The Ballot Ballad of Bladen County

You wanna know what voter fraud REALLY looks like?

Try what's getting found out in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District (via Vox.com):

There are two major pieces to this puzzle: First, specific allegations of unusual activities related to absentee ballots, made in a series of affidavits submitted to the state board by lawyers for the Democratic Party, and second, analyses by political experts suggesting the number of absentee ballots requested but not returned in the Ninth District was unusually high...

* One voter says a young woman came to her house and asked for her absentee ballot because she was collecting them. The voter had made her choice for only two offices on the ballot, but still gave her ballot to the young woman, who said she would fill out the rest (Note: OMFG THIS IS ILLEGAL AS HELL).
* Another voter also says a young woman came to her house and claimed she was responsible for collecting absentee ballots. The voter filled out her ballot while the young woman waited; the woman then took the ballot, but never asked the voter to sign it and did not put it in a sealed envelope (Note: I've done door-to-door canvassing offering to hand-deliver absentee ballots-by-mail. We *had* to ensure the signatures, put it in envelopes, and leave a receipt. It doesn't seem like this woman did any of that).
* A third voter says she did not request an absentee ballot but received one in the mail anyway.
* A fourth person says she saw unusual activity at a polling site: election results being run after polls closed on the last day of early voting and observed by people who were not elections judges, which she understood to be “improper.” The person said she also helped tabulate absentee ballots after the election that were quite worn and had “coding” written on them.
* A fifth person, Dwight Sheppard, says he overheard people talking outside a polling station on Election Day who said a well-known local operative, Leslie McCrae Dowless, Jr., would be paid a $40,000 bonus if Harris won the election.
* In another affidavit — signed and witnessed, but not notarized — a sixth person said he actually talked to Dowless in April during the Republican primary, in which Harris upset sitting Republican Rep. Robert Pittenger (Note: Hmmmmm), According to this person, Dowless said he was working on the absentee vote for Harris, that he had 80 people working for him, and that he accepted cash payments only from campaigns.

This isn’t the first time Dowless’s name has come up in relation to voting shenanigans: In 2016, several people filed complaints about campaign workers hired by Dowless who were collecting absentee ballots, as WECT reported at the time...

You might notice that at no point did any group of "questionable" or "illegal" voters showed up by the bus-load to stuff ballots. Every tidbit of "questionable" actions were by campaign/party workers. This has nothing to do with illegal voters: it has everything to do with illegal campaigners.

Back to Point Two: A high count of absentee balloting within two counties - Bladen and Robeson - with even higher counts of non-returns.

Most of the attention has focused on two counties in the Ninth: Bladen and Robeson, in the southeast corner of the state near the South Carolina border. Notably, each of the affidavits provided by Democratic attorneys involved voters in Bladen County, and one man said that Dowless himself had stated he was working on absentee ballots for Harris in the county.

Michael Bitzer, a politics professor at Catawba College who obsessively follows North Carolina, documented the unusual trend in those counties: They had a much higher rate of mail-in absentee ballots that were requested but not returned, compared to other counties in the Ninth District...

And at the district level, according to Bitzer’s calculations, the Ninth had a much higher rate of unreturned absentee ballots than any other district in North Carolina...

If you follow the link back to Vox, you'll see the charts showing the discrepancies. The volume of non-returns jumps way out of the scope of statistical norms compared to the other counties.

What makes this matter really striking is how the response has been. The state's Elections Board - the oversight authority - is freaking out:

The state board took these allegations seriously enough to vote unanimously — with four Democratic members, four Republicans, and one unaffiliated member — not to certify the results from the Ninth District earlier this week.

Democrats want further investigation into these various allegations of odd behavior and possible tampering, and the state board seems ready to pursue the matter. At the end of the day, North Carolina law allows the elections board to call for a new election if there is evidence that casts doubt on the basic fairness of the vote. The number of ballots in doubt or in question doesn’t appear to make a difference...

The Harris campaign may yet win the argument that overturning the results shouldn't happen. The statistical oddities may not point to an overall attempt to rig the ballots by messing with the absentee/mail-in voting.

But something is rotten in the State of Denmark Counties of Bladen and Robeson. An honest investigation into what happened in those places and how the entire 9th District may have been subverted needs to take place.

 

Waiting For the Week It All Goes Down

It's been established that federal investigators clamp down on issuing indictments or make public statements about cases that would affect things in the months before an election - which is THE reason James Comey will NEVER be forgiven for that nothingburger of a "But Her Emails" report the week before Nov. 9 2016 - so now that the midterms are over (and Thanksgiving done and did) there's a ton of expectations about Mueller's ongoing special counsel cases surrounding Russia's interference in the 2016 elections.

The buzz is out there that Mueller has been sitting on "dozens" of sealed indictments, with various trump Inner Circle players - Roger Stone, donnie junior himself - reportedly telling their friends they're facing charges. trump himself has been going through noticeable mood swings in public, and had re-upped his attacks on Mueller post-election.

With yesterday's announcement that Mueller is pulling Paul Manafort's plea agreement over the fact that Manafort has continued lying to investigators, we're facing a likely moment for those sealed indictments to go out, linking Manafort's culpability to the people about to get arrested.

An interesting side note is "why did Manafort endanger his plea deal in the first place?" I caught this little tidbit on Twitter:

Quick link to Emptywheel here:

Paulie can’t help himself. According to Mueller’s team, he has kept lying and lying since entering the cooperation agreement.

After signing the plea agreement, Manafort committed federal crimes by lying to the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Special Counsel’s Office on a variety of subject matters, which constitute breaches of the agreement. The government will file a detailed sentencing submission to the Probation Department and the Court in advance of sentencing that sets forth the nature of the defendant’s crimes and lies, including those after signing the plea agreement herein.
As the defendant has breached the plea agreement, there is no reason to delay his sentencing herein.

As I noted back in September, the standard the government has to prove to claim Manafort has breached his agreement is just “good faith,” as compared to preponderance of the evidence with Rick Gates...

Just about the only explanation for Manafort’s actions are that — as I suggested — Trump was happy to have Manafort serve as a mole in Mueller’s investigation.
But Mueller’s team appears to have no doubt that Manafort was lying to them. That means they didn’t really need his testimony, at all. It also means they had no need to keep secrets — they could keep giving Manafort the impression that he was pulling a fast one over the prosecutors, all while reporting misleading information to Trump that he could use to fill out his open book test. Which increases the likelihood that Trump just submitted sworn answers to those questions full of lies...

If Manafort was an attempt to subvert the investigation within, it didn't work. If it did anything, it revealed that Mueller's team has more damaging - and VERIFIABLE - information on hand condemning a lot of players in trump's world. Worse, Mueller's investigators gave trump enough room to condemn himself by likely answering their questionnaire all wrong.

All this means one thing: a lot of people are facing a lot of jail time (unless trump breaks every foundation of the Constitution first). What does this actually mean?

The most likely targets of the indictment will be every person who showed up at the June  9 2016 meeting at Trump Tower between Russians and trump's campaign. This is huge: the most direct link of trump's people to a foreign power in discussions to get aid from that foreign power to steal the election.

So who we know was AT the meeting:

Americans
donald trump junior, inner circle family confidant
Jared Kushner, trump's son-in-law and major campaign advisor
Paul Manafort, at the time trump's campaign manager

Russians
Natalia Veselnitskaya, a Russian lawyer with Kremlin connections
Irakly Kaveladze, a Georgian-American, under investigation for money laundering
Rinat Akhmetshin, a Russian-American lobbyist accused of ties to Russian intelligence
Anatoli Samochornov, Vesenlitskaya's translator

Brit
Rob Goldstone, business go-between and media PR for Russian entertainers/ connected figures.

(If anyone noticed anybody hiding behind the coffee cart in the corner, I hope they get named too)

It's unlikely the Russians will see a courtroom in the U.S. but any charges will restrict their ability to travel outside of Russia. So the real damage is going to hit the Americans and the Brit Goldstone (unless he flees jurisdiction, but I doubt the UK government will give him any protection).

While the direct participants are in serious danger, there's a question mark about the people who knew the meeting happened but didn't personally attend. They could be on the hook - under charge of conspiracy, or related charges to any criminal activity that happened because of that meeting - and it may explain the "dozens of indictments" that insiders say are out there.

It would be interesting to see how broad a net Mueller will cast when the indictments go out.

He'd better do it quick, before we get distracted by our Saturnalia decorating and party plans.

Things That Need to Happen In Florida Before 2020

With the recounting all finished and the sad reality of Republicans winning the Governor and Senate races - DAMMIT FLORIDA RICK SCOTT IS A MEDICARE FRAUD DID YOU EVER UNDERSTAND THE SEVERITY OF THAT - the first thing to do is wipe away the tears and the second thing to do is get prepared for the chaos that will be 2020.

It is going to be a nasty election cycle, a Presidential one where the choices are going to be a handful of Democrats primarying in the spring and the Republicans amped up to defend a goddamned con artist in trump.

But a lot of other things can be on the ballot as well, above all reform amendments that can curtail a lot of the criminal misdeeds of a Florida legislature / Governor's office.

The voters just approved the amendment that would re-enfranchise ex-felons, allowing a million or more non-violent parolees to regain their rights as citizens to vote. That's a positive boon to turnout.

More needs to be done though.

Actual turnout is depressingly low. Population is 20 million, with around 16 million eligible to vote. Yet we currently have 13.3 million registered... and it's looking like barely over 8 million actually cared to vote. How much of that poor turnout is due to voter suppression, how much due to voter indifference?

There's solid evidence that the aggressive gerrymandering that affected this state the last twenty years or more discourages turnout. While anti-gerrymander amendments have passed this decade, the GOP-controlled Legislature and Governor's office have kept figuring out loopholes and means to ignore court orders, crafting districts that still favor their party in partisan ways. With another map redraw coming up for 2020 (the Census is coming), and the likelihood Florida may see another Congressional seat added, the shifting of the map is unavoidable.

If the Democratic party has any concern about breaking the decades-long grip the GOP has had on this state - a grip that has hurt our schools, poisoned our waters, and dismisses our rights - they need to approach this next election cycle in two ways.

One: push for amendment referenda that will crimp gerrymandering (such as an independent map-making committee, and stricter definitions to ensure non-partisan intent), that will improve voter turnout (by opening Early Voting more broadly and by forcing the counties to improve polling access with better voting equipment and more paid personnel), and that will ensure voter turnout (by creating universal voter registration, free IDs, same-day registration, and/or other reforms).

Two: by campaigning and challenging every available state and federal office with reliable local candidates, whether they be progressive or centrist. Florida Democrats still have problems recruiting and promoting for local elections (partly because the party leadership is wary of getting out-there Progressives that would alienate voters the way certain wingnut Far Right candidates would be for Republicans) to where local voters have few reasons to show up to vote. To hell with that. Get the best possible people to run for the State Lege. Get the local teachers (look at Wisconsin they elected a teacher to Governor) angry about low wages, get the local fishermen watching their businesses waste away in toxic algae, get the college-age Millennial railing against the gun violence that devastated her schools. Every seat needs to be challenged. Every voter needs to hear a Democratic voice arguing FOR better pay, cleaner water, safer lives.

2020 is gonna be a zoo: the train wreck that is trump makes that obvious. But Florida needs to tune that noise out and focus on what matters. Saving our state from Far Right misrule.

Get working. Two years goes by faster than you realize.

List of groups to seek out:

Indivisible

Common Cause Florida

League of Women Voters Florida

Lemme know who else to add that will be running amendment petitions for 2020!

Turkey Sacrifice Day 2018

I need to note that I have finally run into a Pagan - all my friends are Heathens dontcha know - and she was not entirely thrilled to hear me call Thanksgiving a Pagan Turkey Sacrifice Day. Especially since I didn't name which deity the poor bird was getting sacrificed to.

So I need to find out of there's a God/Goddess that oversees the fumbling of footballs that were caused by the unfortunate collisions into the posterior of an offensive linesman.

For yea verily, this IS the 6th year anniversary of the infamous Butt Fumble. (Mark Sanchez is playing today as a backup QB for Washington)

But let's go back discussing to WHOM we are sacrificing turkeys.

I got money on the Native American legend of the Thunderbird.

In the meantime, enjoy your sacrifice of Ben Franklin's favorite feathered foe!

Feeling Askew At The Moment

There's stressful situations at work and I'm losing focus on this year's NaNoWriMo project and I'm not entirely sure I'll even get out of bed for much of the Thanksgiving weekend...

So you get a Maru with a magnifying glass.

Good luck with the turkey bombers.

Sliding Down Into the Darker Days of a trumpian Winter

(Note: this is my 1500th blog posting here at You Might Notice a Trend. Just saying. Been a long strange and on occasion horrifying trip with miles to go)

As the post-midterms shakeup here in the U.S. works out the recounts and backroom backstabbing, there are a few clear signs of how dark a winter we're about to endure.

Above all, trump is facing a well-situated Democratic-controlled House in Congress. Dems are currently looking at a 36 seat advantage over Republicans at 229 (expecting 237) and a clear amount of room to pass majority votes (needing 219 seats).

The immediate real-world implication here is that the House under Democratic control can perform the oversight into trump's political and financial abuses that's been needed since Day One. Under rules set in 1924 for example, the chair of the House Ways and Means committee can request access to trump's tax returns (there would, of course, have to be a reason that can stand up in court). The House will have reasons to make such requests: Best example will be the serious allegations into trump's violations of the Emoluments Clause. The House Oversight and Reform Committee (yes, they have one) will certainly be looking into the amount of money trump has been getting from his DC hotel and other properties from foreign powers, which would require looking at his previous years' income statements to compare and contrast.

The threat of looking at trump's tax records are two-fold: One, they can provide evidence of questionable business practices such as money laundering; Two, they can reveal the fallacy of trump's bragging over his personal wealth (he keeps talking like he's a billionaire but his tax returns may reveal much of that is tied up into loans and debt). The second one would be the hardest on trump because it will be a huge hit to his twisted ego.

Just on exposing trump's tax returns alone, Democrats will strike a severe blow at trump-World's bubble.

If there is any comfort (grrrr, never) for trump, it's that impeachment is an unlikely event this coming congressional cycle. Democrats may see the merits of trying to remove a dangerous figure from the White House, but actual removal is still up to a two-thirds majority in the Senate and the current Republican majority there prevents that no matter what.

What the Democratic House can and will do is expose trump's greater sins: the horrific immigration policy decisions, pushing back against trump's insane tariff EOs, critiquing trump's foreign policy miscues on Korea and the Middle East, trump's continued use of violent rhetoric stirring up white supremacist and antisemitic forces. Some of these fights can sustain Democratic outrage into the 2020 Presidential elections and keep independent voters away from backing trump that November.

Also at stake is the ongoing Mueller investigation: trump can try to get the DoJ to shut it down but the House Democrats can intervene - through funding issues, and through their own oversight investigations - to keep Mueller going. trump may be able to interfere but it won't do much now.

And the reports post-election suggest it may be too late. Per tradition, Mueller put a cap on issuing indictments or other public actions during the two months before the November 2018 general vote - something Comey failed to do in 2016, grrrrrrrrrrrrrr - in order to avoid affecting that vote. With the election done, Mueller can issue the indictments he's apparently been sitting on (via John Schindler at the Observer):

To abide by Justice Department rules, Mueller went silent for almost two months before the midterms, to avoid any appearance of election interference, but the Special Counsel’s office is now renewing the public side of their investigation. Team Mueller is reported to be working on the final draft of their report on the president and his Russian ties in 2016. Whatever that report says, it’s not likely to be flattering to Team Trump.

Worse for the White House, Mueller’s prosecutors are widely believed to be closing in on two people close to the president, Roger Stone and Donald Trump, Jr. Stone, the self-proclaimed Republican “ratf*cker,” has spoken openly of his fears of impending indictment over his links to WikiLeaks in 2016. Don Jr. is reported to be concerned as well, since he appears to have lied to Federal investigators about the fateful June 9, 2016 Trump Tower meeting with Russian intelligence officials.

That June 9th meeting is key: it's physical evidence of Russian interaction with an American political campaign, something that is in violation of serious laws. Nearly every person who is linked to that moment is likely facing indictment (if they haven't flipped already).

When Mueller informs the public of more indictments is an open question. That they are coming, however, is not. And there are lots of them. The Special Counsel has been at work for almost 18 months now. An Intelligence Community official who assisted the Special Counsel’s investigation told me this week that Team Mueller is holding “dozens of sealed indictments” of people associated with the president, his 2015-16 campaign, and his administration. “Nobody who’s close to the Russians is getting out of this,” said the IC official...

What will happen - outside of trump trying to use his pardon powers in a last-ditch effort to avoid criminal charges on himself - leaves trump facing a dire situation in his political stance. Above all, facing the likelihood he will lose his own family members getting indicted.

trump operates in a bubble, his own comfort zone where the most trusted allies are his own flesh-and-blood (and in-laws). A Bad Boss to everyone else, trump prefers handlers he knows HAS to rely on his own criminal misdeeds to thrive. His children have no other identity outside of being HIS kids: Ivanka in particular - whose unprofitable patents just got approved by a China we're supposed to be in tariff wars against - would have been kicked out of any other West Wing given the fights she's had with other staffers.

Look at how donnie junior was involved in trump's 2016 campaign to begin with. Nearly every other figure between trump and Russia - the ones he trusted most, like Stone and Manafort - will likely be unavailable to help him run ANYTHING once the Mueller hammer comes down.

How do you think trump can operate without trusted people?

This a guy whose management style is conflict: getting people to vie for his attention and favor regardless how it disrupts the jobs that need to get done. trump is going to have to rely more and more on self-serving backstabbers - hi, Bolton! - with fewer and fewer competent people willing to put up with trump's bullshit.

In the short-term, we're likely to see - we're starting to see it now with reports of Chief of Staff Kelly and Homeland Secretary Neilsen on the outs - a massive wave of Cabinet firings and resignations and intense instability of our government's administration.

In the long-term, we're likely to see - and trump's ongoing war against immigrants and Black voters is evidence of it - a political re-election campaign (and an imploding Republican Party) devolve into outright racism and domestic terrorism to bully its way to another illegal victory.

As the Starks kept warning us, Winter was coming. And now a trumpian winter is here, threatening to last well into 2020.

Gods help us.

Veterans Day: It Rains On Our Soldiers All The Time (w/ Update)

It is, again, the Eleventh Month and the Eleventh Day coming up on the Eleventh Hour when the guns were ordered to stop across Europe one hundred years ago.

100th Anniversaries are a big deal. A full century has happened between the end of World War I to now. It made sense for the nations of the world to pause and gather at the memorials dotted across the battlefields where the fallen were laid to rest, and so many of the nations that fought on the Western Front - the allies of France, Great Britain, United States, the opponents that were Germany, Austria and Hungary - sent their leaders to stand for us in honor of those brave men who lost their lives.

Well, kinda. The United States tried to send our leader, but that just happens to be the Loser of the Popular Vote donald trump at the moment, and well...

President Donald Trump could not attend a commemoration in France for U.S. soldiers and marines killed during World War One on Saturday because rain made it impossible to arrange transport, the White House said.

The last minute cancellation prompted widespread criticism on social media and from some officials in Britain and the United States that Trump had “dishonored” U.S. servicemen.

The president was scheduled to pay tribute at a ceremony at the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery in Belleau, about 85 km (50 miles) east of Paris, with his wife Melania. But light steady rain and a low cloud ceiling prevented his helicopter from traveling to the site.

If that sounds like a bullshit excuse, because you'd think our Marine One helicopters ought to be able to handle bad weather, or because there's this wonderful option call CARS that could have been used to DRIVE across France - c'mon, the scenery this time of year can't be THAT bad - then you'd be right. The weather wasn't bad enough to stop trump from sending his own Chief of Staff John Kelly in his stead.

A lot of other people pointed out the stupidity of trump's move:

Ben Rhodes, who served as deputy national security adviser for strategic communications under President Barack Obama, said the excuse about the inclement weather did not stand up.

“I helped plan all of President Obama’s trips for 8 years,” he wrote on Twitter. “There is always a rain option. Always.”

Despite the light rain, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a moving ceremony in Compiegne, northeast of Paris, to mark the 100th anniversary of the signing of the World War One armistice.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attended his own ceremony to pay tribute to Canadian troops killed at Vimy Ridge, on the battlefields of northeastern France.

Instead, trump pretty much stayed in his hotel room all day and sulked and tweeted his conspiracy nonsense about Democrats "STEALING ELECTIONS ZOMG". trump could have easily done all that from his own worthless country clubs and not wasted everyone else's time and money on this trip.

Gods, what a waste of oxygen trump has been.

Either trump was terrified of standing in the rain - the LEAST any elected official could do to honor our soldiers - or he's completely forgotten how umbrellas work.

Yeah I know, cheap shot. BUT TOTALLY DESERVED.

It's deserved because every other President takes it as an act of honor to stand in the rain:

Michael Beschloss' twitter

Obama never went hiding from the rain (and knew how umbrellas work):

President Obama's Memorial Day ceremony at the National Cemetery in Elwood, Ill., was stopped temporarily, and then canceled outright, while a severe thunderstorm passed through Northern Illinois.

As lighting cracked and thunder clapped, the President went to the podium to tell the thousands in the crowd to seek shelter.

Holding an umbrella in a massive rain storm, the President told the crowd, "Excuse me, everybody listen up. We are a little bit concerned about lightening. This may not be safe. So I know that all of you are here to commemorate the fallen and that's why we're here. What we'd like to do is, if possible, have people move back to their cars, and if this passes in the next 15-20 minutes, I will stick around and we'll come up and start up the ceremony again. But we don't want to endanger anyone, particularly children in the audience. So I'd ask everybody to very calmly, move back to your cars. I'm going to move back to mine. We will wait to make sure that the thunder has passed. A little bit of rain doesn't hurt anybody, but we don't want anybody being struck by lightning.

"God bless you everybody. We will be staying here and will make an announcement shortly," he said.

from AP Photo

THAT is what Presidents do.

trump doesn't even TRY.

Not even when we as a nation need to honor and respect those who TRULY served our nation, both our fallen and our living soldiers.

It rains on our soldiers all the time.

from NPR

But trump will never care. For him, it's NEVER been about respecting others.

(Update 11/12/18): And now the coward refuses to go to Monday's Veterans Day observance because of the weather reports claiming it will rain at Arlington National Cemetery.

Absolutely no true courage in him. Absolutely no respect for others at all.

Update On The Madness Midterm

Oh No. Not Again.

(via the Tampa Bay Times) Florida ordered mandatory machine recounts in three statewide elections Saturday for the first time in state history.

Secretary of State Ken Detzner issued a one-page order directing all 67 counties to conduct a machine recount of more than 8.2 million combined ballots over the next five days in the races for governor, U.S. Senator and commissioner of agriculture.

Yes, of course, only FLORIDA could make the 2018 Midterms election cycle THIS MUCH CRAZIER.

It didn't help that the state's election services are still seriously compromised, with broken electronic machines, understaffed county offices, confusing precinct locations, long lines, and struggling volunteers (those are the ones I feel worst about: many of them are honest and capable and dealing with a lot of top-down problems).

We've got reports about the Broward County ballot not showing the key US Senate race for people to vote on, creating a massive gap of unaccounted voters.

Long before I started blogging, I lived in South Florida. I was there for the 2000 Debacle. It wasn't fun, stressful as hell knowing the fate of the entire nation hung the balance...

This election cycle, with all the other things that have happened since Tuesday, there's not AS MUCH at stake at the national level - pretty much the US Senate race between Nelson (please) and Scott (NOOOOOOO) - other than how much of a margin the Republicans control the Senate next term (if it's a 1-vote lead all of a sudden McConnell has to work harder to keep his troops in line, if it's a 3-vote margin he has more leeway). The way things are counting out in Arizona, whether Scott wins or loses becomes a bigger deal.

What *is* at stake is at the state level: whether the Republicans retain control of the Governor's seat with DeSantis or if Democrats can force a power-share getting Gillum into that seat. If Gillum DOES recover and gets the win with the machine count (it all depends on if a lot of missing ballots in Blue counties - hello again, Dade - and the absentees by mail are counted in time) this would be a bigger deal.

Statewide, the Dems will have a say in how the gerrymander efforts by the GOP are done (which bodes well for Dems). Gillum would ensure the felon re-enfranchisement amendment is enforced, improving the odds of higher turnout (which favors Dems a bit more).

At the national level, a Gillum win would revitalize an otherwise down-in-the-mouth progressive voting base. For all the wins that DID happen for Democrats and Progressives - winning back the US House, winning more governorships and state offices in the Great Lakes and Midwest states, more women and minorities in office - most of the big-name races (Beto O'Rourke in Texas, Gillum in Florida, Abrams in Georgia) did not pan out.

Beto's loss was close, but not close enough to force a recount. Abrams' run for the Governor's seat in Georgia is still in question because of the closeness of the results (it may yet - IT NEEDS TO - go to recount), but if she prevails it would be the first true big crack in the GOP Southern Strategy. A Black Woman winning in what was a solid Conservative (and historically racist) state would be almost as big a win as Obama winning the Presidency in 2008.

Gillum's win - if it happens through recount - would be almost as big as an Abrams win. Florida may STILL be a Southern state with its own dark history of racism, but the last 30 years or so has seen this state wobble between its redneck leanings or its East Coast Transplant/International(Caribbean)  leanings. That Florida may be ready for a Black man running Tallahassee (well, okay, running Florida) is a big step but it wouldn't be as Earth-shattering as flipping Georgia.

There's still a lot to worry about: there's no guarantee the recounts mean a Gillum or Nelson victory (although both would be a huge relief to me personally) here in Florida. There's every chance the Republicans still in charge of a lot of things - and every chance Rick "No Ethics" Scott tries to shoot the recount down - will mess things up to where the Supreme Court interferes AGAIN with this mess.

But after the blues of Tuesday, this bit of Hope this weekend keeps me going.

P.S.: GOD, I know as a Unitarian you don't listen to me much, but PLEASE for the LOVE OF YOU make sure the recount favors Nelson and Gillum. Please. PPPPPLLLLLEEEEAASSSSEEEEE (gives the Almighty that pleading kitteh-eye expression)

Blood On the Streets of Ventura County

Do you wanna know how bad gun violence has gotten in the United States?

We just had a mass shooting at yet another crowded bar, this time in Thousand Oaks, CA where some of the people getting killed at this shooting had survived the biggest mass shooting of our time in Las Vegas just one year ago.

That's right. Gun violence has gotten so commonplace that people are starting to rack up repeat appearances like frequent flyer miles.

The NRA can start a goddamn giveaway. Survive ten shootings, get one shooting free.

This is where our nation is right now. We're almost to one mass shooting a day.

The gun nuts are starting to run out of fresh victims, and are getting to the leftovers.

GODS HELP US.

Must Read Post-Election Article NOT Written By Me

I warned Ed. I warned them ALL.

I said I was gonna steal this from Gin And Tacos.

I KNOW WHY YOU'RE SAD. About the post-2018 Election Blues.

Click the link.

Read in full.

Don't forget to check my LINKS tab above to follow other Reasonably Sane blogs across the Intertubes.

Update: DISREGARD

It's been awhile since I've said anything about this, but my WittyLibrarian shop of items - mugs, mousepads, shirts, and more - is still up at CafePress (and I think you can purchase through Amazon.com now).

UPDATE: ongoing problems with managing the CafePress site has gotten the better of me. I've closed the stores down. I'll be moving my WittyLibrarian logo to better climes...

Election Night 2018: I Am Loathing My State Right Now

I just got home from work, starting to tune in to the results, and...

...

Jesus.

I am surrounded by evil fcking people.

I know it is early right now and the results for Gillum and Nelson aren't resolved yet, but JESUS EFFING CHRIST it shouldn't even be like this. DeSantis ran a terrible openly racist campaign. Rick Scott is a GODDAMN MEDICARE FRAUD.

Making things worse is that the state amendments - a lot of which were BAD LAWS that would cause chaos and mismanagement throughout our legal system, and especially the Amendments that fcks up our tax revenue methods - are passing the 60 percent threshold tonight. The worst of them Amendment 5, the one that requires a SUPERMAJORITY vote to pass ANY tax increase, looks like it'll pass. Florida is about to run into the brick wall of massive spending cuts to social aid in order to balance the budget. We're already facing serious funding problems with Child and Family Services, with our schools, with our environmental cleanups. What the hell is gonna happen when all that sh-t gets WORSE?

The results in 2014 bummed me out. The results in 2016 broke my heart.

This? THIS SHIT? I'm gonna start thinking about revenge.

I am not in the mood right now. More angry than anxious now.

BASTARDS.

Election Day 2018: I AM NOT ANXIOUS AT ALL

Heck, no! I'm pretty sure the nation is going to do the RIGHT THING and VOTE BLUE across the board! I'm really... really... NO, REALLY... certain that there's going to be a huge turnout of young voters and women voters and Black voters and Latino voters and happy shiny voters all telling trump to STFU.

Yeah, totally. I'M NOT NERVOUS! REALLY...

Okay, seriously, here's my #IVoted Face:

You see. I'M PERFECTLY FINE. HAPPY I VOTED DEMOCRAT ACROSS THE BOARD. I VOTED FOR AMENDMENT 4 FOR VOTER ENFRANCHISEMENT TOO. YES. I AM HAPPY. I AM HAPPPPYYYYYYYYYY... (gets hit with the tranq) zzzzzzzzzzzzz

(Not to be woken until Liveblogging later tonight)

Midterms 2018: Anxiety? YES

This weekend's SNL midterm ad is pretty much how I'm feeling about this Tuesday.

After the nightmare that was the 2016 results, and given the sad history of Democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, I'm not going to feel any semblance of relief until after watching the results Wednesday morning and making GODDAMN CERTAIN DEMS AT LEAST TAKE THE US HOUSE, GILLUM WINS THE GOVERNOR'S RACE AND NELSON CREAMS SCOTT FOR THE SENATE SEAT! PLEASE VOTERS! DON'T F-CK US UP NOW! PLEASE!

(Insert painful scream here)

Midterms 2018: Hope and Dread

I feel hope from all the reports about the increased voter turnout for the early voting, and how a lot of it are the student-youth voters turning up at a record pace.

I feel dread from all the reports about the GOP using every voter suppression tactic in the books and getting away with most of them.

I feel hope from the reports of how people are helping minorities - especially in North Dakota and Kansas - work around the suppression efforts so that their votes WILL count.

I feel dread that the GOP is still gonna try to steal the midterms like they stole 2016 (GET OUT OF HERE, RUSSIAN SOCIAL MEDIA BOTS).

The best thought I have is "Turnout Beats Suppression". The GOP can't stop every vote, and can't flip every ballot false. If the final polling says Dems won by +6 it's gonna cause a stink if the GOP get +6 of the results. So they can only cheat just a little bit, just enough to eke out "wins" at +1 or +2 while claiming the polls were wrong after all.

But the more people vote - and the more they vote BLUE - the harder it gets to cheat. Too many people will figure out there should have been no way the votes went for the Republicans, and there will be hell to pay when they figure that out.

THIS IS WHY TURNOUT MATTERS. Especially when the numbers point to a majority of voters being Democratic or Left-Leaning (especially in an election cycle where the Indy voters are adamantly opposed to trump and the GOP). This is why I hope enough voters have had enough of decades of state misrule by Republicans here in Florida.

I am hoping Andrew Gillum's campaign to be Florida's Governor succeeds, and he can clean up the decades of mess the Republicans have made.

I hope Bill Nelson (GO GATORS) beats Rick "Medicare Fraud" Scott, a crooked SOB who SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN Governor in the first place (twice!) >:( I hope Nelson's win will be part of flipping control of the Senate away from that obstructionist monster McConnell.

I hope enough voters hating trump know they can change control of the US House to Democrat and force that corrupt con artist to answer to the law.

GET THE VOTE OUT THIS TUESDAY NOVEMBER 6th.

Vote Blue.

This matters.

For the LOVE of GOD, this matters.

First They Came For the Americans Born Here, Because The Far Right Are Hate-Driven Bastards

Civis Romanus Sum.

There is power in being a citizen. The power to vote. The power to speak up. The power - in theory, sadly not so much in practice - to walk down streets and go to work, and go to eateries and clubs and temples and events without harassment. The power to stand against tyrants and say "No."

This is why tyrants twist the laws of citizenship, why dictators demonize those they would deem an underclass without rights or power, why corrupt forces do everything they can to demean and harm those they view as inferior or "sub-human".

This is why trump and the Republican Party are threatening to subvert the entire concept of "birthright citizenship" and violate the 14th Amendment to pursue their godless war against legal immigration.

This isn't about illegals crossing the border: what trump and his ilk are looking to do is deny rights and protections to anyone they would NOT deem American.

The 14th Amendment exists precisely because conservative extremists we know as the southern slaveowners pushed for the Dred Scott legal decision, where Chief Justice Taney committed serious overreach in declaring ALL Black Americans - even the Freed Blacks who lived in Free states - had no rights under the law. Horrified by the implications, the Abolitionist Republicans - no relation to the Far Right GOP we have today - made sure after the Civil War that: 

All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

That's it. If the First Amendment and Second Amendment and all the other Amendments are set in stone, then the 14th Amendment should be as well. If you're here, born here or worked to become here, you are a citizen and you have rights.

To a group like the Far Right, desperate to fearmonger and demonize the Other, they despise the 14th Amendment more than any other (even the First).

I wrote about this before. The haters now in charge of the Republican Party would like nothing more than to white-out (literally) this amendment that prevents them from abusing their political power to persecute anyone. Just think of all the groups that Republicans led by the demagogue trump repeatedly insult on Fox Not-News or the other outlets: Gays, Blacks, Latinos, Jews, Feminists (really just Women in general)...

The Conservative rank-and-file from the McCarthyism Era just loved pointing their fingers at people and accusing them of Un-American behaviors. They ruined a lot of lives over rumor and lies, and that was even with a 14th Amendment assuring Due Process and legal protections. Those McCarthyites never went away: Just look at media screechers like Coulter, and Limbaugh, and Hannity, and O'Reilly; Just look at politicos like Jeff Sessions and Lindsey Graham so eager to violate every other person's rights with glee. And now they want to go further and bloodier than their 1950s progenitors ever went.

Do you HONESTLY THINK the Far Right will respect any Gay or Trans or Black or Latino or Muslim or Jew or Hindu or Female if every member of those classes no longer had citizenship, no longer had the power to defend themselves and speak up for their rights?

And do you HONESTLY THINK those haters on the Far Right will STOP the persecutions of others as they succeed in hounding each victim into flight, cages, or the grave?

If we as Americans ever lose the 14th Amendment protections of citizenship, the Far Right will immediately go on the warpath against ANYONE they deem Un-American. And that's a list of people that can grow faster than a lot of you realize (just ask Paul Newman).

Just remember the poem from Martin Niemoller, a German pastor who was a supporter of Hitler's Third Reich up until 1934 (when he found out his own phones were tapped by the Gestapo), and who became enough of a critic to end up in a concentration camp in 1938 (He later regretted his support of the Nazis and had to answer for some of his own Antisemitic statements from that era).

He wrote later (there are variations of this, but they all follow the same pattern):

First they came for the Communists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Communist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out— because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

Where do YOU think you're gonna be on that list? Sitting comfortably on the sidelines while trump's MAGA Hat Brigades coming knock down everyone's doors once our citizenship rights are gone? You think you can last past the union people, or the religious groups?

These haters are not going to stop until they purge everyone on their personal Shit List. Your skin color, your gender, your religious belief, your political belief... ALL of that will be under scrutiny and you WILL be found wanting unless you sell yourself completely out.

You willing to do that?

What IS the cost to you if the Citizenship clause of the 14th Amendment goes away?

I will tell you now: the cost will be your soul AND your life.

Stand up. Get off your GODDAMN KNEES and STAND UP AS A CITIZEN OF THE UNITED STATES.

Everything At Stake: 2018 Midterms

I normally feel that way about every election: the Presidential cycles AND the Midterms. Every election matters because we need sane and effective leadership to keep our government running and to ensure our protections and rights.

This year, it feels like a war. Everything sitting atop landmines ready to go off.

All I can do from here is vote in the Florida and Congressional seats, and vote on state and county level referendums. It doesn't seem like much, just one vote, but when you add it to 65 million others, it SHOULD matter.

I felt queasy in the leadup to the 2016 elections because so much was at stake then - a choice between Hillary and a goddamned racist sexist con artist on the Russian payroll - and it horrifies me that I feel worse than that now.

Because back then there was a belief, a hope, that the elections wouldn't break down and that Hillary would get enough votes to win the Electoral College. She got the votes, but thanks to the broken nature of the EC - and serious evidence of foreign meddling and local suppression efforts - she didn't win that. So we got stuck with the walking toxic dump instead.

And this election cycle, for all the talk about the Blue Wave - where the Democrats are likely (but not guaranteed) to win control of the U.S. House, and flip a number of governorships and state legislatures of key battleground states - I keep seeing reports of voter suppression by Republicans across those same states and am terrified the same shit that hurt our elections in 2016 is gonna kill our voting rights in 2018 altogether.

Florida is one of those states facing the problem of voter suppression. It doesn't help I am surrounded by far too many MAGA morans to feel good about my state's chances of waking up from this trumpian nightmare we're all stuck in. The polls may tell me that the governor's race may prove historic with Andrew Gillum winning, I'm still not seeing good numbers on the key Senatorial race with Bill Nelson (GODDAMMIT FLORIDA, WHAT PART OF "RICK SCOTT IS A MEDICARE FRAUD" DO YOU KEEP IGNORING?). I can vote and hope that sanity prevails across the board, that Florida Dems claim all the key seats to end 20-plus years of corrupt Republican rule here... but Gods, I *hoped* last time...

This is it, everybody. To every friend I have, to every reader who skips through here, to every sane (relatively speaking, this IS Florida) person in the Sunshine State, PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD GET OUT THE VOTE THIS MIDTERMS AND VOTE DEMOCRATIC ACROSS THE BOARD.

You can Early Vote right now! Find the Early Vote center - each major town/city should have at least one polling place - and show up with your Voter ID card and photo ID and take care of it now if you're worried about the lines on Tuesday November 6. Early Voting ends Sunday November 4!

If you're voting on Election Day, remember you HAVE THE RIGHT during the day to take an hour from work to go vote! Plan ahead to make sure you do so on the way to work - map out the drive between your home (which should be near the precinct) and your workplace to make sure it's doable. The polls close at 7:00 PM but if you get there before closing YOU CAN STILL WAIT IN LINE TO VOTE. If you show up to vote with your IDs and everything and the polling place claims you're not registered, you HAVE THE RIGHT TO REQUEST A PROVISIONAL BALLOT AND A RECEIPT SHOWING YOU VOTED (after that, get a lawyer and sue the State GOP for suppressing your right to vote).

PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD VOTE THIS YEAR.

PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD VOTE DEMOCRATIC.

Everything is at stake. EVERYTHING.

Blood On the Streets Of Squirrel Hill

And today there was another mass shooting this time in a Pittsburgh suburb.

This time a Synagogue. A man with military firepower showed up reportedly shouting "Kill all the Jews" and opened fire. The body count is currently at 8 dead. At least three police officers were shot and wounded, there may well be more wounded (and dying) as well.

For what's been found about the shooter, his social media apparently marked him as a rabid Antisemitic bastard. His recent tweets were about the "Caravan" trump had been ranting against the past few weeks, and how the shooter believed "the Jews" were behind that "invasion" about to doom the entire nation.

In an odd twist, the shooter may have been a Far Right wingnut but he hated trump... because trump had Jews (his son-in-law Jared for example) on his staff. That's right. We're dealing with an asshole who thinks trump isn't enough of an asshole worth his support.

So here's your thread. This entire week (and it's not even over yet) has been one violent attack after another by angry men driven to that edge by Far Right Republican rhetoric.

• Angry White Guy in Kentucky with a history of domestic violence and signs of racism (posting rants against Black Lives Matter) goes off on Wednesday, tried to break into a Black church service, then settled on shooting dead two Blacks at a Kroger store before getting caught. Another White guy in the parking lot heard the shots and pulled his own gun on the murderer, only for the killer to beg mercy because "Whites don't shoot Whites." (THAT is the fucking White Privilege mindset in one goddamn quote)
• Angry White/Filipino Guy with a criminal history who obsesses with being Pro-trump wanted to kill everyone on trump's Enemies List, so he ships off more than a dozen bombs across the nation. Luckily most of the bombs were reportedly intentional duds (a scare tactic), but a handful of them were working when the bomb squads got to defuse them...
• Angry White Guy in Pittsburgh hated Jews, found justification in the Caravan fearmongering, and went on his killing spree.

All three of them with key similarities:

• Anger
• Fear of Diversity, or that the rights of minorities will override the rights ("the superiority of" in their eyes) of White (men)
• History of domestic violence (so far in the first two, the Squirrel Hill shooter's full background hasn't been made public yet. But I'd lay good odds he's got at least one restraining order from an ex-wife/ex-girlfriend)
• Existing within a media bubble of Far Right Narrative (the Kentucky shooter didn't show as much of it, but right now the MAGABomber and the Squirrel Hill shooter are both well-documented in social media thriving in that wingnut bubble)

Like Silverman noted before, which I quoted from yesterday: The rhetoric of the Far Right media - bashing Jews, bashing Blacks, bashing Women, bashing Gays, bashing Liberals, bashing everyone not of the Far Right Tribe - is creating a toxic environment where the most unstable and least-controller fringe members are likely to get "triggered" and turn into killers.

The leaders of the Far Right know what they're doing: they get to fill the airwaves with their Fearmongering - based more on emotional hype than on the facts or reality - to trigger enough idiots listening in, and then get to pose on the mainstream channels to beg off "oh well, it wasn't really what we said" or "free speech, bitches" or "he's just a Lone Wolf, you shouldn't portray an entire mob of Angry White Guys like that."

We have a lot of other things out there that can cause or trigger bad behavior in people: Drugs, violent video games, what have you. We take those things into context when dealing with the monsters who get triggered, and we try to keep those sources out of reach by restricting their sale or access, or at least try to counter with counseling and education.

But how can we counter this unending storm of toxic worldview? The Far Right is riling up their base to commit wholeheartedly to the final stage of a Culture War that means violence upon every minority and "non-person" on their checklist of targets.

This isn't a rehash of 1968. This is a bloody remake of 1860.

God help us.

The Far Right Boiling Of the National Mood

Told you I had an alibi:

Before he was arrested for mailing more than a dozen pipe bombs to prominent critics of President Donald Trump — some of which included pictures of the intended targets with a red “X” over their faces — Cesar Sayoc lived a scattered and bizarre life in South Florida.

He was an avid bodybuilder who trained in mixed martial arts and a former exotic dancer and strip club manager who held a string of odd jobs, among them a Papa John’s pizza deliveryman and a DJ. He bought a house in Fort Lauderdale, which was foreclosed on in 2009, lived with his parents in an Aventura condo, and most recently slept in a white van papered with pro-Trump and right-wing stickers.

Along the way, Sayoc racked up a long rap sheet for everything from grand theft and battery to making a bomb threat against Florida Power & Light. He was also accused of domestic violence by a woman who appears to have been his grandmother.

So of course it HAD to be a Florida Man. But it gets funkier:

But of all of his diverse interests, 56-year-old Sayoc’s fervent support for Trump appears to have been his greatest passion in recent years. Sayoc’s social media accounts were filled with photos of him wearing a red Make American Great Again baseball cap, videos of a Trump rally he attended in 2016 and pro-Trump news stories. He also shared racist memes and spouted conspiracy theories.

His Twitter timeline was a greatest-hits collection of right-wing conspiracy theories: that Parkland survivor David Hogg is a government plant, that Oprah Winfrey wants “this whole generation of white people” to die and that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is secretly Adolf Hitler’s daughter...

He lives in a world of Far Right Narrative, a comfort zone for Angry Guys who just happen to angry at minorities, women, libruls, moderates, gays, lesbians, Sportos, Motorheads, Geeks, Sluts, Bloods, Waistoids, and Dweebies (just not the Dickheads, because that's who the Angry Guys are).

It's the same kind of fantasy world that argued WMDs existed in Iraq, that tax cuts can raise wages and create jobs, that Hillary killed a whole list of victims and that Obama was secretly born a Muslim in Kenya. The fantasy world of Fox News and Breitbart and Drudge and Rush and Coulter and D'Souza and Alex Jones and Glenn Beck and O'Reilly and Hannity and Newsmax and more. A veritable industry of conspiracy theory that feeds on itself, with each dollar encouraging a greater lie requiring more members of the Far Right to repeat that lie until it becomes a foundation on which more lies can grow.

It's the same industry that's right now trying desperately to wash their hands of any responsibility for the MAGABomber's reign of error. Either blaming the Libruls for making the Far Right go all bomb-happy, or claiming it's a Lone Wolf who has NOTHING to do with being a red-hat-wearing trumpster (even though the guy is happily posing in pictures at trump rallies and shouting "LOCK HER UP" on videoclips).

But the bomber is NOT a Lone Wolf. There's a string of Far Right actors committing violent act after violent act all tied into that Far Right Narrative of "WE are under Attack From the Dread Other," with the WE being proud Whites of the Sacred Patriarchy (if there are women in this, they support that Patriarchy because it grants only them any power).

That Far Right Narrative is not just sitting there, like a novel on a reading table. It is actively prodding a willing and eager audience to pursue these paths of violence.

If I can link to Adam L Silverman at Balloon Juice:

...We also need to realize that what we’re dealing with is social learning driving terrorism and low intensity political violence. While Tom Nichols, who has been working through his own theory in regard to radicalization where he refers to these types of terrorists as Lost Boys, identified Sayoc’s domestic terrorism campaign without explicitly referring to it, it is actually the social learning and social behavioral drivers of terrorism.  This includes the normal four components of learning: 1) Primary associations, 2) Definitions favorable, unfavorable, and neutralizing to behavior, 3) Imitation, and 4) Reinforcement. It also includes the social learning components of neutralization (of definitions unfavorable to behavior) and drift...

What we have seen this week with Sayoc’s terrorism campaign, as well as with conservative and/or Republican elites and notables (elected officials, appointed officials, pundits, and commenters) and just supporters of the President who continue to toss around the idea that this is all a false flag or a hoax or somehow actually perpetrated by the intended targets to harm the President or the GOP’s electoral chances in two weeks, are perfect examples of social learning in general and neutralization and drift in specific. We can clearly observe:

1. Primary associations in regard to being an objective or subjective supporter of the President.
2. Learning definitions favorable, unfavorable, and neutralizing of behavior. Sayoc clearly learned from the President, as well as other Republican and conservative authority figures, that it is okay to target and vilify former and current Democratic officials or officials appointed by them, center left to left of center funders of liberal and progressive causes, CNN and other news media outlets that the President doesn’t like and often denigrates, and outspoken elite and notable critics of the President. We can also see this at play in the attempts to wave away this terrorist campaign by claiming it is fake news or a hoax perpetrated by the victims.
3. Reinforcement is also clearly present. Specifically, Sayoc received reinforcement from conservative news media and conservative social media as current and former Republican officials, news media figures, commenters, and pundits, as well as just a large number of the President’s supporters talked about and magnified Sayoc’s actions through the attempt to dismiss it with whataboutism and bothsiderism, as well as calling it fake news or a hoax or denying the legitimacy of the victimization of the actual targets.
4. While we haven’t specifically seen imitation yet, it will, unfortunately, likely appear in copycat actions over the next couple of weeks. And potential copycats do not necessarily have to copy the method of trying to make and use pipe bombs sent through the mail.

Both in the run up to today’s arrest and since Sayoc was taken into custody, all five elements of neutralization and drift that I delineated above are clearly explicitly observable. The Republican Party, especially its base membership, realigned to the perspective of the President, as well as conservative news media and conservative social media are all now a tool for radicalization. We can expect to see more Cesar Sayocs until conservative and Republican elites and notables make a stand...

The Republicans never will. They are profiting from this radicalization, and are doubling down with it - alongside voter suppression of minorities and youth voters who lean Democratic - to ensure they retain political power (because with it they can continue to shift wealth from the middle class to the rich (including themselves)).

The Republicans profit from a toxic and boiling stew of hatred, turning up the heat over the last 25 years of post-Cold-War politics to keep themselves at the top of the hill. As Silverman notes:

There are more Cesar Sayocs out there. Just as there were more Dylan Roofs as we saw in Kentucky on Wednesday (a white gunman starting shooting innocent Blacks and even tried to shoot up a Black church during services). And they’re marinating in the President’s and other elite and notable conservatives’ and Republicans’ toxic rhetoric. At some point they’ll reach the point where they have learned both enough of the definitions favorable to neutralize the prohibition against attacking other people, as well as who is an acceptable target from the President, from Republican elected and appointed officials, from Fox News, or from Rush Limbaugh or Hugh Hewitt or others on right wing talk radio, or from conservative social media across a variety of platforms, and when that happens they’ll take action. We can’t predict who the next Cesar Sayoc will be, nor can we predict who he or she, though it is most likely to be a he, will target, nor can we predict when it will happen. But unless something changes and soon, it will happen. And it will happen again and again and again...

The wingnut base of the GOP is just waiting for a sign. All trump has to do is send out the one tweet that says exactly what they want to hear - IT'S OKAY TO KILL OUR ENEMIES - and there will be blood in every street.

This is not guesswork. This has been seen in history again and again. It's been happening right now in real time in places like the Philippines. It is happening with every Angry White Guy yelling at Blacks on airplanes and in cars and at public parks and everywhere else. The anger is boiling. The mindset of violence is right there.

It is only a matter of time before the real bombs go off.

Gods help us.

I Have An Alibi

Today has been totally abuzz about the mass-pipe-bombs-in-the-mail story (via Mary Olmstead at Slate):

A string of suspicious packages addressed to prominent Democratic figures and at least one news outlet have been discovered by the Secret Service in recent days. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have been among the intended recipients of the devices, some of which have been identified as pipe bombs. Here is what we know so far:

The first suspicious package was discovered Monday in the mailbox of well-known liberal donor and philanthropist George Soros’ home in Bedford, New York, authorities said. After a caretaker found the device, a bomb squad detonated it. Authorities described the device as a six-inch-long pipe filled with explosive powder and rigged with a detonator. Federal authorities said they believed the device was hand-delivered, according to the New York Times.

On Wednesday morning, news broke that the Secret Service had intercepted an explosive device addressed to Hillary and Bill Clinton in Westchester County, New York, where they have a home. Soon after, the Secret Service also revealed it had found a device addressed to Barack Obama in Washington, D.C, where he lives. The packages were discovered as part of a routine mail screening, according to a statement, and no one was harmed...

CNN got a package just as they were reporting the stories on the earlier packages. Say hello to the madness of 24/7 Instant Terror Strikes. The CNN pipe was addressed to ex-CIA chief John Brennan, who happens to be 1) a major anti-Trump critic and 2) working at MSNBC, so we're definitely dealing with moronic bombers here.

Anyway:

A fourth suspicious package was reportedly found at the Florida office of Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a former Democratic National Committee chairwoman. NBC News has reported that the suspicious packages sent to Soros, the Clintons, and Obama listed Wasserman Schultz for the return address. CNN reported that the package found at Wasserman Schultz’s office might have actually been intended for former Attorney General Eric Holder: According to CNN, a suspicious package was addressed to Holder, but it was addressed incorrectly and rerouted to the return address. NBC has also reported that Secret Service intercepted a package addressed to Holder, but it is unclear if the two reports are about the same package.

Additional targets seem to be Rep. Maxine Waters, a prominent House Democrat, with the likelihood others may be getting these packages due to delivery methods of the USPS (the Postal Service is currently working to find out if any similar packages are still shipping). The reports note that all of the packages had Wasserman Schultz's address as the return address.

So here's what we know:

1) Bomber(s) specifically wanted Debbie Wasserman Schultz to be the scapegoat.

2) He/She/It can't SPELL worth a damn (spelled Florids...? worst misspell of Florida since 2000) and has no idea where people actually work.

3) Targeted all the major names - not just political figures like Obama and Clintons but also the media critics as well as Soros - routinely mentioned by the Far Right as "enemies" that need eliminating.

4) Bomber(s) had the time and ability - and also the money - to build multiple bombs and then ship them all out at the same time (and at least travel in-person to deliver a select few). With a chance there are MORE of these bombs out there.

5) This is more speculative than fact, but: Bomber(s) may not have sent working bombs: it's a bit surprising none of the pipe bombs have gone off, especially the ones that reportedly were hand-delivered (those are the ones you KNOW you want to go off but are afraid of blowing up in shipment and killing an innocent).

The Far Right are running around claiming this is all a "fake news" attempt by Liberals to label Republicans as mad bomber terrorists just as the midterm elections are reaching Election Day (AKA the "October Surprise" period). Problem is, the simplest explanation is usually the most likely: The simplest explanation is that one of trump's raving supporters in a Red MAGA hat has bought into trump's rhetoric against Democrats and media critics and took the next step towards "action".

Using Wasserman Schultz as the "sender" suggests the bomber(s) has/have a personal grudge against her: the only ones on the Far Left who would do that would be the BernieBro crowd who blamed her for "conspiring" with Hillary to stop Sanders from winning the 2016 primaries. But it would make little or no sense for them to send pipe bombs to still-popular figures like Obama or to prominent trump critics like Brennan. Did any Bernie supporters openly blame Soros for their losses? I don't recall. When it comes to Soros, *his* biggest attackers are ALL on the Far Right.

When you look at the list of targets we know of right now - Hillary (and Bill), Soros, Obama, Brennan, Waters, Holder - they are all the major stars of every Far Right conspiracy theory floating out there. That the bomber(s) come from that world is the solution that makes the most sense.

As for myself, I swear I have nothing to do with any of this. My schemes are more complex, I'd never be so stupid as to use the SAME name on an address, and my real plans involve... uh... wait a second... ooooh, you sly dogs, you almost got me monologing!

I was busy today proctoring an exam for a city hire. That's my excuse and I'M STICKING TO IT.

Update: I TOLD YOU I HAVE AN ALIBI. Dammit, STOP SNIFFING AROUND OPA-LOCKA! I mean, um, ahem, I've never been to Opa-Locka I swear...