As I was writing yesterday about the expectations of when donald trump would get indicted in New York City (at least, for all we know the Fulton County DA's office may jump in first) some time next week, trump himself hopped onto social media screaming (CAPS LOCK is his friend!) how it was going to happen on Tuesday and that his followers needed to "PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK!"
(You might also notice trump's media rant name-drops George Soros which is dog-whistle for anti-Semitism. trump is clearly signaling the haters of his MAGA base.)
You might wonder how trump could be so specific about the day the grand jury indictments will drop, but apparently the prosecutors give defense lawyers a heads-up when to have their clients ready to turn themselves in for custody and arraignment. Still, even the reality that it's going to happen has gotten trump to the point of open panic.
trump's call for protests echoes the same calls he made after the 2020 election results went against him, and he summoned up a protest rally that turned into an insurrection meant to disrupt the Electoral Count in Congress. Now, he's calling for protests to start riots in the streets of Manhattan to bully the legal system into submission.
Tom Nichols at the Atlantic can see trump's agitation for what it is:
Let us begin with the obvious thing that just happened: This morning, Donald Trump threatened to summon a mob—for the second time in two years—to his defense. The former president of the United States and a leading candidate for the Republican nomination for the White House in 2024, facing a possible indictment in New York, claimed to know the exact day on which he would be arrested and then called on his supporters to “protest.” Trump and his cult know what a call for “protest” means: The last time he rallied his faithful supporters this way, they stormed the U.S. Capitol, which resulted in death and destruction and many, many prison sentences.
Spokespeople from the former president’s office have already walked back Trump’s statement, noting that they have not been told of any specific date for an indictment or an arrest. Indeed, any attempt to book Trump is unlikely to happen as soon as Tuesday, for many reasons. But that’s not the point. Trump’s message today to the American people has already come through loud and clear: I am too dangerous to arrest.
There's debate out there whether these indictments are actually good for trump. It's been done: trump uses the attacks on him to market himself to his followers as both Martyr and Hero. Getting charged for crimes trump can claim as "Witch Hunts" will inspire his base - already believing all the other lies he's sold them - to support him even more. There's an argument that trump's rage-tweets are merely more marketing efforts to boost his viability (to trump, even bad press is good for him).
But trump's panic should be considered real, and dangerous.
Nearly all of trump's previous clashes with the legal system have been Civil cases: lawsuits by defrauded victims, appearances in bankruptcy courts to avoid creditors, sexual harassment claims, and fights over business deals trump broke time and again.
This time, trump is facing Criminal indictment, likely on various charges just in the Manhattan district case alone. Criminal cases are vastly different from Civil ones, and the punishments if found Guilty in criminal cases more harsh than being found Liable in civil cases.
In a criminal matter, trump is not going up against a small business owner or a disgruntled victim, ones he can bully and harass into settlements where trump can avoid admission of liability: He's going up against a government aka The State (technically a City level in this matter) with more resources and less patience for delay tactics that trump's lawyers could play in civil matters. trump can't make any settlement in a criminal matter: the State is going to want at least minimum jail time on at least one charge, and a public confession in open court (something that trump as a narcissist can never admit) to the things trump would have to plead guilty to make the deal stick.
trump may enjoy the benefits of campaigning to his MAGA base as a Martyr to a Librul Legal System. But campaigning at worst as a convicted felon, at best as a confessed criminal on even a misdemeanor plea deal will likely scare away the Independent voters both he and the Republicans dare not lose in 2024, and could even dissuade the non-MAGA Republican voters from voting at all. The other side of that situation is increased voter turnout by Democrats unwilling to let a confessed or convicted criminal like trump anywhere near the White House again.
trump does have an advantage in criminal matters in that the burden of proof for the State is stricter than civil matters. However, trump is facing the reality that the grand jury's review of the evidence suggests more than enough proof existed for the DA to proceed. It'll all come down to trial jury by "peers" that trump can't officially bully or tamper with. trump - or at least his lawyers - can't run the risk of testifying on the stand, even though trump likely believes he can charm anybody and gaslight his way out of trouble (in reality trump's bragging arrogance on the stand is a huge turn-off to juries). In a case like this, trump's lawyers could fight the allegations without trump's testimony, but without it they run the risk of the jury agreeing with the DA's versions of events (and believing witnesses Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels and several others regarding trump's culpability).
In short: trump can't handle the high risks of facing a criminal court indictment.
Threatening the DA's office, threatening violent protests like January 6th only this time in the streets of New York City, is the best option trump has to avoid the risk altogether. Like the Sicilian mob bosses who order hits on Italian judges, trump wants to spill enough blood to convince the legal system to not even think about going after him.
But trump never really thinks all of this through. The early reports are that the NYPD and FBI and other agencies are already planning for trump's rioters to show up. They've seen this movie. Unlike January 6th, trump and his handlers can't sabotage the security efforts, meaning the police and other law enforcement won't be undermanned and vulnerable to attacks.
Despite the conservative nature of a lot of police officers and federal agents - a number of them MAGA at heart - most of them will show up to do their jobs if ordered towards "keeping the peace" and preventing any violence from escalating.
And despite what trump believes about his followers - and yes, he has millions of Americans awaiting every command he issues - they're not going to show up in numbers this time to overwhelm anything. Don't forget even for his "big rally" to spark the January 6th riots, he only had roughly 2,000 people show up for him actually raid the Capitol. Hundreds of them have already been convicted or plead out, most of them in jail right now and unable to rally to trump's aid.
There may be 74 million Americans willing to vote for trump, but there's nowhere near that number willing to fight (or die) for trump and the racist sexist ideology he represents. A lot of trump supporters still have to think about their personal obligations - family, children, work, their own health, their own income - and can't show up as trump expects.
There may be violence in the streets of New York City this coming week, but it won't be all-out war. Most Americans are going to stay home and keep themselves as safe as possible. All we can hope for is that the bloodshed be kept at a minimum.
Gods help us, in a nation threatened by open-carry laws and easy access to assault rifles, minimum bloodshed is the best we can ever pray for...
1 comment:
The January 6 insurrection was planned for months and organized and financed by high level wingnut paramilitary groups with the object of stealing an election in the final stage of certification.
Fergus, of course, believed it was all for and about him.
The NYPD is the size of an army, with 35,783 uniformed officers and just shy of 20,000 civilian employees. The DC Metro and Capitol Police have less than 6,000 officers between them.
The NYPD may lean conservative, as do most police forces, but officers died in the January 6 insurrection, and there are few things police of any stripe take as seriously as fallen comrades.
Fergus and his idiot hordes are in the "fuck around" phase right now. If and when they throw another violent fit, they will be very likely to reach the "find out" phase.
Of course they are white, so it won't be as hard on them as it could be, but picking a fight with an army has its consequences, even for the whitest and male-est among us.
-Doug in Sugar Pine
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