Flipping DUVAAAALLLL!

First off, a few facts about Jacksonville, Florida.

One of the earliest cities formed in the state of Florida in 1832, named for Andrew Jackson - first Territorial Governor whose military campaigns made life a living hell for the native tribes and Spanish settlers - and set in the one part of the state that wasn't all swampland. A major sea port - the St. Johns River flows into the Atlantic - made it a key metropolis throughout much of Florida's history until the 20th Century when improvements in air conditioning, the spread of railroads and air travel connecting the rest of the US to more exotic southern locales like Miami, and massive population shifts to central and southeast Florida in the 1980s reduced its importance.

In the late 1960s, Jacksonville and its county Duval agreed to a merger where the city took on most of the county's functions, essentially turning the county into the city (smaller cities on the outskirts of Duval retained some independence). As a result, Jacksonville can lay claim to being the "most populous" city in Florida, but when you factor in countywide metros for Miami (Dade), Ft. Lauderdale (Broward), West Palm Beach (Palm Beach), Tampa (Hillsborough, and Orlando (Orange), Jacksonville slides down to sixth in-state.

It's still a major metro, with its own regional flavor (basically, everything that makes up Southern Rock (SKYNYRD 4EVER)) and importance to the state: Naval seaport, interstate trade, higher education - with Gainesville UF an hour's drive away (don't drive through Waldo!!!) - with SEC Football a big effing deal (UF-UGA every year unless the stadium's getting renovated), as well as respectable beach tourism with nearby St. Augustine a historic landmark. It has one pro sports team - the Jaguars (BORTLES!) - so arguably doesn't match up with South Florida or Tampa Bay in that regard. Anyway I digress (CHAMPA BAY! ahem).

Thing is, Jacksonville is one of the few large-population areas in Florida that regularly votes Republican across the ballot. Every other Florida metro - even the heavily conservative Hispanic populations in Miami Dade - tends to vote Democratic for their local elections. In regards to the state and federal elections, I would argue that extreme gerrymandering skews the results far too heavily to Republican, but again I digress (mutter grumble gerrymandering is evil grumble grumble).

While 2023 is somewhat off-cycle for the elections, a number of cities and districts have their local elections this year, and Jacksonville was holding one for Mayor that had statewide implications. Li Zhou at Vox has the details:

This week, Democrats got a rare bit of good news in Florida: For the first time in years, they flipped the mayoral seat in Jacksonville, the most populous Republican-led city in the country. The win, driven by former news anchor Donna Deegan, was widely seen as a major upset for the GOP, which increased its dominance in the state during the 2022 midterm elections...

Deegan was also uniquely bolstered by the strength of her candidacy and an inclusive message about change that brought in Democrats, independents, and a decent number of crossover Republicans. A nightly regional news anchor for 25 years who went on to have a public fight with breast cancer, Deegan had deep ties to the Jacksonville area and strong voter recognition. She was also able to capitalize on a voter base disappointed with current Republican leadership as crime in the city has stayed high, and as a recent bid to privatize Jacksonville’s public utility has been mired in scandal...

Perhaps the biggest takeaway for Democrats hoping to make gains in Florida in 2024 is the importance of running a candidate with strong connections to the community...

The name recognition meant Deegan didn’t have to spend time or money introducing herself to voters. Deegan didn’t just rely on that, however, University of Northern Florida political scientist Georgette Dumont told Vox. Deegan expanded on existing awareness by mounting a strong ground game, with a robust door-knocking campaign and town halls, and she participated in a public debate, which Davis opted to skip...

Voters who are upset about the conservative agenda that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has pushed through the state legislature also saw Deegan as an opposition candidate. DeSantis endorsed Davis, though he did not invest significant energy boosting his campaign.

Deegan also focused her messaging on inclusive leadership that disregarded partisanship, emphasizing her willingness to boost a city government that takes in voices of all parties. She pledged to include more diversity on important boards to better reflect Jacksonville’s demographics. According to the US Census Bureau, the city is roughly 55 percent white, 31 percent Black, 11 percent Latino, and 5 percent Asian American. That type of framing ultimately could prove appealing to voters in similarly swingy areas who may be more open to less partisan rhetoric.

“This is a heavily Republican district that’s turning more blue over the years as people move in,” said Dumont. Jacksonville has become increasingly diverse, younger, and more metropolitan in recent years, added Schale. He also noted that the Obama campaign, which he worked on, invested heavily in turning out more Black voters in the region, an effort candidates can continue to build on...

Deegan's efforts were also seen as part of the overall refit of the state Democratic organization, which had been struggling since the Obama era with both messaging and finding candidates that could draw the voters to them. Nikki Fried - who had won state office (Agricultural Commissioner) in a Republican-dominated executive branch back in 2018, and who proved she could rally the state Dems and general voters to her - challenged for the Dem centrist leadership and was using this off-cycle election to test her fundraising and GOTV efforts. Unlike earlier Dem efforts to recruit 'centrist' figures who weren't local or didn't appeal to regional Dem voters, Fried seemed to focus more on progressive yet populist locals who had built-in audiences. It worked: The mayoral win is turning into a huge blow against DeSantis and giving Fried ways to punch back (via Zac Anderson at Florida Today/Sarasota Herald-Tribune):

DeSantis endorsed candidates for governor in Kentucky and mayor in Jacksonville; both lost, puncturing DeSantis' winning aura and, with the Jacksonville election, helping to revive a Florida Democratic Party that the governor had pronounced dead and buried after his dominating 2022 re-election win...

Getting behind two losing candidates could hurt DeSantis' ability to argue that he's the cure for the GOP's losing ways. The loss in Jacksonville, a region DeSantis represented in Congress, is particularly notable, although DeSantis didn't campaign in person in the mayor's race or do much beyond endorsing.

Democrats also are touting the victory in Jacksonville as a revival for the party, which was at a low point after being swept in statewide races last year and losing to DeSantis by 19 percentage points. DeSantis called Florida Democrats a "dead carcass on the side of the road."

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried responded Wednesday on Twitter by declaring: "The only 'dead carcass on the side of the road' that I see is your presidential race..."

This election result can also be an early sign of voters rejecting DeSantis' Culture War agenda he's been dumping on the state over the last two years. Trying desperately to win over Far Right voters on anti-trans/anti-gay, anti-CRT, anti-abortion, anti-Woke agenda, DeSantis and his Republican allies didn't offer much in things that actually mattered on day-to-day issues like crime reduction, affordable housing, and infrastructure (AKA the Pothole problems). This electoral loss can be evidence the state GOP are alienating the moderate/independent voters that are commonly located in the suburban edges of metros like Jacksonville.

All hope is tempered, of course, by the reality that political fortunes shift from week to week and election to election. The Democrats have to build on this as much as Republicans getting foolish enough to double-down on a Culture War nobody else likes.

But if all DeSantis can offer to voters is "Anti-Woke" bullshit, he's not going to win over the 2024 voters. It's going to be yet another rehash of the faux Outrage platform that trump ran on in both 2016 and 2020. And trump's already proved he can run roughshod over DeSantis in the primaries on that Outrage, with no guarantee for either trump or DeSantis they can win over general election voters well enough to skew the Electoral College to their favor.

Keep getting the vote out, Florida Democrats.

And for the LOVE OF GOD everyone, stop voting Republican.

Oh, and speaking of Florida cities, there's a wonderful little town in Polk County called Bartow. On a personal note, I will appear at the Bartow Writers Block and Street Fair as a local author this Saturday May 20th from 10AM to 6PM. It's a fund-raising effort for the local church charities, and it'll be  pet-friendly event with a ton of activities. I do hope to see some people there, and buy my books!