Give Me a Minute Here to Rant And Panic about trump... AGAIN

Just to get this bit out of the way (from the Daily Beast):

President Trump on Saturday predicted a stock market crash “the likes of which has not been seen before” if he doesn’t win re-election in 2020. “The Trump Economy is setting records, and has a long way up to go,” Trump wrote on Twitter. “However, if anyone but me takes over in 2020 (I know the competition very well), there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before! KEEP AMERICA GREAT.” The president’s comments came shortly after he hyped up the upcoming launch of his campaign at a Florida rally on Tuesday. Trump has repeatedly claimed that the success of the U.S. stock market depends on him remaining in the White House, though data from Macrotrends suggests the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been about average under him compared to its performance under former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, according to Bloomberg.

Scaremongering motherfucker. The stock markets keep crashing every time trump launches another reckless tariff. The Dow is gonna crash if trump stays in the White House.

Does the Shitgibbon believe that if he's kicked out and a Democrat comes in, every billionaire and investment firm is going to have a conniption and commit financial suicide? HELL NO. They didn't do that when Clinton entered office in 1993 and the markets were already coping with their self-inflicted Great Recession by 2009 when Obama took the oath.

That's because the REAL BILLIONAIRES aren't that petty. Even if a Warren or Sanders wins in 2020, much of Wall Street knows they've got enough going on to keep themselves racking up more millions. Anything a Democratic President can whip up towards regulating their industry, they can delay in the courts long enough to figure out new loopholes.

This is just trump bluffing and bullying... AGAIN.

Because the 2020 campaigning is starting up... AGAIN.

And the internal polling numbers are not favoring trump... AGAIN (Via Raw Story's Matt Chapman):

On Saturday, The Nation writer John Nichols told MSNBC that President Donald Trump’s new internal polls showing him losing key states are “devastating” — and show why his path to re-election may be slipping out of his grasp.

“I would just emphasize these polls are more than a wake-up call. They’re pretty devastating numbers,” said Nichols. “We can get excited about a close race in Texas or even some good numbers out of Florida. But remember that for Donald Trump, the key is the Great Lakes states.”

“What these internal polls tell us parallels what we’re seeing from publicly done polling in those regions,” said Nichols. “Two things very significant. Number one, there is an energized Democratic base, more energized, it appears, than 2016. And additionally one subset of this that’s a really big deal, major issue for Trump, and that is that in the rural areas where Democrats severely underperformed in 2016, it’s what we are seeing in the public polls and I suspect top line numbers from what we’re seeing in other places suggest we’re seeing rural areas begin to tick back up for Democrats going to that 40 percent number.”

The Blue Wave of 2018 - Democrats voting in sheer anger over the travesty of 2016's results - shows no sign of abating. Voter projections suggest the biggest turnout in 40 years, with about two-thirds of registered voters (67 percent) showing up at the ballot box. (Psst, larger voter turnout favors Dems)

Combine this with the consistent negative polling trump has generated - never cracking 50 percent popularity, mostly hovering above 40 percent like clinging to a lifeline - combined with the reality that the top Democratic candidates are more likable than Hillary - dammit, you haters - and there's a solid chance that trump will be another One-Termer like Carter and Bush the Lesser.

NOTE: I did write in 2017 about the only polling number that mattered was the insanely - and artificially - high positive numbers trump was getting from the GOP voters. But that was over whether or not the rest of the Republican leadership would rein in or punish trump for his follies. Now we're going into an election cycle, where everybody - especially Independent voters who've soured on trump's rule - is in play.

This sort of good news HAS to be tempered by certain realities: 1) Polling is still not an exact science, 2) This doesn't reflect the realities of GOP Voter Suppression efforts, 3) Putin and Russia are primed to hack the 2020 Elections... AGAIN, 4) Never underestimate the Democratic Party's ability to rend itself over the Far Left's obsession with perfection (yes I am looking at you again, BernieBros) 5) The Electoral College is still fucking broken.

Let's just say that in spite of all the bad possibilities, trump loses in 2020. That trump still gets at best the 42 percent of voters from 2016, while the popular Democrat - Biden, or Sanders, or Harris (squee), or Warren (squee) - gets close to 50 percent. That 8 percent difference in voters HAS to translate into winning battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that Hillary lost (in some cases by less than .01 of the votes).

I mean, here's a 2020 map from 270towin.com that has the Democratic candidate winning most of the closest-contested states:

What 2016 should have been...

If we want to include the states where trump eked out wins within 2 to 5 percent, have them flip to the Democrats, the map might look like this:

I grant the likelihood of other close states like Missouri staying Red, I just want to feel better
about Florida flipping back to Blue...

At the furthest extreme, where it's a Hell Yes Blowout with Democrats winning as many states as possible, the map will look like this:

And no, I'm not going to go crazy about thinking EVERY state will flip Blue. This isn't 1984 or 1972 or 1936 where a combination of factors led to such Electoral blowouts. We're too partisan in geographic areas now. What that third map reflects is the most likely result of both the oncoming demographic shifts that terrify the Republicans into voter suppression AND the growing evidence that trump is scaring off the suburban voters. One or two of these states might be wrong - you could trade Georgia perhaps with Missouri, Kansas may still be tribalistic in supporting the GOP, stuff like that - but there's a legitimate trend for Texas and Georgia slipping away, and it's only a matter of time (Republican voters are older and dying, Democratic voters are younger and registering to vote) with the possibility trump is accelerating the demographic shifts.

So, in all three scenarios, how do you think trump will react?

We already know how he was going to react in 2016 if he had lost: He was openly campaigning he would decry the results, claim Hillary cheated, refuse to concede.

In 2020, trump would be worse.

It wouldn't matter if the elections were close or a blowout, trump would never accept it because trump can never admit losing. He'll do everything before - like arresting candidates, disrupting Democratic campaigns, straight up attacks - and after the election - bullying the states into recounting ballots to HIS satisfaction, more arrests, more attacks - to get the results he wants.

What happens then depends mostly on the rest of the Republican Party leadership (and any Red state GOP leaders who are able to do the dirty work). The guys like Mitch McConnell, who by the by is facing re-election in 2020. If they win, they can afford to let trump wither on the vine, because McConnell will retain his Senate powers (it may be unlikely the Republicans retake the House, but if they do... Gods help us) and be free of the headache trump has been. If they lose, they have nothing else to lose but join in his fight to overthrow the voters' wishes.

Even if the unlikely happens - every state votes Democratic, every Electoral College vote goes Blue - trump and the Republicans will never accept it. A combination of denial - they genuinely believe they represent the majority when in fact they're not - and lust for power - the Republicans fear a dominant Democratic government and worry they can't keep obstructing forever.

It's vital that every American vote. It's important that enough Americans vote AGAINST the corruption of the Republican Party and the disaster that is trump.

But don't think this will be a clean fight. The Republicans have been mudslinging for decades now, dragged everything into the mudpit, and willing to commit even worse sins in order to seize power that has never been theirs.

trump is threatening to make this 2020 Election a bloody affair. THAT'S probably the most honest thing he ever says.