Ides of March 2022

It's March 15th. You know what THAT means!

TOGA! TOGA! TOGA!

 Wait. Wrong toga party.

Well, okay, now you know how to show up for the party...

Dammit, all that blood just ruins the bedsheets.

Republican Cruelty Still Ongoing March 2022 Edition

Just your constant reminder that Republicans are assholes and want everybody else in America to suffer.

The Florida legislature passed that "Don't Say Gay" bill, which would effectively muzzle any discussion of gender identities (yes, even hetero stuff, that's how vaguely worded this mess is) and encourage the spread of bullying and harassment of kids and teachers for any perceived Other-ness. Now it's up to DeSantis to sign it, and that SOB is eyeing his Presidential chances in 2024 knowing this pandering to the GOP voter base is how he can win them over. Damn him for the damage he's about to inflict on our school kids.

The Republican-controlled states are rushing to pass harsher anti-abortion laws, getting ready for the expected announcement from the 6-vote Far Right majority of the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v Wade. Among these new bills is one from Missouri that would punish any woman who leaves the state to get an abortion as well as anybody who helps them. Worse, that bill would ban any abortion of an ectopic pregnancy that can be lethal to the woman enduring it.

Let's take a moment to talk about what an ectopic pregnancy is (via the Mayo Clinic): 

Pregnancy begins with a fertilized egg. Normally, the fertilized egg attaches to the lining of the uterus. An ectopic pregnancy occurs when a fertilized egg implants and grows outside the main cavity of the uterus.

An ectopic pregnancy most often occurs in a fallopian tube, which carries eggs from the ovaries to the uterus. This type of ectopic pregnancy is called a tubal pregnancy. Sometimes, an ectopic pregnancy occurs in other areas of the body, such as the ovary, abdominal cavity or the lower part of the uterus (cervix), which connects to the vagina.

An ectopic pregnancy can't proceed normally. The fertilized egg can't survive, and the growing tissue may cause life-threatening bleeding, if left untreated...

Anybody with a passing knowledge of human anatomy - or at least access to an anatomy book at the library - can tell you that a fetus growing in a fallopian tube will rupture that tube. That's massive internal bleeding. The fetus itself won't last long. The fatality rate of U.S. women suffering ectopic pregnancies is around 10 percent, and it's the leading cause of first trimester fatalities.

The guy in Missouri - Brian Seitz - pushing this bill is claiming that an ectopic fetus can get surgically replanted into the uterus, but guess what? He's lying. They tried selling this lie in Ohio when that state passed a similar law, and the doctors still had to explain to them that it's medically impossible.

And yet these Far Right, religiously-pandering, painfully ill-informed if not outright moronic politicians don't care about any of that. All they care about is banning abortion under ANY circumstance, which is why they laugh away rape and incest as a reason for women to need abortion, it's why they ignore the medical reality that pregnancies are high-risk for women in even the most advanced nations on Earth (and the U.S. isn't one of those nations in the first place).

So if a woman in Missouri gets pregnant, and it turns out to be ectopic, growing in her fallopian tube, and the only way to survive is to get an abortion, she can't get it in Missouri. Worse, she can't even leave the state to go to one - Illinois I think would still be pro-abortion in a post-Roe America - because the goddamned wingnuts will arrest her for trying to save her own life.

We saw similar "Can't Leave" laws pass in Georgia and other states a while back, and I think the latest situation about those laws is that they're pending SCOTUS decisions, which again does not bode well.

As I wrote back then, these anti-abortion bills are a replay of the Fugitive Slave Acts, only now geared to punish poor women who can't afford to leave their states to end life-threatening pregnancies. It is horrifying how far these religious assholes want to go to punish women, to the point they are happily agreeing to commit mass murder in the glory of fetuses that won't survive anyway. It's madness, and too many women are going to die because of it.

Rounding out this weekend of Far Right madness is this little gem from one of my state's Senators, Mr. Rick "Medicare Fraud" Scott who came out last month with an 11-point plan to take the United States back to 1950 1850 The Stone Age. This counts out to more than 11 items, but I broke up some of Scott's rants into separate talking points to highlight each idiocy:

• It would force schools to not teach about racism or sexism or gender identity or any such "wokeness". It would force universities to stop diversifying their student populations, ending "affirmative action" of any kind.
• It would end "wokeness" or diversity training in the U.S. military, pretty much making life harder for women and gays in the military.
• It would increase prison minimums for both violent and non-violent crimes, and guarantee Qualified Immunity to let police abuse the use of force. All legal reforms to reduce our oversized prison population and any attempt to reduce police brutality, wiped away.
• It will finish donald trump's goddamned Wall that nobody else wanted.
• It will give Presidents a line-item veto on Congressional bills, which honestly requires a Constitutional Amendment that Scott or the Republicans won't be able to push through (because it will honestly break Congress' power and even they are not that suicidal). I also doubt Republicans will want that line-item veto in Democratic Presidents' hands.
• It will impose term limits on Congress (also unconstitutional, and would require an Amendment).
• It will weaken the Internal Revenue Service by cutting staffing in half, and pursue the idea of decentralizing the federal bureaucracy by shipping whole departments out of DC. They tried that with various Agriculture agencies and it turned into an expensive, staff-wasting mess.
• It will promote voter suppression even into Blue States by ending same-day registrations, cutting back on mail-in balloting, and enforcing stricter Voter ID laws everywhere.
• It will ban porn (good luck with that, you busybody idiots).
• It will give religious institutions more power to discriminate, violating everyone else's civil liberties just so Republicans can lie to themselves about us being a Godly nation.
• It will go after private social media companies who "violate" free speech by banning the racist Republicans who violate those companies' own rules.
• It will insist that ALL Americans pay income taxes, even those who are too poor to afford paying federal income tax (and who are already paying at the state and local levels through sales and property taxes). Scott's plan also calls on taxing people living on Social Security, who are fixed-income retirees or those too disabled to work for an income.
• It will end financial aid to foreign allies (just as we're coping with a Russian invasion of Ukraine and threatening our NATO allies!), cut off trade with China (the economic damage of that alone would drive Wall Street to go full Democrat), and "treat our enemies like enemies" (which sounds right now like pushing us into open war with Russia, oh no I'm sorry the Republicans think we're at war with Ukraine).

IMHO: A lot of this is just straight-up pandering on Culture War issues, all the while attacking the poor (and minorities) for "not paying their fair share" and pretty much announcing on loudspeakers that the Republicans hate everybody who isn't Rich White and Male.

To quote Jeffrey Billman at Orlando Weekly:

Most of it isn’t new, per se. What’s new is Scott’s attempt to marry the party’s anti-tax, pro-austerity wing with Trump’s populist, authoritarian wing. On the surface, that seems dubious. To the degree Trump had a policy outlook more sophisticated than “Build the Wall,” it was that he promised everything to everyone — cut taxes and increase spending and cut the deficit — and pretended he never made those promises when they became inconvenient. 

Scott, however, wants to reframe the oligarchical (read: deeply unpopular) aspects of the GOP agenda as an extension of the culture wars: The “woke” left is sending your money to “undeserving” others; you don’t have to squint to see the racial subtext. From start to finish, this is an authoritarian document dressed up in the language of freedom. Like all variants of right-wing populism, it focuses the grievances of its target demo (a loss of cultural primacy) at scapegoats (the wokes)...

To quote Rude Pundit:

There's so much conservative extremist fuckery in here that it reads like porn for the Federalist Society, like a bunch of Hillsdale grads are gonna sit around and circle jerk to things like finishing the stupid border wall and naming it for Donald Trump. "Yeah, that'll own the libs," they'll say as they jizz and then immediately feel shame and then immediately start jacking off again when they read the next line about funding the police.

Look at this savagery in attacking the poor: "No government assistance unless you are disabled or aggressively seeking work" (okay, so are you gonna provide child care?) and "Eliminate federal programs that can be done locally" (sounds good if you're in Massachusetts, scary if you're in Texas) and "All Americans should pay some income tax to have skin in the game, even if a small amount" (which is raising taxes on the poor instead of forcing million/billionaires to pay their share). There's fucking nothing in there about poverty other than that "socialism" apparently causes it. Not paying shit wages or corporations dicking over workers in favor of shareholders and executives.

On it goes, just a steaming shit pile that you'd just have to be a sociopath, and a fucking dumb one, to buy into. In addition to essentially ending the federal government except for the military, the paranoia over "cancel culture" bullshit and the outright terror over trans people is bizarrely overwhelming. In a weird merging of "science" and religion, the plan declares "Men and women are biologically different, 'male and female He created them.'" And "No doctor will be allowed to perform irreversible surgical or gender-altering procedures on any minor child," going against the advice of every major medical organization when it comes to gender dysphoria (and it's something Texas is already on board with)...

This maniacal shitpost of a declaration is about a nation that simply doesn't exist except in the heated, phantasmagoric delusions of the most MAGA-broken brains and the political garbage humans who exploit them, no matter the consequences. It imagines a country in flames, repressing true Americans, one where the greatest issue facing us is white people not allowed to say the n-word without consequences. It's hyper-Christian, nationalistic, fascistic, and deranged, ignoring all the real problems in this nation, which, to be fair, are mostly caused by Republicans...

To quote myself: This is what the Republicans have been selling for the past 40 years, ever since the glory days of the Reagan Administration, and trying to pass it off as reforms and benefits to a nation that hasn't seen a steady healthy economy in all that time (the economic boom of the Clinton years did not fix income inequality and was all quickly squandered by Bush the Lesser's tenure anyway). This is all the Republican Party is anymore: A party selling grievance and rage to its voting base and pushing an agenda of cruelty that appeals to far too many angry white folk.

Everything I've wrote here tonight, every last inch of it documenting the cruelty that drives the modern GOP.

Adam Serwer's words should get engraved on top of every Republican officials' tombstones when they pass this mortal coil: THE CRUELTY IS THE POINT.

Putin As Failed Machiavellian

I know I take Machiavelli a little too serious when it comes to history and leadership evaluations.

I know this because his reputation post-Prince is a mixed bag at best. Bouncing between criticisms of immorality and glamorizing criminal behavior in politics, to either being a wry satire of other political polemics of its day and thus should not be taken literally, to being a bad influence on 20th Century dictators, and more recently a dated, unrealistic how-to manual to manage political high office.

However, I'm kind of with Erica Bremmer at The Guardian when it comes to understanding The Prince: a neutral reading of the work showed me how Machiavelli was trying to warn leaders about avoiding despotism that tends to leave their empires in ruins. As Bremmer notes:

Yet the more I read, the more I questioned this story. I started noticing that Machiavelli’s writings speak in different voices at different times. At one moment he seems to applaud men who break their oaths at will, caring little for just dealings. But he also says – in a passage most scholars pass over – that “victories are never secure without some respect, especially for justice”. For every cynical Machiavellian precept, I found two or three others that clashed with it...

Where suggestions in The Prince would justify some underhanded tactic like bribery, or use of force, Machiavelli would then also offer warnings, reminders that the powers-that-be need to temper their actions lest they cross a line with their citizenry that can't be undone.

One of the Prince's most famous philosophical debates is the question: Is it better to be Loved or Feared? Machiavelli noted that being both Loved and Feared is the best possible state, but difficult to achieve. Being Loved is good but relies too much on mercy and leniency, and vulnerable to others who would abuse that Love for their own greed. 

The argument falls on Being Feared as the more manageable, but even then Machiavelli gives a great warning that leaders must avoid letting that Fear become Hate:

For a man may very well be Feared and yet not Hated, and this will be the case so long as he does not meddle with the property or with the women of his citizens and subjects. And if constrained to put any to death, he should do so only when there is manifest cause or reasonable justification... a wise Prince should build on what is his own, and not on what rests with others. Only, as I have said, he must do his utmost to escape hatred...

A later chapter goes into a little more detail:

A Prince, as I have said before, sooner becomes hated by being rapacious and by interfering with the property and with the women of his subjects, than in any other way. From these, therefore, he should abstain. For so long as neither their property nor their honour is touched, the mass of mankind live contentedly, and the Prince has only to cope with the ambition of a few, which can in many ways and easily be kept within bounds...

Or as Guido the Killer Pimp once said (paraphrasing), Never ever fuck with another man's livelihood. In short, do not fuck with a person's employment or personal life. As long as you don't piss off too many people, you'll stay a Prince:

To be brief, a Prince has little to fear from conspiracies when his subjects are well disposed towards him; but when they are hostile and hold him in detestation, he has then reason to fear everything and every one. And well ordered States and wise Princes have provided with extreme care that the nobility shall not be driven to desperation, and that the commons shall be kept satisfied and contented; for this is one of the most important matters that a Prince has to look to...

It's not said directly in his work, but later political observers and philosophers interpreted from Machiavelli's warnings that the real answer is that the leader must seek Respect above all else. You can be Loved and Respected for your integrity, valor, courage, what have you, and stay in power: You can be Feared and Respected for your cunning, decisiveness, judicious application of force, what have you, and stay in power. As long as your soldiers/office workers/voters Respect you for getting the job done, you're solid and cool.

One reason why I keep referring back to Machiavelli: When I read my histories and witness the evils of war, bloodshed, and strife - and sometimes when I reviewed the Characters of our American Presidents using Professor Barber as a guide - I keep spotting where the political leaders responsible for a lot of the suffering tended to be the Machiavellian types seeking to rule by Fear but failing to retain - or even failing to gain in the first place - the Respect of those they sought to rule.

Good Presidents - at least the ones we admire and respect even decades after their deaths - are the ones who performed competently even in matters of, well, moral uncertainty. As long as most of your citizenry prosper and are left untouched by some of your questionable decisions, you should do well as a leader.

So how does all of this talk about Machiavelli involve Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin? The Prince of Russia, leader of one of the major global powers, backed by a massive mechanized army and a nuclear arsenal, overseeing a financial kleptocratic empire that has inspired fear and dread among other nations and his political enemies for over 20 years?

Because Putin, with regards to his invasion of Ukraine this past month, screwed up royally.

The entire endeavor - spurred on by Putin's gaslighting over Ukraine's very existence and by his desire to rebuild a greater Russian empire - exposed both Russia and Putin for levels of incompetence and brutality that eliminated any respect that outside observers had of them. The political leadership under Putin failed to properly plan for the early days of the invasion, relying on a military force that proved to be under-trained, under-supplied, and way under any level of morale. As a result of those miscues, Putin appears to be doubling down on committing enough atrocities towards Ukrainian civilians in order to weaken their defiance into enough fear to make them surrender.

But that's not going to happen because Ukrainians already hated Putin - and they hated the Russian arrogance that treated them as second-class citizens under Tsarist and then Communist rule - to where they will never surrender to him.

In this, Putin had already failed as a Machiavellian figure. Despite all these years of him committing enough crimes - the blatant fraud, the wars against Chechnya and Georgia, the undisguised assassinations and attempts on his exiled critics, the success of manipulating the rise of populist Far Right governments across the western democracies, seizing Crimea and Eastern Ukraine in a border clash when Ukrainians overthrew a corrupt pro-Putin regime - to generate fear of him as a Prince, in just two weeks of stiff Ukrainian resistance he has been exposed as an arrogant bully. More clueless and desperate for violent victory than the rest of the world had realized.

It's gotten to where Putin is no longer feared, but openly hated. And not just among Ukrainians (who have obvious reasons right now). 

Hatred for Putin is something getting suppressed in homeland Russia, but the resentments among Russians are building up now that the overt corruption is exposing the once-hidden incompetence. And in spite of martial law and stiff penalties issued against protesting, a lot of Russians are risking all of that out of hatred for Putin (via Rachel Treisman at NPR):

Thousands of people turned out in cities across Russia this weekend to protest the war in Ukraine, risking arrest in a country where such demonstrations are illegal. Many of them were detained and some subjected torture as a result, according to an independent Russian human rights group.

Police detained more than 4,640 protesters in 65 Russian cities on Sunday, according to the monitoring group OVD-Info. It says more than 13,000 Russians in 147 cities have been detained at anti-war rallies since Russia first invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24...

Those may not sound like big numbers in a Russia with around 130 million souls, but each of these protestors are representative of hundreds of others who dare not risk the arrests. For now.

Based on a lot of the military assessments getting leaked to the press, the analysts experienced in these matters are suggesting that the Russian invasion is due to fail soon to both catastrophic loss of supplies and collapse of troop morale. It's not 100 percent a given, but all signs do point to at worst a prolonged struggle that Putin's ongoing propaganda efforts back home can't cover up.

Francis Fukuyama once wrote at the end of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War a little thing called The End of History, which made him a media darling when it came to talking about Russia vs. The West. So when he pens an online essay about "Preparing For Defeat," there's a reason to pay attention:

Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks...

The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north...

Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?...

The lies selling this war are going to pile up to where even Putin's hardest supporters will doubt his word, and the setbacks can well get bloody to where enough Russian families are horrified by the loss of their loved ones to set blame on leader Putin who led them to such a fate. Any respect Putin relied on to rule - that reputation as a strongman - is already out the window (metaphor intended) across the world, and that will eventually reach the eyes and ears of most Russians.

It's not that Putin could have ever ruled through Love. It is that Putin did a decent enough job early on to rule through Fear by burnishing his power to be the biggest kleptocrat, and by silencing a number of critics and rivals through assassination and brutality to enforce his strongman image at home.

But Putin isn't a strongman anymore. He's just another struggling dictator starting unjust wars just like all the other failed monsters of history.

It's terrifying that Putin's failure is going to cost so many innocent lives.

American History Bends A Little More Towards Justice

It may be true that the law cannot make a man love me, but it can stop him from lynching me, and I think that's pretty important.

- Martin Luther King Jr. 

In what has literally been a century in the making, the United States Congress FINALLY passed an anti-lynching law that should help ensure some justice against the racism that haunts this nation. Via AP News:

Congress gave final approval Monday to legislation that for the first time would make lynching a federal hate crime in the U.S., sending the bill to President Joe Biden to sign into law.

Years in the making, the Emmett Till Anti-Lynching Act is among some 200 bills that have been introduced over the past century that have tried to ban lynching in America.

It is named for the Black teenager whose brutal killing in Mississippi in 1955 — and his mother’s insistence on a open funeral casket to show the world what had been done to her child — became a pivotal moment in the Civil Rights era.

“After more than 200 failed attempts to outlaw lynching, Congress is finally succeeding in taking a long overdue action by passing the Emmett Till Anti-Lynching Act,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer...

The House overwhelming approved a similar measure in 2020, but it was blocked in the Senate.

Last week, the House overwhelmingly approved a revised version and the Senate passed the bill unanimously late Monday...

I'm not sure what happened to end the endless filibustering that kicked up in the Senate every time an anti-lynching bill came to a vote. There had always been just enough Conservative types - from the Dixiecrats  of the early-mid 20th Century to the Far Right Republicans like Rand Paul during the last 40 years - to delay its passage long enough for the clock to run out each congressional term.

Thankfully this time, that stoppage didn't happen.

This law is coming after not just decades of Blacks suffering vigilante violence at the end of the rope but recent acts of straight-up racist murders from Trayvon Martin to Jordan Davis to George Floyd and most recently to Ahmaud Arbery. There are tens of other deaths of African-Americans at the hands of police or gun-toting assholes to list here.

In cases like Floyd and Arbery, the federal government did pursue hate crime charges, that the murderers responsible violated the civil rights of their victims, but it still seems not enough to ensure justice was served, that the racism driving those acts of violence were not truly exposed to the nation so we could understand just how severe a problem lynching continues to be.

The matter now - once President Biden signs the bill - is going to be a question of enforcement: How often will the federal government call on this law to investigate those victims whose deaths were conspiratorial acts of racism? There are a number of questionable Black deaths by hanging across the United States that the local police are dismissing as suicides that could now - I would hope - get investigated as possible lynchings.

We can only hope, as always. The fear and rage that drives racism runs deep in this nation, it's been a mindset haunting our collective psyche for generations: It will take a lot of work to fight racism until justice and equality can drive that rage and fear from our world.

There's also a lot of work to stop the goddamn racists from pushing their censoring "Let's never teach how bad racism is" bullshit in our public schools, but that would require a majority of American voters to stop voting for the goddamn Far Right Republicans to our county school boards and state legislatures.

We need to keep bending the United States towards justice.

Keeping Up With The Russian-Ukrainian War

Thing about war, as it's happening, is that there's too much going on to keep up with it.

Keeping up with news sources like NPR or AP News helps, and I follow those links when I can. It's been suggested to follow these sources to keep up with the minute-by-minute madness:

Kyiv Independent (Ukrainian newspaper)

Terrell J Starr (Twitter feed for Foreign Policy correspondent)

I'd also keep an eye on Adam L Silverman at Balloon Juice for his insights.

The other thing about war is, you want to do whatever you can to stop it. Even as one person you want to help the innocent caught in a war zone, overwhelming as the whole situation can be. (There IS one person who can stop any war, but it's the warmonger who started it and Putin does not look like he's willing to agree to that any time soon).

There's been chatter on social media, and I've even met one in person, with those who've trained and deployed in the U.S. military willing to hop onto a plane to fly over to Ukraine (or close enough) and offer their services. Thing is, that's not a smart idea: You're just adding one more person to a chaotic situation that will need to get clothed and fed and treated for wounds. You're better off - most of us are better off - staying where we are and offering help through other means.

The blog I read early and often - Balloon Juice - created a webpage of links where you can send in aid and make sure things like warm food get to the Ukrainians who need it most. 

World Central Kitchen (on the Ukraine border with Poland)

Leleka Foundation (US group that partners with Ukraine)

National Bank of Ukraine Fund for Ukraine Armed Forces

Tim Snyder: Ways to Help Ukrainians

Kyiv Independent List of How Foreigners Can Help

Carole  Cadwalladr: Ukraine Crisis Media Center

List Recommended by Gin & Tonic

List of Other Ways to Help Ukraine

People need help, always. And not just in Ukraine.

Syria has suffered a decade-long civil war with no end in sight and thousands of Syrians struggling as refugees. They'll need help too.

Afghanistan is struggling under Taliban rule again, and the population are facing famine and lack of resources across the board.

There are several other places in need of aid as well. The www.unhcr.org and rescue.org links should provide more information.

As for all the current news I've heard: Russia refuses to honor any ceasefire deals to help evacuate besieged cities, as their convoys driving into Ukraine are running into supply and logistics nightmares. There's been social media buzz that any day now the invasion force will run dry, but I'll believe it when that actually happens.

In the meantime, go fuck yourself Putin. #PutinIsAWarCriminal 

That One Moment When a Global Hero Tells a Florida Medicare Fraud to Shut Up

Noting this for historic context:

At one point during his emotional presentation, Zelenskyy paused to ask one of the American lawmakers to mute themselves.
“Senator Rick Scott, please mute your mic,” he said. https://t.co/ElfsEAtQ4y

— Alan Rappeport (@arappeport) March 5, 2022

Yes, please. SHUT THE FUCK UP, RICK "Medicare Fraud" SCOTT.

And let's not even get into the stupidity of Marco "Third Place" Rubio sharing pics of a conversation that showed in real-time Zelenskyy's location that Russian assassins could have exploited.

/headdesk

It's like Republicans are doing their best to be helping Putin without getting caught helping Putin, and failing miserably at it.

 

Where Will Putin's War Lead?

Serious question: What the hell is Putin's endgame?

We all know what he wants going into his invasion of Ukraine: Stop Ukraine from joining NATO and/or the EU, break the anti-Russian government leading Ukraine, install a pro-Russian (pro-Putin) regime to control Ukraine, rattle the rest of Europe - Poland, the Baltic states, even Finland and Sweden - into accepting Russia as a dominant power again, and expose NATO as a weak and ineffective alliance hopefully leading to its demise.

What he likely expected going in was an easy fight. Like all autocratic bullies, he viewed his victim Ukraine as a pushover. His opponent President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was an actor and comedian, a political lightweight. His puppet donald trump had disrupted as much military and financial support to Ukraine from the United States as he could get away with. trump's actions to disrupt NATO had to have left that European military alliance divided and unfocused.

What Putin got was a bloody nose, figurately speaking. 

Literally, five days into his ordering the invasion of Ukraine, what Putin has is an international PR nightmare, near-global condemnation of his war, escalating sanctions and lockdowns of every financial avenue Russia has - including cutting off banks from SWIFT, a transactional process that can arguably block the Russian citizenry and businesses from their own accounts - not to mention a tanking stock market, and nothing resembling a cakewalk into Kyiv to set up his puppet state.

Putin's rival Zelenskyy failed to flee the capital when the invasion started, instead using his media savvy to go onto social media and make a personal call to arms to every Ukrainian to stop the Russians approaching their major cities. Reported when asked by western powers to evacuate for his own safety, Zelenskyy answered "I need ammunition, not a ride." Sonofabitch (and I mean this in a cool way) is getting comparisons to freaking Winston Churchill, for God's sake.

It's still too early into the fighting, but far too many reports have gotten out about Russian heavy armor failing to reach objectives without enough fuel, Russian conscripts getting lost, and air transports getting shot down before they can deploy troops to seize vital structures (like Kyiv's airport). 

Russia's army is supposed to be this formidable behemoth. Rebuilt from the downturn of the Soviet Union collapse. Armed with the latest high-tech gear, reliable tanks, fearsome air strength, cyberwar capabilities. Five days in, and they're performing about as well as Iraqi forces did in BOTH Persian Gulf wars. It'd be hilarious if the bloodshed of Ukrainian civilians wasn't so painful.

Social media is filling up with clips of Ukrainians berating Russian tank units stranded along the roadside, or tractors dragging off Russian tanks left abandoned in the middle of nowhere. NO I AM NOT MAKING THAT UP.

If true, it’s probably the first tank ever stolen by a farmer… ))
Ukrainians are tough cookies indeed. #StandWithUkraine #russiagohome pic.twitter.com/TY0sigffaM

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) February 27, 2022

And that's not even going into the heroism of the thirteen Ukrainian defenders of Snake Island, who refused to surrender to Russian ships with a defiant "Go fuck yourself." (Update 3/5/22: Those defenders may have survived but are likely POWs)

All of Putin's efforts to portray his invasion as a "peacekeeping" effort to "de-Nazify" Ukraine didn't sell well past his own sycophants. Nearly the entire world views him as a war criminal, and it's a view that's not going to go away if he tries to prolong this war any further.

There is welcome news that Ukraine and Russia are agreeing to peace talks, with Ukraine insisting they won't surrender, but that then begs the question just what the hell Putin will ever agree on to end this invasion?

Putin has already shot his load, as it were. Making a grand pronouncement that Ukraine wasn't even a real country and that he was going to make them all happy Russians again, only to have nearly every Ukrainian grab a rifle and fight back. Even grandmothers were tossing sunflower seeds at Russian troops cursing that their bodies will be fertilizer for the flowers that will bloom. 

Putin has already flexed his nation's military might, only to face the possibility that he's going to have to retreat, never a good look for a bullying autocrat. Or worse, double down on the troops and weaponry (that he may not have) and try to overwhelm Ukrainian resistance by sheer numbers, risking the growing anti-war sentiment of the citizenry at home.

Putin called for this invasion in spite of U.S. President Biden's increased warnings of massive backlash in the form of sanctions and financial lockdowns. He tried to brush off such concerns claiming Russia would endure it, but there are serious signs he underestimated the resolve of most major financial nations as both the U.S. and the EU are closing off nearly every revenue stream Russia needs to survive. Shutting down SWIFT is a legitimately painful cutoff. Germany's willingness to cut off their reliance on Russian natural gas has to be a serious blow.

And in terms of foreign relations, Putin's aggressiveness only worked to make the European nations not yet in NATO - like Finland and Sweden, both of them along Russia's northern borders - openly call for debate to join NATO. Threats of retaliation from Russia's foreign minister are falling on deaf ears. Putin's plan to break up the one European alliance in opposition to him has failed.

In fact, it's a bit surprising how NATO is still here, or that the United States is still a member. One of the great fears of donald trump's reign as President Loser of the Popular Vote (Twice) was how he seemed so close to pulling the U.S. out of NATO in order to appease his idol/boss/blackmailer Putin. It was something that could well have happened in 2018 or 2019, just as trump was threatening to cut off all military aid to Ukraine unless they helped him sabotage Biden's presidential hopes (which led to trump's first Impeachment). Something stopped trump from pulling the plug, and until more details - and more behind-the-scenes memoirs get published - we're only left to speculate.

But that failure by trump - gee, another botched job by him, go figure - weakened Putin when it mattered most, because now NATO is revitalized and focused on its original objective of providing a military bulwark against Soviet Russian aggression against the rest of Europe.

Now that I've said all that, I need to go back to my original question: Just what the hell is Putin's endgame here?

If he's bartering for peace, in order to end the economic hits that Russia's taking now and to save whatever's left of an invading force getting bogged down into a mismanaged quagmire, Putin's got a weak hand to play with.

Ukraine is not going to trade away the one card they've got in all this: Their threat/promise to join NATO and/or the EU market. Whatever fears Russia/Putin has about that, it's the one thing Ukraine can't abandon lest they risk Russia pulling this invasion crap ten or twenty years from now. Don't forget, Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons left to them when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, with the promise that Russia would never invade, never pull the bullshit that Putin so obviously did this month. Putin cannot offer anything else for that security again, no other promise or guarantee to prevent invasion the way membership with NATO could guarantee. And yet, it's going to be the one thing Putin wants - No NATO for you! - to take away from this no matter what. Like I said earlier, this is a paradox that can't be resolved through promises he'll easily break.

There's little Putin can offer to the rest of the world, either. He's on record breaking treaties and agreements to pull off this invasion, and anything he has to offer to relieve the economic stranglehold can't be taken at face value or with simple platitudes. For these sanctions to get lifted, he's going to have to sacrifice more than a pound of flesh. We're talking demilitarization along the Ukrainian border with UN peacekeepers put in place to make sure Putin won't pull this stunt again. We're talking reform efforts to purge the oligarchs feeding off the Russian economy and creating global corruption abroad, and likely weaken Putin's power base. We're talking election reforms to guarantee free and open elections that Putin can't steal, which he'll definitely fight to save his own unpopular ass.

Putin's reputation abroad getting shredded is one thing, but it's his position at home that's going to suffer if he's forced to change his narrative and retreat without victory. "Strong Men" authoritarians like himself can never afford to appear weak or beaten: Losing in neighboring Ukraine, with the whole world watching and his own Russian people paying attention, is a sign of weakness that tends to be fatal. The army he led into disaster is likely going to question his further leadership. The politicians he thought were toadying Yes Men are going to dread being blamed for HIS disaster and sacrificed to clear room for more 'competent' Yes Men (if any can be found by now). The citizenry he's tried to bully into acquiescence is going to start mocking him from the shadows if not from the middle of the streets (anti-war marches are already happening in Russia).

In that situation, Putin's not likely to barter with Ukraine or the West in any good faith, meaning the odds of a peaceful end to his invasion are close to nil. A good sign that Putin's not going to negotiate well is how he's already called up his nuclear deployment forces - five days in! - as a sign of how panicked he is this thing isn't going his way.

That Putin is already reaching for the Nuclear Option as a means of forcing the world to cower to him in spite of his failures in Ukraine is both horrifying and placating. Yes, it's scary that we're back to the brinkmanship game of Mutually Assured Destruction. But even Putin - even his military and political advisors who would have to be a buffer in this situation - has to realize that if he goes nuclear that's it, GAME OVER for everyone including themselves, that even if they survive they will end up ruling over a world of radioactive ash.

It's a trump card (sorry, pun intended) that Putin really can't call on. It's at best the one thing he's got going for him that would ensure he gets a safe flight out of Russia after the country rises up against his corrupt weak ass.

That's the only sane way Putin's war is going to end. 

Why Fox Not-News, and the Rest of the Far Right, Loves Putin and Not America

So Putin chose war this week. The invasion of Ukraine is underway and bloody already.

(Also, did they send troops to CHERNOBYL?!?! Where one bad artillery exchange could CRACK OPEN THE GODDAMNED RADIOACTIVE TOMB TO REACTOR NUMBER FOUR?!?!?! Do you want mutant radioactive bears, Putin? BECAUSE THIS IS HOW YOU GET MUTANT RADIOACTIVE BEARS.)

In the past couple of days, the Western leaders making up NATO - formed in opposition to a belligerent Soviet Union and stayed in alliance to keep the peace across Europe when the USSR fell - have done what they can in the early stages: Sanctions issued, diplomatic representatives recalled, public outrage, and promises of future action if Russia doesn't stop the invasion and walk their troops back. It's a delicate matter: blindly rushing in with NATO troops or issuing our own No-Fly Zone over Kyiv to stop Russian air bombings would clearly escalate to a broader war.

This is a serious moment for the United States. Much like previous situations where our foreign policy compels our nation to act in defense of our allies and interests overseas, you would think this is a moment similar to previous struggles like the Berlin Airlift, the Cuban Missile Crisis, or our nation's reactions to 9/11.

A moment for national unity regarding a grave and potentially tragic matter - straight-up war in Europe! - that almost assures American troops going into harm's way to end the conflict on our best possible terms.

Except you wouldn't know that if you tuned into Fox Not-News for all your Putin-loving, pro-Russia propaganda. Everyone on the Far Right - from the usual suspect donald "Putin's BFF" trump to Tucker Carlson - is taking Putin's side instead of President Biden's (via Meryl Cornfield at Washington Post (paywalled)):

As the United States seeks to rally its allies and impose tough penalties for Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine, a vocal group of Republicans and right-leaning commentators is expressing praise and admiration for the president’s strength and shrewdness. President Vladimir Putin, that is.

While most congressional Republicans back Biden’s tough line against Moscow — or argue it should be even tougher — a faction made up of conservative Republicans, supporters of former president Donald Trump and conservative media figures says Putin should be left alone, or even congratulated, by Americans.

Trump complimented Putin on Tuesday, saying it was a “smart move” by the Russian president to send “the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen” to the Ukraine border.

“This is genius,” Trump said in a conservative talk radio interview at his Mar-a-Lago resort, echoing his past praise of the Russian president. “Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful. He used the word ‘independent’ and ‘we’re going to go out and we’re going to go in and we’re going to help keep peace.’ You’ve got to say that’s pretty savvy...”

Of course trump is parroting Putin's lie about "peacekeepers" going into Ukraine. This is the same idiot who as President Loser of the Popular Vote (Twice) essentially did everything he could to give Putin more global prestige and even met with him in a meeting so private not even our own Intelligence agencies know what was shared.

In the meantime with the likes of Carlson:

Fox News host Tucker Carlson, like many others on the right, minimized Russia’s move to invade and overpower a neighboring country as a “border conflict” that should not concern Americans.

“It may be worth asking yourself, since it is getting pretty serious: ‘What is this really about? Why do I hate Putin so much?’” Carlson said Tuesday. “‘Has Putin ever called me a racist? Has he threatened to get me fired for disagreeing with him?’”

In Carlson's view, the Far Left critics and progressives here in the United States are more his enemy than Putin is. So to him, Democrats are Evil and Russian autocratic kleptomaniacs are Good. All because Carlson and those autocrats are on the same wavelength.

There are several vulgar ironies at play.

Back when our nation faced a foreign policy crisis of this magnitude, it was 9/11. Middle Eastern terrorists had directly attacked our major cities and caused the deaths of thousands. War against those terrorists - primarily hiding in Afghanistan - required our nation to mobilize for war.

Fox News was one of the greatest voices screaming for war. And not just in Afghanistan: Fox punditry and other Far Right commentators pushed for an invasion and occupation of Iraq from 2002 into 2003, based on flimsy evidence and long-standing rage towards Saddam Hussein. President George W. Bush (The Lesser) pushed for that invasion, and anyone protesting against that - protesting against Dubya - felt the full wrath of Fox News' outrage.

Now here we are 20 years later, and with the United States edging to a war-time footing these same pundits - who proudly waved the Stars and Stripes screaming "USA! USA!" and demanded the rest of us obey their bloodlust - are now pushing for division and criticism of the current President and rooting for the other side... partly because this current President is a Democrat (boo hiss).

The horrifying thing is that the major reason why Fox Not-News and the rest of the Far Right Noise Machine is supporting Putin is because they share the same belief: This nationalist, Christian White Power identity common between Russians and racist extremists across Europe and the U.S.

Here's an NBC News report by Matt Bradley from 2017:

Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia is working to empower Europe’s far-right and Eurosceptic parties with offers of cooperation, loans, political cover and propaganda. Such love has not gone unrequited: European populists are answering back with fulsome praise for Russia, its foreign policy and its strongman leader...

From the Russian side, empowering anti-European Union populists has the obvious benefit of helping erode the strength of European institutions that Moscow has long considered enemies.

For Europe’s extreme right, the benefits of embracing Putin are more abstract and ideological, said Markus Wagner, a political science professor at the University of Vienna. They see Putin as the kind of patriotic hero who prizes national traditions and realpolitik over the internationalism and openness that have long characterized Western liberalism...

Here's a report by Michael Edison Hayden from the Southern Poverty Law Center about one such link to an extremist White Supremacist group:

Hatewatch found an email address ending with a Russian domain name referenced across the source code of a network of three extreme, far-right websites that operate primarily in the U.S. Those three websites share the same Google Analytics account, one that was first used by a notorious pro-Kremlin propagandist named Charles Bausman.

All three websites feature bylines used by members of The Right Stuff, a white nationalist organization that helped plan and promote the deadly “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in August 2017. The Right Stuff is also the same white nationalist organization for which U.S. State Department Official Matthew Q. Gebert covertly recruited members, as Hatewatch first reported in 2019. At least two of the websites have published inflammatory, racist rhetoric in response to the Black Lives Matter demonstrations that have erupted across the U.S. in recent months. Members of The Right Stuff have also defended eruptions of far-right violence in response to civil unrest this year...

Bausman has a long history of promoting Russian President Vladimir Putin to an English-speaking audience and communicated with a pro-Putin oligarch about money around the time Russia Insider first launched.

In 2015, the website The Interpreter published emails showing Bausman asked for money from pro-Kremlin Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev through his associate, Alexey Komov. The U.S. Department of Treasury sanctioned Malofeev in December 2014 “because he is responsible for or complicit in, or has engaged in, actions or polices that threaten the peace, security, stability, sovereignty, or territorial integrity of Ukraine and has materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of [pro-Kremlin separatist activity].”

Natalia Antonova, a journalist and Russia expert who lived in Moscow for seven years, overlapping the time when Bausman launched his website, told Hatewatch the timing of Russia Insider’s creation is significant, because it launched when Putin needed positive press in the U.S., due to backlash over Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.

“Russia Insider is founded in 2014, which is the same year that Russia attacks Ukraine. And Konstantin Malofeev is fingered as a financial link between so-called rebels in Ukraine and Moscow,” Antonova explained. “Russia was feeling embattled [by the Western press] because most people were not big fans of what Russia was doing to Ukraine. Then, here comes [Russia Insider] where if your takes are too extreme for [Kremlin controlled] Russia Today, that’s where you can get them published...”

This has been happening for a long time, almost a decade, and Putin's been cultivating these relationship with American hate groups to achieve his own agenda against Ukraine.

And the Far Right - the hate-driven, the money-driven - enjoy this cultivation because it gives them both money and power. Remember Russia's involvement with the National Rifle Association? The NRA got suckered into a money laundering scandal, all because they saw the money and they saw the chance to spread their hateful rhetoric with the aid of a foreign dictator they admired.

What's involved here is Christian Nationalism, an underlying ideology for a lot of the White Supremacist militias running around rioting in our streets and nation's Capitol. It's an ideology that abhors a diverse and open culture, and therefore rails against democracy, civil rights, women's choice, and everything else under the sun. It's an ideology reflected in Russia through Putin's alliance with a Russian Orthodox church that promotes the same anti-gay, anti-woman, racist trash you hear from Far Right Republicans every day (especially now in Texas and Florida, God help us).

The (mostly) White Evangelical crowd that makes up the Far Right voting base, and the Fox Not-News audience, worships the likes of Putin - and trump, who poses as a similar autocratic leader - because Putin offers them a chance to remake their own nation in their own Christianist image. In spite of the reality that Putin's (and trump's) actions and statements are so clearly in opposition to Jesus' teachings.

The hypocrisy of such adoration from the Far Right is lost on them. Their greed and their ideology blinds them to the reality that the United States - a nation formed, if flawed, on basic democratic norms and human rights - has to stand against the likes of Putin, who openly mocks everything we've built from 1776 to 1865 to 1945 to 1965 to 1991 to now.

Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon and the rest of the Far Right media are convinced they are backing the right side, even when it's in full opposition to their own nation's security and interests.

Goddamn them.

Part of me wants Biden to ask Congress to declare a state of war existing between the United States and Russia, not so that we are prepared to defend our NATO allies when (not if) Putin escalates the violence in Eastern Europe, but because that declaration would trigger certain laws that would make it harder for the goddamn wingnuts to openly praise Putin and even cut into all the business dealing they've got with Russia.

We're at war against all the spiritual wickedness - violence, corruption, deceit - that Putin represents, thou hypocrites. There's two sides: America's, or the bloody kleptocratic dictator Putin.

You're choosing poorly, Fox Not-News, you're all one step removed from outright treason against the United States. Keep it up, and you'll deserve to pay for your folly.

Ukrainian Paradox

The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin Putin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers.

-- Princess Leia, updated for 2022

Well, it's official: The Cold War is back. Russia is marching in troops to Ukraine 30 years after the Soviet Union broke up: Intensifying hostilities with a Western Europe sensing Putin's enmity towards NATO, and an Eastern Europe not wanting to fall back under Russian control.

To quote Tom Nichols at The Atlantic (paywalled):

Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a long speech full of heavy sighs and dark grievances, made clear today that he has chosen war. He went to war against Ukraine in 2014; now he has declared war against the international order of the past 30 years.

Putin’s slumped posture and deadened affect led me to suspect that he is not as stable as we would hope. He had the presence not of a confident president, but of a surly adolescent caught in a misadventure, rolling his eyes at the stupid adults who do not understand how cruel the world has been to him...

Even discounting Putin’s delivery, the speech was, in many places, simply unhinged. Putin began with a history lesson about how and why Ukraine even exists... But Putin’s point wasn’t that the former subjects of the Soviet Union needed to iron out their differences. Rather, he was suggesting that none of the new states that emerged from the Soviet collapse—except for Russia—were real countries. “As a result of Bolshevik policy,” Putin intoned, “Soviet Ukraine arose, which even today can with good reason be called ‘Vladimir Ilyich Lenin’s Ukraine’. He is its author and architect.”

It is true that Soviet leaders created the 1991 borders. That is also true of what we now call the Russian Federation. Putin, however, went even further back in history: “Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood.”

By that kind of historical reasoning, few nations in Europe, or anywhere else, are safe...

If you follow a lot of foreign policy and intelligence punditry in the U.S. media - I tend to read first from Adam L Silverman at Balloon Juice who's been covering the Russia/Ukraine conflict for years now - you may have noticed a number of observations how Putin was attempting a game of brinkmanship (and failing): Threatening over the past year to escalate the border conflict ongoing since 2014, in order to force concessions from NATO nations that NATO could never fully concede.

The reason NATO could never concede on what Putin wants, was because what Putin wants is total subjugation and submission of Ukraine to Russia's his control. And only Ukraine - their politics, their people - can decide that.

And Ukraine wants nothing to do with Russia. This is from Steven Pifer at Brookings back in 2017:

Following the Soviet Union’s collapse, Ukraine and Russia maintained relations that at times were testy, but their differences largely appeared manageable. That changed in 2014, when the Kremlin used military force to seize Crimea and then supported armed separatism in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas. As a result, attitudes within Ukraine toward Russia have hardened to a consider­able degree, and the appeal of Western institutions such as the European Union and NATO has grown...

One result of the ongoing conflict is hardening attitudes among the Ukrainian population toward Russia and Russians. When Ukraine first regained its independence in the early 1990s, some nationalists held sharply anti-Russian views, but they constituted a small minority. The large majority of Ukrainians generally hoped to get along with Russia; many spoke Russian as their first language and had family and/or friends in Russia.

Russia’s aggression changed that dramatically. Since 2014, a Ukrainian national iden­tity has taken hold. It includes a strong anti-Russian animus. In an April 2017 public opinion survey conducted by Rating Group Ukraine, 57 percent of Ukrainians polled ex­pressed a very cold or cold attitude toward Russia, as opposed to only 17 percent who expressed a very warm or warm attitude...

Those opinions in favor of NATO and the EU have only grown since then: in 2019 they added a constitutional amendment seeking eventual membership in NATO. Today, a solid majority of Ukrainians want NATO and EU membership in direct spite of Russia's growing hostility over that.

Pifer is only noting the current animus between the two bordering nations. A deeper look into history shows a harsh, often violent connection between Russia and Ukraine that underscores a lot of bad blood. Caught between the imperial rises and falls of neighboring Poland and Russia - from the 1600s until the rise of the Soviet Union in the 1920s - Ukrainians became second-class citizens in their own region. Treatment under the Soviets was no better: Between 1932 to 1933 Stalin's regime starved out the population with famine, an act of genocide leading to the deaths of about 3 million people. It's the sort of thing Ukrainians can't ignore or forgive.

And yet here comes Putin, claiming - like most other Russians will - that Ukrainians and Russians are the same ethnicity, the same people: Even though he'll more than likely resume treating Ukrainians as second-class citizens the way they were treated for centuries by Russians.

If we refer to a relationship metaphor: It's like Russia is the drunken abusive boyfriend to Ukraine, who has had to put up with decades if not centuries of emotional abuse, gaslighting, insults, and the occasional beating from a Russia that doesn't understand why Ukraine doesn't love them as much as they should.

(How do you say "Why do you make me keep hitting you, sweetie" in Russian? Also "The beatings will continue until morale improves" would work here...)

Hence the paradox the world faces today.

Russia (Putin) doesn't want Ukraine to go running off to another European alliance like NATO or the EU, but they can't offer anything to Ukraine that would honestly entice Ukrainians to take Russia back as a political/economic partner. So instead, Russia (Putin) will try to "encourage" their relationship by force, not caring that such bullying behavior will only drive Ukrainians more towards joining Western Europe against Russia.

Ukraine is never going to give in to Russia's demands here, they will not agree to any deal absolutely barring them from even thinking about joining NATO. They dare not. Even the mere threat of joining NATO is the only leverage Ukraine has against outright invasion and occupation. Paradox: Every move Russia makes to stop Ukraine from joining NATO only pushes Ukraine further towards joining NATO.

And yet, when you look at it from Russia's perspective - and you do have to give them some sympathy here - the possibility of having a Western-oriented military alliance physically on their border if Ukraine joins NATO would be a straight-up threat to national security. Their own history of invasion and occupation - from Mongols to the East, Napoleon and Hitler from the West - has helped make the Russians a little paranoid about their safety. Being in an ideological Cold War vs. the United States and the West for most of the 20th Century hadn't improved things.

There has always been cultural and political differences between Western Europe and Eastern Europe. Whereas Russia prides itself on being more European than Asian - being one of the nations to straddle those two continents - there are still Western cultural norms that aren't normal to them, which keeps them wary and feeling unwelcome. Their history of corruption and human rights abuses doesn't endear them much in Western eyes as well. 

So to the Russians, having some kind of geographical barrier between them and the West makes some kind of twisted sense. In the post-World War era, that meant occupying Eastern Europe to forge a Warsaw Pact to divide Europe against itself for 40 more years. Today, it means trying to undermine democratic institutions across all of Europe to break up NATO and bring nations like Ukraine and Poland back under Russian influence.

And yet, the more Putin and Russia does all this, the more this will drive Ukraine further into siding with the West and guarantee a NATO agreement that would fulfill Putin's darkest fears. It's also forcing NATO members to reaffirm their agreement and support for each other, meaning Putin's efforts to break it up is going for naught.

Everything going on right now as Putin sends more troops closer to Kyiv and closer to outright war with Ukraine is a downward spiral that neither side can stop. Ukraine can't because their very existence as a nation and as a people are under direct threat. Putin and Russia can't because they dare not leave themselves vulnerable to a Western Europe that would challenge their corruption and abuse. NATO and the United States can't stop because Putin threatens our economic integrity (yes, we have some at least compared to him) and our own political/cultural institutions.

The one who COULD stop all of this is Putin. He's the one really triggering all of this and pushing it all into a downward spiral of conflict. But he won't. He's fully committed to this agenda, if he stops himself he will become weak to his own corrupt allies, so he will keep forging ahead until either Ukraine falls completely or Russia collapses from its own failings.

Until then, all the rest of the world can do is push back as best they can, avoiding outright war if we can.

Because THAT kind of war can spiral well out of control and turn the whole Earth to ash.

Gods help us. 

HOLY SH-T IT'S PRESIDENTS DAY!!!

At last.

Time to honor all the great and wonderful Presidents of the United States who served this nation with honor, grace, and distinction.

That pretty much just weeds the list down to Washington, Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and Obama. The rest were either too quirky, too foolish, too graceless, too foul-mouthed (dammit Truman!!!), too deceptive, too dishonorable, or served without distinction.

And oh we DEFINITELY should not honor this guy. 

Lemme shill for Professor Barber's Presidential Character tome of eldritch lore again!

EAT ALL THE PRESIDENTIAL PEACHES, AMERICA!!!

Damned If You trump, Damned If You Don't

As you might know, donald trump former President Loser of the Popular Vote (Twice) is facing a set of investigations in New York regarding his business dealings and his questionable tax dodging. It's a twofer: One investigation is pursuing the evidence as a Civil matter, another grand jury investigation is looking at the Criminal violations.

And yes, in our legal system you can get investigated in both Civil and Criminal systems over the same alleged acts (SEE: OJ Simpson's trial for murdering his ex-wife and another man AND the wrongful death lawsuits of those murders) without it violating Double Jeopardy.

The newsworthy thing happening today was that trump and his children involved with his businesses were in court arguing to prevent the Civil case from forcing them to testify to that particular grand jury. Their case was that anything they said - or didn't say - regarding civil violations could get handed over to the criminal grand jury and violate their Fifth Amendment rights over self-incrimination.

If we go to the AP News coverage for an explainer:

(New York Attorney General Letitia) James, a Democrat, is considering whether to sue Trump or his company, the Trump Organization, over the way they have valued his assets over the years. Essentially, her investigators contend Trump and his company had a “fraudulent or misleading” pattern of saying properties they own such as golf courses and skyscrapers were worth more when they wanted better deals on loans, and less when they wanted tax breaks...

Trump has bristled at allegations that he lied about his wealth. He and his lawyers have pointed out that asset valuations can be subjective. They’ve repeatedly ripped the investigation as purely political, and even sued James to try to stop her probe.

IS THERE A CRIMINAL PROBE, TOO?

Yes. The Manhattan district attorney is also investigating. A grand jury has been hearing testimony and reviewing documents covering much of the same subject material as James’ civil probe.

WHAT IS A DEPOSITION?

A deposition is like an interview, usually held in a law office or conference room, except witnesses must swear an oath and could be subject to penalties if they commit perjury. They’re typically recorded.

Depositions, frequently depicted in legal dramas as pitting one side against the other across a table, are most common in civil litigation and are often used to obtain information or get someone’s answers on the record.

WILL TRUMP HAVE TO ANSWER THE QUESTIONS?

Since anything a person says in a civil deposition could also be used against them in a criminal investigation, witnesses are free to invoke their Fifth Amendment right to remain silent at any time.

So if he chooses, Trump could simply refuse to answer many questions...

Refusing to answer the toughest questions could hurt Trump in any Civil trial. A jury is allowed to know if a person has refused to answer, and is also allowed to infer that if the person had answered the question, it might make them look bad...

The problem apparently is that trump (and his family members as well) could plead the Fifth out of a fear that any testimony will incriminate himself in the Criminal proceedings at the other end of the courthouse, and if the Criminal investigation leads to charges and a trial his pleading the Fifth can't be used against him. However, the likely Civil court case can present his refusal to testify to the jury, which makes him vulnerable to any "guilty" or "culpable" findings there.

An interesting thing about the differences between a deposition - which Civil cases rely on - vs. grand jury Criminal testimony:

IS THIS LIKE TESTIFYING BEFORE A GRAND JURY?

There are some similarities, but in New York, anyone who testifies before a grand jury automatically gets immunity from prosecution for any crimes they discuss.

For this reason, New York prosecutors are unlikely to call Trump before a grand jury...

Hence trump's argument that James' Civil investigation is a witch-hunt trying to work around the limits of a Criminal probe.

Thing is, the judge wasn't buying trump's argument (Also via AP News but article by Michael R. Sisak):

Former President Donald Trump must answer questions under oath in New York state’s civil investigation into his business practices, a judge ruled Thursday.

Judge Arthur Engoron ordered Trump and his two eldest children, Ivanka and Donald Trump Jr., to comply with subpoenas issued in December by New York Attorney General Letitia James.

Trump and his two children must sit for depositions within 21 days, Engoron said following a two-hour hearing with lawyers for the Trumps and James’ office...

21 DAYS! (checks calendar) Holy shit, that's March 10. MARK IT DOWN, PEOPLE.

“In the final analysis, a State Attorney General commences investigating a business entity, uncovers copious evidence of possible financial fraud, and wants to question, under oath, several of the entities’ principals, including its namesake. She has the clear right to do so.” Engoron wrote in his decision...

Suck it, trump.

Trump’s lawyers told Engoron that having him sit for a civil deposition now, while his company is also the subject of a parallel criminal investigation, is an improper attempt to get around a state law barring prosecutors from calling someone to testify before a criminal grand jury without giving them immunity.

“If she wants sworn testimony from my client, he’s entitled to immunity. He gets immunity for what he says, or he says nothing,” Trump’s criminal defense lawyer, Ronald Fischetti, said in the hearing, which was conducted by video conference.

Anything Trump says in a civil deposition could be used against him in the criminal probe being overseen by the Manhattan district attorney’s office. If Trump invokes the Fifth Amendment, Fischetti said it could still hurt a potential criminal defense.

“That’ll be on every front page in the newspaper in the world,” Fischetti said. “How can I possibly pick a jury in that case...?”

If you're wondering why pleading the Fifth is so damaging, you'll need to do some research on "Fifth Amendment Commies." Back in the days of the McCarthyist witch hunts for Communists, it was a favorite tactic of the Far Right to summon people before public hearings and get them to refuse to self-incriminate. Back then in the 1950s, in an era of Loyalty Oaths, people could actually lose their jobs if they admitted they were ever members of the Communist Party (which a number of people were back in the 1930s and the Great Depression) even for a day. So they plead the Fifth, after which McCarthy and his allies would accuse them anyway of being "Fifth Amendment Commies," forcing their employers to fire them anyway.

As a result, even though it's perfectly legal under the Constitution, the Fifth Amendment protection from self-incrimination has a bad reputation in the public discourse. Republicans still enjoy pummeling anyone who goes to that legal tactic in any way: trump himself bashed the Fifth Amendment as a "refuge for mobsters" and that you shouldn't plead the Fifth "if you're innocent." So this has to burn for him. You can't claim to be a winner and you can't claim the legality of your actions if you have to go on court record pleading the Fifth (and pleading it more than 500 times like son eric trump recently did).

Another thing that has to bother trump - and especially his lawyers - is how any deposition runs the risk of trump committing perjury in any way. It's been noted before: trump can contradict himself on testimony at any given time if forced to answer questions. Driven by the need to look perfect - to look like a winner at all times - trump will say one thing about an incident in one sentence and then say the exact opposite about the same incident in a later question if it makes him look good. He'll make grand statements about any meetings or conversations he has, opening himself up to counter-testimony from other people who'll remember those conversations differently... and have records to prove what happened.

If trump is compelled in the Civic deposition to say something other than pleading the Fifth, he opens himself up to the risk of countering the thousands of receipts AG James already has (especially from the Mazars accounting firm that just pushed trump under the bus).

No matter which way trump is forced to testify, he's in deep trouble.

Which is probably why he doesn't want to testify at all.

But the legal system is no longer treating him with the kid gloves they've used back when he merely filed for bankruptcy four (or six?) times back in the 1990s and 2000s.

He's in deep trouble now.

And the best thing the rest of us can do is break out the popcorn GIFs, as always.

via GIPHY

Say It, Florida. Gays Exist.

(Update: Many thanks again to Batocchio for including this blog in Crooks & Liars' Mike's Blog Round-Up! Please read this and many other articles and please leave comments, I wanna feel the love from time to time...)

Well, this is a pretty sick attempt by the Florida Republicans to take us back 20 years into denial and homophobia. The state legislature is about ready to pass a "Don't Say Gay" bill (via Joe Hernandez at NPR):

Proposed legislation in Florida would restrict how teachers can discuss sexuality and gender in the classroom, the latest effort by Republican lawmakers to remove the teaching of LGBTQ issues from schools.

Supporters say the measure empowers parents who deserve to have a say in what their children learn, but critics — who've dubbed the proposal the "Don't Say Gay" bill — argue that it will strip protections from LGBTQ kids and have a chilling effect on educators...

Under the House bill, a Florida school district "may not encourage classroom discussion about sexual orientation or gender identity in primary grade levels or in a manner that is not age-appropriate or developmentally appropriate for students." The bill doesn't specify how "age-appropriate" and "developmentally appropriate" would be defined.

The bills would also give parents the ability to sue schools if they believed the schools violated any provisions of the law...

That lawsuit empowerment is tied into the "bounty" concept that the Far Right have championed to go after abortion rights, civil rights, and any other rights by granting haters the ability to bankrupt their targets. Back to the report:

The group Equality Florida, which advocates for ending discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity, said the bill is "dangerous" and accused lawmakers of targeting LGBTQ young people.

"This legislation is meant to stigmatize LGBTQ people, isolate LGBTQ kids, and make teachers fearful of providing a safe, inclusive classroom," the group said in a statement. "The existence of LGBTQ students and parents is not a taboo topic that has to be regulated by the Florida Legislature."

All of this is happening even though last decade we saw the Supreme Court guarantee Gay Marriage as a right, even though we've undergone serious changes in our military and other institutions recognizing gays exist and can serve the public trust as well as the heterosexuals.

This isn't only an issue of free speech and free identity for our residents and for our kids. This is going to get worse than just banning books about LGBTQ fictional characters or real-life biographical figures. This is going to get worse than shutting down talk about social roles as our children grow into the adults - hetero and gay and genderfluid - we need them to be.

This law is going to grant license to the bullies and the gay-bashers to let loose, allow them to accuse anyone of even uttering a word about homosexuality or gender identity. This is a license to go after the teens who are gay, who are trans, who are genderfluid, and who aren't harming anyone else by their existence despite what the haters fear.

All the current problems we have in our schools with bullying will multiply as the haters will encourage their kids in schools to harass and punish anyone they deem as LGBTQ/Other and get away with it because we DARE NOT say "gay" in those schools. Teachers will get pressured to look the other way. The kids who are finding themselves LGBTQ as they grow up will suffer emotionally, if not physically. Even the kids who AREN'T gay/lesbian are going to get picked on out of fear and rumor, and will have nowhere to go for help.

Basically, the state of Florida is happy to turn their public schools into even more hostile and violent war zones.

All because to the Far Right running this state the very concept of non-heterosexual identity still terrifies them. Even after all the research that there are biological and psychological factors that are well beyond any religious morality.

Always remember this kids: The imposters, the bullies, the haters, they all will employ force instead of argument, impose silence where they cannot convince, and propagate their character - lack of - by the sword.

The Far Right religious wingnuts are desperate to impose silence about gay rights - about gays existing at all - because they cannot convince us to be as hateful and judgmental as they are.

Fight back. 

Recognize that we should not be bullies to our fellows. 

Recognize that real Christian Faith calls on us to love each other, without restriction or hinderance. 

Recognize that fear is an enemy, it drives us to hate and to hurt others.

Recognize that the Republican Party is running on Hate because they cannot run on anything else.