Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Just Remember Kids, Emperor Norton Was Kinda Sane

Damn, kick me for the fool that I am, I let this date slide.

August 12, 1869:

Norton I., Dea Gratia, Emperor of the United States and Protector of Mexico, Being desirous of allaying the dissensions of party strife now existing within our realm, I do hereby dissolve and abolish the Democratic and Republican parties, and also do hereby decree the disfranchisement and imprisonment, for not more than ten nor less than five years, to all persons leading to any violation of this our imperial decree. - San Francisco Herald

Joshua Abraham Norton, once a proud businessman immigrant who came to these shores in the 1850s, property owner and trader who made a foolish attempt to corner the rice market and failed. By 1860, with all the dissension with the upcoming Civil War, Norton decided to take it upon himself to make himself an Emperor of the United States and calm the situation.

Didn't exactly take.

But he kept at being Emperor living on a bare income of "taxing" the local citizenry at 50 cents (and it wasn't annoyingly persistent, he kept a rigorous schedule and issued receipts by all accounts), despite how delusional it made him seem to others. As the years passed, people realized at first he was pretty much harmless about it, and on many topics could be erudite and well-spoken.

What he did noteworthy was issue decrees, proclamations like the one above that the local newspapers - hungry for anything to fill the page - would print. They noticed that readership picked up if a decree was on the front page, so the competing papers of San Francisco would curry favor for official ones from Norton or otherwise fake their own.

Historians can recognize the fakes because the newspapermen were lousy at spelling and grammar (one editor was obsessed with the recent Alice in Wonderland stories and used "off with his head" waaaaaay too much), and Norton had a proper education thank you. His decrees were also practical and focused on such things as public works: he would include from time to time reminders that the government needed to respect his authority, but he never pushed further than issuing more decrees.

Thing was, the decrees spread to other papers to where Norton became a public figure coast to coast. When train travel proved affordable, Americans traveled West and one of the things they did was seek out the Emperor for one of his fake scrips (self-printed money that the local stores exchanged as normal currency). He was, in some ways, the first celebrity tourist attraction.

As Emperor, he wrote letters to politicians and European royalty about matters of the day. Abraham Lincoln reportedly wrote back. When foreign dignitaries visited San Francisco (as a major Pacific port of the 19th century), stories abounded about how they would actually meet Norton I as though he were a peer.

Norton kept an ear open on local affairs. His proclamations would include encouragements to invest in local inventions that had merit, or promote a service to the citizenry. He decreed often that a bridge - suspension or fixed - be built between San Francisco and rival city Oakland to improve transportation, local trade, and community harmony.

San Francisco, being on the Pacific, was the entry point for the massive wave of Chinese immigration of the 19th Century. As such, there was a lot of violent anti-immigrant riots that decimated the local Chinatown. When a mob charged towards that part of town one night, Norton stood in their path and merely recited the Lord's Prayer until the mob turned away in shame.

Legend has it the California State Assembly allowed him to sit at various sessions. He rarely spoke, but reportedly during a harsh argument over which of two men would get a key appointment he did speak up for the one man he could vouch for personally, who ended up getting the job.

A local patrolman working for a hotel - not an actual policeman, in San Francisco private businesses can hire their own police - in 1867 arrested Norton for vagrancy, not knowing who he was. When Norton could demonstrate to the real law enforcement that he had 1) a residence and 2) money in his pocket to afford a reasonable one-night stay at that hotel, the patrolman decided to change the charge to Norton having a mental disorder. The public outrage was swift, and the patrolman dropped the charge. The chief of police let Norton go with an apology and said "Mister Norton had shed no blood, robbed no one, and despoiled no country; which is more than can be said of his fellows in the king line."

Norton I, Emperor of the United States, died in the streets of San Francisco during a storm on January 8th, 1880. It made national news the next day. Mark Twain - who knew Norton back in the early days - admitted his regret never getting a chance to write the man's biography. His funeral train was reportedly 20,000 people and stretched two miles. It took place during a solar eclipse.

Compared to Donald Trump, Joshua Abraham Norton was sane, and desirous for what was best for the citizens of San Francisco and the United States. He may have been playing a con perhaps, pretending to be mad to gain sympathy from his neighbors and later on an entire city and state. But he never ripped anyone off, never went out of his way to cause real damage, never called on violence - his real decrees called for arrests, not executions - and never put himself on a golden throne - a comfortable chair at best - at the expense of others. At worst, he'd tax you 50 cents and give you a receipt for it.

And he seemed to believe. The whole time from his first decree onward, everyone who saw and commented on him noted he really did believe he was Emperor of the United States. And behaved accordingly to his role.
His madness kept him sane - Neil Gaiman, speaking on behalf of Delirium

Some Trumps Just Want to Watch the Party Burn

So I go to sleep to Trump giving a really bad speech in Milwaukee and wake up to Trump's campaign in full meltdown mode.


Trump shuffled his campaign office - AGAIN - this time demoting the likes of Manafort - whose growing scandalous ties to corrupt Ukrainians was proving to be a legitimate foreign policy/national security matter - and bringing in this Steve Bannon to take charge. Via the Atlantic:

Donald Trump has hired a senior executive from Breitbart News and promoted a campaign adviser to a top position in an effort to jump-start his presidential campaign, which has been foundering in recent days.
Under the changes announced Wednesday, Stephen Bannon, Breitbart’s executive chairman, will become chief executive of the GOP presidential nominee’s campaign, and Kellyanne Conway, the Republican strategist and pollster, who currently is a senior adviser on the campaign, will become the campaign manager. Paul Manafort, who has come under scrutiny for his reported ties to Ukraine’s former Moscow-backed leader, will retain his title as campaign chairman, though it’s unclear whether he will continue to wield the same kind of influence in the new regime.

I actually wasn't aware of who Bannon was... but then the Internet - like the Atlantic article above - kindly let me know that he's essentially the guy who took over Breitbart's slime machine and kept it going as a conspiracy-hawking, librul-bashing, RINO-hunting monstrosity.

Bloomberg had this back in 2015 (article by Joshua Green):

As befits someone with his peripatetic background, Bannon is a kind of Jekyll-and-Hyde figure in the complicated ecosystem of the right—he's two things at once. And he’s devised a method to influence politics that marries the old-style attack journalism of Breitbart.com, which helped drive out Boehner, with a more sophisticated approach, conducted through the nonprofit Government Accountability Institute, that builds rigorous, fact-based indictments against major politicians, then partners with mainstream media outlets conservatives typically despise to disseminate those findings to the broadest audience.

He's basically an attack dog for the Far Right: shredding political opponents without a care for consequences or facts (despite Green's claims, this is a guy in charge of one of the most fact-free media outlets out there), and pushing a purity purge among the Republican ranks to enforce message discipline.

Putting a guy like Bannon in charge of Trump's campaign is a clear signal that Trump wants to increase the attacks not only on Hillary and Democrats but also on fellow Republicans who are failing to support the Trump brand.

It's still a risky move on three points:


  • Bannon's never run a political campaign before, if I've read the articles about him right. Trump's campaign is still a disorganized mess that barely had no ground game and no ad spending (something that eagle-eyed observers are watching)
  • Going even more negative than the previous year, at this stage of the general election, can just as easily backfire on Trump. Being negative during the primaries work because that's what your voting base feeds off of. Being super-negative with the mudslinging during the general election will only depress voter turnout among the moderate/independent voters who hate that negativity... and Trump - whose own party support is the lowest any Republican candidate ever had - needs the moderate votes more than Hillary does.
  • It still doesn't resolve the internal scandals involving Manafort - whose still on the campaign - and other lackeys with serious (almost criminal) baggage.


This is less Schadenfreude than Oh Crap. Not that Bannon is suddenly going to turn Trump into a winning campaigner, but that Bannon is going to nuke everything from orbit... just to make sure the Narrative stays pure.

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

I Admit This Makes Me Feel Good. Still GET THE VOTE OUT FOR HILLARY, FLORIDA...

Actually I dunno if this counts as Schadenfreude, but I am laughing my ass off.

Among Sunshine State voters likely to participate in November’s presidential election, 48 percent currently support Clinton and 39 back Trump.  Another 6 percent intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1 percent support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with 5 percent who are undecided.
Among self-identified Democrats, 92 percent support Clinton while 4 choose Trump and just 3 back a third party candidate. Trump has less support among his own party base, with 79 percent of Republicans who back their nominee, compared to 12 who support Clinton and 5 who back another candidate.  Clinton leads Trump among independents by 47 percent to 30, with 11 supporting Johnson and 2 backing Stein.
Clinton has an overwhelming lead among Hispanic, black and Asian voters who make up about one-third of the electorate, garnering 69 percent of this group’s vote to 19 for Trump.  Trump leads among white voters by 51 percent to 37, but there is a significant gender split.  Among white men, Trump has a 64 percent to 24 advantage.  Among white women, Clinton leads by 49 percent to 39.  There is no difference by educational attainment, with Trump ahead among white voters without a college degree (51 to 39) as well as white college graduates (50 to 36).

BWHAHAHAHAHA

Of key interest: Hillary has near full support of her own party at 92 percent, while Trump only has 79 percent. By comparison, Romney got well over 90 percent of GOP support nationwide: where Florida can reflect most of the nation, Trump is struggling still to secure his own base.

And of course, the gender split between Whites is where the Women vote matters. Trump just cannot survive on White Men alone.

When more than one poll post-convention is showing that you're losing a state, you're losing that state. Granted, anything can happen around debate time, but if the polling remains this consistent, it's not going to flip on its own. And when the polling difference (9 percent) is greater than the Margin Of Error number (3 or 4 percent usually), you're losing.

Trump is losing Florida, and is doing so in a way that is making my Sunshine State a solid Blue. No more Toss-Up for us, folks. Let me just map this out for you.

California is our biggest Electoral state at 55 votes. Texas is next at 38. Then you get a two-way tie between New York and Florida at 29. And then you get to Illinois (needs fresher polling) and Pennsylvania at 20.

According to the average polling for each of the six biggest states, you get this map:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Out of the six biggest states, only ONE of them is reliably Republican anymore for Presidential races. And even Texas is closer than it looks as the demographics for Latino votes may yet flip that state (it all depends on turnout).

Hillary's got 153 EV wrapped up already while Trump only has 38. She's halfway to the 270 finish line. Throw in how Hillary is wrapping up Virginia and Colorado and New Jersey and Massachusetts and nearly every other big electoral state and you are looking at Democratic dominance for the White House not just for this election cycle but the three or four afterward (hello, 2028!). The next comfortable state for Trump is Tennessee at 11 EV, because Ohio and Michigan lean Blue and Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are Toss-Ups now.

What happened here is that the Republicans decided a long time ago to play their game by Geography and Demographics rather than offering leadership and solutions towards a broad set of national issues. They looked to lock up certain states and they looked to lock up White voters at the expense of the other ethnics (Blacks, Latinos, Asians). This worked when White voters would vote as a cohesive block (say, 1984): Today, they don't. White voters have fractured by gender (White Women are rejecting the GOP at an alarming rate), age (younger voters are rejecting the GOP), and education level (college-level Whites are keeping their distance).

That turns into a major drawback in the heavily-urban, heavily-populated, heavily-educated states. They've kept control over Texas over purely cultural / social conservative stances, but even that's starting to fail them.

And now here comes Trump, alienating nearly every voting bloc other than Low-Education White Males. That's not enough to win at the national level anymore. Maybe a few Senate elections, clearly the House elections where congressional districts favor gerrymandering out into the exurbs where most conservative Whites live. But the White House is going to be off-limits to the Far Right now and for the near future.

Just as long as the demographics that matter - Women, Blacks, Latinos, Asians, Young, and Educated Whites - turn up in droves at the ballot box this November.

GET THE DAMN VOTE OUT, PEOPLE.

Let's get it to where Hillary wins the Electoral College before the poll closings reach the Mississippi River.


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com


It's doable.

Monday, August 15, 2016

Florida Primary 2016 Suggestions

Shame on me, I ignored something about this year's Florida statewide primaries for this month that I need to address here.

That while there IS a state amendment to vote for - and I mean that in the positive sense, because it IS a pro-solar-power referendum - there's also key seats up for grabs.

Like, oh, the GODDAMN U.S. SENATE SEAT.

And this time, people have a reason to show up. Both major parties have candidates to choose: This isn't a rubber-stamp, here's-your-incumbent-choke-on-it situation. Republicans and Democrats gotta show up for this one. Even Libertarians have a choice.

So on the Republicans side, you get these candidates (I am defaulting to the Polk County ballot):

Marco Rubio - Incumbent
Ernie Rivera - Businessman
Carlos Beruff - Businessman
Dwight Mark Anthony Young - Sheriff's Deputy

Rubio put himself back on the ballot when it turned out he couldn't even beat Ben Carson in a fair fight for the White House. He originally had to drop because state law said he couldn't be on the same ballot for different seats. But he's back... and oh boy does he deserve to get kicked right back out again.

Granted, I'm not a huge fan of his to begin with. But let me make this one huge mark against Rubio: He has the worst attendance record of any sitting Senator we currently have. His failure to show up for votes is one of the many reasons he failed his Presidency bid. Voting him back into that Senate seat is essentially sending him back to a no-show job. He has not earned the right to keep that seat, period.

So that leaves Rivera, Beruff, and Young. If you were Republican, which of those three should you vote for?

Beruff has been an aggressive campaigner against Rubio, but he's got shady business practices as a land developer and a Trump-ish attitude about him. He's also getting hit with accusations he remained a Crist ally in 2010 when Crist and the party separated. Rivera, listed as a businessman and pastor, has been marketing his campaign but getting little actual press coverage. Young is a county sheriff's deputy, and there's almost nothing - except this - about him out there. Beruff's been making himself the big opponent against Rubio, so if you had to make a choice Florida Republicans I'd suggest him (with a head shake of serious doubt. Honestly, you've got bad choices this year, folks).

On the Democratic ticket, it's just as messy (link again to Polk County ballot):

Patrick Murphy - Congressman
Alan Grayson - Congressman
Pam Keith - Lawyer
Roque De La Fuente - Businessman
Reginald Luster - Lawyer

The race here has pretty much been Murphy vs. Grayson, both of them well-known and both of them carrying serious baggage. Grayson has been a loose cannon figure as a Congressman, grabbing the spotlight but also getting caught in a lot of unethical behavior. And he's coming off a nasty divorce with serious abuse allegations. Murphy has been the more consistent Democratic official but has troubling business ties, a spotty resume, and a problem of being more Center-Right than Center-Left.

Of the other candidates, Luster is an African-American South Florida lawyer, Keith is the sole female (as well as African-American) who's also a lawyer with a military background. De La Fuente is a businessman who put in for a Presidential run (didn't go very far), and he's the type of businessman who will not impress the Progressive base one whit (they barely tolerated Sink and Crist: De La Fuente will not get many votes).

If I were a registered Dem, I'd be leaning between either Keith or Murphy. Grayson is too much of a wild card, and there's a legitimate concern that he's going to get hit hard with ethics charges. Keith would stand out as a Woman and Black Senator from a southern state, but while I concur with some of her positions I've looked at her unemployment and income equality stances and I can't comprehend how she's backing privatizing unemployment training and pushing for more corporate tax cuts (trying to incentivize companies to share the wealth seems like more trickle-down trickery). This leaves Murphy, who does have experience and even as a moderate Democrat would be a vast improvement over No-Show Rubio. But I worry that Florida Democrats, notoriously finicky, won't show up for a candidate they perceive as a Blue Dog Dem even if he'll be liberal enough to defend their views.

And if you're Libertarian, you've got a choice for once, which is a state first: Paul Stanton or Augustus Sol Invictus. Invictus has the cool name but has a habit of drinking goat's blood: we've already got enough blood-drinkers up in DC. /rimshot. Stanton has a military background and bad haircuts. Ah, I shouldn't rag on him for that: I show up at salons with my double-crown and the barbers all kill themselves. Stanton's more Senatorial of the two, so go with him.

So for the Senate primaries, for Republicans, that's Beruff; for Democrats that's Murphy; for Libertarians that's Stanton. If we get any goats' blood drinkers on the general ballot, I swear I will cut this state off the map like Bugs Bunny and move to Detroit.

For the Congressional primaries, just vote Democrat and be done with it. I know we've made progress getting rid of most of the gerrymandering, but I still wanna see the Republicans thrown out for their constant obstruction and government shutdowns. At the State Lege level, yeah throw the GOP out too. We're choking on toxic algae waters and our schools are underfunded and our state wages are weak, and it's all on them for the last 20 years or so.

And for the Pasco Mosquito Control Board, we'll have to wait for the General Election in November.

For the rest of us, we still need to show up and vote for the judicial seats, local boards, and the state amendment. LET'S GET THE VOTE OUT, FLORIDA!

Anniversary (again): Woodstock August 15 1969

Yeah, I keep looking back at this moment. Even though I wasn't even born when it happened.

There's just something about the fact that 500,000 people gathered together in terrible, rainy, muddy, starving, and for some drug-hazed, conditions in the heat of August (even in New York) in the middle of Max Yasgur's farm outside of Bethel, and most basically walked away in good spirits and incredible memories.

For a weekend in 1969, they had a population that rivaled major cities. You could tell because the traffic was f-cked up.

For all the fears about getting so many young adults, likely on drugs - it got to where the Governor Nelson Rockefeller was just seconds away from calling in the National Guard, with the local law enforcement arguing against it - and potentially in a mood to riot if conditions got bad... nothing violent happened. Well, there were obviously a bunch of fights here and there (one food vendor burned down because they were inflating prices on their burgers) but for the most part people worked to keep the weekend event going. The local townsfolk volunteered to help with food rations. People did duty as first aid medics. Bands did extra sessions on stage to cover for acts that had to be flown in by helicopter.

It wasn't pretty.

But it was beautiful.

Usually in history when you get 500,000 together in one spot for an event, it tended to be a battlefield, massive armies pummeling each other into blood and death. Woodstock was one of those rare moments when that many people got together for a weekend to delight and enjoy and commune. Some didn't come away with that feeling, but many others did.

It was one of those moments that proved Rousseau right: that in a confusing and chaotic environment, coming at a problem with a blank slate, most humans would behave in their self-interest but towards a common good. At Woodstock, where people didn't know exactly what was going on, tried to behave as well as they could under the circumstances.

It was a situation where people more often shared their food rather than steal it. It was a situation where people took total strangers to the medical tents and helped out. It was a situation where one guy manned the Port-O-Sans to keep them clean and did it with a happy grin on his face.

Speaking of, I am sending up flares to Mr. Michael Taggart again. You left a comment on that Woodstock blogging I did about your father, but you didn't leave a contact email. PLEASE email me back, sir. I really want to hear your story.



Sunday, August 14, 2016

What Type of Election IS This, Anyway?

One of the things I keep seeing in the tweets and blogs is this concept of the 2016 Presidential cycle being a "Wave Election".

My political science knowledge is still at Amateur / College Student level, so I had to look that up.

Wikipedia pops up firstly - obviously - with their definition. It is:

...Major gains (that is, seats) made by a political party. Although there is no precise definition of what constitutes a wave election, the term is used in the United States when one party makes major gains in the House and Senate.

In a way, it doesn't involve the Presidency directly, although a Presidential candidate can influence or ride such a wave. Wave elections can happen in the midterms when it directly affects Congress.

What CAUSES a Wave election is also pretty obvious: Voter anger or dissatisfaction with how things are going. Problem is, which way do they direct that anger? And who stokes that anger to the boiling point?

We saw a good example of a Wave election back in 2010, when elderly white voters - just recovering from an election for Obama and the Democrats to overturn an incompetent Bush the Lesser administration and their Congressional enablers - were stoked by the Far Right media into a lobbyist-created "Tea Party" uprising. It overturned the Democratic gains of 2008 and led to the obstructionist gridlock of the last six years, during which even more anger against Obama and the government were stirred up by the Far Right to keep themselves in the game.

Thing is about anger: it is very hard to maintain. Oh, it is easy to stir one passions, but after the first few bursts of warmth you get from that rage you start looking at the actions you've done. And you start thinking through the gaps in logic that you jumped over while chasing after the objective that caused your rage in the first place. And you have to start thinking about repairing all the damage you did during your rampage. As a result, anger only gets you so far: It can get you into your political office, but it's not going to do you any good when you actually have to DO that job in office.

In terms of Presidential elections, a Wave election is only good for you when you have a need to gain or retain control of Congress when you get into the White House. For the Republicans, they don't need a Wave election for themselves as they've pretty much got the US House locked in via Gerrymander... but the Senate is up for grabs. Problem is, they are playing defense on the Senate: if there's any anger fueled towards the Senate, it'll be towards a bunch of Republican Senators refusing to do their jobs (SCOTUS vacancy, hint hint). It is possible there could be a great shift in Congress, considering how unpopular that branch has been, but Congress has been unpopular before and the Republicans were able to keep control...

If anything, using anger to generate a Wave election might backfire this time around: Railing against the failures of government could hurt you when your own party is clearly controlling said government. Despite all the deceptions, despite arguing against Democrats as destructive tax-happy libruls threatening TO TAKE YER GUNZ, a lot of voters know full well it's Republicans sitting in Congress doing NOTHING.

It doesn't help when your Presidential candidate running on a rage-fueled campaign - just guess what Trump did at his Connecticut speech last night? - is running on so blatant a racist, sexist, hate-driven platform to force a Wave election that he's causing a backlash. Not so much an ebb but a Riptide pulling away from the shoreline, sucking everyone else with him backwards into the deep ocean.

As such, this isn't a Wave Election at all. Is Riptide Election feasible? No, maybe Undertow works better.

I'd rather think that in normal circumstances this would have been a Legacy Election, where a sitting President with a popular base - and Obama's numbers are going up as the voters wake up to how he's actually done a good job despite the obstruction - could influence turnout to support his party's nominee: Get the voters who backed Obama in 2008 and 2012 to back his successor who would guarantee the gains made under Obama's administration survive (and even get upgraded).

But with all this anger - a lot of it generated by false accusations and driven by chaos - flooding the scene, it's going to be hard to focus on that Legacy. Which is probably what Trump wants.

Let's not let him have it. Turn this Wave into an Undertow. Stop Trump, and vote the Congressional Republicans out to sea with him. Flip the Senate, people. Screw gerrymandering, turn the House over to the Democrats. This is the type of election we need.

Friday, August 12, 2016

We Need To Redefine Battleground States

If the current Presidential polling is correct - and yes, it is still too early although it's getting to the point where the numbers have to be taken serious - then the states we USED to call toss-up battleground states are no longer in play:


States like Virginia and Colorado - with relatively large suburban, conservative-leaning voters - are currently for Hillary over Trump in double digits. That is almost unheard of outside of solid Blue states like California, Illinois and New York where urban and progressive-minded voters tend to be. North Carolina - which went Obama in 2008 but then flipped to Romney (and went Republican at the state level) in 2012 - is now solidly for Hillary. Florida is the only state where Trump even has a wisp of a chance polling five points under Hillary... and given how Florida went Obama TWICE and that our state is full of Hispanics and educated Whites, there's little hope for Trump - outside of voter suppression - to flip the Sunshine State any time soon.

And this is covering both variables of head-to-head (Hillary vs. Trump) and with the four-player race (Hillary vs. Trump vs. Johnson vs. Stein). Having the third-party candidates in the mix does not do Trump any favors and does not hurt Hillary one bit.

If we had to play out the Electoral College right now, the map is going to look like this. 


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com


Sadly, Utah is currently polling for Trump, which kinda hurts the narrative about Mormons hating the cheeto-faced ferret-wearing sh... uh, Mormons don't like the cursing, but anywho, you get the drift. Thing is, the polling still shows a tight race with Hillary within 5 points: Given how conservative Utah is, that is shockingly good performance for her. And something that she can use to turn Utah into a new battleground state.

And this map doesn't show how close Iowa is... and Indiana... and Mississippi... and South Carolina... and Texas is still a maybe... and...

Key thing remains: Getting the vote out is important. Polling is one thing, actual voting - and voting in large enough numbers to thwart any rigging - is everything.

Get to it, America. Stop Trump. Vote Hillary. I'm with her.

Even Dinsdale Was Frightened of Doug

Apparently this was what Trump was aiming for when he accused President Obama of being a founder of a major terrorist organization:

Oh, we all get sarcasm Donald. Do you get the fact that you were repeatedly asked about your accusation and for a whole day you said you were "literal," which is kind of the opposite of "sarcasm".

I get the feeling Trump would totally pussy out if he ever met Doug Piranha.



Palin: Doug. (shaking, takes a drink) I was terrified of him. Everyone was terrified of Doug. I've seen grown men pull their own heads off rather than see Doug. Even... Dinsdale was frightened of Doug.
Jones: What did he do?
Palin (eyes go wide for a second in horror): He used sarcasm. He knew all the tricks, dramatic irony, metaphor, bathos, puns, parody, litotes... and satire.

You see, Trump, Doug is a MASTER of sarcasm. You barely rank out of kindergarten, you con artist.

It doesn't help Trump's cause that every joke he tries is based on insult and degradation. Neither of those bits work with sarcasm at all.

How bad does Trump have to be at his stand-up routine before the judges hit that damn gong?

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Help A Blogger Out Pledge Drive

For the faithful readership you might notice that while I have a real-world full-time job, and that I moonlight at times as a (self) published author, I am someone struggling to make ends meet.

Some of this ties into the career I've chosen where the wages are not what you would call upper income (civil service at the city/county level will be like that). A lot of this struggle ties into that horrible four-year-long stretch of unemployment I suffered between 2009 to early 2013 where I barely found part-time work for a handful of months and my parents had to help big-time with stuff like the mortgage, medical bills, car repairs, and the like. I had accrued some debts onto my credit card that I tried and failed to manage (at one point I had to cash in a 457 retirement fund), to where I had to sign up for a non-profit debt relief program this year to finally try to pay that bill off.

Problem is, I am now on a very strict budget with something my parents are still helping me with, but now they're retired and they're also helping another family member struggling with unemployment. They're on a limited budget as well. And I really shouldn't be relying on them. I love them, they've done a lot for me, but I'm getting to the point I've got to take care of some of these things for myself.

Which is why I'm here begging asking for support with keeping this blog going.

While I'd love to see my writing career pick up increased readership, that'd fall more under wishful dreaming (either that or getting better at self-marketing). I'd love to see more traffic to my blog to where potential readers of my latest work Surviving the Age of Obstruction would happily buy a copy (or encourage their local library to do so).

I've been looking at Kickstarter-type sites to see what kind of fund-a-book project I could start, so there's a possibility for me there. I'd have to plan something I know is feasible within the time constraints and popular enough to draw an audience.

In the meantime, I have a PayPal donation link going on this blog. You can see it on the right-hand column at the top. I can see if I can add a link to the page here:

I can make this a pledge drive, should be simple. I hereby pledge to keep writing alarmist warnings about Donald Trump, and I also pledge to write about crazy political events here in Florida, and just for pure enjoyment I also pledge to post the occasional link to Pinku-Sensei's bar drinks (although sober, I do understand my clientele needs a stiff drink every so... TRUMP JUST SAID WHAT NOW?)

If anyone can help a blogger out, please give this some thought. Thank you.

And Now He Is Accusing Obama of Terrorism

He is essentially accusing our President - someone who has been leading our nation and allies in a long, bloody conflict against these terrorists - of literally being co-founder (with Hillary!) of the Islamic State (ISIL, Daesh, what have you).

/headdesk

Considering all of the things Trump has accused our President of doing - lacking any evidence to back his claims, and in fact going against all evidence we DO have - out and out Treason is a new low.

This is the standard attack plan of the con artist demagogue, since even before the days of Tailgunner Joe. Just accuse your opponent of anything and everything, including the aid and comfort of our nation's enemies, and never mind any consequence because you can claim First Amendment right as you campaign for public office. Never mind the outright lies, never mind the libel and defamation, never mind the distortion of history and reality. As long as your people eat it up, you'll keep serving it.

At some point, what Trump is doing is so obviously criminal that SOMEONE has to fucking arrest him for this. Force him to bring these charges to a grand jury, have him under oath, see him squirm then. Put him in jail for perjury, lying to a grand jury, lying to everybody. DO SOMETHING.

We should have ended all this crap back in the last century.

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Words

"Maybe there is, I don't know."

Worst weasel words you will ever see.

He says it, but oh hey He's not so sure about what he's talking about.

But he still throws it out there for consumption, for discussion and outrage and panic and despair.

He will say these words after he will say "oh, I'm the smartest guy I know, I know everything." And then wimp out by saying "I don't know" after he spells out an idea that is bound to cross a line of decency that should never be crossed.

He says it like he's telling a joke, but a real joke involves bathos, deprecation, a tweaking of the norms. A joke does not involve the demolition of the norms, nor does it resort to bullying and bloodshed.

"Maybe there is, I don't know."

He tries to hide so much behind those fraudulent excuses he gives right after he says the inexcusable.

He knows what he's saying. He thinks it's how he'll win.

John Cole warned us of Peak Wingnut, and then it turned out Peak Wingnut is a lie because the wingnuts will never reach their plateau when it comes to fake outrage and delusional ideology.

Now look to the opposite when it comes to Trump. Nadir is the antonym of Peak. Here comes Nadir Trump. That too is a lie because Trump will keep sinking beneath every line, every norm, every layer of common sense and decency.

And you, Republicans, you let him loose.

Personal Note About My Latest Book

Well, I double-checked with the XLibris publisher about the release of Surviving the Age Of Obstruction: Notes from the Obama Years about whether it will come with an ebook version.

Turns out the package I purchased - which got revised from when I originally bought it in 2004, never sit on these things people it goes bad on ya - was for the Softcover version only. You'd think it'd be easy to convert to an ebook format, but apparently not.

This doesn't entirely make sense, though. I'd thought I bought a package that covers it. I'm going to follow up on this.

Tuesday, August 09, 2016

At What Point Does Trump Become a Clear And Present Danger to EVERYONE'S Lives? (w/ Updates)

Did he just say what I think he just said?


Per Esme Cribb at Talking Points Memo:

Donald Trump suggested at a Tuesday rally that "the Second Amendment people" might be the only ones who can take action against a Clinton presidency.
In a speech at the University of North Carolina, Trump suggested gun owners could take Clinton out in order to prevent her appointing judges to the Supreme Court.
"If she gets to pick her judges," Trump said, "nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is."

This is essentially Trump calling out for that "Second Amendment Remedy," a phrase that's been floating out there among the Far Right every time they get angry or antsy about something Obama or the Democrats are about to win. The shorthand - the not-so-hidden message - is that the gun-nuts who believe the Second Amendment is "their" right to arm themselves against the government will rise up and "solve" the problem.

And this shit is NOT FUNNY. Trump and his cronies may try to pass this off as a joke, but violence in the real world with serious consequences is NOT a GODDAMN JOKE.

And this isn't imaginary or fake or a pipe dream. We've seen these Second Amendment fetishists commit these acts of gun violence again and again. Remember Oregon earlier this year? Remember the Planned Parenthood shooting?

There are genuine crazy people out there with easy access to firearms who only need the incentive to go and make themselves into "heroes" by shooting the hell out of everybody else.

And Trump right now just egged them on.

It doesn't matter if Trump was suggesting an act of violence towards Hillary, or if Trump was suggesting acts of violence towards any Justices Hillary would nominate. The key thing here is TRUMP WAS SUGGESTING AN ACT OF VIOLENCE, PERIOD.

He called on a group of people who have been pumped up with anger and outrage for DECADES to take to "their" Second Amendment and create a solution. One that speaks of gun violence and death.

At what point does verbal threats like what Trump just did cross a legal threshold? Nobody has the right to go around making death threats, this is not protected speech here. HE IS CALLING ON ACTS OF VIOLENCE.

Someone better fucking arrest him.

Note: follow here to Tom Levenson and Betty Cracker at Balloon Juice, and Charlie Pierce at Esquire, just to get a sense of how maddening this whole thing has become.

Update: I should include Comrade Misfit here. This is someone who, although I agree with a sizable amount of her policy views, is still someone pro-gun ownership and pro-2nd Amendment and I would probably argue over the merits of "well-regulated" vs. "shall not be infringed" with her well into Judgment Day. And even she knows Trump just went Full Batshit Cray-Cray here.

Further: Emily L. Hauser on Twitter is remembering her years in Israel listening to all the violent rhetoric towards Rabin.

And don't forget what happened to Gabby Giffords.

This shit is NOT a joke.

Florida Ballot Time, 2016 Edition: The Primary Vote, With an Amendment On the Line

Normally I don't promote the statewide primary balloting information because it's mostly just the partisan, intraparty votes for legislative seats, or else votes for School Board and judicial seats that require paying attention to the local newspapers for recommendations.

This year is a little different, because this 2016 our state placed an Amendment referendum on the Primary ballot and not the General Election one. Oddly, it's a Legislatively-approved amendment... so there's possibly some kind of trickery involved here because we can't trust this Republican-led state lege on anything... so let's take a look at this:

Amendment Four: Solar Energy Tax Exemptions

The ballot summary should read like this:

Proposing an amendment to the State Constitution to authorize the Legislature, by general law, to exempt from ad valorem taxation the assessed value of solar or renewable energy source devices subject to tangible personal property tax, and to authorize the Legislature, by general law, to prohibit consideration of such devices in assessing the value of real property for ad valorem taxation purposes. This amendment takes effect January 1, 2018, and expires on December 31, 2037

It's odd to get an amendment to the state's constitution with an expiration date, for one. My layman's interpretation of the wording is that solar/renewable energy devices will be exempt from property values for tax calculations.

The link I have to Ballotpedia's entry on the amendment shows a lot of strong support for it even among political leaders and organizations that would be in favor of solar and renewable energy. There's another Amendment up for vote this November - Amendment One - which focuses more on the individual right to own/lease your own solar energy equipment, so I don't see Four conflicting with One in any way. So in some respects - even in the form of tax cutting - this might be a good amendment. I just can't come to terms with this state's GOP legislature actually doing something... well, sane and positive. I'd be voting YES on this. But... but... there's gotta be a catch to this, right...?

In all other things, this statewide primary is pretty much a standard, let's-get-our-ducks-in-a-row local vote to choose the final candidates for the General election battle.

The official primary is Tuesday August 30, with Early Voting set for Saturday August 20 through Saturday August 27.

There's no default statewide ballot to refer to since local elections and state districts make it painful to list every one, so it's best to find the County's Supervisor of Elections site for the area in which you live for more details.

Now that I live in Polk County, look here for the Republican ballot, this for the Democratic ballot, this one's the Libertarian ballot... hey, wait, they get their own this time? Ah, they have a contest for the US Senator slot. And here's the one I'll be getting as a No-Party Affiliate.

Just for those old-timers who read me back when I covered Pasco County, here's the appropriate links for you. You have to figure out your precinct first, then select the appropriate ballot. If we went by my old haunts, it'd be this ballot for me. You may note the Pasco County Mosquito Control Board is not listed for this election: you will have to wait for the General election in November to CHOOSE YOUR MOSQUITO CONTROLLERS.

Just remember, fellow Floridians: GET THE DAMN VOTE OUT. I don't care if it's the primary: we get another weak showing of 24 to 33 percent of all voters again, this will be our own damn fault if we don't get the candidates we need.

Monday, August 08, 2016

A Day's Drive Up US 19, Perhaps

Just saying again: Having a solidly conservative state like Georgia showing signs of flipping to Hillary Clinton in the Presidential election - even with Johnson and Stein in the equation - gives me a warm feeling.

Although I've lived almost my entire life - 39 years of it - in the crazy hazy Sunshine State, Georgia remains in my heart as the state of my birth.

With Dad serving as a US Navy pilot at the time, the family was stationed in Albany when me and my twin brother were born. Mom keeps remembering the doctors were talking about a football game during the labor, which didn't make sense for May, unless it was a spring practice or something. Still, it's the little details that stand out...

I'm in the mood to go visit the old homestead. I haven't been there since the family moved in 1974 for a brief stay in Virginia Beach before Dad retired in 1976 and we relocated for the most part to the Florida Gulf Coast. I've been on a lot of road trips through Georgia but was always passing through - to DC/Maryland many times to visit Dad's family, and up along the interstates on a major road trip from South Florida to Chicago for an ALA convention in 2000 - and never with a proper time to swing through Albany (being a little out of the way in the corner of Southwest Georgia).

But hey, it's a straight ride up US 19 - ah, to start the trip in Palm Harbor! - and the maps say it'll take five-and-a-half hours, which is half a business day and leaves maybe an hour or two of circling the Pokestops before driving home (unless I take the step of checking into a hotel and staying for a full day).

'Course, my budget is insanely tight. I can barely afford a day of doing a comic-con (at $40 a ticket and extra for buying birthday gifts. Driving up is going to consume gas more than two stops, three meals a day unless I pack a lot of stuff into coolers but then the temptation to eat someplace local and colorful will be paramount, the hotel is probably going to set me back $70 or so for something decent with a sit-down bathtub...

Sigh. One of these days I gotta win a lotto or something.

Saturday, August 06, 2016

In Time, I May Document These Comic-Cons With More Florid Prose, But Until Then It's the 2016 Tampa Bay Comic Con!

(Update: Thank you Infidel753 for the link to your wrapup!)

I almost didn't go this year, but changed my mind when I figured out my fiscal budget could handle the indulgence (just a little: there is no way I will be able to buy any booze for the next three months... which is okay because I'm sober and don't drink booze).

So much like I've done the year before and the year before that and the year... yeah, there's your trend for ya... SAY HELLO TO DOCUMENTED EVIDENCE that I attended the 2016 Tampa Bay Comic Con!

Early morning opening on the showroom floor. Don't worry, it'll get packed soon...



This year I was on a mission, more on that later...

And here's an early morning - way early, as most people were still in line up on the mezzanine - writer's panel! Bill Hatfield, remind me the names of the ladies joining you on the discussion.

This is still early in the morning: the gaming rooms were still getting set up.

Tampa doesn't get a lot of steampunk cosplay, unlike Orlando's MegaCon, but there's still some incredible designs here.

Alas, I did not dress up as a Jedi this year, as I had other plans. So I took pictures of everybody else being a Sith...



A Rey of Sunshine.
Yes, I punned. Sue me.

Getting seated for the one guest speaker appearance I could watch today...

It's Clara for the Oswin! (okay, it's Jenna Coleman).

Had to upload to YouTube and link the video from there.

Told you...

...it would...

...get busier!

That's Daryl from Walking Dead. Huge line for photos and autographs... He's incredibly popular. Don't forget, if Daryl dies we riot.

You know, I'm in this mob somewhere...

I AM GROOT guy wins best Cosplay costume in my humble opinion.
Guy was getting a lot of requests for pics in Artist's Alley...

SPIDERS! Nope nope nope nope nope nope... well, okay, Spider-Gwen can stay...

Gaming hall after lunch time. Definitely packed now.

This is the line for zombification. If you're here for parasitic infection, that line is back up on the third floor for the video game cosplayers.

Lady Loki did me a favor taking a picture of me, and I requested I get one of her. Thank ye again!

Look kids! Jim Shooter talking about writing comic books!

Say hello to Rochelle the Teenage Cockroach!

You might remember last year meeting John Crowther - a friend of my brother Phil - starting up this comic series via Antarctic Press. He's been busy promoting the title and it's started to get good reviews and brisk sales.

Things I didn't get pictures of: Pokemon.

With Pokemon GO an addicting phone app game, there was every likelihood the convention center would be a haven for Pokeball throwing madness. Well, it was kind of yes and no. The Tampa Convention Center - and a good part of surrounding Downtown Tampa - is rife with PokeStops and Gyms... But they were all well away from the building itself, too far to activate a Stop for supplies or battle for a Gym. However, the PokeStops were close enough to drop Lures on them to spawn armies of Pokemon to catch... meaning you can run out of balls real quick.

It also didn't help that there's no free WiFi inside the convention center. I know it's a for-profit convention where you gotta spend $15 for lunch, but complimentary WiFi isn't gonna wipe out the budget will it?

On the bright side I caught like 20 MagiKarps. You need like 150 of them to Evolve one to the powerful Serpent Pokemon. It all has to do with location: The Convention Center is right on the channel AND river, and geographic closeness to water spawns more Water-type Pokemon...

Anyway, my mission: I still owe my nephew Andrew a birthday present from last year (!) and one this year, so I bought a (information withheld until the gift is delivered). It took me months to get anybody to tell me (redacted) so I picked out (classified). I hope he likes it.

Anyway, there's my Saturday done and done. What's next, peoples?

Friday, August 05, 2016

It HAS To Be a Blowout

(Update: Thank you, Infidel753, for the link!)

The ongoing news about the 2016 Elections is going well: Hillary's numbers are up and Trump's numbers are down.

The big buzz is how certain states for the Electoral College are being viewed as safely Blue (Democratic) to where Hillary can cut back on the ad campaigns in Colorado and Virginia. From Jim Newell at Slate.com:

The withdrawals are shocking because these are not traditional blue states. Barack Obama converted them in 2008 and held onto them in 2012. It takes the mind some time to adjust first to the changing of the colors and then, after multiple elections, their deepening. But the numbers seem to check out. Clinton has always polled strongly in Virginia, and there haven’t been any new public polls since the Democratic convention or her selection of Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine as her running mate—or, for that matter, since the beginning of Trump’s ongoing nightmare week. Colorado, meanwhile, hasn’t looked competitive for a while.
Take these two states and their 22 electoral votes off the table and Trump’s available paths narrow from a few to … two. Let’s start with the 2012 map as a baseline. Trump could flip Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to get to 273. He could win Florida and Ohio, lose Pennsylvania, and then win Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire to get to 269—i.e., an Electoral College tie and a vote in the House of Representatives. There’s still time for other states to enter competition: Maybe Michigan or Wisconsin starts feeling the red itch. And then there’s always the path in which Trump wins every state, beautifully, by a landslide, look at these crowds, and it would be terrific, just terrific.
Cut back on the sarcasm, Jim, that's MY job.

The point is, Trump is losing any chance of garnering the swing states he'd need to pull off a victory. Essentially, every state that voted for Obama in 2012 - save for Ohio, where the polling is in flux - isn't flipping to the Cheeto-faced ferret-wearing sh-tgibbon any time soon.

Even better for the forces of sanity, Trump is losing the reliably Red states:




Granted, polls don't equal actual votes. But the polling has been 9-out-10 accurate (or close enough) this election cycle to where it's going to take a literal shift in Earth's orbit to shake things up.

Why I'm thrilled Georgia is showing signs of flipping Blue on the map is that if this happens - if November 8th comes and Hillary and the Democrats are able to make major gains in Red states like North Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas - this can well be the death-knell of the Republicans' Southern Strategy.

What has been the keystone for Republican game-planning for over 40 years since 1968-1972 of the Nixon campaigns, the Southern Strategy is what created the hard conservative ideology of the GOP that maintained discipline and won the occasional Presidential election, as well as grant them demographic control of the House of Representatives by using gerrymandering to craft safe Far Right districts.

It also helped turn the modern Republican Party into a bunch of racists, dog-whistling about black crime and illegal immigrants and ungodly women and sinful gays. Okay, I may exaggerate: There are still a good number of registered Republicans who are not haters at heart, who are as embarrassed and flummoxed by all this nightmarish stuff as the rest of us. But those Republicans are in hiding and refusing to confront this elephant - couldn't avoid this metaphor - in their room.

Conor Friedersdorf over at the Atlantic muses if the "White Identity Politics" has already poisoned the GOP to death:

The self-interested reason for conservatives to fear white identity politics is demographic: there’s an expiration date on any coalition that wins white men without college degrees but alienates a “Rainbow coalition” that includes college-educated whites. That date may have already passed. Imagine choosing now, of all moments, to run a campaign that actively antagonizes Hispanics who were born in the United States.

That date did pass, Conor. The second Trump made his campaign announcement by shitting on Mexicans and NOBODY in the Republican ranks did anything to shut him down, that was kinda the end.

This is why it's important for states like Georgia and Virginia and North Carolina and Texas (!) and MAYBE Mississippi and MAYBE South Carolina (!) join with Florida (which hasn't been really part of the Deep South since Disney World turned a profit) and vote Democrat. It has to be done in defiance of the most openly racist candidate we've had since George Wallace in 1972. It has to be done in a way to break the Far Right White-Boy dominance of the southern states.

It has to be done to break the Republicans' desperate game-plan to use racism to win their elections.

It won't be enough for the election to be a close win for Hillary / close loss for Trump. If it's close, the GOP handlers and candidates ambitious for 2020 will think to themselves "It could have worked if Trump weren't so obviously scary to picture in the Oval Office" and "I can win running his type of campaign, just smarter and organized."

It has to be decisive. It has to be clear to even the most blindly devoted psychotics at Fox Not-News that their way - fearmongering about the Other - no longer works.

It has to be Hillary winning big, racking up all of Obama's 2012 states as well as picking up North Carolina and Georgia and Mississippi and Louisiana and Texas And Kansas and Arizona and Utah and Missouri and heck let's throw in one of the Dakotas.

It has to be the Senate campaigns - all thirty-four of them - flipping to the Democrats, a defiant slap in the face to the Republican Senators refusing to do their jobs like filling Supreme Court vacancies.

It has to be House Republicans - sitting in many a gerrymandered district thinking themselves "safe" - losing enough seats that the Democrats gain control of both houses of Congress after six years of Republican obstruction and incompetence.

It has to be the state governments of Kansas and Michigan and North Carolina and Florida getting cleaned out of Republicans who have mismanaged those states into bankruptcy or worse.

It has to be a blowout: Republicans losing their power across the board.

Maybe then - it's a fool's hope to think they will give up their Godly Narrative of Guns and Tax Cuts and White Pride, but still one must hope - they will wake up, stop dreaming it's 1985 1955 1855, and move into the 21st Century.

Get.
The.
DAMN.
VOTE.
OUT.
America.

And vote against everything the modern Republicans represent.

Wednesday, August 03, 2016

On Polling: What Should We Be Looking For?

Now that we're past both nominating conventions and that we're going to be getting away from the post-con bounces both Presidential nominees get, what should we be looking for among the polls - check here, check here, and follow up with Sober Nate Silver there - during the months of August and September?

1) Keep an eye on women. Where most polling focused during previous election cycles on ethnic blocs - White, Black, Hispanic, Asian and Other - the real split this 2016 is happening with the Men-Women vote.

As noted earlier, Silver and his fellow stat checkers at 538.com documented the severe hatred women have towards Trump. This is a key demographic as A) more women historically show up to vote than men and B) we're talking about ALL women including White voters who would normally be voting Republican.

White voters in 2012 voted around 60 percent for Romney (R), which had to include a high number of women among men. This HuffPo poll from 2012 results showed Romney won White Women voters 56 percent. Even with that number - considering Whites vote in greater overall numbers than all other ethnic groups combined - Romney still LOST. Trump in 2016 has to perform higher than that... but if White Women break away from White Men, Trump can't do that.

According to this 2016 Pew Research poll, Trump is only polling 35 percent to Clinton's 53 percent with Women overall. Among White Women Trump is getting 42 percent. Note the difference between 56 percent White Women in 2012 for Mitt to 42 percent White Women currently for Trump. That's a minus-14 point drop. Trump is not getting 60 percent of overall White voters this year, he just isn't...

2) Remember that the non-White voting blocs are so currently opposed to the Republican Party and so opposed to Trump that those groups are not going to flip to the GOP in significant numbers to help Republicans.

Black voters are likely to stay near 95-98 percent in favor of the Democrats. Hispanic voters are likely to be above 80 percent in favor of Dems by Election Day. Asian voters are reportedly getting close to being close to 80 percent for Dems as well.

While the total number of each voting bloc can't equal White Voters overall, the advantage to the Democrats having minority voters entirely with their party is that it reduces the odds of Blue and battleground states from flipping to Red/Republican. Consider them a firewall.

These are no longer elections fought by issues or ideology. We are now in elections fought over demographics (which explains why Republicans are so desperate to suppress voting rights for minorities).

3) Hispanic voters are the wild card this election cycle.

It's because polling for Hispanic voters is harder to do than for the other voting blocs, over communication - few polling units use Spanish-language surveys - and overall unwillingness to answer those surveys. So there's little idea how the turnout of that group - which is close to surpassing registration numbers for Black voters - is actually going to happen.

There's solid evidence Hispanic voters are registering in larger numbers than before, and they've got a good incentive to vote this time as Trump's illegal immigration policies are a direct threat to themselves (even as legal citizens, Hispanic-Americans know exactly what can happen in a mass round-up of anyone even looking remotely Latino). The problem - as always - remains turnout. If overall turnout of Hispanic voters gets above 50 percent - and remains around 80 percent Democrat - that will be good news for Hillary's camp.

Is there anything else we should be looking for?

Oh, right.

GET THE VOTE OUT, PEOPLE. Polling may be one thing but what MATTERS is the actual DAMN TURNOUT!