Anniversary: The Fires Of Putin's War Still Burning

It's been two years now, and it's not the best possible way to celebrate this anniversary of when Putin sent the full might of his Russian military into all of Ukraine back in February 2022. Looking back at some of what I wrote, I noticed these observations:

Russia (Putin) doesn't want Ukraine to go running off to another European alliance like NATO or the EU, but they can't offer anything to Ukraine that would honestly entice Ukrainians to take Russia back as a political/economic partner. So instead, Russia (Putin) will try to "encourage" their relationship by force, not caring that such bullying behavior will only drive Ukrainians more towards joining Western Europe against Russia.

Ukraine is never going to give in to Russia's demands here, they will not agree to any deal absolutely barring them from even thinking about joining NATO. They dare not. Even the mere threat of joining NATO is the only leverage Ukraine has against outright invasion and occupation. Paradox: Every move Russia makes to stop Ukraine from joining NATO only pushes Ukraine further towards joining NATO.

It's that fear of NATO - how Putin and his lackeys see that western alliance as a bulwark against Russian dreams of rebirthing their empire - that keeps Russia from just admitting to themselves they screwed up because it's been two years of failure after failure. I noted this five days in:

What Putin got was a bloody nose, figurately speaking. 

Literally, five days into his ordering the invasion of Ukraine, what Putin has is an international PR nightmare, near-global condemnation of his war, escalating sanctions and lockdowns of every financial avenue Russia has - including cutting off banks from SWIFT, a transactional process that can arguably block the Russian citizenry and businesses from their own accounts - not to mention a tanking stock market, and nothing resembling a cakewalk into Kyiv to set up his puppet state.

Putin's rival Zelensky failed to flee the capital when the invasion started, instead using his media savvy to go onto social media and make a personal call to arms to every Ukrainian to stop the Russians approaching their major cities. Reported when asked by western powers to evacuate for his own safety, Zelensky answered "I need ammunition, not a ride." Sonofabitch (and I mean this in a cool way) is getting comparisons to freaking Winston Churchill, for God's sake...

Putin has already shot his load, as it were. Making a grand pronouncement that Ukraine wasn't even a real country and that he was going to make them all happy Russians again, only to have nearly every Ukrainian grab a rifle and fight back. Even grandmothers were tossing sunflower seeds at Russian troops cursing that their bodies will be fertilizer for the flowers that will bloom. 

Putin has already flexed his nation's military might, only to face the possibility that he's going to have to retreat, never a good look for a bullying autocrat. Or worse, double down on the troops and weaponry (that he may not have) and try to overwhelm Ukrainian resistance by sheer numbers, risking the growing anti-war sentiment of the citizenry at home...

If there has been any noticeable anti-war sentiment - most of Russian media and local police have clamped down on any overt sign of unrest - it's been from the young Russian men savvy enough to skedaddle - yes still love that word - when they had the chance:

Putin is doubling down on making this conscription (don't call it a mobilization like it's a good thing, this is forced military servitude) because Ukraine's recent success shredded much of the ground forces he had there and he needs as many bodies as possible to hold onto whatever he can claim. As mentioned earlier, Putin is also forcing the occupied regions of southern Ukraine - the Donbas in particular - to "vote" on a rigged "annexation" so that Russia can claim to the world that it's Ukraine invading Russia, even though most other nations would never recognize such a brazenly illegal move.

Putin is relying on the one last resource he can utilize in his war to conquer Ukraine: Manpower. Russia's overall population at 143 million is 100 million more than Ukraine's (43 million), and just on simple numbers in a slogfest Russia should be able to outlast Ukraine to conquer a bloodied landscape.

But in his desperation, Putin is overvaluing quantity over quality of armies. By all reports, Russia's armed forces are poorly trained, poorly motivated, poorly supplied... and everything that's happened since this February has proven how poor Russia's performance has been in a straight-up fight with an army that can fight back. While Putin is emphasizing in conscripting men with previous military experience, there's no guarantee those men have good enough experience in the first place, and there's no sign of them having the discipline and motivation to perform any better than the first wave of troops Putin sent in. Most military experts in the West argue that Putin needs to train his conscripts, which would take months... and Putin doesn't have months at this rate. He will send raw untrained victims to the front lines and hope to Zerg Rush Ukrainian forces by sheer attrition...

It is that - combined with Putin's illegal use of artillery and drone attacks on Ukrainian civilian populations - sole advantage of bodies for the meat grinder that has prolonged this war.

Well, there's actually a second advantage Putin is wielding against Ukraine to prolong this war: A willing faction of Republicans in Congress - bowing not just to trump's demand they appease his puppetmaster Putin, but playing their own game of obstructing Biden to make him look weak - blocking all financial and supply aid to Ukraine as they need it most. The Western European nations making up most of NATO have been providing military aid here and there - surplus of tanks and transports and weapons - but without the military and financial might of the U.S. getting to them, Ukrainian front line forces are running out of ammo.

Without that help, Ukraine will enter its third year of survival at their most vulnerable with Putin willing to prolong the attrition until he can be certain of complete victory, which would be if trump steals the electoral results this November. If that happens, trump's threats to drive the U.S. out of NATO become fact, and NATO is suddenly faced with an emboldened Russian Empire eager to reclaim Eastern Europe and use their influence on internal Far Right political factions to destabilize whatever's left.

There's a lot of things we as American citizens can do to provide help to Ukraine. Urging President Biden to transfer the millions in seized Russian assets to fund Ukraine's war effort is one. Stopping trump this November is the other step. For the love of Ukraine, our European allies, and a true end to Russian aggression/war, DO NOT VOTE REPUBLICAN.

Slava Ukraini!