ahem. I'll start over.
It's Pi Day.
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
Off-Topic: PI DAY
March 14th translates to 3.14 which are the first three numbers in pi, an irrational number that in theory goes on forever because it defines the curvature of a circle, which has no corner, meaning it keeps getting smoother and smoother and smoother but never stopping as you zoom into the infinite of nanospace and...
ahem. I'll start over.
It's Pi Day.
MMMMMMMMM PI.
ahem. I'll start over.
It's Pi Day.
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Acts of War
This morning has been all abuzz over the firing of Rex Tillerson, Worst Secretary of State (via the Atlantic).
But WHY did Tillerson fall out of Presidential favor? Was it just the "trump's a moron" moment of candid talk? Was it that Tillerson wasn't working fast enough to dismantle the entire State Department?
No, Tillerson finally fell out of favor because he did the one thing trump will never allow: Tillerson accused the Russians of being naughty. Back to the Atlantic and to David Frum:
What Frum is getting at: trump fired Tillerson because trump didn't want Russia accused of anything.
The backstory: There was a recent attack on an ex-Russian spy who just happened to be someone who was a likely source for the Steele Dossier, which just happened to catalog a lot of unsavory connections between trump, the Russian mob, and Putin. That attack, using a Russian-type nerve agent, has placed that agent Sergi Skripal and his daughter Yulia at death's door AND caused serious health concerns to the police and local civilians who were in contact with the victims and the possible attack site(s).
As a result, Prime Minister May has directly challenged Russia to answer for the attack within the next two-three days, and openly called on allies - ahem, the U.S. - to join in her condemnation of Russia's violation of British sovereignty.
trump's answer: Nothing. At least this morning, when he gave this tepid response that Frum found insulting:
trump doesn't want to act - much in the same reason he doesn't want to enforce the Congressional sanctions just passed last year, much in the same reason he will never speak ill of Putin - because it is clear now trump owes Russia his entire current status and (presumed) wealth.
All of the financial history being uncovered of trump's business ties, and possible money laundering, and personal subservience to people who may have blackmailed/extorted trump into their puppet. It all explains trump's refusal to pick a side in the growing war between Putin and Western democracies.
Look at what Putin is doing: there is case after case of Russian hacking and social media interference in election after election, and he is not stopping. Putin wants to weaken every NATO nation he can to make way for him to reclaim Russian dominance in Eastern Europe and elsewhere. He wants all sanctions against him and his criminal cronies lifted. He wants to silence all critics using the Stalin Method of "No Man No Problem": the body count has been noticed for years, and the smug SOB just pulled ANOTHER possible assassination on another Russian on British soil this afternoon.
Putin wants to fuck the rest of the world.
And trump is willing to help him do it.
What Putin is doing, and wants to keep doing, violates multiple nations' sovereign rights, and threaten their very existences. He may not be sending in tanks and troops, but he IS attacking these nations through one of the very things that should be held sacrosanct: their right and power to vote for their own leaders.
Putin is at war with the rest of the world. When the hell is the rest of the world going to do something about it?
Because trump's made it clear he's not doing a damn thing to stop Putin.
the damn traitor.
Tillerson was, as is now recognized even by those who put him there, a disaster. As with most spectacular Washington flame-outs, his failures stem not from stupidity or general incompetence, but from a specific set of disabilities... He was a debacle, pure and simple, the worst secretary of state in living memory (and there has been serious competition) not because of ineptitude, but because of the semi-intentional demolition job he was doing on his own department even as he fell out of presidential favor...
But WHY did Tillerson fall out of Presidential favor? Was it just the "trump's a moron" moment of candid talk? Was it that Tillerson wasn't working fast enough to dismantle the entire State Department?
No, Tillerson finally fell out of favor because he did the one thing trump will never allow: Tillerson accused the Russians of being naughty. Back to the Atlantic and to David Frum:
The White House’s account of the Tillerson firing collapsed within minutes... Senior administration officials told outlets including The Washington Post and CNN that Tillerson had been told he would be dismissed on Friday, March 9... Within the hour, the State Department issued a statement insisting that Tillerson “had every intention of remaining” and “did not speak to the President this morning and is unaware of the reason.” (as a side note Frum hadn't mentioned, but trump went and first the State Department aide who contradicted the White House's timeline on the firing)
...A lot turns on that timing. On March 12, Tillerson had backed the British government’s accusation that Russia was culpable for a nerve-agent attack on United Kingdom soil. If Tillerson had been fired March 9, then his words of support for Britain could not explain his firing three days before. But if the White House was lying about the timing, it could be lying about the motive.
And since it now seems all but certain that the White House was lying about the timing, it looks more probable that it was lying about the motive too...
What Frum is getting at: trump fired Tillerson because trump didn't want Russia accused of anything.
The backstory: There was a recent attack on an ex-Russian spy who just happened to be someone who was a likely source for the Steele Dossier, which just happened to catalog a lot of unsavory connections between trump, the Russian mob, and Putin. That attack, using a Russian-type nerve agent, has placed that agent Sergi Skripal and his daughter Yulia at death's door AND caused serious health concerns to the police and local civilians who were in contact with the victims and the possible attack site(s).
As a result, Prime Minister May has directly challenged Russia to answer for the attack within the next two-three days, and openly called on allies - ahem, the U.S. - to join in her condemnation of Russia's violation of British sovereignty.
trump's answer: Nothing. At least this morning, when he gave this tepid response that Frum found insulting:
That suspicion was accelerated by the president’s words to the White House press corps before stepping aboard Marine One:
“As soon as we get the facts straight, if we agree with them, we will condemn Russia or whoever it may be.”
That is not support for Britain. It is the direct opposite.
Britain and the United States share intelligence information fully, freely, and seamlessly. It’s inconceivable that the U.S. government has not already seen all the information that Theresa May saw before she rose in the House of Commons to accuse Russia.
If the U.S. government had a serious concern about the reliability of that information, it would have expressed that concern directly and privately to the U.K. government before May spoke. But the U.S. had no such concern—that’s why the now-fired secretary of state and the U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom both endorsed May’s words. When Trump raises doubts about the facts, about American agreement with its British ally, about the accuracy of the British accusation against Russia, Trump is not expressing good-faith uncertainty about imperfect information. Trump is rejecting the consensus view of the U.K. and U.S. intelligence communities about an act of Russian aggression—and, if his past behavior is any indication, preparing the way for his own determination to do nothing...
trump doesn't want to act - much in the same reason he doesn't want to enforce the Congressional sanctions just passed last year, much in the same reason he will never speak ill of Putin - because it is clear now trump owes Russia his entire current status and (presumed) wealth.
All of the financial history being uncovered of trump's business ties, and possible money laundering, and personal subservience to people who may have blackmailed/extorted trump into their puppet. It all explains trump's refusal to pick a side in the growing war between Putin and Western democracies.
Look at what Putin is doing: there is case after case of Russian hacking and social media interference in election after election, and he is not stopping. Putin wants to weaken every NATO nation he can to make way for him to reclaim Russian dominance in Eastern Europe and elsewhere. He wants all sanctions against him and his criminal cronies lifted. He wants to silence all critics using the Stalin Method of "No Man No Problem": the body count has been noticed for years, and the smug SOB just pulled ANOTHER possible assassination on another Russian on British soil this afternoon.
Putin wants to fuck the rest of the world.
And trump is willing to help him do it.
What Putin is doing, and wants to keep doing, violates multiple nations' sovereign rights, and threaten their very existences. He may not be sending in tanks and troops, but he IS attacking these nations through one of the very things that should be held sacrosanct: their right and power to vote for their own leaders.
Putin is at war with the rest of the world. When the hell is the rest of the world going to do something about it?
Because trump's made it clear he's not doing a damn thing to stop Putin.
the damn traitor.
Monday, March 12, 2018
Intelligence Versus Interference
Earlier today, the House Intelligence Committee wrapped up in as loosely a form as possible their "investigation" into the likelihood that Russia tampered with our 2016 elections, that Russia worked with trump's campaign, and that Russia pretty much owns trump and the Republican Party at this point.
Essentially, they found "no collusion" and then tied blindfolds around their own eyes, stuck their fingers into their ears, and started singing loudly and off-key LALALALALAA in order to pretend they didn't see or hear anything.
As Adam L. Silverman notes over at Balloon-Juice, this is all kinda BS:
Silverman proceeds to highlight each development of Mueller's investigation - go to that link and read his stuff, please and thank you, and concludes:
Nunes and his Congressional buddies are trying to give trump the excuse to force the FBI and the DOJ to shut down their own investigation. Not because Mueller and his team are wasting money, or pursuing any political agenda. It's because Mueller is getting close to uncovering enough proof that can stand up in court that trump is guilty at the very least on Obstruction, which would place Republicans in Congress on the hook for pursuing that as required by their Oaths of office to uphold and defend the Constitution. Which is something Republicans do not want to do.
What is happening here are two elements of our current political dilemma.
We have a civil service running our National Security / Intelligence Community who have come across a long-running effort (since 2014 as publicly confirmed) by a foreign power (Russia) to meddle in our nation's electoral process, and to help a useful ally in trump into the White House to serve Russia's interests (above all ending Obama-issued sanctions). These are the ones who kept insisting on a full investigation leading up to Mueller's appointment as Special Counsel, and are the ones bringing before grand juries more proof of Russian ties to select trump campaign members.
But we also have a political party (Republicans) in control of all three major branches of Federal Government, who have garnered their majority controls despite the fact they're a minority (that is, fewer people voted for) party keeping control through gerrymandering, voter suppression, and questionable tactics. The Republicans do not want any investigating because the facts will disrupt their grand Narrative that they won on the merits. They also don't want to get forced to decide on the facts to go directly against trump, because their angry voter base is clearly on trump's side and will shred them in these upcoming Midterms.
In short, where Mueller is working with intelligence in his investigations, the Republican Congress preferred to run interference and cover their own party's collective (and trump-owned) ass.
How is this going to play out?
Right now, trump has a weapon he can use to justify going after Deputy AG Rosenstein and shut down Mueller before his grand juries can indict more of trump's people (including his own family and himself).
But trump does so at the risk of alienating the entire Federal government tasked with our nation's protection. Every Intel agency from the FBI to the CIA and the NSA (about 17 in all) are going to know trump is only doing this to cover his own ass, because they're already finding that Russia did mess with our elections and that trump profits from dealing with Russia in ways that would point to money laundering, fraud, and mayhaps treason. Our nation's Intel people have already found evidence for grand juries to indict the likes of Manafort and Gates (enough to get Gates to flip and plead out).
What do you think the FBI and CIA and NSA and the other Intel people are going to do if the main suspect in their ongoing investigations tries to shut down said investigations?
Any argument trump and his enablers dream up - and some they've already floated, that there's a conspiracy among the Intelligence Community to get revenge in Hillary or Obama's name - would run into the simple proof that most agents and investigators are sworn to their jobs, not to any party affiliation (granted, there are exceptions but they are few). If an FBI agent is investigating the activities of a Russian hacker, then that agent is going to dig as far as he can to find enough evidence to make arrests or otherwise stop the hacker's criminal acts. If the CIA is getting intel from friendly nations like the Dutch that Russia is hacking into our shit, they are going to treat that intel seriously.
If there is any bias in this story, it's entirely on the side of the Republicans who do not want evidence that their "great victories and moral leadership" are all propped up by Russian-backed crimes.
If the Republicans think they can silence our entire Intelligence branch of Federal government, they are going to end up crushing a vital part of our government: the part that's working 24/7 to stop the next terror strike, the part that's trying to prevent foreign powers from corrupting or destroying our nation.
Today's move proves that the Republican Party will rather protect trump and his Russian puppetmaster instead of standing for the United States.
Not an intelligent move at all.
Essentially, they found "no collusion" and then tied blindfolds around their own eyes, stuck their fingers into their ears, and started singing loudly and off-key LALALALALAA in order to pretend they didn't see or hear anything.
As Adam L. Silverman notes over at Balloon-Juice, this is all kinda BS:
...The one page summary is as well written as the infamous Nunes memo and the Republican members of the committee can’t keep their talking points, let alone their stories, straight in their news media appearances trying to explain what they’ve done, why they did it, and what it means. There is a simple reason for this, which is that several pieces of information regarding what Special Counselor Mueller is doing have broken since the end of last week and over the weekend. And it clearly spooked them...
Silverman proceeds to highlight each development of Mueller's investigation - go to that link and read his stuff, please and thank you, and concludes:
...They are clearly scared and felt the need to change the narrative. This won’t stop Special Counsel Mueller and his investigation. It will, however, provide the Fox News talking heads, the talk radio folks, the Republicans and conservatives on contributor contracts for the broadcast and cable news networks, conservative media outlets ranging from the mainstream (whatever that means anymore) all the way out to the extreme, authoritarian right with a new narrative to pitch. That Congress found no collusion, so it is well passed time for Bob Mueller to wrap it up...
Nunes and his Congressional buddies are trying to give trump the excuse to force the FBI and the DOJ to shut down their own investigation. Not because Mueller and his team are wasting money, or pursuing any political agenda. It's because Mueller is getting close to uncovering enough proof that can stand up in court that trump is guilty at the very least on Obstruction, which would place Republicans in Congress on the hook for pursuing that as required by their Oaths of office to uphold and defend the Constitution. Which is something Republicans do not want to do.
What is happening here are two elements of our current political dilemma.
We have a civil service running our National Security / Intelligence Community who have come across a long-running effort (since 2014 as publicly confirmed) by a foreign power (Russia) to meddle in our nation's electoral process, and to help a useful ally in trump into the White House to serve Russia's interests (above all ending Obama-issued sanctions). These are the ones who kept insisting on a full investigation leading up to Mueller's appointment as Special Counsel, and are the ones bringing before grand juries more proof of Russian ties to select trump campaign members.
But we also have a political party (Republicans) in control of all three major branches of Federal Government, who have garnered their majority controls despite the fact they're a minority (that is, fewer people voted for) party keeping control through gerrymandering, voter suppression, and questionable tactics. The Republicans do not want any investigating because the facts will disrupt their grand Narrative that they won on the merits. They also don't want to get forced to decide on the facts to go directly against trump, because their angry voter base is clearly on trump's side and will shred them in these upcoming Midterms.
In short, where Mueller is working with intelligence in his investigations, the Republican Congress preferred to run interference and cover their own party's collective (and trump-owned) ass.
How is this going to play out?
Right now, trump has a weapon he can use to justify going after Deputy AG Rosenstein and shut down Mueller before his grand juries can indict more of trump's people (including his own family and himself).
But trump does so at the risk of alienating the entire Federal government tasked with our nation's protection. Every Intel agency from the FBI to the CIA and the NSA (about 17 in all) are going to know trump is only doing this to cover his own ass, because they're already finding that Russia did mess with our elections and that trump profits from dealing with Russia in ways that would point to money laundering, fraud, and mayhaps treason. Our nation's Intel people have already found evidence for grand juries to indict the likes of Manafort and Gates (enough to get Gates to flip and plead out).
What do you think the FBI and CIA and NSA and the other Intel people are going to do if the main suspect in their ongoing investigations tries to shut down said investigations?
Any argument trump and his enablers dream up - and some they've already floated, that there's a conspiracy among the Intelligence Community to get revenge in Hillary or Obama's name - would run into the simple proof that most agents and investigators are sworn to their jobs, not to any party affiliation (granted, there are exceptions but they are few). If an FBI agent is investigating the activities of a Russian hacker, then that agent is going to dig as far as he can to find enough evidence to make arrests or otherwise stop the hacker's criminal acts. If the CIA is getting intel from friendly nations like the Dutch that Russia is hacking into our shit, they are going to treat that intel seriously.
If there is any bias in this story, it's entirely on the side of the Republicans who do not want evidence that their "great victories and moral leadership" are all propped up by Russian-backed crimes.
If the Republicans think they can silence our entire Intelligence branch of Federal government, they are going to end up crushing a vital part of our government: the part that's working 24/7 to stop the next terror strike, the part that's trying to prevent foreign powers from corrupting or destroying our nation.
Today's move proves that the Republican Party will rather protect trump and his Russian puppetmaster instead of standing for the United States.
Not an intelligent move at all.
Tuesday, March 06, 2018
This Was Just Tuesday
So everyone was catching their breath after Monday's Meltdown of trump acolyte Sam "Hold My Beer" Nunberg. I mean, the craziness was all burned out by just that one whacko evening, right?
This was the Tuesday we had today:
This was just Tuesday.
To every Republican and trump Voter out there:
You were told. You were warned. There were signs everywhere that trump was a chaotic, uncontrollable sleazebucket. trump himself flew up huge red flags about his behavior and intentions.
And you suckers still voted for this. You're still defending this. All because you honestly thought Hillary was going to be WORSE?!
You honestly thought Hillary was going to be more corrupt. Can you honestly point to one thing that Hillary was actually found guilty of that would have suggested she was going to violate every ethical rule in the US Code?
You honestly thought Hillary was going to be a terrible boss. Was there ANY sign that Hillary was going to hire incompetent, unqualified people to key Cabinet and West Wing positions the way trump has? Did you expect Hillary was going to run a White House THIS CHAOTIC and understaffed and stressed out?
You honestly thought having Hillary in the White House was going to make us an international laughing stock? When you consider how trump is now viewed by even our own allies as untrustworthy and ill-informed on global and economic matters?
You all bought into trump because he promised you Heaven. Now you're finding out what every business partner trump had the last 40 years found out: The sonofabitch is a con artist who will bankrupt your ass in order to keep himself wealthy enough to pull his next scam.
You bought this bullshit. But we're all paying the goddamn bill for this.
And this was just Tuesday.
Gods help us.
This was the Tuesday we had today:
- trump himself starts off the day by tweeting "There is no Chaos, only great Energy!" in response to the growing media concern that his administration is about to see a tidal wave of fleeing staffers.
- The Office of Special Counsel found that Kellyanne Conway violated the Hatch Act - at least twice - when she spoke about last year's special election in Alabama. Thing is, any punishment for her action is addressed by trump himself, who may not be in a mood to suspend one of the few loyal staffers he's got left.
- Recent subpoena activity from Mueller's investigation revealed that his team detained a prominent United Arab Emirate advisor George Nader, who had a role in a key meeting between trump partners and Russian agents on the Seychelles Islands in January 2017. Whatever happened in that meeting could go towards proving trump and Russia had "arrangements" involving his presidency.
- Economic advisor Gary Cohn - one of the few administration figures still respected in the Beltway - is resigning over trump's impulsive push for steel and aluminum tariffs that will likely trigger a trade war.
- and the night is ending with reports that Stormy Daniels - the porn star who reportedly had an extramarital affair with trump just as Melania was giving birth to trump's son - is suing trump and trump's go-between (soon-to-be-disbarred lawyer Michael Cohen) to break the Nondisclosure Agreement simply because trump never signed it himself, and Stormy wants to sell a book covering their affair. The cherry on top is finding out trump's fake names he used to hide his involvement (David Dennison? DENNISON?! What the hell was wrong with "Ace Hardsteele"???)
This was just Tuesday.
To every Republican and trump Voter out there:
You were told. You were warned. There were signs everywhere that trump was a chaotic, uncontrollable sleazebucket. trump himself flew up huge red flags about his behavior and intentions.
And you suckers still voted for this. You're still defending this. All because you honestly thought Hillary was going to be WORSE?!
You honestly thought Hillary was going to be more corrupt. Can you honestly point to one thing that Hillary was actually found guilty of that would have suggested she was going to violate every ethical rule in the US Code?
You honestly thought Hillary was going to be a terrible boss. Was there ANY sign that Hillary was going to hire incompetent, unqualified people to key Cabinet and West Wing positions the way trump has? Did you expect Hillary was going to run a White House THIS CHAOTIC and understaffed and stressed out?
You honestly thought having Hillary in the White House was going to make us an international laughing stock? When you consider how trump is now viewed by even our own allies as untrustworthy and ill-informed on global and economic matters?
You all bought into trump because he promised you Heaven. Now you're finding out what every business partner trump had the last 40 years found out: The sonofabitch is a con artist who will bankrupt your ass in order to keep himself wealthy enough to pull his next scam.
You bought this bullshit. But we're all paying the goddamn bill for this.
And this was just Tuesday.
Gods help us.
More Schadenfreude This Week: Pharma Bro And the Wu Tang
A news blurb I missed while there was a very public meltdown of a tangential figure in the trump-Russia scandal: One of the most evil men in the world - "Pharma Bro" Martin Shkreli, who intentionally raised prices on rare meds - was facing his sentencing on earlier (unrelated) Securities fraud convictions during which... well, read the Verge article:
Priorities, people. Wu Tang ain't nuthin to fuck with.
When word got out in 2014 that Shkreli bought the unique album, it caused massive emotional turmoil across the cultural spectrum. It got so bad that a rumor got started that the album could only be rescued by a "morals clause" that would allow the Wu Tang members AND Bill Murray to pull off a heist to steal it back legally. While the story proved false, people wanted to see that happen, so much that an awesome movie could have been made about it:
When Pharma Bro got arrested on the fraud charges, the first thing every reporter asked was "did the feds rescue, uh seize the Wu Tang album?"
Well, now the judge is letting them.
The fate of Once Upon... is still up in the air, however:
One argument I would make is making the album a cataloged item in the Library of Congress, and then release it as downloadable MP3 free - remember, can't sell it - tracks off the LC website. Guarantee it will be the busiest our nation's catalog will ever get.
Pity is, we won't get that heist movie after all.
A federal court is forcing Martin Shkreli to hand over the Wu-Tang album Once Upon a Time in Shaolin to the government. Shkreli, a pharmaceuticals CEO who earned the nickname “Pharma Bro” for cavalierly hiking the price of an HIV treatment, was convicted of securities fraud in August 2017.
Though he has yet to be sentenced, a judge ruled today that Shkreli must forfeit $7.36 million, part of which will come from boring assets that no one cares about, like an E-trade brokerage account, a Picasso painting, and an unreleased Lil Wayne album. More importantly, he will be giving up the Wu-Tang album, which he bought at auction in 2014 for $2 million, which was, according to a 2015 statement by Wu-Tang’s RZA, “well before Martin Shrkeli’s [sic] business practices came to light.”
Priorities, people. Wu Tang ain't nuthin to fuck with.
When word got out in 2014 that Shkreli bought the unique album, it caused massive emotional turmoil across the cultural spectrum. It got so bad that a rumor got started that the album could only be rescued by a "morals clause" that would allow the Wu Tang members AND Bill Murray to pull off a heist to steal it back legally. While the story proved false, people wanted to see that happen, so much that an awesome movie could have been made about it:
When Pharma Bro got arrested on the fraud charges, the first thing every reporter asked was "did the feds rescue, uh seize the Wu Tang album?"
Well, now the judge is letting them.
The fate of Once Upon... is still up in the air, however:
By the terms of the sale, whoever owns the sole copy can legally do whatever they want with it, aside from releasing it commercially; there’s an 88-year ban on that. So the owner could hold exclusive listening parties or even release the album for free. It’s not clear whether the terms of the original purchase agreement can bind the government or any future buyer. Shkreli claimed to have already sold the album in September, but the buyer hasn’t stepped forward and it’s pretty unclear whether there was a hand-off. The government doesn’t care. It will take either the album or any proceeds.
Don’t expect anyone to be able to get the album through an FOIA or another kind of information request because that’s not how it works. It will likely be auctioned to the highest bidder, right next to all the yachts and Porsches and Rolexes seized from less-hated crime-doers...
One argument I would make is making the album a cataloged item in the Library of Congress, and then release it as downloadable MP3 free - remember, can't sell it - tracks off the LC website. Guarantee it will be the busiest our nation's catalog will ever get.
Pity is, we won't get that heist movie after all.
Monday, March 05, 2018
Schadenfreude Panama Style (SUCK IT trump)
I don't have the complete story on what's happening in Panama, but a hotel down there that had gotten trump's name on it has been in one hell of a fight trying to get trump evicted altogether from the place. THAT'S how toxic that Shitgibbon has become.
Here we go: Found some details...
Given trump's poor business history, I think Fintiklis is the more believable side of this fight.
There's been earlier reports that a lot of trump properties - save for the one in Washington DC where foreign agents book in order to curry favor with trump's administration - are going under because everyone else refuses to do business in those properties, use them for hotel stays, or any other activity.
I'm not surprised this is happening. I just hoped it was going to happen sooner.
A lot of places with trump's brand name all over it are going to be toxic, because nobody wants to get slimed by his toxic identity. We're going to see a lot of this kind of video clip via ABC News on Twitter:
OOOOOHHHHHHHHH THIS IS SOME TASTY TASTY SCHADENFREUDE.
In case of a trade war, I hope all the other nations do this to trump-owned properties.
Here we go: Found some details...
More than a dozen police wearing bulletproof vests entered the lobby of the Trump International Hotel in Panama on Monday morning and evicted the Trump Organization’s staff, a move that comes after weeks of simmering tensions over control of the property.
The Trump Organization manages the hotel in the 70-story tower overlooking the Punta Pacifica Peninsula and the new majority owner had gone to court in the U.S. and Panama to evict the company run by President Donald Trump’s sons. There were scuffles as police arrived to carry out the eviction, and Panamanian court officials were present...
The Trump Organization in court filings called the effort a “design to wrongfully seize control over the hotel property.”
“Rather than abide by the clear terms of the agreement he had signed, Mr. Fintiklis had been conspiring with others to remove Trump Hotels as manager and fire most, if not all, of its loyal and dedicated employees,” the Trump Organization said in a statement to the press. “Looking back, it is now apparent that Mr. Fintiklis, in flagrant violation of the commitments he had made, never had any intention of keeping his word and had been plotting a takeover and termination of Trump Hotels all along.”
Fintiklis has argued in documents filed in a U.S. court in Florida that the Trump Organization had mismanaged the property, causing occupancy levels “to collapse” and expenses to “bloat.”
“Operators gross incompetence and deficient sales organization stands in the way of [the] owner making any profit on its investment, all the while lining the [Trump Organization’s] pockets,” he alleged in a court filing.
Given trump's poor business history, I think Fintiklis is the more believable side of this fight.
There's been earlier reports that a lot of trump properties - save for the one in Washington DC where foreign agents book in order to curry favor with trump's administration - are going under because everyone else refuses to do business in those properties, use them for hotel stays, or any other activity.
I'm not surprised this is happening. I just hoped it was going to happen sooner.
A lot of places with trump's brand name all over it are going to be toxic, because nobody wants to get slimed by his toxic identity. We're going to see a lot of this kind of video clip via ABC News on Twitter:
OOOOOHHHHHHHHH THIS IS SOME TASTY TASTY SCHADENFREUDE.
In case of a trade war, I hope all the other nations do this to trump-owned properties.
Sunday, March 04, 2018
trump Thinks He Can Rule For Life. He Is Wrong AGAIN In So Many Different Ways
So this popped up last night on my Twitter feed (via Brian Stelter):
Insert hour-long screaming here.
This shouldn't be surprising. trump has talked about wanting to be a dictator well before 2015, and his admiration for the likes of Putin and Philippines President Duterte are on the record.
It's just never a good thing to read about trump. The threat of Cadet Bone Spurs staying in the White House well past his welcome would drive a teetotaler like me back to another attempt at drinking hard cider.
So, as the morning rises and I've had a chance to step back and assess the situation, how dire and real a threat is this?
Right off the bat, we need to point at the 22nd Amendment and go "Thank God Republicans HATED FDR That Much."
That part of the Constitution is turning out to be a life-saver. By capping Presidential terms to two, it forces a would-be dictator hoping to rule forever to vacate in 8 years no matter what. Granted, the amendment doesn't remove the guy from ALL power - trump could arguably go from a two-term stint to running for the US Senate and retaining control on a puppet front-man - but the system of checks and balances in place would severely crimp any attempt to rule from behind the curtains.
If trump wants to rule forever, he either has to get the 22nd Amendment abolished with a new amendment or ignore it altogether.
I've mentioned elsewhere, passing any amendment is tougher than expected. You need either a Constitutional Convention - unlikely, as both parties in Congress are terrified of how uncontrollable such a thing is - or you need two-thirds of BOTH Houses of Congress PLUS two-thirds (I think 38) of the states to approve it.
If trump thinks both Congress and the states will do this deed for him, he's beyond delusional and pretty much insane. By example, there was talk of repealing the 22nd for Ronald Reagan, who was popular enough among the voting base and across enough states to make it a feasible effort. There is no goddamn way trump is as popular as Reagan ever was. If trump tries to make this push, he is not going to find enough votes even among Republican Congresscritters (despite their fears of their own party base). And even state legislatures controlled by Republicans would recoil by the obvious move towards dictatorship this will be.
That means trump would have to ignore the amendment outright (or suspend all elections for as long as he can). This would be so unconstitutional a move - so much in violation of the Oath of Office to "faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of (his) ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States" - that the entire federal government should fall apart in opposition to him.
For trump to pull this off, he'd have to have the entire military on his side. While a President does serve as Commander-in-Chief, the military is not directly loyal to the President but instead to the Constitution. They have rules allowing them to refuse to follow any order they view as "illegal or in violation of" the Constitution. I do not think any of the Joint Chiefs - the heads of each military branch - owe trump any favors, especially something on this scale.
trump certainly won't have the Will of the People backing him either. he remains one of the most deeply unpopular (HATED) Presidents in modern polling. trump may have the support of the Far Right voting base - and definitely among the Neo-Nazis and racists he caters to - but those number in the thousands not millions. 62 million people may have voted for him, but a lot of them held their noses to do it (hating Hillary more at that moment). I would argue enough of them did not vote for him to become a dictator to rule outside of the law: If he tries this we would see a mass exodus of Republican voters from the party that would wreck its electoral chances far beyond any gerrymandering or vote-rigging the party could try.
trump's attempt would cause a schism among the states themselves. Solid Blue states like New York and California would declare his presidency illegal. Solid Red states would support him, but a number of them might not because even their local political ranks would fear the implications (trump would ignore the system of dividing powers between the states and the federal governments).
If trump tries to become Dictator-For-Life, he would have to do with a dwindling support staff. Not only is he losing people to Mueller's criminal probes into his 2016 campaign, Mueller is also digging into all of trump's business dealings now (pursuing just how deep Russia's ties to trump already were during that campaign) meaning trump's own family and his own financial base are threatened. Anybody who helped trump during 2016 is not going to be there to help him run in 2020 if he even tries for a second term: They certainly are not there to help him plan a coup.
On top of that, his administrative attrition is happening at a pace faster than any previous administration: he's not keeping anybody on long enough for them to learn the ropes, and he's failing at attracting the best and the brightest among even Republican supporters to fill major vacancies (nobody who's serious about a political career wants to work for him). A move of this scale requires a team of a large enough scale and political pull to clamp down on all threats, solve all contingencies, steamroll over any opposition. trump's West Wing can't even figure out the goddamn light switches, and he's down to maybe, what, thirty-one staffers in a White House that needs about three-hundred?
The only ones on the entire planet who would want trump to make himself Dictator are the nations who know his move would shatter us: Putin in particular would revel in the collapse of the world's most visible democratic republic. China and half the Middle East would kick back and pop the champagne bottles as well. However, I doubt any of them would actively involve themselves in such an attempt. Even Putin would rather sit on the sidelines and let us decimate ourselves, without the risk of committing resources that could compromise or trouble him. If trump thinks his buddy Vlad will help out, he better expect the only thing for the Russians to do is pat trump on the back and tell him "you go girl."
In short: trump has no political clout or muscle to pull this off. he could try, but it would be his final move.
It would be a messy one. trump could get some supporters in Congress to back him, but it would likely drive any remaining Centrist/Moderate Republicans out of the Party into a third party to oppose him. trump could get some of the military troops - the covert racists among the ranks - and a handful of officers buying into the wingnut mythos, but not enough of the high-ranking officers to make a coup attempt stick. trump could get local law enforcement to back him, but most of them are only in a position to uphold laws at their level (and city/county governments may not want to get involved either way).
The worst part would be the Far Right militia crowd who would rally to trump's effort to become dictator, who would lash out not at the federal government but at their local communities much like the SA Brownshirts would smash their way across 1930s Germany. Those militia may number about 50,000 or so hard-core members, but that would be just enough - and spread across enough states - to cause serious damage to millions of innocent American lives.
If trump tries to make himself Dictator, we will be deep into our Second Civil War, bloody and messy and leaving the United States tattered perhaps beyond repair.
Hurry up, Mueller. Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Insert hour-long screaming here.
This shouldn't be surprising. trump has talked about wanting to be a dictator well before 2015, and his admiration for the likes of Putin and Philippines President Duterte are on the record.
It's just never a good thing to read about trump. The threat of Cadet Bone Spurs staying in the White House well past his welcome would drive a teetotaler like me back to another attempt at drinking hard cider.
So, as the morning rises and I've had a chance to step back and assess the situation, how dire and real a threat is this?
Right off the bat, we need to point at the 22nd Amendment and go "Thank God Republicans HATED FDR That Much."
That part of the Constitution is turning out to be a life-saver. By capping Presidential terms to two, it forces a would-be dictator hoping to rule forever to vacate in 8 years no matter what. Granted, the amendment doesn't remove the guy from ALL power - trump could arguably go from a two-term stint to running for the US Senate and retaining control on a puppet front-man - but the system of checks and balances in place would severely crimp any attempt to rule from behind the curtains.
If trump wants to rule forever, he either has to get the 22nd Amendment abolished with a new amendment or ignore it altogether.
I've mentioned elsewhere, passing any amendment is tougher than expected. You need either a Constitutional Convention - unlikely, as both parties in Congress are terrified of how uncontrollable such a thing is - or you need two-thirds of BOTH Houses of Congress PLUS two-thirds (I think 38) of the states to approve it.
If trump thinks both Congress and the states will do this deed for him, he's beyond delusional and pretty much insane. By example, there was talk of repealing the 22nd for Ronald Reagan, who was popular enough among the voting base and across enough states to make it a feasible effort. There is no goddamn way trump is as popular as Reagan ever was. If trump tries to make this push, he is not going to find enough votes even among Republican Congresscritters (despite their fears of their own party base). And even state legislatures controlled by Republicans would recoil by the obvious move towards dictatorship this will be.
That means trump would have to ignore the amendment outright (or suspend all elections for as long as he can). This would be so unconstitutional a move - so much in violation of the Oath of Office to "faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of (his) ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States" - that the entire federal government should fall apart in opposition to him.
For trump to pull this off, he'd have to have the entire military on his side. While a President does serve as Commander-in-Chief, the military is not directly loyal to the President but instead to the Constitution. They have rules allowing them to refuse to follow any order they view as "illegal or in violation of" the Constitution. I do not think any of the Joint Chiefs - the heads of each military branch - owe trump any favors, especially something on this scale.
trump certainly won't have the Will of the People backing him either. he remains one of the most deeply unpopular (HATED) Presidents in modern polling. trump may have the support of the Far Right voting base - and definitely among the Neo-Nazis and racists he caters to - but those number in the thousands not millions. 62 million people may have voted for him, but a lot of them held their noses to do it (hating Hillary more at that moment). I would argue enough of them did not vote for him to become a dictator to rule outside of the law: If he tries this we would see a mass exodus of Republican voters from the party that would wreck its electoral chances far beyond any gerrymandering or vote-rigging the party could try.
trump's attempt would cause a schism among the states themselves. Solid Blue states like New York and California would declare his presidency illegal. Solid Red states would support him, but a number of them might not because even their local political ranks would fear the implications (trump would ignore the system of dividing powers between the states and the federal governments).
If trump tries to become Dictator-For-Life, he would have to do with a dwindling support staff. Not only is he losing people to Mueller's criminal probes into his 2016 campaign, Mueller is also digging into all of trump's business dealings now (pursuing just how deep Russia's ties to trump already were during that campaign) meaning trump's own family and his own financial base are threatened. Anybody who helped trump during 2016 is not going to be there to help him run in 2020 if he even tries for a second term: They certainly are not there to help him plan a coup.
On top of that, his administrative attrition is happening at a pace faster than any previous administration: he's not keeping anybody on long enough for them to learn the ropes, and he's failing at attracting the best and the brightest among even Republican supporters to fill major vacancies (nobody who's serious about a political career wants to work for him). A move of this scale requires a team of a large enough scale and political pull to clamp down on all threats, solve all contingencies, steamroll over any opposition. trump's West Wing can't even figure out the goddamn light switches, and he's down to maybe, what, thirty-one staffers in a White House that needs about three-hundred?
The only ones on the entire planet who would want trump to make himself Dictator are the nations who know his move would shatter us: Putin in particular would revel in the collapse of the world's most visible democratic republic. China and half the Middle East would kick back and pop the champagne bottles as well. However, I doubt any of them would actively involve themselves in such an attempt. Even Putin would rather sit on the sidelines and let us decimate ourselves, without the risk of committing resources that could compromise or trouble him. If trump thinks his buddy Vlad will help out, he better expect the only thing for the Russians to do is pat trump on the back and tell him "you go girl."
In short: trump has no political clout or muscle to pull this off. he could try, but it would be his final move.
It would be a messy one. trump could get some supporters in Congress to back him, but it would likely drive any remaining Centrist/Moderate Republicans out of the Party into a third party to oppose him. trump could get some of the military troops - the covert racists among the ranks - and a handful of officers buying into the wingnut mythos, but not enough of the high-ranking officers to make a coup attempt stick. trump could get local law enforcement to back him, but most of them are only in a position to uphold laws at their level (and city/county governments may not want to get involved either way).
The worst part would be the Far Right militia crowd who would rally to trump's effort to become dictator, who would lash out not at the federal government but at their local communities much like the SA Brownshirts would smash their way across 1930s Germany. Those militia may number about 50,000 or so hard-core members, but that would be just enough - and spread across enough states - to cause serious damage to millions of innocent American lives.
If trump tries to make himself Dictator, we will be deep into our Second Civil War, bloody and messy and leaving the United States tattered perhaps beyond repair.
Hurry up, Mueller. Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Thursday, March 01, 2018
One Two trump Four Let's Have Ourselves a Trade War
I wrote what felt like ages ago a What If scenario of what trump's first year of a presidency would look like. Actually it was in February 2016. What happened was two months later the Boston Globe went and did their own predictions, and I kinda felt like bragging that I had gotten there first.
But the Globe beat me at considering one disaster that I had overlooked: the likelihood that trump would start some kind of trade war - especially with China - as part of trump's nationalist-populist agenda to take America back to an age of protectionism and high tariffs.
Well, it didn't happen in trump's first year - although there were moments he threatened to roll something out - but hey, now that trump is at a stage where his entire administration is falling apart, why not go the extra mile and wreck the economy by boosting tariffs on steel and aluminum?
Via CNBC:
The effects of what trump proposes won't just have a negative effect on the stock market.
I could link you to other economic pundits - say Anne Lowry at the Atlantic or David Lynch at the Washington Post - but let me have a go at it. Me, a barely-competent person at finances who got a C in Economics 1101 back at Gainesville (GO GATORS) in 1990 or so.
How trump's tariffs proposal are gonna suck:
While Smoot-Hawley wasn't the prime cause of the Great Depression, it did make things worse.
Just on those three points alone that I can think up off the top of my head - coming from a C-grade economics student - I've made salient arguments why tariffs need to be treated with more subtlety and finesse (say, very minimal increases on a tariff while pursuing connected policies that would alleviate any negative responses). Instead, here comes the ole Shitgibbon with a sledgehammer looking to start a fight with some of the largest economic powerhouses on the planet.
This is a fight that by all accounts a lot of trump's own people were counseling against. I can't link to anything yet, but I thought I saw something online from experts noting that these particular tariffs will wreck whatever economic gains were to be coming out of Congress' massive tax-cut boondoggle.
Here it comes, America, the train wreck Boston Globe and a lot of other experts warned you was coming if trump got into the White House on his protectionist, isolationist platform.
62 million of you voted for this. And now you're going to find out that economics is a lot harder than simple "buy low sell high." And that the guy you backed isn't a financial genius, just the grandest biggest con artist of all time.
Gods help us.
But the Globe beat me at considering one disaster that I had overlooked: the likelihood that trump would start some kind of trade war - especially with China - as part of trump's nationalist-populist agenda to take America back to an age of protectionism and high tariffs.
Well, it didn't happen in trump's first year - although there were moments he threatened to roll something out - but hey, now that trump is at a stage where his entire administration is falling apart, why not go the extra mile and wreck the economy by boosting tariffs on steel and aluminum?
Via CNBC:
President Donald Trump's plan to slap tariffs on foreign aluminum and steel could help U.S. producers, but it could also fuel inflation, slow the economy and trigger other retaliatory actions against U.S. industries, analysts said.
These fears weighed on stocks, and the market sold off sharply after initially flip-flopping amid confusion over whether there would be an announcement or not. But stocks sold off sharply when Trump surprised the markets and announced a 25 percent tariff on steel and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum.
"One of the largest fears we have is we've got tariffs. We could have trade wars, and it could blow up NAFTA negotiations, and nobody wins a trade war," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR.
The Dow closed down 420 points to 24,608, and the S&P 500 slid 1.3 percent to 2,677. The move was viewed as one of the most protectionist actions from the Trump administration, and it is one of his policies that has most worried markets, even as stocks have rallied on tax reform and his other pro-growth policies.
"Tariffs would probably have the unfortunate effect of both slowing growth and accelerating inflation, and that's not a good thing," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies. "For this economy, this is the worst possible time to be doing that."
The effects of what trump proposes won't just have a negative effect on the stock market.
I could link you to other economic pundits - say Anne Lowry at the Atlantic or David Lynch at the Washington Post - but let me have a go at it. Me, a barely-competent person at finances who got a C in Economics 1101 back at Gainesville (GO GATORS) in 1990 or so.
How trump's tariffs proposal are gonna suck:
- The tariffs are like a tax on the items in question, meaning the costs on these items will go up. While the steel mills may see more profits out of it, all of the other industries that build using steel will have to pay more and will pass those costs onto the consumers, namely us. I'm seeing reports of how this will affect the automakers, especially the ones here in the U.S. I just spotted a report from Coors about how this will affect their beer canning. These tariffs do not happen in a vacuum: Every other industry that relies on cheap materials for cheap products will have to make those products more expensive to us consumers. And those industries will see their profits decline, leading to lost jobs and a downward cycle.
- The tariffs will spark a trade war, and not just against countries who compete against us but also our allies. Other countries will not like having access to a solid market like ours curtailed with a tax on steel as steep as a 25 percent increase. The early observations was that trump wants this trade war as a way of attacking China, but on steel I'm finding out the nation getting hit hardest is going to be CANADA: Canada ships us about 11 percent of imported steel while China ships less than Germany (3 percent). Canada just happens to be one of our biggest trading partners, and also our sole neighboring nation to the North. PISSING THEM OFF IS NOT A GOOD IDEA, EH?
- Tariffs make economies worse, not better. And this one I learned from watching Ben Stein in that Ferris Bueller movie:
While Smoot-Hawley wasn't the prime cause of the Great Depression, it did make things worse.
Just on those three points alone that I can think up off the top of my head - coming from a C-grade economics student - I've made salient arguments why tariffs need to be treated with more subtlety and finesse (say, very minimal increases on a tariff while pursuing connected policies that would alleviate any negative responses). Instead, here comes the ole Shitgibbon with a sledgehammer looking to start a fight with some of the largest economic powerhouses on the planet.
This is a fight that by all accounts a lot of trump's own people were counseling against. I can't link to anything yet, but I thought I saw something online from experts noting that these particular tariffs will wreck whatever economic gains were to be coming out of Congress' massive tax-cut boondoggle.
Here it comes, America, the train wreck Boston Globe and a lot of other experts warned you was coming if trump got into the White House on his protectionist, isolationist platform.
62 million of you voted for this. And now you're going to find out that economics is a lot harder than simple "buy low sell high." And that the guy you backed isn't a financial genius, just the grandest biggest con artist of all time.
Gods help us.
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Chaos Reigns
Via Talking Points Memo today:
The reports are hinting that Hicks is bowing out because she admitted to the Committee - even as she refused to answer most of their questions - that she told some "white lies" during her time working in trump's administration.
Here's the part that's both tragic and hilarious:
This trump White House has one of the most chaotic managements in modern political history. It's already gone through Four Communications Directors, Three Chiefs of Staff, Two National Security Advisors, and a Partridge in a Pear Tree (sorry, couldn't resist).
Part of the problem is trump himself: He favors a competitive form of having staffers under him compete with each other to curry his favor and receive his boons. As a result, rather than have the departments and staffers work harder to prove themselves competent, his underlings tend to backstab each other and overplay their position among the ranks (meaning they worry more about looking good than actually being good).
Hicks had been under fire recently, partly for her role in the Roy Porter scandal, partly for the fact that she'd never really been qualified to hold a position as important as Communications Director before, partly for the possibility she's getting scrutinized by Mueller's investigation due to her role trying to cover up trump junior's involvement in the June 2016 meeting with Russians that may have interfered in our Presidential elections that year. Her jumping overboard with a life preserver on is actually the sanest move she can make right now.
If anything else, Hicks is a sign that the trump administration is about to implode from staff desertions. There's been buzz for months that the people working there are overwhelmed - because they couldn't find enough people to actually WANT to work for trump in the first place - and incapable of keeping up with the constant chaos trump employs.
For a long-standing trump employee and faithful family ally like her to bolt for the exits can well be the flag drop for everyone else to race out the door.
This is gonna get uglier, real fast.
White House Communications Director Hope Hicks will resign in the coming weeks, the New York Times’ first reported Wednesday.
The announcement comes one day after Hicks testified before the House Intelligence Committee for its investigation of Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
The reports are hinting that Hicks is bowing out because she admitted to the Committee - even as she refused to answer most of their questions - that she told some "white lies" during her time working in trump's administration.
Here's the part that's both tragic and hilarious:
Hicks is the fourth person to serve as communications director in the Trump administration, in addition to Sean Spicer, Mike Dubke and Anthony Scaramucci. She was named to the position in September of last year, after serving in an interim capacity the previous month.
This trump White House has one of the most chaotic managements in modern political history. It's already gone through Four Communications Directors, Three Chiefs of Staff, Two National Security Advisors, and a Partridge in a Pear Tree (sorry, couldn't resist).
Part of the problem is trump himself: He favors a competitive form of having staffers under him compete with each other to curry his favor and receive his boons. As a result, rather than have the departments and staffers work harder to prove themselves competent, his underlings tend to backstab each other and overplay their position among the ranks (meaning they worry more about looking good than actually being good).
Hicks had been under fire recently, partly for her role in the Roy Porter scandal, partly for the fact that she'd never really been qualified to hold a position as important as Communications Director before, partly for the possibility she's getting scrutinized by Mueller's investigation due to her role trying to cover up trump junior's involvement in the June 2016 meeting with Russians that may have interfered in our Presidential elections that year. Her jumping overboard with a life preserver on is actually the sanest move she can make right now.
If anything else, Hicks is a sign that the trump administration is about to implode from staff desertions. There's been buzz for months that the people working there are overwhelmed - because they couldn't find enough people to actually WANT to work for trump in the first place - and incapable of keeping up with the constant chaos trump employs.
For a long-standing trump employee and faithful family ally like her to bolt for the exits can well be the flag drop for everyone else to race out the door.
This is gonna get uglier, real fast.
Friday, February 23, 2018
Update On the Update On the Manafort Gates Part of the trump-Russia Scandals
What I wrote yesterday when it looked like Rick Gates was backing out of a plea deal with Mueller's investigations into trump-Russia, which led to Mueller getting one of his grand juries to add 32 more indictments on Gates and Manafort:
Okay, time to make this a Schadenfreude article!
The deal is back on (via Vox.com)!
It's like Gates was all "you must be bluffing, I can't take that deal" and Mueller was all "I don't bluff" and then Gates was all "yuh-huh" and Mueller was "here's 32 more counts on your ass" and Gates was then "oh shit" and...
The thing that stands out: Gates agreeing to plea out to a "Conspiracy Against the United States," something that the previous plea deals never had (nearly everyone else pleading out has gone with just "lying to the FBI"). The indictment seems to spell out that the actual charge involves Gates' lied to the government about his foreign business deals... but the word "conspiracy" itself implies that "more than one person was involved in breaking this particular law". Just how many other people were part of this conspiracy?
It's nice to see the word pop up in this investigation. So far, the word of choice had been calling everything trump and Russia did together as "Collusion", which is suspicious but not criminal. "Conspiracy" is criminal, and we can now describe things happening here in trump-World as conspiracy.
The other thing that the Vox article points out, this is a major turning point in the Mueller investigation, because Gates is someone high enough in trump's 2016 campaign to be a key link to a lot of the questionable acts that have been alleged about them and Russia:
It's also important to note that Gates stayed with trump well after Manafort was kicked from the campaign when his own troubling issues went public. Gates can well flip on other trump campaigners on matters that Mueller is uncovering.
So all in all, fun times.
Until trump freaks out and makes another attempt to fire Mueller, or fires Rosenstein, or shuts down the entire FBI, or...
I'm kind of surprised Gates bailed on the deal, if he knew in some way Mueller had more of these charges filed away for this moment. Unless Mueller was offering something that involved jail time, or taking away something Gates viewed as personally valuable, all Gates has done from reneging on the deal has been making it more likely a court will find him guilty on something among all the money laundering and fraud he's getting accused of.
There may be only one reason Gates would back off: if he really thinks trump will come in and shut this all down. Scary consideration, which is the only reason why I don't put this in the Schadenfreude column yet.
Okay, time to make this a Schadenfreude article!
The deal is back on (via Vox.com)!
Special counsel Robert Mueller just flipped another former Trump staffer. Rick Gates — Paul Manafort’s longtime junior business partner and a 2016 Trump campaign aide — agreed to a plea deal in Mueller’s investigation Friday afternoon in which he’ll cooperate with the probe.
Gates pleaded to one count of conspiracy against the United States and one count of making false statements to the FBI. In exchange, other charges related to money laundering, acting as an unregistered foreign agent, and making other false statements will be dropped. Here are his statement of offense and plea agreement.
Though Gates pleaded not guilty after he was first indicted last October, he’s increasingly been looking at an expensive legal defense with no end in sight and a potential decades-long prison sentence — particularly since Mueller filed a dizzying new set of tax, financial, and bank fraud charges against him and Manafort just yesterday.
It's like Gates was all "you must be bluffing, I can't take that deal" and Mueller was all "I don't bluff" and then Gates was all "yuh-huh" and Mueller was "here's 32 more counts on your ass" and Gates was then "oh shit" and...
The thing that stands out: Gates agreeing to plea out to a "Conspiracy Against the United States," something that the previous plea deals never had (nearly everyone else pleading out has gone with just "lying to the FBI"). The indictment seems to spell out that the actual charge involves Gates' lied to the government about his foreign business deals... but the word "conspiracy" itself implies that "more than one person was involved in breaking this particular law". Just how many other people were part of this conspiracy?
It's nice to see the word pop up in this investigation. So far, the word of choice had been calling everything trump and Russia did together as "Collusion", which is suspicious but not criminal. "Conspiracy" is criminal, and we can now describe things happening here in trump-World as conspiracy.
The other thing that the Vox article points out, this is a major turning point in the Mueller investigation, because Gates is someone high enough in trump's 2016 campaign to be a key link to a lot of the questionable acts that have been alleged about them and Russia:
After all, Gates worked on the Trump campaign. And unlike cooperator George Papadopoulos, he actually had a high-level job there, which had him work quite closely with the person running the campaign for several months: Manafort.
For instance, there have been recent reports that Mueller is keenly interested in the White House’s story about the June 9, 2016, meeting Donald Trump Jr. arranged with a Russian lawyer in Trump Tower for the purpose of getting “dirt” on Hillary Clinton.
Gates wasn’t at that meeting — but Manafort was. And if anything inappropriate involving Russian interference with the campaign did happen there, one person Manafort just might tell could be his close friend and business partner of more than a decade, Rick Gates...
It's also important to note that Gates stayed with trump well after Manafort was kicked from the campaign when his own troubling issues went public. Gates can well flip on other trump campaigners on matters that Mueller is uncovering.
So all in all, fun times.
Until trump freaks out and makes another attempt to fire Mueller, or fires Rosenstein, or shuts down the entire FBI, or...
Thursday, February 22, 2018
Update On the Manafort Gates Part of the trump-Russia Scandals
Apparently, whatever deal Mueller was trying to get out of Gates fell through. That means Mueller piled on top of the existing charges even more - and more serious - charges (via Vox.com):
Mueller is actually overseeing various grand juries because the scope and size of the investigation into Russia's attack on our 2016 Elections covers a lot of literal ground.
If you want to take a look at the actual paperwork filed, Vox provided a PDF link here.
For Mueller and for the investigation overall, this is further confirmation that there was - IS - a lot of corruption in trump's business world. It'd be nice to see when/if any of that sticks to trump.
I'm kind of surprised Gates bailed on the deal, if he knew in some way Mueller had more of these charges filed away for this moment. Unless Mueller was offering something that involved jail time, or taking away something Gates viewed as personally valuable, all Gates has done from reneging on the deal has been making it more likely a court will find him guilty on something among all the money laundering and fraud he's getting accused of.
There may be only one reason Gates would back off: if he really thinks trump will come in and shut this all down. Scary consideration, which is the only reason why I don't put this in the Schadenfreude column yet.
A federal grand jury in Virginia approved a new set of charges from special counsel Robert Mueller against former Trump campaign aides Paul Manafort and Rick Gates Thursday afternoon.
Mueller had indicted Manafort and Gates on a combined 12 counts last October in Washington, DC, but he has now assembled a “superseding indictment” with a combined 32 counts of tax, financial, and bank fraud charges against the two men — in Virginia rather than Washington.
Mueller is actually overseeing various grand juries because the scope and size of the investigation into Russia's attack on our 2016 Elections covers a lot of literal ground.
If you want to take a look at the actual paperwork filed, Vox provided a PDF link here.
For Mueller and for the investigation overall, this is further confirmation that there was - IS - a lot of corruption in trump's business world. It'd be nice to see when/if any of that sticks to trump.
I'm kind of surprised Gates bailed on the deal, if he knew in some way Mueller had more of these charges filed away for this moment. Unless Mueller was offering something that involved jail time, or taking away something Gates viewed as personally valuable, all Gates has done from reneging on the deal has been making it more likely a court will find him guilty on something among all the money laundering and fraud he's getting accused of.
There may be only one reason Gates would back off: if he really thinks trump will come in and shut this all down. Scary consideration, which is the only reason why I don't put this in the Schadenfreude column yet.
Sunday, February 18, 2018
The Kids Are Alright
And these children that you shoot at /
As they try to dodge your bullets /
Are immune to your Fox Not-News punditry /
They're quite aware you're on the NRA payroll...
- Updated version of David Bowie's "Ch-Ch-Changes"
In the aftermath of the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting (via The Atlantic):
I think the gun nuts just fucked with the wrong high school.
Then there's student Emma Gonzalez, using the aftermath to rail against the people in power (hint: Republicans) who haven't done shit to address the rise of gun violence in our schools, our public places, and our lives:
There's talk of making a nationwide boycott, of students walking out of their school on April 20 (anniversary of Columbine, what had been the deadliest school massacre until Parkland) and refusing to go back until Congress passes gun safety laws such as banning assault weapons used in most of our mass shootings and implementing Universal Background Checks.
This is the generation following us. This is the generation that grew up in the shadow of Columbine, and who were in middle school when the Sandy Hook massacre took place, and who have been living through monthly school lockdown drills their entire lives.
They are sick of it. They are sick of the NRA buying enough politicians to stop common sense safety laws passing, they are sick of angry guys with guns using them for target practice, they are sick of a status quo that has been enforced on our nation based on fear, lies, and ignorance.
And the kids are not rolling over.
And the kids are standing up.
The kids are alright.
Update: I am not the only one noting these kids are alright.
Guardian article
New Yorker article.
NY Daily News article.
P.S. some of these kids are gonna be old enough to vote this 2018 midterms.
P.S.S. ALL of these kids are gonna be old enough to vote in 2020.
You Republicans can throw all the issues at the glass - abortion, tax cuts, immigration, racial fears, what have you - in order to distract people but I guarantee you these kids are gonna be single-issue voters. They got something to rally around. They are gonna be voting against guns, and you lot sold yourselves to the NRA for far too long.
I hope to God it's an electoral bloodbath this November to match the literal bloodbaths filling up our schools.
As they try to dodge your bullets /
Are immune to your Fox Not-News punditry /
They're quite aware you're on the NRA payroll...
- Updated version of David Bowie's "Ch-Ch-Changes"
In the aftermath of the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting (via The Atlantic):
What made Parkland different were the people who stepped forward to describe it. High-school students—the survivors of the calamity themselves—became the voice of the tragedy. Tweets that were widely reported as coming from the students expressed grief for the victims, pushed against false reports, and demanded accountability...
...On television, on social media, they were unignorable. Many of them called for legislation to address the violence.
“We are children. You guys are the adults. Work together, come over your politics, and get something done,” David Hogg, a student who survived the killing, told CNN...
When the conservative pundit Tomi Lahren demanded that “the left ... let the families grieve for even 24 hours before they push their anti-gun and anti-gun-owner agenda,” the same survivors, who knew the victims, responded in kind:
I think the gun nuts just fucked with the wrong high school.
...Those students understand that they live in a country that they have very little power to change—a country where, several times a year, a school for children becomes a charnel house. So when that hideous transformation struck their school, they already knew what they wanted to do. That girl in the closet, talking to her classmate, anticipated the next several days of talking points without knowing whether she would get to see those days at all. These assorted Florida teenagers knew the contours of the gun debate so well that they were rebutting NRA talking points just after emerging from their safe zones. Now, a few days later, their insistence on their own authority has gummed up the works of the otherwise cliched national debate. Their calls for action may not lead to any imminent change in policy. But they have given the country a striking symbol of what—and who—we’re really talking about when we have these debates. And they will not be the last victims to face a loaded assault rifle and think: This IS preventable. I MUST politicize this.
Then there's student Emma Gonzalez, using the aftermath to rail against the people in power (hint: Republicans) who haven't done shit to address the rise of gun violence in our schools, our public places, and our lives:
There's talk of making a nationwide boycott, of students walking out of their school on April 20 (anniversary of Columbine, what had been the deadliest school massacre until Parkland) and refusing to go back until Congress passes gun safety laws such as banning assault weapons used in most of our mass shootings and implementing Universal Background Checks.
This is the generation following us. This is the generation that grew up in the shadow of Columbine, and who were in middle school when the Sandy Hook massacre took place, and who have been living through monthly school lockdown drills their entire lives.
They are sick of it. They are sick of the NRA buying enough politicians to stop common sense safety laws passing, they are sick of angry guys with guns using them for target practice, they are sick of a status quo that has been enforced on our nation based on fear, lies, and ignorance.
And the kids are not rolling over.
And the kids are standing up.
The kids are alright.
Update: I am not the only one noting these kids are alright.
Guardian article
New Yorker article.
NY Daily News article.
P.S. some of these kids are gonna be old enough to vote this 2018 midterms.
P.S.S. ALL of these kids are gonna be old enough to vote in 2020.
You Republicans can throw all the issues at the glass - abortion, tax cuts, immigration, racial fears, what have you - in order to distract people but I guarantee you these kids are gonna be single-issue voters. They got something to rally around. They are gonna be voting against guns, and you lot sold yourselves to the NRA for far too long.
I hope to God it's an electoral bloodbath this November to match the literal bloodbaths filling up our schools.
Friday, February 16, 2018
Past the Looking Glass And Into the Darkest Timeline: February 2018 edition
Well, this Friday night news dump was heavier than expected. Mueller dropped a 16-tonner in fact (via David A Graham at the Atlantic):
This is one of the key points of Mueller's investigation: Finding out if the Russians actively interfered in our nation's 2016 election cycle, and if they did find out who, where, when, and how badly.
trump and his handlers/ family members/ faithful lapdogs/ toadies kept arguing there "was no collusion" and that the investigation is all a "hoax" and a "witch hunt." Well, Mueller's mic drop says otherwise:
For all that Mueller had done up to this point - charges on Manafort and Gates, plea deals for Papadopolous and Flynn - none of it directly referred to Russia and any ties to trump. No more.
In other words, use Fox Not-News to rile up an anger-driven conspiracy-obsessed Republican base.
The Russians at some point really focused on trump as their primary weapon to shatter the American electoral process:
Just remember: this is the stuff Mueller and his team can prove in open court. They're still dealing with sensitive national-security level intel, a lot of which they can't share for the next 20-50 years without getting declassified.
One of the more shocking things in this indictment are the bits about how Russia committed criminal acts during the campaign:
These aren't fantastical charges, products of a deluded mind, or fake news. These are actual legal findings, things that have to stand up in a court of law, things that have gone through rigorous scrutiny and can't be denied nor ignored. Guys like Pinedo and Flynn are pleading out as they're caught dead to rights (and one of the indicted, Gates, is reportedly close to getting a plea deal himself). trump and his ilk can't lie about this, no matter how hard they try.
There's still other elements of this investigation - the more direct ties between trump and Russia that have come out focusing on trump's campaign actively digging for dirt on Hillary, such as the infamous June 2016 meeting at trump Tower - that aren't detailed in these indictments. Those elements may be covered in other parts of Mueller's probe... and may yet come out when possible indictments for trump, trump junior, and Kushner get dropped.
That last part has always been one of the serious conundrums of this ongoing scandal. The long-standing realization that trump - having committed acts of Obstruction in firing the likes of Yates and Comey who were digging too close to trump's Russian ties - is bound to try and shut down the investigation before it directly touches him (or those closest).
There's an argument now that by revealing Russia's involvement like this, Mueller and Rosenstein have insulated themselves from any reprisal: If trump tries firing either one of them now, it would be such a blatant act to protect Russia that trump (and his Republican backers) loses all remaining shreds of credibility left to them.
That's never an issue with trump, though: His voting base will never accept the facts that Mueller uncovers.
My argument is that trump can't remove Mueller or Rosenstein now because doing so creates a major schism in both domestic and foreign affairs. If he tries to shut this investigation down, he loses any control over the Intel agencies tasked with protecting our nation, and he runs the risk of having large swathes of our military refusing to obey any orders from what they'll view is an illegal Presidency. Another thing to consider: Our foreign allies and neighbors will go from barely-concealed loathing to open hostility, treating trump and his Republican allies as criminal usurpers on the Russian payroll.
trump is in the unenviable place of "damned if he does. damned if he doesn't". He can't shut the investigation down without paying a high price... and Mueller's investigation is getting closer to the point of revealing direct ties with Russia and all the criminal charges that would entail.
Then again, it's his own damn fault he's in this predicament. he's the one who decided to run in order to mock his rival Obama's legacy... he's the one who refused to play by the election rules... he's the one breaking every ethical and legal practice on the books.
trump deserves the punishment - one form or another - aiming his way. It's called KARMA and he's earned every piece of pain and humiliation that's coming.
It's just gonna be messy for all of us when it hits.
A 37-page indictment filed by Special Counsel Robert Mueller on Friday lays out the most detailed picture of how the Russian government sought to interfere in the 2016 election, meddling with voters to sow division in American society, and encouraging the election of Donald Trump in what the defendants referred to as “information warfare against the United States of America.”
This is one of the key points of Mueller's investigation: Finding out if the Russians actively interfered in our nation's 2016 election cycle, and if they did find out who, where, when, and how badly.
trump and his handlers/ family members/ faithful lapdogs/ toadies kept arguing there "was no collusion" and that the investigation is all a "hoax" and a "witch hunt." Well, Mueller's mic drop says otherwise:
“The conspiracy had as its object impairing, obstructing, and defeating the lawful governmental functions of the United States by dishonest means in order to enable the Defendants to interfere with U.S. political and electoral processes, including the 2016 U.S. presidential election,” the indictment states. There are 16 defendants, including three organizations and 13 individuals, who are charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States by impairing enforcement of election law as well as wire fraud and bank fraud.
The document is the most complete set of allegations offered by the government yet about one subset of Russian interference, going far beyond an intelligence-community report released in early 2017. At its peak, the alleged conspiracy had a budget of more than $1.25 million per month for activities in the U.S. (!!!) and elsewhere.
The indictment also stands as an implicit rebuke to President Trump, who has repeatedly refused to acknowledge the Russian role in the election...
For all that Mueller had done up to this point - charges on Manafort and Gates, plea deals for Papadopolous and Flynn - none of it directly referred to Russia and any ties to trump. No more.
Friday’s indictment contains far more detail, and while its contents are allegations, not claims proven in a court, they are bolstered by extensive documentary evidence, including emails and messages. Much of the material has been reported in various news outlets, but the indictment puts it all in one place for the first time...
The Russian effort to meddle in the election began way back in 2014, long before anyone viewed Trump as a serious candidate for the presidency, much less a likely nominee. The goal was simply to create division and chaos by exploiting existing cleavages in American society—or as the indictment puts it, operators were instructed to create “political intensity through supporting radical groups, users dissatisfied with [the] social and economic situation and oppositional social movements...”
In other words, use Fox Not-News to rile up an anger-driven conspiracy-obsessed Republican base.
Vladimir Putin’s government has long detested Hillary Clinton, and as Trump rose, the IRA seems to have concluded that he was a useful vector for grievances. Employees sought to boost Trump and Bernie Sanders, Clinton’s principal primary opponent, while also attacking GOP candidates who were more hawkish on Russia: “They engaged in operations primarily intended to communicate derogatory information about Hillary Clinton, to denigrate other candidates such as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, and to support Bernie Sanders and then-candidate Donald Trump...”
The Russians at some point really focused on trump as their primary weapon to shatter the American electoral process:
Even if the conspiracy did not set out to boost Trump, it jumped into the task with gusto once latching on to him. There was a distinctly pro-Trump bent in its social-media presence... Certain ORGANIZATION-produced materials about the 2016 presidential election used election-related hashtags, including: “#Trump2016,” “#TrumpTrain,” “#MAGA,” “#IWontProtectHillary,” and “#Hillary4Prison”" Defendants and their co-conspirators also established additional online social media accounts dedicated to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, including the Twitter account “March for Trump” and Facebook accounts “Clinton FRAUDation” and “Trumpsters United.”
Just remember: this is the stuff Mueller and his team can prove in open court. They're still dealing with sensitive national-security level intel, a lot of which they can't share for the next 20-50 years without getting declassified.
One of the more shocking things in this indictment are the bits about how Russia committed criminal acts during the campaign:
The rallies produced criminal activity, according to the government. First, in order to organize rallies, the defendants were required to register with the U.S. government, which they did not. Second, they allegedly committed wire and bank fraud while attempting to move money under false pretenses. On Friday, the government also unsealed a guilty plea from Richard Pinedo, an American who acknowledged selling bank accounts to the Russians to assist them in circumventing financial laws...
These aren't fantastical charges, products of a deluded mind, or fake news. These are actual legal findings, things that have to stand up in a court of law, things that have gone through rigorous scrutiny and can't be denied nor ignored. Guys like Pinedo and Flynn are pleading out as they're caught dead to rights (and one of the indicted, Gates, is reportedly close to getting a plea deal himself). trump and his ilk can't lie about this, no matter how hard they try.
There's still other elements of this investigation - the more direct ties between trump and Russia that have come out focusing on trump's campaign actively digging for dirt on Hillary, such as the infamous June 2016 meeting at trump Tower - that aren't detailed in these indictments. Those elements may be covered in other parts of Mueller's probe... and may yet come out when possible indictments for trump, trump junior, and Kushner get dropped.
That last part has always been one of the serious conundrums of this ongoing scandal. The long-standing realization that trump - having committed acts of Obstruction in firing the likes of Yates and Comey who were digging too close to trump's Russian ties - is bound to try and shut down the investigation before it directly touches him (or those closest).
There's an argument now that by revealing Russia's involvement like this, Mueller and Rosenstein have insulated themselves from any reprisal: If trump tries firing either one of them now, it would be such a blatant act to protect Russia that trump (and his Republican backers) loses all remaining shreds of credibility left to them.
That's never an issue with trump, though: His voting base will never accept the facts that Mueller uncovers.
My argument is that trump can't remove Mueller or Rosenstein now because doing so creates a major schism in both domestic and foreign affairs. If he tries to shut this investigation down, he loses any control over the Intel agencies tasked with protecting our nation, and he runs the risk of having large swathes of our military refusing to obey any orders from what they'll view is an illegal Presidency. Another thing to consider: Our foreign allies and neighbors will go from barely-concealed loathing to open hostility, treating trump and his Republican allies as criminal usurpers on the Russian payroll.
trump is in the unenviable place of "damned if he does. damned if he doesn't". He can't shut the investigation down without paying a high price... and Mueller's investigation is getting closer to the point of revealing direct ties with Russia and all the criminal charges that would entail.
Then again, it's his own damn fault he's in this predicament. he's the one who decided to run in order to mock his rival Obama's legacy... he's the one who refused to play by the election rules... he's the one breaking every ethical and legal practice on the books.
trump deserves the punishment - one form or another - aiming his way. It's called KARMA and he's earned every piece of pain and humiliation that's coming.
It's just gonna be messy for all of us when it hits.
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Bad News From Florida: Blood On the Streets Of Parkland
I started writing my good news article today this morning.
I just got the word this afternoon about Parkland.
Jesus Christ no.
I lived there, back when I worked in Broward County Libraries. Not exactly in Parkland, but in Tamarac for a few years, then Coconut Creek. I know the neighborhoods, I know those communities.
Jesus Christ.
17 dead.
All because of one angry guy with a military-grade assault rifle.
All because the National Body Count Association owns most of the elected Republicans between here to Alaska. All because the National "Our Guns Matter More Than Your Kids" Association will throw another hissy fit if any sensible gun safety laws even gets mentioned on the floor of Congress.
All because the only thing our elected officials will do is "send thoughts and prayers" as though the last 180,000 times hadn't worked.
We have a national gun death rate comparable to a war zone. We're racking up more kills than the Syrian Civil War this year. I might not even be exaggerating.
We will keep seeing our schools and churches and malls and movie theaters and concert events used for target practice until we do one of two things: Get rid of angry guys or get rid of military-grade assault rifles that make it too goddamn easy to kill.
I just got the word this afternoon about Parkland.
Jesus Christ no.
I lived there, back when I worked in Broward County Libraries. Not exactly in Parkland, but in Tamarac for a few years, then Coconut Creek. I know the neighborhoods, I know those communities.
Jesus Christ.
17 dead.
All because of one angry guy with a military-grade assault rifle.
All because the National Body Count Association owns most of the elected Republicans between here to Alaska. All because the National "Our Guns Matter More Than Your Kids" Association will throw another hissy fit if any sensible gun safety laws even gets mentioned on the floor of Congress.
All because the only thing our elected officials will do is "send thoughts and prayers" as though the last 180,000 times hadn't worked.
We have a national gun death rate comparable to a war zone. We're racking up more kills than the Syrian Civil War this year. I might not even be exaggerating.
We will keep seeing our schools and churches and malls and movie theaters and concert events used for target practice until we do one of two things: Get rid of angry guys or get rid of military-grade assault rifles that make it too goddamn easy to kill.
Good News from Florida, A Reminder to All Voters Opposed to trump
This is happening in my back yard (via the Daily Beast):
Essentially, this should have been an easy roll for Buchanan: his family is the local political power, able to cash in favors here, promises there... Instead:
What's interesting is that for a non-Presidential cycle, plus midterm, also special election for a small state legislative seat, the turnout for this was bigger than expected (via the local Sarasota Herald-Tribune):
I might actually start smiling again.
This answers some of my ongoing calls for action.
This proves that the key to victory for Democrats is turnout. GET THE DAMN VOTE OUT.
This proves to me on an emotional level that there are a lot of angry voters - 65 million worth - who watched the 2016 elections go against their interests and put into office people - trump especially - they didn't vote for.
This proves that the voters are NOT going to slack off for 2018 midterms like they usually did, when turnout in 2014 and 2010 dropped because they weren't Presidential cycles.
This proves that if Democrats challenge every seat, if they refuse to let Republican get into elected offices without a fight, they've got better than expected chances to win in even "solid red pro-Republican" districts. They won't win every race: But the way things are trending they CAN win enough seats to matter.
This year it means everything to get the vote out.
Work on this, Dems. You've got a mission: Stop trump. You've got the numbers: 65 million voters nationwide. You've got the odds: A majority of Americans are WITH YOU, not the GOP.
Get the vote out, people. Vote for every Democrat you can, throw Republican you can out into the trashbins.
Margaret Good won a special election for state representative in Florida’s 72nd district on Tuesday night, the Democratic party’s 36th legislative flip since President Donald Trump’s inauguration last year.
The closely watched race pitted Good against Libertarian Alison Foxall and Republican James Buchanan, whose father Vern represents the area in Congress...
Essentially, this should have been an easy roll for Buchanan: his family is the local political power, able to cash in favors here, promises there... Instead:
The seat opened up after Republican Alex Miller resigned last year, citing her family and business as reasons. Trump won the district by just five points, where Republicans outnumber Democrats by some 13,000 voters.
Good’s final margin was nearly eight points and over 3,000 votes.
What's interesting is that for a non-Presidential cycle, plus midterm, also special election for a small state legislative seat, the turnout for this was bigger than expected (via the local Sarasota Herald-Tribune):
Before Election Day voting even commenced, turnout for the District 72 state House race may have set a record for a state House special election in Florida, another sign of how much interest the race is attracting as both major parties look to make a statement heading into the November midterm election.
Sarasota County Supervisor of Elections Ron Turner researched voter turnout results in the state archives. The turnout figures only go back to 2003, but since then the largest voter turnout for a state House special election was 22 percent in 2008. Turnout in the District 72 race already was at 22.8 percent as of Monday evening, and that’s only from absentee and in-person early voting. By 11 a.m. Tuesday turnout had reached 25 percent, Turner said.
“For the type of election it is, it certainly is strong turnout,” Turner said, adding that the turnout figure “says a lot about the interest and excitement in this race.”
I might actually start smiling again.
This answers some of my ongoing calls for action.
This proves that the key to victory for Democrats is turnout. GET THE DAMN VOTE OUT.
This proves to me on an emotional level that there are a lot of angry voters - 65 million worth - who watched the 2016 elections go against their interests and put into office people - trump especially - they didn't vote for.
This proves that the voters are NOT going to slack off for 2018 midterms like they usually did, when turnout in 2014 and 2010 dropped because they weren't Presidential cycles.
This proves that if Democrats challenge every seat, if they refuse to let Republican get into elected offices without a fight, they've got better than expected chances to win in even "solid red pro-Republican" districts. They won't win every race: But the way things are trending they CAN win enough seats to matter.
This year it means everything to get the vote out.
Work on this, Dems. You've got a mission: Stop trump. You've got the numbers: 65 million voters nationwide. You've got the odds: A majority of Americans are WITH YOU, not the GOP.
Get the vote out, people. Vote for every Democrat you can, throw Republican you can out into the trashbins.
February 14: Introverts Shamefest Day
When you get older, and you stay lonely all these years, Valentines' Day just loses its appeal, if it ever had any.
I'll just go over into the corner and cry my eyes out, like always.
To the rest of you: honestly, how do you do it? What do I keep doing wrong?
Wednesday, February 07, 2018
Overwhelmed
I'm not underwhelmed at the moment, I can tell you that.
There's about ten-twenty things I gotta do, and for all the outrage I currently have about our trumpian state of misdeeds I'm lacking the time to get focused on even one anger-inducing stupid thing.
Although I'll take a moment and say that trump insisting on a military parade for his own bruised ego is the height of hypocrisy coming from a draft-dodging coward with bone spurs who still golfed without a goddamn care.
Meanwhile, pray to God we're still here in a week or two from now.
AND GET THE GODDAMN VOTE OUT. You have voter registration for state/congressional Primaries coming up! GET EVERYONE SANE YOU KNOW OF SIGNED UP AND READY TO VOTE REPUBLICANS OUT OF OFFICE.
Good Luck. We're all counting on you.
There's about ten-twenty things I gotta do, and for all the outrage I currently have about our trumpian state of misdeeds I'm lacking the time to get focused on even one anger-inducing stupid thing.
Although I'll take a moment and say that trump insisting on a military parade for his own bruised ego is the height of hypocrisy coming from a draft-dodging coward with bone spurs who still golfed without a goddamn care.
Meanwhile, pray to God we're still here in a week or two from now.
AND GET THE GODDAMN VOTE OUT. You have voter registration for state/congressional Primaries coming up! GET EVERYONE SANE YOU KNOW OF SIGNED UP AND READY TO VOTE REPUBLICANS OUT OF OFFICE.
Good Luck. We're all counting on you.
Monday, February 05, 2018
As Now trump Sees Himself as Above All, And To Oppose him is Treason
So while the stock markets were tanking, Loser of the Popular Vote donald trump took the time to call Democrats a bunch of traitors for being mean to him (via Splinter):
Never mind how trump ignores the simple fact that opposing Parties have a Free Speech right to NOT applaud you, never mind that trump doesn't even admit to how Republicans behaved far WORSE when it was Obama speaking to the nation - remember Joe Wilson shouting "You Lie!"
Never mind - that of the two groups of Americans divided today into partisan factions - trump and his people are the ones OPENLY bragging about being in league with a foreign power in the Russians, and that trump and his people are under investigation for working with those Russians to subvert our nation's 2016 election.
Never mind the growing evidence trump himself is the traitor.
Never mind the standard Republican rulebook to accuse their Democratic opponents of committing crimes they themselves commit and expect to get away with.
Here is where we are now, as a nation.
To oppose donald trump is to be treasonous.
This is the hypocrisy of the Republican Party laid bare. They've been like this since the days of McCarthy: accuse their opponents of "hating America" in any way shape and form. A mixture of projection (of the sins they commit) and defensive posturing so that when they DO get caught the Republicans can complain "it's all part of the game and the Democrats are just sliming us the way we slime them."
This is an open declaration by trump that he is above criticism, above reproach, above the laws and rules that have guided our nation for generations.
This is the next step in his authoritarian fantasy, the one right before he grants himself judicial powers to decide who sucks up to him and who goes to jail.
And so here comes trump, playing the role of Charles I, offended by those who question his divine right to rule, marching his way into Parliament like a bully to arrest any and all who oppose him.
It didn't end well, considering the English Civil War started that moment.
It didn't end well for Charles I either.
As Patrick Henry declared, "If this be treason, make the most of it."
During a speech in Blue Ash, OH, on Monday, President Donald Trump—a man who once described neo-Nazis as “some very fine people”—said that the Democrats who didn’t stand and applaud for him during his first State of the Union were traitors.
"You’re up there, you’ve got half the room going totally crazy wild....they love everything, they wanna do something great for our country. And you have the other side—even on positive news, really positive news like that—they were like death. And un-American. Un-American. Somebody said treasonous. Yeah, I guess why not? Can we call that treason? Why not."
Never mind how trump ignores the simple fact that opposing Parties have a Free Speech right to NOT applaud you, never mind that trump doesn't even admit to how Republicans behaved far WORSE when it was Obama speaking to the nation - remember Joe Wilson shouting "You Lie!"
Never mind - that of the two groups of Americans divided today into partisan factions - trump and his people are the ones OPENLY bragging about being in league with a foreign power in the Russians, and that trump and his people are under investigation for working with those Russians to subvert our nation's 2016 election.
Never mind the growing evidence trump himself is the traitor.
Never mind the standard Republican rulebook to accuse their Democratic opponents of committing crimes they themselves commit and expect to get away with.
Here is where we are now, as a nation.
To oppose donald trump is to be treasonous.
This is the hypocrisy of the Republican Party laid bare. They've been like this since the days of McCarthy: accuse their opponents of "hating America" in any way shape and form. A mixture of projection (of the sins they commit) and defensive posturing so that when they DO get caught the Republicans can complain "it's all part of the game and the Democrats are just sliming us the way we slime them."
This is an open declaration by trump that he is above criticism, above reproach, above the laws and rules that have guided our nation for generations.
This is the next step in his authoritarian fantasy, the one right before he grants himself judicial powers to decide who sucks up to him and who goes to jail.
And so here comes trump, playing the role of Charles I, offended by those who question his divine right to rule, marching his way into Parliament like a bully to arrest any and all who oppose him.
It didn't end well, considering the English Civil War started that moment.
It didn't end well for Charles I either.
As Patrick Henry declared, "If this be treason, make the most of it."
Hope You Invested In Manure Futures...
This may not be the kickoff of the recession that Pinku-Sensei warned was coming, but am willing to bet this is the tsunami alarm going off: The Stock Market has dropped sharply both on Friday and today (via CNN):
Percentage-wise, it was about a 4 percent loss - not as bad as the 1987 crash or the 2008 crash - but the optics of seeing a huge wave of red (losses) dominate the screens has to hurt.
I'm seeing other people online say this is merely a "course correction," that the markets can't ALWAYS go up like they've been doing the last 18 months. But you rarely see a course correction this steep.
I'm also seeing the argument about the crash happening because of inflationary fears and/or concerns about interest rates going up, in responses to the "strength" of the American economy when it comes to employment numbers (which isn't as sound as it looks either).
When you consider a lot of pension plans - city, county, state, private - tie their revenues to stock portfolios and mutual funds, there's a lot of money getting lost for people right now. So this is not good news.
The long-term implications for this are beyond my meager understanding (I got a C in economics: the best I can tell you is "buy low, sell high."), but when I consider Pinku's early warning about the recession, and the fact we've got a federal government led by morons who create economic chaos wherever they go, I am not looking forward to the coming fiscal year.
Stocks went into free fall on Monday, and the Dow plunged almost 1,600 points -- easily the biggest point decline in history during a trading day.
Buyers charged back in and limited the damage, but at the closing bell the Dow was still down 1,175 points, by far its worst closing point decline on record.
Percentage-wise, it was about a 4 percent loss - not as bad as the 1987 crash or the 2008 crash - but the optics of seeing a huge wave of red (losses) dominate the screens has to hurt.
I'm seeing other people online say this is merely a "course correction," that the markets can't ALWAYS go up like they've been doing the last 18 months. But you rarely see a course correction this steep.
I'm also seeing the argument about the crash happening because of inflationary fears and/or concerns about interest rates going up, in responses to the "strength" of the American economy when it comes to employment numbers (which isn't as sound as it looks either).
When you consider a lot of pension plans - city, county, state, private - tie their revenues to stock portfolios and mutual funds, there's a lot of money getting lost for people right now. So this is not good news.
The long-term implications for this are beyond my meager understanding (I got a C in economics: the best I can tell you is "buy low, sell high."), but when I consider Pinku's early warning about the recession, and the fact we've got a federal government led by morons who create economic chaos wherever they go, I am not looking forward to the coming fiscal year.
Saturday, February 03, 2018
Yo Memo Jokes
So, to consider the release of the Nunes Memo that supposedly would reveal that the FBI investigation into trump's dealing with Russia during the 2016 elections was an anti-trump hit job?
Yeah, big huge nothingburger... Again.
This is never about the Republicans' actually wanting government to work properly. If you're thinking Nunes and his Congresscritters will use this as a starting point to reform FISA's warrant process, you're wrong.
This isn't about the civil rights of every trump campaigner - Manafort, Carter, Kushner, trump junior, and trump himself - getting trampled on, because that doesn't show up in the memo at all. If it's in the actual warrants, that's all still hidden from view.
This isn't about the facts of the matter, which all point to the FBI and Mueller both going by the book and getting their warrants done proper and legal.
This is about the Republicans wanting to retain their tenuous hold on power. This is about the Republicans looking to dismantle every last aspect of effective government in order to secure their own one-party rule at the expense of everyone else's rights.
This is about giving trump a weapon he can use to shut down a legitimate investigation into his (possible) misdeeds ranging from Obstruction (which he's ADMITTED to and has been caught doing over and over) to criminal interference with our elections with the aid of a foreign power (bordering on treason). Not against Mueller, but against the Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein who is the one person standing in trump's way.
This is about giving the talking heads on Fox Not-News - in particular Sean Hannity - a way to compare this to Watergate but in reverse, where the FBI is illegal and the poor president a victim of partisan librul hacks (?!) inside the Bureau.
This is about giving the conspiracy-driven GOP voting base their red meat, to keep feeding them the fiction that Hillary/Obama are the heads of a vast librul criminal enterprise to ruin 'Murrika. And to fuel the growing anti-government hysteria the Far Right's had for decades.
This is about driving the rest of America crazy. As Nunes and Hannity and the wingnuts collectively aim middle fingers in every direction, the rest of us are clinging onto the twin pillars of Despair And Satire.
It's not that Humor is the only defense we've got left - we still have the Rule Of Law no matter how hard trump and co. are trying to break it - but it's the best weapon we have to let the Far Right know we view them as the hapless clowns they truly are.
So, tweet away every #YoMemoJoke you've got.
And keep fighting to get every Democratic candidate elected to office this 2018. Start making the Republicans feel the despair they've earned.
Yeah, big huge nothingburger... Again.
This is never about the Republicans' actually wanting government to work properly. If you're thinking Nunes and his Congresscritters will use this as a starting point to reform FISA's warrant process, you're wrong.
This isn't about the civil rights of every trump campaigner - Manafort, Carter, Kushner, trump junior, and trump himself - getting trampled on, because that doesn't show up in the memo at all. If it's in the actual warrants, that's all still hidden from view.
This isn't about the facts of the matter, which all point to the FBI and Mueller both going by the book and getting their warrants done proper and legal.
This is about the Republicans wanting to retain their tenuous hold on power. This is about the Republicans looking to dismantle every last aspect of effective government in order to secure their own one-party rule at the expense of everyone else's rights.
This is about giving trump a weapon he can use to shut down a legitimate investigation into his (possible) misdeeds ranging from Obstruction (which he's ADMITTED to and has been caught doing over and over) to criminal interference with our elections with the aid of a foreign power (bordering on treason). Not against Mueller, but against the Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein who is the one person standing in trump's way.
This is about giving the talking heads on Fox Not-News - in particular Sean Hannity - a way to compare this to Watergate but in reverse, where the FBI is illegal and the poor president a victim of partisan librul hacks (?!) inside the Bureau.
This is about giving the conspiracy-driven GOP voting base their red meat, to keep feeding them the fiction that Hillary/Obama are the heads of a vast librul criminal enterprise to ruin 'Murrika. And to fuel the growing anti-government hysteria the Far Right's had for decades.
This is about driving the rest of America crazy. As Nunes and Hannity and the wingnuts collectively aim middle fingers in every direction, the rest of us are clinging onto the twin pillars of Despair And Satire.
It's not that Humor is the only defense we've got left - we still have the Rule Of Law no matter how hard trump and co. are trying to break it - but it's the best weapon we have to let the Far Right know we view them as the hapless clowns they truly are.
So, tweet away every #YoMemoJoke you've got.
And keep fighting to get every Democratic candidate elected to office this 2018. Start making the Republicans feel the despair they've earned.
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