3.1 million. 

Democrats just... lost over a million Florida voters somewhere. In a midterms where Democratic voter turnout saw moderate or better gains across most of the nation. What the hell happened?

In my darkest, angriest mindset, I'm going to the conspiracy angle of hard voter suppression happening. Republicans didn't gain voters all that much between 2018 to 2022, but the Democrats obviously lost them. I would be screaming about somebody somewhere blocking Democratic voters in likely Blue districts... except there's been no reports of that on social media or regular media.

Hey, if QAnon can run around screaming "stolen elections," I have a right to scream the same thing. It's just... dammit, where's the evidence of it? Alas.

The only other rational explanation was voter disinterest. All those Democratic voters just... refused to vote for the party this year. There's two reasons why that could be the culprit.

One of the bigger voter suppression stunts DeSantis pulled this election cycle was aggressively redoing the U.S. Congressional districts with extreme Republican-friendly gerrymandering. It was so blatantly partisan a gerrymander it ought to have been voted down by even the Republican legislature, or at least stricken down by the courts. And yet, nobody fought it.

Worse, the Florida Democratic party failed to challenge for every district in spite of that gerrymandering. Several districts had no Democratic congressional candidate, increasing the voter disinterest to turn out for the other important races for Governor and Senator.

Study after study shows that extreme partisan gerrymandering affects voter turnout. When DeSantis redid the Congressional map, he not only improved the odds of state Republicans winning extra U.S. House seats, he also improved his own odds to win re-election by depressed Democratic turnout.

The second reason for the drop in Democratic voter turnout? There had been complaints before - and this time around seemed to prove it - that the Democratic voting base just didn't like or trust Charlie Crist. Due to the fact he used to be Republican, the fact he still stood as a more Centrist moderate candidate to a base that would prefer progressives, and the fact he just didn't seem to reach more people this time around all hurt the overall ticket. How this affected Val Demings - who had a better rapport with the Democratic base, and should have seen better results - still doesn't make sense outside of the anti-Crist factions just refusing to show up at all.

And for all the evidence that the Democratic Party is failing to reach Hispanic voters - especially here in Florida, where the Cuban and Puerto Rican voting blocs are heavily social conservatives - I don't think that is a major reason for the missing voters from 2018: If the Hispanics were flipping parties, we'd be seeing an increase in Republican turnout this 2022 over 2018. Still, the failure by the Democratic Party at both the state and national level to appeal better to Latino voters is a major setback that the Dems have to address.

My mood is not lightened by the reports of Democratic gains elsewhere, especially in Midwest states where Dems gained control of state legislatures in Michigan and Minnesota. There may be a chance that the Democrats keep control of the Senate - only with gaining one extra seat, which may not be enough to break the filibuster/cloture stranglehold - but the Republicans are about to gain control of the House (due in strong part to DeSantis' gerrymandering, damn him). The reports are that the GOP will have a slim lead in the House, but that a schism between more hardcore wingnut factions could undercut the fight for Speakership. I doubt it: Republicans will unite even if it's behind a spineless cur like McCarthy if there's a chance to get their Cruelty agenda passed.

So here I sit, waiting for another storm to hit Florida, praying that at least this hurricane can well hit Mar-A-Lago like a bullseye and wash it all into the sea.

I've been raging and fuming ever since 2010, ever since sanity failed my state when the Republican voters eagerly put into office a documented Medicare Fraud. It's only gotten worse since then: The cruelty, the failures of leadership, all to "own the libs" even as the state literally falls apart bit by bit, disaster by disaster.

I'd like to move away, I'm at that point of giving up on the state I've lived almost my whole life. But I'm too old to go job-hunting across states anymore, and damn it all the rent is too damned high.

Gods help us.

Four For the Fourth: Fixing the Flaws

Reminder: here are links to my other Four For the Fourth blog articles, one about a plea for silent firecrackers, one about women's rights to independence, and one about needing more metal music on the TV specials dammit!

This is, as mentioned earlier, one of the most dire 4th of Julys I've ever honored.

Because the state of our nation is at a crossroads between majority progressive reform and minority violent retrenchment. As David Atkins notes at the Washington Monthly:

The Roberts Court has imperiled America’s unity. The country’s center-left majority is disenfranchised and under assault from the likes of Samuel Alito. Something has to give.

The large, productive populations of blue states like California and New York—which famously give far more to the national treasury than they get back—chafe under a system that affords far more clout to the citizens of Idaho and Wyoming. The voting majority that won seven of the last eight presidential popular votes and that constitutes 70 percent of the GDP will throw off the yoke of a conservative minority. Most Americans below the age of 40 are progressive—well to the left of today’s median Democrat—and will not buckle under the imposition of a white Christian nationalist agenda by an aging conservative minority.

They know that the Supreme Court has lost its moral authority. Republicans have won the popular vote in a presidential election only once in 30 years, yet Republican presidents have nominated most of the Court’s justices. No Democratic president has chosen a chief justice since Harry Truman in 1946. The last Republican president entered office having lost by nearly 3 million votes even with the aid of a foreign dictatorship, whose help he begged for on the campaign trail. One of those justices was stolen outright by Mitch McConnell under pretenses of it being an election year, only to see the Senate confirm another justice while votes were being cast in the next cycle. The Senate that confirmed those justices is absurdly skewed in favor of small, white, rural conservative states, such that Senate Democrats represent 43 million more voters yet are locked in a 50-50 tie. And the Senate’s skew will only become more blatantly unjust and unsustainable...

The Framers created the Senate and the Electoral College to bring small states on board with the larger national project and to temper what they worried would be the passions of the electorate. They feared demagogues—yet ironically, their solution enabled the rise of one. Their concessions to slave states failed to prevent the Civil War. They got many things wrong and could not foresee or prevent the rise of political parties. Crucially, they also expected future generations to change the Constitution frequently, yet it has barely been amended in almost a century...

The reason I started this blog back in 2006 was to start arguing over the amendments our nation needed to repair a creaky and aging federal constitution: A model of governance that needed to update for a 21st Century that was more progressive than the Founders realized, and stuck to an electoral model that wasn't meant for so many states and a population more than 50 times the nation's original size.

I mean, I got into a tweet debate with Conor Friedersdorf this morning about the problems with the U.S. Senate representation:

Back then the population disparity (10 times) was not as immense as it is today (68 times) between the largest state (CA) and the smallest (WY). You can fit 25 states plus DC into CA and still have room for New Jersey. THAT'S how bad the Senatorial imbalance is now.

— Witty Librarian For Ukraine (@PaulWartenberg) July 4, 2022

This is just one of the many things that need to get fixed so that the tyranny of Minority Party Rule doesn't destroy this nation.

Just amending the representation in the Senate - to end the equal seating of two Senators per state regardless of population, which has unbalanced this Senate to where the political minority of small states can logjam the entire legislative process - would be a huge reform. Changing the rules so that the ten most populous states receive an extra third Senator while the ten smallest states shrink to just one Senator would be the most rational means of doing it (although the small states will begin screaming how their representation is being taken away. Too bad. You don't have enough people to justify having that much power!). Just by changing this, the responsibilities of the Senate - especially the consent and advise for judicial appointments - will reflect the interests of the majority of voters nationwide.

Most other reforms our Constitution should focus on would be fixing a Supreme Court that has become too partisan, and too much a source of political brinksmanship that has helped polarize our parties.

The simplest fix to correct the Court right now - the near-permanent Far Right stranglehold on six seats out of nine - would be to expand the court. And this wouldn't even need an Amendment because Congress already has the power to add or subtract from the bench. This has actually happened before in the 1860s when the nation was responding to the last time the political minority - Southern slaveholding conservatives - caused this level of damage. They shrank the number of Justices in 1866 to stop Andrew Johnson from replacing retiring jurists with pro-segregationist people, and then re-expanded the number to nine (where it's been since) to give U.S. Grant and the then-liberal Republicans the chance to ensure an anti-slavery pro-rights Court would work.

So adding four seats - while the Democrats control both the White House (Biden) and the Senate (tie-breaker vote) before the 2022 midterms shake things up - would be the simplest thing but also greatest political hazard for Democrats. They worry that a future Republican-held Congress and White House would escalate like an arms race: If Dems upped the seats to 13 for a 7-6 ideological advantage, the future GOP would respond by added 10 seats for a 16-to-7 sledgehammer. Even though there IS a legitimate reason to expand to 13 seats - there are 13 judicial districts (11 state regions and 2 special jurisdictions) that require oversight by a Supreme Court Justice - the Dems don't seem to want to go that route.

Even though the Republicans would jump at the chance to expand to 13 seats right now if they were in power, and bump it up to a 10-to-3 advantage they would never let go of.

There is another way to fix the Supreme Court but it might involve an amendment: Setting retirement age limits. Right now due to wording in Article III Section I, judicial appointments may be lifetime. Best way to make sure the SCOTUS seats change hands - by either a term limit (12 or 16 years) or mandatory retirement (65 years old) - and make it harder for either party to plan any long-term control of the judiciary.

Another Amendment this nation needs in this dark hour is something, anything, to stop the partisan gerrymandering that gives the state parties too much control over who can actually run for office and who can win. We've seen the evidence and reports about how gerrymandering districts to extremes reduces voter interest and turnout. We know how gerrymandering pulls away power from the urban populations and gives that power to sparse rural areas. We've watched the last 10 years how partisan gerrymandering gave us minority party rule at both the state and Congressional levels. 

Instead of fair districts, instead of ensuring each person's vote will count, gerrymandering diminishes that power and grants it to the special interests - mostly the greedy and the evangelical - who don't care about what happens to the citizenry. If we could get a Congress responsive enough to pass such reforms... but we can't, because there's enough figures in both parties who prefer the gerrymandered status quo. The irony: Gerrymandering makes sure we don't get enough reformers elected to end gerrymandering anyway.

Oh, and getting rid of the broken Electoral College - a system that violates the will of the majority of Americans, may well deny us rightfully-elected Presidents in the future - is a must.

The United States need so many other reforms to our electoral system and to the checks and balances that ought to exist between the federal branches and the states. To get there, we as voters are going to need a concerted effort - by enough Americans across enough states - to use whatever power we have left at the ballot box to pass these reforms and restore both our rights and our safety. 

That means voting FOR those who can reform our system - Democrats - and voting AGAINT those who will corrupt it further - Republicans - for their own greedy sadistic needs.

This won't be a good Independence Day until we're independent from the corrupt powers in high places.

Good luck. Keep fighting.

Update on DeSantis' 2022 Gerrymander of Doom

I mentioned a month ago my rage at Florida Governor DeSantis' heavy-handed gerrymandering effort to skew the Congressional districts so far Republican as to offend common sense. Well, the court matter is moving relatively quickly because a couple days ago a district court smashed DeSantis' map with a sledgehammer (via Mary Ellen Klas at the Tampa Bay Times (paywall)): 

In a swift reversal of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ bold political gambit, a Leon County Circuit Court judge on Wednesday threw out the new congressional map drawn by the governor and approved by legislators, ordering a new map drawn by a Harvard expert to be put in place.

Judge Layne Smith, in a ruling from the bench after a four-hour hearing, found DeSantis’ map unconstitutional under the Fair Districts Amendment of the Florida Constitution “because it diminishes the African Americans’ ability to select the representative of their choice.”

Smith, who served in the administration of former Gov. Rick Scott, was appointed to the county bench by Scott and later appointed to the circuit court by DeSantis. He said it would be up to lawmakers to decide if they want to enact a new map when the Legislature convenes for a week-long special session on May 23.

But in an effort to get precincts set for candidates to qualify, he ordered a map drawn by the plaintiffs’ expert, Harvard professor Stephen Ansolabehere, to replace the one approved by the governor and Legislature...

It should be interesting to note that Smith's place on the bench is due to Republican governors putting him there, and he still noted how racist DeSantis' gerrymandering was. It's also helpful to note that Smith is well aware of the urgency of the matter, bringing in a third party serving the court to make a replacement map should the Florida Legislature refuse to act. Considering the Lege DID have a Congressional map - only for DeSantis to veto it and force his own obviously broken one to replace it - it would be interesting to see if the House and Senate re-pass their original bill and dare DeSantis to veto again.

Back to the report:

Voting rights groups, such as the League of Women Voters of Florida, and individual plaintiffs filed the lawsuit April 22 and asked the court for a temporary injunction and to order the Legislature to redraw a constitutional map.

The plaintiffs argued that the district drawn by the governor’s staff, and approved by the Legislature along mostly partisan lines, violated the provisions that prohibit the state from diminishing the ability of minority voters from electing candidates of their choice.

Smith ultimately agreed.

“I do find persuasive the arguments that were made about the diminishment of African American votes,” Smith said. “...The district that has since been enacted and signed into law by the governor does disperse 367,000 African American votes between four different districts.”

He acknowledged that the governor’s proposed Congressional District 5 may be a more compact district but said it is not in line with the minority voting rights protections in the state Constitution...

However, an attorney for the state, Mohammad Omar Jazil, argued that recent decisions by the U.S. Supreme Court have restricted the use of race as a guiding factor in redistricting cases.

He said that adhering to the Fair District provisions would not be considered a compelling interest as required in the federal Constitution.

“No court has ever held that complying with a state constitution is a compelling interest,” Jazil said.

However, the plaintiffs countered that the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in the 2019 case, Rucho v. Common Cause, that “provisions in state statutes and state constitutions can provide standards and guidance for state courts to apply...”

The Fair District Amendments DO clarify that the districts cannot be drawn to diminish minority voter representation, which is likely the point on which Smith pinned his decision. It should be noted that DeSantis' map also violated another provision in the Amendments saying the districts should not skew favorably to one party over another: Nobody can tell me a "20-Republican to 8-Democrat" map in a state where Republicans and Democrats are near-equal in registered voters is NOT skewed.

As Klas notes in the Times article DeSantis is already planning to appeal, and Judge Smith is expecting that even as he finalizes his court order. By the looks of it, the next stop is the state appellate court and then the Florida Supreme Court (and if DeSantis is really pissed about it, the U.S. Supreme Court).

There is no guarantee that Smith's ruling will stand: The upper state courts are just as stacked with Republican appointees and Federalist Society conservatives, to where they can rule for DeSantis by ignoring or even mis-reading the state constitution and its amendments.

But this is a good sign, that even a Republican-picked judge like Smith said Aw Hell Naw to DeSantis' openly partisan and racist attempt to pack the U.S. Congress with gerrymandered Far Right wingnuts.

Here's hoping THIS Gerrymander dies a quick death. And DeSantis has to choke on eating its remains.

P.S. I hope that Harvard guy Ansolabehere - wait, seriously, Ansola Be Here? - draws up a new Congressional district that includes one district that's No Party Affiliate plurality, just so we can see how fcked up partisan gerrymandering really is.

P.S.S. I shouldn't mock other people's last name. I suffer from that fate myself. Did I ever tell you how one year my high school yearbook added an "h" to the end of my last name? They made me Scottish! The school cafeteria started serving me haggis! I'm with Mike Myers on this: All Scottish cuisine IS based on a dare.

DeSantis' Map to Electoral Hell

Update: Many thanks to driftglass for including this article in Crooks&Liars Mike's Blog Round-up! 

If there's a "Things I Despise" list, somewhere in the Top Five is a seething disgust for my state's pandering demonizing governor Ron DeSantis, he of the Culture Wars obsessions in a desperate attempt to outmaneuver the likes of trump himself for the 2024 Presidential primaries.

Somewhere just slightly above him is a raging disgust for the constant corruption of state-level gerrymandering, where every ten years the Far Right Conservatives running Florida and half the other states intentionally skew the population numbers to carve out party-friendly districts to where Republicans will have enough "safe" seats to hold onto political power even when statistically speaking their numbers put them in the minority.

(And yes, I hate the hypocrisy of Democrats configuring their own gerrymandering in response. It's a downward spiral where only partisans survive while moderates who can't campaign in any districts get kicked to the curb)

I had been hoping across the years of blogging at this place that eventually the gerrymander would face enough legal scrutiny in the courts that the damn thing would expire, but alas in 2019 the conservative-bent Supreme Court decided to not only spare the gerrymander but gave it a nice home and a full pension.

From there, it was only a matter of time - the 2022 Midterms which OH FCKING GOD IS THIS YEAR - that the gerrymander would come back to mock my pragmatic sense of electoral fairness.

So of course I was dreading how the Florida Legislature - dominated by Republicans since the 1990s and looking to enforce that dominance for another ten years - would carve out new state-level and federal Congressional districts even with the constitutionally-mandated Fair Districts amendments limiting how they could twist population zones into five Republican districts for every one Democratic even though the party split statewide is close to 45-45 with 10 percent third-party/no-party registered.

(If the redistricting process was truly fair, you'd think at least ONE No-Party-Affiliated district would pop up at the state level out of 120 Representative districts, but nooooooo.)

Apparently, for the state districts - House and Senate - the voting was done along party lines and the Florida Democratic members questioning the lack of transparency although it doesn't seem like there's much room to challenge the final maps. The state maps were sent to the State Supreme Court for final review and apparently that Court - as Republican-leaning as they are after 20 years of one-party rule in Florida - were cleared this March.

What happened to dial up the redistricting drama this cycle was an unusual veto of the Congressional maps, something that DeSantis could interfere with and did so. Previous governors never insisted on drawing up their own redistricting maps, but DeSantis did that this time and with a map a little more partisan than even the legislative Republicans were comfortable with. 

At first it seemed like the Lege were going to put up a ruckus when DeSantis called for a special session - which costs extra to the taxpayers, by the way - to get them vote his way... and then this week the GOP legislators pretty much rolled over and agreed to support DeSantis' map. To Joe Hernandez at NPR for more:

Republican legislative leaders in Florida say they're going to give up trying to redraw the state's new map of congressional districts and instead consider one offered by Gov. Ron DeSantis during a special session next week.

DeSantis, a potential Republican presidential aspirant, has been pushing a map that's considered more advantageous to his party.

The announcement on Monday by state Senate President Wilton Simpson and House Speaker Chris Sprowls came two weeks after DeSantis vetoed a map that had been approved by the legislature.

"At this time, Legislative reapportionment staff is not drafting or producing a map for introduction during the special session," the lawmakers said in a letter. "We are awaiting a communication from the Governor's Office with a map that he will support."

The ACLU of Florida condemned the legislature's decision to punt the responsibilities of redistricting to DeSantis, calling it an "unprecedented" and "undemocratic" move.

"People should pick their politicians, not the other way around," the group said in a statement...

DeSantis is arguing that the Lege's map carved out two Black-majority districts in North Florida that he feels should be more "race-neutral," but in the process he's looking to redraw everything else around that to skew the results more in favor to Republicans. To refer to Jane C. Timm and Marc Caputo over at NBC News:

The map — which would carve up a Black-held district — was released Wednesday afternoon, just days after state legislators said they would defer to DeSantis, a Republican, on the new congressional boundaries. The Republican-controlled Legislature drew maps that would have created less of a GOP advantage, but DeSantis vetoed them last month.

DeSantis' map would create 20 Republican seats and eight Democratic ones based on 2020 electoral data, according to Matthew Isbell, a leading Florida-based Democratic data consultant who analyzed the maps Wednesday evening. Florida’s congressional delegation consists of 16 Republicans and 11 Democrats in the House. The state was apportioned an additional House seat after the 2020 census.

“It’s so blatantly partisan,” Isbell said. “The only way you can create a 20-and-8 map... was to basically say, ‘Screw Black representation.’”

As I've mentioned earlier, in terms of voter numbers there's a near-even balance between registered Republicans (5.14 million) and registered Democrats (5.03 million) so in a 28-seat situation it ought to be 15R - 13D (if you calculate the No-Party count of 3.8 million, it ought to be 11 Republican, 10 Democrat, and 7 NPA).

Yet this gerrymandering by DeSantis would give Republicans a 20-to-8 advantage in Congressional seats. It's insanely wrong, and gives too much power to Republicans when it shouldn't.

And it's unconstitutional as hell. Those Fair District Amendments I'd mentioned earlier require that the redrawn districts do not conflict with minority (read: Black and Latino) rights, and those districts cannot be drawn in such a way as to "favor or disfavor a political party or incumbent." The map that DeSantis wants clearly over-represents Republicans, and by breaking up two districts that were designed to protect minority representation he's violating that rule as well.

It's clear that this is a matter heading to the courts, but it's also under a deadline because these midterms require the electoral maps be in place for the Congressional primaries by September (meaning August at the very latest). Even if this matter gets sped through the appeals process, there is a very dark possibility that at least for 2022 DeSantis' map will be the one used for the national election cycle this November.

And that could seriously impact on which party controls the U.S. House heading into 2023. If the Republicans regain control of the House even by one seat due to DeSantis' manipulations, we are likely going to see the swift retuning of Congressional investigations into baseless allegations of unproven voter fraud and meaningless impeachment inquiries against President Biden out of sheer spite for what legitimately happened to donald trump (twice).

This is why I hate gerrymanders. Instead of voting for actual representation on issues that matter to constituents it's all been turned into an exercise of map-making to let partisan hacks seize control, and wield power for their own selfish needs and NOT for the people living back home.

I hope to God DeSantis' map fails and that sanity - even if it means a 17-11 Republican "majority" that still doesn't represent us - prevails.

In the meantime, the only remaining way to defeat a gerrymander is to GET THE VOTE OUT and override the statistical disadvantages that the Republicans try to force on Democratic voters. Rise up, Democrats, turnout still means everything...

In The Year 2021, Will a Just and Shining Future Finally Be Won

The year 2020 is officially ended, although much of the madness and dread that permeated that long long soul-sucking period of history - such as a trumpian administration sinking faster into corruption before Biden's inauguration - still awaits a future purging.

I still need to make a reckoning of that year - part of me wants to write up a Winners/Losers checklist but it's difficult to finish while the chaos is slipping to and fro - but in the meanwhile we do need to look ahead as Infidel753 does at his blog: 

1. When 2022 and 2024 arrive, most of the Democratic voting base will judge Biden and the Democrats in Congress mainly by results.  Has the pandemic been vanquished?  Have jobs and wages (not "the economy", which takes in all kinds of things, but jobs and wages specifically) recovered?  Has federal legislation to protect voting rights from state-level gerrymandering and vote suppression been enacted?  Has Medicare access been expanded or some other kind of public option been provided?  Have DC and Puerto Rico become states?  If the Democrats achieve results, our voters will care only that it was done, not how it was done.  Conversely, if little or nothing is accomplished, nobody will much care about whatever reasons or excuses are offered...

You need to go to Infidel's blog and read the whole article: It's not so much a checklist of a Liberal To Do List as it is a manual (and warning) of what to expect in the coming political cycle.

Much of what's coming is a pattern of destruction and obstruction we've already seen: The Republicans have already made it abundantly clear they will NOT respect the legitimacy of Biden's Presidency and will do everything to break it (and break the nation in the process). The Far Right media will obviously beat the "Impeach Biden" war drums within a day of Biden's swearing-in: for example, pinning the fault of 350,000+ Americans dead of COVID on his shoulders rather than on trump whose actual malfeasance in the affair was - and still is - the primary culprit in that tragedy.

The Republicans are going to spend 2021 - all of the 2020s decade - doing everything they can to hold onto the corrupt Minority Rule powers they wield. They've gotten to the point of Rule Or Ruin in their world-view, they no longer believe in the ebb-and-flow of power cycling between the major parties like it's done for much of the 20th Century. They're at the point that Republicans are terrified of the future... because the path forward from here follows the Democratic/Liberal ideals, not their own.

Half of what Infidel discusses on his article can only occur if the Democrats hold slim control of both halves of Congress, so with the Senate still on the edge with two Georgia Senatorial runoffs we can't be certain how far the Democratic agenda can go. All of what Infidel suggests is where it SHOULD go, such as the needed inclusions of new states to grant those regions - a broken Puerto Rico in particular - the legitimacy of statehood to stabilize their communities and promote better public service. A lot of what Infidel lists are things that should have been happening for ages, denied or blocked only because a calcifying Republican Party refused to see the merits of such efforts (has it ever occurred to Republicans that a habitually conservative Puerto Rican population could go Red and NOT Blue in future federal elections?) to even compromise or provide bipartisan effort to achieve them.

But Republicans can't and won't compromise any more: Politics is officially a Zero Sum game to them, so it's left to the Democrats to get things actually done anymore.

Which is where this coming decade offers so much potential for getting things done. While the Game of Demographics - the shift from older white conservative voting blocs to younger ethnically open liberal blocs - is still not really there yet for liberals to feel safe about achieving results - in health care reforms, civil rights, wage and employment rights, better education, a more just and loving world - the signs are aligning towards it.

What Biden, Harris, the Democratic leaders in Congress, the GOTV leadership of Democrats in battleground states -not just Stacey Abrams but thousands like her - what they can achieve this first year in a Biden Presidency is the foundation of a Liberal (not yet Progressive, sorry BernieBros) era that ought to repair not only the damage done by a vandal-plagued trump Era but also build past the roadblocks that Republicans have been throwing in our nation's path since 1994.

A lot of this still depends on those Georgia Senate races - the early voting on that (with huge numbers) wrapped up and the official election day for that is coming up next - to where none of us can feel safe about what's ahead. If Republicans can keep a slim 51-seat lead in the Senate, that means Mitch McConnell remains in power and can wield every obstructionist tool at his disposal to delay the Democrats' agenda for another two years at least.

If it comes to that, if Congress becomes a pit of McConnell's hellish desires, Biden and the Democrats can still try to rebuild as much of the federal system they can - while still wary of the conservative Judiciary trump and McConnell have built to oppose the oncoming Blue Path - with a dedicated effort to undercut the corruption the Republicans have been operating with at the state level. 

The long-term objective of breaking the Republican Minority Rule needs to focus on the insane level of Gerrymandering the Republicans commit at the state level in battleground states - Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida especially - and that the Far Right will keep deploying to suppress future Democratic voter turnout. There have been successes in weakening the Gerrymander efforts, but our nation has yet to find a way to kill those damn things outright. With the chaos trump infused into the 2020 U.S. Census efforts, it's likely the Republican-controlled states will use skewed numbers to Gerrymander even more to prevent Democratic majorities - even slim ones - in those states to elect honest proportional representation.

That's just one thing I can think of that Biden and the Democratic Party needs to be doing. Infidel's list of To Do's - again, go to that link - lists a whole lot more. Every one of them a necessary act to recover from this pandemic, from this economic malaise, to repair this collapsing edifice we know as the United States of America.

We should see an end to the trump years like the fading nightmare it's all been.

We are going to wake up to a busy decade of hard work. That shining future is just the morning sunrise. Get some coffee if you need it.

Blind From The Bench: Republican Justices Let Gerrymanders Live, Dooming Fair Elections

To make the long story short: A Republican-controlled Supreme Court ruled today that they shouldn't interfere with Republican-controlled state legislatures that are making partisan gerrymanders that overwhelmingly favor Republicans at the expense of the voters' right to choose (via Amy Howe at SCOTUSBlog)

In his opinion for the court, Chief Justice John Roberts explained that partisan-gerrymandering claims pose particularly difficult problems for courts because it is well settled that legislatures can consider politics when drawing district maps. The question that courts would have to decide is when the consideration of politics has gone too far and violates the Constitution. But there’s no requirement, Roberts wrote, that a party’s representation in a congressional delegation or state legislature reflect its share of the statewide vote – a concept known as proportional representation.

Instead, Roberts emphasized, what plaintiffs in partisan-gerrymandering cases are asking courts to decide is what level of representation would be fair, and how to draw maps to achieve that level of fairness. There are many different ways to measure fairness, Roberts suggested, and choosing among them “poses basic questions that are political, not legal.” Nothing in the Constitution provides standards to decide what is fair, much less the kind of “limited and precise standards that are clear, manageable, and politically neutral” that courts would need. In the absence of such standards, Roberts concluded, courts should refrain from deciding partisan-gerrymandering cases...

Roberts is basically saying "Not My Problem," passing the buck back to state legislatures that will never take the matter as serious as Roberts claims they should. This is basically abandoning an aspect of Judicial Review that gave federal courts the power to force the other two federal branches - and the states - to play by Constitutional rules.

...Reading her dissent from the bench, Kagan emphasized that the Supreme Court had refused for “the first time ever” to “remedy a constitutional violation because it thinks the task beyond judicial capabilities.” Kagan lamented that the “partisan gerrymanders in these cases deprived citizens of the most fundamental of their constitutional rights.” The gerrymanders “debased and dishonored our democracy, turning upside-down the core American idea that all governmental power derives from the people.” “In giving such gerrymanders a pass from judicial review,” she concluded, “the majority goes tragically wrong...”

Similar to how Roberts' conservative court dismantled key enforcements of the Voting Rights Acts - where Roberts and Scalia and the others no longer saw racism and allowed racist states to start suppressing ethnic and young voters - this Court refuses to see how one party - their own Republicans - repeatedly abuse the maps to shape Congressional districts in ways to guarantee virtual strangleholds on enough districts to keep Democrats from out of power.

The only way Democrats ever regain the House at this point is in massive voter uprisings against Republicans' growing extremist agendas. And the only response Republicans will have to that is to gerrymander and cheat even more.

Every Red State where Republicans dominate the state legislatures - like here in Florida - will essentially double-down in their attempt to reduce the odds of Democrats winning or maintaining enough districts to do anything the voters actually want. States where there are slim Democratic voting majorities but have overwhelming Republican elected officials, mocking their own residents needs.

I wrote about this before: The Republicans today rule in the minority, ignoring the majority when it comes to better wages, better schools, better environment, safer gun laws, stronger social aid...

Neither democracies nor republics can live without the accountability elected leaders owe their citizenry.

Right now, the only proper, the only SANE response relies on 108 million Americans who currently refuse to register to vote, either from apathy or fear.

The way gerrymandering works is through Republicans exploiting population gaps between dense urban/suburban areas - that lean liberal - and rural ones - that lean conservative - by packing most liberal (Dem) voters into one tight district and then spreading out shards of liberal voters into five or seven spread-out districts ranging across ten counties where the registered votes are few and far between.

They can get away with this because there are large enough percentages of the states' populations that are unregistered to vote (but could), so they can gauge where that 30-40 percent of non-voters are and plop them into those wide-ranging districts where they can be counted on to never show up.

So here's the deal, Americans. All 108 million of you need to register to vote, right now. Granted, under normal circumstances I'd suggest registering all as Democrats, but I dread that the GOP mapmakers will create algorithms that will just shove all those Dem voters into overloaded singular districts and leave eight districts sparsely GOP. Instead, I'll suggest mixing it up a bit, some of you register as Dems and the rest of you register as No-Party-Affiliate. Being a NPA should drive those computer modelling software crazy, because they can't determine that you're friend or foe. If a serious plurality of voters were No-Party, the GOP can't rely on creating "safe" districts out of you and run the risk of allowing their more extreme candidates alienating enough NPA voters to lose those districts.

The only way to defeat gerrymanders is through voters, lots of us, dedicated to the republic (not Republicans) and willing to overwhelm EVERY district with angry, disaffected no-party votes.

I need to hear from you 108 million by the end of July.

Get registered to vote.

Get ready to vote every Republican out of their goddamned gerrymandered seats.

The United States needs you.

What Florida Republicans Want: No More Voters

If we return our attention to the state level, we'll note that the Republicans have decided to give up on the people and take more power unto themselves.

For example: Passing legislation to make it harder for Florida voters to pass their own amendments. Via Lawrence Mower at the Tampa Bay Times:

 Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday approved legislation that would crack down on citizen petitions, a move that is likely to quash future ballot initiatives disliked by Republican lawmakers and corporate donors.

The bill, which takes effect before the 2020 election, makes it drastically harder to collect enough signatures to make it onto voters’ ballots.

And it will solidify Republican control in Tallahassee by eliminating one of the last threats to their power: the ballot box...

The Republicans have garnered political control of the Sunshine State ever since the demographic/party shifts that changed everything in the 1990s. After the last elected Democratic governor in Lawton Chiles passed away, everything went to the GOP. Even though a solid majority of voters remain Democratic... even as the voter shifts of the last ten years away from Far Right dogma are causing cracks in GOP domination.

The clearest sign of those cracks was the Amendment referendum process. Unable to break the GOP's control of the legislature via gerrymandering, the center-left population have resorted to petition-driven referendums to create State Constitutional Amendments - like anti-gerrymander rules, medical marijuana, funding for clean water and wetlands protection, classroom size limits to stop overcrowding poorer schools - that the conservative legislators can't ignore (well, actually they do, but it stops them from passing laws that would hew further Right Wing). Back to Mower:

What the legislation is sure to do, however, is stifle the last area outside of statewide Republican control in Florida.

Republicans have dominated the Legislature, Cabinet and governor’s mansion for the last 20 years, and every member of the state Supreme Court has now been appointed by Republicans.

But liberal groups and others have seen some success getting their priorities into law by proposing amendments to the state Constitution.

Over the last several years, at least 60 percent of voters have changed the Constitution to require the Legislature adopt fair voter districts, allow medical marijuana, protect environmental lands and restore the right to vote for felons.

And more amendments are on the way — or were on the way before DeSantis signed the bill Friday...

Republicans have fought every measure that a supermajority of Florida voters supported - which has to include a sizable number of fellow Republicans - because they don't fit their agenda of tax cuts, social aid cuts, school funding cuts, and aggressive land development for their rich construction buddies.

Referendums proposed for the coming 2020 ballot included a Minimum Wage ballot to fight the 20-year-plus stagnation of wages for every non-CEO worker, an "Energy Choice" option to break the monopolistic practices of the regional utilities, a statewide ban on military-grade assault rifles commonly used in mass shootings, a separate Universal Background Check amendment, an Open Primary system similar to California's that had all parties as a primary choice (meaning a district could have TWO Republicans in the final election or TWO Democrats in the final, meaning the extremists don't have safe seats either way), a Medicaid Expansion (which the state GOP definitely doesn't want to do), and Taco Trucks On Every Corner okay I made that last one up, but the rest of them are real. Follow that link to Ballotpedia to see more.

Those are issues that matter to the voting public, and things that a supermajority - 60 percent of voters - might want the state government to do.

But none of them are things the Florida Republicans want. They openly refuse to pass laws supporting ANY of that already, because each one offends a lobby group they rely on for campaign funding and future cushy no-show jobs.

They're also terrified of some of the election reform amendments that could pass that would break the Minority Rule they now inflict on the state. Florida Republicans rule without accountability, refusing to answer to the cries of local residents screaming for financial aid to cover feeding their kids and paying for schools and keeping roofs over their heads. The state GOP doesn't want to do anything about regional ecological disasters like toxic algae that are clearly man-made from Big Sugar and overdevelopment consuming our wetlands. 

You see, Florida Republicans are making too much money off of all that. So rather than do what the majority (most Florida residents) wants - clean water, safe schools, healthy families - the state GOP will indulge the minority's (the Obscenely Rich) whims.

What Florida Republicans want is for Florida Voters to sit down and shut up, FOREVER.

This should be as obvious a sign to my fellow Floridians why we needed to stop voting Republican the last eleven years I've been screaming that, and why we all need to stop NOW on voting Republican ever again. Our rights are getting bled dry, one cut at a time, while Republicans feast on our bones and keep us caged. As of today, the only power we have left is the power to VOTE EVERY REPUBLICAN OUT OF OFFICE. For the LOVE of GOD and HUMANITY, that's the one thing WE NEED TO DO.

Grand Theft Elections

Update: (Not again! Every time it gets busy at work, I miss getting added to the daily Mike's Blog Round-Up at Crooksandliars.com! Sigh. Thank you this time to Frances Langum of the Professional Left podcasts!)

It used to be, not even that long ago, that the political parties showed at least some deference some respect to how the voters made up their minds each election cycle.

But something changed with the Republican Party. Whatever it's been that has driven that party further to the Right on issues, it's also driven them to a point where they won't even give Democrats a modicum of respect when the voters side with Dems.

We've seen it at the national level, when the Republicans dismissed and belittled Bill Clinton's Presidency, even pursuing any hint of scandal to find a way to impeach him out of office. We've seen it from Day One of Obama's entire tenure - with a plan of obstruction and denial on a scale never before seen - where they even denied Obama was an honest-to-God American.

And now we're seeing it at the state level. In situations where the voters have put a Democrat into the governor's office (or other elective executive offices like the Attorney General in Michigan), the Republican-controlled legislatures are holding "lame duck" sessions passing extremist laws taking away much of those offices' power or authority to do ANYTHING.

We saw it last elections in 2016 when North Carolina's GOP legislature decided to kneecap the incoming Democratic governor there (via Tara Golshan at Vox.com):

Within 48 hours, on a late December night in 2016, the Republican-controlled state legislature passed a series of bills that pulled Cooper’s ability to make key cabinet appointments without their approval, drastically cut the size of Cooper’s administration, and changed the Board of Elections so that Republicans would control it in election years. They ensured lawsuits had to first go through the Republican-controlled appeals court, before the Democratic-majority state Supreme Court.

Democrats — who thought of Cooper’s victory as one of the few bright spots in an otherwise devastating year for the party — were blindsided...

It doesn't matter if the North Carolina Dems have fought every twisted GOP law in the courts. It's caused just enough delay and confusion to where Governor Cooper has achieved little in office. A perfect example the state Leges in Michigan and Wisconsin are following with great relish.

Worse, the Republican legislatures are insulting the voters directly. Voter referendums that went against GOP dogma - like raising the minimum wage, or opening up voter registration to make it easier to vote - are being blatantly ignored, sabotaged, and overwritten.

To note what is happening in Michigan (via Nancy LeTourneau in Washington Monthly but linking to Paul Waldman in the WaPo ):

Republicans are responding to a Democratic sweep of statewide offices by giving the legislature the ability to overrule the attorney general on state lawsuits and take authority over campaign finance regulation away from the secretary of state. They are also considering a bill to cut off voter registration 14 days before every election, in effect overruling a same-day registration initiative voters just passed...

...Michigan activists had organized to get enough signatures to put a couple of items on the ballot: an increase in the minimum wage and paid sick leave for all workers. If those initiatives had been approved by voters, a two-thirds majority in the legislature would be needed to amend them.

In September, both of those measures were passed, exactly as written, by the state legislature, ensuring they would be removed from the ballot. Over the last week, however, Republican legislators have amended them via a simple majority vote...

The Republicans knew those referendum items were too popular, so they staged a fake-out to get them removed from the ballot and then when all was safe rewrote everything so that the voters would get screwed.

This is not governance. This is bullying.

If we can go back to Golshan at Vox:

“North Carolina set a precedent in playing a kind of political hardball that we haven’t seen in other places,” Rick Hasen, an election law scholar with the University of California Irvine, said. “Does it spiral out of control? This has been more asymmetric with Republicans, but I don’t think it would always stay that way...”

In Wisconsin, some of these proposals passed on Wednesday, and Republican Gov. Scott Walker said he would sign them into law. In all, they would limit Evers’s power to change policies around welfare, health care, and economic development, cut down early voting, and allow the Republican-led legislature to undermine the attorney general, giving them the power to block his decision to remove Wisconsin from federal lawsuits.

“Power-hungry politicians rushed through sweeping changes to our laws to expand their own power and override the will of the people of Wisconsin who asked for change on November 6th,” Evers said in a statement.

In Michigan, a Republican proposal would guarantee the GOP-controlled legislature the right to intervene in any legal battles involving state laws that the attorney general may be reluctant to defend, like restrictions for same-sex couples looking to adopt...

This isn’t normal. There’s a basic understanding in a democracy that when one party wins, they have won.

But Republicans across the country are explicitly rejecting election outcomes. In Wisconsin, the Republican state House Speaker Rep. Robin Vos said the reforms were necessary because otherwise, he said, “we are going to have a very liberal governor who is going to enact policies that are in direct contrast to what many of us believe in.”

These legislatures are turning to extremes, and before long those extremes can become the new norm.

“It’s a further devolution of norms of democracy, where the losers accept the results of an election and move on,” Hasen said. “This is about polarization generally, and a break down of political norms...”

Back to LeTourneau:

Over the last few years, we’ve witnessed many examples of how Republicans have been willing to spit in the face of our democratic principles to maintain their power. But this one should probably take its place at the top of the list. Could it be any more obvious that Republicans have nothing but contempt for the voting public? If this little charade is allowed to stand, what it will take to wake people up to that reality?

This has been one of the reasons why I'd been screaming STOP VOTING REPUBLICAN for the longest time. Republicans are not concerned with leading or responding to the people's will: Republicans want power and more of it, and Republicans want their tax-cut and patriarchal Utopia at all costs. They are willing to bend and break every rule to keep in power even when the majority of Americans are telling them NO We Do Not Trust You With That Anymore.

This is how we've gotten to Minority Rule of an increasingly shrinking and dying party unwilling to accept their losses when they happen and rebuild into a more responsive party.

It would be pretty to think that the growing Majority of Voters will push back, stop voting Republican, drive them out of office. But the bastards are exploiting their ungodly advantage of Gerrymandering to rig the votes, to give them enough seats in the Legislatures to keep rigging more votes and more tricks and more obstruction to favor them.

We're not going to see a truly representative state where the Republicans hold sway. They can't afford to let that happen. We are not going to see any salvation until Gerrymandering itself is wiped out of our electoral process once and for all.

Until then, every election is under threat of thievery by the GOP.

Gods help us.

The Sins of Minority Party Rule (w/ Update)

It should be noted that a majority of Americans do not support trump and his lackeys on their horrific child kidnapping plan along the U.S. border. And yet, Congress is dragging its collective feet on the matter because both the House and the Senate are under Republican control, and the Republicans are profiting from this overt racism.

It should be noted that a majority of Americans do not support massive tax cuts for the rich, yet the Republicans controlling Congress passed a massive tax cut bill last year that only profits the rich and has done NOTHING for our nation's middle-income and working classes. Worse, they are poised to pass another deep tax cut bill for the upcoming 2019 budget.

It should be noted that a majority of Americans want affordable health care, yet the Republican Party in charge of everything keeps pursuing a Kill Obamacare agenda that hurts everyone but plays to their Obama-hating voting base.

It should be noted that a majority of Americans are Independent voters but tend to (barely) vote Democratic. But the Republicans control much of the federal government and a majority of state legislatures/governors, meaning that much of the legislation being passed aren't what the majority of voters wants or needs.

To take notes from Steve M. over at No More Mister Nice Blog:

ONCE AGAIN, IT'S REPUBLICANS WHO ARE OUT OF STEP WITH THE REST OF AMERICA

CNN:
Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the Trump administration's practice of taking undocumented immigrant children from their families and putting them in government facilities on US borders, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS. Only 28% approve. But among Republicans, there is majority support for the policy....

Quinnipiac:
American voters oppose 66 - 27 percent the policy of separating children and parents when families illegally cross the border into America, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.
Republican voters support the separation policy 55 - 35 percent, the only listed party, gender, education, age or racial group to support it...

I say this all the time: America is not primarily a conservative heartland that's besieged by a left-leaning minority living on the coasts and using elite status to tyrannize the majority. The major fault line in this country is between Republicans and everyone else in America. I'm not saying that this is a liberal country (although it is on a number of issues), but it is not a conservative country. Republican dominance of our government at the federal and state levels is largely an artifact of electoral gamesmanship and a highly effective conservative propaganda machine that successfully demonizes Democrats; it doesn't reflect majority support for Republican policies...

What's happening here is what's called Minority Party Rule. It's not about political rule of an ethnic or religious minority - although in some nations like Syria and Iraq it worked out that way - it's about political rule by a group that does not reflect the political will of the majority.

John Cole over at Balloon Juice once brought up a desire to talk about Minority Party Rule in America, although I haven't seen a thorough article posted yet. It's a complex argument to make and hard to stay focused on because the rage of the idiocy of it all takes over and you have to step away for an hour before continuing (this has been a blog post months in the writing)

Minority Party Rule in the United States is a headache because our electoral system is based on Winner-Take-All: whoever gets the most votes - even if it's not a majority of votes - just wins that seat. As a result in certain elections where a spoiler third candidate runs - Perot in 1992 and 1996 for the Presidency, the gubernatorial elections that left Maine with unpopular LePage - a candidate the majority of voters didn't want can end up winning.

The Presidential election process takes on an extra layer of the Electoral College where it's not who wins the overall popular votes but who wins enough states (with their Electoral values). This was how trump - garnering only 42 percent of the popular vote below Hillary Clinton's 45 percent - stole the presidency (well that and Russian sabotage, but that's a separate rage point).

If we witness Minority Party Rule overseas, it's usually in the form of dictatorships where the ethnic or religious minority had been granted undue control of the nation or had played factions among the majority against themselves. Those nations tend to have bad histories of human rights abuses and civil wars because the majority population flares up against the minority that rules through force and corruption.

Minority Party Rule itself isn't always a problem: Most parliamentary systems are multi-party and rarely does a majority party gain enough seats to rule without hassle. Most elections won by a plurality forces the large parties to form coalitions to create a government stable enough to rule until the next set election (some coalitions do fall apart over certain issues, in which case the government falls and emergency elections kick in). The system still is responsive enough to react to crises that should force the right leadership into making the right coalitions to keep things working.

But in the system we have - a Federal Republic (not an actual democracy) of checks and balances -
it's harder to hold a government accountable when ONE party holds the key to ALL branches of government the way the Republicans currently control the Legislative, Executive, and Judiciary. Especially when that control came not due to the majority supporting it but due to rigging and gaming the electoral process.

When you look at the current leadership in DC, you'll see a Republican Party led by the likes of Ryan, McConnell and trump who all know they do NOT need to answer to the majority - they need to placate their minority base - and so they govern as they please, even in the face of polling numbers that mark them as some of the most unpopular life forms in modern memory. All they have to do is stoke their base to turnout for the midterms, all they have to do is keep their deep-pocket funders rolling in their tax-free profits, and let gerrymandering and voter suppression do the rest.

The only thing holding a Minority Rule Party like that accountable is The Reality-Based World. Bad governance leads to mistakes, which leads to disasters, which leads to outrage and angry majority voters who finally get sick of it all and try their best to flip the bad actors out of power.

Sad thing about that is, by the time those disasters take place - think the Iraqi Occupation, think Katrina, think the CDO Housing Subprime Bubble - the damage has been done. Innocent people have suffered, honest lives lost.

And then, damn us all, the SOBs responsible for all that avoid criminal accountability and regain the chance to lie and bully and steal their way back into power again.

Which is why we're facing a new round of disasters - Say hello to the Republicans trying to gut healthcare and Social Security! Say hello to trump's Baby Jails for immigrant toddlers! Say hello to trade wars against Canada and our FORMER Euro allies! - that will consume this nation in darkness, debt, and despair.

We can't keep playing this back-and-forth of sane Democratic MAJORITY leadership and insane Republican MINORITY misrule.

We really can't.

FOR THE LOVE OF GOD STOP VOTING REPUBLICAN. Fight back against gerrymandering. Get everyone you know registered to vote and balloting this midterms. It matters. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, OUR NATION AND OUR CHILDREN MATTER.

(Update 6/30/18): I still seem to be writing this out ahead of the Beltway curve. Dana Milbank at Washington Post is thinking along the same lines:

Republicans have been defying gravity for some time. As New York magazine’s Jonathan Chait reminds us in a smart piece, they lost the popular vote in six of the last seven presidential elections. Electoral college models show Republicans could plausibly continue to win the White House without popular majorities.

Because of partisan gerrymandering and other factors, Democrats could win by eight percentage points and still not gain control of the House, one study found. And the two-senators-per-state system (which awards people in Republican Wyoming 70 times more voting power than people in Democratic California) gives a big advantage to rural, Republican states...

The backlash is coming. It is the deserved consequence of minority-rule government protecting the rich over everybody else, corporations over workers, whites over nonwhites and despots over democracies. It will explode, God willing, at the ballot box and not in the streets...

I dread it will explode, not from the majority fighting to take their power back but from the minority of Angry White Guys terrified of losing power they don't deserve.

Killing the Gerrymander: 2018 With the Best News Yet

Again, not a huge fan of the gerrymander.

Which is why the latest news out of North Carolina heartens me. Per David A Graham at The Atlantic:

Federal judges have yet again struck down North Carolina’s congressional districts as an unconstitutional gerrymander, dealing Republicans a blow and throwing the state’s maps into chaos just months before a pivotal midterm election.

A three-judge panel, including one circuit-court judge and two district-court judges, ruled Tuesday evening that the Old North State’s redistricting plan relied too heavily on partisan affiliation in drawing constituencies, violating citizens’ rights under the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause, the First Amendment, and Article I of the Constitution. The decision is the first time a federal court has ever struck down a redistricting plan as a partisan gerrymander...

As Graham notes, there are two other gerrymander cases on similar arguments in other courts, so we'll likely have to wait for this to get to the Supreme Court (where it could well die for partisan reasons /headdesk).

But this ruling is a huge fcking deal because unlike previous gerrymandering rulings - which focused on minority representation - this focused on Party representation: Between the difference of Republican, Democrat, and Independent/smaller Third parties. As Graham noted, earlier gerrymandering efforts based on race was shot down by the courts, so the Republican-controlled North Carolina state legislature "proudly used partisanship as their primary criterion in drawing new maps." They intentionally drew state and congressional districts to serve Republican needs:

“I acknowledge freely that this would be a political gerrymander, which is not against the law,” said Representative David Lewis, the chair of the state House redistricting committee. He also said, “I think electing Republicans is better than electing Democrats. So I drew this map to help foster what I think is better for the country.” And he suggested the committee draw maps that would produce 10 Republican and three Democratic U.S. House districts, on the basis that he didn’t think it would be possible to come up with an 11-2 map...

The court came back and told Lewis and the other Republicans that guess what IT WAS AGAINST THE LAW:

Common Cause and the League of Women Voters both challenged the law, and their two suits were consolidated into one. The plaintiffs argued that the plan violated the Equal Protection Clause, because it discriminated against non-Republican voters; the First Amendment, because it discriminated against voters based on previous political expression; and Article I, because it interfered with the right of the people to elect their representatives...

“A partisan gerrymander that is intended to and likely has the effect of entrenching a political party in power undermines the ability of voters to effect change when they see legislative action as infringing on their rights,” Judge James Wynn, an Obama appointee, wrote for the court. “We agree with Plaintiffs that a wealth of evidence proves the General Assembly’s intent to ‘subordinate’ the interests of non-Republican voters and ‘entrench’ Republican domination of the state’s congressional delegation...”

Wynn was joined in full by Judge William Britt, a Carter appointee, and in part by Judge William Osteen Jr., a George W. Bush appointee who accepted the Equal Protection and Article I arguments but rejected the plaintiffs’ First Amendment claim...

This last bit is important. The judges did not split on two of the three arguments, meaning those arguments can work at the higher appellate (and Supreme Court) levels. The First Amendment argument is open to interpretation, but the Equal Protection and Article I arguments are etched deep into the legal underpinnings of voters' rights.

This partisan gerrymandering on the part of Republicans - in fairness, Democrats have been doing this in states like Illinois as well - is one of the big reasons why we're struggling against a federal government where the Party in power does not actually represent the majority of voters. Most Americans vote Democratic: However, the nature of geography and demographics (which is affected by gerrymandering) gave Republicans more seats in Congress.

If we can get rid of gerrymandering - if we can as a nation make it so that the House AND the Senate reflect the actual voter turnout and the issues they want resolved - we should get a Legislative branch of the federal government that genuinely reflects - and serves - the nation's interests. Only the geographic limitations - on the Senate, where small states are disproportionately represented - would be a problem from that point.

We'd still have elected officials who actually earned their electoral wins, not based on "safe" districts carved out to decimate the opposing party(ies).

Here's hoping.

Killing the Gerrymander With Math: Yes, the Geeks WILL SAVE DEMOCRACY...

(Update: hello again, Crooks and Liars readers! Thanks for linking in via Mike's Blog Round-up, and thank you again Batocchio! P.S. please check out the rest of this blog, including my Writings tab and Links tab above. P.S.S.: I had nothing to do with the card-reading at last night's Oscars. I was rooting for Rogue One all the way...)

Saw this on Twitter, jumped into the article at the Chronicle of Higher Education:

Meet the Math Professor Who’s Fighting Gerrymandering With Geometry

And we're not talking about the polyhedral dice used in Dungeons & Dragons, oh no. Although rolling a d20 for critical would really make Killing the Gerrymander SOOOOOOOO WORTH IT.

Moon Duchin is an associate professor of math and director of the Science, Technology and Society program at Tufts. She realized last year that some of her research about metric geometry could be applied to gerrymandering — the practice of manipulating the shape of electoral districts to benefit a specific party, which is widely seen as a major contributor to government dysfunction.

At first, she says, her plans were straightforward and research-oriented — "to put together a team to do some modeling and then maybe consult with state redistricting commissions." But then she got more creative. "I became convinced that it’s probably more effective to try to help train a big new generation of expert witnesses who know the math side pretty well," she says...

Due to the Supreme Court ruling Selby County v Holder that gutted the district enforcements of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, there's been an uptick in court cases fighting the extreme gerrymandering that's kicked in over the last 10 20 years.

What Duchin is attempting to do is clear up one of the more confusing elements of congressional districting: what the actual shape of the district should be:

(Duchin direct quote from interview) In redistricting, one of the principles that’s taken seriously by courts is that districts should be compact. The U.S. Constitution does not say that, but many state constitutions do, and it’s taken as a kind of general principle of how districts ought to look.

But nobody knows exactly what compactness means. People just have the idea that it means the shape shouldn’t be too weird, shouldn’t be too eccentric; it should be a kind of reasonable shape. Lots of people have taken a swing at that over the years. Which definition you choose actually has stakes. It changes what maps are acceptable and what maps aren’t. If you look at the Supreme Court history, what you’ll see is that a lot of times, especially in the ’90s, the court would say, Look, some shapes are obviously too bizarre but we don’t know how to describe the cutoff. How bizarre is too bizarre? We don’t know; that sounds hard...

...I was surprised to see that even though there were different mathematical attempts at a definition, you don’t ever see mathematicians testifying in court about it. So our first aim was to think like mathematicians about compactness and look at all the definitions that already exist, and compare them and try to prove theorems about the relationships between the definitions.

What courts have been looking for is one definition of compactness that they can understand, that we can compute, and that they can use as a kind of go-to standard. I don’t have any illusions that we’re going to settle that debate forever, but I think we can make a contribution to the debate...

From what I'm getting from the interview, the goal of Duchin's efforts seems to be getting rid of some of the more egregious spread-out districts, of trying to get more districts placed in actual population density centers like major cities/metro areas, rather than carved out as pieces to the edges of large sprawling districts made up of underpopulated rural zones (look at how cities like San Antonio and Orlando are divided between 4-5 different districts without a single district actually dedicated to that metro).

As long as this achieves a viable goal: Getting Congressional districts set to places where people actually live, and fully reflective of the population percentages between party identifications. I'm tired of the Republicans representing about 45 percent of the people and yet controlling 60 percent of the districts...