Wednesday, August 24, 2022

Ukraine's Independence Day

Officially, August 24 is Independence Day in Ukraine

Ukrainians are celebrating it by fighting off an unjust invasion by Putin's Russia.

It's been six months since Putin sent in a blitz at Kyiv to try and force that nation into submission, only to be left reeling when Zelenskyy proved he and his fellow Ukrainians were willing to punch back. Ever since then, the war has turned into a slog with Ukrainians trying to retake their eastern part of the nation while Russia is trying to kidnap more Ukrainians to turn them into slave labor or worse.

There's been a few months since the last time I blogged about Ukraine, the biggest news above all is the increase in artillery firepower that they've been using to attack Russian bases in Crimea, a likely move to help retake Kershon and hamper Russia's ability to threaten Odesa.

Don't take my word for it: Hopefully you're following Adam L. Silverman at Balloon Juice who's been doing a lot of daily updates on the war. He relies on some of the intel he gets at his job, but also shares a lot with official assessments from the UK Defense and several other groups focused on the region. His most current update is about today's Independence Day, but let me share some of his thoughts from an earlier posting he wrote:

As we hoped, the Ukrainians rose to the occasion. The defenses of Kyiv held, which prevented Putin from being able to seize the city, replace Ukraine’s leadership with his quislings, and fulfill the pseudo-historical destiny that Putin has concocted for himself and Russia. For the past six months, night and day, Ukraine has stood in the breach and held. It hasn’t been easy. It hasn’t been pretty or pleasant. But right now Ukraine is the frontline in the defense of liberal democracy, self determination, self government, and liberty against those, like Putin, who would remake not just the international system, but all states and societies, into managed, illiberal sham democracies pitted against each other in a perpetual struggle of all against all.

We all owe Ukraine and the Ukrainians a debt of gratitude for not flinching in this grim duty that has been forced upon them. The Ukrainians heroic defense epitomizes Lincoln’s dedication of the cemetery at Gettysburg...

We are witnessing the only just war any of us will ever see in our lifetimes. We are watching everything that American leaders have pontificated about as our national ideals be defended by a state and a society that six months ago was still a transitional democracy with all the flaws and blemishes that result from that hard transition.

A great miracle is happening there...

From all we're hearing, Russia is running lower on armored vehicles and other supplies. Their manpower has dwindled by significant numbers, and yet Putin can't risk (yet) any kind of conscription/draft to replenish his cannon fodder.

And summer is going to give way to winter, in that part of the world it comes pretty quick. Previous eras, Russia relied a lot on "General Winter" to stave off invasion and defeat, but this time around the weather favors Ukraine on the defensive. The only thing Putin can hope for now is that Western Europe - which still relies too much on Russian gas and oil - will suffer from the coming winter and choke off their support of Ukraine's efforts.

But NATO is making it clear they are supporting Ukraine as much as international policy allows. Efforts by Finland and Sweden to join NATO before Putin can fck them over are gathering votes and getting closer to completion, especially as the US Senate overwhelmingly voted for their inclusion.

This war will not end anytime soon, let us be honest about that. It won't end until Putin and his Russian underlings fall from power. The warmongering begins and ends with them.

So we need to keep praying for Ukraine to endure, our leaders and governments need to keep supporting Ukraine with money and weapons.

There's a motto: Slava Ukraini. It means "Glory to Ukrainians!"

Also: Russia, go fuck yourself.


1 comment:

dinthebeast said...

Time was, no matter how beastly the premier of the USSR might be, he was moored closely enough to reality to avoid starting world war three, mutually assured destruction, I believe was the doctrine.
Now, with reality seen as optional, Putin is trying his ass off to get something bigger started, indulging his narcissistic ego with provocative acts just daring NATO and the West to engage with his version of the Red Army, which we now know to be a meager remnant of that storied force.
He would be wise to be careful what he asks for. Mutually Assured Destruction is still very much a live issue, and as for sustaining a foreign war, that was the chief weakness of his USSR: even in the eighties, they didn't have the kind of resources to run a "forever war" in Afghanistan.
He thinks that we didn't, either, and so our own resources must be at a low ebb since we left, but reality again: our economy is many times the size of Russia's, and those wars we fought didn't really impact it that much. Russia has an economy roughly the size of Spain, and even so relies on fossil fuel exports for most of its trade surplus. Now that it can't import the manufactured goods and tech products it needs, it is cannibalizing airliners for spare parts.
No-one knows for sure what could dislodge Putin from his seat at the top of Russia's government, but the willful impoverishment of the Russian people over a narcissistic fit has as good of a chance as anything, as far as I can tell.

-Doug in Sugar Pine