Observations of the November 2025 Elections

So there were a number of elections across the United States - in what is an off-year between the 4-year presidential cycle and the congressional midterms - this November 4th 2025, involving city, state, and a few special federal elections that tend to indicate the overall mood of the American electorate heading into the 2026 midterms.

At the top of the list were key elections in Virginia and New Jersey for governorships and other state officials, a retention vote for Democratic judges in Pennsylvania, a special election in Texas' US House 18th district, a referendum in California that would grant the Dems in control there to gerrymander against the Red state gerrymandering attempting to rig the 2026 House districts for Republicans, 

And the top observation - considering how the Democrats and mostly liberal-leaning referenda won the votes across nearly the entire country even in Deep Red Republican places! - is: Wow, a lot of voters are PISSED at the Republicans.

Via Stephen Fowler at NPR:

Democrats flipped two seats on Georgia's statewide Public Service Commission by wide margins, one of many surprise victories for the party Tuesday up and down the ballot in the handful of races across the country.

Polling shows the Democratic Party is historically unpopular, but at polling places this year voters have helped the party overperform in elections against the backdrop of President Trump's even less popular policies.

Beyond the blowout victories in the New Jersey and Virginia governors' races, Zohran Mamdani winning a majority of votes in New York City's mayoral election and California voters approving a plan to temporarily redraw the state's congressional districts to add Democrat-leaning districts, the party continued its trend of electoral success in the 2025 general election...

In terms of blowouts, the governor wins for Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherill in New Jersey were around 13 percent over their Republican opponents. In this age of polarized voting bases, getting to double-digit wins means A) your own base (Democratic) of voters showed up in droves, B) their base (Republican) failed to show, and/or C) the independent voters that tend to go 50-50 (at best 60-40 leaning to one party) really hated everyone and everything the Republicans were offering this time around.

But those results alone don't describe just how overwhelming the Blue Wave was this year, even when you throw in how Democrats in Virginia secured control of both houses of the state legislature. Back to Fowler:

In Georgia, Peter Hubbard and Alicia Johnson will be the newest members of the state's five-person public utility regulator after earning roughly 60% of the vote. It's the first time Democrats have won a nonfederal statewide office there since 2006 and one where soaring energy costs and displeasure with incumbents dominated the race.

Pennsylvania voters chose to retain three state Supreme Court judges that were first elected as Democrats after millions of dollars in outside spending driven by conservative billionaire Jeff Yass' efforts to reshape the state court's politics. Democrats also won special elections for a seat on Pennsylvania's Superior Court and a seat on its Commonwealth Court.

Also in Pennsylvania, Democrats swept the top "row offices" in the purple-hued Bucks County, electing the county's first-ever Democratic district attorney and defeating an incumbent Republican sheriff a year after Trump narrowly won there. Democrats similarly notched commanding victories in county executive races in Erie, Lehigh and Northampton counties, all bellwether counties in recent presidential elections.

At the state legislative level, Mississippi Democrats have broken a GOP supermajority in the state Senate after flipping two seats in that chamber plus another pickup in the state House. A federal court ordered lawmakers to redraw 14 total House and Senate districts after finding the maps drawn in 2022 discriminated against Black voters...

In many local races across the country, Democrats touted victories that will reshape their communities, like the flipping of all three city council seats in Georgetown, S.C., the unseating of the last remaining Republican city council member in Orlando, Fla., and winning back mayoral races in Connecticut...

I knew things were really skewing well for Democrats when I heard about those Georgia state committee wins. In a Deep South state heavily dominated by Republicans, and where any Democratic wins in the past decade were down to the wire, getting over 60 percent of statewide voters in blowout wins is a huge sign of anger by voters towards the Far Right GOP.

An opinion piece by Rex Huppke at USA Today spells it out:

Polling had already shown how much Americans broadly dislike everything the Trump administration is doing. But in the first election of Trump’s second term in office, voters in red, blue and purple states made clear they aren’t buying the smug cruelty and king-like behavior the president and his lackeys are selling.

In the most high-profile races – for mayor of New York City and governors of Virginia and New Jersey – Democrats fended off millions of right-wing dollars and relentless Islamophobic and anti-transgender fearmongering to win all three offices convincingly.

What happened in New York City where the Far Right, the billionaire elites, and even the mainstream media attacked winner Zohran Mamdani for his Muslim heritage underlined the racism and fear that drives the Far Right. And in Virginia, the Republican candidates' open transphobia - in an attempt to build on the DEI fearmongering that propelled outgoing governor Youngkin in 2021 - ignored the voters' ongoing concerns about cost-of-living/affordability issues that are still hampering a majority of Americans in this post-pandemic world.

In short: the Republicans were too desperate to mudsling their Democratic opponents to remember that most voters still care about their financial and familial well-being. They were able to lie about the price of eggs in 2024 to ruin Biden/Harris' and the Democrats' chances to win, but with the GOP in full control of the federal government - and responsible for the economic downturns happening under that control - they couldn't fearmonger their way out of this election cycle. As Huppke notes:

This is the kind of ballot-box walloping that’s earned, highlighting the simple fact that Trump has gone to great lengths to anger and outrage Americans since his second term started in January.

Consider this multitudinous array of deceptions, blunders and outrageous acts:

After promising to lower food prices and inflation on Day 1, food prices are increasing and inflation has risen every month since April and is now higher than it was in January.

The U.S. government is in its longest-ever shutdown because Republicans want to do away with Affordable Care Act subsidies and Democrats won’t agree. Health insurance premiums are skyrocketing, and now food aid is in limbo because the Trump administration is delaying funding to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, putting millions of Americans in danger of going hungry...

Also in short: trump and his Republican allies are acting like assholes. That may impress the mainstream punditry - who always misinterpret arrogance for leadership - but it doesn't impress most voters.

The night before SNAP benefits expired, Trump posted a slew of photos showing off his fancy marble remodel of the Lincoln Bathroom, then he attended a "Great Gatsby"-themed Halloween party at his Florida resort.

Trump demolished the East Wing of the White House to make room for a massive ballroom that nobody asked for, thumbing his nose at the optics of desecrating a historic building and erecting a monument to opulence while Americans struggle to afford meat.

The GOP has secured tax cuts for billionaires while slashing Medicaid and putting a squeeze on rural hospitals...

None of this is popular. None of this has made any regular American’s life better. None of this has brought down grocery bills, made housing more affordable or provided better health insurance.

Perhaps a president who gleefully shows off a video of himself wearing a crown and flying a jet that drops poop on the heads of protesting Americans is a cool thing inside the MAGA bubble. Maybe anti-transgender hate and cruelty against immigrants bring the good kind of tingle to a small subset of the population.

But as the Nov. 4 blue wave demonstrated, most Americans don’t find Trump’s childishness cool. They don’t get off on cruelty. And they aren’t, in any way, shape or form, feeling the good kind of tingle.

While it's good news that a sizable plurality of American voters across the whole nation are wising up to how bad the Republicans under trump are performing, the bad news is that past experience with Republican setbacks is that these assholes will double-down on the ineptitude, cruelty, and graft. Especially trump: he can never admit he is in the wrong, that his conduct is offensive, or that his policies aren't working (and will never work).

It's going to take the 2026 midterms and the other state-level elections that year for most American voters to hold the Republicans and this crooked trump accountable for the ongoing damage they're committing and threaten to make worse. That is, if the Republican-controlled Supreme Court will let us have fair elections next year... /rage

Keep resisting, America. This isn't over.

What I'm Hoping This 2024 Election Cycle

What the hell, while I'm in a happy, perky mood this afternoon (don't tell me the bloody Broncos-Bucs football score yet dammit). 

From the 270towin website

This is what I want the Presidential Electoral map to look like after this November's Election Day:

I know this isn't real, and the odds of this happening are slim to none: But if the Democrats can drum up this much enthusiasm and turnout in even the rural Red States of the Midwest - if they can keep Georgia and flip North Carolina, Florida, Alabama, and Texas Blue to break the goddamned racist Southern Strategy - this would override any trumpian attempts at sabotaging the elections. Oh, he and the other Republicans will scream "STOLEN" but there will be too many states and too many voters refusing to play their game. It'll be the largest Electoral College stomping by the Democrats since 1964, and the conservative GOP will feel the impact.

Hell, I'm letting the Libertarians ride off with New Hampshire just to piss off trump after he tried to bully and threaten them into supporting his orange ass (and failed). It'll unlikely affect the state-level elections unless the Libertarians are running a lot of candidates there to overtake control of that legislature, but hey if they do let's see how bad they can fuck up a state and let the bears sort it out.

Along with that big wish for the Presidential race - BALZ TO THE WALZ, Dems! - I hope we get to see this map for the Senatorial races happening across the nation.

Had to copy/paste this from 270towin,
 couldn't embed for some reason.

Even if Harris wins the Presidential race, it's going to hurt her if the Republicans regain control of the Senate - even by one seat - and stymie every Judicial and Cabinet nomination she brings to the table. It'd also be pretty to watch the pro-Insurrectionist GOP Senators like Missouri's Hawley get tossed out on their ass, while Rick "Medicare Fraud" Scott and Ted "Cancun" Cruz suffer for their evil ways. It'd be funny to see Scott get kicked out just as he's fighting to become the Republican party leader for the Senate as Mitch McConnell is stepping down from that role.

The real Senate map is a lot tighter - and more harrowing - as the seats for Texas, Florida, Missouri are threatening to stay Republican, while losing West Virginia as Joe Manchin retires and with Montana's Joe Tester under attack there. If the Dems can win the White House while tying it up 50-even in the Senate, the Vice Presidency to Walz becomes key, but damn it will make passing legislation a lot harder. So here's hoping a massive Democratic voter turnout EVERYwhere - especially Nebraska where an independent campaign backed by the Dems is doing well - secures a Blue Senate.

Along with the hopes for the Presidency and the Senate are hopes for the House to flip Democratic as well. Given how gerrymandering created an unfair advantage for the Republicans in 2022 and they STILL couldn't dominate control of that branch of government, the recent attempts in battleground states like Wisconsin to undo that damage could help in minor ways to allow the Dems a stronger shot. A massive Kamala/Walz Blue Wave that flips a lot of Red states should guarantee a massive flip in the House and give Jeffries the Speakership.

(I can't show a 270towin map for the House races because it's damn near impossible to work it)

I'm also hoping that this massive Blue Wave coincides with the ten state-level referenda - especially in Florida - that can override the wingnut legislatures and undo their anti-abortion laws that are punishing doctors and killing women. As long as voters make the mental connection that the Republicans running for state level and congressional seats are the ones responsible for those draconian laws and decide to vote them out for it, we should see major Democratic gains in those ten states.

This is all I'm hoping - and praying - for this election cycle, America.

I hope you are too, and doing your part to vote and get everyone else to vote alongside us.

Post 2000: The Road Travelled and the Road Ahead

Reaching my 2000th blog rant with this essay. With all the madness still going on this 2021, building on the madness we've witnessed since the year 2000 itself, this is a moment for reflection and introspection.

Looking back, I had started blogging to talk about reforms, needed Constitutional amendments to make our broken federal system correct itself. Along the way, I found myself diving into the partisan debates to the point I became a sideline critic. I think it was the aftermath of the 2008 elections - when Obama came to office and the Republicans doubled down on the obstruction - where I realized that sensible reforms were unlikely as long as one of the two major parties - who know which one, I'll give you a hint the name rhymes with "Republi-can't" - was batshit insane. I'll keep referring to John Cole about this forever and ever:

I really don’t understand how bipartisanship is ever going to work when one of the parties is insane. Imagine trying to negotiate an agreement on dinner plans with your date, and you suggest Italian and she states her preference would be a meal of tire rims and anthrax. If you can figure out a way to split the difference there and find a meal you will both enjoy, you can probably figure out how bipartisanship is going to work the next few years.

And he wrote that back in 2009. That was my wake-up call about how broken everything had gotten and was going to stay that way.

None of the changes I keep blogging in favor of - the end to gerrymandering, an end to the logjam in the Senate caused by Filibusters and Secret Holds, fair primaries for the Presidential campaigns, holding liars accountable, holding corrupt politicians accountable, getting rid of deficit-inducing tax cuts for the super-rich, holding the media accountable for their follies, building a better brighter world for our children to inherit - are going to happen because there are enough corrupt powers in high places - not just the whole Republican Party but also enough "centrist" Democrats eager to maintain their own power and wealth - who would rather keep the corrupt status quo or even make it worse.

Even when these reforms would benefit the Democratic Party overall - especially eliminating the gerrymandering going on right now that would skew U.S. House seating to Republican control in spite of the real demographics favoring Dems - we are all witnessing delays and foot-dragging due to the rigged Filibuster rules even with the Democrats in control of both houses of Congress and with Democratic President Biden sitting in the Oval Office prepared to sign any electoral reforms into law.

It would be pretty to think that eventually things will break in favor of reforms and opportunities for most Americans still struggling day to day. It won't come through thinking, though. It's going to have to come through action, especially the ones in office who have an obligation to fix the damage getting done and give us all an opportunity to breathe again.

It will take more commitment that just mere blogging, obviously. I have to - as much as the rest of us - do my part to push and motivate in the real world, to march when the moment of action arises, to speak in public when our voices should be heard, to vote and encourage others to vote to break the suppressive efforts the corrupt powers push down on us. 

Everything I've seen the past decade-plus while writing this blog has documented this spiral path downward, through the highs of witnessing Obama's transformational administration and the lows of trumpian rage, incompetence, and misrule. All the ongoing bloody struggle between the irrational and rational factions of America, with occasional glimpses of hope that this madness will pass.

That's what I have right now, looking ahead to the rants and posts awaiting me in the future on this blog. Just a little more hope.

Just a little more... 

In The Year 2021, Will a Just and Shining Future Finally Be Won

The year 2020 is officially ended, although much of the madness and dread that permeated that long long soul-sucking period of history - such as a trumpian administration sinking faster into corruption before Biden's inauguration - still awaits a future purging.

I still need to make a reckoning of that year - part of me wants to write up a Winners/Losers checklist but it's difficult to finish while the chaos is slipping to and fro - but in the meanwhile we do need to look ahead as Infidel753 does at his blog: 

1. When 2022 and 2024 arrive, most of the Democratic voting base will judge Biden and the Democrats in Congress mainly by results.  Has the pandemic been vanquished?  Have jobs and wages (not "the economy", which takes in all kinds of things, but jobs and wages specifically) recovered?  Has federal legislation to protect voting rights from state-level gerrymandering and vote suppression been enacted?  Has Medicare access been expanded or some other kind of public option been provided?  Have DC and Puerto Rico become states?  If the Democrats achieve results, our voters will care only that it was done, not how it was done.  Conversely, if little or nothing is accomplished, nobody will much care about whatever reasons or excuses are offered...

You need to go to Infidel's blog and read the whole article: It's not so much a checklist of a Liberal To Do List as it is a manual (and warning) of what to expect in the coming political cycle.

Much of what's coming is a pattern of destruction and obstruction we've already seen: The Republicans have already made it abundantly clear they will NOT respect the legitimacy of Biden's Presidency and will do everything to break it (and break the nation in the process). The Far Right media will obviously beat the "Impeach Biden" war drums within a day of Biden's swearing-in: for example, pinning the fault of 350,000+ Americans dead of COVID on his shoulders rather than on trump whose actual malfeasance in the affair was - and still is - the primary culprit in that tragedy.

The Republicans are going to spend 2021 - all of the 2020s decade - doing everything they can to hold onto the corrupt Minority Rule powers they wield. They've gotten to the point of Rule Or Ruin in their world-view, they no longer believe in the ebb-and-flow of power cycling between the major parties like it's done for much of the 20th Century. They're at the point that Republicans are terrified of the future... because the path forward from here follows the Democratic/Liberal ideals, not their own.

Half of what Infidel discusses on his article can only occur if the Democrats hold slim control of both halves of Congress, so with the Senate still on the edge with two Georgia Senatorial runoffs we can't be certain how far the Democratic agenda can go. All of what Infidel suggests is where it SHOULD go, such as the needed inclusions of new states to grant those regions - a broken Puerto Rico in particular - the legitimacy of statehood to stabilize their communities and promote better public service. A lot of what Infidel lists are things that should have been happening for ages, denied or blocked only because a calcifying Republican Party refused to see the merits of such efforts (has it ever occurred to Republicans that a habitually conservative Puerto Rican population could go Red and NOT Blue in future federal elections?) to even compromise or provide bipartisan effort to achieve them.

But Republicans can't and won't compromise any more: Politics is officially a Zero Sum game to them, so it's left to the Democrats to get things actually done anymore.

Which is where this coming decade offers so much potential for getting things done. While the Game of Demographics - the shift from older white conservative voting blocs to younger ethnically open liberal blocs - is still not really there yet for liberals to feel safe about achieving results - in health care reforms, civil rights, wage and employment rights, better education, a more just and loving world - the signs are aligning towards it.

What Biden, Harris, the Democratic leaders in Congress, the GOTV leadership of Democrats in battleground states -not just Stacey Abrams but thousands like her - what they can achieve this first year in a Biden Presidency is the foundation of a Liberal (not yet Progressive, sorry BernieBros) era that ought to repair not only the damage done by a vandal-plagued trump Era but also build past the roadblocks that Republicans have been throwing in our nation's path since 1994.

A lot of this still depends on those Georgia Senate races - the early voting on that (with huge numbers) wrapped up and the official election day for that is coming up next - to where none of us can feel safe about what's ahead. If Republicans can keep a slim 51-seat lead in the Senate, that means Mitch McConnell remains in power and can wield every obstructionist tool at his disposal to delay the Democrats' agenda for another two years at least.

If it comes to that, if Congress becomes a pit of McConnell's hellish desires, Biden and the Democrats can still try to rebuild as much of the federal system they can - while still wary of the conservative Judiciary trump and McConnell have built to oppose the oncoming Blue Path - with a dedicated effort to undercut the corruption the Republicans have been operating with at the state level. 

The long-term objective of breaking the Republican Minority Rule needs to focus on the insane level of Gerrymandering the Republicans commit at the state level in battleground states - Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida especially - and that the Far Right will keep deploying to suppress future Democratic voter turnout. There have been successes in weakening the Gerrymander efforts, but our nation has yet to find a way to kill those damn things outright. With the chaos trump infused into the 2020 U.S. Census efforts, it's likely the Republican-controlled states will use skewed numbers to Gerrymander even more to prevent Democratic majorities - even slim ones - in those states to elect honest proportional representation.

That's just one thing I can think of that Biden and the Democratic Party needs to be doing. Infidel's list of To Do's - again, go to that link - lists a whole lot more. Every one of them a necessary act to recover from this pandemic, from this economic malaise, to repair this collapsing edifice we know as the United States of America.

We should see an end to the trump years like the fading nightmare it's all been.

We are going to wake up to a busy decade of hard work. That shining future is just the morning sunrise. Get some coffee if you need it.

Midterms 2018: Hope and Dread

I feel hope from all the reports about the increased voter turnout for the early voting, and how a lot of it are the student-youth voters turning up at a record pace.

I feel dread from all the reports about the GOP using every voter suppression tactic in the books and getting away with most of them.

I feel hope from the reports of how people are helping minorities - especially in North Dakota and Kansas - work around the suppression efforts so that their votes WILL count.

I feel dread that the GOP is still gonna try to steal the midterms like they stole 2016 (GET OUT OF HERE, RUSSIAN SOCIAL MEDIA BOTS).

The best thought I have is "Turnout Beats Suppression". The GOP can't stop every vote, and can't flip every ballot false. If the final polling says Dems won by +6 it's gonna cause a stink if the GOP get +6 of the results. So they can only cheat just a little bit, just enough to eke out "wins" at +1 or +2 while claiming the polls were wrong after all.

But the more people vote - and the more they vote BLUE - the harder it gets to cheat. Too many people will figure out there should have been no way the votes went for the Republicans, and there will be hell to pay when they figure that out.

THIS IS WHY TURNOUT MATTERS. Especially when the numbers point to a majority of voters being Democratic or Left-Leaning (especially in an election cycle where the Indy voters are adamantly opposed to trump and the GOP). This is why I hope enough voters have had enough of decades of state misrule by Republicans here in Florida.

I am hoping Andrew Gillum's campaign to be Florida's Governor succeeds, and he can clean up the decades of mess the Republicans have made.

I hope Bill Nelson (GO GATORS) beats Rick "Medicare Fraud" Scott, a crooked SOB who SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN Governor in the first place (twice!) >:( I hope Nelson's win will be part of flipping control of the Senate away from that obstructionist monster McConnell.

I hope enough voters hating trump know they can change control of the US House to Democrat and force that corrupt con artist to answer to the law.

GET THE VOTE OUT THIS TUESDAY NOVEMBER 6th.

Vote Blue.

This matters.

For the LOVE of GOD, this matters.

The Future

Link to Latina.com article

This is Emma Gonzalez.

She is one of the teens who survived the mass shooting at Stoneman Douglas High in Parkland FL.

She is just eighteen years old (or close to it).

She probably hasn't even figured out what she's wearing to her prom, if she's going.

She's facing down the NRA, the Republican Party, the gun crazies, everyone who doesn't support gun safety laws.

She's terrifying them to the point where they're openly insulting her, creating fake photoshopped images of her, doing everything they can to dismiss her.

She won't go away.

Emma Gonzalez is the future. Her and hundreds of thousands like her: teenagers and college students who grew up in the shadow of Columbine and are sick to death over the inaction and cowardice of the Republicans refusing to do anything to reduce/end gun violence in our nation.

She's going to be old enough to vote this year, her and hundreds of thousands like her. All of them single-issue voters willing to vote every pro-NRA pol out of office. Which affects every Republican pol currently in office.

If she can't vote this year, she certainly will by 2020, when it's a Presidential cycle and there's more at stake for the GOP. Her and hundreds of thousands like her.

I should say "millions" instead of "hundreds of thousands", but you get the drift.

The Republican strategists saw decades ago a demographic shift away from white majority population, and then gambled hard on going all-in on stoking white voter fears to create a voting base that gave them victories but declining overall support. That white voter base - mostly older, mostly uneducated, mostly wingnut - is getting outnumbered by the Millennial generation that's more educated, more tech-savvy, more angry at injustice. We're getting to the tipping point where that Whites-Only strategy kills the GOP.

We're getting to the point where the Face of America isn't Ivanka Trump.

The Face of America is Emma Gonzalez.

The future is hers.

March For Our Lives in Lakeland (w/ Update)

Today the teens of our nation took to the streets to protest against school shootings, against weapons of death, against political inaction due to the NRA's overwhelming influence on government.

Via NBC News:

On Saturday, hundreds of thousands of students gathered in the nation's capitol and at sister marches across the country and around the world to deliver a powerful, unified message: Enough is enough...

...Students from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School organized and hosted the main event on the mall in Washington with the U.S. Capitol in the background, a stark reminder of why they were demanding change.

"We hereby promise to fix the broken system we've been forced into and create a better world for the generations to come," Cameron Kasky, one of the student organizers told a cheering crowd filled with teenagers. "Don't worry, we've got this..."

The most powerful moment came when Emma Gonzalez, one of the more prominent Parkland students in the movement, gave her speech:

After listing the names of the 17 people killed when a gunman rampaged through her school on Valentine's Day, Gonzalez asked the crowd to fathom how so many could be murdered in only 6 minutes and 20 seconds.

And then she stopped speaking.

Silent minutes ticked by. Then an alarm beeped.

"Since the time that I came out here, it has been 6 minutes and 20 seconds," she said finally. "The shooter has ceased shooting, and will soon abandon his rifle, blend in with the students as they escape and walk free for an hour before arrest."

She added: "Fight for your lives before it's someone else's job."

I just wanna live long enough to vote for her as President, okay God?

That was all in Washington DC. Here at home, there were shared rallies same as across the nation. In Tampa, they figured they had around 15,000 showing up to call for action on gun safety.

Closer to home, I went to the rally happening in Lakeland, and I got some pics:

Munn Park in downtown Lakeland

The early minutes before the rally began

This was a rally organized by the teens but for all ages to attend!

Voter Registration by the League of Women Voters

The speakers deliver their calls to action, and in poetry

Sharing out the signs

I figured around 100 people showed up

The message is pretty simple:

The kids want stronger gun safety laws.

They're angry at politicians who are in the NRA's pocket who won't do anything about it.

They're registering to vote.

And they are going to vote on this single issue: Guns.

They will vote you out, pols, if you are taking even a penny from the gun-makers and their lobby of doom.

And if you don't think they can't do that, do a head count.

The Millennial generation just got to where they outnumber the Boomers.

Turnout matters, granted, but these kids are on a mission. They're sick of school lockdowns and dreading the day it'll be their turn they won't come home after another mass shooting.

These teens are going to keep working on this issue. They're gonna vote this November.

Gods. This feels good.

Update: As Larry mentions in the comments, there were organized buses of students going to the Orlando protest and not the Tampa one. Orlando had 20,000 show up (!)

Killing the Gerrymander: A Season of Hope

Update: Hello again to the Crooks & Liars audience coming here via Mike's Blog Round-Up! Thank you as always to Batocchio for inviting onto the list, and again to everyone here please visit, I have other rants and rampages to read at this blog.


For all my ranting on the sidelines about getting rid of the gerrymander, there is someone else out there - Hi, Paul! - doing the heavy lifting, and GOD BLESS HIM FOR IT.

Via Slate.com:

Both Democrats and Republicans deploy partisan gerrymandering to dilute votes for their opponents, creating one-party rule and, arguably, greater polarization. That’s bad for the body politic and a clear contravention of the Constitution. But as long as the courts refuse to step in, gerrymandering will continue to plague the country...

Now Paul Smith, one of the greatest legal minds in the country, is asking the Supreme Court to finally put a stop to it. And here’s the exciting part: He might actually succeed...

KEEL IT! KEEL THE GERRYMANDER!!!

Ahem.

...The difficulty in curbing partisan gerrymandering has not been in convincing judges that the practice is unconstitutional—the Supreme Court has found that it is—it’s convincing judges that they can fix it.

In 2004’s Vieth v. Jubelirer, which Smith argued, five justices agreed that partisan gerrymandering likely violated the Constitution. But one of these justices, Anthony Kennedy, wasn’t sure quite how to fix the problem, and so he voted with the conservative justices to toss out a challenge to a Pennsylvania gerrymander - without closing the door to future lawsuits. In a concurring opinion, Kennedy wrote that partisan gerrymandering seems to unconstitutionally “burden representational rights” by “penalizing citizens” because of their “association with a political party” or their “expression of political views.” Still, Kennedy insisted, courts should not intervene until they could articulate “principles of fairness in districting” - specifically, a formula to decide when the burden placed on representational rights crosses the line into unconstitutionality. Otherwise, he argued, the results from one gerrymandering case to the next would likely be disparate and inconsistent...

So Smith and his people figured out a formula:

This formula - called the “efficiency gap” - cites two types of “wasted votes” in the redistricting process: “lost votes” cast in favor of a defeated candidate, and “surplus votes” cast in favor of a winning candidate that weren’t actually necessary for the candidate’s victory. The efficiency gap is, in Stephanopoulos’ words, “the difference between the parties’ respective wasted votes in an election, divided by the total number of votes cast.”

When both Democrats and Republican waste roughly the same number of votes, the efficiency gap is near zero. That means voters on both sides had a fair shot at securing their desired representation. When a party gerrymanders its opponents into the minority, however, it will “waste” fewer votes than its opponents, causing the efficiency gap to rise. A historical analysis of elections across from the country since 1972 suggests that an efficiency gap of 7 percent will entrench the majority party’s power until new maps are drawn. Wisconsin’s Republican-drawn gerrymander has an efficiency gap of 13 percent, meaning a huge number of Wisconsinites are currently deprived of their representational rights solely because they are Democrats.

This formula may sound like an oddly technical method for ensuring basic representational equality. But the justices have waded into algebraic waters before. The court has long held that the Constitution enshrines the principle of “one person, one vote,” meaning districts should contain about the same number of people so that no vote counts more or less than others. But over several decades, it has had to decide what amount of deviation from the “one person, one vote” principle was constitutionally permissible. Ultimately, the court found that the deviation between the population of the largest and smallest districts in a state cannot exceed 10 percent...

So based on this efficiency gap formula, the Wisconsin gerrymanders at 13 percent goes well beyond the historical skewing, and can well violate the "one person one vote" axiom that judicial review relies on.

As the article noted, the district court already sided with Smith and the Efficiency Gap. There is demonstrated evidence of gerrymandering affecting the voters' ability to choose their representatives, and given the legal arguments against gerrymandering there's a solid chance that the Supreme Court - even this conservative one - would accept the evidence and rule in Smith's favor.

Getting this formula set to reconfigure electoral districting at a state and federal level would go a long way towards ensuring a more accurate representation of the voters across the nation. It would certainly force the political parties to be more responsive to the voters and less towards the mapmakers.

Here's hoping Paul Smith gets the Supreme Court to agree with him.

Here's hoping the gerrymander dies a quick death before 2018 (or at least 2020).

A Good Kind Of Crazy: Bittersweet Yet Hopeful

Update: hello to the Crooks And Liars readers linking here from Mikes Blog Roundup.

Remember how, back in 2013, during the week of the Boston bombing, that was like one of the craziest weeks in American history?  Kind of how The Onion called it, it was crazy and it was heartbreaking and it was a kind of week to not remember.

We just basically had a crazy week just now, from the Charleston shooting until today. And while there was tragedy, there was also inspiration, and reflection and awareness, and justice, and drive, and emotional cleansing, and hope, and above all love. Especially love, today, tonight, this weekend.  It was a week to remember.

Hundreds gather out front, holding aloft their smartphones
so they can document the celebration.

Last week Wednesday night started us off with the tragic breaking news of the shooting at the Emanuel AME Charleston church.  It sparked a round of angry calls across the nation, over the intent of the shooter, the signs of racism that surrounded the city and the state of South Carolina (and the Deep South) itself, and the horror of gun violence visited again on another sanctuary where should not imagine such a happening.

The Far Right, led by their political figures especially the Republican candidates for the 2016 Presidency, tried to avoid talking about the shooting altogether.  Worse, some tried to claim that "nobody could tell what the shooter's intent was," even though survivors reported the shooter explained himself as he pulled the trigger.  Having spent 40 years pushing a Southern Strategy of White Male resentment, Republicans suddenly realized the bill was coming due.

With the shooter's arrest, more details got out, verifying the shooter knew exactly what he was doing and why: his racist declaration of war, and what inspired him to find a Black church to begin his misdeeds.  The shooter had bought into the fear-mongering about Blacks, bought into the "heritage" of Southern resentment, bought into the need for violence against those who were unarmed.

By Monday after the police interrogation went public - proving exactly what happened and why - and after more photos surfaced of the shooter reveling in displays of the Stars and Bars, calls to have the Confederate Battle Flag - the key symbol of the Lost Cause, the symbol of race hatred for 150 years - taken down from public buildings multiplied to the point where the South Carolina governor Nikki Haley had to go public herself, calling for legislation to take the damn thing down off of her state's public forums (in a mockery of law, the state made it mandatory that the Confederate flag remains flying at all costs: when the American flag was lowered in honor of the dead, it just made the contrast more stark and shameful).  In other states like Alabama, they just quietly lowered the damn flag and looked away.

Much of the week ended up with a back-and-forth battle on the media channels and the Internet over the "heritage" of the flag, over the right of free speech vs. the actuality of hate speech that flag represented.  It was becoming clear that everything that battle flag represented - Jim Crow, racial oppression, a section of our population obsessed with a violent and bloody past - was and still is in risk of imploding on itself (which is, you know, a good thing).

And then Thursday we get good news, with the Supreme Court ruling - and a strong one at that - affirming the core point of Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) was to provide affordable healthcare to most Americans.  A lot of celebration about how this was a huge victory for Obama, a huge win for Americans needing that healthcare coverage.

(there was an image here but it had been removed so... working on a replacement image)

And then Friday, two things.  The Supreme Court issued the key ruling on gay marriage - on marriage itself - as a self-evident right to all under the 14th Amendment.  Twitter and social media exploded.  Haters raged.  Lovers danced.  The United States officially became Pro-People.

In the midst of all this, our nation returned its attention to Charleston once more, as President Obama showed up to perform the eulogy for the fallen pastor Reverend Clementa Pinckney.  In that moment, in that place, Obama offered the most stirring, most profound speech he's ever given.  (link here to full speech)



He openly condemned the flying of the Confederate Battle Flag.  He openly condemned the shameful rate of gun violence in our nation, harking back to the tragedies of Sandy Hook and so many other mass shootings.  He openly condemned the fear-mongering and the hate poisoning the national forum.

And Obama spoke of love.  Obama spoke of faith, and forgiveness, and family.  Obama spoke of grace.  Human, Christian Grace.

...Blinded by hatred, the alleged killer could not see the grace surrounding Reverend Pinckney and that Bible study group: the light of love that shone as they opened the church doors and invited a stranger to join in their prayer circle.  The alleged killer could have never anticipated the way the families of the fallen would respond when they saw him in court: in the midst of unspeakable grief, with words of forgiveness.  He couldn’t imagine that...  

The alleged killer could not imagine how the city of Charleston, under the good and wise leadership of Mayor Riley - how the state of South Carolina, how the United States of America would respond: not merely with revulsion at his evil act, but with big-hearted generosity and, more importantly, with a thoughtful introspection and self-examination that we so rarely see in public life...

Blinded by hatred, he failed to comprehend what Reverend Pinckney so well understood: the power of God’s grace.

This whole week, I’ve been reflecting on this idea of grace. 

The grace of the families who lost loved ones.  The grace that Reverend Pinckney would preach about in his sermons.  The grace described in one of my favorite hymnals, the one we all know:  Amazing Grace, how sweet the sound that saved a wretch like me...  I once was lost, but now I’m found; was blind but now I see...

According to the Christian tradition, grace is not earned.  Grace is not merited.  It’s not something we deserve.  Rather, grace is the free and benevolent favor of God as manifested in the salvation of sinners and the bestowal of blessings.  Grace.

As a nation, out of this terrible tragedy, God has visited grace upon us, for he has allowed us to see where we’ve been blind.  He has given us the chance, where we’ve been lost, to find our best selves. We may not have earned it, this grace, with our rancor and complacency, and short-sightedness and fear of each other... but we got it all the same.  He gave it to us anyway.  He’s once more given us grace.  But it is up to us now to make the most of it, to receive it with gratitude, and to prove ourselves worthy of this gift.

And then Obama tried - bless him, but he was a bit off-key - to sing Amazing Grace, the Christian hymn above all other hymnals.

The speech, the presence, the words and the faith: all inspiring.  Closing out a day of grace and good-will.  We're still fighting - the haters are still railing against the tide of history and that long arc towards justice - but now there's a sense of real hope, that we're growing wiser, that we're seeing the problems for real this time, that there's something to fight FOR and a future worth keeping our promises.

This was a crazy week. But even with the pain of loss it was a good crazy.

Hong Kong Up In Protest, Showing How It's Done

Holy sh-t dudes:

Hong Kong police fired tear gas and pepper spray on pro-democracy protesters on Sunday, after a sit-in that began Friday escalated into demonstrations involving as many as tens of thousands of people over the weekend. Holding signs saying “Disperse or We Fire,” cops threw cans of tear gas into the crows in the Admiralty district near the main government offices. The police struggled at times to contain protesters, failing to keep them from blocking traffic on a six-lane highway. Students and the Occupy Central movement have been leading pro-democracy demonstrations after China announced Hong Kong's 2017 leadership election candidates would have to be screened by a separate committee.

As part of the reunification of China and Hong Kong when Great Britain's lease was up in 1997 was that Hong Kong would retain some political independence:

In accordance with the One Country, Two Systems principle agreed between the United Kingdom and the People's Republic of China, the socialist system of People's Republic of China would not be practiced in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), and Hong Kong's previous capitalist system and its way of life would remain unchanged for a period of 50 years.

Uh, pardon my American ignorance of math or calendar-reading, but 2014 subtracting 1997 is nowhere near 50 years.

Great.  The Chinese politburo couldn't contain themselves for 50 years, they just had to go messing with Hong Kong in 20.  You'd think the Chinese reputation for Zen-like patience would stick here, but noooooo.

Didn't some of the Tienanmen protesters end up in Hong Kong and stay there even after 1997 (I know a lot fled further to Taiwan and the US just to be certain they were safe)?  For what I know, Hong Kong is one of those places in China where freedom of expression and freedom to think was still taught and encouraged.

It's a good thing the Hong Kong residents grew up with an idea of the necessity of civil protest against some of the more negative things their home nation has done and can do.  None of that blind obedience to authority and their corporate overlords like they teach here in America, right Jefferson County School Board?  Yeah... right.

So Iran Went Purple

That's okay.  I can do purple.

Has it really been four years since the tragedy of the last Iranian election?  Time flies, I guess, when you're distracted by job-hunting and Scott-raging.  So it's got to be 2013, time for the Iranian people to take the moment when the ayatollahs pretend it's not a theocracy and vote for a President.

And they still openly voted for the most moderate candidate allowed to run.  The apparent winner, cleric Hassan Rouhani, is so far garnering just over 50 percent of the vote, avoiding the need for a run-off election.  Rouhani may be a cleric but politically he was positioned as a moderate, and got pretty much every endorsement of the "Khamenei-Can-Kiss-Our-Persian-Butts" crowd.  The preferred candidate for the hard-line crowd - Saheed Jalili - placed a distant third (and by distant I'm talking from-here-to-Pluto range).

Realistically this doesn't change much.  As Grand Ayatollah, Khamenei still holds all the real power (the military and the street enforcers).  But Rouhani can affect significant change and possibly do a lot to end the economic turmoil that years of corruption have created.  Presenting a more moderate leadership might help ease some of the economic sanctions half the globe has placed on Iran over their questionable nuclear program.

If anything, Rouhani's win as the openly accepted "reformer" candidate is a huge extended middle finger aimed in Khamenei's direction.  He did his best to keep real reformer candidates - Rafsanjani especially - off the ballot... and still got slapped in the face by a majority of Iranians.  Four years of bullying has not broken the spirit of the Iranians: they remain defiant.

The buzz is that the candidates from 2009 still under house arrest may be released any minute now.  The streets are filled with celebrants.  Here's hoping this stays peaceful and joyous.

For Everyone Looking to Shop Til They Drop

As mentioned yesterday, Mrs. Coates wanted a t-shirt logo, and what Mrs. Coates wants Mrs. Coates gets.

So now, at Cafe Press, we have the I Heart Metrosexual Black Lincoln store, complete with t-shirts, drinking glasses, tablet covers, one hat, some wall decor, and a keychain.

As a refresher, the front logo is this: 

Additional items to be added in the future.

By the way, I need to add links to the Lost Battalion merch store and maybe my ebook locales...

For the Benefit of Mrs. Coates

Somewhere on the Twitterverse, Ta-Nehisi asked for a t-shirt logo for "I Heart Metrosexual Black Lincoln" in response to the aborted wingnut attempt to insult Barack Obama for being Pro-People.

In response, I crafted both a front design and back design for a t-shirt:

To your left, the logo for the front t-shirt.


















To your right, the message for the back t-shirt.

I need input.  Does this look good?  Readable?

I need suggestions of possible improvements, maybe something more concise to say on the backside of the tee.

I hope to get this up in a new CafePress store by tonight.

Let me know!

Our President of the United States Is Pro-People. And There Is Much Rejoicing.

There was a video clip to the ABC News interview with President Obama, but the link is broken now and I'll have to relocate a new video. Update: Found a YouTube clip!

Money quote: "I have to tell you that over the course of several years as I have talked to friends and family and neighbors when I think about members of my own staff who are in incredibly committed monogamous relationships, same-sex relationships, who are raising kids together, when I think about those soldiers or airmen or Marines or sailors who are out there fighting on my behalf and yet feel constrained, even now that 'Don't Ask Don't Tell' is gone, because they are not able to commit themselves in a marriage, at a certain point I’ve just concluded that for me personally it is important for me to go ahead and affirm that I think same sex couples should be able to get married."

For the most part, this doesn't change much in getting voters to switch to Obama's side come November: people who hated on Obama already were also hating on Teh Gay.

But what this does do is excite the Democratic base and independent voters (and disaffected Republicans) who are pro-civil-rights.  It's one thing to be voting AGAINST someone (it's very easy to despise now-established candidate Mitt Romney and the current Republican Party as a bunch of bullying lying scumbuckets), but it's a lot more satisfying to be able to vote FOR someone.

And Obama is making it very easy to vote FOR him.  It's not just for marriage equality: I've been impressed with Obama's move on women's issues such as getting the Ledbetter Fair Pay Act passed, nominating a sizable number of women to key government positions (including two women to the Supreme Court, bringing that just body to reflect our nation's actual population of men-to-women), standing up for Planned Parenthood when the GOP leadership is trying to outright kill it, getting his Obamacare to lower costs and raise coverages for women, et al.

This is something I've been saying since Obama came out for marriage equality: this isn't so much a pro-gay move as it is a pro-people move.  Obama is Pro-People.

And I'm all for that.

If There's One Good Thing About Egypt's Protests

And it's something that's taken some time to comprehend, but I think this is a key fact and something the U.S. and western allies can base their hopes on:

The Egyptians that are protesting are doing so AGAINST President Mubarak and FOR open elections/government.  The one thing they ARE NOT doing is protesting for a mullah-led or theocratic government like what happened in Iran.

They've used prayer as a means of protest, sure.  It's Islam: public praying five times a day toward Mecca is a given, and it's a great way to organize and gather.  But the protesters are NOT gathering around any particular spiritual leader.  There's not a mullah or ayatollah being touted as the Next Great Savior.  They're also leaving F-CK MUBARAK graffiti everywhere, in the honored and storied tradition of ancient Roman wall artists.

The biggest concern is that, yes, the Muslim Brotherhood is the group that has the most to gain if Mubarak gets kicked out.  And the Brotherhood is fundamentalist and way against women rights.  But there are other groups in Egypt, and there is a moderate political opponent (Mohamed ElBaradei) around whom the protesters have rallied (he's a lawyer, international nuclear arms regulator with the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize on his resume). AND the Brotherhood isn't the group that will have a final say... it's actually the military, which profits from U.S. aid and will most likely push for a more moderate government once the revolution ends.

Here's hoping the Egyptian military keeps their word that they will not fire on unarmed and peaceful protesters.  Here's hoping the protesters keep the peace as they speak for their nation's reforms.  Here's hoping Egypt becomes another Turkey and not an Iran.  And here's hoping that when (not if, this isn't North Korea nor China, and the whole world is watching now) Mubarak leaves, the Egyptians' anger towards the U.S. (which has backed Mubarak all these decades in the expediency of international security) abates.

Iran: It's Been A Year

The elections that began the whole brouhaha that ought to lead to Iranian democracy happened last year.

As I've written then and is relevant now:

Now, it's 2009. Ayatollah Khamenei basically calls a questionable election result too early and too eagerly for Ahmadinejad. Even though enough Iranians know among themselves there's no way Ahmad could have won all those provinces so handily, even with widespread reports of ballot box tampering and fraud. Now acting like a bullying teenager caught in a weak lie, Khamenei is threatening violence on anyone who dares question him, and starts acting in a very Shah-like manner with violent arrests, use of acid sprays, the works. Thing is, for all of Khamenei's rhetoric against the Brits, and the Americans, and Zionists and 'foreign interlopers', the Iranian people know that's not really true. There's no evidence the Brits or the Russians or the Americans tampered with the election. It wasn't BBC or Fox News rushing to proclaim Ahmadinejad the winner "by divine will" inside of an hour after the polls closed. This time, the Iranians have no one to blame but their own leaders. And that's why I think the protests are going to continue, because Khamenei is now the target of blame. The violence will get worse, which is the pity of it all, but it's not gonna stop until he's gone. 

Keep the good fight going.  Freedom for my peeps.

And make this guy proud.

It's his anniversary too.

It's Just The Mood I'm In

I'd love to post more often.
There tends to be a lot of things going on in the political scene that I'd love to comment on.
Part of the problem is that most of the time, other people (especially the ones I've got linked to the side here) say things exactly the way I'm thinking, so repeating them gets to feel redundant.
Part of the problem is I have distractions - looking for work, for example, or trying to snap another bout of crippling writer's block - that keep me from the blogging here.
Mostly, though, it's the depression.  I know I got it, I've taken meds for it before, but a shift in work locations ended that and I never got back to it at the new workplace and so...  And then I lost my focus at work, and then I lost my job, and... And part of me doesn't want to use this depression as an excuse, you know?  But it's piling on top of me, one thing feeding the other, and the depression coming from the lack of work and turning right around to discourage me as I look for new work, and so on.
I'd love to go to the doctor's and see about getting back onto some kind of antidepressant, but my COBRA runs out in June and so what's the point of trying to start up a treatment that's not even going to last for 3 months?  It'd be nice if they ever develop an OTC antidepressant that's non-addictive / non-lethal so I wouldn't have to freaking worry about the bills and the medical bureaucracy.
But on the bright side, this prolonged unemployment is giving me motivation to look into running for the US Senate!  Why not?  It's a job, isn't it?  The hours are good and the pay/benefits are great!  So all I gotta do is convince enough Floridians to vote for me as a write-in candidate come November and WOOT!  I got a job.  And I can't be any worse than this SOB who just screwed half the country over for some ego-driven BS (holding up unemployment benefits for 27 million Americans?  Forcing thousands of federal employees out of work?  Smart move, Bunning.  You just proved the liberals and their blogger buddies right about you and your GOP buddies being uncaring BASTARDS).
So vote for me!  Wartenberg in 2010!  I NEED THE WORK!  (Most Honest Campaign Platform Ever.)

Iran: Known as 22 Bahman

Today was (as I'm writing this the day there has passed into night) a big day for Iran.  22 Bahman is the official day of victory for the Iranian Revolution under the Ayatollahs.

And as such the protesters against Ayatollah Khamenei's rule were out in force.  Even as the ones in power (Khamenei and his presidential puppet Ahmadinejad) tried to control the media both inside and out, and as they tried to present themselves as firmly in control (only by force, not by popular acclaim).

Sullivan (and his blog wranglers) payed attention for the whole day.  The link here is to a wrap-up: check the rest of his site for the various updates and retorts.

The only thing keeping Khamenei in power now is his corrupt personal army/police and basij street thugs.  They have the guns, but the Iranian people have the numbers and the will.

Just pray to God this all ends with as little bloodshed as possible.  And that it ends soon.

Blood In The Streets

There's blood in the streets it's up to my ankles/
Blood in the streets it's up to my knee/
Blood in the streets in the town of Chicago Ashura/
Blood on the rise, it's following me...
-- The Doors "Peace Frog"

The rioting in Iran is getting worse. People are dying in the streets again, rumors and unconfirmed stories flying everywhere. The regime might have killed Mousavi's nephew. Mousavi himself may be in a hospital.

Additional reports that there are some police refusing to fire on protesters. The scary thing is still the same as from June: whether or not the regular Iranian army gets involved. The Revolutionary Guard is clearly with Khamenei, but the army is still on the fence...

If you've got friends and family over there, I pray they stay safe. I've said in earlier posts that this kind of violence was still possible, and truly it can get worse. If only, if only... If only Khamenei realizes he's not going to win no matter how many bodies pile up at his feet...

Observations Before The Holidays Consume My Time Pt.7

• Hadn't posted recently about events in Iran, where things have taken a turn. An ayatollah, a major player from the 1970s revolution named Montazeri who was a well-known moderating figure and who could have been the grand ayatollah (thus the current grand poohbah Khamenei's most prominent opposition threat)... well he recently passed away. Just on the eve of a grand national period in Iran, a week of national mourning, meaning the chance to grieve his passing is going to give the corrupt regime nightmares and give the Green uprising the opportunity they need to take once more to the streets with legitimacy. Sullivan again is posting updates as often as possible. This is going to be a scary, unsettling, and God willing a hopeful week the nation of Iran is entering...
• I didn't pass the A+ Essentials exam I took yesterday. I need to take it again very soon.
• MightyGodKing recently posted probably the best short story I've read in years. It tells a "What If" historical revision where the Beatles take up SNL's infamous offer to re-unite on the show for $3000, starting off humorous but then as the tale unfolds enters into darker themes. At first reading, it ends on an odd note, but it forces you to loop back, as the hero of the story loops back and you read it again and pick up on things you missed in the first telling... as supplement, read MGK's answer to how he came up with the story ideas...
• The more I watch the craziness unfold in Congress the more I want to join the Modern Whigs and see about running for office myself. I swear I couldn't make things worse than they are...