Tuesday, June 25, 2019

I Know 2020 Is Coming Soon, I Just Wish We Had a Chance To Sleep In First Before the Primaries Overwhelm Us

I am loathing the non-stop cycle of the "Horse-Race" campaign coverage by the media, so coping with the incoming Democratic primary race is gonna hurt my soul.

Thing is, people are announcing now, have announced, and may still announce their candidacy for the 2020 primaries. So attention must be paid. Candidates must be scrutinized. And my predictions made utterly ridiculous early and often because most of the time I get the wrong impressions and back the wrong candidate. Sigh.

I'm also not thrilled about how 2016 ended up. The Republican primaries fell into madness thanks to a bullying and sadistic con artist in trump going up against a weak field that couldn't walk their rabid fanbase back from the cliff's edge. The Democratic primaries ended up a foregone conclusion of Hillary getting the nom but alienating a Far Left base that backed Bernie to the point that support for the Democrats floundered (it did not help that both the mainstream media - which hated Hillary - and Russian meddling crippled voter support in key states to twist an already-broken Electoral College to flip the election to trump).

 So here we are for 2020, facing the horror of trump being in solid position - despite his own mismanaged administration alienating enough voters - to win re-election (stop screaming, everybody) if the Dems fail to raise voter support again.

If there's any good news, voter turnout in the 2018 midterms hints at increased voter turnout in 2020... as long as media manipulation by the Russians and Hillary-haters doesn't depress it again. But the Democrats need to ensure they nominate a more popular figure than Hillary (even I admitted back in 2016 that Hillary wasn't well-liked... I just believed and hoped she was more well-liked than trump). The good news on that front is that so far nearly every Democratic candidate throwing their hat into the ring are more popular than trump (polling in the 50s while trump flounders around 40 percent).

So who exactly are the candidates (listed alphabetically with highest government office) worth our time and support, America?

By the by, David A Graham at the Atlantic is running a 2020 cheat sheet for candidates, so do keep up with his input please and thanks:

Michael Bennet: Senator, Colorado
Role as: The Guy Running as a Centrist From a State That's Turning Into an Up-and-Coming Progressive Hotbed
If Bennet Wins the Nomination: He had to beat his way past a lot of better-known White guys on the national stage, as well as win over enough Far Left voters who'll be wary of his Establishment creds.
Bennet Can Win It All If: He can get out of the second-tier rut that career political guys like him get stuck in. Right now, he's best suited to be a viable Vice-Presidential choice due to geographic necessity (there hasn't been a Democrat on the major ticket as Prez or Veep that far West since 1964). Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Joe Biden: Vice-President, Delaware
Role as: The Savior Candidate That the Beltway Likes And Then Will Immediately Humiliate Five Minutes Later To Enhance Their "Bipartisan" Cred
If Biden Wins the Nomination: The Progressive Left BernieBros will throw a conniption that he crashed into Bernie's "victory" parade.
Biden Can Win It All If: he can genuinely keep the factions in the Democratic ranks aligned to him, avoid the pitfalls of his constant faux pas screwups, and... and... Sigh. Not gonna happen. Seriously, Joe. Just stay on the sidelines like you did in 2016. You're in a safe spot as Party Elder. Getting into a Presidential campaign you've NEVER shown skill-sets for is a bad idea. You're committing a serious faux pas now regarding your misguided belief that Republicans are bipartisan at heart (NO THEY ARE NOT). Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Cory Booker: Senator, New Jersey
Role as: Obama Part II
If Booker Wins the Nomination: It means he ended up as the compromise candidate between the party faction who fear Bernie would be too socialist and the party faction who fear another woman candidate like Warren or Harris will scare away the general election voters.
Booker Can Win It All If: He genuinely impresses during the primaries as a consensus candidate able to stand as a strong Liberal candidate able to win Progressives to his side. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Steve Bullock: Governor, Montana
Role as: Centrist Dem From a Small Population State
If Bullock Wins the Nomination: It means he won over voters with his Western, small-state populism that may work in rural communities but comes across the urban voting base as uncomfortable Centrism.
Bullock Can Win It All If: Doubtful. I think he's not even invited to the debates, which is sick. In previous election cycles a Governor - especially over amateurs like a motivational speaker - would get invited no matter what. He'll be lucky to be on the VP short list at this rate. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Pete Buttigieg: Mayor of South Bend, Indiana
Role as: That Straight Gay Guy from College who was best friends with your girlfriend but kept it low-key with you at gatherings so it never felt weird one way or the other
If Butiegig Wins the Nomination: It means he won over voters with his Mayor Pete persona and a genuine charisma that rivals Obama's.
Buttiegig Can Win It All If: If can get past voters' squeamishness for a candidate with... no national political leadership (looks at motherfucking trump and shakes head). Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Julian Castro: Secretary of Commerce, Texas
Role as: That High School President Guy whose obvious law school future kinda made him act like a self-centered jerk but he was the one who came through with hiring the garage band for that house party so we're cool with it
If Castro Wins the Nomination: It means he outbid Mayor Pete in the charisma department and outlasted Biden, fellow Texan Beto, and others to the "Heir to Obama" title, as well as getting past the Progressive base wary of anybody who's been deep with the party Establishment as long as he has.
Castro Can Win It All If: He can convince Texas to flip Blue while keeping the 2012 Blue states aligned to the Democrats. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Bill DeBlasio: Mayor, New York
Role as: The Guy Ripping Off Other People's Roles (c'mon boss, Buttigieg beat you to the "Mayor" clique weeks earlier)
If DeBlasio Wins the Nomination: It would cause the Republicans to create fake "Law And Order" ads accusing DeBlasio of committing ALL the crimes in New York City since 1990. Ding Ding!
DeBlasio Can Win It All If: He can convince enough Americans he's done a good job of running the largest city in the United States - which he kind of hasn't - and deserves a shot running the country: Thing is, I don't think he can win re-election in NYC right now anyway. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

John Delaney: Congressman, Maryland
Role as: I Have No Idea
If Delaney Wins the Nomination: I Have No Idea other than the Russians DID hack the elections again.
Delaney Can Win It All If: Is he even invited to the preliminary debates coming up?! I have no idea...

Tulsi Gabbard: Congresswoman, Hawaii
Role as: Insane Sorority Girl Who Sent That Crazy Email
If Gabbard Wins the Nomination: It'll be due to her Syrian buddies hacking the elections as well as the Russians.
Gabbard Can Win It All If: Are you joking? She's actually the least-liked candidate - due to her odd foreign policy stances - on the board. When you're the Either/Or punchline to pop-up Twitter polls with DeBlasio or Bernie, that's never a good sign. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Kirsten Gillibrand: Senator, New York
Role as: The Hillary Replacement (literally) who doesn't have the same baggage Hillary had
If Gillibrand Wins the Nomination: It will be with a party divided between the pro-business Centrists - coming from New York, she kind of can't avoid that - and the socialist Progressives who might view her as just another Establishment figure who "stole" the rightful nomination from You-Know-Who.
Gillibrand Can Win It All If: She can get out of Hillary's shadow in more ways than one and make the goddamn mainstream media give up their disdain of women candidates for the White House. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Kamala Harris: Senator, California
Role as: Stern Neighborhood Mom who ran the PTA but kept the Bible Thumpers from burning everyone's Harry Potter books
If Harris Wins the Nomination: It means she won over voters with her tough-seeming stances and confident campaign style (and probably enough Dems hoping she'll physically punch trump in the mouth first chance she gets). But she's going to have to get past the Progressives who view her background as a hard-charging prosecutor as a detriment rather than view her current calls for reforms as "evolved."
Harris Can Win It All If: The goddamn mainstream media gives up their disdain of women candidates for the White House. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

John Hickenlooper: Governor, Colorado
Role as: That Poor Guy Who Has to Fill Out Legal Forms That Don't Leave Enough Space for Long Last Names
If Hickenlooper Wins the Nomination: the bumper stickers are going to have to be twice as long than usual.
Hickenlooper Can Win It All If: It means he had to beat back a fellow Colorado candidate hogging airspace as well as a field of better-known political figures on the national stage. All joking aside about his name, Hickenlooper is a competent candidate but also the kind that ends up being a second-tier player who usually ends up on the winner's Cabinet roster (and if he's from the Rocky Mountains, that's usually the Interior posting). Sorry. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Jay Inslee: Governor, Washington
Role as: That West Coast Guy Nobody's Heard Of Who Might Make a Decent Veep Candidate but probably won't
If Inslee Wins the Nomination: It means his agenda on sticking to a Climate Change/Eco-Friendly campaign won over the voters.
Inslee Can Win It All If: He adds on Warren's multilevel platform as a broad agenda to win over enough voters to a relative unknown. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Amy Klobucher: Senator, Minnesota
Role as: That Cool Sheriff from the movie Fargo
If Klobucher Wins the Nomination: Her homestyle persona won over voters despite not getting enough attention to her issues.
Klobucher Can Win It All if: The goddamn mainstream media gives up their disdain of women candidates for the White House. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Wayne Messam: Mayor of Miramar, Florida
Role as: Florida Man
If Messam Wins the Nomination: I think the rest of the nation will officially saw the Sunshine State off of the map like Bugs Bunny only for reals this time.
Messam Can Win It All If: Hnnnnn, don't make me laugh. I'm from Florida and even I know this is crazy. He's not making the first debates and nobody on the national level will ever recognize who he is. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Seth Moulton: Congressman, I forgot the state
Role as: Tim Ryan's Scapegoat
If Moulton Wins the Nomination: It means people forgot he tried taking down Pelosi as Speaker of the House and failed miserably.
Moulton Can Win It All If: He can't. He came at the Queen and missed. Nobody at the national stage thinks of him as a player. He missed the debate cutoff, that's how little support he has. He's probably not even on anyone's VP list. I doubt the Russians will hack any election for him.

Beto O'Rourke: Congressman, Texas
Role as: The Lead Guitarist for That Cool Garage Band from your high school/college days that never hit it big, damn the record companies
If O'Rourke Wins the Nomination: He could guarantee flipping Texas blue in 2020 (he barely lost in a midterm, when turnout is habitually lower). But he's got to run on solid Democratic (read: Liberal) platforms. And right now, his policy ideas aren't impressing...
O'Rourke Can Win It All If: he can translate the media love for his charisma into voter support for his centrist track record. But it's unlikely given how often Beto is putting his own foot in his mouth. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Tim Ryan: Congressman, Ohio
Role as: Passive-Aggressive Middle Manager at the corporate office
If Ryan Wins the Nomination: Doubtful. His highest-profile moment had been a palace coup - along with Moulton - to unseat Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker after Dems retook the House in the Midterms. He's not exactly Mr. Popular within his own party. His only saving grace is coming from a key battleground state - Ohio - that makes him a player on the national stage.
Ryan Can Win It All If: He can convince the Democrats and enough Indy/Republican voters his Centrist "Bring Back Jobs" Message can win voters. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Bernie Sanders: Senator, Vermont
Role as: Your Uncle Who Doesn't Understand Why Nobody Wants to Talk About 1970s-style Euro-Socialism at the family barbecue.
If Sanders Wins the Nomination: You're going to hear a lot of Hillary voters complaining before physically holding their noses to vote for him in November
Sanders Can Win It All If: He can convince enough Hillary voters to forgive him the various backstab moves he'd pulled in 2016 - and is pulling now - and to forgive his rabid and tone-deaf base who obsessively hate Centrists more than they do the Far Right. Problem is, of the major candidates Sanders is the one with the most baggage and the most polarizing hate. As much as Progressive turnout for Hillary fizzled, there's a risk of Centrist Democrat/Indy fizzle if Bernie embarrasses or insults them as a bloc. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Elizabeth Warren: Senator, Massachusetts
Role as: The College Prof with the reading syllabus that actually rocks
If Warren Wins the Nomination: The Republicans and the Beltway media will play it up as yet another Northeastern Liberal Elitist (not to mention trump and the GOP likely bashing Warren over her questionable Native ancestry claim from years ago), but it would signal another genuine attempt for Dems to elect a woman President, this time with a candidate with stronger progressive values (and positive polling numbers) than the less-liked Hillary.
Warren Can Win It All If: the goddamn mainstream media gives up their disdain of women candidates for the White House. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Marianne Williamson: Motivational Speaker, Somewhere
Role as: Seriously?
If Williamson Wins the Nomination: It's because the choice came down between her and Gabbard.
Williamson Can Win It All If: Ahem. Lemme go straight to the punchline. Also if the Russians don't hack the elections again.

Andrew Yang: Businessman, New York
Role as: A Technocrat with a single-issue platform and no political power base or national profile
If Yang Wins the Nomination: It would be insane. Granted, he's not as evil as trump, but you'd think the Democratic voting base still cares for such priorities as EXPERIENCE for the job, fer crissakes.
Yang Can Win It All If: The Russians don't hack the elections again.

Did I miss anybody? (Joe Sestack hops into the ring yesterday) OH FUCK YOU I AIN'T REWRITING THIS FOR THE UPTEENTH TIME. This is it, the list for 2020. OKAY?! Okay.

Personally?

I am pining for a Harris victory for several reasons - I agree on her education platform of paying teachers better, which plays into both stronger jobs-based economy AND improving our schools - and have Warren - who's got a plan for that - as my favorite back-up choice. I'm not a fan of Bernie - obviously - but I will vote for him if he wins because trump is evil. I'm not a fan of Biden - man, I keep telling you just stick to the Mentor role you're good at - but will vote for him because trump is evil. I'm kinda saying that for any Democratic nominee... but I do hope the final candidate is a competent, multipurposed and positive figure able to draw more than 50 percent of the electorate to vote Democratic across the board in 2020.

But I'm hoping beyond anything else that the confirmed Democratic ticket is a Harris/Warren or Warren/Harris match. YES. An all-woman ticket. BECAUSE FUCK YOU, INCEL GAMERGATE HATERS. Ahem.

Here's hoping the Russians don't hack the debates as well as the elections.

1 comment:

dinthebeast said...

I've been all in for Warren for a while now, and she just won the Move On straw poll, for what that's worth.
I know she's old and white, but she looks better as a candidate pretty much every time I see her.
She has Hillary's policy chops without the political baggage and she comes across as genuine in a way that Hillary would have won in a landslide if she could have managed on the trail.
She will have a steep climb because she's a woman, and sexism is a much bigger force in our politics than most media admit, but the primary is for picking the candidate you actually like.
As Harry Hamid said, the middle of the road compromise candidate always loses.

-Doug in Oakland