Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Just Say "Inverted Yield Curve" To a Financier And Watch Them Scream

There's been growing reports over the past three months of red flags regarding the U.S. economy. 



And then, just yesterday we get the news that the short-term (two year) bonds are getting higher interest rates than the long-term (ten year) bonds. It's something called an "Inverted Yield Curve," meaning bond investors believe in getting their money now instead of later, suggesting a recession is unavoidable. 

The last time there was an Inverted Yield Curve? 2007, and all the fun THAT led to.


The investors get it. They have to, it's how they keep their wallets full. There's a recession coming and it's no longer a question When it's a question of How Soon and How Painful.

A replay of the 2007 global economic collapse - only this time thanks to tariffs and Brexit - is quite likely.

1 comment:

dinthebeast said...

Krugman says it's not dire yet, but it may be headed that way.
And not all of it is Fergus' doing; China's economy is slowing down, as is Germany's, and we've been in the longest stretch of continuous private sector growth ever, so a downturn is bound to happen sooner or later.
Basically, the big crash a decade ago carved out a massive amount of room for growth just to recover to the problems we were facing in 2007, and trying to take credit (or blame) for that growth, or the lack thereof, is somewhat disingenuous.
It was bound to grow back, policy or no policy, like the countries in Europe who lack their own currency and had to suffer through (mostly) German imposed austerity, and are finally getting back to normal (kind of).
Which, of course, the Austerians are claiming as vindication without accounting for the goddamn decade of unnecessary suffering their citizens endured in the service of their ideology.
So, yeah, having Fergus at the helm of the economy is scary as hell, made all the more so by the cranks and morons he calls his economic team. Is it comforting that he doesn't listen to them when their advice is so bad?
Not really. Some things need to be done right, and should something really bad happen, there are no competent economists there to know what to do about it.

-Doug in Oakland