The Fraying Far Right in Europe, A Potential Shift Away from Fascism as Hungary Ousts Orban

If there's any good news for western liberal-democratic systems, it's that elections still matter. Hungary just held a parliamentary vote with huge turnout and even bigger global ramifications (via NPR):

Hungarian voters turned out in the greatest numbers since the fall of communism in the 1990s to turn away from Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party, with exit polls indicating possible "super-majority" victory for Péter Magyar's Tisza movement. The movement rallied various opposition forces around the themes of fighting corruption and re-integrating the European mainstream. 

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán congratulated Magyar in a concession speech less than three hours after polls closed. Ballots continue to be counted but the trend suggests a possible two-thirds majority for Magyar and his Tisza movement. If that happens, he would be able to undo constitutional changes made by Orbán to weaken the independence of the judiciary and entrench the Fidesz party's control of political life.

I don't blog much about Orban, but he's been a major figure in the anti-democratic movement across most of the western world since the 2010s. As part of a "populist nationalist" ideology, Orban has really been a dictator in all but name: shutting down free speech and political opposition within Hungary, rewriting laws to keep himself and his party in power, pushing an anti-immigrant agenda that openly relied on racism, and basically providing a blueprint to every other Far Right autocrat seeking absolute rule (SEE trump, Bolsonaro, trump again, wannabe rules like Le Pen and Farage, and more trump).

Orban has been held as a model for success among the Far Right factions across most of what we'd call the western world. As Isaac Chotiner documented in 2021 at New Yorker:

Still, over the past decade, Orbán has become something of a hero to conservatives throughout Europe, and has piqued the interest of the American right wing as well. Last week, Tucker Carlson visited Hungary and, over dinner, lauded the Prime Minister as someone that the West could learn from. On Sunday, in the Times, the conservative columnist Ross Douthat explained some of Orbán’s appeal. “It’s not just his anti-immigration stance or his moral traditionalism,” Douthat wrote. “It’s that his interventions in Hungarian cultural life, the attacks on liberal academic centers and the spending on conservative ideological projects, are seen as examples of how political power might curb progressivism’s influence...”

The likes of Seb Gorka has been pushing the US government under trump to pursue a partisan hunt against "left-wing terrorism" like Antifa (which is, by the by, Anti-Fascism something Gorka and other wingnuts don't want you to realize) based exactly on how Orban attacked center-left and far left parties in Hungary. Orban's efforts to stifle his nation's media - through intimidation and allies buying up outlets - mirror the same efforts happening here in the United States.

Tied up into all this is how tied up all of these nationalist movements are to each other: Not just moral support but also money and influence backing each other's attempts to win elections so that the Far Right can control more nations to fulfill a global agenda. Orban is - well, was - a keystone among the other Far Right factions; ironically trying to seize control by promoting isolationist pro-nativism hatreds within their own nations, using international support to do so.

For Orban to fall, and to fall so openly and decisively (losing by double-digits!) even after rigging the electoral system wtih gerrymandering - is a harsh rebuke to the Far Right ideologues convinced they were an unstoppable juggernaut across the globe. Making it harsher - well, funnier to the rest of us - is how trump and his administration panicked over how poorly Orban was doing in the polls leading up to the election, to where JD Vance visited multiple times in person to campaign for Orban and where trump openly tried to bribe Hungarians with promises of boosting their economy.

The hilarious thing is that Orban's polling sank lower after Vance's visit and after trump's promises, proving that Europeans even in conservative-leaning nations really HATE trump.

There's also the reality that a lot of Hungarians got tired of inept corrupt rule by an inept corrupt autocrat. Under Orban, their economy suffers to high inflation and worsening conditions. For all of Orban's railing against migrants, refugees, dread Others, and liberals; after 16 years the people understand the problem has been Orban and his cronies all along.

Orban's loss is a sign that for all their efforts to rig the game in their countries, the other Far Right parties and factions across Europe have no guarantee of winning and holding onto power. Whatever appeal the nationalist/populist/racist groups offer to the angrier sections of their populations, they cannot expect inevitability or winning over any moderates that modern-day fascists can be effective if they control high office.

Orban's loss is also a huge blow to Putin: the Hungarian prime minister had been the Russian dictator's most useful ally puppet in European affairs. Hungary's position within both the EU and NATO gave Orban the means to disrupt and sabotage those organizations to serve Putin's needs. In the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, Orban routinely denied stronger EU / NATO support for Ukraine and even withheld funds - literally stealing it in a heist - Ukraine was supposed to get for their war effort.

The incoming prime minister, Peter Magyar, hasn't openly committed to supporting Ukraine in full - I saw a social media post he was willing to return the stolen funds, but I can't verify it - but he does want closer relations to the rest of the EU (in order to fix Hungary's failing economy), which should mean getting on the rest of Europe's good side. Magyar shouldn't be fully obstructionist the way Orban was. 

This election ousting Orban is - simply put - a huge punch in the face to fascists and dictators across the globe.

This is why turnout matters, Americans.

Fun times, people.

Quick update: Europeans really have a knack for partying when authoritarian/totalitarian regimes fall:

went to check out the techno rave outside Parliament and I don't think I have the data allowance to share a video from it but let me tell you: there sure is a techno rave outside Parliament right now, celebrating Orban getting ousted

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— Marie Le Conte (@youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com) April 12, 2026 at 3:57 PM

The Strait To Sequel

Over the weekend, someone went begging to the other major powers to help him out of a disaster of his own making (from Sam Metz, Will Weissert, Julia Frankel, and Cara Anna at AP News):

President Donald Trump said Sunday that he has demanded about seven countries send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, but his appeals have brought no commitments as oil prices soar during the Iran war.

The president declined to name the countries heavily reliant on Middle East crude that the administration is negotiating with to join a coalition to police the waterway where about one-fifth of the world’s traded oil normally flows.

“I’m demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory, because it is their own territory,” Trump said about the strait, claiming the shipping channel is not something the United States needs because of its own access to oil. Trump spoke while answering reporters’ questions as he flew back to Washington from Florida aboard Air Force One.

The gist is that after weeks of crowing how victorious he's been blowing up Iran, his handlers have finally gotten him to understand that angering Iran to the point of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz was a really bad idea.

If you're wondering if any of those nations have answered back by now, I think Germany has spelled out what the response is going to be like (via Ellen Mitchell at The Hill):

Germany’s defense minister on Monday rebuffed calls from U.S. President Trump to send ships to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, telling reporters “this is not our war.”

Trump has called on allies, including those in NATO, for military ​support to keep the vital shipping route open. Iran has effectively closed the strait for the past two weeks in response to the U.S.-Israeli war on Tehran, using missiles, drones and mines to attack oil tankers trying to get through.

“What does … Donald Trump expect a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to ​do in the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful U.S. Navy cannot do?” Boris Pistorius ⁠said in Berlin, as reported by Reuters. “This is not our war, we have not started it.”

Ever the bully, trump never understood that a bully's victims will not come to that bully's aid when he's getting punched in the face. Having mocked and belittled and threatened our NATO allies - and pretty much 80 percent of the rest of the planet - trump has no peace offering to give them. 

This isn't post-9/11, when most of Western civilization came to our nation's aid to stamp out Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan (and more reluctantly invade Iraq over WMD lies and deception). trump and his lackeys - Rubio and whomever hasn't been fired from the State Department yet - may want other nations to sacrifice their own people and resources to rescue trump from this debacle, but they don't have the genuine skills of diplomacy - compromise, long-term planning, honesty, commitment to shared objectives - to recover from this.

The world may be facing economic turmoil if oil prices keep going up, but all of the other nations seem willing to suffer the pain momentarily if it means trump and the chickenhawk Far Right get humiliated and broken by their own idiocy and hubris.

An entire Far Right ideology of toxic masculinity is getting punched in the face right now. It's the only good news we have in all this death and fire.

Addendum: I hope this BlueSky skeet stays up. Thank you Dr. SkySkull!

Europeans when being asked to unblock the strait of Hormuz

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— Dr. SkySkull (@drskyskull.bsky.social) March 16, 2026 at 2:43 PM

A Wounded Narcissist Leading Us to Ruin

If there's any solid evidence that the United States as a nation, as a global power, as a beacon of political stability is no more, the recent letter from donald trump to Norway's prime minister should be the big fucking clue we've finally gone over the cliffs (via Robbie Griffiths at NPR): 

President Trump says his controversial push for U.S. control of Greenland comes after he failed to win the Nobel Peace Prize last year, adding he no longer feels obliged to think only of peace.

In a message to Norway's prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre on Sunday night, Trump criticized the European country for not giving him the prize.

"Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America," Trump said in the message.

"The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland," Trump added. The message was reported by PBS NewsHour, and was later confirmed by Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in a statement.

Gahr Støre said he received the message on Sunday in response to a text he and Finland's President Alexander Stubb had sent to Trump, in which they had conveyed opposition to Trump's proposed tariff increases on eight European countries over the recent Greenland dispute.

There are images floating around of a physical letter, but I fear they are mock-ups instead of the real thing so I'm not going to post it here. But given how too many reputable news outlets have verified the contents of that letter, we should expect the messaging is correct... and clear.

For all of trump's bluster that Greenland is necessary for America's national security, the truth is that trump wants Greenland to satisfy his own broken ego. The truth is that the current occupant of the White House - I refuse to identify him otherwise - is a bratty five-year-old throwing a tantrum and lashing out in anger towards everyone he feels has insulted him.

As Anne Applebaum clarifies at the Atlantic:

One could observe many things about this document. One is the childish grammar, including the strange capitalizations (“Complete and Total Control”). Another is the loose grasp of history. Donald Trump did not end eight wars. Greenland has been Danish territory for centuries. Its residents are Danish citizens who vote in Danish elections. There are many “written documents” establishing Danish sovereignty in Greenland, including some signed by the United States. In his second term, Trump has done nothing for NATO—an organization that the U.S. created and theoretically leads, and that has only ever been used in defense of American interests. If the European members of NATO have begun spending more on their own defense (budgets to which the U.S. never contributed), that’s because of the threat they feel from Russia.

Yet what matters isn’t the specific phrases, but the overall message: Donald Trump now genuinely lives in a different reality, one in which neither grammar nor history nor the normal rules of human interaction now affect him. Also, he really is maniacally, unhealthily obsessive about the Nobel Prize. The Norwegian Nobel Committee, not the Norwegian government and certainly not the Danish government, determines the winner of that prize. Yet Trump now not only blames Norway for failing to give it to him, but is using it as a justification for an invasion of Greenland.

For the past year, American allies around the world have tried very hard to find a theory that explains Trump’s behavior. Isolationism, neo-imperialism, and patrimonialism are all words that have been thrown around. But in the end, the president himself defeats all attempts to describe a “Trump doctrine.” He is locked into a world of his own, determined to “win” every encounter, whether in an imaginary competition for the Nobel Peace Prize or a protest from the mother of small children objecting to his masked, armed paramilitary in Minneapolis. These contests matter more to him than any long-term strategy. And of course, the need to appear victorious matters much more than Americans’ prosperity and well-being...

This is nothing new, by the way. Any rational observer of trump's world-view since 2016 saw this kind of self-serving mania coming. I remember what Adam L. Silverman wrote back then, and how it applies now:

...More than that, however, is that the Trump Doctrine is really the animating force or theme of the entire Trump campaign. The other candidates had better treat Donald Trump fairly, the Republican National Committee better treat Donald Trump fairly, the Republican establishment better treat Donald Trump fairly, the media better treat Donald Trump fairly, the state level parties that handle the primaries and all the delegates chosen better treat Donald Trump fairly. And Donald Trump will make them treat him fairly! And the only candidate, nay the only person in America who can ensure that you are treated fairly is Donald Trump. And if he isn’t treated fairly or the US isn’t treated fairly, then he will get even...!

It's not that America gets treated fairly - by whatever measurement anyone would use - it's that TRUMP gets treated fairly. And trump's idea of fair treatment is "Give me everything you have and worship me like a god."

trump doesn't get a Nobel Peace Prize? he'll force the soccer organization FIFA to create a brand-new Peace Award in order to keep the planned 2026 World Cup in the U.S. going. Even if everyone else on the planet saw it as the ego-boosting it was and mocked the award. Try to get the actual award winner María Corina Machado to gift trump the physical award as though he won it? The Nobel committee will go public with the reminder that the Peace Prize once given cannot be traded away.

We've seen this ever since trump stormed the public stage back in the 1980s: Denied any public display of success, trump had / is / will lash out however he can.

And with the powers of the office at his disposal, lashing out is arguably the only sadistic enjoyment he can feel.

The problem with this kind of absolutist leadership - the sins of tyrants and mad kings - is that it alienates far too many allies our nation relies relied on to remain a superpower. trump and his handlers haven't really thought this through: trump's threats to tariff most of Europe can backlash with those nations pulling out their investments in US Bonds and other financial markers. We're seeing another drop in the value of the dollar. The calls to relocate the World Cup away from the United States are increasing.

Even if trump pulls back on the tariffs threat, if he does follow through on sending US armed forces to seize Greenland any time soon (gods help us, it might be this week depending on where these airborne troops go) it will not only trigger the collapse of NATO - which benefits only Putin - but also turn far too many nations against us at one time. The US had a hard enough time fighting a War on Terror on two fronts in Afghanistan and Iraq. Trigger this kind of war and we're counting at least eight nations - including the bordering Canada - cutting off our overseas bases, shutting down our logistic capabilities, and arguably going toe-to-toe on a battlefield in multiple locations.

The Far Right - and a lot of the Alpha Male wannabes in trump's world drooling at the fantasy of war - may think we have the world's greatest military and we can take all comers, but they're dragging the rest of the nation into a fight that most Americans - even other Republicans - don't want. Our military may be the best-trained, the best-supplied, the best period, but even we have limits on both manpower and resources. Fighting most of NATO - which may drag in Mexico and various South American nations already pissed at trump, and with the likelihood of our Asian allies like Japan and Philippines refusing to side with us - is not going to be easy.

Everything the United States did over the decades to rise to become a global superpower is getting demolished and firebombed into ash all because of one man's demented ego, this hollow man donald trump who struts upon the stage like an unsatisfied fool.

The only way this ends well is if someone in a position to do anything - a cowering Republican Congress, a military command structure wary of pulling a coup that would still harbinger an end to the constitutional order - steps up and forces trump to step down.

The odds of that happening are less than the odds that trump will drive us into a ruinous war.

Stay safe, everyone.

D-Day Anniversary, But Thinking of Ukraine

On this day, we remember the Allied troops - American, Canadian, British, French, other free nations who were there - who landed on the Normandy beaches to begin the Western counter-offensive against the Nazi horde.

Those landings were 79 years ago, but they remain fresh in our memories. The realization of the horrors of war, the sacrifices made, the honors gained and lives lost. 

They remain fresh because those struggles are repeating in Europe today, as Ukraine is now the battlefront against a Russian horde seeking to rebuild an empire under Putin at the expense of European stability.

We're thinking about D-Day as a great counter-offensive, reclaiming what the allies lost in 1940 when the German blitz overwhelmed the British and French armies to where the UK retreated at Dunkirk and the French government collapsed into Vichy appeasement. Ukraine now has to stage their counter-offensives after holding back the Russian blitz of 2022 that failed to reach Kyiv and collapsed against an earlier counterstrike in Kharkiv last September.

Everybody's been expecting the counter-offensive - especially the Russians - because Ukraine can't afford to stay on the defensive, and because the Russian attempts at offensives have sputtered at places like Kherson and Bakhmut. With Ukrainian forces receiving more armor and ammo and aid from NATO and US agreements - up to a level where they can fight back but not to where it would drive Putin to go nuclear - there has been this awaiting as the winter conditions - mud, mud, and too much mud, several of the things that hampered Russia's big invasion in February 2022 - gave way to better summer weather.

Well, it's June now. And there are signs that something has started up: Ukrainian hackers have been hitting Russia TV and media with deep-fakes to enrage/confuse the Russian citizenry, there's been front-line reports of tank battles, and there are ongoing strikes in the Belgorod region of Russian by pro-Ukrainian Russians who turned against Putin (by using Russians, Ukraine can plausibly deny they are invading Russia so that Putin can't escalate against them).

The biggest current news is how a key dam - which provided electricity and water to a nearby nuclear reactor (!) - was destroyed in the past 24 hours, as an apparent attempt by Russia to flood the river to delay/stall any Ukrainian crossings.

It is still too early to speculate, as Ukrainians are obviously keeping their lips zipped to prevent any tip-offs to Russians of where the serious fighting will start.

But it's coming soon. The hope is that it'll be similar to last Kharkiv: a stunning breakout against demoralized Russian soldiers lacking enough armor or ammo to fight back, that could clear major Ukrainian gains towards Crimea or Mariupol (two obvious objectives that if retaken would break Russia in ways Putin can't lie about or fix).

However, Russia's been preparing this long winter: They've dug anti-tank trenches, mined most of the battlefronts, and had held back on resources even as they expended men and weapons in Bakhmut to claim a propaganda victory (which they might not have won).

This won't be an easy fight for Ukraine. Wars never are.

But Eisenhower said it best in 1944 when he extorted Allied troops to victory:

Soldiers, Sailors, and Airmen of the Allied Expeditionary Force!

You are about to embark upon the Great Crusade, toward which we have striven these many months. The eyes of the world are upon you. The hope and prayers of liberty-loving people everywhere march with you. In company with our brave Allies and brothers-in-arms on other Fronts, you will bring about the destruction of the German war machine, the elimination of Nazi tyranny over the oppressed peoples of Europe, and security for ourselves in a free world.

Your task will not be an easy one. Your enemy is well trained, well equipped and battle-hardened. He will fight savagely.

But this is the year 1944! Much has happened since the Nazi triumphs of 1940-41. The United Nations have inflicted upon the Germans great defeats, in open battle, man-to-man. Our air offensive has seriously reduced their strength in the air and their capacity to wage war on the ground. Our Home Fronts have given us an overwhelming superiority in weapons and munitions of war, and placed at our disposal great reserves of trained fighting men. The tide has turned! The free men of the world are marching together to Victory!

I have full confidence in your courage, devotion to duty and skill in battle. We will accept nothing less than full Victory!

Good luck! And let us beseech the blessing of Almighty God upon this great and noble undertaking.

To the troops and citizenry of Ukraine. This speech is also meant for you in 2023, with Russians as the Nazis and NATO - all of Europe - having full confidence in your courage, devotion, and skill.

Good luck, truly. Come home as best you can, in victory and at peace.

Ukraine Advances, Russia Flees

With all of the nonstop media coverage of Queen Elizabeth's funeral kind of drowning out all the other news, we need to pay attention to the change of fortunes going on in Ukraine as the defenders are earning major gains in their counteroffensive to retake the eastern half from Russia. Brief report from Digby first: 

Ukrainian forces pushed deep into Russian-controlled territory Saturday, handing Kyiv some of the most strategically important towns and cities in the northeast of the country and delivering retreating Russian forces one of their biggest setbacks since the start of the war.

In a matter of days, Ukraine retook swaths of its Kharkiv region, where Russians had fought ferociously for months, spending lives and ammunition to take over cities, sometimes a building at a time.

In the weeks leading up to the offensive that Ukraine launched earlier this week, Kyiv’s forces used Western-made weapons, including High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or Himars, against Russian supply lines and front-line positions.

The growing success of Ukraine’s advance signals to Western backers the effectiveness of weapons the U.S. and Europe has given to Kyiv. It comes at a particularly critical time for Western powers, days after Moscow indefinitely suspended natural-gas flows to Europe, raising the prospect of energy rationing this winter.

Russia’s retreat from key cities is likely aimed at avoiding encirclement after Ukraine captured the town of Kupyansk, which sits on a rail and road hub, and severed the last artery that connected Russia with thousands of its front-line troops.

“It’s a complete collapse,” Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, said about the Russian pullout of forces between Kupyansk and Izyum. “In the battle of Donbas, they probably had more troops deployed there than anywhere and now they seem to be unable to hold anything.”

Essentially, all of Kharkiv region is under Ukrainian control. Reports swirl that some troops have reached the Russia border.

If we can refer to my guy in the sky at Balloon Juice, what Adam L Silverman has to say:

The Ukrainian military was incredibly busy today...

Also, the Russian military was busy too; running from the Ukrainian military...

Here’s the British MOD’s assessment for today. They did not post an updated map.

"Russian forces were likely taken by surprise... Ukrainian units are now threatening the town of Kupiansk; it's capture would be a significant blow to Russia because it sits on supply routes to the Donbas front line..."

Silverman's update was yesterday. Checking on Kupiansk today is that Ukrainians are fighting in the city. Control is not secure but they have to be disrupting Russia's efforts to keep their troops alive.

Speaking of those troops, nearly every report coming out this weekend was that Russia's ground forces surrendered or fled in a rout of epic proportions. The official statement coming out of Moscow is that their forces are "regrouping" but all the other reports are saying "running for their lives."

Social media is flush with frontline video clips of Ukrainians finding abandoned tanks and personnel carriers still in working condition. Troop morale was reportedly low before this counterattack: By all evidence Russian morale is flat out gone.

There is just trash everywhere, no policing of debris, etc. Yes, war is hell and all that, but if you are in a set position for a while you maintain your AO for a variety of reasons, including just maintaining basic discipline.

— John Cole (@Johngcole) September 11, 2022

Anyone who's been a solider, like Cole, will tell you discipline matters: It keeps you focused and on your game. It's a reality of war since the days of Sparta all the way through the Romans to the Revolutionary Army drilled by Von Steuben to the World Wars to today. Without that discipline, you're not an army.

From what I've read about the modern Russia army, it seems to have been lax about discipline because they relied on overwhelming numbers, advanced armor, artillery barrages out the wazoo, and bad weather to get them out of jams. They were riding on their reputations post-World War and on the fact they had relatively decent heavy armor to match the strength of Western (European/US) armor.

Their more recent invasions and incursions - including their seizing of Crimea back in 2014 when Ukraine rose up to overthrow their corrupt pro-Putin regime - focused on limited gains and minor bits of territory. This time around it was a massive nation-sized invasion... and all of their flaws - over-reliance on shock and awe, lack of logistics, poor leadership in charge of poor troops - got exposed in real time. Advancements in anti-tank weaponry turned dreaded Russian tanks into death traps and scrap bounty for Ukrainian farmers. As soon as Ukraine got upgraded artillery weapons from the West - HIMARs in particular - they were able to strike deeper into Russian-occupied locations to disrupt their supply chains. Everything built up to this past week's counterattack using Kershon as one front and opening up Kharkiv for a rout on a scale that hasn't been seen in decades.

The last time Russia felt a loss this bad, they were the Soviets and getting driven out of Afghanistan. But that was a loss that carried across nine years of bloody quagmire. This is a loss dragged along for five months - ever since they bogged down in April - and enacted over five days. We're talking hundreds of thousands of losses to KIA or POW. Half their armored might blown up or abandoned. Even if Putin panics and makes a call to conscript more cannon fodder to his war, it will take months to plan out another attack: Any hasty push and he's merely repeating the same mistakes to lose even more bodies and armor he can't afford to lose.

If we can go back to Silverman for some concluding thoughts about how Russia is going to handle this shocking turn of (mis)fortunes:

There’s RUMINT that Putin is preparing to order a general mobilization. And the sealing of of the center of Moscow is related to that. I doubt it. First, we haven’t seen any information come out that would indicate that anything is being done to prepare for a general mobilization. Secondly, I think it is more likely this was done preemptively to try to prevent mass protests as the news from Kharkiv and Kherson filters back into Russia despite Putin’s best efforts to completely control the Russian information space.

Frankly, ordering a general mobilization isn’t going to help Putin remove his tuchas from the the crack he’s wedged it in. A crack of his own making. Unless Putin has a fully equipped and properly trained army stashed somewhere that no one knows about, it’s only a matter of time. The question is what does he do at that point? Does he cause a meltdown at ZNPP? Does he use lower yield nukes and just wipes out Ukraine and every Ukrainian he can because he can’t have it? Does he decide that a world without Russia as a great power isn’t worth surviving and he fires all his nukes...?

It's a good question, and the big reason why NATO (especially Poland) hasn't escalated matters by sending in their own troops to give Ukraine more than enough trained personnel to beat Russia back to their border. The fear of nuclear retaliation is pretty much the only reason why a nation that's barely in the top 20 economies and clearly now with the worst ground army in the world - seriously, Iraqi troops in 2003 were better trained than this - can still command any fear.

However, unlike Silverman I can't imagine Putin or Russia getting angry or desperate enough to go nuclear on Ukraine. If Putin gives the order and drops a "Sore Loser" warhead on Kyiv, he becomes a global pariah for the rest of his short life. Instead of making opposing nations cower, it will terrify them into quarantining Russia with absolute sanctions and complete cutoff of travel, anything and everything to starve the oligarchs of their wealth and power. Every Russian embassy will be shut down and sent home. The United Nations would rebel at the broken nature of having Russia as a permanent member of the Security Council. And that's just the political fallout: LITERAL FALLOUT from even one nuke can very well cover Russia and cause backlash from Putin's own people. 

Even with low-yield nukes - read up on Davy Crocketts sometime, that might scare you a little, and yes Russia has that type of yield on hand - you will see a backlash of global proportions. No other nation has used nukes since 1945: Ever since we've learned the consequences of such weapons, even the U.S. has refused to use them again. For Putin to be dangerous enough to use a nuke, it will be the last weapon he uses. The rest of the world would do everything in their power to make sure he doesn't use another.

What matters now is if Ukraine and solidify their defenses in Kharkiv, and bring in more troops to circle around and cut off Kershon and Crimea to regain all of that before winter sets in. It may be September now but even in this age of climate change the likelihood of bad weather swirling in fast is pretty high, and it won't favor either side when it does.

But right now, all the advantages favor Ukraine. Their troops are spirited and disciplined and winning. Russia is retreating in a way they haven't done since 1917.

Here's hoping Ukraine reclaims so much of their homeland that Putin can't lie to his own people anymore.

Also, I REALLY need to find out where to order Ukrainian "Russian Warship, Go Fuck Yourself" Stamps for Christmas time. I got a relative who's into stamp collecting...

Ukraine's Independence Day

Officially, August 24 is Independence Day in Ukraine. 

Ukrainians are celebrating it by fighting off an unjust invasion by Putin's Russia.

It's been six months since Putin sent in a blitz at Kyiv to try and force that nation into submission, only to be left reeling when Zelenskyy proved he and his fellow Ukrainians were willing to punch back. Ever since then, the war has turned into a slog with Ukrainians trying to retake their eastern part of the nation while Russia is trying to kidnap more Ukrainians to turn them into slave labor or worse.

There's been a few months since the last time I blogged about Ukraine, the biggest news above all is the increase in artillery firepower that they've been using to attack Russian bases in Crimea, a likely move to help retake Kershon and hamper Russia's ability to threaten Odesa.

Don't take my word for it: Hopefully you're following Adam L. Silverman at Balloon Juice who's been doing a lot of daily updates on the war. He relies on some of the intel he gets at his job, but also shares a lot with official assessments from the UK Defense and several other groups focused on the region. His most current update is about today's Independence Day, but let me share some of his thoughts from an earlier posting he wrote:

As we hoped, the Ukrainians rose to the occasion. The defenses of Kyiv held, which prevented Putin from being able to seize the city, replace Ukraine’s leadership with his quislings, and fulfill the pseudo-historical destiny that Putin has concocted for himself and Russia. For the past six months, night and day, Ukraine has stood in the breach and held. It hasn’t been easy. It hasn’t been pretty or pleasant. But right now Ukraine is the frontline in the defense of liberal democracy, self determination, self government, and liberty against those, like Putin, who would remake not just the international system, but all states and societies, into managed, illiberal sham democracies pitted against each other in a perpetual struggle of all against all.

We all owe Ukraine and the Ukrainians a debt of gratitude for not flinching in this grim duty that has been forced upon them. The Ukrainians heroic defense epitomizes Lincoln’s dedication of the cemetery at Gettysburg...

We are witnessing the only just war any of us will ever see in our lifetimes. We are watching everything that American leaders have pontificated about as our national ideals be defended by a state and a society that six months ago was still a transitional democracy with all the flaws and blemishes that result from that hard transition.

A great miracle is happening there...

From all we're hearing, Russia is running lower on armored vehicles and other supplies. Their manpower has dwindled by significant numbers, and yet Putin can't risk (yet) any kind of conscription/draft to replenish his cannon fodder.

And summer is going to give way to winter, in that part of the world it comes pretty quick. Previous eras, Russia relied a lot on "General Winter" to stave off invasion and defeat, but this time around the weather favors Ukraine on the defensive. The only thing Putin can hope for now is that Western Europe - which still relies too much on Russian gas and oil - will suffer from the coming winter and choke off their support of Ukraine's efforts.

But NATO is making it clear they are supporting Ukraine as much as international policy allows. Efforts by Finland and Sweden to join NATO before Putin can fck them over are gathering votes and getting closer to completion, especially as the US Senate overwhelmingly voted for their inclusion.

This war will not end anytime soon, let us be honest about that. It won't end until Putin and his Russian underlings fall from power. The warmongering begins and ends with them.

So we need to keep praying for Ukraine to endure, our leaders and governments need to keep supporting Ukraine with money and weapons.

There's a motto: Slava Ukraini. It means "Glory to Ukrainians!"

Also: Russia, go fuck yourself.

Where Will Putin's War Lead?

Serious question: What the hell is Putin's endgame?

We all know what he wants going into his invasion of Ukraine: Stop Ukraine from joining NATO and/or the EU, break the anti-Russian government leading Ukraine, install a pro-Russian (pro-Putin) regime to control Ukraine, rattle the rest of Europe - Poland, the Baltic states, even Finland and Sweden - into accepting Russia as a dominant power again, and expose NATO as a weak and ineffective alliance hopefully leading to its demise.

What he likely expected going in was an easy fight. Like all autocratic bullies, he viewed his victim Ukraine as a pushover. His opponent President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was an actor and comedian, a political lightweight. His puppet donald trump had disrupted as much military and financial support to Ukraine from the United States as he could get away with. trump's actions to disrupt NATO had to have left that European military alliance divided and unfocused.

What Putin got was a bloody nose, figurately speaking. 

Literally, five days into his ordering the invasion of Ukraine, what Putin has is an international PR nightmare, near-global condemnation of his war, escalating sanctions and lockdowns of every financial avenue Russia has - including cutting off banks from SWIFT, a transactional process that can arguably block the Russian citizenry and businesses from their own accounts - not to mention a tanking stock market, and nothing resembling a cakewalk into Kyiv to set up his puppet state.

Putin's rival Zelenskyy failed to flee the capital when the invasion started, instead using his media savvy to go onto social media and make a personal call to arms to every Ukrainian to stop the Russians approaching their major cities. Reported when asked by western powers to evacuate for his own safety, Zelenskyy answered "I need ammunition, not a ride." Sonofabitch (and I mean this in a cool way) is getting comparisons to freaking Winston Churchill, for God's sake.

It's still too early into the fighting, but far too many reports have gotten out about Russian heavy armor failing to reach objectives without enough fuel, Russian conscripts getting lost, and air transports getting shot down before they can deploy troops to seize vital structures (like Kyiv's airport). 

Russia's army is supposed to be this formidable behemoth. Rebuilt from the downturn of the Soviet Union collapse. Armed with the latest high-tech gear, reliable tanks, fearsome air strength, cyberwar capabilities. Five days in, and they're performing about as well as Iraqi forces did in BOTH Persian Gulf wars. It'd be hilarious if the bloodshed of Ukrainian civilians wasn't so painful.

Social media is filling up with clips of Ukrainians berating Russian tank units stranded along the roadside, or tractors dragging off Russian tanks left abandoned in the middle of nowhere. NO I AM NOT MAKING THAT UP.

If true, it’s probably the first tank ever stolen by a farmer… ))
Ukrainians are tough cookies indeed. #StandWithUkraine #russiagohome pic.twitter.com/TY0sigffaM

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) February 27, 2022

And that's not even going into the heroism of the thirteen Ukrainian defenders of Snake Island, who refused to surrender to Russian ships with a defiant "Go fuck yourself." (Update 3/5/22: Those defenders may have survived but are likely POWs)

All of Putin's efforts to portray his invasion as a "peacekeeping" effort to "de-Nazify" Ukraine didn't sell well past his own sycophants. Nearly the entire world views him as a war criminal, and it's a view that's not going to go away if he tries to prolong this war any further.

There is welcome news that Ukraine and Russia are agreeing to peace talks, with Ukraine insisting they won't surrender, but that then begs the question just what the hell Putin will ever agree on to end this invasion?

Putin has already shot his load, as it were. Making a grand pronouncement that Ukraine wasn't even a real country and that he was going to make them all happy Russians again, only to have nearly every Ukrainian grab a rifle and fight back. Even grandmothers were tossing sunflower seeds at Russian troops cursing that their bodies will be fertilizer for the flowers that will bloom. 

Putin has already flexed his nation's military might, only to face the possibility that he's going to have to retreat, never a good look for a bullying autocrat. Or worse, double down on the troops and weaponry (that he may not have) and try to overwhelm Ukrainian resistance by sheer numbers, risking the growing anti-war sentiment of the citizenry at home.

Putin called for this invasion in spite of U.S. President Biden's increased warnings of massive backlash in the form of sanctions and financial lockdowns. He tried to brush off such concerns claiming Russia would endure it, but there are serious signs he underestimated the resolve of most major financial nations as both the U.S. and the EU are closing off nearly every revenue stream Russia needs to survive. Shutting down SWIFT is a legitimately painful cutoff. Germany's willingness to cut off their reliance on Russian natural gas has to be a serious blow.

And in terms of foreign relations, Putin's aggressiveness only worked to make the European nations not yet in NATO - like Finland and Sweden, both of them along Russia's northern borders - openly call for debate to join NATO. Threats of retaliation from Russia's foreign minister are falling on deaf ears. Putin's plan to break up the one European alliance in opposition to him has failed.

In fact, it's a bit surprising how NATO is still here, or that the United States is still a member. One of the great fears of donald trump's reign as President Loser of the Popular Vote (Twice) was how he seemed so close to pulling the U.S. out of NATO in order to appease his idol/boss/blackmailer Putin. It was something that could well have happened in 2018 or 2019, just as trump was threatening to cut off all military aid to Ukraine unless they helped him sabotage Biden's presidential hopes (which led to trump's first Impeachment). Something stopped trump from pulling the plug, and until more details - and more behind-the-scenes memoirs get published - we're only left to speculate.

But that failure by trump - gee, another botched job by him, go figure - weakened Putin when it mattered most, because now NATO is revitalized and focused on its original objective of providing a military bulwark against Soviet Russian aggression against the rest of Europe.

Now that I've said all that, I need to go back to my original question: Just what the hell is Putin's endgame here?

If he's bartering for peace, in order to end the economic hits that Russia's taking now and to save whatever's left of an invading force getting bogged down into a mismanaged quagmire, Putin's got a weak hand to play with.

Ukraine is not going to trade away the one card they've got in all this: Their threat/promise to join NATO and/or the EU market. Whatever fears Russia/Putin has about that, it's the one thing Ukraine can't abandon lest they risk Russia pulling this invasion crap ten or twenty years from now. Don't forget, Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons left to them when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, with the promise that Russia would never invade, never pull the bullshit that Putin so obviously did this month. Putin cannot offer anything else for that security again, no other promise or guarantee to prevent invasion the way membership with NATO could guarantee. And yet, it's going to be the one thing Putin wants - No NATO for you! - to take away from this no matter what. Like I said earlier, this is a paradox that can't be resolved through promises he'll easily break.

There's little Putin can offer to the rest of the world, either. He's on record breaking treaties and agreements to pull off this invasion, and anything he has to offer to relieve the economic stranglehold can't be taken at face value or with simple platitudes. For these sanctions to get lifted, he's going to have to sacrifice more than a pound of flesh. We're talking demilitarization along the Ukrainian border with UN peacekeepers put in place to make sure Putin won't pull this stunt again. We're talking reform efforts to purge the oligarchs feeding off the Russian economy and creating global corruption abroad, and likely weaken Putin's power base. We're talking election reforms to guarantee free and open elections that Putin can't steal, which he'll definitely fight to save his own unpopular ass.

Putin's reputation abroad getting shredded is one thing, but it's his position at home that's going to suffer if he's forced to change his narrative and retreat without victory. "Strong Men" authoritarians like himself can never afford to appear weak or beaten: Losing in neighboring Ukraine, with the whole world watching and his own Russian people paying attention, is a sign of weakness that tends to be fatal. The army he led into disaster is likely going to question his further leadership. The politicians he thought were toadying Yes Men are going to dread being blamed for HIS disaster and sacrificed to clear room for more 'competent' Yes Men (if any can be found by now). The citizenry he's tried to bully into acquiescence is going to start mocking him from the shadows if not from the middle of the streets (anti-war marches are already happening in Russia).

In that situation, Putin's not likely to barter with Ukraine or the West in any good faith, meaning the odds of a peaceful end to his invasion are close to nil. A good sign that Putin's not going to negotiate well is how he's already called up his nuclear deployment forces - five days in! - as a sign of how panicked he is this thing isn't going his way.

That Putin is already reaching for the Nuclear Option as a means of forcing the world to cower to him in spite of his failures in Ukraine is both horrifying and placating. Yes, it's scary that we're back to the brinkmanship game of Mutually Assured Destruction. But even Putin - even his military and political advisors who would have to be a buffer in this situation - has to realize that if he goes nuclear that's it, GAME OVER for everyone including themselves, that even if they survive they will end up ruling over a world of radioactive ash.

It's a trump card (sorry, pun intended) that Putin really can't call on. It's at best the one thing he's got going for him that would ensure he gets a safe flight out of Russia after the country rises up against his corrupt weak ass.

That's the only sane way Putin's war is going to end. 

The Snowflake That Is trump

Didn't know about it until earlier this week that trump was going over to Europe to hang out with our nation's NATO allies, and I also didn't realize how bad a trip it was turning out to be until THIS little tidbit got out there for public consumption. Just consider the headline to Anne Laurie's article at Balloon-Juice:

Late Night NATO Open Thread: They’re Not Laughing *With* Him,
They’re Laughing *At* Him

With links to various Twitter threads like this one:

When even Boris Johnson is getting in his kicks at you, you're clearly not the cool kid at this school.

Via Martin Longman at Washington Monthly:

I’ve been watching Trump since I was teenager growing up in the New York media market. It has been obvious to me that he’s driven by insecurities and resentment toward the Manhattan financial elite who have always viewed him as a mannerless fraud from the outer boroughs. He really wants their acceptance and I think he thought he’d finally get it when he won the presidency. It hasn’t worked out that way, and the only thing that has changed is that people see him now as a threat.

It’s hard to imagine anything that would strike Trump to his core more than being ridiculed by his would-be peers, and that’s why it was predictable as the rain that he’d throw a fit when he realized that he was the butt of jokes at the Queen Elizabeth’s Buckingham Palace reception on Tuesday night...

Trump was particularly angry with Justin Trudeau who was captured on an audio feed sympathizing with Macron for being unexpectedly roped into a tense 40 minute press conference that was supposed to be a brief photo opportunity. Doing his best “Mean Girls” impression, Trump called Trudeau “two-faced” and suggested he was just angry about criticism that Canada doesn’t contribute enough money to NATO.

Then he did this:

President Donald Trump on Wednesday abruptly canceled a press conference that was scheduled to cap a contentious trip to London for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 70th anniversary meeting.
The presser was scheduled to come after a series of bilateral meetings with NATO members, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.
“When today’s meetings are over, I will be heading back to Washington,” Trump said in a series of tweets.
“We won’t be doing a press conference at the close of NATO because we did so many over the past two days. Safe travels to all!” Trump said.

The president is obviously wounded. His feelings are hurt. And now he will seek ways to exact revenge. This is such a well established pattern with him by now that I have no trouble predicting that he will repeat it.

This behavior has never won him respect in the past and it will not work in the future.  At this point, I’m surprised that he continues to make foreign trips to Europe since they always end in humiliation...

trump's vanity has always been a sore spot: HE has to be the biggest brightest star in the sky even when he's clearly not. he'd been obsessed with his claims of wealth and power and dealing prowess, even as the business deals collapsed into bankruptcy courts and even as the real rich kids banned him from such cool things as major team sports ownerships.

What will actually happen next isn't entirely predictable. trump can express his impotent rage towards Europe in various ways. Forcing the United States to quit out of NATO altogether is still out there as an option. he's still of a mind that tariff wars are easy to win (he just started them up again versus Brazil and Argentina).

The thing is, when trump does his damage to his perceived enemies, he's not going to do it in the best interests of the United States.

he'll be causing damage to satisfy his own rage.

And that's not how a President should act. Ever.

That's what 62 million of you Americans voted for.

Gods help us.

Czechs Know What To Do With Corrupt Fraudsters In Their Government

This crazy thing has been happening in Europe over the last few months, and it's gone big (via Lenka Ponikelska  and Peter Laca at Bloomberg):

Czechs took to the streets in the biggest protests since the fall of communism, demanding that billionaire Prime Minister Andrej Babis resign over allegations of conflict of interest and a criminal fraud case involving European Union funds.

Organizers said about 250,000 people rallied against the minority government on Sunday in Prague’s Letna park, scene of the largest rallies that toppled communist rule 30 years ago. It was a culmination of two months of protests against Babis, who has denounced the accusations as an attempt by his opponents to derail his political career. Police estimated the crowd at 200,000.

The protesters, many of whom traveled from the far-flung reaches of the central European country, waved EU and Czech flags and banners reading “Resign.” Public transportation strained under the pressure of people arriving to the site near the Prague castle. Student activists organizing the rallies say the premier is unfit to stay in the office because of the mounting scandals.

“We can’t accept a prime minister who’s facing a criminal investigation and is in such a fundamental conflict of interest,” Benjamin Roll, one of the organizers, told the crowd. “We’ve had enough.”

Babis is facing potential criminal charges over allegations that a company he once owned illegally obtained about $2 million worth of EU aid last decade. Also, a preliminary report from the European Commission found Babis in conflict of interest because, despite having put his agriculture, media and chemical business empire in trusts, he has influence over EU funds they may receive...

Sound a little familiar, America? Yeah, this is a lot like trump... and also the likes of other rich businessmen who turned to politics to expand their corruption.

We've allowed ourselves to get blinded by the media mythologizing of the genius CEOs, the brilliant lies of deregulation and tax cuts, and allowed far too many con artists into political offices they have no right serving.

But there is a way to fight back against this corruption, when it's all said and done.

You can stand up - like they're doing in Prague, and what they're doing in Istanbul as well - and say "No."

You can recognize the crooks - right now, that's Republicans with their Godawful tax giveaway to their rich buddies - for what they do, what they take from us, and tell them "No more."

You can vote them out of office. That's all it takes. Show up at the ballot, and do your damnedest to make sure your vote counts, and that the bastards are all gone by the end of the day.

Stand up, America. They're doing it across the globe now, against the corrupt powers in high places, and we need to stand up as well.

One Step Away From the End of the United States (w/ Updates)

(Update: Thanks again to Batocchio at Crooksandliars.com for a link in Mike's Blog Round-Up! Please take the time to visit the rest of the blog, and hey you might notice I have a new short story published in the Strangely Funny anthology series!)

So, just to note, President Loser of the Popular Vote donald trump is now in Brussels - sorry, Europe - to partake in meetings with our North Atlantic Treaty allies (NATO)... and also to meet with Russia Kleptocrat/Autocrat Vladimir Putin for a one-on-one meeting that will not be attended by any other American present (not even an American translator). No Chief of Staff, no one from the State Department, nobody from the White House... The possibilities of so many things happening off-the-radar that could well threaten U.S. National Security cannot be ignored: The last time trump held an unsupervised visit with Russians, he gave up vital national security secrets involving our Israeli allies to where he fucked up a covert operation for them.

The man simply cannot be trusted on his own. At yet, he will be... with arguably one of the biggest threats to American national security to re-emerge after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

This isn't simple fearmongering on my part. A lot of foreign policy experts are dreading this as well.

Worse, they're worried that this particular trip - with trump railing against NATO more than before - will spell doom for American foreign policy: There is every likelihood trump will drag the United States out of NATO and kill an alliance that has held Western Europe (and recently all of Europe) together for 60-plus years.

Lemme link to Jonathan Chait at New York for this:

President Trump tweeted today that America’s NATO allies have been “delinquent for many years in payments” and should “reimburse the U.S.” That is not how NATO works...

One cannot rule out the possibility that Trump lacks the mental capacity to understand the basic form of America’s most important alliance. But it is at least as likely that Trump is choosing not to understand this, so that he can precipitate a fissure within the alliance.

Last week, Trump’s national security advisers, who have traditional Republican views toward NATO (good) and Russia (bad), and the allies both expressed their hope that Trump would use the NATO summit to declare victory. Trump has been calling for the allies to increase their defense spending, and indeed they have. The increase has been ongoing since 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea, but the allies signaled they would be happy to let Trump claim credit. “The European officials we’ve spoken to would love nothing more than for Trump to take a victory lap and claim credit for them boosting their defense spending,” reported Jonathan Swan last week.

Oddly for Trump, he is not taking the opportunity to claim a win. Instead he appears to be defining the terms of the disagreement such that it cannot be resolved. NATO’s allies can always try to spend even more on defense, but asking them to pay the United States back dues that they never promised and do not owe is an impossible demand...

trump is moving the goalposts on this so that he'll always have an excuse to do what he's likely about to do. Back to Chait:

Meanwhile, the Trump-Putin relationship is blossoming (or perhaps just coming out into the open). Putin reportedly has been telling Trump that “fake news” and the “deep state” are conspiring against them. (“It’s not us,” Putin has told Trump, according to an American source, summarizing his message, “it’s the subordinates fighting against our friendship.”) Trump has also reportedly expressed to Putin his desire for better relations, and called the advisers who tried to prevent him from congratulating the strongman on his reelection “stupid people.”

Compared to a week ago, it is now harder to imagine Trump will use the summit to leverage concessions that will make him appear like a strong negotiator, and much easier to imagine that he will use it to instigate a diplomatic crisis with NATO. By the time this is over, he may well have reoriented American foreign policy completely. It may seem bizarre that one man could do this, especially given that almost nobody in Trump’s administration or the ranks of the party’s political professionals share his goal of jettisoning NATO or closely courting Russia. Yet Trump has shown the ability to lead his base wherever he wants to take it. And where the base has gone, the party has eventually followed...

Under other circumstances, it would be hilarious to watch all the hardened foreign policy wizards of the Republican Party - all of them perfectly aware of how the U.S. has benefited in both military and political matters being united with the other Western democracies during the Cold War and Global War on Terror decades - suddenly switch their worldviews from "Europe good, Putin bad" to "OMG Putin is just the best BFF ever!" Under other circumstances, most of those intelligent, well-studied thinkers of realpolitik would argue against any ill-advised ignorant demolition of a stable, valuable alliance. But we no longer live in that world: This is the World of Fox Not-News, and if you can't help shill the Narrative of the hour/month/year which happens to be whatever is in trump's head that very moment, you are persona non grata to the GOP.

By the end of this week, everything we've ever known about the United States' place in the world could well be blown up and torn down like the Berlin Wall.

We will see a near-immediate end to foreign sharing of intel: What is the likelihood the UK or France is willing to share data with a nation that could easily hand it over to Russia without batting an eye? NATO's efforts to stop Russia from a full-out invasion of Ukraine falls apart. Half of Central Europe - bizarrely under the political sway of right-wing Nationalist governments more friendly to Putin than they should - could well cut out of any NATO or shared alliance with Western Europe and turn most of Eastern Europe back into a Russian playground.

Our own military situation won't improve. Any ongoing efforts in the Global War on Terror takes a hit when we lose all that intel. Half of our military preparedness and ability to deploy has been tied into our sharing of resources overseas: Our military bases in Europe will likely be closed.

The aftershock of trump shutting down NATO won't end there. Our other overseas alliances especially in Asia will come under scrutiny. How many of those nations would be willing to stay attached to a United States dominated by a bully in trump who keeps screaming for "reparations" on "delinquent payments"? South Korea is already scarred by trump's failures - yes, THAT already fell apart - dealing with North Korea. Central America is already pissed at trump's evil anti-immigrant policies. Africa's in no mood to give trump the time of day either.

Put on top of this trump's eagerness to wage tariff wars on multiple fronts - we're at four trade blocs and counting - and we're screwed. Every nation from Australia to Zimbabwe is going to consider their options in dealing with a crazed, unstable USA and take their chances without us.

The United States is one step away - one major temper tantrum by the world's biggest orange baby - from being a Superpower nation to a Third-World Nobody relying on Russia for handouts.

This isn't hyperbole. This can really happen. The North Atlantic Treaty - the basis for NATO - includes Article 13, which allows a NATO member to "denounce" its membership and gives that nation a year to cut all ties with the alliance. trump can issue a denouncement and we'd be out of NATO technically by 2019. In reality, the entire situation will go FUBAR within hours.

It would be up to the remaining pro-foreign-policy, pro-NATO people in the Republican ranks - likely Secretary of Defense Mattis, who has to be fully aware how serious a hit to our own military this will be, and Chief of Staff Kelly, and then various Senators and Congresspersons on the Foreign Relations committees - to do something to stop trump from nuking our strongest allied bloc from orbit. However, given the constant failure by these same "sane adults in the room" to keep trump on a leash, I doubt any of them will grow the collective spine necessary to call for a 25th Amendment solution to remove a clearly unstable and dangerous president for the sake of the nation.

To everyone especially the hard-core trump supporters who keep screaming there's no proof that trump colluded with Russia to hack/interfere with the 2016 Elections... here's your fucking proof. trump's own fucking actions selling the United States out to Putin, practically handing this nation over on a goddamn silver platter. Everything bad that can happen on this trip by trump will be EXACTLY what Putin wants. The second that trump pulls the United States out of NATO, Putin wins.

It had long been a plot point in political potboiler thrillers that somehow the United States would come under attack not from invasion but from subversion, of a group or an individual somehow grabbing the reins of power and surrendering the entire nation without a shot. To anyone who ever thought those books or movies were implausible, welcome to the Hell that is trumpWorld.

It had been a common political attack, usually from the Far Right and the Republicans who went after Democrats as being so liberal they were practically Commies. Think back to Nixon's first Congressional campaign when he attacked his Democratic opponent - a woman by the by - of being "Pink down to her underwear." Think about all the times the Republicans accusing Democrats of being in bed with the Soviet Union. Think about the Far Right fears about fluoride in the water.

And when Soviet Communism fell, the Far Right found other excuses to hate on Democrats. The Clintons were in cahoots with China. Obama was a Secret Muslim selling us out to ISIL. Anything to fearmonger their base into voting for the worst of the worst.

And now here we are. One step away from the likelihood of donald Shitgibbon trump cutting off our strongest international alliance all to curry favor with his favorite dictator Putin. One step away from the so-called Leader of the Free World surrendering without a shot to the latest Strongman of Russia.

But this isn't a conspiracy. This is no far-flung fantasy. This ain't a movie starring Frank Sinatra and Angela Lansbury.

Hail Fucking Hydra.

We are so very fucking royally fucked.

Update (7/11/18): This very morning trump accused GERMANY of being "a captive of Russia". The worst case of projection since that slideshow presentation at that boring seminar we all attend at some point in our lives.

The Wreck in Quebec Falls Mainly On trump's Dreck.

To the seven people who follow this blog, you've no doubt realized I express only the greatest DISDAIN and HATRED towards Loser of the Popular Vote donald trump.

That I view trump as a con artist, a thief, a bankrupt businessman who doesn't know thing one about actual business/finance, a racist douchenozzle, ignorant, ill-read, ill-informed, just plain ill.

That I knew trump would be a train wreck in the White House, that he would shred every norm, break any law, betray every ally, if it meant filling his own pockets and satisfying his own Id (his Ego too subsumed by narcissism to be of any value anymore).

This weekend trump went to the G7 meeting, a gathering of the top economic powerhouses - U.S., Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Canada (with UK/France/Germany/Italy as part of the EU) - to coordinate current trade and finance issues and plan for long-term economic stability.

With trump already issuing tariffs aimed at Canada and Europe, the threat of escalating a trade war was a major topic. With trump going to these meetings with open disdain for certain discussions and a refusal to respect anyone else's opinions, this was looking like a bad weekend for the global economy.

Well, yeah. It may have actually gotten worse.

Let us refer over to this other Paul, fellow by the name of Krugman with a noted reputation for knowing economics. Hey, Paul, this is Paul here, alright if I quote you right now from your New York Times piece? Thanks, Paul:

...Still, there has never been a disaster like the G7 meeting that just took place. It could herald the beginning of a trade war, maybe even the collapse of the Western alliance. At the very least it will damage America’s reputation as a reliable ally for decades to come; even if Trump eventually departs the scene in disgrace, the fact that someone like him could come to power in the first place will always be in the back of everyone’s mind.

What went down in Quebec? I’m already seeing headlines to the effect that Trump took a belligerent “America first” position, demanding big concessions from our allies, which would have been bad. But the reality was much worse.

He didn’t put America First; Russia First would be a better description. And he didn’t demand drastic policy changes from our allies; he demanded that they stop doing bad things they aren’t doing. This wasn’t a tough stance on behalf of American interests, it was a declaration of ignorance and policy insanity.

Trump started with a call for readmitting Russia to the group, which makes no sense at all. The truth is that Russia, whose GDP is about the same size as Spain’s and quite a bit smaller than Brazil’s, was always a ringer in what was meant to be a group of major economies. It was brought in for strategic reasons, and kicked out when it invaded Ukraine. There is no possible justification for bringing it back, other than whatever hold Putin has on Trump personally.

Then Trump demanded that the other G7 members remove their “ridiculous and unacceptable” tariffs on U.S. goods – which would be hard for them to do, because their actual tariff rates are very low. The European Union, for example, levies an average tariff of only three percent on US goods. Who says so? The U.S. government’s own guide to exporters...

Was there any strategy behind Trump’s behavior? Well, it was pretty much exactly what he would have done if he really is Putin’s puppet: yelling at friendly nations about sins they aren’t committing won’t bring back American jobs, but it’s exactly what someone who does want to break up the Western alliance would like to see...

I doubt our own economic leaders - business CEOs, Wall Street, major investors - are going to be thrilled that the economic system they've known for the past 50 years or more is about to go into the dumpster fire. Any advantages trump and his handlers think they have trying to bully other nations into serving their (not ours) whims aren't there. Yes, the U.S. economy is too massive to wage war against. Yes, a trade war would hurt the other G7 members more than it would hurt America.

But don't forget Machiavelli's maxim about Fear and Love: The real trick for a Prince is to avoid being HATED, because once your opponents and underlings reach that stage they will pay any price driven by that hate to destroy you.

Our staunchest and longest-serving allies neither fear nor love trump at this moment: They Hate him now. If they fear anything, it's the likelihood of kleptocrat/dictator/real victor of the trade wars - Putin - getting everything he wants including the dissolution of a united Europe.

Getting into a trade war with the United States is one thing: All of Europe has to be wary now that Russia will escalate their manipulations of local "populist" movements to disrupt their elections and destabilize their governments. Any of which is possible when economic downturns caused by the trade war make most nations turn on each other in rage and confusion.

Still, for all Putin is getting out of this chaos, the one truly enjoying all of this has to be trump. This fulfills his sociopathy. Convinced that the world is his to own and destroy, he will now take his pleasure in burning it all down.

trump: "Everything burns."

We as a planet are so royally fucked.

As Though America Has Forgotten The Evils of a Chaotic and Friendless Foreign Policy

What part of "we're f-cked" do you not get yet?

Ask Zack Beauchamp at Vox.com:

Donald Trump just lobbed a grenade into the normally staid world of European-American diplomacy, using a joint interview with two of Europe’s biggest newspapers to call NATO “obsolete,” predict that the European Union would fall apart and announce that the US wouldn’t really care if it did, and threaten to potentially start a trade war with Germany over BMW’s plans to build a manufacturing plant in Mexico.

For good measure, Trump also criticized German Chancellor Angela Merkel, one of Washington’s closest allies, while hinting that he’d be willing to lift the sanctions imposed on Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has rattled many in Europe by annexing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and threatening to use force against other of his neighbors...

This is the damage caused by bringing in someone with no foreign policy awareness to run a nation, especially one as large and important as ours:

The remarks forced Secretary of State John Kerry to spend one of his last days as America’s top diplomat repairing the damage that Trump has done before even taking the oath of office. In an interview with CNN, Kerry said it was "inappropriate" for Trump to "be stepping in to the politics of other countries in a quite direct manner."

Kerry is right to be worried. Bashing NATO and the European Union, and alienating Germany, is a plan for tearing apart US relations with the EU — for weakening the agreements that underpin America’s status as the sole superpower and that maintain peace on the European continent.

Skewing things into "OH MY GOD THIS WILL GET WORSE" category is how Trump is Best-Friends-Forever with Putin, who would thrill to a devastated NATO because it would give Russia room to finish its beatdown of Ukraine (they're still fighting a border war) and re-establish itself as the Bully of Eastern Europe (rattling the Baltic states, Poland, and other former Soviet satellites countries).

Trump - by attacking NATO - is going after what had been a strong and maturing foreign peacekeeping organization that had reduced the threat of another world war in the wake of World War II. As Beauchamp puts it:

That’s because NATO works through commitment: Members pledge that an attack on one will be treated as an attack on all. As Trump calls the value of the alliance into question, other states might question whether he would actually defend a NATO ally if attacked — especially since, during the campaign, he said he might not. If countries don’t believe in that promise, then it stops serving as a deterrent — potentially encouraging Russia to menace a NATO member-state.

“The United States president-elect is actively working to increase the risk of military escalation and war in Europe,” Thomas Rid, a professor at King’s College London’s Department of War Studies, tweeted in response to the interview.

Beauchamp notes there would be only one winner in a fractured and divided Europe:

There is only (one) country that benefits from all of these moves: Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Putin’s fundamental foreign policy goal is to restore Russia’s place as one of the world’s most powerful and influential nations. To do so, he wants to restore global politics to the way it was in the 19th century — when European countries saw each other as rivals rather than partners. This kind of “balance of power” world order would allow Russia to divide European powers by forming selective partnerships with some against the others — thus restoring Russian greatness.

Putin’s Russia is too weak, in political and military terms, to accomplish this on its own. The logical end point of Trump’s stated policies, regardless of whether that’s what he intends, is a fractured Europe that would be far less capable of standing up to Putin.

Just as my own note, Putin's attempt to shift things back to a "balance of power" rivalry across the European nations is a bad idea, because history taught us that rivalries DID NOT KEEP THE PEACE. The Balance of Power system that came into being in the wake of the Napoleonic Era provoked a variety of arms races and empire-building that culminated in World War I... which then led into World War II and its horrors.

Putin may have forgotten something about those wars: neither of them did Russia any favors, with military failures, political revolutions, famine and death the main results. If Putin thinks a divided Europe is going to make him and his nation stronger, he needs to remember what happened to the Tsar who was in power at the start of the First Big War.

But it's not Putin's relative amnesia that worries me: it's the memory lapses of my own damn nation that's driving me crazy right now.

I'm not that all surprised that more Republicans aren't rising up to denounce Trump: after all, this is the tiger they're riding and they dare not get off. The GOP has their domestic policy agenda of destroying Obamacare destroying Medicare destroying the New Deal destroying everything our nation's done since 1865, and they'll do it while Trump is in office to carry all the blame for the inevitable disasters for them. But even going after NATO and the EU - with all the serious after-effects that can derail our economy - has to be a bridge too far even for these neocons in the Senate and the House. And yet, not a peep from them. Our political leaders are now willing to let a stable, profitable, and effective foreign policy die on the vine just for one man's ego (and man-crush for the Russian dictator).

It's as though the relative stability of the last 50 years dealing with Western Europe never mattered to Trump's ill-informed nationalistic (almost isolationist) world-view, that the last 20 years of relative peace with an entire continent made up of economic and political powerhouses carries no weight with the modern Republican Party that once prided itself on foreign policy expertise.

The United States - and everything we've known in our lifetimes (for everybody born after 1945) - is so very very fucked now.

Just to note one more time, 62 million of my fellow Americans - some of them who should have known better - voted for this oncoming train wreck. And there is nobody else coming to save us.


All so that it would be a stronger world/
A strong though loving world to die in - "Sanities," John Cale