Indictment Day In Miami, Again the Question: Will There Be Violence?

Back in March, when the New York Manhattan's District Attorney's Office was set to indict donald trump at the state level, I wrote Will There Be Violence? as trump was signaling to his MAGA followers to show up at the courthouse to start a ruckus.

It was clear trump wanted the same disruption as he had gotten on January 6th, but with better results (reminder about the adage "insanity is repeating the same mistake and expecting different results"). 

When those indictments came, the protest turnout was by all accounts meager: There were more reporters than Proud Boys. No violence took place, no officers of the court were intimidated, and people went back in line to wait for the new Super Mario movie at the cinemas.

Today, there's a new indictment drama playing out, this time in Miami FL, with higher stakes as trump is facing federal indictments on major felonies like Obstruction and Espionage.

trump and his MAGA allies spent the weekend since last Thursday's reveal making the same noises made back in March, calling on protestors to show up in big numbers and with the implied threats that violence will happen. So again, we're playing a repeat: Will there be violence from trump's Far Right base?

It would be nice to say "It'll be as quiet as Manhattan," except there are different factors at play for Miami.

Above all, there's a stronger, more organized conservative (and pro-trump) faction in South Florida, due to the high number of anti-Castro Cuban-Americans who view anything to the left of Ronald Reagan as Communism.

There's the history: Miami is where the Brooks Brothers Riot took place in 2000, successfully disrupting the recount efforts in Dade County to where it virtually guaranteed Bush the Lesser would win the contested state. Even though that riot - of Far Right men in business suits led by Roger Stone - clearly interfered with election officials in violation of federal and state laws, no one was ever held accountable for that, and so there's that baseline of thinking "we can get away with this."

Also remember the mad pipe bomber of 2018? Turned out to be a South Florida trumpian supporter with anger management issues. And across much of Florida itself (oh Gods, trust me on this), you'll have hundreds of angry MAGA guys (and gals) just like him.

To counter-argue, there's the fact that - just like the swift indictment announcement in New York - there hasn't been a lot of time to plan and organize for the MAGA protestors to get an idea of how they'll react once they get to the Miami courthouse. On the flip side of that, ever since January 6th local and federal law enforcement are taking the threats of MAGA violence more serious and are likely to ramp up security around downtown Miami to prevent another riot (it helps that trump and his handlers are in no position to interfere with security like they did ahead of January 6).

There's also the paranoia among the MAGA faithful that this will be a trap. trump promised them a revolution on January 6, but instead the Far Right witnessed Congress still approving Biden's election while half of the MAGA protestors ended up in jail (with trump failing to mass-pardon the insurrectionists as they had hoped). There are individuals on social media and reportedly in the Dark Web making open calls to violence, but the overall sense is that in-person rioting is too high risk.

I am wary of the overall situation. I had hoped the January 6 situation wouldn't erupt into violence, and yet it did. I have lived most of my life in Florida and I can get a certain understanding of the goddamned wingnuts who surround me. This is a state on mental edge, dominated by elected Republican leaders who fearmonger at the citizenry daily and with constant displays of Florida Man forms of violence.

I doubt there will be an organized or planned riot, but a chaotic one will be just as dangerous. If trump protestors do show up, they will likely be constrained by a more prepared police/federal presence. But the spillage from contained spaces into the streets of downtown Miami itself will increase the likelihood of assaults towards innocent passers-by or local workers/residents caught in the storm.

If you have no business being in downtown Miami today, DON'T GO. There are perfectly good beaches to visit instead. If you have business in downtown Miami today, call in sick and enjoy the beaches. If you can't avoid being in downtown Miami, stay safe, move in numbers, and keep your heads down.

Crazy Tuesday today.