trump's not even in the White House (again) and he's already causing our diplomatic corps and foreign policy experts to reach for the nearest bottles of Jack Daniels with his social media announcements raging against our neighboring nations and long-standing allies.
trump's fauxrage towards Mexico remains ongoing, left over from all of his "we're gonna build a wall to keep out the rapists and drug gangs" grandstanding during his first tenure. Since this November, trump openly plans to issue painful tariffs - painful for the United States, not Mexico - on our southern neighbors as retaliation for what he claims is an "ongoing invasion" of America. Mixed in with that are more unsettling threats to order U.S. military strikes on drug cartel locations across Mexico, violating their sovereignty and likely killing a high number of civilians. The kind of acts that lead to open wars.
Toss into this mix how trump repeatedly "jokes" about annexing Canada but does so as part of his ongoing - and spreading - obsession with raising tariffs on our major trade partners. It doesn't help that a number of Far Right pundits and MAGA followers fantasize about invading Canada (much like the War Hawks of 1812).
Now in the news, trump is making demands - threats - towards Panama regarding control of the canal, a vital shipping route between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Coverage from the recent Turning Point USA conference has trump beating the war drums to "take back" control of the region (via Julio Ricardo Varela at MSNBC):
President-elect Donald Trump blurted out another outrageous promise at a Turning Point USA event Sunday in Phoenix: He now wants the Panama Canal back. Trump claimed that Panama’s shipping fees were “ridiculous” and threatened to demand the canal’s return if these fees aren't reduced.
“I can proudly proclaim that the Golden Age of America is upon us,” Trump said. “There’s a spirit that we have now that we didn’t have just a short while ago.”
Trump’s invocation of a “Golden Age” will always excite his supporters, who thrill at his call to “Make America Great Again.” But for much of Latin America, the era that slogan harks back to was defined by U.S. imperialism and exploitation. Panama knows this history better than most, having endured decades of American control over a canal that defines not just the country’s economy but its very identity.
Trump’s notion to take back the canal is not just inflammatory. It risks reigniting tensions between the U.S. and many Latin American countries, after those countries have worked hard to move past fears about American intrusions on their sovereignty. Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino swiftly rebuked Trump, stating, “Every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjoining zone is Panama’s and will remain so. The sovereignty and independence of our country is non-negotiable.”
If trump even hopes to build any foreign relations successes, he's burning bridges before he can cross them. /headdesk
And for the love of God, trump is making noises - again - about wanting to buy - or worse, seize - Greenland away from Denmark, a nation not in the mood to make any deals now or ever.
Just how many nations does trump want to anger / alienate / piss off before Inauguration Day?
If there is a simple or well-meaning reason for all of this, trump's behaviors and statements are all part of the blustering and bullying he inflicts on everybody when he thinks he's "negotiating" his deals. This is his game plan:
- Blow up any existing deal to cause chaos,
- Bully everyone he has to make deals with,
- Force them - or wear them down - to accept deals that pretty much were the same as before except trump himself gets a bigger piece of the action,
- Claim he's the greatest deal-maker of all time.
I honestly don't believe any of that ever worked in his - or America's - favor every time he tried bullying his way to deals as President. trump did all of this when he blew up NAFTA to force Canada and Mexico into negotiating a new trade deal... that pretty much was the same deal but with stricter labor provisions that Democrats in Congress pushed through in 2019. trump's administration had a rougher go of it throughout their foreign policy efforts, because trump was not able to bully other nations into giving up more to him. One of the few foreign policy deals trump did accomplish... was signing a peace deal with the Afghani Taliban that gave them everything they wanted - prisoners freed, and the opportunity to take over Afghanistan within a year - while trump left Biden holding the blame.
For all the talk about military strikes into Mexico and "territorial expansion" as part of trump's agenda for 2025, he had talked like that before and never really followed through. trump DID expand a bombing / drone strikes campaign across the Middle East - especially an attack on an Iranian military leader while he was visiting Iraq - and at one point openly discussed missile strikes and possible invasion of Iran itself, but when push came to shove trump did not engage in direct warfare or military action against the nations he kept threatening. Hell, he turned into North Korea's best buddy when Kim Jong Il sent trump love letters.
However...
Back in trump's first term, trump had to rely on established political and military leaders within the government - his Joint Chiefs, his national security advisors, and foreign policy Cabinet figures - who counseled towards caution and who kept talking trump out of his more violent proposals. Going into his second term, trump is not relying on any of those people and is tapping some of the more... volatile talking heads on Fox Not-News who are less inclined to urge caution (and more inclined to sadistic punishment of others).
One of the things trump and his team remain focused on is a mass deportation plan to round up, imprison, and exile millions of "undocumented" Latinos (and Asians, Africans, and anybody else not-White) with the likelihood of just yeeting all those millions across the Mexican border in violation of the Constitution, international human rights treaties, and basic human decency.
It also runs into a wall of logistical headaches, as that deportation plan requires more manpower, facilities, and resources than our immigration services - and even local law enforcement - can provide. Which is why trump is all too eager to deploy the U.S. military to cover those logistical issues, even though the armed forces are not designed - or required by law - to perform those actions.
The only way trump can get around those legal constraints would be to invoke a national emergency - this is where his alarmist rhetoric of "invasion by illegals" comes into play - and what better way than to use executive powers to declare us in a state of war with the nations - Mexico and most of Central and South America - where most undocumented workers come from? Not only would that allow trump and his cohorts to federalize the National Guards - even the ones from Democratic states - but it would also serve as a big stick to threaten Mexico into either giving into trump's demands to accept the mass deportations or risk U.S. invasion to force them to.
Thing is, Mexico is going to do whatever is in their best interests, not trump's. Even submitting to trump's will in this matter for the short term would be a strain on Mexico's own resources and capabilities, not without financial concessions that trump and his wingnut allies will likely refuse to give. Even the risk and costs of war with a global superpower might prove a more palatable outcome for Mexicans...
...as well as the rest of Central and South America whose populations will be greatly affected by trump's deportation plan and who may well ally with Mexico, giving them the political - and military - support they would need.
As much as American arrogance will convince us that we're the world's greatest military, our own recent attempts at war - the invasions and occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq - demonstrated our own abilities have their limits. Much like I noted before about the costs and hazards of a potential invasion of Iran, any war against Mexico has its own risks.
We won't have the advantages of distance: This would be a straight-on border clash along a wide border that Mexico can exploit as much as the U.S. can. We won't have any advantages of allies: trump's overt belligerence and open inhumanity towards migrants would alienate every potential support even if he tries to insist on help from NATO or other treaty groups. Canada - and much of the UK Commonwealth across the Caribbean - would likely ally with Mexico, which is where the American wingnut threats to "annex Canada" would come back to bite America in the ass.
This may all be alarmist and unnecessary. Again, trump proved before he is more bluster than action. The problem is that this time, trump is more determined than ever to resolve his fixation - his rage and racist hatred - on an immigration "problem" he swore to end.
If "fixing it" requires going to war, trump will go there.
And Gods help us - not just Mexico, maybe not just Canada and/or Panama - all if he does.
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