Blood and Ash the Price We Will All Pay For This

Again, I woke up to war this year. This started around 2:14 AM EST (via Amir-Hussein Radjy at AP News):

Two residents reported hearing the sounds of strikes echoing across the capital. A resident in the area of Mehrabad airport reported the sounds of “two heavy explosions” shaking windows just over half an hour ago. In central Tehran near Vanak, another resident reported the sounds of “blasts and war” coming at almost the same moment.

The more comprehensive AP report by Brian Melley:

The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday in a massive operation that President Donald Trump said killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei while targeting military capabilities and aiming to eliminate the threat of Tehran creating a nuclear weapon.

There was no comment on Khamenei by Tehran, while Trump urged Iranians to seize the moment and “take over.”

In counterattacks, Iran fired drones and missiles at Israel and aimed strikes at U.S. military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Exchanges of fire continued into the night. Iranian state media, citing the Red Crescent, on Saturday evening said at least 201 people had been killed and more than 700 injured.

Iran has also been attacking civilian targets in Dubai and other parts of the Arabian Middle East. Iran is threatening to blockade the Strait of Hormuz if they haven't started already, something that can easily cut off a massive amount of oil needed for global energy needs, spiking gas prices here in the U.S. as well as other nations.

At the moment, it doesn't look like trump and his gung-ho war buddies are going to commit any troops to a ground invasion, contenting themselves with a massive bombing campaign alongside Israel to perform "decapitation strikes" to destabilize the regime. Essentially the same thing trump ordered when using the military to capture Venezuela's president a month ago.

Thing is, any serious attempt at regime change is going to NEED boots on the ground and an occupying force to rebuild things. trump may have captured Maduro but all that did was promote Venezuela's Vice President to the top job. If the US bombing did succeed in killing Khamenei - who was 86 and dying anyway - all we've done right now is promote another cleric to the Ayatollah job and that person is hiding in the deepest basement he can find.

And even then, our nation's track record at nation-building after war and occupation hasn't been all that great post World War II. We tried in Afghanistan and failed (trump made sure of that). We tried in Iraq and failed (lying us into war over fake WMDs made sure of that). The biggest - the most horrifying - argument in the halls of power in DC over trump's campaign against Iran is how there's no real plan involved. Tom Nichols at the Atlantic spells out the hazards:

To think about the possible courses of this war, we should start by clearly understanding three realities: First, Iran is a terrible regime that deserves to fall. The regime recently murdered thousands of its own citizens who were seeking freedom from their oppressive rule, and no one should be shedding tears for the mullahs hiding in their bunkers.

Second, “success” is not impossible—if by “success” we mean the fall of the ayatollahs and the rise of a better, more humane, pro-Western government that does not seek to destabilize the Middle East; dominate Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen; and eradicate Israel. But the path to that success is exceedingly narrow and mined with significant hazards. Destroying the regime’s capabilities is relatively easy, but nothing permanent—as Americans learned in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan—is achieved by bouncing rubble and piling up bodies. Destroying the regime itself is a far trickier business; dictatorships have a high pain tolerance, especially when the hapless citizens, not the leaders, bear the brunt of that pain.

Third, the president has not offered a strategy, or identified any conditions that would signal that U.S. goals have been achieved. Yes, he has vowed to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons, but beyond that, he seems to be arguing for just inflicting military damage on the regime, on the assumption that enough ordnance on enough targets will weaken the grip of the ayatollahs. Once the theocrats are on the ropes, the thinking seems to go, the people of Iran will finish the job of regime change for us...

America twice had its hands full in Iraq, a nation of 37 million, even with the assistance of several countries. The U.S., France, and Britain managed to subdue tiny Libya, a nation of 7.5 million, and left its dictator to be raped and beaten in the streets. This time, conditions are different and more challenging: The target is two and a half times the size of Iraq, America has exactly one openly declared ally in this enterprise, no serious armed rebel force exists in Iran, and no coalition of nations is assembling to march into Tehran...

In short, the United States and Israel - both driven by neocon fantasies of purging the Middle East in blood and fire - are doubling down on the chaos thinking a shinier better world will emerge. That we will be - yet again - "greeted as liberators" even though we're destroying the village nation in order to save it us. This is in spite of the evidence that we're going in mostly alone, going into a territory and terrain far harsher than we've dealt with before, and with no real clue where the exit doors are when it's time to flee for our lives.

All of these problems were ones I'd pointed out back in 2019, during trump's first reign of error, when it was clear even then that going to war in Iran one way or another was a bad idea. Nothing had changed since then, except for trump's growing dementia, arrogance, and desperation to *win* at something to confirm his own self-worth at everyone else's expense.

Topping all of this is the fact trump's actions are illegal - he does not have authorization from Congress for this - and that we're already getting reports from Iran of high civilian casualties (aka war crimes). There is no other way to say this, America: WE are the bad guys here.

And GODDAMN every media pundit who proclaimed trump 'a dove' while defaming Hillary and Kamala as warmongers. You lied to yourselves as well as to the nation about who the real warmonger has been - and which party (hint, not the Democrats) has profited from these wars ever since 2001.

Without a clear agenda, without true and honest goals, without a sincere desire to do what is right for the poor suffering citizens of Iran - and the other lands that trump and his thugs would desecrate for their own greed and lust - this war that has begun poorly will end much worse, with more suffering and dismay than our own nation will be willing to bear.

Goddamn every one of you bastards who supported trump the last ten years, because the next ten years of blood and ash are the price we're all paying for your fear and rage. 

I Love You More Than Hate Loves War

Last month, Bruce Springsteen released a protest song railing against the violence of trump's thugs towards immigrants and protestors, and it came as part of an early wave of protest songs spreading across the American airwaves as other artists chimed in.

Last week, one of the other bands I follow - U2 - released their own song about the violence in Minneapolis, on an EP (sort of a mini-album) alongside other songs protesting the state of things across the world from Ukraine to Sudan to Iran to Gaza. 

trump and his ilk have operated for years on the belief that their world-view - of greed, of fear, of hating others they can't understand or accept - is the only view that matters, and waged - still waging - a culture war to establish their hate over all of us.

Yet now our American culture - driven by music, by entertainment, by passion and heart and hope - is fighting back, delving into the long-standing traditions of protest songs to spell out where the haters are wrong, and how they're going to lose.

Keep fighting. Keep singing.

We - the communities, the families, the real Americans - shall overcome.

The True State of the Union This 2026

trump is going to lie his ass off at tonight's State of the Union address, so here are the facts as you need to know them.

The state of the Union is strong divided. The polling by most Americans show a lot of us are miserable at the direction our nation is turning. And the disapproval is far higher than it was in trump's first run at misrule:

from the NPR report on trump's bad standing before this SOTU.

The division in the country is due to trump's heavy-handed immigration policy, as his ICE and Border Patrol thugs are smashing and shooting their way through too many of our cities and states grabbing families and children. The current regime is at open war with our own communities, dragging us into culture war racism and misogyny that tore the United States apart the last time we went down this path.

The division in the country is due to trump's arrogant and violent handling of foreign policy, threatening unwanted wars against allies and enemies alike while committing war crimes that a majority of Americans can't abide. trump's open calls about attacking Iran over the past month - and growing louder by the day - have little support within his own nation even as most of us are mortified we have nobody - cough GOP Congress cough - in a position to stop it.

The division in the country is due to trump's unstoppable obsession with using tariffs and his overall mishandling of our economy. Inflation is still a problem, the job market is unsteady, and far too many of us are struggling with housing, debt, and other costs. The only economic sector that's chugging along are the stock markets, and even they are one bubble burst away from a meltdown that would make the Great Recession look like a hiccup.

If there's any issue a majority of Americans are united, it's that we need to see more of the Epstein Files documents and more accountability of the elites who engaged (and profited from) in sex trafficking of teens. And on that, trump and his lackeys are clearly ignoring the people's demands - openly committing obstruction by hiding (or worse destroying) documents showing trump's culpability - to the detriment of our country.

So that's where we stand, America, on this eve of trump's lie-fest to the Union.

Gods help us.

In trumpworld, the Tariffs Will Increase Until Morale Improves

Update: thanks again to Steve in Manhattan for sharing this article at Crooks & Liars' Mike's Blog Round-Up. Just a reminder, save your sanity by avoiding tonight's SOTU and rely on the poor souls who will annotate it on Bluesky for us.

For all the storm and fury over donald trump's obsession for raising tariffs, there was eventually a reckoning this week when the Supreme Court finally realized they needed to tell trump "No, you CAN'T raise tariffs without congressional approval." (via Scott Horsley at NPR):

The Supreme Court ruled Friday that President Trump overstepped his authority when he ordered tariffs on imports from nearly every country in the world, using a 1970s emergency statute...

The federal government has been collecting about $30 billion in tariffs every month — or about four times as much as it took in before Trump returned to the White House.

Trump has raised tariff rates to their highest level in nearly a century, but import taxes are still a small share of overall government revenue — just over 5% in January...

A working paper from Harvard University professor and former International Monetary Fund economist Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman of the University of Chicago estimates that nearly all the cost of Trump's tariffs are being paid by U.S. importers, not foreign suppliers as Trump has claimed.

In some cases, importers have absorbed that cost, settling for lower profits. In others, they've passed the additional cost on to customers in the form of higher prices...

Trump promised that imposing the highest tariffs since the Great Depression would spark a renaissance in U.S. manufacturing. But factories have been in a slump for most of the last year, shedding 108,000 jobs in 2025.

No doubt Trump's taxes on foreign imports have allowed some U.S. factories to raise their prices. But the vast majority of factory managers, many of whom rely on foreign components, say tariffs have been a drag on their business.

"Morale is very low across manufacturing in general," one unnamed factory manager told the Institute for Supply Management in December...

So of course, trump being trump he decided to double down on his tariffs obsession (via Kristen Wright, also NPR): 

President Trump on Saturday said he plans to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15%.

"...I, as President of the United States of America, will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% Worldwide Tariff on Countries, many of which have been "ripping" the U.S. off for decades, without retribution (until I came along!), to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level," the president posted on Truth Social.

The announcement was made a day after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the president's sweeping use of emergency powers to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The 6-3 ruling is a major blow to Trump's economic policy agenda.

Trump said his decision to raise taxes on imports to 15% is based on "a thorough, detailed, and complete review of the ridiculous, poorly written, and extraordinarily anti-American decision on Tariffs issued yesterday."

trump is, of course, lying out of his ass about "thorough, detailed, and complete review" of a ruling within 24 hours of getting it dumped on his head. Given the ineptitude of trump's entire administration, there's rarely been ANYthing other than messy, disorganized, poorly reasoned responses.

trump is pushing ahead on his tariffs for - again - various reasons, mostly tied to his raging narcissism. Above all is how trump can never admit he is wrong, or losing in any way. he will double down on his mistakes and his flawed logic whenever possible, and blame the people who stopped him for being "crooked" or wrong (when they're not).

he's still convinced - and not through egotistical stubbornness, but genuine belief - that trade wars work, that tariffs are effective sources of revenue (when it's only five percent of total revenue, that can't be anywhere near correct), and that tariffs give him more control over everyone else. trump wants the power to wield tariffs and the threat of such over foreign nations and local businesses alike, as extortions and shakedowns. 

trump believes he doesn't need to work with Congress in any way - look at how he refused to coordinate with even his fellow Republicans during the first time - and his abuse of the laws regarding trade and tariffs is a big sign of that disregard.

The tariff trump is looking to impose now can well face more legal actions from businesses and groups threatened by how rash and destructive these decisions are. But that more dragging out in courts, meaning the costs of trump's tariffs are going to prolong the economic malaise building under his misrule.

trump doesn't care. he's going to keep lying and keep bullying about how great everything is, until he's convinced we adore him the way he wants.

Which is never going to happen. So the beatings tariffs will continue on...

Punch What Is On the Menu

Violence is not in good taste, but sometimes punch is what's on the menu.
-- Alyssa Cole

Most of today was news about the British government moving forward in their criminal investigations into Jeffrey Epstein's abuse and trafficking of underage girls at a global level... by arresting someone who was at the top of the British government (via Lucy Campbell, Nadeem Badshah, Tom Ambrose, and Taz Ali at The Guardian):

Here’s a brief recap of a shocking and dramatic day that could have profound ramifications for the royal family.

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested on Thursday morning on suspicion of misconduct in public office by police investigating the former prince’s dealings with the convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Photographs showed unmarked police cars and plainclothes officers at Wood Farm on the Sandringham estate at about 8am (GMT). They searched the Norfolk property as well as his former home in the Royal Lodge in Great Windsor Park.

Police had been assessing allegations that Mountbatten-Windsor shared sensitive information with Epstein when he was a UK trade envoy. The allegations stem from documents released by the US justice department relating to Epstein and his links to the rich and powerful. Emails released appeared to show Mountbatten-Windsor sharing reports of official visits to Hong Kong, Vietnam and Singapore. Another email appeared to send Epstein a confidential brief on investment opportunities in the reconstruction of Helmand Province, Afghanistan. Mountbatten-Windsor has always denied any wrongdoing or accusations against him, but has not directly responded to these latest allegations...

There is a painful irony in that Andrew - no longer a prince in the royal family - is facing criminal charges for the financial shenanigans that Epstein and that circle of elites committed over the decades, instead of the sexual abuse charges that deserve greater focus (and hopefully punishment).

But these charges against ex-Prince Randy Andy (yes, that was his nickname) highlight one of the dirty truths regarding everything crooked in Jeffrey Epstein's world. There is a terrifying connection between the powerful elites - those with wealth, those with political office, those with social connections, those with the authority to hide the crimes of others - when it comes to abusing their elite status towards everyone else... especially young women without any power or protection of their own.

Each release of Epstein files - recently the thousands of emails detailing Epstein's connections to other men who shared the same misogyny and racism - exposes how everything wrong with our society and culture tie into each other. The greed driving our economic inequality, the fear driving the hatred towards immigrants and "the Other", the rage driving the attacks both physical and emotional towards women: All of it tied into this twisted patriarchal sociopathy that demands obedience to whichever wannabe Alpha Male flexes his ego the most.

We need a full release of the Epstein Files: not the names of the victims but the names of the perpetrators, so that we can drive those sons of bitches out of power before they cause more harm (because they are).

The Epstein Elites Kan't Speel

I apologize for not blogging that often this month, I will attempt to get back up to speed, but in the meantime this kid (oh GOD I'm old) Josh Johnson is blowing up YouTube with clips of his stand-up routines skewering the billionaire techbro bastards currently tearing down every aspect of human civilization.

And these illiterate elites are trying to shove their artificial intelligence as though that fakery can compensate for their stupidity. Argh.

I'll check back in soon.

One Bit of Good News (Which Highlights All The Other Bad News)

With the furor over ICE basically kidnapping a 5-year-old from the streets of Minneapolis, the courts thankfully stepped in and said "HELL NO, Send Liam And His Dad Home" (via Sofia Barnett at the Minnesota Star Tribune): 

Five-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos returned home to Minnesota on Sunday, Feb. 1, with his father, ending a detention that carried the Columbia Heights preschooler hundreds of miles from his school and family and turned him into a national symbol of the human toll of immigration enforcement.

Liam and his father, Adrian Conejo Arias, boarded a commercial flight from San Antonio to Minneapolis after spending more than a week in federal custody at a Texas immigration detention center. They were detained Jan. 20 outside their home in Columbia Heights shortly after Liam returned from preschool, according to school officials and witnesses.

Their detention drew national attention after photos circulated of Liam being taken into custody in his driveway, wearing a blue hat with bunny ears and a Spider-Man backpack. In one photo, his face is twisted into a frown as agents lead him toward a vehicle, his small frame swallowed by a bulky flannel, his hands held together in front of him...

Liam’s release followed an emergency order from U.S. District Judge Fred Biery, who directed the government to immediately free the father and son from the South Texas Family Residential Center in Dilley. The ruling capped days of mounting pressure from lawmakers, school leaders and advocates who warned the detention of the young child had crossed a line.

The good news is that Liam is home, he's in a safe place and he has a chance to recover from the trauma ICE, Stephen Miller, and trump dumped on him.

The bad news? There's still thousands of innocent children being held in cages by trump's thugs (via Holly Yan and Priscilla Alvarez at CNN):.

But the boy’s plight – and his now uncertain future – sparked renewed outrage over the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement crackdown, which has also ensnared children.

Liam is now the fourth child from his school district to be taken away by ICE in just the past two weeks, Columbia Heights Public Schools said...

Liam, a student in the “PreK 4” program at Valley View Elementary, isn’t the only child from his school district who has been taken away by federal agents. Three other students have also been taken by ICE, school officials said.

Also on Tuesday, a 17-year-old Columbia Heights High School student on the way to school was taken by armed, masked agents, Columbia Heights Public Schools said.

“No parents were present,” the school district said. “The student was removed from their car and taken away.”

Last week, ICE agents entered the apartment of another 17-year-old high school student and her mother. Both were detained, the district said.

And a fourth grader was taken by ICE agents on her way to school with her mother two weeks ago. The 10-year-old is still in a Texas detention center, the school district said on Wednesday...

The current (as of December 2025) estimate on the number of children Homeland Security/ICE are detaining is around 3,800. This could be ranging from newborns to high school teens.

And we're talking CHILDREN here. Not gang-bangers. Not criminals. Children going to school, children trying to learn, trying to grow up in a nation that's supposed to be better than this.

And yet trump and Miller and Koem and nearly every Republican talking head out there are still trying to shill the Narrative that all these brown dark-skinned kids are the bad guys.

THEY'RE CHILDREN.

NONE OF THEM SHOULD BE IN CAGES, YOU MONSTERS.

Send every child back home, goddammit.