Monday, November 07, 2016

The Last Day To Panic If You Like

Panicking? Who says I'm panicking?!

Just a little nervous and agitated and horrified we're one vote away from a goddamn bankrupt sexist racist con artist in Donald Trump being in the White House. WHY SHOULD ANYBODY BE WORRIED?!?!?!?!?!

Granted, I'm feeling a little better right now reading up on the last-minute news on the Early Voting surge we had in Florida. Turnout was higher than in 2012 for early voting, which foretells a likely higher turnout overall by the end of Tuesday night. The last-minute turnout of Black voters - who seem to wait for the last Sunday to vote as they organize at their churches and head to the ballot booths en masse - combined with a higher turnout of Latinos is heartening. I'd like to think that with solid returns from Dems and Left-leaning Indys that Florida will go for Hillary.

I'm really heartened by this William & Mary poll that had around 28 percent of registered Republicans in Florida voting FOR Hillary. That's incredible: the partisan nature of party affiliation rarely allows that much crossover. By comparison, Mitt Romney had nationwide about 93 percent support of GOP voters with only 6 percent flipping to Obama. If this division in Florida reflects the overall voter turnout - some state Republicans might be all-in for Trump, others might have more flipping to Hillary - then Trump is seriously toast. Considering how unpopular Trump remains even among Republicans, he could be losing many more voters than Romney did and Romney lost the general election. (I haven't seen any comparable losses for Hillary, who seems to have the Democratic base locked up).

So in terms of Hillary, I'm feeling a bit okay. Where I'm stressing out are the down-ballot races for Senate and House. Kinda know that the House may not be winnable thanks to gerrymandering, but there's a slight probability a voter turnout surge for Hillary in key states combined with women voting against Republicans (out of spite for Trump and other ills the GOP inflicts on women) could make those "safe" districts moot. Thing is, the fate of the House is outside much of what I can do other than voting here in Florida for the Congressional Democrats.

It's the Senate that bothers me. Some of the final pundit predictions are leaning towards the whole thing literally going 50-50, which is simply nerve-wracking (and it may mean each Senate bill has to have the Vice President issue tie-breakers). There's some polling suggesting the Republicans might keep the Senate. If that happens, especially with a Hillary win, we're going to face open and unending obstruction on everything: The Republicans will never "allow" Hillary to win (they hate her more than they ever hated Obama), and will spite the Constitution to do so.

I'd much rather see the Senate flip with a decent majority to the Democrats. I'd much rather see Murphy beat Rubio here in Florida, and the Dems winning in Nevada and New Hampshire and Missouri and North Carolina and Illinois and Wisconsin (FEINGOLD!) and it's possible Louisiana might grant the Dems a shot (they go by run-off with the top two vote-getters) and... and yeah. There's a lot of wishful thinking there.

To my mind, a sane election result should look like this for Hillary:

Utah going to the not-Trump GOP candidate McGuffin, McGruff, MacAndcheese, you know, that guy...
I'm hearing that Iowa and Ohio may flip to to Trump depending on turnout, and I worry about North Carolina where the voter suppression effort may have a real effect on the final tally, but I'd like to think sanity will prevail where it needs to, and that Trump is going to lose that many voters. Still, I know we can't take this for granted... I know, I KNOW...

I'd love the Senate map to end up like this:

Click the map to create your own at

I'd like to think the voter surge in Florida - combined with the improved polling Murphy gained on No-Show Rubio this past month - means that Florida gives Hillary both the national win and a friendly Senate.

So that's me, that's where my head is at tonight.

Tomorrow morning, I vote.

Tomorrow, many of us vote.

Vote well. Vote wisely.


Here's hoping the panic ends Tuesday night.

Update Wednesday morning: ...


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