Predicting Character: Getting Ready for 2020

To the seven followers of this blog - can any of you just kinda, you know, raise a hand so I know you're still alive? - we're officially at the start of the Democratic primary race for the 2020 Presidential cycle, which means another round of me applying what I've learned from James David Barber's Presidential Character to predict which major candidates will end up on the Active-Passive Positive-Negative scales.

I won't need to do one for the Republicans as trump is running as the incumbent Loser of the Popular Vote, and his primary challengers are swamped by a rabid voting base that is literally worshiping the Shitgibbon as Jebus. I've already predicted trump would serve as an Active-Negative, and he has performed as Uncompromising, Compulsive, and Self-Destructive as A-Ns tend to perform.

But what about the field of Democratic candidates lining up to oppose him? Considering there's about 24 (or 26, hell make it 37) of them with hats in the ring, I may not have time to cover all of them before the actual primary counting starts happening six months from now.

So at first I'm going to plan on covering the Big Four - the names that have essentially claimed the top ranking on the roster - with enough detail to establish their characters and predict - with wild inaccuracy - which one will end up securing the nomination.

One thing to make clear: Of the four Character traits Professor Barber created, there's not really a clear favorite of "Oh, we MUST vote this one into office above all others." The traits themselves are not necessarily bad, they merely warn us what we should expect from the nominee's world views and likely behavior in office.

For example, an Active-Positive type may seem the best option but many A-Ps commit sins like overreach and most often fail to achieve goals because they're too Adaptive to stick to an agenda. Meanwhile, Active-Negatives are angry, self-destructive types but do have the drive to achieve their agenda (for good and for ill) and in some cases can be more successful at policies than an A-P ever could. And Passive-Positives may be prone to scandal-plagued administrations but are also effective deal-makers and managers during relative calm periods on the global stage. (Funny enough, very few Passive-Negatives run for President: They have to be drafted into it, so we'll rarely see one in a competitive field of candidates...)

So it won't matter, at least not right now, if our top four names - Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren - will be Passive-Positive, Active-Negative, or Active-Positive (I can tell you right now none of them are outright Passive-Negative). What will matter is "Which personality traits do Democrats think can outperform trump in November and secure victory in 2020?"

P.S. I did cover Biden back in 2016 (as well as 2008) but very briefly and without in-depth evaluation of what Character he'd be (although the title of my article should be a giveaway). I shall go into greater detail when the time comes...

P.S.S. to make it fair I rolled a 4-sided die, alphabetical order, best of three. Harris is up first.