The Pro-Choice News Out of Kansas

I don't want to always be "doom and gloom" around here, so when a bright ray of hope shines through I'd like to make a few comments about it (well, also refer to other people's comments to reinforce my own arguments, but that's how I roll son).

It's taken me a few days to blog about this development, but after all the bad news about Republicans banning abortion and trying to punish women across every Red state they control we've finally got one state where the majority of voters who are pro-choice pushed back. 

While Kansas has been a reliably Red state for ages - I have a personal joke that Kansas is so old-school Republican they make Ohio look Blue - it's also a state that had written a personal rights clause into their state constitution that their supreme court back in 2019 ruled meant women had a right to choose an abortion if they needed one. Angry that they couldn't punish women as soon as the U.S. Supreme Court nuked Roe with their Dobbs ruling, the state Republicans pushed a referendum onto the 2022 midterm ballots that would have cut that part of their state constitution and allow the state legislature to issue their anti-abortion laws.

And just to make sure not enough people would vote on it, they set the referendum along with the primary election cycle of the midterm, when usually only the party voters turn up (meaning a low-enough turnout to ensure the GOP plurality dominating Kansas politics would cast their likely YES vote to gut the abortion protection).

Funny thing. It turns out a lot of voters in Kansas turned up to vote on the referendum, a lot more than expected, and enough of them - not just Democrats by the looks of things, but also the Indy voters AND enough Kansas Republicans - voted NO to stop the ballot from passing. I shouldn't say "enough" as though it was a close vote: It was a DAMN BLOWOUT (it was 63-39 percent at one point but it's settled to 59-41 percent) in a clear sign Kansas voters across the spectrum wanted to keep abortion a legal right.

I could go into more detail, but Rani Molla over at Vox went there and so let's refer to her findings:

More than 900,000 Kansans showed up to the polls to vote on the state’s abortion referendum. That’s the biggest turnout for a primary election in the state’s history, according to the Kansas Secretary of State’s office. That number is closer to what we’d expect to see in a general election turnout, which is always vastly higher than primaries. And it suggests we could also see high turnout in upcoming primaries where abortion is on the docket...

Molla also included a number of charts, so let's take a look:

This is for primary cycle turnout. Reportedly, the Kansas Sec of State was expecting turnout around 36 percent, which would have matched the 2020 primary numbers. But look at that chart: 2022 turnout at near 50 percent of registered voters saw the greatest jump between 2-year election gaps. Something really got the voter turnout to spike higher than usual.

Molla provided some interesting context by pointing out the voter makeup of Kansas itself:

Seriously, I'm not kidding about Kansas being a Republican stronghold. Hell, If the "Unaffiliated" voting bloc formed its own party, it would put Democrats in THIRD place in that state.

So you would think that given the dominance of Republican voters would equate to dominance of conservative thought (if you consider the Indy voters between equally divided in leaning either way), and that conservative thought would equate to being anti-abortion enough to vote YES.

And yet, they did not.

Because, if it's been noted here already, a majority of Americans - a number that crosses into Republican ranks just a bit - are pro-choice when push comes to shove.

Ever since the Dobbs decision dropped, reports about the horrors of the Far Right war on women's rights have gone up. The reality that Republican leaders are using their state powers to force-birth pregnancies on 10-year-old rape victims. Stories about how women are denied medications because the pharmacies and doctors issuing them might get charged for triggering miscarriages. The growing realization that GOP-controlled states are passing "No Travel" bans that would intrude on women's privacy rights even when they're not pregnant.

In her Vox article, Molla points to evidence that women were key to the voter turnout against the referendum:

The referendum in particular seems to have brought out women, who are considered to be most affected by abortion laws. As Tom Bonier, CEO of a Democratic data firm TargetSmart, pointed out, the share of new Kansas registrants who were women skyrocketed after news of US Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision.

The Dobbs decision engaged women in Kansas to an unprecedented degree.

This chart shows the percent of new registrants in the state who were women (as a 7 day average). Note the spike after the Dobbs decision leaked, and huge jump after the Supreme Court handed it down. pic.twitter.com/pvi3WpuR86

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) August 3, 2022

One of the concerns before this conservative Supreme Court made their move to end Roe turned on what might happen, what might the public's response be to women losing a personal right. Word is Chief Justice Roberts wanted to rein in Alito's wording (which made it an absolute ban) to create some wriggle room where reasonable exceptions like allowing it for cases of rape/incest and "health of mother" were involved. Which was why Alito's first draft got leaked, because someone in SCOTUS wanted to make sure the hard-liner stance stayed firm.

Well, now we're seeing what the public's response could be. In even the Reddest of Republican states, a solid majority of voters want to protect abortion as a right. Before Dobbs, there may have been a number of moderate/centrist-leaning Americans who disapproved of abortion but saw it as necessary to protect at-risk women suffering life-threatening situations, and to protect rape victims from the psychological (and for pre-teens, physical) harms of forcing them to birth. (Note: I do not want to underscore the reality that women SHOULD HAVE their personal right to choose no matter what, but I am pointing out how moderates view this issue, where they focus on guaranteeing those exceptions...) By denying the reality that there are times when abortion is a necessity to save the life of the mother, the Far Right have likely pushed Indy/Moderate voters to the side of Pro-Choice. As well as driving away whatever Moderate Republicans were still left after all the RINO purging.

Even in Red States like Kansas, alienating those Indy voters - who may now give Democrats a fighting chance to win statewide elections - as well as driving up voter registration for women - who may have tuned out political issues before, but now realize they've been turned into second-class breeding stock - can well add to the likelihood of another midterm Blue Wave much like 2018.

Everyone, this is where voter turnout matters. To every Democrat suffering in Republican-controlled states, you have a chance to turn the tables. To every Independent/No-Party Affiliate voter out there, you have an opportunity to show up and vote the anti-abortion bastards out of office. To every Pro-Choice Republican still out there - and yes, the Kansas referendum proves you're there - you have every reason to turn against a Republican party that no longer respects you or the women in your lives.

Get the damn vote out, America. If you believe women are equal, if you believe women have the right to control their own selves, if you believe Roe should be restored as the law of the land, YOU GOT TO VOTE DAMMIT, vote for every Democrat, vote against every Republican, VOTE VOTE VOTE.

Your vote is your power. Republicans are trying to deny you that power. Don't let them. 

VOTE VOTE VOTE.