Friday, January 25, 2019

How the trump Shutdown *Ended*

This ended up being a crazier day than earlier realized. Via Sam Stein, Sam Brodley and Jackie Kucinich at the Daily Beast:

President Donald Trump agreed on Friday to fund the government without money for his much-desired border wall, effectively bringing an end to the longest shutdown in American history.
The deal extends funding for the government at current levels until February 15  and include a “vehicle” for lawmakers to begin discussions between the two congressional chambers over a larger bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security and border security specifically...

trump tried to bluff his way through the speech by bringing up more fearmongering about kidnappers and slave traffickers, and that if he didn't get his wall by the February deadline he would force another Shutdown, I don't think anybody was believing his bluster by that point.

Though Trump spoke defiantly, the consensus view from officials of both parties on Capitol Hill was the Trump’s clock had been cleaned. The president had insisted to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) that he would not sign any bill to open the government that did not include $5.7 billion in wall funding. But amid sagging poll numbers and partial closures of critical government functions—including, on Friday morning, flights in and out of LaGuardia Airport in New York—Trump committed on Friday to doing just that...

I noted in earlier essays on the #trumpShutdown how this would end - when the unpaid federal workers would reach the breaking point and force a major confrontation - and I'd like to think I was correct. Earlier this morning, just as the Stone arrest was gathering notice, word quickly got out that LaGuardia Airport in Queens had to ground flights and suspend operations due to not enough Air Traffic Controllers coming in to work.

It cascaded from there. Newark Airport had to ground flights. That left JFK running at whatever reduced (yet swamped) level it could. At that point we are talking about closing off transit to one of the biggest and busiest business centres - NEW YAWK CITY - in the world.

Several East Coast hubs had to delay. DC's national airport was suffering cancelled flights. By lunchtime even the Atlanta airport - a MAJOR hub to the Southeast states - was threatening to close. Faced with a serious crisis - the collapse of the entire airline industry and the stranding of hundreds of thousands of angry travelers, not to mention every other business tied to air travel - trump seemed to cave. Just look at the timing: Nothing else - the destruction of national parks, the suffering of workers' families, the loss of public trust - made trump panic. A serious hit to our financial institutions was a serious wake-up call.

There is honest-to-God irony here. The beginning of the Grand Republican Revolution to dismantle the federal government started with Reagan and when he broke the Air Traffic Controllers' union in 1981. The heir to Reagan - trump - just broke when enough Air Traffic controllers called in the Blue Flu.

There are concerns trump will make another Shutdown attempt (since the current deal is a three-week Continuing Resolution). I doubt it.

trump has lost any political capital he had with this fight. he has access to a lot of weapons as President Loser of the Popular Vote, but every one that he used proved useless. The one nuclear option he has - declaring Emergency Powers - was one he kept threatening to deploy... but never did, possibly warned that such a move was gross overreach that would backfire on him. By ending the Shutdown fight without any concessions won, trump has nothing to trade with except more bluster and threats (which no one will believe).

If trump tries another Shutdown, all that has to happen now is the federal workers call in sick on Day One and make trump answer for the entire nation shutting down as a consequence. They all saw it. Workers may not be able to strike but they are realizing they can all punch back as one, and make that blow hurt.

trump lost ground on his approval numbers directly related to his mishandling of the Shutdown. A lot of independent voters - the ones who respect/vote for competency - will not vote for him again. If there are more Shutdowns more Americans will still believe he and the Republicans are to blame.

The frustrations among the other Republican officials during this Shutdown grew noticeable and got out to the public. While the Republicans still excel at presenting a unified facade - they still have a Fox Not News Narrative to follow - they are starting to show cracks and an unwillingness to charge into any further suicide runs.

And it's not just the politicians biting back. The Far Right punditry are outraged that trump caved (and caved so easily). President-Wannabe Ann Coulter - the one who originally bullied trump (!) into starting the Shutdown in the first place - went into Angry Panda mode. While there may be an attempt later on to pull back on the criticism to get the wingnuts to stay "on message," this is an affront the Right Wing Noise Machine will never forgive.

And the kicker: trump gave a major victory to not only Nancy Pelosi (who needed to demonstrate her authority as Speaker of the House and quash any intraparty resistance) but also Chuck Schumer  (whose earlier reputation as a bipartisan dealmaker made him look vulnerable to his Democratic base) who needed to demonstrate his resolve as Minority Leader in the Senate. By taking trump's punches - and by punching back - Pelosi demonstrated trump was beatable.

Better for Pelosi: She demonstrated the Speaker of the House still has power in the modern era, and has already earned comparisons to some of the greatest Speakers in our nation's history.

Worse for trump: Pelosi proved trump has no skill.

The "Art of the Deal" gave way to the "Power of Resistance".

Welcome to the long weekend, trump. You'll likely fume, you're likely going to tweet like a madman, you'd better check in with your lawyers about the next round of Mueller indictments.

P.S.: to the next likely targets of those indictments - Kushner and donnie junior - don't forget the FBI likes to make arrests between the hours of 11:39 PM and 6:27 AM. You will never get a good night's rest again bwhahahahahaha.

1 comment:

dinthebeast said...

From Taegan Goddard:

“Our diversity is our strength. But our unity is our power. And that is what maybe the president underestimated.”

— Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), quoted by the Washington Post.


-Doug in Oakland