Geek Time: Who Survives The Battle of Winterfell

So with the final season of Game of Thrones about to enter its biggest moment - the long-awaiting BIG BATTLE BETWEEN THE LIVING AND THE DEAD - is there any thought towards who lives and who dies?

Ah yes, I've been here before. The riddle Varys offered to Tyrion about the game itself: who wields true power? Power of life and death? Power of forgiveness and endless vendetta? Power of fire and ice, the elements of the world?

Mostly the fans will care about this: Who's gonna live or die?

Well, actually they care about George RR Martin FINISHING THE LAST TWO DAMN BOOKS, WRITE LIKE THE WIND GEORGE.

Ahem. Back to "Who lives and who dies?"

This actually falls under how high fantasy literature works, via tropes/archetypes, which I actually commented on at my librarian/writing blog. To quote... well, myself:

I've seen the Twitter explode over a major television episode before, but not like this where the fandom was seemingly "OMG How could they do this?"  And one of the tweets caught my eye: someone arguing that Robb Stark - one of the key victims of the massacre - was meant to be the hero of the story, the avenger of his fallen father, etc.

But the thing is if you pay attention to any of the High Fantasy tropes, even when Deconstructed, you might notice that Robb Stark was never meant to be the hero of the story...

Mixed into all this is The Hero's Journey, the Jungian/Campbellian method of storytelling that lends itself best to High Fantasy (and pulp fantasy) literature.  In most respects, Robb doesn't fit the cycle at all: his call to adventure is more an act of vengeance against the family that betrayed his.  While it falls into the narrative of Seeking Justice (SEE the legend/myth of Horus), Robb is not out for any Enlightenment nor is he setting the natural balance of the world back in place (i.e., the return of the Rightful, Once-Promised King).  In some respects he doesn't fulfill the Prophecy...

The obvious choice of being the Hero is Daenerys Targaryen.  A bit of a gender flip but she qualifies: the prophecy of the Prince Who Was Promised fits her (birth under the right stars, her childhood, her travels, her proving her mystical dragon power).  As the last known member of her royal family, it's her throne by blood-right.  She's undergone various journeys of self-discovery (the Hero's Journey) that has unlocked more magick to her, has suffered setbacks but survived.

By sheer volume of POV chapters, Tyrion Lannister (also the most popular character yet) could by that designation be the most likely candidate of being the Hero.  The unliked and unloved member of a powerful, corrupt family, the one member with any recognizable decency as a human being, quick with words, adept at politics, victimized not by his actions but by a world that can't handle a dwarf as lord or hero...  It would again be a twist on the concept of Hero (you were perhaps expecting someone 6'4" with broad shoulders, a gleaming sword and amusing comedic sidekick?) to have him end up surviving the whole mess and uniting the kingdoms under a peaceful rule.

Another candidate is Jon Snow, bastard son (as generally believed) of the Fallen Good Father figure of Eddard Stark.  Treated coolly by his adoptive mother Catelyn, Jon is nonetheless on great terms with the Stark family.  Jon accepts a Call to Adventure by volunteering to do his service as Night Watch on the Wall (a key stronghold against wildlings and the zombie-like Others), and undergoes many unnerving quests and tests of character.  It was Jon who insisted on the children adopting a set of orphaned direwolves (mystic animal guardians associated to the Stark crest).  With Robb as the decoy hero now fallen, Jon now fits the bill as the heroic heir of House Stark.  Given no one really knows who his mother is, that Eddard refused to reveal the secret, that Eddard was present at his sister's mysterious death, said sister having been abducted/raped(?) by the Targaryen heir... there's a very reasonable fan theory that Jon may be the Prince Who Was Promised.  (Note: there is a slight problem with this as Jon is getting stabbed to death at the end of the latest novel.  He could, of course, survive the ordeal... something a Hero does in the Campbellian cycle)... (Follow-Up Note: In the TV show he *did* get better).

I've listed those as the three likeliest survivors to win the Iron Throne, and so far they haven't let me down. Given how they're likely to survive to the series finale, I'd give Dany, Jon and Tyrion a pass on the Dead Pool list.

However:

That leaves about eight to twenty fan favorites to worry about.

Let's focus Starks first:

• Sansa? Had turned from airhead princess into cold-hard Queen of the North. She's endured things, man. I doubt a Night King can put her down now. Either her, Arya or Dany will put an end to Cersei (who will survive because HER fate is the series finale).
• Arya? She's gone from tomboy to sellsword to faceless assassin able to kill any man up close (Needle!) or far away (throwing knives and arrows!). She got it on with her childhood crush Gendry. She's done everything but finish her list of enemies... and that means Cersei better hide...
• Bran? He's gone from crippled thing to warging seer to the Three-Eyed Raven. In some ways, he's already dead to the world, so dying in a final confrontation with the Night King (who seems to want Bran deader than dead) wouldn't be much of a shock. But he has achieved Gifts and powers beyond the known, and may be fated to live/die another way...
• Theon? Not really a Stark and indeed caused much of their earlier misery when he betrayed them to gain favor with a House (Greyjoy) that abandoned him. But he suffered immensely for his folly and found some redemption saving Sansa and then his own sister. He's offered to defend Bran personally as they wait in the trap being set for the Night King. Theon's probably toast.
• Samwise uh Samwell Tarly? The bookworm. Jon's bumbling sidekick who turns out to be the truest friend. A Secret Finder. The first one who actually killed a Walker and found out it's dragonglass that could work. He's still not really a good fighter, but he's brave enough to stand when it matters. He kind of needs to live because he has a destiny to confront a corrupt Maester citadel that refuses to save the world.
• Gilly? Samwell's wildling girlfriend. She's raising a sister-daughter (raped by her own father, that's how effed up this world is) but smarter and braver than most other characters. Stuff her into a fridge and they will riot in the bars. So I think she lives.
• Lyanna Mormont? She's ten. She's dead serious about defending the North and standing with the Starks through thick and thin. She may be a bigger ass-kicker than Arya. In the name of the Old Gods and the New, don't kill her.
• Ghost? Jon's Direwolf, one of the last to survive (Arya's Nymeria is the other). He's too cool to die. He's gonna put in a good kill before the series ends.

The other Heroes of Westeros:

• Gendry? He's not a true warrior - he's more the smithy - and he's done something - sex with his One True Pairing Arya - that usually condemns a minor hero to a tragic death. But he's a bastard son of Eddard Stark's oldest friend, the one honest character among the heroes, a figure of the Common Man who may yet achieve better things for a future world. Also, if he dies Arya might break the Fourth Wall and kill the show's producers. So he might survive...
• Tormund? Leader of the Wildlings, ardent and unwanted suitor of Brienne, fearless warrior of the cold. Armed with dragonglass, he could prove worthy and survive. But a strong hero has to fall in this battle to make it meaningful, and he's a likely target to do so.
• Edd? Last Commander of the Night's Watch. Sarcastic ally to Jon. He might die like Tormund to highlight how deadly this battle will get. But he's been a survivor of other major battles and may yet survive this one.
• Beric? Leader of the Brotherhood without Banners, a True Believer in the Lord of Light who's been dead and risen more times than I've had hot dinners. He possesses a wight-ready weapon of a flaming sword and may be difficult to put down in a fight... but if the Night King kills him and resurrects him as a White Walker that would be an ironic fate.
• Davos? He's no fighter, he'll tell you as much when you ask. He's arguably the sanest man in the Seven Kingdoms who gives counsel probably better than Tyrion could. He's completed several journeys following one banner (Stannis) and another (Jon). Lost a son to war and gained a spiritual one in Gendry. Lost an adopted daughter to madness (Shireen) and may yet rescue a child of the North when (not if) the Crypts they're hiding in turn into death traps. He deserves to survive to see a better world, but he could die to make the day more tragic.

The Lannisters and their allies at Winterfell:

I mentioned Tyrion earlier as a likely survivor - he has one final problem (his lying sister) to confront - so that's moot.

• Jaime? He started off as the Kingslayer, a betrayer, someone who tried to kill Bran (crippling him), fought against the Starks, had incestuous relations with his sister Cersei that doomed much of the kingdom to the Hell they're about to face... but has also gone through a Redemption Arc of trying to do the right thing that made him more heroic than other villains could be. Honestly brave, even with one hand gone a good fighter for the battle to come, he will play a key role this episode... but will he survive? He's completed much of his redemption - turning against Cersei at last, confessing his sins to Bran the one he hurt the most, knighted his redeemer Brienne - but has one last part to complete: confronting his love and betraying the one he should have betrayed long ago...
• The Hound (Sandor)? He has a terrible fear of fire that could make him useless in a fight - especially if Beric turns and wields his firesword against Sandor. Thing is, Sandor's got one fight left in him. CLEGANEBOWL.  “What they did to you doesn’t matter. It’s not how it ends for you, brother. You know who’s coming for you. You’ve always known.” Two men enter... 
• Podrick? Faithful squire, Sex God among men, worst fighter on the battlefield. But he's the sweetest, purest Lannister ally in the game. They can't kill him... They shouldn't...
• Brienne? A woman warrior in a world that frowned against her role, her arc has been to prove herself a Knight and Die (Live?) for a cause greater than herself. She loved the one man who showed any kindness (Renly, an early casualty of the Game) and may be in love with the only man who showed any respect (Jaime). The previous episode gave her what she desired most: actual knighthood, given by Jaime as the noblest act he's ever done (and she knows it). In every respects... she's doomed. Prime candidate of the Hero(ine) the fans love most whose death will break a million viewers' hearts. As long as it's a good death...
  Actually, I kid. She's gonna survive, marry Jaime, and have like seven daughters who grow up as the next Kingsguard.
• Bronn? He's not showing up yet, so he's good until he has to show up to either betray his best friend Tyrion, his best boss Jaime, or his financial backer Cersei...

Daeneyrs' army and followers:

Khaleesi and her dragon will survive, but the rest are in trouble...

• Jorah? A Mormont who betrayed his family name, who then betrayed a woman Khaleesi he came to worship (even love). Patron Saint of the Friendzone. He's come to terms with the fact she will never love him, and found out his own father Jeor (who served as Jon's Lord Commander on the Night's Watch) passed on his legacy to Jon. He's survived greyscale and more Suicide-By-Sellsword attempts than any man alive. He's got nothing to live for and every reason to die a martyr (likely saving Dany from a cold death). So of course he's gonna live.
• Missandei? A freed slave who's become Dany's closest confidant and friend. A witness to history and potential speaker for it. She kinda has to live but she's in a relationship that can doom characters like her...
• Greyworm? Leader of Khaleesi's Unsullied army, the best and most tight-knit unit on the battlefield (think US Marines). While much of that army can fall, he's the one with the name and face-time for fans to root for. He may be gelded but he's still a man, in love with Missandei. Um, yeah. That could kill them both.
• Dany's Dragons? Drogon is hers, named for her lost first husband (and genuine love). Rhaegar is Jon's... so he might die because Jon is more of a Wolf (Ghost!). Viserion (named for her evil older brother who died Season 1) is already an Ice Dragon under thrall to the Knight King. He'll die in a one-on-one version Drogon...

The White Walkers:

Um, they're already dead. That's the problem.

• But in particular the Knight King. He lives, his army grows. He dies, the entire army dies with him. Thing is, while Cersei is a major villain she's just a flea compared to the dire threat the Knight King presents. Killing *him* too early makes the remaining episodes seem anticlimactic. There's a possibility the Knight King loses the battle of Winterfell... but survives somehow to remain a final threat to our heroes when the final battle commences in King's Landing.

So that's what I got.

Valar Morghulis