The Tick Tock of a Justice Clock

So with donald trump now convicted on 34 felonies, what happens next?

The simplest answer is that the legal system in New York moves forward on the punishment phase (via Michael R. Sisak, Jill Colvin, Michelle L. Price, and Alanna Durkin Richer at AP News):

The big question now is whether Trump could go to prison. The answer is uncertain. Judge Juan M. Merchan set sentencing for July 11, just days before Republicans are formally set to nominate Trump for president.

The charge of falsifying business records is a Class E felony in New York, the lowest tier of felony charges in the state. It is punishable by up to four years in prison, though the punishment would ultimately be up to the judge, and there’s no guarantee he would give Trump time behind bars. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg declined to say whether prosecutors would seek prison time.

It’s unclear to what extent the judge may factor in the political and logistical complexities of jailing a former president who is running to reclaim the White House. Other punishments could include a fine or probation. And it’s possible the judge would allow Trump to avoid serving any punishment until after he exhausts his appeals...

If there's any factor that should determine if trump faces time in jail is his own behavior before, during, and after the trial. The level of contempt trump displayed throughout led to Judge Merchan leveling fines and threatening him with sitting in a jail cell. Considering how trump continues to attack the entire proceeding as a rigged witch hunt, letting trump off with simple fines or probation would be a joke. While maxxing out the jail time to four years (48 months) would seem excessive for - believe it or not - a first-time felon like trump, settling on a set of months to make it hurt for him - say, 34 months one for each Guilty count - would be IMHO a fair punishment.

trump - and his MAGA voting base - of course would freak out. But we kinda knew that going in.

The ramifications of the guilty verdict are still roiling the political arena:

The conviction doesn’t bar Trump from continuing his campaign or becoming president. And he can still vote for himself in his home state of Florida as long as he stays out of prison in New York state.

Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump, who serves as co-chair of the Republican National Committee, said in a Fox News Channel interview on Thursday that Trump would do virtual rallies and campaign events if he’s convicted and sentenced to home confinement.

In a deeply divided America, it’s unclear whether Trump’s once-unimaginable criminal conviction will have any impact at all on the election...

In the short term, at least, there were immediate signs that the guilty verdict was helping to unify the Republican Party’s disparate factions as GOP officials across the political spectrum rallied behind their embattled presumptive presidential nominee and his campaign reported a flood of fundraising dollars within hours of the verdict.

There has been some polling conducted on the prospect of a guilty verdict, although such hypothetical scenarios are notoriously difficult to predict. A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll found that only 4% of Trump’s supporters said they would withdraw their backing if he’s convicted of a felony, though another 16% said they would reconsider it...

What would help, if pollsters interviewed Democratic-leaning voters to see how many will vote for Biden to ensure a convicted felon never gets (back) into the White House. /headdesk

We are entering uncharted waters in our nation's history. While we've had convicted felons run for the presidency - Eugene Debs the most well-known - we've never had one at the head of a major party with a guaranteed voter turnout in the millions. When the Founders created the Constitution, they never dreamed that the political elites of that era would allow such a person to run: Their own virtues of personal honor and good faith towards the system blinded them to the possibility a demagogue like trump would ever rise up to break all social norms and civility.

When the political parties formed (and reformed) in the years following, those parties were expected to use a vetting system of nominating only the best - or least corrupt - among them. But trump has subverted all that, bullying and dominating the Republican ranks to where he literally owns the national organization overseeing the party. Whatever is left of the GOP leadership is stuck with kissing trump's ring orange ass to stay in his good graces, turning a blind eye to trump's criminality and going along with trump's twisted accusations of a "rigged" trial.

Whatever issues are still up for debate - protecting abortion rights, stopping the bloodshed in Gaza, supporting Ukraine against Russia, defending our educational system, resolving the immigration crisis - this is a serious matter to consider: We now have a convicted felon as the presidential nominee for the Republican Party, with no sign trump will step aside or get pushed aside for a more honorable candidate. There is no "both sides are bad" argument here. For all of the Republican Party's efforts to paint President Biden as a corrupt figure, they've never found any evidence of that: The best they've done is bring charges to his son Hunter, but never found any financial ties between them.

This is now down to two Presidential candidates. trump is a convicted felon with an established history of criminal behavior - trump's company criminally guilty, trump found liable for sexual assault, trump found liable for tax evasion and fraud to the tune of $364 million, trump's non-profit forced to shut down for fraud - proven in court. Biden is not a felon.

This ought to be an easy choice, America. Don't fucking vote for the felon.