Sunday, April 08, 2018

Things That Should Worry You: April 2018 Edition

Lessee:

The trump trade war against China is escalating, and while Wall Street is doing what it can to send up the red flags - by sliding into the red ink for most of last week - it looks like trump is going to keep pushing this agenda as far as he can take because he genuinely believes "trade wars are good and easy to win".

Try telling that to the farmers who export billions to China (via CNBC):

If China follows through on its plan to impose a 25 percent tariff on soybeans, it would make global suppliers like Brazil even more attractive to Chinese buyers. It also would encourage those suppliers to add more acres of soybeans, and then negatively impact the price American farmers can get for their crop...
The lion's share of the U.S. agribusiness trade to China involves soybeans, which are grown in many farm states where Trump received strong support during the 2016 presidential election. Top soybean growing states include Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio and the Dakotas...
Experts say that if China cuts agricultural exports, it could impact a wide swath of the farm economy — from small to large farmers. It could reduce profits for farmers and make them more willing to delay large purchases, such as new machinery, and encourage them to cut back in other places...

This isn't three-dimensional chess, people: it's TEN-dimensional chess, and trump can't even figure out how the horsey pieces move.

Let's look at the other foreign policy nightmare that trump can't handle: Syria.

President Donald Trump is sounding off about an immediate withdrawal of US troops from Syria, according to multiple news reports published on Thursday (via Business Insider).

But the president reportedly faced some strong opposition from top military officials, including Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Joint Chiefs of Staff Joe Dunford, who warned Trump of the consequences of a rapid withdrawal, during a meeting on Tuesday...
During the meeting, Dunford reportedly said Trump's plan was not productive and asked the president for clear instructions on what to do, The Associated Press reported.
Mattis chimed in and argued that a quick pull-out would not only be detrimental to the US, but doing so in a responsible manner would be logistically impossible. Mattis reportedly suggested a one-year withdrawal timeframe instead.
Trump then countered and gave officials five to six months to destroy the Islamic State and then withdraw, officials told The Associated Press.
Trump also indicated that he expects the military to succeed in destroying ISIS by October...

Cadet Bone Spurs seems to think this is a World War II video game where the targets are easy to spot, the bad guys are all in one contained area, and all we have to do is use the God cheat code to reach the final cutscene.

trump shows no sign of understanding logistics - even our military with all its experience has to pace itself - and post-war rebuilding. One of the reasons why our military stayed so long in Iraq - and why we're still in Afghanistan - is because we had to commit to nation-building efforts to give the country an infrastructure to live off of. Without those reconstruction efforts, you leave the region to stew in its own rage and allow the bad guys like the Taliban and ISIL to seep back into the mess and start over.

Meanwhile, abandoning Syria like this reconfirms the hold Assad (and Russia) will keep on whatever is left standing of Syria while the terrorist factions claim all the broken parts. America (and the Middle East) loses in the short term and we will pay the price again in the long term.

This is what you voted for, 62 million Americans. You voted for the guy with NO foreign policy experience and TERRIBLE business history to manage this nation.

We are so very fucking screwed.

1 comment:

dinthebeast said...

Wikipedia has this to say about Russia's naval facility in Tartus:
"Tartus is the Russian Navy's only Mediterranean repair and replenishment spot, sparing Russia’s warships the trip back to their Black Sea bases through the Turkish Straits.[3] It is the Russian Navy's only overseas base.[4]"
Putin is gonna back Assad all the way to the bus stop, as they say.

And perhaps there was a reason that despite all of its problems and unpopularity, Obama thought the TPP was still a good idea...

-Doug in Oakland