Tuesday, August 16, 2016

I Admit This Makes Me Feel Good. Still GET THE VOTE OUT FOR HILLARY, FLORIDA...

Actually I dunno if this counts as Schadenfreude, but I am laughing my ass off.

Among Sunshine State voters likely to participate in November’s presidential election, 48 percent currently support Clinton and 39 back Trump.  Another 6 percent intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1 percent support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with 5 percent who are undecided.
Among self-identified Democrats, 92 percent support Clinton while 4 choose Trump and just 3 back a third party candidate. Trump has less support among his own party base, with 79 percent of Republicans who back their nominee, compared to 12 who support Clinton and 5 who back another candidate.  Clinton leads Trump among independents by 47 percent to 30, with 11 supporting Johnson and 2 backing Stein.
Clinton has an overwhelming lead among Hispanic, black and Asian voters who make up about one-third of the electorate, garnering 69 percent of this group’s vote to 19 for Trump.  Trump leads among white voters by 51 percent to 37, but there is a significant gender split.  Among white men, Trump has a 64 percent to 24 advantage.  Among white women, Clinton leads by 49 percent to 39.  There is no difference by educational attainment, with Trump ahead among white voters without a college degree (51 to 39) as well as white college graduates (50 to 36).


Of key interest: Hillary has near full support of her own party at 92 percent, while Trump only has 79 percent. By comparison, Romney got well over 90 percent of GOP support nationwide: where Florida can reflect most of the nation, Trump is struggling still to secure his own base.

And of course, the gender split between Whites is where the Women vote matters. Trump just cannot survive on White Men alone.

When more than one poll post-convention is showing that you're losing a state, you're losing that state. Granted, anything can happen around debate time, but if the polling remains this consistent, it's not going to flip on its own. And when the polling difference (9 percent) is greater than the Margin Of Error number (3 or 4 percent usually), you're losing.

Trump is losing Florida, and is doing so in a way that is making my Sunshine State a solid Blue. No more Toss-Up for us, folks. Let me just map this out for you.

California is our biggest Electoral state at 55 votes. Texas is next at 38. Then you get a two-way tie between New York and Florida at 29. And then you get to Illinois (needs fresher polling) and Pennsylvania at 20.

According to the average polling for each of the six biggest states, you get this map:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Out of the six biggest states, only ONE of them is reliably Republican anymore for Presidential races. And even Texas is closer than it looks as the demographics for Latino votes may yet flip that state (it all depends on turnout).

Hillary's got 153 EV wrapped up already while Trump only has 38. She's halfway to the 270 finish line. Throw in how Hillary is wrapping up Virginia and Colorado and New Jersey and Massachusetts and nearly every other big electoral state and you are looking at Democratic dominance for the White House not just for this election cycle but the three or four afterward (hello, 2028!). The next comfortable state for Trump is Tennessee at 11 EV, because Ohio and Michigan lean Blue and Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are Toss-Ups now.

What happened here is that the Republicans decided a long time ago to play their game by Geography and Demographics rather than offering leadership and solutions towards a broad set of national issues. They looked to lock up certain states and they looked to lock up White voters at the expense of the other ethnics (Blacks, Latinos, Asians). This worked when White voters would vote as a cohesive block (say, 1984): Today, they don't. White voters have fractured by gender (White Women are rejecting the GOP at an alarming rate), age (younger voters are rejecting the GOP), and education level (college-level Whites are keeping their distance).

That turns into a major drawback in the heavily-urban, heavily-populated, heavily-educated states. They've kept control over Texas over purely cultural / social conservative stances, but even that's starting to fail them.

And now here comes Trump, alienating nearly every voting bloc other than Low-Education White Males. That's not enough to win at the national level anymore. Maybe a few Senate elections, clearly the House elections where congressional districts favor gerrymandering out into the exurbs where most conservative Whites live. But the White House is going to be off-limits to the Far Right now and for the near future.

Just as long as the demographics that matter - Women, Blacks, Latinos, Asians, Young, and Educated Whites - turn up in droves at the ballot box this November.


Let's get it to where Hillary wins the Electoral College before the poll closings reach the Mississippi River.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

It's doable.

1 comment:

dinthebeast said...

According to Steve Kornacki's map, Hillary could lose Florida and Ohio and still win. That's assuming that she uses her formidable resources and gets out the vote, something I have decided to trust her campaign to accomplish.
Now for the down-ballot, drag-the-country-kicking-and-screaming-to-sanity project...

-Doug in Oakland