Insert hour-long screaming here.
This shouldn't be surprising. trump has talked about wanting to be a dictator well before 2015, and his admiration for the likes of Putin and Philippines President Duterte are on the record.
It's just never a good thing to read about trump. The threat of Cadet Bone Spurs staying in the White House well past his welcome would drive a teetotaler like me back to another attempt at drinking hard cider.
So, as the morning rises and I've had a chance to step back and assess the situation, how dire and real a threat is this?
Right off the bat, we need to point at the 22nd Amendment and go "Thank God Republicans HATED FDR That Much."
That part of the Constitution is turning out to be a life-saver. By capping Presidential terms to two, it forces a would-be dictator hoping to rule forever to vacate in 8 years no matter what. Granted, the amendment doesn't remove the guy from ALL power - trump could arguably go from a two-term stint to running for the US Senate and retaining control on a puppet front-man - but the system of checks and balances in place would severely crimp any attempt to rule from behind the curtains.
If trump wants to rule forever, he either has to get the 22nd Amendment abolished with a new amendment or ignore it altogether.
I've mentioned elsewhere, passing any amendment is tougher than expected. You need either a Constitutional Convention - unlikely, as both parties in Congress are terrified of how uncontrollable such a thing is - or you need two-thirds of BOTH Houses of Congress PLUS two-thirds (I think 38) of the states to approve it.
If trump thinks both Congress and the states will do this deed for him, he's beyond delusional and pretty much insane. By example, there was talk of repealing the 22nd for Ronald Reagan, who was popular enough among the voting base and across enough states to make it a feasible effort. There is no goddamn way trump is as popular as Reagan ever was. If trump tries to make this push, he is not going to find enough votes even among Republican Congresscritters (despite their fears of their own party base). And even state legislatures controlled by Republicans would recoil by the obvious move towards dictatorship this will be.
That means trump would have to ignore the amendment outright (or suspend all elections for as long as he can). This would be so unconstitutional a move - so much in violation of the Oath of Office to "faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of (his) ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States" - that the entire federal government should fall apart in opposition to him.
For trump to pull this off, he'd have to have the entire military on his side. While a President does serve as Commander-in-Chief, the military is not directly loyal to the President but instead to the Constitution. They have rules allowing them to refuse to follow any order they view as "illegal or in violation of" the Constitution. I do not think any of the Joint Chiefs - the heads of each military branch - owe trump any favors, especially something on this scale.
trump certainly won't have the Will of the People backing him either. he remains one of the most deeply unpopular (HATED) Presidents in modern polling. trump may have the support of the Far Right voting base - and definitely among the Neo-Nazis and racists he caters to - but those number in the thousands not millions. 62 million people may have voted for him, but a lot of them held their noses to do it (hating Hillary more at that moment). I would argue enough of them did not vote for him to become a dictator to rule outside of the law: If he tries this we would see a mass exodus of Republican voters from the party that would wreck its electoral chances far beyond any gerrymandering or vote-rigging the party could try.
trump's attempt would cause a schism among the states themselves. Solid Blue states like New York and California would declare his presidency illegal. Solid Red states would support him, but a number of them might not because even their local political ranks would fear the implications (trump would ignore the system of dividing powers between the states and the federal governments).
If trump tries to become Dictator-For-Life, he would have to do with a dwindling support staff. Not only is he losing people to Mueller's criminal probes into his 2016 campaign, Mueller is also digging into all of trump's business dealings now (pursuing just how deep Russia's ties to trump already were during that campaign) meaning trump's own family and his own financial base are threatened. Anybody who helped trump during 2016 is not going to be there to help him run in 2020 if he even tries for a second term: They certainly are not there to help him plan a coup.
On top of that, his administrative attrition is happening at a pace faster than any previous administration: he's not keeping anybody on long enough for them to learn the ropes, and he's failing at attracting the best and the brightest among even Republican supporters to fill major vacancies (nobody who's serious about a political career wants to work for him). A move of this scale requires a team of a large enough scale and political pull to clamp down on all threats, solve all contingencies, steamroll over any opposition. trump's West Wing can't even figure out the goddamn light switches, and he's down to maybe, what, thirty-one staffers in a White House that needs about three-hundred?
The only ones on the entire planet who would want trump to make himself Dictator are the nations who know his move would shatter us: Putin in particular would revel in the collapse of the world's most visible democratic republic. China and half the Middle East would kick back and pop the champagne bottles as well. However, I doubt any of them would actively involve themselves in such an attempt. Even Putin would rather sit on the sidelines and let us decimate ourselves, without the risk of committing resources that could compromise or trouble him. If trump thinks his buddy Vlad will help out, he better expect the only thing for the Russians to do is pat trump on the back and tell him "you go girl."
In short: trump has no political clout or muscle to pull this off. he could try, but it would be his final move.
It would be a messy one. trump could get some supporters in Congress to back him, but it would likely drive any remaining Centrist/Moderate Republicans out of the Party into a third party to oppose him. trump could get some of the military troops - the covert racists among the ranks - and a handful of officers buying into the wingnut mythos, but not enough of the high-ranking officers to make a coup attempt stick. trump could get local law enforcement to back him, but most of them are only in a position to uphold laws at their level (and city/county governments may not want to get involved either way).
The worst part would be the Far Right militia crowd who would rally to trump's effort to become dictator, who would lash out not at the federal government but at their local communities much like the SA Brownshirts would smash their way across 1930s Germany. Those militia may number about 50,000 or so hard-core members, but that would be just enough - and spread across enough states - to cause serious damage to millions of innocent American lives.
If trump tries to make himself Dictator, we will be deep into our Second Civil War, bloody and messy and leaving the United States tattered perhaps beyond repair.
Hurry up, Mueller. Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
1 comment:
Nope. He couldn't pull it, and without majority support, doesn't have the balls to try. It was probably his sick idea of a joke, remember, saying outrageous things to get attention and reaction is pretty much the only thing he's good at.
The goddamn Republicans, on the other hand, are frighteningly close to having enough states to call a constitutional convention, but going by the emails I get these days, it's looking like that might not be the case post-November.
-Doug in Oakland
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