This past week he made the decision to expand his tariff wars - no longer content to smash against the Chinese market and the Euro market and the Canadian market - by interrupting an ongoing trade deal with Mexico with a plan to up tariffs with Mexico by five percent every month until Mexico "stops sending illegals across the border."
trump is pretty much rolling two of his signature issues into one big mess: Convinced Mexico is intentionally sending families and asylum seekers into the United States, trump wants to punish them for it by nuking the multi-billion dollar business we've got going with our closest trading partner. As David A. Graham notes at the Atlantic:
Now comes Trump’s latest move, the 5 percent tariff, which could rise over time if Mexico doesn’t comply. It’s a more modest version of an earlier threat to levy a 25 percent tariff on all Mexican goods, but it has still created chaos. U.S. companies are scrambling to figure out how to deal with the tariff, Republican lawmakers are critical, and Mexico is responding with anger and defiance...
There is the chance that the tariff (or some other trick) will actually succeed, but the prospects seem dim. Agreeing to Trump’s demands would likely be politically untenable for Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Even if it were not, it’s unclear how much ability López Obrador has to stop illegal immigration through Mexico. After all, the American experience shows that border security is not so easy—especially without resorting to violence or inhumane tactics. It’s not even clear what would count as success in Trump’s view; his declaration says that Mexico must “dramatically reduce or eliminate the number of illegal aliens crossing its territory into the United States,” without naming quantitative targets...
This is merely trump at his most basic: An ignorant bully who thinks all he has to do is humiliate his opponents to achieve his success. But he keeps exposing his ignorance when it comes to immigration, and he's showing no understanding of the economic realities of trade and tariff that he's supposed to be good at.
For starters, look back at the first paragraph I quote from Graham. The thing about tariffs is that they are fees (taxes) imposed by companies here in the United States. The foreign countries at the other end are not taxed, they are merely hampered from dealing more openly with U.S. businesses. They'll lose some business and profits... but they can - and have - move on to trading partners in other countries (Hi, Brazil!).
What trump is doing is punishing US, people here at home, which shows up in higher costs for goods that go towards agriculture and manufacturing. Our auto industry in particular is getting killed by trump's tariffs. Like I said, I'm amazed our economy hasn't collapsed yet in the year since trump started his trade wars.
And as always, trump is doing this purely on impulse (or with Stephen Miller whispering his racist agenda into trump's ear) (via CNBC's Kayla Tausche and Tusker Higgins):
President Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary and top trade advisor opposed his surprise plan to impose new tariffs on Mexican imports, according to a source close to the White House who said the idea was pushed by immigration hawk Stephen Miller.
The announcement came as Trump was “riled up” by conservative radio commentary about the recent surge in border crossings, according to the source...
trump is not doing this based on research or the recommendation of informed advisors and experts: he's doing this out of pure rage stoked by those who know how to - and enjoy - pushing trump's buttons.
There is no thought into the consequences. There is no long-term assessment of damages done by these moves. Only the satisfaction of trying to hurt other people.
Problem is, trump and his lackeys are hurting more people than they realize. The impact of many of the border states - on a lot of Red States, period - is pretty severe. Via Andy Kiersz at Business Insider:
Friday morning, stocks were falling in industries like auto manufacturing, which has supply chains distributed across North America that could be seriously interrupted by increased trade barriers between the US and Mexico. Chipotle, which relies on imports of avocados and other produce from Mexico, also saw a drop in its stock price...
If the proposed tariffs come into effect, certain states where trade with Mexico makes up a big part of the economy could be hardest hit.
Big state economies that border Mexico exported a large volume of goods to that country in 2017. Texas had nearly $98 billion in exports, and California had nearly $27 billion. While it doesn't border Mexico, auto-industry supply chains contribute to Michigan's $12.5 billion in exports in that year...
Kiersz' article has two maps showing the imports and exports between Mexico and the states. Texas is the biggest partner on both maps, with other Red States Arizona, Louisiana, and Florida as the next hardest hit (with Ohio, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky in that grouping). The Blue state hit the hardest would be California... which is still not good for the nation overall because that state is one of our biggest money-makers. Hurting Cali's economy hurts us all no matter what.
But does trump truly care?
No.
All trump wants is political wins, in order to back up - even if he lies about it all, he still wants to show off - his ongoing rally cries to his angry racist base.
It doesn't matter if a trade war with Mexico will hit seven or eight Red States. It doesn't matter if none of this stops illegal immigration the way trump wants (Jesus. He's been caging babies in jails for two years, and families are still THAT desperate to get here).
All that matters is that trump wants to think he's winning, wants to force a fight he can't win on the hopes the other side - Mexico again - will flinch. Even when Mexico's smartest move is to let trump self-immolate and try to wait this storm out for a new saner President in 2021.
Gods help us. The way trump is managing things, the illusion of a strong economy is going to end soon. Farmers are still going bankrupt, auto makers are cutting jobs, the stimulus of job creation will dry up, the tax cuts aren't going into families' bank accounts like the GOP promised, personal debts are still scaling upward... something's going to collapse soon and take this all down.
And 62 million trump voters will cheer as they drown in the ashes.
We are so very royally extravagantly fucked.
Update 6/8/19: So at the last minute trump was able to wrangle out a deal with Mexico to avert his threat to issue tariffs. Thing is, it seems the agreed-to deal was settled months ago, and trump's claim that he is forcing Mexico to buy more American grain from farmers is a goddamn lie. So of course trump is going to run with this for another month as a "victory" until he causes another goddamn controversy.
No comments:
Post a Comment