So the Eternal Shitgibbon ahem Dark Lord is returning, greedier and more terrible than before, and there's not so much panic as there is despair and regret among the Center-Left people I hang out with. I know I'm feeling it, the utter dread of knowing trump - a court-convicted felon, a certified sex offender - is getting back into a White House with Presidential powers now more far-reaching than he wielded last time.
Meaning things after January 20th are going to get worse than what we saw from 2017 to 2020. Which - given the racism, the cruelty, and the greedy self-glorification - was pretty bad.
I could game out what I expect to see out of the Cruelty Is Policy 2.0 administration trump is about to unleash. But I got to admit when I attempt these "What If" guessing games, I'm really not making the correct predictions. The last couple of "What Ifs" were actually heart-breaking.
So if I'm going to do a "What If" for trump's second term of office, I'm going to have to recognize that - given how sadistic and greedy the upcoming policies we already know is coming - whatever I'm guessing at is likely going to be worse.
I mean, it's already a given that trump will use his inauguration speech to rage through his grievances. The media is already reporting how he's going to issue Executive Orders to begin mass deportations, to declare Mexican drug cartels as terrorists so he can deploy the military against them, to begin purging the civil service through Schedule F rules to decimate the federal agencies, pardoning every person convicted in the January 6th insurrection, and even change the rules on electric vehicles (which benefits his BFF Elon Musk).
But let's suppose the "What If" has trump going full Dictator on Day One like he threatened to do during the campaign. What if trump goes completely overboard with the abuse of executive power?
Let's say trump during his speech gives the order to arrest every Democratic figure on the stage with him - Biden, Obama, both Bill and Hillary Clinton, any other congressional leader - on "charges" that they "conspired to steal" the 2020 Election from him. Don't forget, that's still a serious thorn in his pride as he can never admit he loses at anything. Most of the punditry and power players in DC knows he's going to unleash "his" Justice Department on those who slighted, indicted, and convicted him. But what if he does it right there, Day One, ordering the Secret Service and other law enforcement at the inauguration to drag the Democratic leaders off to jail cells?
We know trump wants to implement massive tariffs on our major trading partners. While his handlers are trying to talk him into a slow incremental process at 5 percent (which would still cause serious havoc), trump is likely eager to jump right at the 15 percent across-the-board hike just to show how tough he is on trade.
We know the mass deportations and round-ups of "illegals" are going to begin the second he gives the order - they're already telling us which city (Chicago) so the media can show up and let them get their publicity while they harass and attack thousands of people and families - but we shouldn't expect ICE or any of trump's eager brownshirts to go by proper procedure. We're going to see bloody faces and bodies as a show of force. We're going to see a lot of innocent people who aren't "illegals" - a lot of Puerto Ricans are going to have a rough week - get caught in the chaotic dragnets.
Worse, don't be surprised if the migrant hunters go after the local schools instead of workplaces. trump is going to issue Executive Orders removing the Birthright Citizenship protections. They're going to aim for loopholes so they can "detain" any Latino or dark-skinned child even if they were genuinely born in the United States and gained their citizenship (even children who have one parent who IS a natural citizen will get targeted). Remember everybody: Cruelty Is the Point with trump's anti-immigrant crusade and they WILL go after kids. It may be unconstitutional right now, but don't be surprised if trump gets this before his puppets on the Supreme Court and gets them to uphold the loopholes as "legal."
I wouldn't even be surprised if trump declares we're in a "state of war" with Mexico concerning the border, which would excuse his attempt to create a national emergency and grant himself more power. It would let him - through the Joint Chiefs - seize control of every National Guard in every state including the Democratic-controlled ones, and use them to fill the logistical - manpower and firepower - holes in the deportation plans.
If trump declares that national emergency, he could go to Congress and get his Republican lackeys to pass legislation activating the draft (Selective Service): It will allow him to quickly fill the military ranks to use in his deportation schemes, and also shake the stick even harder at Mexico to get them to bend the knee to trump. Thing is, trump could try to ignore Congress altogether and set up his own draft using his own parameters to pick and choose who gets drafted. It may be against the law, but he'll certainly try it because he's testing the limits of "official acts" of the presidency. What he'll set up will be no lottery, no physical or educational requirements, no psych evals: A way to bring in a lot of the Proud Boy and white supremacist extremists who'd otherwise get filtered out of the military.
And because trump is fully "anti-woke" - he opposes racial diversity in hiring practices - he's going to abuse his office to purge our own military of what he'll call "DEI" hires of Black and Latino (and maybe even women) officers and undo everything we've done since Truman to make our armed forces a truly American - and honestly diverse - institution. he's going to turn our military into an overpowered national police force for which it wasn't designed to do, while crippling the chain of command during all of these adjustments.
Oh, and he's going to insist on the military and every civil servant to swear a new oath of loyalty, not to the United States or the Constitution. he's going to insist they swear loyalty to himself.
The result of all this madness? Arguably within the first week of trump's takeover?
Obviously, the lawsuits from various civil rights groups to counter trump's efforts. They will try to delay the immediate effects of trump's cruelty, but there's no guarantee they'll succeed in a legal system now skewed to trump's will.
We will see serious damage to our federal bureaucracy and in ways that will make service to the public even worse. trump's purge of agencies will leave behind those unqualified at their jobs or overwhelmed by the workload expanding as more people are fired (or quit in disgust). In terms of the military, gutting the officer corps could also trigger mass resignations, disrupting the chain of command even more. I doubt trump and his Far Right buddies will care, though.
The more interesting consequences will be with the economy, which was chugging along pretty well under Biden. trump's efforts to enact tariffs will create shock among investors and cause markets to crash - much like they did during trump's first round of tariffs - all the while forcing prices to go up, because those tariffs will both be an extra tax on the citizenry as well as create supply chain shortages making goods more expensive. Not to mention the tariffs will trigger trade wars on a greater scale than we saw earlier, because the other nations - Canada, Mexico, and China in particular - are not exactly keen on dancing to trump's tune.
trump's efforts to create a national emergency over immigration will trigger international outrage, especially if trump tries to start a border war with Mexico. Considering how trump is panicking Europe over his obsession with buying annexing Greenland from Denmark, we're going to find ourselves with few allies.
trump's also threatening to send troops to the Panama Canal to retake it, arguing that China is getting too influential with that nation (but more than likely he's angry with them for shutting down his properties there). If he pushes too hard, we're going to witness most of Central and South America - and other global powers affected by trade through the Canal - retaliate however they can. trump is rattling his sabers at everyone (except Russia) and he's going to make more enemies that are willing and able to push back.
And speaking of Russia: trump is likely going to do everything he can to lift the massive economic sanctions to allow Putin more freedom to attack Ukraine even harder. I don't buy the public narrative that he'll issue more sanctions on Russian oil. he's too beholden to Putin to play the tough guy. There may be foreign policy experts - and a sizable number of Republican congresscritters - who are pro-Ukrainian and hopeful that success on this front would break Russia's corrupt influence across most of the planet. But trump doesn't care about experts, he only cares about getting adoration from those he views as his equals (the rich and the corrupt).
So by next Saturday: expect Wall Street to be engulfed in flames, with half of the Armed Forces seriously considering a coup to overthrow trump and the Republican Congress before they fire a third of their generals and admirals, while Mexico and Canada agree to a mutual self-defense pact escalating the chance of a two-front war along America's borders. All the while half our nation's sheriffs departments and National Guardsmen overwhelmed chasing after migrant workers instead of doing their normal duties in their communities.
That's what I'm expecting. I don't believe I am over-exaggerating. trump and his wingnut allies really want to disrupt everything they can so they can profit from the chaos.
Don't forget: 77 million of you voted for his madness to drive our nation over the cliffs. Goddamn you.
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