Russia Rushing Toward Collapse (w/ Update)

Holy shit things are moving fast. 

Last night, the head of the mercenary Wagner group turned against the Russian military they were working with in Ukraine, seizing a key command HQ and twisting the knife into Putin's corrupt rule. The early hours of the turning created a lot of chaos, as Adam L Silverman the Intel expert at Balloon Juice tried to make sense of the early reports, conflicting stories, possible staged grievances, and other picture postcards:

As  I write this Prigozhin, supposedly leading Wagner, has announced that he’s moving on Moscow to deal with Minister of Defense Shoigu and the senior military staff/leadership who have failed Russia, the Russian people, and Vladimir Putin with both how they’ve prosecuted the reinvasion of Ukraine and how they’ve misled Putin. Not a coup, just a long overdue violent annual performance eval. In response the Fortress Plan – the security crisis action plan for municipal defense – has been activated for Rostov on Don and for Moscow. And the FSB, the Russian successor to the Soviet KGB, has either opened a criminal case or actually charged Prigozhin for violating the laws regarding not disparaging the military during the Special Military Operation and/or calling for armed rebellion. I’ve also seen reports that the St. Petersburg Police and/or Russian Special Forces have raided Wagner’s St. Petersburg offices.

Silverman adds among the Twitter feeds he's relying on for commentary that:

Other than videos and some audio released on social media THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO EVIDENCE THAT THE RUSSIAN MOD BOMBARDED A WAGNER REAR BASE OR THAT WAGNER, LED BY PRIGOZHIN IS MOVING OUT OF THE DONBAS, THROUGH RUSSIA, AND TOWARDS MOSCOW!!!!!

(This is presented in the BOLD CAPS LOCK mode that he's working with)

In Silverman's opinion, if Prigozhin was triggered by something it wasn't any kind of attack. Personally, my money is on the likelihood that the Russian military wanted to take direct control of the Wagner units to counter-attack Ukraine's counter-attack currently underway, and Prigozhin didn't want to deal with their sorry asses anymore (Update: I was kind of right. Prigozhin was refusing to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense that would have taken away his control over his private army).

Silverman then spools together a Twitter thread by Tatiana Stanovaya, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, which I'll copy here:

Here are a few insights into the situation surrounding Prigozhin:

1️⃣ For a long time, Prigozhin has been out of direct contact with Putin, yet he’s believed he was acting in Putin’s interests “by default”. His significant contributions in the war enhanced his sense of exclusivity and privilege.

2️⃣ The President’s administration maintained the stance that unless explicitly directed, it wasn’t feasible to openly confront Prigozhin, despite a strong inclination to do so. In fact, they had even convinced themselves of his usefulness.

3️⃣ As I’ve previously stated, the atrocities of war can drive people to the brink of sanity. Even the most loyal players, who are dependent on the Kremlin (which doesn’t imply complete manageability), can lose their sense of proportion. This is especially true when there appears to be no response to the continual attempts to escalate the situation.

4️⃣ Now that the state has actively engaged, there’s no turning back. The termination of Prigozhin and Wagner is imminent. The only possibility now is absolute obliteration, with the degree of resistance from the Wagner group being the only variable. Surovikin was dispatched to convince them to surrender. Confrontation seems totally futile.

5️⃣ The impending end of Wagner has satisfied many in power. He had become excessively anti-state, which is intolerable during a war. However, a significant number of those outside of power now lament the loss of a character like Prigozhin, who had begun to appeal due to his daring and audacity. Consequently, political repercussions are expected.

A crucial point to note is that many within the elite will now personally fault Putin for letting the situation escalate to such extremes and for his lack of a timely, adequate response when to many it was evident that Prigozhin was pushing the limits of Kremlin’s tolerance. Therefore, this entire saga is also an undercut to Putin’s standing...

Even if Putin puts down Prigozhin's betrayal/coup attempt, this weakens Putin's own standing. He'll also be eliminating one of the few effective fighting forces he has in Ukraine, as the Wagner mercs will either flee or refuse to fight under the command of Russian generals they know are corrupt and inept.

The flip-side of that - as I was waking up to this morning as Prigozhin's attempt is still ongoing - is if Wagner succeeds in overthrowing the Russian military command or even Putin himself, utter chaos reigns. A demoralized army - already broken by a meat-grinder war in Ukraine - will have no idea who's truly in charge. Unless Prigozhin is primed and able to assume full command - and show any tactical and strategical skill needed to maneuver a large-scale military offensive - he's simply going to take over a bad job and make it worse for Russia.

The political implications of this coup are enormous. As long as Putin is in charge of anything, Prigozhin won't be able to dictate terms to the government (the "legislature" and "courts" however legitimate they are). There's also the reality of the oligarchs allied to Putin, and determining which way they'll jump (which will always be to favor their own pockets).

When I woke this morning, this was the current reporting from the international newswire Reuters: TANKS - okay, maybe just one so far - ARE ROLLING ONTO MOSCOW.

ROSTOV-ON-DON/VORONEZH, Russia, June 24 (Reuters) - Russian military helicopters opened fire on Saturday afternoon on a convoy of rebel mercenaries already more than half way towards Moscow in a lightning advance after seizing a southern city overnight.

President Vladimir Putin vowed to crush an armed mutiny he compared to Russia's Civil War a century ago.

Fighters from Yevgeny Prigozhin's private Wagner militia were in control of Rostov-on-Don, a city of more than a million people close to the border with Ukraine, and were rapidly advancing northwards through western Russia...

Prigozhin, whose private army fought the bloodiest battles in Ukraine even as he feuded for months with the top brass, said he had captured the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District in Rostov after leading his forces into Russia from Ukraine.

In Rostov, which serves as the main rear logistical hub for Russia's entire invasion force, residents milled about, filming on mobile phones, as Wagner fighters in armoured vehicles and battle tanks took up positions.

One tank was wedged between stucco buildings with posters advertising the circus. Another had "Siberia" daubed in red paint across the front, a clear statement of intent to sweep across the breadth of Russia.

In Moscow, there was an increased security presence on the streets. Red Square was blocked off by metal barriers.

"Excessive ambitions and vested interests have led to treason," Putin said in a televised address, comparing the insurrection at a time of war abroad to Russia's revolution and civil war unleashed during World War One.

"All those who deliberately stepped on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed insurrection, who took the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, will answer both to the law and to our people."

Putin's saying this while on Twitter - instant news whether you want it or not - the observers are chortling "Moscow in 3" (either hours or days, they haven't agreed on which) as an ironic echo to Putin's 2022 decree of taking Kyiv in 3 days.

Kiev in 3 days has become Moscow in 3 days.

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) June 24, 2023

This is all still chaos. Meanwhile in Ukraine, the fighting hasn't stopped. Russian troops are still holding their defensive positions in the Donbas and southeastern half of that country. Unless Putin decides he needs his troops back in Russia to stay in power, or if Prigozhin takes control and orders them back to consolidate himself, this war isn't going to be over anytime soon.

But if Putin does indeed fall from power, this seriously changes everything. He has tied himself into so many elements of Russia - the political corruption and the economic corruption and the religious corruption and the cultural corruption - that there is no idea what could rise up to fill that void.

Putin's dream of empire is still a nightmare for the rest of us, even as it crashes down around him.

Update: Not more than six hours after I blogged this, there's a tentative peace deal between Putin and Prigozhin. Via Reuters:

Heavily armed Russian mercenaries who advanced most of the way to Moscow began turning back on Saturday, de-escalating a major challenge to President Vladimir Putin's grip on power, in a move their leader said would avoid bloodshed.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former Putin ally and founder of the Wagner army, said his men reached within 125 miles (200 km) of the capital. Earlier, Moscow deployed soldiers in preparation for their arrival and told residents to avoid going out.

The Wagner fighters captured the city of Rostov hundreds of miles to the south before racing in convoy through the country, transporting tanks and armoured trucks and smashing through barricades set up to stop them, video showed...

The office of Alexander Lukashenko said the decision to halt further movement of Wagner fighters was brokered by the Belarusian president, with Putin's approval, in return for guarantees for their safety.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Prigozhin himself will move to Belarus under the deal. Peskov said Lukashenko had offered to mediate because he had known the mercenary leader personally for around 20 years...

To have Putin's puppet regime in Belarus broker this deal is merely one part of the overall humiliation brought to Putin's table. Throughout this crisis, Russia's own military failed to respond in full against a "turncoat" private army, highlighting the low morale and poor discipline plaguing the regular forces. Prigozhin made faster advancements marching into Russia within 24 hours where it took him and his Wagner brigades over three months to achieve anything at Bakhmut.

Despite all the assurances between the two sides ("We ARE struggling together!"), how can there be any trust now between Prigozhin and Putin? Prigo's gonna have to watch every drink handed to him and sleep with one eye open and avoid tall buildings for however long Putin's on this Earth. Putin is going to have to deal with the consequences of a failing military that may still mutiny themselves if he cracks down too harshly on them for this failure, and worry that Prigozhin's popularity with a Russian population that worships basic competence can still undermine him.

It should be noted that making any kind of deal like this is a mug's game. A deal with a Russian is no deal at all. The question is, which Russian is going to break it first?