This has been breaking news for the past hour or so. This is via Libby Nelson at Vox.com:
A US airstrike killed a top Iranian military official, along with four others, at the Baghdad airport early Friday morning, according to a Pentagon statement. The attack represents a major escalation of simmering hostilities between the US and Iran.
The death of Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, who led Iranian covert operations and intelligence and one of the country’s most revered military leaders, was reported by Iraqi state television early Friday morning local time, according to multiple US media sources, and confirmed in a statement from the Pentagon.
“General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region,” the Pentagon said in a statement. “General Soleimani and his Quds Force were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more.”
The statement concluded: “This strike was aimed at deterring future Iranian attack plans.”
Iran has not issued an official response to the attack, but has criticized the US for its involvement in the region in recent days.
The attack comes after days of escalating tensions. An American contractor was killed near Kirkuk, Iraq, last week and 4 military members were injured in an attack by Iranian-backed militia Kataib Hezbollah. A retaliatory strike by the US killed 25 members of the militia and injured more than 50. Then, on New Year’s Eve on Tuesday, militia members attacked the US embassy in Baghdad...
While this looks on its face like a great moment for the United States - woohoo, we took out a terrorist, an Iranian bigwig woohoo! Team America FUCK Yeah! - this is in fact scaring the hell out of every foreign policy and Middle East expert across the Intertubes and for good reason. To refer to Adam L Silverman at Balloon Juice:
...This strike will also enrage the Iranians and provide the Iranian government with an internal opening for influence and propaganda to rally support for the Iranian state among a domestic Iranian population that may be wavering. So it will likely retard reform in general and attempts at democratization in specific in the short to medium term. Especially if there is immediate Iranian response and/or escalation to today’s attack and a US response to Iran’s actions that can be used by the Iranian government to reinforce its standing with the Iranian people.
Finally, I don’t see why anyone in the Iranian government would talk to anyone in the US government at this point while the current administration is in place. The President, his senior officials, and surrogates have made it clear that they really aren’t interested in talking. Last week Putin announced that he’s not going to go along with the sanctions regime against Iran any longer, which further reinforces to Iran that they don’t need to talk to us as they have Putin to leverage as a patron. I also expect that Iran will sell their oil to the Chinese because Xi could care less about our sanctions. There is no way to squeeze the Iranians economically as the government is impervious to the pain and has ways to sell its oil to ease that pain. You can find my take on why making war in Iran would be strategic malpractice unless we were prepared for total war and even then it isn’t a good idea at West Point’s Modern War Institute.
My take: This is essentially one step away from honest-to-GOD war with Iran.
This isn't like the strike Obama called on Bin Laden back in 2011. Bin Laden by then was a pariah figure among most Muslim power brokers and nations with few allies to defend or mourn him. The backlash against his death was meager (and in some ways welcomed) across the Middle East. This is different. Soleimani was a high-ranking figure within the Iranian government itself, a major player with ally Syria, and someone well-connected among the Shi'a militia forces threatening much of Iraq and Kurdish areas not yet flattened by Turkey/Russia.
This is like Iran calling an airstrike on the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. The kind of thing that would trigger a major political and military response from us. The kind of thing where a declaration of war would be a rational response.
And yet it wouldn't surprise me if trump and his remaining foreign policy/military advisors would welcome this move. trump thinks war is a game and probably thinks this is the kind of thing that will win him more support and silence his Democratic critics.
But war for political gain is no longer a smart move. War for conquest and resources ends up squandering both.
And like I blogged before, going to war against Iran is NOT a good idea.
We are being led into another quagmire - much like the 2003 Iraqi invasion and occupation - only this time against a stronger opponent in harsher terrain with fewer allies, and led by a Shitgibbon who doesn't know the first thing of winning at Risk let alone winning a war against another nation.
We are so very fucking royally fucked.
2 comments:
Wag the dog.
-Doug in Oakland
Some folks complained about Obama's deal with Iran seemingly because it wasn't "perfect" according to some standards. However, Iran was complying. Along comes the stable genius to rescue us from the "worst deal in history" which is his way of covering his anus since the only motivation was tearing up the black man's accomplishment(s). Boy, he sure showed him.
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