Saturday, November 24, 2018

Things That Need to Happen In Florida Before 2020

With the recounting all finished and the sad reality of Republicans winning the Governor and Senate races - DAMMIT FLORIDA RICK SCOTT IS A MEDICARE FRAUD DID YOU EVER UNDERSTAND THE SEVERITY OF THAT - the first thing to do is wipe away the tears and the second thing to do is get prepared for the chaos that will be 2020.

It is going to be a nasty election cycle, a Presidential one where the choices are going to be a handful of Democrats primarying in the spring and the Republicans amped up to defend a goddamned con artist in trump.

But a lot of other things can be on the ballot as well, above all reform amendments that can curtail a lot of the criminal misdeeds of a Florida legislature / Governor's office.

The voters just approved the amendment that would re-enfranchise ex-felons, allowing a million or more non-violent parolees to regain their rights as citizens to vote. That's a positive boon to turnout.

More needs to be done though.

Actual turnout is depressingly low. Population is 20 million, with around 16 million eligible to vote. Yet we currently have 13.3 million registered... and it's looking like barely over 8 million actually cared to vote. How much of that poor turnout is due to voter suppression, how much due to voter indifference?

There's solid evidence that the aggressive gerrymandering that affected this state the last twenty years or more discourages turnout. While anti-gerrymander amendments have passed this decade, the GOP-controlled Legislature and Governor's office have kept figuring out loopholes and means to ignore court orders, crafting districts that still favor their party in partisan ways. With another map redraw coming up for 2020 (the Census is coming), and the likelihood Florida may see another Congressional seat added, the shifting of the map is unavoidable.

If the Democratic party has any concern about breaking the decades-long grip the GOP has had on this state - a grip that has hurt our schools, poisoned our waters, and dismisses our rights - they need to approach this next election cycle in two ways.

One: push for amendment referenda that will crimp gerrymandering (such as an independent map-making committee, and stricter definitions to ensure non-partisan intent), that will improve voter turnout (by opening Early Voting more broadly and by forcing the counties to improve polling access with better voting equipment and more paid personnel), and that will ensure voter turnout (by creating universal voter registration, free IDs, same-day registration, and/or other reforms).

Two: by campaigning and challenging every available state and federal office with reliable local candidates, whether they be progressive or centrist. Florida Democrats still have problems recruiting and promoting for local elections (partly because the party leadership is wary of getting out-there Progressives that would alienate voters the way certain wingnut Far Right candidates would be for Republicans) to where local voters have few reasons to show up to vote. To hell with that. Get the best possible people to run for the State Lege. Get the local teachers (look at Wisconsin they elected a teacher to Governor) angry about low wages, get the local fishermen watching their businesses waste away in toxic algae, get the college-age Millennial railing against the gun violence that devastated her schools. Every seat needs to be challenged. Every voter needs to hear a Democratic voice arguing FOR better pay, cleaner water, safer lives.

2020 is gonna be a zoo: the train wreck that is trump makes that obvious. But Florida needs to tune that noise out and focus on what matters. Saving our state from Far Right misrule.

Get working. Two years goes by faster than you realize.

List of groups to seek out:

Indivisible

Common Cause Florida

League of Women Voters Florida

Lemme know who else to add that will be running amendment petitions for 2020!


1 comment:

dinthebeast said...

I believe our independent commission that draws our districts made the Democratic sweep of Orange County possible, so there's that.

I had really hoped Gillum would win so we could have a non-Republican Florida governor for the 2020 election, but you guys tried your best against their suppression tactics and outright cheating, so thank you for that.

Also, it was close, so perhaps those newly re-enfranchised voters will make the difference next time.

And then there's this, from Nate Silver a few days ago:

“This year’s results do serve as a warning to Trump in one important sense, however: His base alone will not be enough to win a second term. Throughout the stretch run of the 2018 midterm campaign, Trump and Republicans highlighted highly charged partisan issues, from the Central American migrant caravan to Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court. And Republican voters did indeed turn out in very high numbers: GOP candidates for the House received more than 50 million votes, more than the roughly 45 million they got in 2010.”

“But it wasn’t enough, or even close to enough. Problem No. 1 is that Republicans lost among swing voters: Independent voters went for Democrats by a 12-point margin, and voters who voted for a third-party candidate in 2016 went to Democrats by 13 points.”

“Trump and Republicans also have Problem No. 2, however: Their base is smaller than the Democratic one.”


Cold comfort I admit, but I'll take good news when I can get it.

-Doug in Oakland