So there I was after the last GOP debate session engaging in a Twitter battle - yeah, I've been told not to, but dammit there's a war on! - with a pro-Rubio backer trying to patronize me. Emphasis on trying, because he was really bad at it ("New at this"? Muthafu--- I've been living this sh-t since I was ten...)
So I dig out the track history of how polls tend to match up to actual results, focusing on the most recent example of 2012. I pulled up Real Clear Politics' polling info and looked at the early primaries, specifically New Hampshire (Iowa is more an aberration to final results because of its wonky caucusing methods). If you follow that link and look at the numbers, the candidates that were First (Romney) and Second (Ron Paul) place stayed that way. Third place (Huntsman) wobbled a bit but garnered Third with the voters. Fourth (Newt) and Fifth (Santorum) also bounced between each other in the polls but the end results were statistically in line with how they finished.
Look to 2016's polling for the same state. There's chaos here with the also-rans while Trump claims a solid lead well into December, and Rubio currently holds the Second spot, but for October Rubio was barely holding Third, and right now he's got Cruz AND Christie rising up to challenge for Second. By the time of the actual primary, Rubio may well be back at Third, maybe even Fourth.
Nationally, Rubio's sitting at Third behind Trump (polling for him is more than double what Rubio has) with no sign of even challenging for Second (which is now Cruz, which is another level of OH GOD NO). Some of this deserves further attention in another blog entry, just to note...
So yeah, I stand by what I said about Rubio. I even went back into my CorelDraw editor and came up with a brand new bumper sticker to say it:
Not just a taunt at that pro-Rubio tweeter, but to the entire media elite that KEEPS backing Rubio despite the obvious lack of actual voter support.
Man, it's been awhile since I've made these bumper stickers. What the hell, America, it's Christmas Eve and I got time to make them. Hold on.
IO SATURNALIA, Americanum!
(that translates to "Party hard, my peeps!")