Ukraine Punching Russia - And Putin - Where It Hurts

Holy forking shirtballs, this is happening right now in the Russian-Ukrainian War (via Institute for the Study of War): 

Ukrainian cross-border mechanized offensive operations into Kursk Oblast that began on August 6 are continuing as part of a Ukrainian operational effort within Russian territory. ISW will not offer assessments about the intent of this Ukrainian operation in order to avoid compromising Ukrainian operational security. ISW will not make forecasts about what Ukrainian forces might or might not do or where or when they might do it. ISW will continue to map, track, and evaluate operations as they unfold but will not offer insight into Ukrainian planning, tactics, or techniques. ISW is not prepared to map control of terrain within Russia at this time and will instead map observed events associated with the Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory as well the maximalist extent of claims and unverified reports about Ukrainian advances. Maximalist claims and unverified reports about Ukrainian advances within Russia do not represent territory that ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces have seized or control. Inferring predictions about Ukrainian operations from ISW maps and assessments that do not explicitly offer such predictions is inappropriate and not in accord with their intended use.

Since August 6th, Ukraine started a counter-offensive into Russia itself - going into the Kursk Oblast bordering their nation - that has achieved stunning results 48 hours later. Here's a map from the ISW report:

More accurate than Risk, what what.

The fun thing about Kursk? It's the region right between Ukraine and Moscow. 

Where Putin has put Ukraine on the defensive since 2014 - don't forget, this all started with Putin seizing Crimea back then - and then creating a bloodied stalemate along the southeastern part (Donbas) of Ukraine over the last two years, this is the first true military offensive that Ukraine has put together. That counter-offensive in autumn of 2022 that reclaimed most of eastern Ukraine to them only went as far as the Russian border. Now they've crossed that border, and they've exposed a soft underbelly of how fragile Russia's own defensive capabilities are:

Russian milbloggers claimed that small Ukrainian armored groups are advancing further into the Russian rear and bypassing Russian fortifications before engaging Russian forces and then withdrawing from the engagements without attempting to consolidate control over their furthest advances. Russian milbloggers noted that the prevalence of these armored groups is leading to conflicting reporting because Ukrainian forces are able to quickly engage Russian forces near a settlement and then withdraw from the area. Ukrainian forces appear to be able to use these small armored groups to conduct assaults past the engagement line due to the low density of Russian personnel in the border areas of Kursk Oblast. Larger Ukrainian units are reportedly operating in areas of Kursk Oblast closer to the international border and are reportedly consolidating and fortifying some positions...

A lot of this echoes what happened last year when the Wagner mercenary forces mutinied against Putin's mishandling of the war effort. If I can recall what I wrote then:

Throughout this crisis, Russia's own military failed to respond in full against a "turncoat" private army, highlighting the low morale and poor discipline plaguing the regular forces. Prigozhin made faster advancements marching into Russia within 24 hours where it took him and his Wagner brigades over three months to achieve anything at Bakhmut.

It looks like Zelensky and his generals paid attention to what Prigozhin did - before he wimped out, surrendered to Putin, and got himself and others killed on his next plane flight - and realized how vulnerable Russia itself was to a military offensive. With Putin hellbent on seizing as much of Ukraine as possible before he's forced to into any ceasefire - so he can claim all that territory is legally Russia, and maintain a foothold he can use to invade the rest of Ukraine in the future - most of Russia's military might is stuck in the Donbas front lines.

While Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine, they're doing it slowly due to their draining resources. Putin's been able to turn it into a meatgrinder in the hopes of wearing down the defenses and whittle away Ukraine's own limited ammo and armaments. The US and NATO are NOT doing enough to supply Ukraine out of fears of escalation (something frustrating the hell out of policy experts like Adam L. Silverman).

But now it's looking like Ukraine had been intentionally holding back on their arms and armaments the last several months to pull off this Kursk offensive. And it's looking like - at least to this armchair general colonel major okay the highest rank I ever got was library branch manager - the Ukrainians are trying to catch the Russians in a risky Either-Or decision: 

1) Redeploy any and all reserves - especially armored units and air support - away from supporting the Donbas offensives, which would weaken their offensive capabilities and give Ukrainian forces there a chance to punch through their defenses, taking away Putin's land grabs, or

2) Refocus more military effort into Donbas - where Ukrainian defenses are already pitched in and can make it too costly - to take more territory (and force Zelensky to at last relent), and hope that the mostly untrained and undersupplied conscript forces in Russia itself can set up effective defenses to halt any advances that would be politically damaging (like say Ukrainian tanks rolling in plain sight up the Kremlin driveway in Moscow itself) to Putin.

Already three days into the Kursk Offensive, and the Ukrainian forces have beaten back most of the Russian counterattacks with ease. Russia couldn't do any of the heavy defensive fortifications they made in Donbas - you can't place landmines in your own country, after all - and they're relying on recently drafted conscripts - since this April - to work up the nerve to charge into a Ukrainian position. Whatever armored capabilities Russia has, their failures to fight back - at the moment - are highlighting the likelihood Russia's military has almost nothing left to defend with.

If I can go back to Silverman at Balloon Juice for a minute about the current (well, last night) situation regarding all of this:

The more I think about it, the more I think the second answer – that the Ukrainians are trying to demonstrate to the Biden administration, as well everyone else, that the emperor – Putin – has no clothes. That no matter what red lines he declares, no matter what he says he’ll do if they’re breached, such as tactically using nukes during a conventional war, these are just agitprop and hollow threats in order to establish reflexive control over the leaders of his adversaries in order to give himself a preemptive veto in their decision-making process. I also think they have studied Prigozhin’s aborted revolt from a little over a year ago, how Putin personally responded, and how Russia’s military, security services, and law enforcement were unable to do anything to actually stop his Wagner mercenaries. I think they have a very, very, very good understanding of what Russia is not able to do to actually defend itself within its own borders and is exploiting those weaknesses...

There is every likelihood that Ukraine is over-extending their own military with this offensive - after all, they're not making incursions into other Russian oblasts (not yet) - although there are signs they are setting up strong defensive positions at key locations inside Kursk if/when their attack forces need to pull back. Thing is with this operation Ukraine is clearly proving they know what they're doing and how to pull it off, whereas Russia is still swinging blindly to land any punches they think they can make.

Silverman is right in that Zelensky and his government are proving how much of a feeble paper tiger Russia truly is: That past the threat of launching nuclear reprisals, there's nothing left behind Russia except bluster. And even the threat of nukes seems ludicrous because A) Putin dare not use them in Ukraine or Eastern Europe due to literal fallout returning to Russia itself and B) going nuclear against the US and Europe period is basically summoning a full apocalypse out of sheer spite because it will leave all of Earth a radioactive dust-ball.

Biden - and NATO - needs to be doing more for Ukraine. They need more tanks, more ammo, more body armor, more resources. They need more Patriots and anti-missile systems to stop Putin's ongoing attack on civilian populations (the one thing Putin will never stop doing, because he's a genocidal sadist). And Ukraine needs all that yesterday.

Today, Ukraine is kicking ass. The western powers need to pony up to help Ukraine kick Putin's ass tomorrow. And keep aiding Ukraine until Putin and his ilk are all gone from power.